Burnham byelection: could Makerfield decide the next PM? – The Latest

Summary

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Today in Focus: Burnham Byelection – The Small Town That Could Decide the Next PM (May 15, 2026)

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This episode dives into the high-stakes by-election in Makerfield, Greater Manchester, where Mayor Andy Burnham aims to return to Parliament by contesting the Labour seat vacated by Josh Simons. With the surging Reform UK party eyeing an upset, the constituency has become a crucial battleground that could shape the future of the Labour government and potentially decide the next Prime Minister. Reporter Hannah L Othman joins host Lucy Hoff live from the area, offering on-the-ground insights into the mood, party strategies, and the local view of Burnham and his rivals.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

Setting the Stage in Makerfield

• Political Landscape ([02:03])

  • Makerfield is on the outskirts of Greater Manchester, in Wigan borough.
  • Contrasts recent Gorton and Denton by-election: Here the Greens aren’t contenders; it’s a straight Labour vs. Reform fight.
  • The area is classic working-class Labour but has seen Reform UK gaining ground. In the last council elections, Reform won 24/25 seats, with the last going to an Independent—Labour got none.

  “With any other candidate, we would be anticipating that...Labour wouldn’t even be in contention. It would just be a fairly easy victory for Reform.”
  – Hannah L Othman (02:37)

The Andy Burnham Factor

• Personal Connection & Local Reputation ([04:18], [04:51])

  • Burnham’s local roots are a major asset: he grew up nearby and locals view him as "one of us."
  • Support seems more for Burnham as a person than Labour as a party.
  • His record as Greater Manchester mayor, particularly on public transport, resonates locally.

  “They seem to have a sense that Andy Burnham is on their side and they've said, you know, he's a local lad, he's one of us. He understands what it's like to be a working-class person. He understands what it's like to be struggling…”
  – Hannah L Othman (04:51)

• Mixed Feelings and Disillusionment ([05:19])

  • Not all residents are uniformly behind Burnham or Labour.
  • There's notable support for Reform, and some voters are so disillusioned that they may abstain even if they like Burnham.

  "I found people who are voting Reform and I've also found people who are so disillusioned with Labour that even though they do quite like Andy Burnham, they feel like they can't vote and they're probably not going to vote at all." – Hannah L Othman (05:19)

No Safe Seats & Reform’s Tactics

• Changing Political Certainties ([06:03])

  • With a slim majority (about 5,000 in the 2024 election), even this seat, previously considered safe, is up for grabs.
  • Labour’s traditional stronghold faces serious challenge from Reform.

  “There’s no such thing as a safe seat in Manchester...they’re all threatened by either Reform or the Greens.”
  – Hannah L Othman (05:55)

• Reform UK’s Strategy ([06:16])

  • After disappointing results in Gorton and Denton with a "celebrity" candidate, Reform plans to choose someone hyper-local to counter Burnham’s hometown appeal.
  • Party leadership, including Richard Tice, are set to throw considerable resources at the race.

  “They want to find someone hyperlocal, which I think sounds like it’s to counter this idea that Andy Burnham is a real local lad who understands Makerfield.”
  – Lucy Hoff (06:44)

Why Makerfield? Labour’s Calculations

• Possible Alternative Seats ([06:53])

  • Other safer seats (like Afzal Khan’s in Rusholme or Graham Stringer’s in Manchester Blackley) were floated for Burnham, but Makerfield represents a more direct fight with Reform.

• Timing & Process ([08:08])

  • Josh Simons must formally resign, triggering the by-election process. Candidate selections and the campaign will follow, likely leading to a vote in 6–8 weeks.
  • Labour will almost certainly select Burnham, seeing him as their best chance.

  “We're looking at maybe six to eight weeks, I think, for a by-election.”
  – Hannah L Othman (08:34)

National Stakes for Labour & Burnham

• Labour’s Mobilization ([08:36])

  • Central party leadership is moving significant resources into Makerfield to demonstrate their ability to defeat Reform and shore up credibility for a possible future PM.

  “All indications from Labour are that they are going to really, really fight this. They will want to prove that they can beat Reform.”
  – Hannah L Othman (08:57)

• Impact if Burnham Wins – or Loses ([09:18])

  • Burnham is leaving a major role as metro mayor, risking that Labour could lose that high-profile post if he shifts to Parliament.
  • Manchester mayoral elections may still favor Labour, due to the return of the supplementary vote and the city’s political demographics.

  “The mayoralty...is one of the most important in the country, arguably. I think there...is a good chance that Labour will hold that mayoralty.”
  – Hannah L Othman (10:10)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Reform’s surge in Makerfield:
  “At the council elections last week, Reform won 24 out of 25 seats. And the final seat went to an Independent. So Labour literally walked away with nothing.”
  – Hannah L Othman (02:29)

• On local perceptions of Andy Burnham:
  “He’s a local lad, he’s one of us. He understands what it’s like to be a working-class person. He understands what it’s like to be struggling to put food on the table.”
  – Hannah L Othman (04:51)

• On the uncertainty for Labour:
  “There’s more support here for Andy Burnham than I thought there might be...It’s definitely a tougher battle than some of the seats that were being talked about that he may run in.”
  – Hannah L Othman (05:32)

• On Labour’s determination:
  “They’re going to really, really fight this. I think they will want to prove that they can beat Reform. They don’t want to concede that ground.”
  – Hannah L Othman (08:57)

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Important Timestamps & Segments

• [02:03] – Makerfield’s political context and Reform UK gains
• [04:18] – Community sentiment for Andy Burnham
• [05:19] – Disillusioned Labour voters and Reform support
• [06:16] – Reform UK strategy for the by-election
• [08:08] – Timeline and process for the upcoming by-election
• [08:36] – Labour’s campaign intensity and central support
• [09:18] – Risks and dynamics for the Greater Manchester mayoralty

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Conclusion

The Makerfield byelection is shaping up as an existential showdown between Labour's local hero Andy Burnham and a reinvigorated Reform UK. With the by-election still weeks away and campaigning yet to reach full intensity, both public sentiment and political calculation are in flux. For Labour, the race is not just about one seat, but about holding ground in the North, countering the rise of Reform, and deciding who might be Britain’s next prime minister.

Host: Lucy Hoff
Guest: Hannah L Othman, North of England correspondent

Transcript

[Lucy Hoff]

This is the guardian.

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[Hannah L Othman]

The senses it feels quite positive for Andy Vernon. This is his home turf, just. And they've said, you know, he's a local lad, he's one of us, he understands what it's like. The Labour Party MP Josh Simons is

[Kai Wright]

standing down as the MP in Makerfield in the northwest, in the Wigan area, to make way for Andy Burnham.

[Hannah L Othman]

It's been harder to find support for reform than I thought and I don't think that it's because of the support for Labour, but it's because of the support for Andy Burnham. It's not unanimous by any means. So that may change when reform starts, start turning up, throwing everything at it, as I'm sure they will.

[Lucy Hoff]

The Manchester Mayor, Andy Burnham has found a route back to Parliament. But he needs to win a critical by election first that Reform are set to throw the kitchen sink at from the Guardians today. In Focus this is the latest with me, Lucy Hoff. Well, I'm joined by Hannah L Othman, literally on the road in Makerfield where this very critical by election is soon to take place, where Josh Simons, the Labour mp has agreed to down to pave the way for the mayor of Greater Manchester to stand for a seat in Parliament. First of all, Hannah, just, just tell me a bit about Makerfield, what it's like as a constituency.

[Hannah L Othman]

So Makerfield sort of on the outskirts of Greater Manchester is in the borough of Wigan. It's a whole different sort of political landscape to where we had that very recent by election, which was also in Manchester, in Gorton and Denton. But this is very different. The Greens are not really in contention here. It's likely to straight Labour reform fight. It's I suppose what you'd call your traditional working class Labour voters. But you know, it's, it's exactly the type of place where reform has been gaining ground from Labour as opposed to say from the Conservatives. At the council elections last week, reform won 24 out of 25 seats. And the final seat went to an Independent. So Labour literally walked away with nothing. And I think with any other candidate, we would be anticipating that that Labour wouldn't even be in contention. It would just be a fairly easy victory for reform.

[Lucy Hoff]

There's been discussion about there's really no such thing as a totally safe seat for Andy Burnham to run in, in the Greater Manchester area anymore. Given how strongly reform did in the elections last week, it must be a very surreal thing for the people living in the constituencies of Makerfield to suddenly have the eyes of the world, of the country on them as the defining not just who could be the next Prime Minister, but also the future of the Labour government. What kinds of conversations are you having with people about the level of support they have for Andy Burnham?

[Hannah L Othman]

Well, we're obviously in day one. The by election's not even been called yet, or maybe day one and a half, if you count yesterday. And there isn't that sense of by election fatigue. So anyone who has lived somewhere, including me, I live in Levenshume, which is in the Gorton and Denton constituency. So I'm speaking from firsthand experience, very recent experience. But anyone who has lived in somewhere with a very hotly contested by election will know that people get sick of it quite quickly. The sort of avalanche of literature, leaflets, people knocking on your door and of course, all the journalists descending. I can be one to talk, but, yeah, we've not quite seen that yet. Everyone's really happy to chat. It's a lovely sunny day. Most people want to talk to us.

[Lucy Hoff]

And what are they telling you?

[Hannah L Othman]

Well, the senses. It feels quite positive for Andy Burnham. You know, if you look at the numbers, if you look at what happened last we. The majority at the 2024 election as well is only just over 5,000, which is, you know, pretty small in today's standards. But it's been harder to find support for reform than I thought, and I don't think that it's because the support for Labour, but it's because of support for Andy Burnham. Yeah, this is his home turf. He lives just over the constituency border. But people very much see him as being from here.

[Lucy Hoff]

Right.

[Hannah L Othman]

Obviously he's standing on his record as mayor. People have talked about things that he's done around public trans sport, but they've also. They seem to have a sense that Andy Burnham is on their side and they've said, you know, he's a local lad, he's one of us. He understands what it's like to be a workingclass person. He understands what it's like to be struggling to put food on the table. These are literally like quotes from conversations that I've had today. It's not unanimous by any means. I. I found people who are voting reform and I've also found people who are so disillusioned with labor that even though they do quite like Andy Burnham, they feel like they can't vote and they're probably not going to vote at all.

[Lucy Hoff]

Right.

[Hannah L Othman]

So that, you know, still, you know, as I say, we're very, very early days and there's everything to play for, but I think there's more support here for Andy Burnham than I thought there might be from the outset. It's definitely a tougher battle than some of the seats that were being talked about that he may run in. As you say, there's no such thing as a safe seat in Manchester. You know, they're all threatened by either Reform or the Greens. But it does feel that, you know, he does stand a chance of winning this.

[Lucy Hoff]

Yeah. Because it wasn't Andy Burnham's first choice of where he would stand, was it? As you say, it's got a sizable majority, but not huge, that 5,000 and Josh Simons, the former director of Labour Together, who's agreed to stand down. We don't know the circumstances of what that pact might have been or what's in it for Josh Simons. But just to talk about the reform campaign, Richard Tice of Reform UK was on the radio this morning and it just sounds like they are going to fight this as hard as they possibly can. They don't want to repeat the mistakes of the Gorton and Denton by election, where they ran a sort of Reform UK celebrity in the form of Matt Goodwin. They want to find someone hyperlocal, which I think sounds like it's to counter this idea that Andy Burnham is a real local lad who understands Makerfield.

[Hannah L Othman]

You know, there were other. Various other seats that were talked about. Again, so much of it is rumours, we don't know how much is true. But Afzal Khan seat in Rush Home, that would have been a much easier one, I think, for Burnham. Manchester, Blakeley, Graham Stringer seat. That seat was also mentioned again. That's much safer. Afzal seat, probably that would have been a battle against the Greens and Stringer seat would have been against Reform. But Reform are. This is an easier contest for them than, you know, than a lot of the seats that I've heard discussed. We're expecting a Reform candidate to be announced potentially as early as Sunday.

[Lucy Hoff]

Okay.

[Hannah L Othman]

You know, I was Talking earlier to just some other journalists who are here today. And we said, you know, it does feel very good for Andy Burnham at the minute, but also he's the one known candidate, so that may change when reforms start turning up. Throwing everything at it, as I'm sure they will.

[Lucy Hoff]

Yeah. Regular trips from Nigel Farage to Makerfield. One imagines another sort of reform top brass in terms of the timetable. So you say, say Reform UK could have a candidate as early as Sunday, but what's the likely timetable ahead for when this by election could take place? Because for Andy Burnham, time is really of the essence, isn't it?

[Hannah L Othman]

I mean, I think everyone will probably want it done sooner rather than later. There are still various things to get in place. Josh Simons has to formally resign. The by election has to be triggered. Labour have to select their candidate. You know, it's no guarantees for it to be Andy Burnham, but I do think he is the only candidate that really stands any chance of winning in this seat. So you would expect that Labour probably will. And then. So we're looking at maybe six to eight weeks, I think, for a by election.

[Lucy Hoff]

And I guess this is a tricky one for Labour, sort of central command, isn't it, about how much resource and funding and, you know, public support number 10 in its operations should put behind this by election, given that this is the likely leadership challenger to the current Prime Minister. Do we know anything about that at this stage?

[Hannah L Othman]

All indications from Labour are that they are going to. They're going to really, really fight this. I think they will want to prove that they can beat reform. They don't want to concede that ground. So I think, you know, every indication that I've seen and heard from Labour is that they are really going to take that fight to reform, despite the consequences of that.

[Lucy Hoff]

Yeah. And similarly, Andy Burnham is leaving a very big job as mayor of Greater Manchester. It looks very likely that he will do so. What are the sort of risks there? Is there any chance of a Reform UK candidate taking that job?

[Hannah L Othman]

Well, this is why. This is one of the reasons why Labour wanted to block Burnham from standing in Gorton and Denton, because obviously a parliamentary seat is one of 650, the mayoralty. You know, Manchester's arguably one of the most. Well, it is one of the most important in the country, arguably. I think that there are obviously a lot of factors. So Manchester city. So there's 10 boroughs in Greater Manchester. One of them is Manchester itself, and that has the biggest population and is the biggest voting block. And that voting block is more likely to vote for left wing parties. The outer boroughs are more likely to vote reform. So mathematically it's not an even split. So you can look and say, well, these six boroughs all voted reform, but it's actually not all weak the same. And also Labour is reintroducing the supplementary vote system. So also people who may want to vote green or may want to vote for a smaller party, you know, they may then think, well, I'll put Labour second to try and stop that reform. Mayor. So I think, you know, you can't predict everything in politics and everything's played for, but I think, you know, there is a good chance that Labour will hold that mayoralty if it is, you know, even when it's vacated by Andy Burnham.

[Lucy Hoff]

Thanks, Hannah. It sounds like you've got a very busy few weeks ahead of you. Thank you so much.

[Hannah L Othman]

Thank you.

[Lucy Hoff]

That's it for today. My huge thanks again to Hannah L. Othman, our north of England correspondent. You can keep up with her reporting from makerfield [e-mail] and don't miss today's episode of Politics Weekly America, which you can now watch for the first time on YouTube. It's all about the midterms and whether the Democrats think they can flip the Senate blue. Thanks for listening to this episode of the latest Today in focus. We'll be back in your feeds as usual on Monday morning. The latest will be back on Monday night. Have a lovely weekend. This episode was presented by me, Lucy Hoff. It was produced by Sam Grouet. The senior producer was Bryony Moore. The lead producer was Zoe Hitch.

[Kai Wright]

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[Kai Wright]

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