Could Trump blow up Nato over Iran war? – The Latest

Summary

Podcast Summary: "Could Trump blow up Nato over Iran war? – The Latest"

Podcast: Today in Focus (The Guardian)
Host: Lucy Half
Guest: Hannah Ellis Peterson (Guardian South Asia Correspondent, reporting from Dubai)
Date: March 16, 2026
Episode Length: ~11 minutes (core content: 01:00-10:20)

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Episode Overview

This episode tackles the escalating crisis in the Gulf, as President Donald Trump pressures NATO and global partners to commit naval forces to the embattled Strait of Hormuz amidst a widening war between the U.S., Israel, and Iran. The discussion centers on whether NATO could splinter under this pressure, with acute risks for global energy security, international alliances, and the dangers of wider conflict.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

Trump’s Demand: NATO Must Intervene

• Trump's ultimatum: The U.S. president is pressing NATO allies, along with Japan and Australia, to send warships to the Strait of Hormuz to protect oil and gas tankers targeted by Iranian missiles and drones.
  • "He wants them to send their warships into the Strait of Hormuz to accompany the oil and gas tankers that are currently being targeted by Iranian missiles and drones..." (Hannah Ellis Peterson, 02:11)
• Purpose: Restoring the flow of oil and gas; global prices are skyrocketing.
• High stakes: Placing allied navies in harm’s way could drag them directly into the conflict with Iran.

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NATO’s Lukewarm Response & Internal Tensions

• Muted reactions: France, Germany, the UK, Australia, and Japan hesitate to send ships, wary of escalation.
  • "The response from NATO, France, Germany, the UK has been very muted, very vague on what type of military support they would be prepared to provide, if at all.” (Lucy Half, 04:23)
• UK’s stance: PM Keir Starmer suggests deploying minesweeping drones but rules out sending warships, insisting on avoiding escalation.
• Risks involved: Entry of allied navies could lead to direct confrontation if struck, drawing reluctant countries into the war.
  • "As soon as they put their navies into the Strait of Hormuz, and, for example, if they got hit by an Iranian missile, an Iranian drone [...] would risk bringing them into a war that they don't want to be a part of." (Hannah Ellis Peterson, 05:01)

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Trump’s Threats to NATO

• Unclear consequences: Trump hints at severe repercussions if NATO doesn't follow his lead, but specifics are vague (“very bad for its future”).
  • "He has issued quite a kind of stark threat to NATO in particular, saying it could be very bad for its future." (Lucy Half, 02:46)
• Speculation about US withdrawal from NATO: Trump has made such threats before; his unpredictability worries allies.
  • "That's something that Donald Trump has made his threat repeatedly. [...] With him, it's very unpredictable and very hard to know." (Hannah Ellis Peterson, 04:04)

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Dangers of Wider War & On-the-Ground Fallout

• Direct repercussions in the Gulf: UAE (esp. Dubai) faces ongoing Iranian attacks. Ports and airports targeted, disrupting oil trade (~2% world supply here).
  • "You constantly hearing the low rumble of fighter jets. You get these alarms on your phones saying, there are missiles close by. Stay away from windows." (Hannah Ellis Peterson, 06:29)
• Spillover violence: Israel escalating attacks in Lebanon – 800 killed in recent bombardment.

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Complex International Dynamics: US–China Angle

• Trump appeals to China: Wants Beijing, a main oil consumer, to intervene to stabilize the Strait.
  • "Trump is keen to bring China into all of this. Given that Beijing relies so heavily on the oil that passes through the Strait of Hormuz..." (Lucy Half, 07:35)
• China resists: Focuses solely on its own interests, showing no inclination to pick a side or deploy warships.
  • "China has made absolutely no attempts to get involved in this, except for some sort of vague statements." (Hannah Ellis Peterson, 08:08)

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Diplomatic Options & Future Prospects

• Diplomatic solution? With no end in sight militarily, diplomacy is the only plausible exit – but the route remains uncertain.
  • "It doesn't feel like this is something that could be, you know, won by just kind of constant barrage of bombing. [...] It feels like a diplomatic solution is the only one that is possible to bring this to an end." (Hannah Ellis Peterson, 09:31)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On alliance tension:
  "We're always there for NATO. We're helping them with Ukraine. It'd be interesting to see what country wouldn't help us." — Donald Trump (quoted, 01:09)
• On the peril for allies:
  "To put their navies onto the front line and risk them being hit or targeted by Iranian missiles, you know, risks dragging all of these countries into a war that they're really desperate to try and keep out of." — Hannah Ellis Peterson (05:01)
• On regional atmosphere:
  "You constantly hearing the low rumble of fighter jets. You get these alarms on your phones saying, there are missiles close by. Stay away from windows. Just this morning, Dubai airport was targeted." — Hannah Ellis Peterson (06:29)
• On the need for diplomacy:
  "It feels like a diplomatic solution is the only one that is possible to bring this to an end. But the ways in which that would take place, you know, are sort of impossible to predict." — Hannah Ellis Peterson (09:31)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 01:00: Hannah Ellis Peterson introduces the escalation and Trump’s pressure on NATO.
• 02:11: Explanation of Trump’s demand for allied warships in the Strait of Hormuz.
• 03:11: Discussion of potential consequences if NATO refuses, and the risk to the alliance.
• 04:23: Breakdown of the UK and other allies’ muted response.
• 05:01: Depth on the grave risks of deploying foreign navies.
• 06:29: Peterson’s on-the-ground account from Dubai; details attacks and global oil implications.
• 07:35: Trump’s attempts to involve China; the implausibility of Chinese cooperation.
• 09:31: Outlook: Only diplomacy likely to resolve the crisis.

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Episode Tone

• Urgent, analytical, and slightly wary: The episode deftly balances on-the-ground immediacy with high-level geopolitical analysis. Both host and guest express concern for the unpredictability of Trump’s approach and the risk of wider war, while emphasizing the delicacy of global alliances and the ever-present danger of an expanded conflict.

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Final Thoughts

This episode provides a succinct yet in-depth look into the cascading risks of the US-Iran conflict, with a particular focus on Donald Trump’s aggressive, unpredictable diplomacy and the dilemmas it poses for NATO. Reporting from Dubai gives a vivid sense of the front-line consequences, while expert analysis elucidates just how fraught and fragile current international alignments have become. As the crisis in the Gulf deepens, the stakes for global security and energy supply have rarely looked higher.

For more context and ongoing developments, listeners are directed to upcoming episodes specializing in the economics of the Strait of Hormuz and the evolving political response.

Transcript

[Lucy Half]

This is the guardian.

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[Hannah Ellis Peterson]

We're going into what, the third week of this war and there is no sign of any of this violence relenting. It's very hard to see the temperature being kind of dialed down.

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We're always there for NATO. We're helping them with Ukraine. It'd be interesting to see what country wouldn't help us.

[Hannah Ellis Peterson]

It is in the interests of these NATO allies to find a way to secure and open the strait. And it is just a question of whether or not countries actually want to send their navies into the firing line.

[Lucy Half]

Donald Trump threatens the future of NATO as he pressures allies to send ships to the Strait of Hormuz from the Guardians today. In focus this is the latest. With me, Lucy Half. I'm joined by Hannah Ellis Peterson, the Guardian South Asia correspondent currently in Dubai for us. Thanks so much for joining us, Hannah. So over the weekend, Donald Trump, the US President, has been putting lots of pressure on NATO allies as well as other partners around the world to help him reopen the Strait of H. Brittle crossing in the Gulf, in the Persian Gulf that is responsible for so much of the world's oil trade. What exactly is he asking of NATO and other partners?

[Hannah Ellis Peterson]

Well, he's got one very simple demand is that he wants them to send their warships into the Strait of Hormuz to accompany the oil and gas tankers that are going through there that are currently being targeted by Iranian missiles and drones and that are causing this major disruption to one of the world's most important flows of energy in the world and causing oil to skyrocket exorbitant prices. And so he's essentially asking them to use their militaries to defend the oil and gas tankers and send their navies into this very, very small and very critical strip of sea.

[Lucy Half]

We'll come on to the response of NATO and others in a second. But it's worth also saying that he has issued quite a kind of stark threat to NATO in particular, saying it could be very bad for its future. What are we getting the sense of the consequences that there might be if NATO refus, as seems to be the case, this demand? I mean, is this a question of sanctions, for example?

[Hannah Ellis Peterson]

Who knows? This is Donald Trump. I mean, in the past, he's used tariffs as a very kind of punitive measure in these kinds of circumstances. What he means by very bad is very unclear. But what is true is that, you know, it is in the interests of these NATO allies also to find a way to secure and open the strait. This isn't only something that Donald Trump wants to do, but it is just a question of whether or not countries actually want to send their navies into the firing line and the consequences of that. And so I think there is a sense of countries kind of treading carefully of saying, you know, we, this is a priority for us as well. We want to ensure that oil and gas is flowing through their strait again, but also kind of ensuring that they're not brought into a war which they didn't start and which they have no intention of joining and have no intention of sort of putting their navies on the front line of.

[Lucy Half]

And is there any sense that the US Is considering pulling out of NATO or that there's a threat that it might do that?

[Hannah Ellis Peterson]

That's something that Donald Trump has made his threat repeatedly. Threated repeatedly. What that actually means is very unclear. He certainly kind of used that against to try and get what he wants in these circumstances. But it's very with him, it's very unpredictable and very hard to know. And it's hard to know what exactly will appease him in this situation.

[Lucy Half]

What we do know is that the response from NATO, France, Germany, the UK has been very muted, very vague on what type of military support they would be prepared to provide, if at all. The uk, the Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, has been speaking this morning saying that it would be prepared to send minesweeping drones or that's certainly under consideration, but is ruling out sending ships with a view that that could further escalate the situation. And Starmer has been very clear that he doesn't want to get dragged into this war and to further escalate the situation. But there's also been a muted response from countries like Australia and Japan. Right.

[Hannah Ellis Peterson]

I mean, for these countries to send their navies into the Strait of Hormuz at the current situation is Extremely risky and extremely dangerous. You know, these are countries not currently involved in this war. And, you know, but as soon as they put their navies into the Strait of Hormuz, and, for example, if they got hit by an Iranian missile, an Iranian drone, an Iranian mine in the water would be seen as a direct act of aggression against those countries and would risk bringing them into a war that they don't want to be a part of. You know, this waterway is currently very unsecure. There's no security in the skies. There's no security in the water. Iran's talked about laying mines in the water. And so, you know, to put their navies onto the front line and risk them being hit or targeted by Iranian missiles, you know, risks dragging all of these countries into a war that they're really desperate to try and keep out of as much as they can.

[Lucy Half]

Yeah. And that perhaps the White House and the Trump administration have really underestimated how complex the situation is. You sense that Trump is looking for an easy way out of this, but Iran is saying it's not at all looking for a ceasefire and it will continue for as long as it takes. You are in the United Arab Emirates, in Dubai at the moment. We know that there's been continued attacks from Iran into the Gulf over the weekend. There's been continued U. S. Israeli strikes on Iran, but also heavy bombardment in Lebanon with a tragic 800 killed there. So the situation continues to be very febrile and very dangerous, doesn't it?

[Hannah Ellis Peterson]

Yeah, I mean, we're going into, what, the third week of this war, and there is no sign of any of this violence relenting. I mean, yeah, I'm in Dubai right now in the uae, which has borne the brunt of the missiles and drones that Iran has been sending over into the Gulf as a form of retaliation over the weekend. You constantly hearing the low rumble of fighter jets. You get these alarms on your phones saying, there are missiles close by. Stay away from windows. Just this morning, Dubai airport was targeted. We saw a major port in the UAE targeted, which is where they export 2% of the world's oil comes out of this port. And you know repeatedly that they've been forced to halt any kind of loading of oil from there. You know, even in the Gulf, it still feels very, very volatile. And then, you know, beyond that, you've seen Israel launching fresh strikes on Iran this morning. You know, there's talk of possible kind of annexation in Lebanon. So there is no sense here of, you know, this kind of cooling down. And at the Other side, you've got Iran saying that they have no interest in negotiation or a ceasefire. It's very hard to see the temperature being kind of dialed down.

[Lucy Half]

Yeah. And a U.S. administration and an Israeli government that perhaps seem increasingly isolated, perhaps in Trump's case, wanting to end the war as quickly as possible. But Netanyahu keen to press on, as is Iran. In perhaps a sign of how desperate the situation is becoming, Trump is keen to bring China into all of this. Given that Beijing relies so heavily on the oil that passes through the Strait of Hormuz. I mean, how plausible is that, given the state of US China relationship, the tariff war that we saw at the end of last year?

[Hannah Ellis Peterson]

I mean, quite implausible. China has made absolutely no attempts to get involved in this, except for some sort of vague statements. And it doesn't seem like they're in any way willing to get entangled in Trump's war on Iran. They're an ally of Iran and, you know, they've made their own efforts to ensure the oil and gas are coming through the Strait, but for them, their interest is ensuring that their gas and oil comes through Chinese gas and oil. They don't have much interest in ensuring that American gas and oil than other Western countries. Gas and oil is coming through. There is no sense that China is in any way willing to certainly put warships on the front line. And so even though Trump is talking about pressuring China at this point, China has its own relationship with Iran and is securing its own interests there. Doesn't really need to bow down to the demands of Trump to ensure that they get what they need from Iran.

[Lucy Half]

Yeah, and you've got some fairly major players in the global economy there, don't you? You've got the uk, France, Germany, Japan, Australia, others who are flat out refusing to bow to this pressure from Trump at the moment. It's worth saying that today. In Focus, we'll have a long look at the importance of the Strait of Hormuz in the global oil market and to enter the global economy at large. But for now, is there any sense, given that sort of relative coordination between those countries, refusing to bow down to Trump, that a diplomatic solution could be possible? Or do you think we risk further escalation?

[Hannah Ellis Peterson]

I think ultimately it will have to be that, because there isn't a clear outcome of exactly what America wants with this war. Israel has its own agenda in terms of, you know, and we can clearly see that in the actions that they're taking in Lebanon. So I guess it's sort of dependent on how you know, America feels it can frame this as a victory and the point at which they feel they can kind of then say they would end it with negotiations. It doesn't feel like this is something that could be, you know, won by just kind of constant barrage of bombing. You know, Iran has made it very clear that they are not going to stop. And so, you know, it feels like a diplomatic solution is the only one that is possible to bring this to an end. But the ways in which that would take place, you know, are sort of impossible to predict.

[Lucy Half]

Yeah. And we know that there was a very testy phone call between Keir Starmer and Donald Trump last night. Hannah, thank you so much for your time and stay safe in Dubai.

[Hannah Ellis Peterson]

Thank you so much, Lisi.

[Lucy Half]

That's it for today. And for more on Keir Starmer's response to Trump and his plans for energy bill support, don't miss today's episode of Politics Weekly. And to understand what's going on in the straight up Hormuz and why it's having a, such, such an enormous impact, keep your eyes and ears peeled for tomorrow morning's episode of Today in Focus. The latest will be back tomorrow night. This episode was presented by me, Lucy Half. It was produced by Annie Levespa. The senior producer was Ryan Ramgobin and the lead producer was Zoe Hitch. This is the Guardian.

[Hannah Ellis Peterson]

Foreign.

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