Today in Focus: Chaos in the Gulf

Date: March 3, 2026
Host: Annie Kelly
Guest: Julian Borger (The Guardian’s Senior International Correspondent)

Episode Overview

This episode dives into the unprecedented turmoil engulfing the Gulf region following the US and Israeli assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader. It explores the rapid escalation of conflict, the vulnerabilities of Gulf states, strategic miscalculations, global repercussions, and the shifting alliances and risks that threaten not just the Middle East, but the broader international order.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Firsthand Experience: Life in Dubai as the Crisis Erupts

• Personal Testimony (01:18–04:03):
  • Ed, a longtime Dubai resident, describes the chaos as rocket attacks begin, shattering the usual perception of the Gulf as a safe haven.
  • Notable quote [01:53]:

    “We were getting told to stay put, to stay indoors, stay away from windows. And within like an hour just went from 0 to 100.” — Ed

  • He recounts explosions, anti-missile systems engaging overhead, and the Fairmont Hotel being hit [02:16].
  • The personal narrative highlights how sudden conflict upended daily life, exposing the Gulf’s newfound vulnerabilities.

2. The Strike Heard Around the World: Assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader

• Background on the Assassination (04:50–05:50):
  • The US and Israel targeted Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his top aides in Tehran, likened to the airstrike that killed Muammar Gaddafi in Libya.
  • Julian Borger comments on the risks:

    “If that happens in Iran, which is a much more powerful, more advanced state in even more strategic position in the world, then the consequences are potentially far, far worse.” — Julian Borger [05:19]

  • Borger expresses surprise at Khamenei’s decision to meet aides in a single location amid imminent threat [05:58].

3. Iran’s Retaliatory Attacks and Regional Impact

• Scale and Nature of Response (06:43–08:18):

  • Iran launches widespread missile and drone strikes across Gulf states, including Oman—a traditional ally.

  • Despite advanced defenses intercepting most attacks, the psychological, economic, and strategic impact is significant.

  • Oil prices spike, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted, and major infrastructure like Dubai Airport is hit [08:18].

  • Tourism, a pillar of Gulf economies, reels as images of tourists caught in attacks circulate [09:55].

    “That is really the question mark over what Iran thinks it is doing, because a lot of the population, certainly in the Gulf states, would have been very sympathetic... But after these counter strikes by Iran really turned that around, and Iran is now seen as the biggest threat.” — Julian Borger [08:54]

4. The Gulf’s Response and Further War Calculations

• Regional Diplomacy and Strategy (10:13–11:58):

  • Gulf governments, urged by Washington and Israel, want the crisis to be short and decisive, with promises of lasting security if Iran’s regime falls.

  • Discussion of Iran’s limited options and failure to inflict major military damage.

  • Borger notes Iran’s seemingly irrational strategy, especially attacking Gulf states and Oman, alienating potential allies [12:10].

    “In firing at the Gulf Arab states, they have made a lot more enemies in the world... these aren't necessarily great strategists.” — Julian Borger [12:37]

5. The Risk of Regional Fragmentation and Wider Instability

• Ethnic and Political Risks (13:05–15:22):

  • Iran, ethnically and socially complex, risks devolving into chaos if the central regime collapses—as seen in Libya and Iraq.

  • Separate groups might rise, potentially sparking broader conflict.

  • The assassination of the Supreme Leader has ripple effects through Shia populations worldwide, with unrest already observed as far as Pakistan.

    “It is really on the brink of something potentially very violent, very long-lasting and very destructive.” — Julian Borger [13:53]

6. Gulf States, Israel, and Shifting Alliances

• Complex Web of Relations (16:33–17:48):

  • UAE is tightly aligned with Israel; Saudi Arabia played a role convincing Trump to strike Iran.

  • Nations like Qatar and Oman are deeply unsettled, showing the region’s divisions in responding to both US and Israeli actions.

    “Other countries like Qatar, certainly Oman, are aghast at what they're seeing. So it is very much... a divided region.” — Julian Borger [16:58]

  • Saudi motivation: pre-empt the Iranian threat, but worried further chaos could be even worse for the kingdom and its economy [17:48].

7. International Law, Trust in the US, and Global Fallout

• US Actions and Global Trust (20:56–23:24):

  • The assassination sets a precedent, junking diplomatic norms and incinerating the rulebook.

  • Trump’s unpredictability increases global risk; nations may be more cautious in dealings with the US, pushing some towards China as a more stable power.

    “If Trump wakes up in the morning and decides he doesn't like you, and you'd be better out of the way, these are very risky times to be the leader of any country.” — Julian Borger [22:24]

• Impact on Nuclear Proliferation:

  • Iran’s inability to deter overwhelming force without nuclear weapons sends a signal to other states that nuclear armament may be their only defense.

    “The only way that we can defend ourselves is to have a nuclear weapon.” — Julian Borger [24:34]

8. Europe’s Role and Dilemma

• European Involvement (26:42–28:40):

  • European states, including the UK, have been forced by attacks on their Gulf allies to edge closer to the conflict, despite broad opposition to Trump’s “war of choice.”

  • Public opinion in Europe is wary of appearing complicit; governments use highly cautious language, condemning Iran but not directly criticizing the US or Israel.

    “Very mealy mouth words... we must stick up for international law, but without really mentioning the US Or Israel at all.” — Julian Borger [28:29]

9. Prospects for Escalation and Resolution

• High-Stakes Uncertainty (29:40–32:04):

  • The risk of further escalation rises if Gulf states retaliate or join the fight directly.

  • The US and Israel hope Iran simply runs out of military options, paving the way for regime change or a more malleable government.

  • Yet, the ideological cohesion of the Iranian regime suggests any settlement will be hard-won and instability, if it arrives, could be “much worse for Saudi Arabia... and the rest of the Gulf.” [17:48–18:44]

    “If Trump is thinking this will work out like Venezuela, he'll probably be disappointed.” — Julian Borger [31:51]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the uncertainty and danger for Gulf residents:

  “You never feel that pressure, that we're actually very close to these countries that are going through conflict... But something like this obviously makes you realize how close we actually are to all.” — Ed [03:46]

• On the US-Israeli assassination:

  "To go and assassinate the leader of that country while negotiations are going on, just not only throws away the rule books, but sort of incinerates them. And we are in a new world now." — Julian Borger [20:56]

• On regional reaction to war:

  “The Gulf Cooperation Council just want this to end as soon as possible and will be trying to put pressure on Iran, threatening Iran to get it to stop firing, but also asking the US And Israel to wrap up as fast as they can.” — Julian Borger [31:11]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [01:18–04:03] — Ed’s personal account of the attacks in Dubai
• [04:50–05:50] — Assassination of Khamenei and strategic implications
• [06:43–08:18] — Iran’s retaliatory strikes, effectiveness of defenses, and impact on Gulf economies
• [13:05–14:13] — Dangers of fragmentation within Iran and regional instability
• [16:33–17:48] — Gulf states’ relationships with Israel and each other
• [20:56–22:24] — Impact of assassination on international law, global trust, and leadership risk
• [26:42–28:40] — Europe’s reluctant involvement and legal quandaries
• [29:40–32:04] — Escalation risks and possible endgames

Conclusion

This episode of Today in Focus provides a comprehensive, on-the-ground and analytical perspective on the rapid descent into chaos in the Gulf. It captures the fears of ordinary people, the machinations of global and regional powers, concerns about escalation, and the loss of trust in the old rules governing international conduct. The situation is volatile and unprecedented, with potentially far-reaching implications for the future of the Middle East and the world order.