Lucy Half (3:33)

And there must be issues in terms of managing workplaces, Right, which demand air conditioning to make people comfortable.

Rebecca Ratcliffe (3:40)

Lots of governments in the region have encouraged people to work from home. Either they've asked government staff to work from home or in Vietnam, for example, the government's told businesses to encourage their staff to work from home to try and reduce power burden. Everyone's being told to reduce their AC usage. That's a clear message. In Thailand, officials have been told to wear short sleeve shirts and no neckties unless they're going to an official ceremony to try and reduce the reliance on air conditioning. And there were some news anchors on Thai TV who took off their jackets on air to try and, you know, illustrate this point. But yeah, as you said, it's, it's very hot in the region right now. It's entering the hottest months and it's quite hard for people like to, you know, to go completely without air conditioning.

Lucy Half (4:30)

And just explain, Rebecca, why Southeast Asia is being hit so hard and fast in this way because it is really reliant on energy that passes from the Gulf States through the Strait of Hormuz, isn't it? And that means that countries like Thailand, like the Philippines, are really exposed to this disruption.

Rebecca Ratcliffe (4:49)

Yeah, that's exactly it. They rely on imported energy and much of it is coming from the Middle East. So the Philippines, for example, depends on it for like 90% of its oil requirements. And then another like, additional factor is that the picture kind of varies across the region, but some countries don't have very strong reserves. So it's been reported that Vietnam, for example, only has enough to energy to cover about 20 days of domestic consumption. If you compare that with somewhere like Japan, which has very large reserves that can cover 250 days, you can see it's quite a stark difference. And that just makes them more exposed.

Lucy Half (5:28)

Yeah, and it's interesting about China, isn't it? Which has been relatively buffeted, as per some good reporting from our colleague Callum Jones about China's huge energy reserves, but also its use of alternative technologies such as wind and solar. That means it's able to be buffeted against this impact in that way. Yeah.

Rebecca Ratcliffe (5:50)

And definitely it's quite interesting that China said it was ready to work with Southeast Asia on energy shortages. And recently the Philippine Energy Secretary met with the Chinese ambassador to discuss energy cooperation. I mean, the Philippines is a US Ally. It has quite a tense relationship with China over recent years because they have frequent disputes over contested territory in the South China Sea. And it's interesting to see whether China can help the region in some way. Throughout Trump's term, China has always tried to present itself as a reliable partner in comparison to the US which is under Trump, very unpredictable. Before the Trump administration, the US Was working hard to try and build its ties, build relationships in Southeast Asia. But since Trump came into office, again, this is just the latest economic headache that Southeast Asia have suffered at the hands of the U.S. i mean, if you look back to Trump's Liberation Day tariffs, countries like Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos were hit with some of the most punishing tariffs at the hands of Trump. So it does lend itself to China's arguments when it will try and present itself as a reliable strategic partner in

Lucy Half (7:02)

the region, which is quite a significant shift, isn't it? I mean, that could be, in the long term, very defining. If countries start to become more dependent on China as a result of this

Rebecca Ratcliffe (7:14)

crisis, I think Southeast Asia will be cautious about becoming too reliant. Southeast Asia always tries to balance its relationship with China and with the US and not to align itself too much with either side, generally speaking.

Lucy Half (7:31)

But there must be, I mean, from what you've been saying, you know, people having to make these very big decisions in their day to day lives about, you know, farmers who aren't able to access their equipment, people really struggling to get into work, people having to work from home in very hot conditions. All of the disruption that you've been talking about and the government interventions, there must be a sense from people that you've been speaking to that this is a war that they did not choose to go into, that's being carried out by the US And Israel and yet is having this huge impact on their day to day lives.

Rebecca Ratcliffe (8:03)

Yeah, for sure. And I think President Marcos of the Philippines kind of, he said we're victims of a war that's not our choosing. And I think that probably does sum up how a lot of people feel, albeit there might be some anger towards domestic governments at how they're handling things, you know, and whether they're doing enough. But absolutely, like, people in this region are so affected. And, you know, if you look at the Philippines, for example, it's not just people at home, it's also migrant workers. There are lots of overseas Filipinos, workers who are stationed across the Middle east, who are now stuck in war zones. I mean, there were jeepney drivers and people who are reliant on fuel for their, you know, their livelihoods. Jeepneys are the kind of like the backbone of the transport system in the Philippines. They're seeing their incomes drop dramatically, like more than half compared to what they were before the war. So it's really affecting people who like the poorest. And I think. I think there is this real sense of how unfair it is.

Lucy Half (9:04)

And so if we're talking about this kind of fast, sharp shock, if the Strait of Hormuz remains blockaded in the weeks to come, I mean, we are in this sort of situation of deadlock at the moment with lots and lots of uncertainty about when this conflict may end. I mean, how long can governments sustain that level of subsidy, this type of advice to their citizens, could it get substantially worse in the longer term?

Rebecca Ratcliffe (9:32)

Yeah, that's the. I think that's the question that everyone's wondering and that governments are wondering. I mean, if you look at what support they are providing, Thailand has diesel subsidies that are very burdensome. They're costing. Well, the reports were that they were costing 22 million pounds a day. How long can they maintain that in the Philippines have been like cash handouts? For example, the jeepney drivers and tricycle drivers received handouts of about pound 60 in cash aid last week. But that's not enough to tide people over in the long term in such a severe crisis. Yeah, I don't think anyone knows the answer to that question. And what will happen if this goes on for longer and longer? And also the effects, if you look at farmers, for example, if they're taking a hit now, perhaps they can't afford to use as much fertiliser. Perhaps they're going to skip on fertiliser because fertiliser is also. The supplies of that are also disrupted because lots of it is coming from the Middle East. So if they use less fertilizer, you know, they're going to have less produce. There's going to be even greater str on food supplies. That's. It gets worse and worse. You know, those farmers will have less income later in the year and the food prices will also go up.

Lucy Half (10:41)

It's just astounding the ripple effect of this conflict around the world. Thank you so much for sharing your reporting, Rebecca.

Rebecca Ratcliffe (10:47)

Thank you for having me.

Lucy Half (10:49)

That's it for today. My huge thanks again to Rebecca Ratcliffe, the Guardian Southeast Asia correspondent. You can keep up with her reporting over@wuardian.com and do listen to our sister podcast, Politics Weekly America, where Jonathan Freedham will be speaking to one of Kamala Harris's former national security advisors about what's really behind Trump's latest tantrums over Iran. Thanks for listening to this episode of the latest, the new evening edition of Today in Focus. Today in FOCUS will be back in your feeds as usual on Monday morning. The latest will be back on Monday night. Have a lovely weekend. This episode was presented by me, Lucy Hoff. It was produced by Bryony Moore. The senior producer was Ryan Ramgobin and the lead producer was Zoe Hirsch. Chicago, 2011 A cop is murdered.

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