Today, Explained – “When your college closes”

Date: April 23, 2026
Host: Sean Rameswaram
Guest: Jon Marcus (Senior Higher Education Reporter, The Hechinger Report)

Episode Overview

This episode explores the growing crisis of small college closures in the United States, using Hampshire College’s impending shutdown as a case study. Host Sean Rameswaram and guest Jon Marcus discuss the reasons behind this trend—demographic shifts, mounting debt, waning public trust, and political forces—and examine what happens to students caught up in closures. They also address the harms—both personal and societal—caused by the loss of regional colleges, and spotlight some institutional reforms aiming to stem the tide.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

The Hampshire College Closure as a Sign of a Larger Trend

• Hampshire’s Backstory: Financial issues have long plagued Hampshire, including small endowment, high debt ($21 million), and rapidly declining enrollment (<800 students), despite prominent creative alumni.
  • (03:01) Jon Marcus: “...at Hampshire specifically...I looked up the numbers. They were giving back more than 75% of their revenue in the form of discounts just to continue to get people to come there and fill seats.”
• Tuition Discounting: Nearly all students receive scholarships/discounts; Hampshire’s was 75%. National average is over 50%. “If you were a private business and you gave back 50% of your revenue, you'd be out of business. And that's what's happening...” [04:38]
• Scope of Closures: Since the pandemic, ~100 colleges have closed; estimate that 442 (one-quarter of all private nonprofits) are at risk, with 120 at severe risk. [05:29]

Factors Driving the Crisis

• The “Demographic Cliff”: Fewer 18-year-olds (post-Great Recession birth drop) start hitting colleges in Fall 2026.
  • (06:21) Jon Marcus: “So in 2026 is when that hits us 18 years later...The country is heading towards a cliff, a demographic cliff...”
• Enrollment Down, Costs Up:
  • % of high school grads going directly to college dropped from 70% (2016) to just above 60% now. [06:59]
  • Increased skepticism about the cost and ROI of a college degree.
• Political and Policy Factors:
  • Federal aid during Covid staved off closures, but is now disappearing.
  • Crackdown on international student visas hits small colleges hard. 36% decline in new visas last year. [08:11]
• “Perfect storm”: Overextended, indebted colleges facing lower demand and fewer high-paying students. [08:59]

What Happens to Affected Students?

• Most lose out. Research: half transfer, half drop out; of the transfer group, half never finish (“Nothing good happens to those students.” [09:17])
• Problems: cost, loss of credits, closed transfers, or new college closures.
• Cycle: some students, like those recruited from ideological shakeups at other colleges (e.g., New College in Florida), get hit by closure twice. [10:14]
• New, anxious questions from prospective parents: “Will this college still be here in four years?” [10:48]

Societal Consequences of Losing Small Colleges

• Local Economic Damage: Lost jobs, plummeting housing values—especially in rural or aging communities where college is the economic anchor. [11:18]
• National Impact: Declining college attendance while global competitors surge means a threat to American economic and social competitiveness.
  • (12:11) Jon Marcus: “We’re losing the competitive edge that we’ve always had by having a well educated, innovative and entrepreneurial population.”
• Loss of Young Talent Pipelines: Fewer graduates staying, working, or starting businesses in these small towns. [12:30]
• Doom Loop: Several small towns/cities risk entering a “death spiral” as schools fold and community vitality ebbs. [13:00]

Public Attitudes and Culture Wars

• Increasing perception that college is elitist, liberal, unnecessary for all but a few professions. [13:59]
• Marcus: “There’s a real antipathy toward colleges among some people in the public who feel that they are elitist...I don't think colleges have done a very good job at sort of counteracting that narrative. But they're also really important.” [13:59]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Hampshire’s Financial Reality
  • Jon Marcus (04:15): “The discount rate at colleges and universities is more than 50%. So if you were a private business and you gave back 50% of your revenue, you'd be out of business.”
• On Student Outcomes After Closure
  • Jon Marcus (09:17): “Nothing good. Nothing good happens to those students...Of the half that transfer, half of them never graduate.”
• On Demographic Cliff
  • Jon Marcus (06:21): “So in 2026 is when that [dropoff] hits us 18 years later...We’re running out of 18-year-olds.”
• On Social Impact
  • Jon Marcus (12:20): “A lot of these colleges are in remote, isolated places, often rural, and they draw young people to these communities who after they graduate, they stay and they create businesses or they work in jobs...All of these colleges that have closed is another kind of ending of the pipeline that was bringing in young people...”
• On Negotiating Aid
  • Jon Marcus (26:40): “These colleges increasingly need you more than you need them...Number one thing we tell people is negotiate for more. Especially right now, when it’s a buyer’s market, they will give you more financial aid. They need you.”

[18:29] Solutions: How Colleges Can Adapt

Three-Year Bachelor’s Degree

• A Major Change: Accreditors now allow for bachelor’s degrees requiring just 90 credits (vs. 120), finished in three years (“applied,” “accelerated,” or “career-focused”).
• Targeted at high-demand fields: e.g., criminal justice, graphic design, some health care roles.
• Employer Reception: Generally positive; grad schools vary, but are reconsidering policies as more students opt for this path. [21:56]
• (19:58) Jon Marcus: “This could work. It’s the first new kind of degree since essentially the advent of the community college.”
• 60 colleges already offering or planning to offer it.

Other Institutional Reforms

• Skills-Based Transcripts: Some liberal arts colleges (e.g., Brandeis) experimenting with an additional transcript for skills—both ‘soft’ (communication, collaboration) and technical (e.g., AI literacy).
  • (24:14) Jon Marcus: “That is a really interesting idea...improving the way people look at liberal arts by saying you didn’t just take philosophy, you learned critical thinking and how to communicate and how to write.”
• Changing Student Demographics: Shift away from traditional residential models, more adult learners, nontraditional paths.
  • Jon Marcus (25:07): “There's just going to be fewer students...the proportion of students...enrolled in those kinds of institutions will be much, much lower because they're gonna have a lot more choice.”

[25:40] Advice for Prospective Students

• The power dynamic has shifted: “These colleges increasingly need you more than you need them.”
• The average acceptance rate for colleges is now over 70%—far easier than Ivy League rates.
• Always negotiate for more financial aid; it’s a buyer’s market.
  • (26:40) Jon Marcus: “Pick the one that's going to be best for you...They will give you more financial aid. They need you.”

Segment Timestamps

• [00:00–02:12]: Introduction & context: The Hampshire closure as a pivot to a larger college closure crisis.
• [02:12–05:18]: Hampshire’s story: Fame, finances, debt, tuition discounting.
• [05:29–09:08]: Scope and reasons for crisis: closures since pandemic, demographic cliff, cost/ROI skepticism, policy/political factors, international student crackdown.
• [09:08–10:53]: The student experience when a college closes; loss of credits; cycle with multiple closures.
• [10:53–14:39]: Societal and personal consequences; economic ripple effects; national competitiveness; shifting public attitudes.
• [18:29–24:41]: Solutions and reforms: 3-year degree, skills transcripts, nontraditional education paths.
• [25:40–27:16]: Student advice: power dynamics, negotiating aid, buyer’s market.

Summary

This episode offers a grounded, empathetic look at a little-reported aspect of the higher education crisis. Through the lens of Hampshire College’s closure, Sean Rameswaram and Jon Marcus dissect the intertwining issues—demographic shifts, unsustainable debt, vanishing confidence in ROI, political headwinds, and changing student needs—that imperil the survival of hundreds of small colleges. The episode doesn’t just sound the alarm, but also highlights pragmatic experiments (accelerated degrees, skills-based transcripts) and practical advice: negotiate for aid, realize the market has shifted, and understand both the risks and the real, ongoing value of a college education—even as that concept rapidly evolves in twenty-first-century America.