What the Gaza ceasefire really means

Summary

Today, Explained: "What the Gaza Ceasefire Really Means"

Date: October 14, 2025
Hosts: Noel King, Josh Keating
Guest: Nidal El Mugrabi (Reuters senior correspondent)

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Episode Overview

This episode breaks down the historic ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, the atmosphere in Gaza and Israel since the truce, and the complex realities of peace on the ground. The hosts—joined by veteran Gaza reporter Nidal El Mugrabi and Vox’s Josh Keating—explore whether the war’s end marks the start of real change, the fates of Hamas and Palestinian leadership, and what the world might learn (or dangerously mislearn) from this devastating conflict. The episode also unpacks the significant role played by President Donald Trump in brokering the deal and its implications for broader international norms of warfare and state behavior.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Current Reality in Gaza After the Ceasefire

• Hamas Reasserts Power:
  • In the vacuum left by Israel’s withdrawal, Hamas security forces have redeployed across the Gaza Strip to restore their authority and manage disorder.
  • Quote:

    "Hamas forces have been deployed into the streets of Gaza Strip in areas where the army pulled back... in an attempt to reassert power and to fight back against... armed gangs and what Hamas calls also people who have collaborated with Israel."
    — Nidal El Mugrabi (02:29)

• Internal Crackdowns:
  • Hamas has conducted raids, clashed with clan militias, and even carried out executions of alleged collaborators.
    • "In the past three days they have clashed with several clan members and armed groups, killing dozens." (02:48)
    • "There was a video... showing armed masked men... killing seven people... it was an execution of alleged collaborators." (05:59)

2. The Ceasefire’s Fragile Terms: Disarmament & Governance

• Hamas’s Position
  • Despite international and regional pressure, Hamas publicly rejects immediate disarmament, insisting weapons will only be surrendered to a recognized Palestinian state, not to outsiders or an international force.
  • Quote:

    "Our weapons are going to be handed over only to the hands of a Palestinian state, and our fighters can be integrated into the Palestinian national army. Before that, no one has the right to deny us the right to resist."
    — Nidal El Mugrabi (07:04)

• International and Domestic Tensions:
  • The US and Israel insist Hamas must be disarmed and excluded from governance, a process to be dictated in future negotiations.
  • Palestinians in Gaza reject the idea of international rule—demanding Palestinian (not foreign) leadership of their future (08:50).

3. The Human Toll & Mood Among Civilians

• Complex Emotions:
  • The “joy” of peace is mixed with despair, trauma, and profound uncertainty about the future.
  • Quote:

    "They are joyful. But we shouldn't forget that this joy is not like pure because it's mixed by feelings of despair... loss of families, the loss of houses, the loss of an entire city."
    — Nidal El Mugrabi (09:05)

• Uncertainty on Reconstruction:
  • Civilians question if and when reconstruction will happen; the restart is conditional on Hamas disarming and the peace deal holding.

4. The Lessons—and Dangers—of a 'Victory'

• Global Precedent of Force Over Plan:
  • There’s concern that the war’s end will be read as proof that “military victory at all costs” works, regardless of civilian casualties or postwar plans.
  • Quote:

    "The lesson that a lot of countries are going to take is they don't have to take those things into account. They can just try to win militarily, don't have to think about post-war planning and kill as many civilians as they need to accomplish their military goals."
    — Josh Keating (17:32)

• Erosion of Norms:
  • The changing attitude of the U.S., and leaders like Trump, may weaken the rules-based international order, including the laws of war (25:15).

5. The Role of President Trump

• Critical Pressure on Both Sides:
  • Trump’s heavy-handed diplomatic style—insisting on hostages and ceasefire first, and “bulldozing” through Israeli and Hamas hesitations—was instrumental in forging a deal many thought unlikely.
  • Quote:

    "He did put pressure on Netanyahu in a way Joe Biden never did... When Hamas basically responded to the deal with a ‘yes, but’, Netanyahu tried to treat that as a no, and Trump still pushed forward."
    — Josh Keating (18:29)

• Political Motivations:
  • Trump is depicted as seeking a legacy, aiming for Nobel Peace Prize-level recognition, and positioning himself as a global "deal maker" (20:04).

6. Fallout for Israeli and Palestinian Politics

• Netanyahu Buys Time:
  • The deal is portrayed as best-case given the circumstances, but Netanyahu himself gets little popular credit within Israel; Trump is celebrated more by the public and families of hostages (20:54, 21:58).
• Generational Changes and International Isolation:
  • Despite hopes that Israel's international standing can recover as the guns go silent, Keating highlights a generational shift toward greater worldwide sympathy for Palestinians which could increase Israel’s future isolation (22:57).

7. Personal Reflections & the Weight of History

• A Grieving Society:
  • El Mugrabi speaks movingly about the inability of Gazans even to grieve or bury loved ones—a pain compounded by decades of intermittent war and little time to rebuild lives (10:48).
  • Quote:

    "People have, they did not even have a chance to, to comfort one another or even to grief... Some of the people have not even had the chance to bury their own people, their relatives. So those deserve like some time of peace at least. Even if they want only to grieve."
    — Nidal El Mugrabi (10:48)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Gaza Civilians Post-war:

  "Now the war is over. It is time to look for the body of my father or the body of my son, which is still under the rubble of our house."
  — Nidal El Mugrabi (09:05)

• On the Hard Truth of Ceasefire:

  "Hamas is doing that in the so-called, let's say, interim period with a nod from the White House... How long this is going to last before the next phase of disarming the movement, which is going to be very complicated?"
  — Nidal El Mugrabi (03:55)

• On Global Norms:

  "There were certain norms that were at least held up as aspirations... I think we're moving away from that."
  — Josh Keating (25:15)

• On Netanyahu's Political Survival:

  "He's been hanging by a thread for about three decades now... and I think he's done it again this time."
  — Josh Keating (20:54)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• [02:29] Hamas’ reassertion of power in Gaza post-ceasefire
• [05:10] Changes in Hamas’s strength after the war
• [07:04] Discussion of disarmament and the future of Hamas
• [09:05] Palestinian civilian reaction to the ceasefire and deep loss
• [10:48] El Mugrabi’s personal reflections on years of conflict
• [17:32] Keating outlines the dangerous lessons the world might learn from this war
• [18:29] Trump’s diplomatic style and its role in the ceasefire
• [20:54] Netanyahu’s gains (and lack of credit) after the deal
• [22:57] The likely impact on Israel’s international reputation and young global opinion
• [25:15] The war’s effect on international norms and the rules of war

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Tone & Language

• The conversation is somber, analytical, and candid. Nidal El Mugrabi brings a hard-earned realism and deep emotion, especially regarding civilian suffering. Josh Keating applies a critical, sometimes cynical policy lens, especially in considering global implications. Noel King’s questions keep the discussion grounded in the realities facing both leaders and ordinary people.

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This episode is vital for anyone seeking an in-depth understanding of the complexities and unresolved challenges following the Gaza ceasefire, the fragility of regional peace, and the high stakes of global political lessons learned—or not learned—from this war.

Transcript

[Noel King]

Palestinians and Israelis have lived about a decade in the last week. The living Israeli hostages are now home. Palestinian prisoners held by Israel have come home, too. Israel has agreed to a ceasefire in Gaza. Both sides are already accusing the other of violating the terms. It should be said President Trump took a victory lap. Well deserved, many people say in a speech to Israel's Knesset today.

[Josh Keating]

The skies are calm, the guns are.

[Nidal El Mugrabi]

Silent, the sirens are still, and the.

[Josh Keating]

Sun rises on a holy land that.

[Noel King]

Is finally at peace. A land then met with more than 20 world leaders in Egypt and complained that Time magazine had used a, quote, super bad picture of him in a cover story touting his triumph. Some big questions do remain. Will Hamas disarm? Who's going to lead in Gaza? Coming up on Today Explained, Peace. And then the hard part, Support for Today Explained comes from the Economist. If you're like me, you're a little bit obsessed with the Economist, and the Economist has a new feature for you. Insider is a brand new video offering from the Economist that lets you feel like a fly on the wall of their editorial meetings. With Insider, you get direct access to the internal debates that shape how the Economist makes sense of an increasingly complex and turbulent world. Hear trusted voices debate the biggest global issues with Insider, free at launch for all subscribers to the Economist. Huh? Learn [e-mail] Insider support for the show.

[Podcast Sponsor/Announcer]

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[Nidal El Mugrabi]

You're listening to Today Explained.

[Noel King]

I'm Noel King here with Nidal El Mugrabi in Cairo. Nidal is a senior correspondent for Reuters who was based in Gaza until Reuters pulled him out about a month and a half after the war started. Nidal understandably, there's a lot of optimism about this peace deal. You've been reporting even today on what Hamas is doing in Gaza, what's going.

[Nidal El Mugrabi]

On since the ceasefire came into effect. You know, like Hamas forces have been deployed into the streets of Gaza Strip in areas where the army pulled back from in an attempt to reassert power and to fight back against like some of the armed gangs and what Hamas calls also people who have collaborated with Israel to instigate like chaos and anarchy. They have deployed like hundreds of security forces and fighters in some areas and you know, like in the past three days they have clashed with like, with several like clan members and armed groups, killing dozens. According to security officials from Hamas, they're fighting in different places across Gaza Strip. Yes, the exchange of rockets or exchange of fire with Israel may have stopped, but Hamas has another kind of, of a battle which is to regain control of Gaza, which it has ruled since 2007. And maybe encouraged by, you know, like US President Donald Trump has said that, you know, like he. They have given a nod to Hamas to do so where they are standing.

[Josh Keating]

Because they do want to stop the.

[Nidal El Mugrabi]

Problems and they've been open about it.

[Josh Keating]

And we gave them approval for a period of time.

[Nidal El Mugrabi]

So Hamas is doing that in the so called, let's say interim period with a nod from the White House until when this is going to last. What kind of a window or like a timeline for this window given by the Americans to Hamas to still exist before they move to the next phase of disarming the movement, which is going to be very complicated issue and thorny issue in the negotiations. When it comes to Israel, I think Israel is seeing what's happening. I don't think that Israel is very much like what they see on the ground because the ultimate goal for Israel as expressed by Netanyahu and you know, like our defense minister, cuts several times the next day in Gaza, there would be no presence for Hamas in the government. Hamas must be disarmed and defeated. That's when it comes to Israel's goals.

[Noel King]

Over the last two years, many members of Hamas, including the group's leadership, have been killed by Israel. How strong is Hamas today?

[Nidal El Mugrabi]

Hamas nowadays is not the same movement that was before October 7th. They have lost almost all of the top military commanders. They have lost many of the political leaders of the group. They have lost hundreds or thousands of fighters. But in the past three days they have shown some ability to control, you know, they have shown a serious attempt towards reassertion of their control of Gaza Strip. We are seeing hundreds of security forces like on the ground. We are seeing dozens of the armed wing like fighters like well equipped. Also like touring like the streets, raiding some places looking for people on their wanted list for like what they said, instigation of, of anarchy and chaos and collaboration with Israel during the war. Yesterday there was a video that showed several armed masked men. Some of them were like wearing green bandanas resembling the ones that Hamas fighters usually wear on their foreheads. Killing seven people. And according to one of Hamas security officials, he confirmed to Reuters the authenticity of the video and told us that it was an execution of alleged collaborators. That's what he said.

[Noel King]

What you're reminding us is that Hamas really did have a lot of control over the Gaza Strip and it exercised it at points through violence. A key element of this ceasefire is that Hamas is being asked to disarm and give up control over the territory. And how likely is Hamas to actually do that?

[Nidal El Mugrabi]

You know, publicly, officially? Hamas leaders have been against that. They have repeatedly rejected the idea of disarming. Our weapons are going to be handed over only to the hands of a Palestinian state, and our fighters can be integrated into the Palestinian national army before that. No one has the right to deny us the right to resist the occupation by all means. You know, having said that, there will be negotiations over Israel's and the United States demands. And actually it's not only the demand now by Israel and the United States, you know, like, since many Arab and Muslim, you know, countries, some of them are very friendly with Hamas, you know, welcomed the Trump 20 point documents.

[Josh Keating]

I welcome you all to Sharm El.

[Noel King]

Sheikh Peace Summit.

[Nidal El Mugrabi]

Historic.

[Josh Keating]

And we all together witness the reaching.

[Noel King]

Of Sham El Sheikh, unending war in Gaza, the birth of a glimpse of hope, such deep ends and agonizing chapter in the history of mankind.

[Nidal El Mugrabi]

So the pressure on Hamas is expected to be very high. Huge. But in the same time, Hamas is arguing that it has agreed to relinquish power, they will no longer be in the governance in Gaza, and that they are accepting a government of technocrat. But they are referring to a Palestinian government of technocrat and not to the international force or entity that the Trump blueprint is detailing.

[Noel King]

So Palestinians want Palestinian leadership. They don't want outsiders coming in to rule over them. How are civilians in Gaza feeling about the prospect of an end to this war? What are you hearing?

[Nidal El Mugrabi]

I think Palestinians, especially in, like, in Gaza and everywhere, but especially in Gaza, you know, they are, they're joyful. But we shouldn't forget that this joy is not like, pure because it's mixed by the feelings of despair. It's mixed by the feeling of loss and, you know, like the loss of families, the loss of houses, the loss of an entire, entire, like, city. It's actually stories of despair. You know, like somebody would say, would tell us, now the war is over. It is time to look for the body of my father or the body of, like, my son, which, you know, like, which is still under the rubble of our house like back in Gaza City, some people would tell you that, you know, yes, the war is over, but when the rebuilding of Gaza will happen, are we going to continue to live in tents for years to come before they rebuild Gaza? Because there is no timeline for when the reconstruction will happen or ever will it happen? Because it's all dependent on whether the deal will succeed, on whether Hamas will agree to disarm. It is conditional. So the lack of clarity torments the people and also an impact the feelings of relief they are trying to hold onto.

[Noel King]

I wonder how you are feeling today after covering decades of wars and peace treaties and more wars and more peace treaties. Where is your mind at?

[Nidal El Mugrabi]

That's a tough question. You know, I've been with Reuters since 1996. I have covered numerous rounds of fighting in addition to the major wars since I covered the war in 2008-2012-2014-2019, 2021, 22, 23 because there were some major rounds of fighting. And here I am covering the biggest and longest ever war or fighting between the Palestinians and Israel, just like any Palestinian. I just hope that the guns have gone silent forever and that people will have the opportunity to rebuild their lives because it's not just homes that had been destroyed, it's also the lives of the people that had been torn apart. People have, they did not even have a chance to, to comfort one another or even to grief for the people they have lost. You know, some of the people have not even had the chance to bury like their own people, their relatives. So those deserve like some time of peace at least. Even if they want only to grieve. Even if they want only, you know, I hear people, you know, like, telling me that the thing that they want to do the most when this war like ends is to cry. You know, imagine so because, you know, they, they had to contain, you know, like this, these feelings of sadness, of sorrow and frustration for so long. So it is time for them to have some break relief and hope that, you know, this war is actually over and that's not going to be any resumption of the fighting. It's what every Palestin once and I'm included.

[Noel King]

Nidal El Mubi of Reuters. In Cairo. Coming up, what lessons did the world learn from this war? And what if they are the wrong ones? Support for today explained comes from Quince. Sweater weather is upon us. And sweater weather isn't just about sweaters. It's about all the layers in your fall outfits that keep you warm as the days get colder. From the aforementioned sweaters to premium denim to luxe outerwear. Quince says they have everything you need to stay cozy this autumn. And by partnering directly with top tier factories, Quince is able to cut out the middleman, which is how they say they can deliver luxury quality clothing at half the price of similar brands. Here's Nisha Chital, the Cotton Boyfriend crewneck sweater. It's kind of just a good classic oversized sweater that looks kind of effortlessly polished and put together. It's really easy to build an outfit around it. You know, you can throw on a sweater and jeans and walk out the door and fall in it. It's, it's a perfect, easy outfit. You can find your fall staples at Quint. You can go to quint.comexplained for free shipping on your order and 365 day returns. Now available in Canada too. That's Q-U-I-N-C-E.comexplained to get free shipping and 365 day returns. Quince.com Explained.

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[Josh Keating]

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[Noel King]

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[Josh Keating]

You're listening to TODAY Explained.

[Noel King]

Josh, go ahead, give me your full name and tell me what you do.

[Josh Keating]

I'm Josh Keating. I'm a reporter at Vox covering foreign policy and national security.

[Noel King]

All right, so you, over the past couple of days have written and then updated a piece about what you call the bleak lesson that Israel and the the world might learn from the end of this war. What is the bleak lesson? What are you talking about?

[Josh Keating]

Well, it's just, you know, there was a lot of discussion throughout this war that Israel needed a day after plan, it needed to come up with some plan for governance of Gaza and that by killing as many civilians as they did in the process of wiping out Hamas, that they're undermining their own goals. And I think, you know, with this war ended is what we have to say is about as successfully as could have been anticipated over the last few months. You know, really, I think the lesson that a lot of countries are going to take is they don't have to take those things into account. They can just try to win militarily, don't have to think about post war planning and kill as many civilians as they need to to accomplish their military goals. And I think, you know, other countries, there are problems with that thesis, but they might see it as a viable solution.

[Nidal El Mugrabi]

Hmm.

[Noel King]

Let's talk about how we got here and let's talk first about the man taking the most credit, and that is President Trump. How much credit does the president deserve here?

[Josh Keating]

You know, I think those sort of Trumpian style diplomacy did play a key role here. I mean, I think what the sort of strength of this deal is. They sort of put off the tricky long term questions about, you know, governance and you know, whether Hamas was going to disarm and you know, when Israel is going to withdraw to what point? And they just said no. Trump said we need hostages released now, we need ceasefire now. And when the two sides tried to wiggle out of it, he basically pushed them forward. He did put pressure on Netanyahu in a way. It has to be said, Joe Biden never did. And when Hamas basically responded to the deal with a yes, but Netanyahu tried to treat that as a no, and Trump still pushed forward, he said he basically treated it as a yes. And so I think that that was critical in getting everyone on the same page. I think the question we have to ask is whether this could have been done sooner. I mean, I think a lot of people are forgetting now that there was a ceasefire in place that was negotiated by the Biden administration when Trump came into office, and that lapsed in March when Israel resumed the war. So could Trump have applied this kind of pressure back in February, March, and avo, you know, all the casualties we've seen since then, you know, it's. It's hard to say, but I, we, we should give him credit for what we saw over the last few weeks. But also there are questions to be asked about whether this could have been done earlier.

[Nidal El Mugrabi]

Hmm.

[Noel King]

What does President Trump get out of this? What does this mean for the next three plus years of his administration?

[Josh Keating]

Well, I think he. What he'd like to get out of it is a Nobel Peace Prize. He didn't get it last week. You know, there's always next year. I think we'll have to wait and see. I mean, you know, he's, he. This is another thing I've written about that. There's been a lot of discussion about whether the US Is retreating from the world under Trump's presidency. I don't think that's the right way to look at it. I think Trump has taken a very activist stance on the world. I mean, he says inaccurately, that stopped eight wars, so that's never happened before. But I think he sees himself as a peacemaker and a dealmaker. And, you know, I think that he will say that he's the only one who could have made this deal, that he's done something Joe Biden wasn't able to do. And, yeah, so I think he sees this as a legacy issue for him.

[Noel King]

What does Benjamin Netanyahu get out of this deal?

[Josh Keating]

Benjamin Netanyahu gets time for a piece I wrote, I went back to coverage of him in the first year he was prime minister back in the 90s. And even then, people were saying that he was this sort of serial bungler that he was on, on the way out, that his prime ministership was hanging by a thread. And the guy's been hanging by a thread for about three decades now. And I think what happens is he sort of gets in these dilemmas and he plays for time and I think he's done it again this time. You know, this deal is about as probably good as realistically could be expected over the last year or so for Israel. You know, it has to be said, I don't think a lot of Israelis are giving him credit for it. I think Trump is getting a lot more credit for it. You know, if you look at the rallies and the statements that hostage families are making, they're thinking, Trump, thank you.

[Nidal El Mugrabi]

President Trump, for your courage. Thank you, the Trump administration, for doing everything you can to bring them home.

[Josh Keating]

President Trump basked in the praise of.

[Nidal El Mugrabi]

A country that credits him more than.

[Josh Keating]

Its own prime minister for today's long awaited reunion. The President's name echoing through Israel's parliament as he touted his landmark diplomatic success. They're not thanking Netanyahu and it's pretty clear that he tried to wiggle out of this up until the last minute, but still, you know, elections are months, if not a year away. And I think what we've learned over the past three decades is that, you know, as long as he has sort of time to try to find a way out, you know, he usually does.

[Noel King]

This war, you know, it may be over, it may be a win for Netanyahu, the best he could have possibly hoped for. But we do know that it has damaged Israel's reputation internationally. What do you think the ripple effect of this, of this war is down the line?

[Josh Keating]

I think the hope for Israel is that, or, you know, and I don't mean Netanyahu, I mean sort of average Israelis, is that once the fighting stops, that some of the heat will be taken off, that, you know, we've already seen it, that, you know, governments in the Middle east were clearly sort of coordinating with Israel on this. You know, for all their public statements about the Palestinians, they're still willing to play ball with Israel to a large extent. And that some of the, for instance, European governments that signed on to recognizing the Palestinian state at the UN a few weeks ago and are starting to talk about things like sanctions and boycotts, that some of that pressure will go away. We'll be able to see Israeli teams participate in sporting events again. That will, you know, maybe they'll be able to go to Eurovision. Maybe there won't be the same kind of hostile atmosphere faced by Israeli citizens when they travel abroad. I think that's the hope and I think to some extent that will happen. I think public opprobrium can be pretty short lived. I mean, we saw Vladimir Putin walking on a red carpet in Alaska a few weeks ago. On the other hand, I do think there's something of a generational shift going on. I think if you look at the politics of Gen Z voters in most Western democracies, I think that sort of solidarity with the Palestinian cause and anti Zionism are becoming a lot more pervasive. And even if these current governments will maybe look for a way out of the very staunchly pro Palestinian stances they've taken over the last few months, I think long term, unless we see some major shifts on the ground in the Middle east that Israel is looking at a more isolated, both politically and economically isolated future.

[Noel King]

So to take us back to your piece, your concern is that the lessons countries take from this war is we don't need to worry about civilian life, we don't need to win hearts and minds and we don't have to have a plan for how to rebuild. We just need to do a war. Where does that leave us? Where does that leave the world?

[Josh Keating]

Well, you know, I think there's been a lot of discussion over the last few years of the sort of decaying of the so called rules based international order which you know, always had a lot of flaws and was frequently violated. But there were certain norms that were at least held up as aspirations, even if not always met in practice. You know, certain laws about the conduct of war, about the treatment of civilians. And you know, I think we're moving away from that. I think, you know, I mean we, if you look at what Pete Hegseth said a few weeks ago in that speech at Quantico, we unleash overwhelming and punishing violence on the enemy.

[Nidal El Mugrabi]

We also don't fight with stupid rules of engagement.

[Josh Keating]

We untie the hands of our war fighters to intimidate, demoralize, hunt and kill the enemies of our country. And so, you know, if, if the United States is the government that maybe more than others responsible for setting up a lot of these rules and norms is not even paying lip service to them anymore. I think a lot of countries are going to take note of that and it's going to affect the way other wars are fought in the future.

[Noel King]

Vox's Josh Keating, Avishai Artsy and Danielle Hewitt produced today's show. Amina El Saadi is our editor. Laura Bullard and had Mwagdi check the facts. Patrick Boyd and Adrian Lilly are our engineers. I'm Noel King. It's Today explained.

[Nidal El Mugrabi]

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[Josh Keating]

Here we have the Limu emu in its natural habitat helping people customize their car insurance and save hundreds with Liberty Mutual. Fascinating. It's accompanied by his natural ally, Doug. Uh, limu.

[Noel King]

Is that guy with the binoculars watching us?

[Josh Keating]

Cut the camera. They see us.

[Nidal El Mugrabi]

Only pay for what you [e-mail] Liberty.

[Josh Keating]

Liberty. Liberty. Liberty.

[Nidal El Mugrabi]

Very unwritten by Liberty Mutual Insurance Company affiliates excludes Massachusetts.