What’s next for Venezuela

Summary

Today, Explained – "What’s Next for Venezuela"

Date: January 5, 2026
Podcast: Today, Explained (Vox)
Host: Noel King
Guests: Ana Vanessa Herrero (Freelance Reporter, Caracas), Greg Grandin (Historian, Yale University)

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Episode Overview

This episode examines the immediate aftermath of U.S.-led capture and extradition of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro and explores the questions swirling around Venezuela’s political future, U.S. interventionism, and the mood on the streets in Caracas. The hosts speak to Ana Vanessa Herrero for on-the-ground reactions inside Venezuela and to Yale historian Greg Grandin to place these events within the long context of U.S. actions in Latin America.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

I. The Fallout From Maduro’s Capture

Timestamps: 00:02–01:25

• Maduro’s extradition to New York and the international turmoil it caused:

  • UN Security Council met to discuss legality of U.S. actions (at Colombia’s request)
  • President Trump threatened the Colombian president and made aggressive statements targeting Cuba, Greenland, Mexico, and Iran.

• “Cuba is ready to fall.” – President Trump [00:32]

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II. Caracas Reacts: Daily Life After Bombing and Capture

Guest: Ana Vanessa Herrero
Timestamps: 01:25–12:22

Life in Caracas Now (01:39–05:08):

• Ana Vanessa: “Everything’s going on. I mean, since Saturday, people have been, you know, wondering what is going to happen next. In just 48 hours, Venezuelans experience not only the first bombing and the first glimpse of war that they have experienced for hundreds of years now, but also they had to face the fact that Nicolas Maduro is no longer here.” [01:39]

• No immediate military or police presence, but lines at supermarkets, pharmacies for essentials.

• The city is eerily calm after “such storm”—a calm that feels unnatural and fraught.

• People’s mental toll: Anxiety, sleeplessness, stress is rampant.

  • An elderly woman: “She felt such stress that she just wanted to, like, go to sleep and figure it out later.” [Approx. 04:00]

On Safety and Routine:

• “No military on the streets, no cops on the streets, no danger whatsoever. People just... trying to get back to normal.” – Ana Vanessa Herrero [02:49]

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III. Political Transition and Uncertainty

Delsey Rodríguez’s Role
Timestamps: 05:08–08:44

• Delsey Rodríguez, long-time leftist and Maduro ally, expected to become interim president.
• Known critic of U.S. intervention and Trump, now signals unexpected openness to working with U.S.
  • On Saturday, declared Maduro Venezuela’s only president, denounced the capture as kidnapping, and demanded his return.
  • Within 24 hours, “she called the U.S., invited the U.S. to work together in a joint agenda.” – Ana Vanessa Herrero [06:49]

Conspiracy and Speculation:

• Possible theories among Venezuelans that Rodríguez may have been complicit in Maduro’s downfall, but no evidence.
• Her tone shift is viewed as suspicious and “enough to raise some eyebrows.” – Ana Vanessa Herrero [07:26]

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IV. Trump’s Plans and Venezuelan Sentiment

Timestamps: 08:44–10:46

• President Trump’s candid announcement:

  • “We’re going to have our very large United States oil companies, the biggest anywhere in the world, go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure... and start making money for the country in Venezuela.” [08:53]

• Venezuelan public response: Focused on survival, but polarized feelings about U.S. control.

  • Some adamantly reject external control: “Venezuela is for Venezuelans.”
  • Others welcome U.S. intervention if it means Maduro is gone.

• Deep uncertainty about what "U.S. running the country" actually means: governance, advisorship, or direct political involvement?

  • “No one knows what running the country means.” – Ana Vanessa Herrero [09:18]

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V. What Do Venezuelans Want Next?

Timestamps: 10:46–12:15

• Widespread hope for genuine elections.
  • The Constitution specifies interim president must call elections in 30 days in case of a total void of power.
• However, doubt abounds about practical outcomes, given unprecedented situation.
• General atmosphere: People remain in shock, focusing on stocking up essentials rather than engaging fully in political debates.

Quote:
“Venezuelans right now are trying to get out of the state of shock and they're trying to get as much food and water as they can because they're accustomed to problems, turmoil and tragedy.” – Ana Vanessa Herrero [12:07]

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VI. U.S. Interventions in Historical Context

Guest: Greg Grandin, Yale Historian
Timestamps: 16:00–25:48

The American Playbook in Latin America

• U.S. has intervened in nearly every country in Central and South America since the late 19th century.

  • “There is no country in which the United States hasn't intervened in South America.” – Greg Grandin [16:21]

• The most immediate historical parallel:

  • The 1989 Invasion of Panama (Noriega’s capture):
    • “It was a showcase of Colin Powell's exit strategy doctrine... and it was also the first that eventually became understood as an intervention to install democracy...” [18:30]
    • It served as a turning point where the U.S. increasingly acted unilaterally, outside international consensus.

Oil as Justification—and Trump’s Unfiltered Approach

• Unlike previous U.S. interventions, Trump is notably explicit about economic motives.

  • “This weekend, President Trump came out and he said, we want the oil. That's why we did this.” – Noel King [19:44]

• Grandin’s analysis:

  • Oil is important, but “Trump’s talking about oil was... a way of providing fig leaf for his America First base.” [20:01]
  • The language appeals to nationalist, “aggrieved” sectors and revives the spirit of the Monroe Doctrine: U.S. as hemispheric police.

Sovereignty vs. Intervention

Debating the Justification

• When challenged about whether removing Maduro was the "right thing," Grandin says:

  • “You do not have to carry water for Nicolas Maduro... to hold on to the ideal of national sovereignty. There is a system of international law which recognizes the sovereignty of nations. The absolute sovereignty of nations shouldn't be left to the judgment of one nation.” [22:08]

• Grandin warns that Trump's bluntness exposes the core logic of power and plunder at the heart of prior, more veiled interventions.

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“Cuba Next?”: Fear and Regional Implications

Timestamps: 23:29–25:48

• Latin America is suddenly on edge over where the U.S. might intervene next:

  • “If I lived in Havana and I was in the government, I'd be concerned at least a little bit.” – Greg Grandin [23:43]
  • Quote from Senator Marco Rubio: “Cuba is a disaster. It's run by incompetent, senile men... It has no economy.” [23:46]

• Grandin’s forecast:

  • The Trump administration wants to bring all of Latin America “to heel,” including not just Venezuela, Cuba, and Nicaragua but even more moderate or left-leaning governments in Brazil and Mexico.
  • It’s about “demonstrations of power and will,” not solely geopolitical or economic interests.

Warning:
“Latin America really is on a knife's edge.” – Greg Grandin [25:47]

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Notable Quotes

• Ana Vanessa Herrero:

  • “Such calm after such storm is not something that you would expect.” [04:35]
  • “People are trying to get back to normal... But what is normal exactly?” [03:08]

• President Trump:

  • “We're going to have our very large United States oil companies... fix the badly broken infrastructure... and start making money for the country in Venezuela.” [08:53]

• Greg Grandin:

  • “There is no country in which the United States hasn't intervened in South America.” [16:21]
  • “Trump pulls out some of the implicit or repressed premises... and just says them out loud.” [22:50]
  • “Latin America really is on a knife’s edge.” [25:47]

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Important Segment Timestamps

• 01:39 – Ana Vanessa Herrero describes Caracas’s atmosphere after Maduro captured
• 05:34–08:44 – Discussion of Delsey Rodríguez, her history, and possible motives
• 08:53 – Trump’s explicit oil ambition for Venezuela
• 10:46–12:15 – The Venezuelan desire for fair elections
• 16:20–19:29 – Grandin details U.S. history of regime change and Panama parallel
• 19:44–21:39 – Unusually overt US rhetoric around oil as a motive
• 22:08–23:29 – Sovereignty, international law, and justification debates
• 24:02–25:48 – Regional implications and “Cuba next” anxiety

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Conclusion

This episode paints a picture of a Venezuelan populace suspended between shock and hope, uncertain of whether recent American intervention will bring opportunity or new instability. The U.S. approach under President Trump harkens back to a long and checkered history of intervention in Latin America, but with uniquely forthright rhetoric about resources and dominance. As the region braces for further fallout, the world is left to wonder how history will judge these unprecedented days—and whether the people of Venezuela will finally have the agency to determine their own future.

Transcript

[A]

The fallout of the US Capture and extradition of Nicolas Maduro was felt globally. Today, Maduro appeared in court in New York City. Also in New York, the UN Security Council met to discuss whether President Trump's actions were legal. Now Colombia demanded that meeting. President Trump later threatened Colombia's president.

[B]

Colombia is very sick, too, run by a sick man who likes making cocaine and selling it to the United States. And he's not going to be doing it very long, let me tell you.

[A]

Right after that. Aboard Air Force One, Trump said this.

[B]

Cuba is ready to fall.

[A]

In the 48 hours or so since Maduro's capture, Trump has also threatened Greenland, Mexico and Iran. We're going to have more on that in the coming days. But today on TODAY Explained, we take you to Venezuela to hear how people there are reacting to Maduro's downfall. AI agents are getting pretty impressive. You might not even realize you're listening.

[B]

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[A]

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[C]

Estares cuchando a hoy explicado. Today explains.

[A]

Ana Vanessa Herrero, freelance reporter in Caracas. It's great to be able to talk to you, especially since you filled us in on what was going on in Venezuela just a few weeks ago. Why don't we do this? Tell me where you are right now and what's going on.

[C]

Well, right now I'm in the capital city of Caracas and we'll still, you know, it's what's going on? Everything's going on. I mean, since Saturday, people have been, you know, wondering what is going to happen next. In just 48 hours, Venezuelans experience not only the first bombing and the first glimpse of war that they have experienced for hundreds of years now, but also they had to face the fact that Nicolas Maduro is no longer here. And that happened just in a couple of hours. And now we are waiting to see if Delcey Rodriguez is going to finally be formally sworn in as the new interim president. To do so, she would the national assembly, the government basically would have to acknowledge and accept that Nicolas Maduro's absence is permanent. And that is huge. That is an historic moment for Venezuelans who oppose Maduro, but also for those who follow him.

[A]

What are people in the streets saying? And is it safe to be out on the street today?

[C]

It is. I mean, it is. You know, what would you expect after severe bombing in the middle of the night and then, you know, the capture of the running president? You would expect not to step outside Right. It was a surprise for sure. But, you know, I was very careful with. I tried to wait as long as I could to see what was going on. And then, to my surprise, no military on the streets, no cops on the streets, no danger whatsoever. People just wondering and trying to line up in front of supermarkets, pharmacies, to get water, food supplies, whatever they could just to avoid being off guard in case something else happened. And the same image was repeated the next day on Sunday. And now today, people are just trying to get back to normal. We see malls opening in a shorter period of time, of course, maybe for a few hours. But, you know, even Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino asked Venezuelans to just continue, basically, I'm paraphrasing, but continue with their lives. And what is normal exactly? After what I just, you know, explained and what I witnessed. And people are trying to do their best, I still see people running first to the supermarkets and pharmacies. You know, such calm after such storm is not something that you would expect. And, you know, some people tell me that it's not normal. I spoke to someone, to an elderly woman, and she said in all of her years living in Venezuela and being born here, you know, she felt such stress that she just wanted to, like, go to sleep and figure it out later. And I hear a lot of people are having trouble sleeping. They're not feeling safe going to bed because, you know, they're scared that the bombings could resume. And, I mean, even I have to be honest with you, even when I hear a sound that, you know, sounds like a plane, I immediately start, like, looking around, getting nervous, trying to figure out what's going on.

[A]

All right, so here in the US we're puzzling over what it means that President Trump says the US Is going to run Venezuela. It sounds like in Venezuela you are no clearer on what Trump is intending. But let's talk about Delsey Rodriguez, right, because Delsey Rodriguez, as you said, expected to be sworn. And we've known this since shortly after Maduro was captured. Who is this woman and who is she aligned with?

[C]

Well, Delsey Rodriguez has been a long time critic of not only the US Policies against Venezuela, but against South America. And she has been a fierce critic of Trump and Trump's approach against Nicolas Maduro. And she has a very, very strong leftist background. She's the daughter of a leftist leader, and she was very, extremely close to Hugo Chavez, who gave her the first chance to be part of the government with him. And then she became a strong name. She became a powerful name after Chavez died working closely with Nicolas Maduro. So no wonder. Why her sudden change of tone? It's raising some eyebrows around.

[A]

Tell me what she's been saying. You say her tone is changing. What exactly has been happening with her?

[C]

Well, just to give you an example, on Saturday she said unico Presidente de.

[A]

Venezuela, declaring Nicolas Maduro is the only president of Venezuela.

[C]

She said that what happened to Maduro was a kidnapping and it was illeg. And she urged the US Government and Trump to bring him back to Venezuela. And then less than 24 hours later, or maybe a day later, she sat down with all the ministers of the former Maduro's government and she called the U.S. invited the U.S. to work together in a joint agenda. And she didn't explain further. But I think there's no need. That phrase alone was enough to raise some eyebrows.

[A]

What do you think happened exactly? Why'd she change her tune?

[C]

I'm not sure, but I can suspect that, you know, the threats that Donald Trump made against her, if she didn't comply, had something to do with it. I've been talking to a lot of people on the ground here, regular Venezuelans, and they have thoughts, and some of those are that she was somehow involved in what happened to Nicolas Maduro, that maybe she was part of a plan to us Maduro of power. We don't know. We have no idea if that is true. That is like something people think. Because of course, as I'm telling you, no one believed that she could have been the one to invite the US like that. Now, let's just be super clear. That was just a small statement that she gave. And how this is going to be translated into the future, we don't know. I mean, is she going to, you know, change laws to favor the U.S. is she going to resume the diplomatic relations between the US And Venezuela? We have no idea what working together on a joint agenda means. But, but for sure, it's interesting, right, to hear her.

[A]

Yeah, it certainly is. And we do know, we do know what is motivating the United States here in part because President Trump came right out on Saturday, gave a press conference.

[B]

And said, we're going to have our very large United States oil companies, the biggest anywhere in the world, go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure, the oil infrastructure, and start making money for the country in Venezuela.

[A]

How did people hear that remark? What was the response?

[C]

Well, you know, people are so focused on the here and now and trying to mostly, mostly immediately after the attack, how to survive the next few hours and days that that wasn't part of the conversation. Up until very recently. I spoke to a lot, as I was telling you, I have been speaking, talking to a lot of people on the ground. And, you know, some of them are addressing that issue, but not all of them. So the ones who are tell me that, you know, that some of them say they dropped the line right there, that they don't want anyone running the country, that Venezuela is for Venezuelans. And on the other hand, you have the other extreme and it's people saying, you know, what, if the US Wants to run the country, then great, as long as they didn't do it with Nicolas Maduro. And really no one, what they all agree on is that they really don't know what that means running the country. Does it mean that they're going to be actively part of a government? Are they going to be advisors to the new government? Are they going to make decisions on, for example, elections, which is a huge and basic and key element right here. When we address and when we see the future of Venezuela, we don't know. And I think no one knows.

[A]

Hmm. And so lastly, Ana, what are people hoping for next? When you ask people what they would like to see happen, what do you hear?

[C]

Well, they would like elections. And that is a very popular sense. And the mood around people who are actually talking about the future. Elections are a huge part of it. And, you know, in 2024, as you can recall, Venezuela had presidential elections that those results were not recognized by Nicolas Maduro, who claimed himself as a victor without any proof. Now, I think people have that feeling of we now need our fair election again. I mean, we need to. And the Constitution says that in case of an absolute total void of power in the presidency, then the vice president should fill that void and immediate and call for elections in the next 30 days. We don't know if that is going to happen because, you know, the circumstances right now are unprecedented for Venezuelans. So we don't really know what's going to happen. But elections for sure are a huge part of the conversation. But yet again, just to be clear, Venezuelans right now are trying to get out of the state of shock and they're trying to get as much food and water as they can because they're accustomed to problems, turmoil and tragedy. And they, you know, they feel that something else might happen.

[A]

Ana, Vanessa Herrero is in Caracas. Thank you so much for taking the time, Anna. Vanessa, and be safe, please.

[C]

Thank you.

[A]

When we come back, over its long history, the United States has intervened in other countries in this region in very similar ways. Can you name all the countries.

[C]

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[C]

This is today Explained.

[A]

Greg Grandin is a historian at Yale and the author of America, America. All right, so Greg, the United States has a long history of intervening or meddling in Central and South America. Can you list every country where the US has done something akin to what we just did in Venezuela?

[B]

No.

[A]

Okay.

[B]

We don't have enough time. We don't have enough time. I can give you the. I can list the countries in which we haven't intervened, which would be a couple of small British Commonwealth Islands. I mean, there is no country in which the United States hasn't intervened in South America. In Central America, by some counts, between 1898 and 1998, 1992, the United States successfully was involved in over 40 regime changes. So there is no Every country in Latin in South America has had some intervention. Every country in Central America and of course, Mexico and quite a number of countries in the Caribbean.

[A]

As you watch this news unfold over the weekend, which of those examples from the past felt the most analogous? Where did you say, oh, we are just doing this again?

[B]

Well, that is what it's like living in this moment. It's a little bit of a bricolage. You see elements of all different interventions. I mean, certainly the invasion of Panama, one that comes up immediately. 25,000American troops hit the Central American country hard in the middle of the night. It was a coordinated attack with mechanized divisions, special forces, paratroop drops and air cover.

[C]

Panama's General Manuel Noriega has taken shelter from the American forces at the Vatican's mission in Panama.

[B]

If diplomacy can't move Noriega, why not try rock music, playing it at full.

[C]

Volume outside the Vatican Embassy, where he remains holed up.

[B]

Good morning, Panama. The United States sent marines into Panama to capture Manuel Noriega, who in the 1980s, during the late Cold War, was a CIA asset. The problem was also that he was deeply involved with a lot of drugs, drug running, as are a number of US Allies during this period. But Manuel Norega is a perfect example of this, and he had served his purposes by the end of the Cold War. President Bush announced Noriega's surrender tonight from the White house. On Wednesday, December 20, I ordered US troops to Panama with four objectives. It was important for a number of reasons. One, it was a showcase of Colin Powell's exit strategy doctrine that you had to have a clear idea of what you were going in for and what you were getting out for. And it was also the first that eventually became understood as an intervention to install democracy, to defend democracy as opposed to national security or anti communism. And it was a unilateral intervention. Everybody, every country in the oas, Organization of American States was opposed to it. The United nations was opposed to it. And so many observers see this as a. As a kind of turning point leading to Iraq in 2003, in the sense that it was the beginning of the United States acting unilaterally or outside the channels of the United nations or the Organization of American States.

[A]

You know, I'm old enough to remember Iraq. What I don't remember is the United States, its leadership, being so explicit about the oil.

[B]

Disarm Iraq to free its people and to defend the world from grave danger.

[A]

This weekend, President Trump came out and he said, we want the oil. That's why we did this.

[B]

Yeah. You know, they stole our oil. We built that whole industry there, and they just took it over like we were nothing. And we had a president.

[A]

Did that surprise you?

[B]

No. And I don't think. I'm not one of these scholars who think that it's all. It's all about the oil. Obviously, oil is important. Oil plays a factor, but there's lots of ways of getting oil right. And the Trump administration could have negotiated with Maduro, as elements within the administration wanted to do. I think Trump's talking about oil was kind of a way of providing fig leaf for his America first base. Why is running a country in South America America First? Well, I think it is because we want to surround ourself with good neighbors. We want to surround ourself with stability. We want to surround ourselves with energy. You know, a lot of those. A lot of those nationalists, they don't want to. They don't want a regime change. They don't want to rebuild world economies and have the United States superintend a global economy. But when you put it in tough guy terms and when you put it in the terms of plunder and we're going to take the oil, you know, it resonates with certain sectors of America first nationalism and aggrieved nationalism. We need that for ourselves. We need that for the world, and we want to make sure we can protect it. So I'm not saying oil wasn't important, but I'm saying Trump's move from immigration to drugs is looking for a justification, and then to oil was really just a kind of trying out different ways of justifying what they wanted. To do. And it goes back to this idea of the Monroe Doctrine that the United States will police the hemisphere. They now call it the Donroe document. I don't know.

[A]

Let me ask you about an argument that I saw circulating this weekend. Nicolas Maduro was in power in Venezuela for more than 10 years. During this time, as you know, the economy craters. Eight million people flee. They flee repression, they flee censorship, fake elections, people being disappeared into prisons and tortured. What do you say to the argument that this was just the right thing for the United States of America to do?

[B]

You do not have to carry water for Nicolas Maduro. You do not have to support or defend Nicolas Maduro in any way to hold on to the ideal of national sovereignty. There is a system of international law which recognizes the sovereignty of nations. The absolute sovereignty of nations shouldn't be left to the judgment of one nation. International law is something that is always being destroyed. It's a phrase that people use. It weakens international law. International has always been weakened. But this certainly is a major step in that direction. The idea that the United States can claim for itself the sole jurisdiction and power to decide what country's sovereignty is legitimate and then to go a step further and then to kind of cosplay colonial plundering and saying, we're doing it because of the oil. We're not doing it because of democracy. We're not doing it because of we care about human rights. We're doing it because we want to get the oil. I mean, I think that's what Trump brings to the table. He pulls out the kind of some of the implicit or repressed premises of the power dynamics of the international order and just says them out loud.

[A]

A couple hours after this news broke on Saturday, I got a text from a Cuban American friend. And the text just said, cuba next. And, you know, I watched the president's press conference.

[B]

Yeah. Look, if I lived in Havana and I was in the government, I'd be.

[A]

Concerned at least a little bit. Heard Marco Rubio speak.

[B]

Cuba is a disaster. It's run by incompetent, senile men, and in some cases, not senile, but incompetent nonetheless. It has no economy.

[A]

A lot of people started saying that day, cuba next. What do you think is coming next?

[B]

I do think the long game ultimately goes beyond Cuba. I think Cuba may be next, but what we see in the Trump administration is an attempt to bring Latin America to heel. Not just Cuba, not just Venezuela, not just Nicaragua, but also what we might call these social democratic regimes, the Workers Party governed by Lula in Brazil and Claudia Sheinbaum in Mexico. These represent not so much, not so much confrontational challenges to the United States, but, but they, they represent a kind of untolerable independence and autonomy. You know, a country like Brazil is insisting on, on doing business with China, for instance, and finding ways to weaken U. S Economic influence so it could diversify its trading partners. These are, these are totally legitimate actions. But if we envision Latin America as a place that Trump wants to show dominance, then they're intolerable. What it really is is about demonstrations of power and will. You know, Haigs had said the other day that nothing can prevent us from doing what we want in Latin America. And Trump said effectively the same thing. This is really about bringing Latin America, all of Latin America to heal and bringing Trump allies to power. Latin America really is on a knife's edge.

[A]

Greg Grandin, he's a historian at Yale America America is the book. I enjoyed it. I recommend it. Arianna Espudu and Peter Balanon Rosen produced today's show. Amina El Saadi edited Patrick Boyd engineered and fact checking was a big old team effort. I'm Noel King. It's today, explained.

[B]

Sam.