Julian Borger (3:02)

Well, what they're offering is an alternative route out of the Strait of Hormuz that would go well south of the established shipping channels and kind of hug the coast and go within Omani territorial waters. And what they're saying to the ships that are trapped in the Gulf is if you follow this route, we'll be watching you. We can protect you from afar, but we have lots of things in the air. We have helicopters and planes and anti drone capabilities. And we will also help ground guide you through what is a very perilous and narrow channel to get out of the strait and to escape the Gulf. The US Bet is that the shipping companies and also the crews on these ships are desperate enough to take that risk under U.S. protection.

Lucy Hoff (3:48)

Yeah, because there's a real human aspect to this story as well, isn't there, Julian, in the sense that there are at least 800 ships currently trapped in the Strait of Hormuz and have been stuck for, you know, nearly three months now with crews of around 20,000 people. Do you think this will stand any chance of succeeding?

Julian Borger (4:06)

Yeah, I think there is a chance. I think what shipping owners are doing at the moment is watching what happens to the first few ships. Two have been confirmed so far, seeing what happens and see if other ships get out. And it's possible that others will decide they were going to take the chance just to get their ships and to get their crews out. But at the moment, on the whole, the shipping owners, from what we hear and said, you know, the insurance companies are very cautious about this. What they want and what they're holding out for is an agreement between Iran and the US that they will both lift their blockades and let all the shipping out and open the strait again. That's what Iran has put on the table, the kind of mutual lifting, but without any discussion about the other issues like nuclear and security. And that's something that the US has not gone for. Instead, they've gone for this sort of more unilateral solution of trying to open a channel out of the strait without Iran's permission.

Lucy Hoff (5:07)

Yeah. And that's what the international community certainly wants as well, a sense of US Iranian cooperation to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, not this risk of conflict, as you say, with these warships in very close proximity to each other. So why has Trump gone for this unilateral approach, do you think? Is it because oil prices have shot to as high as $114 a barrel? Is that what's driving it, do you think? Or is there something else that we can read into his psyche.

Julian Borger (5:33)

Well, you know, sometimes he affects not to really care about the Strait of Hormuz. And he says, well, high oil prices help U.S. oil producers. But on other times, he seems almost desperate to get this resolved because high petrol prices in the US are beginning to buy. Also, he has a trip going to China. And, you know, the Chinese government, a major importer of Iranian oil, buys about 80% of Iranian oil, is not happy about what is happening. And Trump had a whole agenda about what he wanted to talk about in Beijing, but now it looks like if the situation is unresolved, he's going to be just answering questions about the Strait of Hormuz and be on the back foot. So he is under pressure to get something done to move the status quo.

Lucy Hoff (6:26)

Yeah. And facing pressure not just internationally, but also domestically, where he's facing record disapproval ratings. Six in 10Americans now disapprove of his presidency, which will be very worrying for him as we approach the November midterms. Is that playing into all of this decision making, basically, to speed things up in a war that has proved much more complex than perhaps he and his Secretary of defense, Pete Hegseth, anticipated?

Julian Borger (6:52)

Yeah. Clearly they were expecting a quick win, regime change within weeks. This is what in particular, Israel promised was going to happen. Hasn't worked out like that, but it hasn't quite worked out as many Trump watchers would have imagined, too. They imagined that he would fold over high oil prices, inflation, unpopularity, and so far he hasn't. He's stuck with this demand that Iran gives up its nuclear program. Its uranium enrichment program altogether so far has been fairly inflexible over that. And so we are seeing something a bit different. Maybe a Trump that's less worried about political concerns back home, because after all, he's not going to stand for election himself. And Trump is usually all about himself and someone who is more concerned about the kind of legacy he leaves on the world stage. There was recently a very disturbing article in the Atlantic magazine which said he's less comparing himself to Washington and Lincoln these days and more to Alexander the Great, Julius Caesar and Napoleon, which is worrying for all of us. And this idea of what impact you leave on the world stage when you're gone.

Lucy Hoff (8:06)

Yeah, a terrifying prospect. Julian, so you mentioned Israel, and obviously this being an Israeli initiative in the first instance, or Trump entering this war under pressures from Netanyahu's government to do so. Where does Israel stand in all this now?

Julian Borger (8:22)

Well, Israel is a bit out of the loop at the moment because they had promised that regime change would happen relatively quickly. It didn't. And as the war has gone on, Israel has found itself more and more out of the picture. It doesn't get briefings on the peace talks as far as you know, we know from the Israeli press quoting senior IDF officials. And so it's not been consulted except when it comes to Lebanon, where Trump has sort of imposed a ceasefire, a partial ceasefire, at least on the Israelis, which they are chafing under. But at the moment they are sort of out of the picture, but very much willing to get back into the picture if full scale war with Iran restarts. The IDF is telling people they have a lot of targets yet to hit. This was a strategic aim to weaken Iran permanently. And as far as the IDF are concerned, it's a job half done.

Lucy Hoff (9:19)

Well, Julian, thank you for your time and thank you for your reporting.

Julian Borger (9:23)

Thank you.

Lucy Hoff (9:23)

That's it for today. My huge thanks again to Julian Borger, the Guardian's senior international correspondent. You can keep up with his reporting over@theguardian.com before we go, I just wanted to tell you about a new video podcast that our New York office is launching. It's called Stateside with Kai and Carter and it's hosted by our colleagues Kai Wright and Carter Sherman. Each week they're going to be making sense of some of the biggest stories happening right now. The show will feature conversations with some of the smartest thinkers and reporters, not just from the Guardian, but across the world. It's launching on the 13th of May, with episodes every Monday, Wednesday and Friday. You can find it in full video on YouTube and wherever you get your podcasts. Thanks for listening to this episode of the latest Today in Focus will be back in your feeds as usual tomorrow morning. The latest will be back tomorrow night. This episode was presented by me, Lucy Hoff. It was produced by Bryony Moore and Sam Grouet. The lead producer was Zoe Hitch. This is the guardian. Foreign.

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