Trump meets with Europe

Summary

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Episode Overview

Title: Trump meets with Europe
Podcast: Today, Explained (Vox)
Date: August 18, 2025
Hosts: Sean Rameswaram & Noel King
Main Theme:
This episode explores President Trump’s attempt to negotiate an end to Russia’s war in Ukraine. Amid shifting strategies, Trump hosts Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and, notably, a delegation of top European leaders in Washington. The episode dissects the failed Alaska Trump-Putin summit, the emerging peace deal framework, Europe’s prominent role, and the stakes for all involved.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

Background: Context for the D.C. Summit

• Zelenskyy’s Visit and European Delegation: President Zelenskyy returns to Washington, D.C., joined by significant European heads of state—a notable show of solidarity and intent.
• Recent Trump-Putin Alaska Summit: Trump originally sought a ceasefire but reversed course after meeting with Putin, aligning suddenly with Russia’s stance.

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1. The Alaska Summit: Putin Outsmarts Trump

(02:23–05:04)

• Julia Ioffe (Russia expert, Puck):
  • Trump saw himself as a "dealmaker-in-chief" (02:46), but was outmaneuvered by Vladimir Putin, who is "much savvier, much more seasoned." (02:58)
  • Putin offered Trump the lure of a “big, big peace deal,” convincing him to defer a practical ceasefire—something beneficial to Russia’s ongoing military strategy. (03:29–05:04)
  • Notable quote:

    "Trump fell for the much shinier object, not realizing that the Russians aren't just going to agree to it ... They love dragging things out." — Julia Ioffe (04:02)

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2. The Shape of a Possible Peace Deal

(05:04–07:05)

• Proposed Deal Elements:

  • Ukraine cedes the contested regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, which Russia has failed to seize outright since 2014.
  • Russia relinquishes smaller holdings in Sume and Kharkiv.
  • U.S. would formally recognize Crimea as Russian.
  • Some U.S. sanctions would be lifted.
  • Ukraine forgoes NATO membership in exchange for vague security “guarantees.”
  • Critical flaw: Russia insists security guarantees include China and Belarus, who could veto any collective defense activation, rendering guarantees toothless.

• Quote:

  "It's not much of a security guarantee at all." — Julia Ioffe (07:00)

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3. The Administration’s Framing & “Progress”

(07:05–08:48)

• U.S. officials (e.g., Marco Rubio, Steve Witkoff) describe “progress” without specifics.

• Julia Ioffe explains this means the parties are at least negotiating, not fighting in silence, but the terms might favor Russia and present serious risks for Ukraine.

• Quote:

  "It's progress from that they're at least talking about some kind of actual peace settlement and the parameters of it. The question is: does it actually lead to an end in the fighting and a kind of durable and just peace, or will Ukraine be sold down the river?" — Julia Ioffe (08:29)

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4. Zelenskyy’s Urgency and European Muscle

(08:48–11:16, 17:49–21:32)

• Zelenskyy attends the D.C. summit with several top European leaders (President von der Leyen, NATO’s Mark Rutte, UK PM Starmer, Macron, Meloni, among others) to ensure Ukraine’s interests aren’t overlooked or bartered away by global powers.

• There’s a real worry in Kyiv that the fate of Ukraine could be decided “over Ukraine’s head.”

• Oliver Carroll (Kyiv correspondent, The Economist):

  • The European delegation is “a show of European muscle.” By 2025, Europe has surpassed the U.S. in total aid (military, economic, humanitarian).

• Quote:

  "Europe, wider Europe, has in fact provided far more support to Ukraine than the US." — Oliver Carroll (21:03)

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5. Motivations and Stakes for Europe

(21:32–23:55)

• Europe is much more directly threatened by Russia’s actions—both geographically and geopolitically.

• The war threatens the post–Cold War European security order. There’s concern that even with a “peace” in Ukraine, Russia may redirect aggression toward Europe in coming years.

• Quote:

  "The fear is that ... Putin will be able to redirect his energies ... and then start to chip away at European defenses." — Oliver Carroll (22:40)

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6. Transatlantic Trust & Fragmentation

(23:55–25:15)

• European leaders’ faith in the U.S. alliance is shaken. Britain maintains a close partnership, but elsewhere there’s broad unease over America’s unpredictable approach under Trump.

• Quote:

  “These aren’t allies that we can really rely on.” — Oliver Carroll (24:56)

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7. Ukrainian Public Mood: Tense Equilibrium

(18:03–19:18, 25:15–27:33)

• Inside Kyiv:

  • After nearly four years of war, the mood is anxious but somewhat resigned; survival is the dominating rhythm.
  • Some citizens are ready to compromise, others demand to hold out—most would resist major territorial concessions unless peace is truly guaranteed.

• Zelenskyy’s Dilemma:

  • He faces intense pressure: accept a lopsided peace and risk domestic upheaval, or reject concessions and risk losing support from allies.
  • This is “the nearest we've been to a peace deal” since hostilities escalated—but the window could soon close.

• Notable exchange:

  "You're gambling with the lives of millions of people. You're gambling with World War Three." — Volodymyr Zelenskyy (19:59)
  "He knows that the Ukrainians will not be ready and will not accept ... giving more Ukrainian territory without a very clear understanding of how that means the war would stop." — Oliver Carroll (26:31)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Trump’s perception:

  "Because that's what I do, I make deals." — Donald Trump (02:55)

• On Russian negotiating tactics:

  "They love getting in the weeds, they love dragging things out ... This is going to take a long, long time." — Julia Ioffe (04:02)

• On the Alaska summit’s visuals:

  "It’s one thing to invite him ... but to see the Russian presidential jet land, to see uniformed American troops ... rolling out a red carpet for a man who has an ICC warrant—OK. It’s another thing for Trump to talk about Putin glowingly ... It was frankly pretty embarrassing." — Julia Ioffe (12:03)

• On Europe’s resolve:

  "This is a problem on Europe’s doorstep ... Clearly, the immediate threats to security will be felt by countries immediately neighboring Ukraine." — Oliver Carroll (22:15)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

| Timestamp | Segment Description | |--------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 00:01–00:23 | Zelenskyy recounts tense history with Trump | | 02:23–05:04 | Julia Ioffe analyzes Trump-Putin Anchorage summit | | 05:04–07:05 | Outline of the tentative peace deal, pitfalls, and “security guarantees” | | 08:48–11:16 | Zelenskyy’s purpose in D.C., dangers of outside deals | | 17:49–21:32 | Oliver Carroll on Kyiv’s mood, Zelenskyy's European delegation | | 21:32–23:55 | European stakes, proximity to Russia, long-term fears | | 23:55–25:15 | Transatlantic trust and alliance strains | | 25:15–27:33 | Ukrainian public mood, Zelenskyy’s tough balancing act |

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Takeaways

• Trump’s attempts at deal-making have backfired, with Putin gaining diplomatic ground.
• Proposed peace terms could amount to major Ukrainian territorial concessions in exchange for weak guarantees.
• Europe is stepping up, both in political presence and actual aid.
• There is a crisis of trust between the U.S. and its European allies.
• Ukrainians, especially Zelenskyy, are in an agonizing position—peace appears closer, but possibly at an unacceptable cost.

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Tone:
Candid, urgent, and at times wry—emphasizing the gravity of political maneuvering and human stakes.

For Listeners:
This episode is essential for understanding the fast-moving situation around the Ukraine war, the changing roles of the U.S. and Europe, and why this week’s high-stakes meetings in Washington could determine not just Ukraine’s fate, but also the future of European security.

Transcript

[Noel King]

The first time Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met President Trump in the White House. It didn't go well during the war.

[Volodymyr Zelenskyy]

Everybody has problems, even you. But you have nice ocean and don't feel now, but you will feel it in the future. God bless. You don't know that. God bless. God bless. You are not war. Don't tell us what we're gonna feel.

[Noel King]

Today Zelenskyy visits again. This time, seven European leaders are coming too. Why the show of force?

[Oliver Carroll]

They're not coming here tomorrow to keep Zelenskyy from being.

[Noel King]

Oh, okay. Over the course of just another MANIC Monday at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, President Trump will meet Zelensky and company to try to settle Russia's war in Ukraine. And on Today Explained from Vox, we're going to tell you what to keep an eye on JD Vance. Keep an eye on JD Vance.

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[Julia Yoffe]

Sivodny I sto no, this is Today Explained.

[Noel King]

President Trump went into his Alaska summit with Vladimir Putin on Friday saying he wanted a ceasefire. But when that meeting ended a few hours later, he changed his mind. To find out why, we called Julia Yoffe. She's a founding partner of Puck, she's a longtime Russia hand, and she's author of the book Motherland about Russian women. Julia, what ended up happening at that meeting?

[Julia Yoffe]

I think what ended up happening is that for all of Donald Trump's insistence that he is the dealmaker in chief.

[Volodymyr Zelenskyy]

Because that's what I do, I make deals.

[Julia Yoffe]

He was going in against a much savvier much more seasoned opponent.

[Oliver Carroll]

The current.

[DeleteMe Advertisement Voice]

Administration, which, as everyone knows, is making, in my opinion, quite energetic and sincere efforts to stop hostilities, stop the crisis.

[Julia Yoffe]

And he was going in thinking, oh, we're kind of friends, we get each other, we get along.

[Volodymyr Zelenskyy]

There's a good respect level on both sides, and I think something's going to come of it. I notice he's bringing a lot of.

[Julia Yoffe]

Business people from Russia, whereas Vladimir Putin certainly does not see Donald Trump that way. And there was basically a bait and switch. I think. I think Vladimir Putin told him, look, you can get a ceasefire now, but those things fall apart all the time. Not mentioning, of course, that usually it's Russia violating the many ceasefires that over the last 11 years have been implemented in Ukraine since Russia first invaded in 2014, and said, look, we could get a much bigger peace deal. Bigger deal, end the whole war. Big, big peace deal. And I think, I'm guessing that Donald Trump fell for the much shinier object, not realizing that the Russians aren't just going to agree to it like that with a snap of the fingers. They love getting in the weeds, they love dragging things out. Diploma. So I don't know that Donald Trump realizes that this is going to take a long, long time, and that he gave Putin kind of exactly what he wanted, which is a legitimization of his maximalist demands, a walking away from a ceasefire that would freeze Russia's momentum on the front and give Ukraine some time to breathe and regroup and allow its citizens to stop being killed in their homes, at least temporarily, in favor of this receding horizon, which was the thing that Donald Trump got so frustrated to begin with.

[Noel King]

Let's go toward the outlines of the deal. So Trump goes in saying, we want a ceasefire. He comes out saying, we don't want a ceasefire, which, as you point out, is the same thing that Putin has said, no, no, you don't need a ceasefire. What is on the table here.

[Julia Yoffe]

What seems is on the table is Ukraine having to give up control of the Donetsk and Luhansk territor, which Russia has, by the way, not been able to capture militarily despite trying to actively since 2014. In exchange, Russia would give up the little pieces of the Sume and Kharkiv regions that it holds. Apparently on the table is formal US Recognition of Crimea as Russian and a lifting of some, at least, US sanctions and some kind of security guarantee for Ukraine that does, that doesn't involve NATO membership. So kind of a forswearing of NATO membership for Ukraine in exchange for some kind of security guarantee. From the reporting I've seen, it seems that on the security guarantee, there's already kind of a poison pill put in place that the Russians told the Americans that they want China and Belarus and their own allies as part of as the some of the parties guaranteeing Ukraine's security. And you can just imagine that if they're two of the guarantors of Ukraine's security and Ukraine says, hey, we were just attacked by Russia and China and Belarus have veto power and say, no, you weren't, and therefore the collective defense that's promised in these security guarantees doesn't kick in. It's not much of a security guarantee at all.

[Noel King]

I want to talk about the way the administration is framing this. So Marco Rubio goes on ABC's this Week on Sunday, and he says progress was made, but he doesn't give any detail.

[Oliver Carroll]

Both sides are going to have to.

[DeleteMe Advertisement Voice]

Give and both sides should expect to.

[Oliver Carroll]

Get something from this.

[Noel King]

Steve Witkoff on CNN more or less said the same.

[Volodymyr Zelenskyy]

We made so much progress at this meeting with regard to all the other ingredients necessary for a peace deal that President Trump pivoted to that place.

[Noel King]

Do we have a sense of what the administration means when it says progress?

[Julia Yoffe]

It is progress in the sense that they're talking, and it's progress in the sense that it's not just Ukraine and Russia are fighting, nobody's coming to the table. And Putin and Zelenskyy are playing this game vis a vis Trump of trying to show Trump that the other guy's the problem, the other guy's the impediment to peace.

[Oliver Carroll]

You've now been in office for five months and five days. Why have you not been able to end the Ukraine war?

[Volodymyr Zelenskyy]

Because it's more difficult than people would have any idea. Vladimir Putin has been more difficult, frankly. I had some problems with Zelensky. You may have read about him and.

[Julia Yoffe]

Trump being frustrated with Putin and threatening him with sanctions.

[Volodymyr Zelenskyy]

I don't have to say there will be very severe consequences.

[Julia Yoffe]

So it's progress from that. They're at least talking about something more productive in the sense that they're talking about some kind of actual peace settlement and the parameters of it. The question is, does it actually lead to an end in the fighting and a kind of durable and just peace, or will Ukraine be sold down the river?

[Noel King]

And this is obviously a thing that Ukraine was deeply concerned about. The big controversy over the summit was that Zelensky was not there. And then, and then kind of came as a surprise. We hear that Zelensky will come to D.C. he will bring a handful, but a significant handful of European leaders with him. We are talking before he and Trump meet this afternoon. But what do you think Zelensky is coming to Washington for?

[Julia Yoffe]

I think Zelensky is coming to Washington to make sure that he has heard that Ukraine's interests are taken into account. Because from the very beginning, from the fall and winter of the 2021, 2022, Putin has been insisting that Ukraine does not need to be at the table, that the two big guys, Russia and the US can just negotiate over Ukraine's head, carve things up and settle it between the two of them. Right. Because Russia does not see Ukraine as a serious country. It sees it as a kind of vassal of the US that actually should be part of Russia. That. Now, I think Zelensky's coming to Washington to make sure that he's heard, to make sure that Putin and Trump don't decide something about Ukraine without Ukraine, without hearing that the security guarantees need to be real, without this kind of poison pill, to make sure that this territory isn't just given away for nothing. Because remember, you know, he is the president of Ukraine and he is responsible to the Ukrainian people. And we've seen what happens in territories that Russia captures from Ukraine. People are disappeared, tortured, killed. These places become, you know, the Russian government sends in its vast repressive apparatus and also it's corruption. And these are not pleasant places for people to live once Russia takes over. And, you know, in ceding control of these territories, they're also leaving their own people behind. I think that's also very important to understand.

[Noel King]

At the end of the day, do you think the summit between Trump and Putin in Alaska was a win for Russia, A win for Trump? Who, who came out of that the victor?

[Julia Yoffe]

The Russian leader, much like the American president, sees things as a zero sum game. And so if one side is winning, then the other side must be losing. And Friday's summit in Anchorage was definitely a win for Putin. I mean, it's one thing to invite him and welcome him onto American soil. It's another to see it, to see the Russian presidential jet land, to see uniformed American troops literally on their hands and knees rolling out a red carpet for a man who has an ICC warrant out for his arrest for war crimes. Okay. It's another thing for Trump to talk about Putin glowingly. It's another for him to clap for him as he stands there and waits on the red carpet. Then at the press conference, Putin spoke first, which apparently took White House staff and the press that was there by surprise. And this was very much like Putin spoke first because the boss speaks first. It was a very weird moment and he didn't give Trump what he wanted. He was able to trick him onto his own side and get him to take his position without Trump getting much of anything. I think it was frankly pretty embarrassing. And given the coverage of it on Russian state media and in loyalist telegram channels, I think the Russians certainly see it as a win for, for Vladimir Putin. It's also an unforced error. Trump didn't have to do this. He didn't have to invite Putin. He didn't have to set the expectations this high. I mean, Putin himself has warned him. He said when Trump was talking about how disappointed he was in Putin, Putin offered a kind of offhand remark without naming Trump. He said, you know, disappointment comes from inflated expectations. This was a failure of Trump's own making. It was completely unforced and unprovoked and it didn't have to be this way.

[Noel King]

Julia Yoffe of Puck, her book is Motherland. Thanks, Julia.

[Julia Yoffe]

Thank you, Noel.

[Noel King]

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[Oliver Carroll]

Com.

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[Oliver Carroll]

I'm Oliver Carroll. I'm the Kyiv correspondent for the Economist.

[Noel King]

All right, so Volodymyr Zelenskyy is in Washington today. You are in Kyiv, where he normally is. What's it like in Kyiv right now? Is everyone talking about this?

[Oliver Carroll]

So nearly four years of war has put the population into a certain rhythm. And it's been heightened by the ups and downs of Trump. And that rhythm is basically what I would call survival. The most sort of popular psychologist in these parts is Viktor Frankl, a famous Holocaust survivor whose basic treatise was about focusing on the day, not looking too far ahead, and not being too despondent about the possibilities. So in Kyiv right now, there is a real worry. It took a little while to filter through, but at the same time, you know, this war has been going on for nearly four years, and there is a sense among the population and among the politicians that it can't go on for much longer. Obviously, they want a peace on reasonable terms, but they're seeing, you know, the outlines of something. Although at the moment, a lot of the most recent news goes against Ukraine's interests. I was talking to a contact yesterday, and he talked about the idea of this being like the film's speed. So everything is very dynamic. There is a sense things are speeding up. But the worry is that the bus has gone out of control.

[Noel King]

All right, so we hear the news that Zelenskyy is coming to D.C. and then we hear that, like, half of the important people in Europe are also coming with him. Who else is going to be in Washington this week?

[Oliver Carroll]

Right. So this is perhaps the most surprising thing, is that after being invited to Washington, the thing in everyone's memory is what happened in February when essentially Volodymyr Zelenskyy was attacked left, right and center. And he obviously took the bait to a certain extent, but there is a real desire to avoid that kind of scene.

[Volodymyr Zelenskyy]

You're not in a good position. You don't have the cards right now with us, you start having cards right now, you don't have to miss a brother. You're gambling with the lives of millions of people. You're gambling with World War Three. You're gambling with World War Three. And what you said they should have.

[DeleteMe Advertisement Voice]

Have you said thank you once this entire meeting?

[Noel King]

No, in this entire meeting, have you said thank you?

[Volodymyr Zelenskyy]

You went to.

[Oliver Carroll]

So what's happening is he's coming with several other European leaders, from the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, to the head of NATO, Mark Rutte, to British Prime Minister Keir Starmer Macron Meloni. It really is the list of everyone who is. Who has been supporting Ukraine. So it is to a certain extent to make sure that that kind of visual, that optic in which only Vladimir Putin wins, isn't repeated. But at the same time, it is a show of European muscle. The bottom line is that Europe, wider, Europe has in fact provided far more support to Ukraine than the U.S. in fact, in early 2025, Europe had overtaken the U.S. in military aid contributions alone. And that isn't including, of course, the macroeconomic and the humanitari. And though the US Is taking a lead in making some of the decisions and some of the calls on what will happen in Ukraine and in Europe, it's ultimately Europe which will be funding the bill.

[Noel King]

Now, one thing that has come up time and again throughout this war is that the United States is separated from Russia by a nice ocean and that much of Europe is in fact, not. So tell me, in addition to funding the war, what is at stake for Europe as Russia, you know, continues this war in Ukraine?

[Oliver Carroll]

I mean, obviously the narrative of recent days has been, of course, that Alaska is very close to Russia. But let's put that aside.

[Noel King]

Recent years, in fact, the last decade.

[Oliver Carroll]

Or so, maybe, indeed, indeed there are.

[Julia Yoffe]

Next door neighbors and you can actually see Russia from land here in Alaska. And I can see, see Russia from my house.

[Oliver Carroll]

I mean, you know, of course this is, this is a problem on Europe, Europe's doorstep. And this is a problem in the first instance, which is threatening the European post Cold War order. And, and clearly the immediate threats to security will be felt by the countries with immediately neighboring Ukraine. And it's no coincidence that these states have been the ones that leading the charge to arm and defend Ukraine from the start, Poland, the Baltic states and so on. Now there is a question as to whether the Russians are in fact serious about a conflict with NATO in the long term. Right at the moment, they wouldn't really stand a chance. But it seems quite clear that five or six or seven years down the line, you know, the possibility of some kind of hybrid threat on the eastern flanks of Europe and NATO, that's a real possibility. So the fear is that even if the invasion, the war in Ukraine is settled, then Putin will be able to redirect his energies after all the lessons and all the efficiencies which he will have gained from this pretty bloody and tragic war, and then start to chip away at European defenses. That's the fear. Realistic it is. I mean, I think probably we'll only be able to see in the future whether it will be a strategy to essentially deflect the West's economic attention, when perhaps Russia will be looking at different opportunities in the Middle east and so on and so forth. We don't know. But it's certainly a clear possibility.

[Noel King]

Does Europe coming into these meetings today, does Europe trust the United States as an ally, we have done quite a few things in the last eight months that might be viewed as breeding or engendering mistrust. Where does the trust stand right now?

[Oliver Carroll]

Well, yeah, I think it really depends who in Europe you're speaking to. I mean, as far as the Brits are concerned, well, the policy is to engage wherever they can. And we still believe our security cooperation is the closest in the world. And that's certainly true on. And security intelligence contacts and so on. It's too close a relationship, and it's too integrated a relationship not to. To try and embrace. And that's certainly the policy, and it's been shown to have some. Some success. I mean, whether. I mean, that view is not universal across Europe, there's a real sense of, you know, trepidation that the sort of policy approach, and it isn't a fragmented policy approach of the US to put it mildly, some would say chaotic and completely absent. I'm trying to be politically correct here, but there is a sense that, you know, the Americans under the Trump administration, these aren't allies that we can really rely on. Hmm.

[Noel King]

And, of course, at the end of the day, there are real lives at stake here in Ukraine fighting a defensive war. When you ask Ukrainians what they make of President Trump saying, you know, there are more meetings to come, and the Kremlin saying, saying, look, we have red lines and we simply will not back down. And Ukraine saying, well, guess what? Neither will we. Are people there hopeful? Civilians? Are they hopeful that this is coming to an end anytime soon?

[Oliver Carroll]

I mean, what is clear is the country is playing in different gears. There is one part of the country which is very committed to the war effort, and without it, the war effort would stop. There are other parts of the country which are less committed and more ready to make concessions. What's cleared in General is that Mr. Zelensky is in a very difficult situation. If he agrees to everything that Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin appear to have scribbled down the back of a cigarette box, he will provoke a revolution or at least very fierce protests. He knows that the Ukrainians will not be ready and will not accept, in broad, I would say 80, 90% giving more Ukrainian territory without a very clear understanding of how that means the war would stop. So he has this on the one side, but at the same time, you know, this is a man under extreme pressure. This is probably the nearest we've been to a peace deal since the beginning of the war and the Istanbul process. And certainly, I understand that those people are having contact with the Russian side right now, believe that, you know, these are the stronger signals the Russians have been have been sending, that now might be the good time to sort of try and find some points of interaction. So he has this sense that, you know, it might only be this window, opportunity. It's open right now. It might not be open for long. And so this piece, if that is what it is, might need to be seized right now. So it's a really tight, tight line he has to walk.

[Noel King]

Oliver Carroll is Kyiv correspondent for Leading magazine the Economist. Denise Guerra and Rebecca Ibarra produce today's show. Aminah El Saadi is our editor. Laura Bullard and Avishai Artsy check the facts. Andrea, Kristen's daughter, is our only engineer. Patrick Boyd is here, too. I'm Noel King. It's today. Expl Sam.