Trump trolls the neighbours

Summary

Today, Explained - Episode: "Trump Trolls the Neighbours"
Released on December 16, 2024
Hosts: Sean Rameswaram and Noel King
Part of the Vox Media Podcast Network

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Introduction

In this episode of Today, Explained, hosts Sean Rameswaram and Noel King delve into the geopolitical tensions stirred by former President Donald Trump’s recent rhetoric aimed at neighboring countries Canada and Mexico. The discussion navigates through Trump’s proposed economic and military actions, the responses from Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, and the broader implications for North American relations.

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Trump’s Tariff Threats and Rhetoric

The episode opens with Sean Rameswaram highlighting Trump’s announcement of a 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico, intended to be enacted on day one of his potential administration:

• Sean Rameswaram [00:00]: “Past and future President Donald Trump isn't being very nice to our neighbors. He said he'd drop 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico on day one.”

Trump justifies the tariffs by linking them to border security concerns:

• Kayleigh Glenn [00:15]: “This tariff will remain in effect until such time as drugs, in particular fentanyl and all illegal aliens stop this invasion of our country.”

This aggressive stance has provoked strong reactions, with Canadian and Mexican officials feeling compared in derogatory terms:

• Sean Rameswaram [00:26]: “That threat has Canadians saying, how dare.”
• Kayleigh Glenn [00:28]: “You compare us to Mexico.”

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Mexican Response and Concerns

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum expresses deep anxiety over Trump’s potential policies, emphasizing Mexico's economic dependence on the US market:

• Claudia Sheinbaum [04:23]: “So Trump posted on Truth Social that he would put a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada if they didn't stop the flow of migrants and fentanyl over the border.”

Sheinbaum warns that such tariffs could plunge Mexico into a recession, given that 80% of Mexico's exports are directed to the United States:

• Claudia Sheinbaum [07:12]: “Claudia Sheinbaum is the new president... She's a scientist, much less charismatic, obviously female. And there's been a lot of questions about whether she will be able to establish the bond that Lopez Obrador had with Trump.”

Regarding military threats, Sheinbaum doubts any unilateral US military action would be tolerated or sanctioned by Mexico:

• Claudia Sheinbaum [03:28]: “...we would go to the extent of cutting off their energy... I don't want this to happen.”

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Canadian Reactions and Potential Retaliations

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has taken proactive steps to engage with Trump in hopes of mitigating the tariff threats:

• Justin Trudeau [18:37]: “Prime Minister Trudeau himself took a trip to Mar a Lago to meet with President Elect Trump...”

However, provincial leaders like Ontario Premier Doug Ford have signaled possible retaliatory measures, such as cutting off Ontario's energy supply to specific US states:

• Claudia Sheinbaum [19:37]: “...cutting off their energy going down to Michigan, going down to New York State and over to Wisconsin.”

Trudeau emphasizes the importance of maintaining strong US-Canada relations due to their intertwined economies:

• Justin Trudeau [21:34]: “Renegotiated NAFTA into the USMCA was widely perceived to have included terms that were viewed as quite preferable for the United States.”

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Economic Implications and the Boomerang Effect

The potential imposition of tariffs is expected to have reciprocal negative impacts on the US economy:

• Claudia Sheinbaum [11:14]: “...pickup trucks sold in the US could be $3,000 more expensive with these tariffs because a lot of the pickups and, or the parts are made in Mexico...”

Additionally, the interconnectedness of North American supply chains means that tariffs could disrupt manufacturing and consumer goods:

• Claudia Sheinbaum [10:10]: “Oreo cookies are made using US Wheat. Mexican beer is made using barley from Idaho and Montana.”

Sheinbaum warns that unilateral military actions would not only ruin bilateral relations but also create economic chaos:

• Claudia Sheinbaum [11:14]: “...it would be pretty chaotic for both countries, particularly in their economies.”

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Historical Context and Precedents

The episode reflects on Trump's previous actions during his first term, where he renegotiated NAFTA into the USMCA amidst similar tariff threats:

• Donald Trump [21:15]: “I will say that we just ended a nightmare known as NAFTA...”

The USMCA, while favoring US interests, established a framework that regulated trade to prevent the need for extreme measures:

• Justin Trudeau [21:34]: “Renegotiated NAFTA into the USMCA was widely perceived to have included terms that were viewed as quite preferable for the United States.”

Trump’s current threats suggest a possible return to more unilateral and confrontational trade policies:

• Justin Trudeau [24:24]: “...President Trump in his first term was precedent breaking in terms of how he spoke about and how he handled allies.”

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Potential Outcomes and Future Outlook

Experts like Kayleigh Glenn from Duke University provide insights into the strategic missteps that Trump's tariff policies might entail:

• Kayleigh Glenn [26:13]: “Artificial Intelligence Smart houses Electric vehicles we are living in the future...”

The episode posits that Trump’s approach may undermine established alliances and jeopardize economic stability:

• Justin Trudeau [22:52]: “...Canada has been a security ally across many different formalized alliances with the United States...”

Looking forward, the responses from Canada and Mexico, coupled with the intricate economic ties, suggest that unilateral actions by Trump could lead to strained relations and economic downturns on both sides.

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Conclusion

"Trump Trolls the Neighbours" provides a comprehensive analysis of the escalating tensions between the United States, Canada, and Mexico under Donald Trump's impending administration. By examining the economic dependencies, historical precedents, and potential retaliatory measures, the episode underscores the fragile balance of North American relations and the far-reaching consequences of aggressive trade and security policies.

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Notable Quotes:

• Sean Rameswaram [00:00]: “Past and future President Donald Trump isn't being very nice to our neighbors.”

• Claudia Sheinbaum [04:23]: “...any measure like that would definitely tip Mexico into a recession.”

• Justin Trudeau [21:34]: “Renegotiated NAFTA into the USMCA was widely perceived to have included terms that were viewed as quite preferable for the United States.”

• Claudia Sheinbaum [11:14]: “It would be pretty chaotic for both countries, particularly in their economies.”

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This summary is crafted to provide an in-depth overview of the podcast episode, capturing the essential discussions and viewpoints presented by the hosts and guests.

Transcript

[Sean Romasfurm]

Past and future President Donald Trump isn't being very nice to our neighbors. He said he'd drop 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico on day one.

[Kayleigh Glenn]

This tariff will remain in effect until such time as drugs, in particular fentanyl and all illegal aliens stop this invasion of our country.

[Sean Romasfurm]

That threat has Canadians saying, how dare.

[Kayleigh Glenn]

You compare us to Mexico.

[Sean Romasfurm]

And has Mexicans saying rude Canada. But it's certainly getting everyone's attention. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau took a trip down to Mar a Lago to be like, what's the deal, Donald? Will it work? Nobody knows. But after he left, Trump called Trudeau, the governor of the 51st state, rude. Donald, we're gonna ask what the next block party might look like on TODAY Explained. Support for TODAY Explained comes from Webroot. Webroot believes in cybersecurity made smarter, creating software that harnesses the cloud and AI to stop threats in real time. It was designed to make your digital life better by protecting you from all kinds of threats. You can live a better digital life with Webroot. And now you can get 60% off an exclusive discount for our listeners when you go to www.webroot.com today. That's www.webroot.com today.

[Mary Beth Sheridan]

Support for this podcast comes from Stripe. Stripe is a payments and billing platform supporting millions of businesses around the world, including companies like Uber, BMW and DoorDash. Stripe has helped countless startups and established companies alike reach their growth targets, make progress on their missions, and reach more customers globally. The platform offers a suite of specialized features and tools to fast track growth like Stripe billing, which makes it easy to handle subscription based char invoicing and all recurring revenue management needs. You can learn how Stripe helps companies of all sizes make [e-mail] that's stripe.com to learn more. Stripe make progress.

[Sean Romasfurm]

Estades quachando a hoy explicado Today explains.

[Claudia Sheinbaum]

I'm Mary Beth Sheridan, bureau chief for the Washington Post in Mexico.

[Sean Romasfurm]

Mexico's got a new president. The United States has an incoming president. How's that feeling right now in Mexico?

[Claudia Sheinbaum]

Definitely a fascinating moment. People are very worried, I would say, because of course, Trump is coming in very focused on Mexico with threats to impose tariffs. He's even talked about using the US Military to go after fentanyl producers. The president pulls me aside on at.

[Donald Trump]

Least a couple occasions and suggests that.

[Claudia Sheinbaum]

Maybe we have the US Military shoot missiles into Mexico.

[Donald Trump]

We need a military operation. What's happening? What you're just telling me? We need a military operation. These people have become military. They're very. I will deploy all necessary military assets, including the US Navy, to impose the full naval embargo. And the cartels. I did that before, and it worked. What we did was incredible.

[Claudia Sheinbaum]

There's just a lot of uncertainty in Mexico, and everybody's very focused on what Trump is going to do.

[Sean Romasfurm]

Let's just speak about what he said explicitly. He obviously says a lot, but what's he said since winning the election?

[Claudia Sheinbaum]

So Trump posted on Truth Social that he would put a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada if they didn't stop the flow of migrants and fentanyl over the border. So that's pretty much alarmed. Well, both countries, I would say. But in Mexico particularly, Mexico is very dependent on the US market. 80% of Mexico's exports go to the United States. Any measure like that would definitely tip Mexico into a recession. Trump has also talked about possibly using the US Military to go after fentanyl producers in Mexico. And Mexicans are very nationalistic. They remember US Invasions, and they are very worried about that. Mexico Siempresale de lantes.

[Justin Trudeau]

We are a free, independent, sovereign country. There will be good relations with the United States. I'm convinced of that.

[Sean Romasfurm]

When you say use the US Military to go after fentanyl producers, whatever it might be, we're talking about bombing Mexico, which we've discussed on the show before.

[Claudia Sheinbaum]

You know, it's really unclear what would happen, and I think Trump has intentionally left it a bit unclear. I mean, he's talked about sending the military to the border. People around him have talked about using special forces, possibly bombing fentanyl labs. It's a little unclear both what he would do and whether he would do it with Mexico's permission. By the way, I doubt very much Mexico would give permission for something like that. But that point is left kind of undefined at the moment. So that lack of clarity is something that makes people very nervous.

[Sean Romasfurm]

Has Mexico done anything yet to address Trump's threats?

[Claudia Sheinbaum]

So they've been really eager to sit down with Trump's people, which has not happened yet. Claudia Sheinbaum has spoken. She's the president of Mexico. She's spoken twice to Trump by phone. And both sides have described those conversations in very positive terms. And Sheinbaum is trying to kind of, quote, quiet the fears both of Mexicans in Mexico and migrants in the US who were there unauthorized and could face deportation. She's trying to kind of keep the markets from going crazy and keep people from worrying too much.

[Justin Trudeau]

For our compatriots and their relatives. Who are here for Mexican companies and entrepreneurs. There's no reason to worry.

[Claudia Sheinbaum]

So far, the plans that Mexico has made are very low key, and a lot of the focus has been on Mexicans in the United States who could be some of the primary targets for mass deportation. So Mexico is beefing up the legal staffs at its consulates and things like that.

[Sean Romasfurm]

Do we know how Mexico's new president, Claudia Sheinbaum, feels about our past and future President Donald Trump?

[Claudia Sheinbaum]

Her predecessor, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who left office at the end of September, had managed to create a pretty good relationship with Trump, to everybody's surprise.

[Donald Trump]

We've had a great relationship right from the beginning, and I think that maybe was against all odds. A lot of people were betting against it, but they've learned not to bet against us, I suspect. I know they've learned that in Mexico.

[Claudia Sheinbaum]

Lopez Obrador is a leftist nationalist, and Lopez Obrador gave in to Trump's demands on curbing migration. And in exchange, Trump kind of left him alone on a lot of other fronts. So the question is, Claudia Sheinbaum is the new president. She is definitely a leftist. She's the protege of Lopez Obrador, but she's a different personality. She's a scientist, much less charismatic, obviously female. And there's been a lot of questions about whether she will be able to establish the bond that Lopez Obrador had with Trump.

[Kayleigh Glenn]

Instead of distancing ourselves, we are deciding. We're opting to walk together towards the future. We want to privilege understanding, you know.

[Claudia Sheinbaum]

Lopez Obrador, I think, and Trump, in part, had this respect because each saw the other as the head of a movement. Claudia Sheinbaum won with a commanding majority in the elections last June, but she kind of rode on the coattails of Lopez Obrador, so she may not have quite the same stature. So far, they've both said their conversations were very positive. So we'll see what happens.

[Sean Romasfurm]

Do we have any sense of who she wanted to win the presidential election in the United States?

[Claudia Sheinbaum]

Oh, she was so careful about not expressing any preference, because I think she understands Mexico needs to have a good relationship with the United States in particular. The economies are so intertwined, so many Mexican jobs depend on the exports to the United States. So she didn't want to do anything that would get her off on the wrong foot with the new president. If you look carefully at what's been going on, Mexico has become just a crucial ally for the US in stopping migration. So under President Biden, in particular, in the past, Year, the Biden administration leaned on Mexico migrant arrivals at the border. The detentions by the U.S. border Patrol had reached a historic high in December. And the Biden people came down and really had a tough talk with the Mexicans. And Mexico cracked down in a huge way. They have done about a million detentions since then. And the number of people being migrants being detained at the US border has dropped by 75%. So Mexico has a crucial role to play in terms of being able to stop migrants. The other thing I would mention is that the U.S. both consumers and U.S. business depend tremendously on things made in Mexico. Everything from fruits and vegetables to carbs to Oreo cookies. I mean, the two countries are very, the economies are interwoven.

[Sean Romasfurm]

Even our oreo cookies. I didn't even know that.

[Claudia Sheinbaum]

You bet. Cheez. Its all kinds of snack foods. Yeah, they're made in both countries now and stuff goes back and forth. Think about Oreo cookies are made using US Wheat. Mexican beer is made using barley from Idaho and Montana. Trump has talked about these 25% tariffs that he could put on Mexico and Canada because of migration and drugs. But those would wind up having a real boomerang effect for American consumers and for the American companies that rely on Mexican parts for auto factories in Detroit or airplane factories in the US and so on.

[Sean Romasfurm]

Tell us a bit more about the boomerang effect. What could the US economy look like if Trump went ahead and imposed 25% tariffs? What, what could the relationship with Mexico look like if Trump sort of, I don't know, unilaterally decided to start bombing drug production sites in the country?

[Claudia Sheinbaum]

So I do think that consumers could feel this very quickly. In the U.S. for example, the Mexican government has calculated that pickup trucks sold in the US could be $3,000 more expensive with these tariffs because a lot of the pickups and, or the parts are made in Mexico. You look at stuff like agriculture in the winter, the berries that are in American supermarkets come from Mexico. Largely. Mexico has a longer growing season. In a lot of cases, they're actually grown either by American companies sometimes or in joint venture type arrangements. Think about during the pandemic when Mexico closed some of its factories. The Pentagon got all worried because the parts for the airplanes that the defense contractors build for the US army and Navy, they weren't coming. They couldn't build those planes. So that's the kind of commercial side, I think on the drug side, Mexico is a very proud, very nationalistic country. And the public would not tolerate any kind of US Unilateral Military action, I think that would really destroy the relationship and it would be pretty chaotic for both countries, particularly in their economies, I would say.

[Sean Romasfurm]

It's funny, this trade fight he's trying to pick with Mexico and Canada at the same time. If I'm not mistaken, it's kind of pitted Mexico against Canada a little bit.

[Claudia Sheinbaum]

Oh, the Mexicans have been pretty horrified that the headlines have been Canada's throwing us under the bus. And what happened is, well, the Canadians on the one hand are worried about the possibility that Mexico could be sort of a backdoor for Chinese cars and auto parts and so on. That would come in and the Canadians are saying the Mexicans aren't being as tough on China as we are now. The Mexicans say, hey, China is still a pretty small exporter to Mexico and there's not a lot of evidence that Mexicans say that there is some kind of backdoor thing going on. Canada is heading into its own elections pretty soon. So the theme of trade has emerged, particularly on the provincial level, where some officials who, at least in the Mexican vision, are trying to make hay out of this issue. But the Canadian government has gone so far as to say, well, let's just leave Mexico out of the North America and Free Trade Agreement, you know, and the Mexicans are not amused at all.

[Sean Romasfurm]

It's so funny. It's like one friend's fighting with two friends and then the two friends start fighting with each other too.

[Claudia Sheinbaum]

Yeah. I think it is very much seen as an effort by Canada to strengthen its hand with Trump, but it's hard to imagine that it will work.

[Sean Romasfurm]

Mary Beth Sheridan, she covers Mexico for Mexico City for Washington Post. Punto. Com. We're going to talk about the Canada of it all when we're back on Today Explained.

[Kayleigh Glenn]

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[Sean Romasfurm]

Today explained is back we mauled Mexico. Now it's time to crow about Canada. To do so, we reached out to Kayleigh Glenn at Duke University. She's been following the threats, the tariffs, the tumult.

[Justin Trudeau]

Prime Minister Trudeau himself took a trip to Mar a Lago to meet with President Elect Trump in a way that received some mixed reviews. In Canada, at least some saw this as a potential strategy for a leader who knows how to deal with president like Trump, meeting him on his home turf, figuring out how there might be a way to dampen the tariff rhetoric. But on the other hand, Trump is not yet president. And so there are folks who have been critical about Trudeau's apparent deference to the incoming president. We're also seeing provincial leaders and regional leaders responding to these threats of tariffs. So Ontario Premier Doug Ford, for instance, has recently threatened to enact sort of province wide retaliatory measures in the form of cutting off Ontario's energy supply to specific United States. If the tariffs are imposed on Canadian goods.

[Claudia Sheinbaum]

We will go to the full extent, depending how far this goes, we will go to the extent of cutting off their energy going down to Michigan, going down to New York State and over to Wisconsin. I don't want this to happen.

[Justin Trudeau]

And this is not exactly weak threat. Ontario's energy supply to the United States amounts for providing over 1 million homes with their electricity. And this would have regional impacts within the United States, particularly in states like Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York, which all account for large dollar amounts and large quantities of trade with, with Canada and with Ontario specifically. What's also interesting is that Ontario Premier Doug Ford has mentioned that he is planning on meeting with other provincial premiers in Canada to sort of coordinate a potential response across the provinces to any sort of tariffs that are imposed by the United States.

[Sean Romasfurm]

Trump got a chance to sort of rearrange the relationships between Canada and Mexico in his first administration and he took it.

[Justin Trudeau]

How did that go over in Trump's first term as US President? He went ahead and threatened to impose tariffs on Canadian and Mexican products and actually went ahead and did impose them. But what happened in Trump's first term was that Canada and Mexico retaliated. Canada imposed reciprocal tariffs on steel and aluminum products that remained in place until NAFTA was renegotiated to become the usmca.

[Donald Trump]

I will say that we just ended a nightmare known as nafta. They took our, they took our jobs for a long time. They took it for a long time. And we now have a brand new U.S. mexico Canada agreement. It's a whole different ballgame.

[Justin Trudeau]

Renegotiated NAFTA into the USMCA was widely perceived to have included terms that were viewed as quite preferable for the United States.

[Sean Romasfurm]

But now Trump is coming out before he's even in office, barking at Canada and Mexico and threatening 25% tariffs. Does that mean he didn't quite get it right the first time?

[Justin Trudeau]

I think what this means is that the goals of what second term Trump administration is trying to achieve really matter here. Candidate Trump mentioned the US Trade deficit with Mexico and specifically mentioned that the border between US And Canada and the border between US And Mexico is a key issue that he signaled he might use tariffs to address. If the goals of the tariffs are, in fact, security in nature, it's not entirely clear how tariffs would bring about desired policy change, given that Canada and Mexican leaders have already signaled they want to take action on the border. So that is to say, there's already room for cooperation, and there might not be necessarily a need for the pressure levied by tariffs.

[Sean Romasfurm]

I think when people think about the border between the United States and Mexico, they think about migrants. But when people think about the border between the United States and Canada, they think about, like, Niagara Falls. What is Trump mad about? Regarding the 49th parallel, there still remain.

[Justin Trudeau]

Irregular migrant crossings at unofficial entry points between Canada and the United States. And Prime Minister Trudeau, alongside President Biden, coordinated the implementation of what's called the Safe Third Country Agreement to specifically address these irregular migrant crossings.

[Kayleigh Glenn]

This once busy crossing between Quebec and New York is now quiet. The Canadian government closed the door to Wroxham Road by extending something known as the Safe Third Country Agreement.

[Claudia Sheinbaum]

Under the agreement, asylum seekers arriving by land at official crossings are turned away.

[Kayleigh Glenn]

And handed back to American authorities.

[Claudia Sheinbaum]

After midnight tonight, police and border officers will enforce the agreement and return irregular border crossers to the closest port of entry with the United States.

[Justin Trudeau]

So there's already been movement on the policy side between Canada and the United States to address things like irregular migrant crossings. Beyond that, it's not entirely clear what might be addressed in any sort of future policy move beyond what Canada and the United States have signaled they already want to do.

[Sean Romasfurm]

Trump loves to walk in and shake stuff up, right? He's a norm buster, a precedent setter, a precedent breaker. Is that what he's doing here with Canada and Mexico just before he even takes office? Scaring the living daylights out of everyone about tariffs and borders and bombings, even.

[Justin Trudeau]

I mean, that's certainly possible. We sort of got a taste of Trump's foreign policy approach during his first term, in which he dealt with traditional allies of the United States in ways similar to how the United States has treated its traditional adversaries. With big threats and sort of harsh rhetoric for perceptions of unfairness. So in a way, yes, President Trump in his first term was precedent breaking in terms of how he spoke about and how he handled allies. For instance, in his first administration, he considered Canada to be a national security threat and therefore justifying the imposition of the tariffs that we saw in 2018. I can't recall a time when the United States had considered Canada to be a national security threat to that degree after 1812, after the war, correct? Yes. I mean, Canada has been a security ally across many different formalized alliances with the United States. So it's not out of Trump's precedent, but it is out of US Precedent.

[Sean Romasfurm]

Kaylee Glenn is a postdoctoral fellow at the American Grand Strategy Program. If that sounds like your kind of program, you can find it at Duke University in Durham, North Carolina. Go Blue Devils. Or as I'm told, perhaps go back to Hell, ye Devils. I'm Sean Romasfurm and I really don't want to get involved. Our show today was produced by Halima Shah, edited by Matthew Collette, Fact Checked by North Carolinian Laura Bullard and Victoria Chamberlain, and mixed by Andrea Christenstad and North Carolinian Patrick Boyd. This is TODAY Explained.

[Mary Beth Sheridan]

Support for this podcast comes from Stripe Stripe is a payments and billing platform supporting millions of businesses around the world, including companies like uber, BMW and DoorDash. Stripe has helped countless startups and established companies alike reach their growth targets, make progress on their missions and reach more customers globally. The platform offers a suite of specialized features and tools to fast track growth like Stripe Billing, which makes it easy to handle subscription based charges, invoicing and all recurring revenue management needs. You can learn how Stripe helps companies of all sizes make [e-mail] that's stripe.com to learn more. Stripe Make Progress.

[Kayleigh Glenn]

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