Has Burnham’s win in Makerfield sealed Starmer’s fate? - The Latest

Summary

Podcast Summary:

Today in Focus – The Latest
Episode: Has Burnham’s win in Makerfield sealed Starmer’s fate?
Date: June 19, 2026
Host: Annie Kelly
Guest: Alexander Topping, Guardian Political Correspondent

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Overview

This episode dives into the seismic political consequences of Andy Burnham’s decisive win in the Makerfield by-election. Host Annie Kelly and Guardian political correspondent Alexander Topping dissect what Burnham’s victory means for Labour leader Keir Starmer’s future, examine shifting dynamics within the Labour Party, Burnham’s political platform, the prospects of a leadership contest, and the broader implications for Labour and Reform parties as the UK approaches a pivotal juncture in its political landscape.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Burnham's Landslide: A Game-Changer for Labour?

• Seismic Win: Burnham’s victory margin—over 9,000 votes—exceeded expectations, nearly doubling previous majorities and beating all other candidates combined.
  • "A really decisive win over Reform as well." – Annie Kelly [00:50]
  • "He got more votes than all of the other candidates combined." – Alexander Topping [01:22]
• Team’s Surprise: Even Burnham’s own camp didn’t anticipate such a clear margin.
  • "His team said that this defied their expectations." – Annie Kelly [02:42]

2. Keir Starmer’s Precarious Position

• Leadership at Risk: The result places significant pressure on Starmer, as Burnham’s success undermines his authority and appeal as Labour head.
  • "If I, you know, was going to make a bet now, I don't think I would be betting on Keir Starmer..." – Alexander Topping [00:33, 12:58]
  • "Behind the scenes now, if you don't want that fight, if you don't want to tear this party apart, it's time for you to leave." – Alexander Topping [03:53]
• Starmer Responds: Starmer insists he will “fight on,” but aches confidence in comparison to Burnham’s momentum.
  • "Keir Starmer has said this morning he's going to fight on. I was at the G7... he looked very relaxed. He was saying, you know, I will fight. He was saying it in quite punchy terms, in a way that we haven't really heard from the Prime Minister before." [03:10]

3. The Mechanics and Fallout of a Leadership Change

• Burnham’s Path Forward: Burnham’s internal team now seeks an “orderly” and “coronation-style” leadership transition to avoid divisive in-fighting reminiscent of the Tories’ woes in 2022.
  • "Team Burnham are very much hoping that they can get a coronation rather than a very messy fight, which could be very damaging for the party..." – Alexander Topping [03:37]
• Key Allies & Cabinet Speculation: Burnham's Northern campaign team, including prominent women like Louise Haigh and Anneliese Midgley, are expected to play crucial roles, and the choice of Chancellor (possibly Ed Miliband or Rachel Reeves) will signal Burnham's direction.
  • "These are... strong Northern women who have led this campaign with massive efficiency..." – Alexander Topping [05:21]
  • "Who Burnham chooses as his next chancellor will be key." – Alexander Topping [06:04]

4. Burnham’s Ideology and ‘Manchesterism’

• Radical but Pragmatic: Burnham distances himself from Starmer's incrementalism, promoting a vision of “Manchesterism”—less about party, more about locality, and working across divides.
  • "Burnham seems to want to do something more radical. You know, his big picture idea is Manchesterism, where he said it's not about party actually, it's about place." – Alexander Topping [07:07]
• Economic Ambitions: Nationalising key utilities (like Thames Water) is on the table, despite the fiscal challenges.
  • "Burnham is talked about nationalizing utility companies. You know, I think we may well see the quick nationalization of Thames Water..." – Alexander Topping [07:29]

5. Tactical Voting and the Limits of Burnham’s Appeal

• Tactical Voting Impact: The Makerfield result suggests that strategic Labour/anti-Reform voting is a template for neutralising the Reform Party—but Burnham’s unique local popularity complicates projecting this success elsewhere.
  • "Has it done something else as well? Do you think it's showing that there is this emerging formula that tactical voting does have the potential to beat reform?" – Annie Kelly [08:28]
  • "Burnham is a very specific person for that place... can he do it on a sunny afternoon in Islington?" – Alexander Topping [09:32]
• Tory-to-Labour Voters: Evidence on the ground showed Conservative voters switched to Burnham to block Reform.
  • "Our correspondents were saying that they were talking to people... they just wanted to keep out Nigel Farage." – Alexander Topping [10:01]

6. Reform Party Woes & Nigel Farage’s Diminished Presence

• Farage Sidelined: Reporting on the £5 million crypto billionaire donation controversy hurt Farage, whose subdued response signals trouble for Reform.
  • "Since that point, Farage just went missing... The sheen may have come off reform slightly." – Alexander Topping [11:04]
• Reform’s Internal Fractures: Poor candidate vetting, sexist remarks, and an erosion from even further right (the Restore party) further weaken Reform’s performance.
  • "There was huge problems with the Reform candidates, past remarks about women and just quite obviously sexist and horrible remarks that he'd made." – Alexander Topping [11:33]

7. Looking Ahead: Predictions and Open Questions

• Leadership Contest Likely: Burnham favours a smooth transition, but a contest remains possible; his rise is rapid but untested on a national scale.
  • "If I, you know, was going to make a bet now, I don't think I would be betting on Keir Starmer being there... What the Burnham camp really want... is a kind of change of fairly orderly changing of the guard..." – Alexander Topping [12:58]
• Uncertain National Appeal: Burnham's charisma and policies face an imminent test beyond the Manchester heartland.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the result’s shockwave:
  "I think everybody has woken up this morning, kind of surprised the scale of the victory that Andy Burnham had overnight."
  – Alexander Topping [01:01]

• Burnham’s unique appeal:
  "He is an extraordinary candidate for that by election... We've seen him do it on a rainy night in Stoke, but can he do it on a sunny afternoon in Islington?"
  – Alexander Topping [09:32]

• On Starmer's fate:
  "I've been an outlier in our office because I have said that I think this is still worth putting a bet on Starmer being in place by the end of the year. That seems increasingly unlikely. I didn't actually put that bet on, which is probably the best."
  – Alexander Topping [12:58]

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Key Timestamps

• 00:50: Burnham’s unexpected, overwhelming victory
• 01:22: Burnham’s all-candidates-combined vote total
• 03:10: Starmer’s defiant response post-victory
• 05:21: The campaign team—key supporters behind Burnham
• 07:07: ‘Manchesterism’ and Burnham’s political vision
• 08:28: Tactical voting and implications for Reform
• 11:04: Effects of Farage’s crypto scandal and Reform’s struggles
• 12:58: Predictions—Starmer’s tenure and Burnham’s ascendancy

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Tone and Style

The conversation blends on-the-ground political analysis with insider perspectives in a brisk, sometimes wry tone—reflecting both excitement and skepticism about the pace and direction of Labour’s shifting fortunes. The episode is fast-paced, engaging, and incisive, mirroring the urgency and unpredictability of British politics in the summer of 2026.

Transcript

[Annie Kelly]

This is the Guardian.

[Alexander Topping]

I do think that the path to number 10 seems clearer than ever.

[Max Rushton]

I do say to my own party, this is a final chance to change what comes next.

[Alexander Topping]

It's all on the table now.

[Max Rushton]

If there is a contest, just to be clear with you, then, yes, I will run, I will stand. And I've said repeatedly, I'm not going to away from that.

[Alexander Topping]

If I, you know, was going to make a bet now, I don't think I would be betting on Keir Starmuth

[Annie Kelly]

from the Guardians today. In focus, this is the latest. With me, Annie Kelly. So what an absolute barnstormer of a win for Andy Vernon.

[Alexander Topping]

Yeah, pretty seismic.

[Annie Kelly]

Alexander Tropping, you're a political correspondent for the Guardian. He came in, he won by a majority of over 9,000 votes. A really decisive win over Reform as well. What's going to happen next?

[Alexander Topping]

Well, it was a huge night in Ashton and Makerfield and I think everybody has woken up this morning, kind of surprised the scale of the victory that Andy Burnham had overnight. I mean, we thought that it would be much closer than it was. There was a real sense in the Labour camp that this was going to be a big moment and it really delivered. What comes next is really. It's all on the table now. There was a sense before this election, this by election in Makerfield, that if, if Burnham lost, obviously it was. It was going to be a very different situation. Also terrible for Labour, but it would have shored up Keir Starmer's position as the leader of the party. There was another option where if he just scraped through, you know, could Starmer allies position that as actually he is the person to take the Labour Party forward, to take the country forward, but actually what we saw is that not only did Burnham increase the majority, I mean, he almost doubled it. It was mad. There was this argument before that the Burnham camp thought that they would be in a really strong position if they could say that Burnham had beaten the vote share that was gained by both Reform UK and Restore. And actually, Burnham didn't only just do that, he got more votes than all of the other candidates combined.

[Annie Kelly]

Yeah, I mean, astonishing.

[Alexander Topping]

So he's in a really strong position this morning, but I think we have to remember that this is probably the strongest position he'll ever be in.

[Annie Kelly]

Yeah, this is it, isn't it? This is the top zenith and I mean, his team said that this defied their expectations. Would you say that his path to number 10 is now kind of almost inevitably secured?

[Alexander Topping]

Nothing is inevitable in this game, but I Think his path to number 10 is much less bumpy now than it looked even 24 hours ago, but certainly than it looked several months ago. I think it's actually been an astonishingly quick journey to Westminster. Keir Starmer has said this morning he's going to fight on. I was at the G7 at Evian and he looked very relaxed. He was saying, you know, I will fight. He was saying it in quite punchy terms, in a way that we haven't really heard from the Prime Minister before. But this morning he will be asking himself those questions. You know, is it the right thing to stay? I think there is going to be. It sounds like at least there's going to be a pause in the Burnham camp. Team Burnham are very much hoping that they can get a coronation rather than a very messy fight, which could be very damaging for the party, particularly in the eyes of the electorate. We saw what happened with the Tories and in 2022, you know, UK voters do not like internal fighting. They want people to be getting on with the job. And that's always been Starmer's argument. You know, we need to not have the fight, get on with the job. And I think people will be saying to him behind the scenes now, if you don't want that fight, if you don't want to tear this party apart, it's time for you to leave. So I do think that the path to number 10 seems clearer than ever.

[Annie Kelly]

And, I mean, what conversations do you think Andy Burnham is going to be having? And who is he going to be having those conversations with over the weekend?

[Alexander Topping]

I mean, that's what, as political reporters, we're all waiting to find out. They will be confident now that he will get to number 10. Obviously, you know, that we're several steps ahead of ourselves there, that there may well be a leadership contest. There's going to be a leadership contest of some sort. You know, even if Dahmer stands aside, will other people stand against him? Will he just, you know, will it be a quarantine? That remains to be seen, but I think Burnham will be very much setting out his stall, speaking to the people that. Who are. Who are already in the Cabinet and others that he may want to bring in. He'll also be looking to the people who have been at the heart of his campaign, like Louise Haig and Anneliese Midgley.

[Annie Kelly]

Brilliant team behind him.

[Alexander Topping]

They have run an astonishing campaign.

[Annie Kelly]

Tell us a bit about them.

[Alexander Topping]

These are like, you know, these strong Northern women who have led this campaign, who have led it with Massive efficiency. There's obviously ongoing dismay in the Labour Party that once again we're talking about who's going to be the next leader of the Labour Party. And once again there's no women in the picture, but there are plenty of women behind Burnham, who, and, and you know, Lou Hay being one of them, who, who is a, who's featured prominently. I would be very surprised if she wasn't taking up a key role. But there'll be others, you know, Ed Miliband, what could he be? The next Chancellor who Burnham chooses as his next chancellor will be key. Rachel Reeves and her team will be putting forward an argument that if he wants to keep ship steady and Burnham's. One of Benham's vulnerabilities is that he made this unfortunate comment about being in hock to the bond market and he's tried to shore up that actually in the last few days. It's interesting he's brought in economic advisors from like Goldman Sachs and former members of the OBR to show that he is, you know, a serious minded politician who wants to stay within the fiscal rules, et cetera. But I think who he chooses as Chancellor that will really set out what a Burnham Cabinet could look like.

[Annie Kelly]

And you've mentioned some of his potential vulnerabilities going forward. Do we know how he intends to, to govern if he does make it into number 10? Do we have any idea of what he would do as Prime Minister to overcome the incredible obstacles that have already tripped up this Labour government?

[Alexander Topping]

What Burnham's been very clear on is that what is happening now isn't working. And I think everyone really does agree with that. But instead of doing this kind of bureaucratic, step by step, Starmer approach to steadying the economy, growing the economy, Burnham seems to want to do something more radical. You know, he talks his, his big picture idea is Manchesterism, where he said it's not about party actually, it's about place. And he wants to take that into Westminster and working with business, working across party, perhaps, you know, bringing the best and brightest together. But it's also significantly to the left of Starmer, I think, you know, Burnham is talked about nationalizing utility companies. You know, I think we may well see the quick nationalization of Thames Water, maybe other energy companies. That stuff is very expensive. So just quite how he'll pay for it remains to be seen. But I think this sense of the state playing a bigger role, but working hand in hand with business has been the image that he's projected in Manchester. And of course transport is a Big one, you know, that he was all know, Vernon for is that he's got the B network in buses in Manchester. So that I think that's the type of thing that he would like to see on a wider picture. But it's much easier to do that in a place like Manchester, where you've got the control over those things than it is.

[Annie Kelly]

And seeing it whether he can deliver in Essex or in Kent or in, you know, any of these places outside of Manchester as well, that would be interesting to see if he can extend that out on a national level and appeal to voters 100%. And just going back to Makerfield by election, I mean it was just such a stunning victory for Burnham for all the reasons we've discussed. But has it done something else as well? Do you think it's showing that there is this emerging formula that tactical voting does have the potential to beat reform?

[Alexander Topping]

I think it really does. I mean, I think we saw tactical voting in Denton but in a slightly different way, Gorton and Denton and I think we saw that again here. Now Labour supporters who are getting extremely excited about this by election victory and, you know, let's give them their moment, they have to remember that this is a very specific place and Burnham is a very specific person for that place. You know, he literally grew up down the road. He's the mayor of Manchester. Everyone knows who he is. He's got this kind of star appeal round there. He is an extraordinary candidate for that by election. So, you know, to mangle a football analogy, we've seen him do it on a rainy night in Stoke, but can he do it on a sunny afternoon in Islington? Does that appeal work as well as in Manchester and the surrounding area? Does it work throughout the rest of the country?

[Annie Kelly]

Also quite extraordinary to see, you know, Tory voters switching over and voting for Burnham over reform.

[Alexander Topping]

Yeah, I think the size of that, like the minuscule amount of people who voted Tory is really key. It was obvious that there was tactical voting going on in Maine on the doorstep. Our correspondents were saying that they were talking to people saying they just wanted to keep out Nigel Farage. And in Gorton and Denton people were kind of angry at Labour and angry at the, at the, the non reform candidates because it's like who should we vote for? Who do we vote for to stop Farage? And I think we've seen that happen again in Makerfield and I think that will happen again in, in the next general election. People will be looking to make unusual choices that they may not have for like Conservative Voters voting for Andy Burnham because they didn't want the Reform candidate.

[Annie Kelly]

And I mean, Nigel Farage, what about him and all of this? He was kind of.

[Alexander Topping]

Where is he?

[Annie Kelly]

He was sort of weirdly absent from maybe film, wasn't he? He kind of left before the results were announced. He's done this very kind of subdued statement this morning. Do you think that this kind of shows that his sheen might be wearing off on voters? Maybe the impact of things like, you know, the 5 million pound gift is starting to take effect.

[Alexander Topping]

I really think that the Guardian's reporting has shifted the dial on this. I mean, I would say this and it's talking to our reporters, but, you know, we reported about this huge gift from this crypto billionaire, Christopher harbor to Nigel Farage, Christopher Harborne. And since that point, Farage just went missing. You know, as political observers, we're used to seeing him on a weekly basis. He takes as many questions as you want. He loves being in the limelight and he's been nowhere to be seen. I think that the sheen may have come off reform slightly. You know, you've seen a situation in Gorton and Denton where it felt like they very much chose the wrong candidate. Again, in Makerfield, there was huge problems with the Reform candidates, past remarks about women and just quite obviously sexist and horrible remarks that he'd made. So I do think there is. It's really exposed some real fault lines in, in Reform. And they've seen a kind of attack from their right, from Restore, which did eat into their vote to a degree in. In Ashton, Makerfield. I mean, it didn't actually emerge to be.

[Annie Kelly]

It would have mattered.

[Alexander Topping]

It wouldn't have actually mattered even if those two. Two votes were put together. But it could matter in other constituencies where the electorate is far more to the right. I mean, let's not forget that Makerfield is like a solid labor seat. It should be somewhere that labor wins. Yeah. So, you know, Farage will point to that this morning. But he did seem quite crestfallen.

[Annie Kelly]

Yeah, I was. I was just really surprised by how kind of downbeat the whole thing was. He wasn't coming out swinging at all, was he? And Lexi, if you were gonna. I mean, this is a kind of. You know, it's a difficult question to ask so early on, but if you're going to put your money on what happens next, what would you. What would you say is going to emerge?

[Alexander Topping]

Oh, no, you put me on the spot. I actually don't know. I'm. I've been an outlier in our office because I have said that I think this is still worth putting a bet on Starmer being in place by the end of the year. That seems increasingly unlikely. I didn't actually put that bet on, which is probably the best. If I, you know, was going to make a bet now, I don't think I would be betting on Keir Starmer being there. Well, what the Burnham camp really want, I think is a kind of change of fairly orderly changing of the guard and perhaps with a coronation with Andy Burnham at Labour Party conference.

[Annie Kelly]

Fascinating times ahead for sure. Thank you so much. Thanks.

[Alexander Topping]

Thanks for having me.

[Annie Kelly]

That's it for today. My huge thanks again to political correspondent Alexandra Topping and thanks for listening to this episode of the latest Today in Focus. We'll be back with you as usual on Monday morning and the latest will be back on Monday night. This episode was produced by Leo Schick and Jacob Antigua. Senior producer. Producer is Ryan Ramgobin and the lead producer is Zoe Hitch and the presenter was me, Annie Kelly.

[Max Rushton]

Hello, I'm Max Rushton. The World cup is back and Football Weekly is going daily. If you want award winning soccer coverage from a podcast that's been overanalyzing the game for more than 20 years and still hasn't run out of opinions or just repeats the same ones over and over again, this is where you'll find it. We'll be producing 33 daily episodes across the tournament, breaking down all the action, the results and of course, the drama. Can the US make it out the group stage and into the spotlight on the biggest stage? World Cup Daily? Listen wherever you get your podcasts or watch full episodes on YouTube.

[Annie Kelly]

This is the Guardian.