Today in Focus: Could Trump Really End the War in Iran ‘Very Soon’? – The Latest

Date: March 10, 2026
Host: Lucy Hough
Guest: Nesrine Malik, Guardian columnist

Episode Overview

This episode of "The Latest" with Lucy Hough examines the conflicting messages coming from the Trump administration claiming imminent victory in the war with Iran. With Guardian columnist Nesrine Malik, the episode unpacks the realities on the ground, the implications for the wider Gulf region, and the broader geopolitical stakes. The discussion challenges political spin with on-the-ground analysis, highlighting regional complexities and the cost of oversimplified narratives.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Mixed Messaging from Trump and the Reality of US Strategy

[00:11–01:40]

• Trump has suggested the war in Iran is “very complete” and might end “very soon,” yet US and Israeli strikes continue.
• Nesrine Malik expresses confusion over the US message:

  “There isn't really a path for Donald Trump to come out and claim without egg on his face that this was a successful campaign.” (B, 00:11)

• The US is caught in a “quagmire,” with the regime in Iran not collapsing as hoped, making any claim to victory problematic.
• Malik notes the US may now be seeking a political "off ramp" but doubts Iran would be open to that.

2. Iran’s Response and the Strait of Hormuz Blockade

[03:09–03:55]

• Iran’s regime and the IRGC insist they will determine when the war ends.
• Iran’s chokehold of the Strait of Hormuz is disrupting global oil and gas supplies, rattling markets and the Trump administration.
• Trump threatens increased military action if the blockade continues, signaling economic concerns shaping policy.

3. Diverging Agendas and Underestimated Iranian Resolve

[03:55–05:42]

• Malik highlights the difference in stakes:

  “The Iranian regime is in a fight for its life... it's not just the existence of the government. It's the existence of a whole orientation, a whole ideology, a whole society and cultural product and way of living that has existed for decades and decades.” (B, 04:09)

• The US administration is seen as seeking distractions from domestic troubles, whereas Iran is fighting for existential survival.
• Malik argues US policymakers chronically misread the resilience and motivations of adversarial regimes:

  “You kind of have to have that ignorance in the first place for this to happen.” (B, 05:19)

4. Israel’s Strategic Interests

[05:42–07:21]

• Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is not seeking an end to the conflict:

  “There is something useful in having a war with Iran kind of rumble on and on without a decisive outcome, because that then justifies and keeps open campaigns in Lebanon... It's just a very useful propaganda tool.” (B, 06:26)

• For Netanyahu, continued hostilities help justify ongoing regional military operations and the geopolitical status quo.

5. Unstable Gulf Dynamics Beyond the Big Three

[07:21–10:43]

• Malik critiques the narrative focusing solely on the US, Israel, and Iran, stressing the overlooked complexity of Gulf politics.
• Significant transformations are underway in regional states:
  • Saudi Arabia’s liberalization
  • UAE’s active foreign policy
  • Qatar’s global ambitions and economic ties to Iran (notably shared gas fields)
• These countries are not a unified bloc and have nuanced, sometimes contradictory alignments and vulnerabilities.
• The spillover from continued conflict raises the risk of “unraveling that no one has ever seen before,” with countries unaccustomed to direct warfare facing destabilization.
• Malik warns that even a stalled or inconclusive outcome in Iran could upend decades of carefully managed relationships and balances in the Gulf.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Nesrine Malik:

  “There isn't really a path for Donald Trump to come out and claim without egg on his face that this was a successful campaign.” (00:11)

• Nesrine Malik:

  “The Iranian regime is in a fight for its life… it’s the existence of a whole orientation, a whole ideology...” (04:09)

• Nesrine Malik:

  “If there was any sort of understanding of the dynamics and subjectivities... under the hood of these regimes, I don't think these sorts of foreign interventions and foreign campaigns would happen in the way they do, whether it's Iraq or Afghanistan or now Iran.” (05:15)

• Nesrine Malik on Israel:

  “It's not in Netanyahu's interest to bring this campaign to a close anytime soon... certainly not in his interest to bring it to an end in a way where Iran is not a threat.” (06:49)

• Nesrine Malik on the Gulf:

  “The Gulf in particular has been, I would say for the past five to 10 years maximum, at an inflection point… There’s all these shifting countries who are trying to position themselves as centers of global commerce... but these are not states that are naturally aligned on matters of Israel, the Palestinian state... and also their relationship with Iran.” (07:55–08:28)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:11–01:40: Mixed messages from Trump; US stuck in the Iranian quagmire
• 03:09–03:55: Iran’s chokehold of the Strait of Hormuz and its implications
• 03:55–05:42: Deep dive into the stakes for Iran vs. the US; misreading of Iran’s resilience
• 05:42–07:21: Netanyahu’s motivations; Israel’s role in prolonging the conflict
• 07:21–10:43: The wider Gulf: shifting alliances, risks of regional destabilization

Conclusion

The episode underscores the disconnect between Washington's narrative and the realities in Iran and the broader Middle East. Malik’s analysis foregrounds regional complexity and questions the sustainability—and potential consequences—of current US and Israeli strategies. The podcast challenges listeners to look beyond headlines and political claims, emphasizing how wider regional stability is at risk in ways that are ignored at the peril of global security.