Ed (3:25)

I was actually sleeping. I just got woken up by an emergency alert on my phone. We heard these bomb sounds outside our window, and the windows were shaking.

Julian Borger (3:38)

You know, all these people's lives are at risk as a result of these sort of decisions that have been made by people in some safe place somewhere.

Ed (3:46)

You never feel that pressure, that we're actually very close to these countries that are going through conflict, like Yemen and Syria and Iran. But something like this obviously makes you realize how close we actually are to all.

Annie Kelly (4:03)

As the region reels, Trump says the worst days of this war may still be to come.

Julian Borger (4:08)

And we have, right from the beginning, we projected four to five weeks, but we have capability to go far longer than that. We'll do it, whatever.

Annie Kelly (4:19)

From the Guardian, I'm Annie Kelly. Today in focus, can the crisis in the Gulf be contemplated? So, Julian Borgiat, you're a senior international correspondent here at the Guardian. We're speaking to you on Monday afternoon. And things are really moving at a dizzying pace since the US And Israeli strikes took out Iran's supreme leader, Alex Khamenei, on Saturday. You've been covering this region for a long time, for decades. Have you ever seen anything like this?

Julian Borger (4:51)

No. This is quite unlike anything we've seen in the past. Of course, there was the invasion of Iraq in 2003. But also you can look back to Libya and the killing of Muammar Gaddafi. It's similar in some ways because it was done from the air. They bombed, they weakened the regime, and then ultimately it was Libyans, basically a Libyan mob, who found Gaddafi and killed him. And it does look like that is what Trump is thinking would happen will happen in Iran, that it will be the people who will rise up and bring down the regime. But what happened in Libya was it broke up into pieces, became a chaotic state, a failed state. If that happens in Iran, which is a much more powerful, more advanced state in even more strategic position in the world, then the consequences are potentially far, far worse.

Annie Kelly (5:50)

And in terms of just the kind of audacious nature of that strike on the supreme Leader on Saturday, did you see that coming? Did you expect that?

Julian Borger (5:58)

I am really surprised that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei thought it was a good idea to invite all his top defense aides to a meeting in one place in central Tehran, in his compound labeled Supreme Leader Headquarters, at a time when it was clear that an attack was imminent. And that clearly triggered the attack on Saturday morning. The fact that these people came in at one place and offered this target of opportunity, and it's not really clear,

Annie Kelly (6:33)

is it, if the US or Israel expected Iran to retaliate or be able to retaliate, but they have done. How have we seen them strike back?

Julian Borger (6:43)

They've struck back pretty much like they did last June, which is just to fire a lot of missiles. This time they've fired off missiles and drones at a broader range of targets because they went after Israel, of course, but they also aimed at US bases in the region. But just like in June, it hasn't really worked because the countermeasures, the defenses in Israel and along the Gulf are strong enough to intercept almost everything and just set a few that must have been factored into the planning for this, that there would be retaliation. Iran would fire out everything it had. But there is growing confidence, you see, among us and its allies that it has the countermeasures, has ways of protecting against it to minimize the damage that Iran can do.

Annie Kelly (7:36)

And which countries have come under attack since Saturday from Iran?

Julian Borger (7:40)

Pretty much all the Gulf countries, and even including Amman, which had been very much on Iran's side. This is what's so surprising about Iran's decision making. Amman was really its main advocate in Washington, but it is the site of a US base, as has been Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, both Dubai and Abu Dhabi have all been hit. So pretty much the whole Gulf.

Annie Kelly (8:08)

And you said that their air defences have proven to be pretty effective. But what has been the overall impact of these strikes on the region so far in other ways?

Julian Borger (8:18)

Well, first of all, the price of oil took a spike because of worries about attacks. And there had been a couple of attacks on tankers. Shipping companies and insurance companies are being conservative and not going through the Strait of Hormuz, which is really the choke point into the Gulf and the dangerous point in the transit. And then, of course, there is, for example, Dubai Airport has been hit, and that is one of the business airports in the world. It's a hub, international hub, so that has closed down. So the tourist industry, of course, along the Gulf, which is important to the Gulf, because the Gulf countries have really, over the decades, presented themselves as a sort of safe place for investment, safe place for Expats and all that. Safe place for tourists. And that, of course, has taken a real knocking all my days over. The beach club is mental. Look at that. They were so loud in the safest city in the world. Wow. And that is really the question mark over what Iran thinks it is doing, because a lot of the population, certainly in the Gulf states, would have been very sympathetic to them coming under fire from the US And Israel. But after these counter strikes by Iran really turned that around, and Iran is now seen as the biggest threat. And it's possible that the Gulf Arab states will get involved now against Iran.

Annie Kelly (9:55)

And in terms of this, I mean, I think everyone's seen the videos over the weekend of tourists stranded in Dubai, in Qatar, you know, people on the beach kind of looking at missiles. I mean, the Gulf countries are going to want to shut that down pretty quickly, aren't they? Tourism's hugely important to them.

Julian Borger (10:13)

Yes. They're going to want this to be over. And this is probably the argument that Washington is making. Israel is making. This will last a few days. It'll be a few days of disruption. But then we will have solved your problem and the security problem in the Gulf forever. The regime will have gone and we will have destroyed all the missiles and the nuclear program will be hobbled and this long, festering soar in the Gulf would be solved once and for all. That is probably the argument that Washington is making now. We have hit hundreds of targets in Iran, including Revolutionary Guard facilities, Iranian air defense systems. Just now was announced that we knocked out nine ships plus their naval building, all in a matter of literally minutes.

Annie Kelly (11:05)

I do think that would be a compelling argument that the Gulf countries would respond to.

Julian Borger (11:10)

I think everything depends now on the resilience of the regime and how many bullets it has left in its magazine. What else does it have have? For example, there was a thought at some time in recent weeks that they would have swarms of underwater and surface and aerial drones that would close in on an American Navy vessel and overwhelm its defenses. They war game this over the years in Washington. They love a war game. And each time where they did this war game, more or less, there would be one or two US Ships have gone down. We haven't seen that yet. And maybe that threat has been neutralized by they've thought out of defenses, of countermeasures. And so it hasn't happened. Or it may be that Iran hasn't played that card yet.

Annie Kelly (11:58)

And you've kind of alluded to the fact that Iran seemed to be making these Fairly irrational decisions. For instance, attacking Oman, can you just explain, is there a strategy behind that or is it just panic, do you think?

Julian Borger (12:10)

I think if there's a strategy, it's not a good one. After their missiles failed in June to have much effect and get through the defenses, the Israeli defenses, they just went back to making more missiles and have followed the same route again, firing off a lot of missiles that haven't got through the defenses. And then in firing at the Gulf Arab states, they have made a lot more enemies in the world. I mean, they are pretty much totally isolated now. So, you know, there is question marks over the strategic thinking of the regime. But we sort of knew that, that these aren't necessarily great strategists.

Annie Kelly (12:51)

Right, but how dangerous a moment is this? I mean, even if Iran is hobbled by bad decision making and potentially very limited military capabilities, is this still a bit of a perilous moment for the region?

Julian Borger (13:05)

Absolutely, because of the great potential for chaos, for anarchy, for conflict. Because once a great multinational nation state comes apart, as we've seen in Libya and Iraq, you don't know what's going to happen. And Iran is a cobbled together country ethnically. Obviously you have a good chunk of Persians, but there are also Baluchi Kurds, there's Arabs Azeris, there are separatist movements along the borders. We don't know how strong. So there is that potential for implosion. And we don't know how close the regime and the country is in terms of falling apart and how long the regime can hold on. But it is really on the brink of something potentially very violent, very long lasting and very destructive.

Annie Kelly (14:13)

And tell us a bit about the recent history between Iran and the Gulf states. What's that relationship been like?

Julian Borger (14:20)

Well, it has been a long running enmity because Iran is a Shia power in a Sunni neighborhood, but a Shia power that has seen itself as the regional superpower, the hegemon. And that has for decades, well, ever since the Islamic Revolution in 79 and before under the Shah been a source of tension. But in more recent years there had been a certain amount of detente compared to the long history of the region. China brokered a non aggression deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran. And China then became kind of important broker in the region. And China has interests on both sides. So it comes at a time when the tensions with the rest of the Gulf, the Arab states were not at a particular peak. They were somewhat, you know, they'd been somewhat stifled. But, but now all that enmity, of course come back to the surface.

Annie Kelly (15:22)

And Julian, the Ayatollah was not just a political leader, he was also a religious leader for millions of Shias across the world. How could his assassination be a factor in what comes next across the Gulf, but also beyond?

Julian Borger (15:36)

Yeah, I think that's a major factor looking forward in terms of global instability because he was seen as the figurehead of Shia Islam, but also wider, a Islamic leader who had stood up to the US And Israel in the way that other Islamic leaders hadn't. And so to many people across the Islamic world, he's a, he's a hero who didn't suffer under him. He has a much better reputation, you know, outside Iran than inside. And of course, you have a Shia majority in Bahrain, you have Shia minorities elsewhere in the Arab world. To what extent will they react to what they're seeing unfold in Iran? We've already seen unrest as far away as Pakistan. So I think there are many factors here in terms of the Islamic world, in terms of Shia Islam that we've yet to see play out.

Annie Kelly (16:33)

And what about the Gulf states and their relationship with Israel? Israel obviously major player in these strikes and seems to, in fact, have been kind of leading the US into the timing and the nature of what's been playing out. What's the relationship between the Gulf region and Israel like?

Julian Borger (16:48)

Well, different for different states. The uae, United Arab Emirates, very close to Israel, almost hand in glove on a lot of issues. We're hearing now that the Saudi monarchy played a part in convincing Trump to go in on this attack. So taking the same, you know, sort of backing up Netanyahu's arguments from Israel. Other countries like Qatar, certainly Oman, are aghast at what they're seeing. So it is very much, you know, from that point of view, a divided region.

Annie Kelly (17:24)

So really complicated. Then you've got this, like, really complicated relationship between Iran and the Gulf. And again, you've got Israel's relationship with the Gulf very fragmented in terms of their different relationships. Why could you just. On this Saudi point, can you explain why would it be that Saudi would be encouraging Trump to go in and take out the regime's leaders at this moment?

Julian Borger (17:48)

Well, I think from the point of view of Saudi Arabia, the long term threat to the kingdom is Iran. It is the other major power. It has missiles, it has a nuclear program and the capability down the line one day making nuclear weapons. And, you know, the Saudis had long hinted that if that happened, they would get nuclear weapons of their own. But this offers another solution to really nip in the budget Iran's ability to threaten Saudi Arabia and the region and really takes it down as a regional power. The question is, what comes next? Because what comes next, if it is not stable, if it's chaotic, could be much worse for Saudi Arabia, for example, just in terms of getting oil out of the Gulf and trade into the Gulf. If there is long term instability, that could be disastrous for Saudi Arabia, but also for the rest of the Gulf.

Annie Kelly (18:44)

But maybe, you know, do you think it's in anyone's interest that Iran does descend into this kind of fragmentation and chaos?

Julian Borger (18:51)

Well, I've seen some reporting in the Israeli press that that suits Israel and this government quite well for different reasons. Their focus is on the capabilities. So if you take out the missiles, make sure they've got no missiles to fire, and you take care of the nuclear program and make sure that's not going anywhere, then that feeling of existential threat that Netanyahu has always emphasized, that goes away, at least for the time being. And they don't really care if Iranians are killing each other. And chaos, to a certain extent, keeps Iran weak, which from Netanyahu's point of view is a plus. And of course, he's come out to elections. If there is continuing instability going on in the region, then he can continue to present himself as this Churchillian war leader. He can put off the reckoning a for the corruption charges against him, but also that question mark about how much he and his government were to blame for letting their guard down and allowing the 7 October attacks in 23 to happen. War, instability, bit of chaos. That suits his purposes very well.

Annie Kelly (20:04)

And how influential would his voice be in Trump's ear, do you think?

Julian Borger (20:10)

From what we hear, he was able to shape Trump's view of Iran and told him what Iran was like, the only kind of language Iran would understand, and what would happen in Iran, how easy it would be to oust the Islamic Republic regime. So it does look like Netanyahu took the part of a senior aide, a senior advisor to Trump.

Annie Kelly (20:35)

And I mean, it's quite, you know, we talked at the top of this interview about how extraordinary it was that you saw the Ayatollah and some of the most senior figures in the Iranian regime taken out like this. It's probably worth pointing out that this is the first time that Israel has gone in and killed the leader of a country along with the U.S. yes,

Julian Borger (20:56)

these are, you know, this is an extraordinary step to take, to go in and use assassination as a tool, especially at a time when you are in the middle of negotiations with that country to go and assassinate the leader of that country while negotiations are going on, just not only throws away the rule books, but sort of incinerates them. And we are in a new world now.

Annie Kelly (21:21)

And that must matter as well in terms of how other countries, other nations can trust what the Americans are saying. We know that Trump has made, for instance, huge efforts to broker close relationships with the Gulf, both diplomatically and some would say for other personal financial reasons. Isn't this also a huge risk for him, dragging the region into a war that he can't control and they perhaps

Julian Borger (21:49)

don't want absolutely risk to him, if not only just the. An oil price shock in the months leading up to midterm elections, that could be very damaging because really, one thing that voters mind is the price of petrol at the pumps. It's historically been shown to be politically damaging. I mean, in terms of how much he's damaging America's place in the world. I mean, we've seen this unfold over an accelerating pace during his second term in office. And this really hits a high point. In the near term, I think countries are gonna be very. And leaders are gonna be very wary of making him cross. This is a very capricious, volatile, mercurial figure. So in the near time, everyone's going to play nice, because if you can be wiped out, if Trump wakes up in the morning and decides he doesn't like you, and you'd be better out of the way, these are very risky times to be the leader of any country. But in the long term, it is not surely going to be in America's interest to have that role on the world stage. And you could see, I think, a gravitation towards China as an opposite pole. That is least. That is a consistent power that doesn't use random violence, that has a pretty consistent message and consistent economically based interests.

Annie Kelly (23:24)

And what about Iran? We spoke a bit about their decision making, like how they've responded since the strikes. We talked about how you couldn't really see much logic in, for instance, them striking Oman or doing these quite kind of widespread hits across the Gulf. But surely they don't want to provoke the Gulf states into retaliatory strikes while they're under fire from the US and Israel.

Julian Borger (23:49)

Yeah, they did make an. In the run up to this, they did make a round to the Gulf and saying, if we strike back, it's only against the Gulfs, it's not against you. But of course, once the missiles and the drones start flying and they start hitting hotels and airports. All that talk is for nothing. And that is the great flaw in their deterrence strategy. But I don't know whether there was a workable deterrence strategy that they could have chosen against the overwhelming might of the US And Israel. How can a country that does not have a nuclear weapon defend itself? And that is maybe one of the most worrying, disturbing when it comes to potential fallout, is that other countries look at what's happened, they look at what happened to Iraq, Iran, Libya, and what hasn't happened to North Korea and draw the conclusion the only way that we can defend ourselves is to have a nuclear weapon.

Annie Kelly (24:59)

Coming up, Can Europe stay out of the war?

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Annie Kelly (26:42)

And how willing is Europe to get involved more generally? I mean we've talking about the fact that this conflict could escalate across the Middle East. You know a UK base in Cyprus has already been hit after the UK government allowed the the Americans to use that as a launch pad for strikes. Can Europe and the UK avoid getting fully drawn into this conflict and also keep Trump on side, which they also need to do?

Julian Borger (27:08)

Yeah, in a way the attacks on the Gulf Arab states have opened a door for the Europeans, Britain, France, Germany to fix their rift with Trump because they didn't want any part in the initial act of aggression, the war of choice. But now their allies in the region have been attacked. They've now said, well, we will enter in a defensive way. And so that to some extent solves their problem with Trump. To what extent it will be a problem for them domestically, because the predominant view of this is a war of choice by Trump, deeply unpopular figure in Europe. And so it will be seen by many in the electorate in these countries as joining in Trump's war. I want to be very clear. We all remember the mistakes of Iraq and we have learned those lessons. We were not involved in the initial strikes on Iran and we will not join offensive action now. But Iran is pursuing a scorched earth strategy. So we are supporting.

Annie Kelly (28:21)

And it's been interesting, isn't it, the language that's been used around condemnation of Iran, but no condemnation of the US Or Israel.

Julian Borger (28:29)

Yes, very mealy mouth words of, well, we must stick up for international law, but without really sort of mentioning the US Or Israel at all.

Annie Kelly (28:40)

I mean, the Iranian regime, diabolical in so many ways. The brutal, brutal repression of those protests a few months ago, just one indication of that. But when it comes to international law, these strikes are in no way compliant with the US Or Israel's obligations, are they?

Julian Borger (28:57)

No. But in a way, that boat has long, long sailed. You know, Trump has shown and Israel under Netanyahu have shown they have no time for, you know, the niceties of international law, obviously in Gaza, Trump in Venezuela and so on. This is not something that concerns them. And to some extent, Trump's creation of the Board of Peace was a way of getting around all that and all the complications and restrictions of the UN Charter and set up his own parallel organization where he could get to make up the rules on the spur. Trump in particular has created a chaotic world.

Annie Kelly (29:40)

How do you think it's going to play out over the coming days between Iran, the Gulf, Trump and Israel? Will this escalate into a full blown conflict across the Middle East?

Julian Borger (29:51)

It has the potential for escalating in ways that the planners in the Pentagon could not have foreseen. That's the nature of war. I think the likelihood of Gulf retaliation gets higher with every day passes where Iran's firing at their hotels and airports. There's only so much they can stand because they are vulnerable. But they have to bear in mind that if they do that, if they join the fight, then there's a lot more that Iran could do in retaliation. They have oil refineries, they have liquefied natural gas sites that could be blown up, that could be targeted and it could get very nasty indeed. I think that the gcc, Gulf Cooperation Council just want this to end as soon as possible and will be trying to put pressure on Iran, threatening Iran to get it to stop firing, but also asking the US And Israel to wrap up as fast as they can. What Washington is counting on is that Iran basically runs out of bullets, it runs out of missiles, runs out of drones, and then everything quiets down and then it either collapses or it comes up with a leader that the US can do business with, that is a leader that gives up nuclear program, missile program, and probably agrees to hand over oil. Now, whether that will happen, whether the regime is that sort of regime that is flexible in the same way as Venezuela was, where you had a second in command ready to do business, that's very much in doubt. This is a highly ideological regime that has held on for 47 years by being disciplined, holding together ideologically. It'll be a very brave man and certainly be a man in Iran that will break from that and say, offer the U.S. a deal. So if Trump is thinking this will work out like Venezuela, he'll probably be disappointed.

Annie Kelly (32:04)

Thank you so much, Julian, for talking to us today.

Julian Borger (32:06)

Thank you. Thank you for having me on.

Annie Kelly (32:10)

And that's it for today. That was Julian Borger, the Guardian's senior international correspondent. You can keep up with his reporting and analysis@theguardian.com this episode was produced by Eli Blake, Hannah Aden and Alex Atak and presented by me, Annie Kelly. Sound design was by Brian McNamara and the executive producer was Homa Khalili. Nosheen will be back in your feeds later today with the latest. This is the guardian

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Julian Borger (33:47)

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