Has Trump reignited war with Iran? – The Latest

Summary

Podcast Summary: Today in Focus – The Latest

Episode: Has Trump’s ‘Project Freedom’ Reignited War with Iran?
Date: May 5, 2026
Host: Lucy Hough
Guest: Julian Borger, Senior International Correspondent, The Guardian

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Episode Overview

This episode of Today in Focus (The Guardian) explores rising tensions in the Middle East following President Trump’s announcement of “Project Freedom”—an American-led initiative to reopen the vital Strait of Hormuz, currently blockaded amid conflict involving Iran, Israel, and the US. Host Lucy Hough is joined by Julian Borger, reporting from Jerusalem, to break down the military, geopolitical, and human stakes of this latest escalation, assess the motives behind the US’s move, and examine possible consequences as ceasefire arrangements teeter on the brink.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Project Freedom and Renewed Tension in the Strait of Hormuz

• Background:

  • A near month-long ceasefire had brought some calm, but unresolved issues over shipping blockades in the Strait of Hormuz—essential for global oil trade—have kept international tensions high.
  • Blockades by both sides have stranded roughly 800 ships and 20,000 crew members for nearly three months ([03:48]).

• The US Move:

  • “Project Freedom,” announced by President Trump, brings US warships, helicopters, and anti-drone measures into very close proximity with Iranian ships, heightening the potential for direct military confrontation ([02:30]-[03:02]).
  • The US offers an alternative, “hug-the-coast” route for stranded ships, guiding them via Omani waters with US protection, but without Iranian consent. This is intended to break the deadlock and pressure Iran, but increases risk ([03:02]-[03:48]).

• Julian Borger:

  “What this new initiative does is it brings US warships close to Iranian ships, small boats, drones ... The chances of something blowing up are much greater than they were yesterday.” ([02:30])

2. The Human and Economic Stakes

• Human Impact:

  • Crews aboard stranded ships are in limbo. Their owners are cautious, awaiting the outcome of this risky first wave of attempts to escape under US auspices ([03:48]-[04:06]).

• Wider Effects:

  • Oil prices have spiked to $114 a barrel, placing huge pressure on global markets—adding impetus for the US and world community to find a solution ([05:07]).

• Julian Borger:

  “Shipping owners ... are watching what happens to the first few ships ... Insurance companies are very cautious about this. What they want ... is an agreement between Iran and the US that they will both lift their blockades and let all the shipping out and open the strait again.” ([04:06])

3. Strategic and Political Calculations Behind Trump’s Move

• International Factors:

  • China, a key importer of Iranian oil, is displeased with the ongoing crisis, adding to diplomatic pressure on the US, especially with Trump’s upcoming trip to Beijing ([05:33]).

• Domestic Pressures:

  • Trump faces record disapproval ratings (6 in 10 Americans), with domestic unrest over high petrol prices and political complexity of the war ([06:26]).

• Unilateral vs. Cooperative Solutions:

  • Iran has offered a mutual lifting of the blockade, but the US has refused, seeking instead a unilateral “solution” ([04:06]-[05:07]).

• Julian Borger:

  “He has a trip going to China ... And Trump had a whole agenda ... but now it looks like if the situation is unresolved, he's going to be just answering questions about the Strait of Hormuz and be on the back foot.” ([05:33])
  “Clearly they were expecting a quick win, regime change within weeks ... It hasn't worked out like that, but ... he’s stuck with this demand that Iran gives up its nuclear program ... fairly inflexible over that.” ([06:52])

4. Trump’s Evolving Leadership Style and Legacy Obsession

• Strategic Shift:

  • Trump appears more focused on legacy than political gain, with comparisons shifting from past US presidents to historical conquerors.

• Implications:

  • This quest for a dramatic place in history may drive reckless or escalatory decisions.

• Julian Borger:

  “We are seeing a Trump that's less worried about political concerns back home ... and someone who is more concerned about the kind of legacy he leaves on the world stage. There was recently ... an article in the Atlantic ... less comparing himself to Washington and Lincoln ... more to Alexander the Great, Julius Caesar, and Napoleon, which is worrying for all of us.” ([07:39])

5. Israel’s Role and Position

• Current Situation:

  • Israel, which initially pressured for US involvement, now finds itself sidelined.
  • Israel is not actively involved in current peace negotiations and is only consulted on Lebanon-related issues; the partial ceasefire imposed by Trump is resented by Netanyahu’s government ([08:22]).

• Julian Borger:

  “Israel is a bit out of the loop at the moment ... They had promised that regime change would happen relatively quickly. It didn’t ... They are sort of out of the picture, but very much willing to get back into the picture if full scale war with Iran restarts. The IDF is telling people they have a lot of targets yet to hit.” ([08:22])

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “What this new initiative does is it brings US warships close to Iranian ships, small boats, drones ... The chances of something blowing up are much greater than they were yesterday.”
  — Julian Borger ([02:30])

• “We are seeing a Trump that’s less worried about political concerns back home because after all, he’s not going to stand for election himself. And someone who is more concerned about the legacy he leaves on the world stage... less comparing himself to Washington and Lincoln these days and more to Alexander the Great, Napoleon, which is worrying for all of us.”
  — Julian Borger ([00:46], [07:39])

• “Shipping owners ... are watching what happens to the first few ships ... Insurance companies are very cautious about this. What they want ... is an agreement between Iran and the US.”
  — Julian Borger ([04:06])

• “Israel ... is sort of out of the picture, but very much willing to get back into the picture if full scale war with Iran restarts. The IDF is telling people they have a lot of targets yet to hit. This was a strategic aim to weaken Iran permanently. And as far as the IDF are concerned, it’s a job half done.”
  — Julian Borger ([08:22])

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:46 — Julian Borger’s opening analysis: Trump’s shifting strategies and legacy focus.
• 01:23–02:51 — Overview of Operation Project Freedom and the rising risk of direct military confrontation.
• 03:02–04:06 — Details on the new US-led escape route for ships and human impacts.
• 05:07–06:26 — Economic and political drivers; pressures from oil prices, China, and US domestic politics.
• 07:39–08:06 — Trump’s legacy obsession and risks of escalation.
• 08:22–09:19 — Israel’s current role and strategic aims if conflict re-escalates.

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Tone and Final Reflections

The tone throughout is urgent and analytical, with Julian Borger providing measured but sobering insights into the dangerous uncertainty of the current moment and the psychology driving US decision-making. Listeners are left with a sense of foreboding about both regional and global ramifications as deterrence risks break down, and a rising possibility of a much wider war.

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For comprehensive updates and in-depth analysis, Julian Borger’s reporting is available on The Guardian website.

Transcript

[Lucy Hoff]

This is the Guardian.

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[Julian Borger]

Sometimes he affects not to really care about the Strait of Hormuz and other times he seems almost desperate to get this resolved. And so we did a little detour and it's working out very nicely. They have no navy, they have no air force, they have no anti aircraft equipment. We are seeing a Trump that's less worried about concerns back home because after all, he's not going to stand for election himself. And someone who is more concerned about the legacy he leaves on the world stage. He's less comparing himself to Washington and Lincoln these days and more to Alexander the Great, Napoleon, which is worrying for all of us.

[Lucy Hoff]

Donald Trump has launched a new operation Project Freedom to try and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. But could it cause a major re. Escalation, escalation of the war with Iran and bring an end to the ceasefire from the Guardians today. In Focus, this is the latest. With me, Lucy Hoff. Well, joining me down the line from Jerusalem is Julian Borger, our senior international correspondent. Thanks for dialing in, Julian. It's lovely to have you on the show. So it's now nearly a month since the ceasefire was agreed between the US And Israel and Iran. And in sort of military terms, things felt like they were settling down. But there has been this continued tension over the Strait of Hormuz, this vital crossing where one fifth of the world's oil passes through that has caused such damage to the world's economy with a blockade imposed by either side there, there has been a re escalation with the US sending in the last 24 hours ships to the Strait. Iran is now saying things haven't even begun. Are we looking at a situation where things could really kick off again in military terms?

[Julian Borger]

Yeah, absolutely. Because what this new initiative does is it brings US Warships close to Iranian ships, small boats, drones. And so as they're in proximity to each other in a very tight waterway, then the chances of something blowing up are much greater than they were yesterday.

[Lucy Hoff]

Okay, well, that sounds very alarming. And this is a new initiative announced by the US Yesterday by Donald Trump called Project Freedom. What does this actually entail?

[Julian Borger]

Well, what they're offering is an alternative route out of the Strait of Hormuz that would go well south of the established shipping channels and kind of hug the coast and go within Omani territorial waters. And what they're saying to the ships that are trapped in the Gulf is if you follow this route, we'll be watching you. We can protect you from afar, but we have lots of things in the air. We have helicopters and planes and anti drone capabilities. And we will also help ground guide you through what is a very perilous and narrow channel to get out of the strait and to escape the Gulf. The US Bet is that the shipping companies and also the crews on these ships are desperate enough to take that risk under U.S. protection.

[Lucy Hoff]

Yeah, because there's a real human aspect to this story as well, isn't there, Julian, in the sense that there are at least 800 ships currently trapped in the Strait of Hormuz and have been stuck for, you know, nearly three months now with crews of around 20,000 people. Do you think this will stand any chance of succeeding?

[Julian Borger]

Yeah, I think there is a chance. I think what shipping owners are doing at the moment is watching what happens to the first few ships. Two have been confirmed so far, seeing what happens and see if other ships get out. And it's possible that others will decide they were going to take the chance just to get their ships and to get their crews out. But at the moment, on the whole, the shipping owners, from what we hear and said, you know, the insurance companies are very cautious about this. What they want and what they're holding out for is an agreement between Iran and the US that they will both lift their blockades and let all the shipping out and open the strait again. That's what Iran has put on the table, the kind of mutual lifting, but without any discussion about the other issues like nuclear and security. And that's something that the US has not gone for. Instead, they've gone for this sort of more unilateral solution of trying to open a channel out of the strait without Iran's permission.

[Lucy Hoff]

Yeah. And that's what the international community certainly wants as well, a sense of US Iranian cooperation to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, not this risk of conflict, as you say, with these warships in very close proximity to each other. So why has Trump gone for this unilateral approach, do you think? Is it because oil prices have shot to as high as $114 a barrel? Is that what's driving it, do you think? Or is there something else that we can read into his psyche.

[Julian Borger]

Well, you know, sometimes he affects not to really care about the Strait of Hormuz. And he says, well, high oil prices help U.S. oil producers. But on other times, he seems almost desperate to get this resolved because high petrol prices in the US are beginning to buy. Also, he has a trip going to China. And, you know, the Chinese government, a major importer of Iranian oil, buys about 80% of Iranian oil, is not happy about what is happening. And Trump had a whole agenda about what he wanted to talk about in Beijing, but now it looks like if the situation is unresolved, he's going to be just answering questions about the Strait of Hormuz and be on the back foot. So he is under pressure to get something done to move the status quo.

[Lucy Hoff]

Yeah. And facing pressure not just internationally, but also domestically, where he's facing record disapproval ratings. Six in 10Americans now disapprove of his presidency, which will be very worrying for him as we approach the November midterms. Is that playing into all of this decision making, basically, to speed things up in a war that has proved much more complex than perhaps he and his Secretary of defense, Pete Hegseth, anticipated?

[Julian Borger]

Yeah. Clearly they were expecting a quick win, regime change within weeks. This is what in particular, Israel promised was going to happen. Hasn't worked out like that, but it hasn't quite worked out as many Trump watchers would have imagined, too. They imagined that he would fold over high oil prices, inflation, unpopularity, and so far he hasn't. He's stuck with this demand that Iran gives up its nuclear program. Its uranium enrichment program altogether so far has been fairly inflexible over that. And so we are seeing something a bit different. Maybe a Trump that's less worried about political concerns back home, because after all, he's not going to stand for election himself. And Trump is usually all about himself and someone who is more concerned about the kind of legacy he leaves on the world stage. There was recently a very disturbing article in the Atlantic magazine which said he's less comparing himself to Washington and Lincoln these days and more to Alexander the Great, Julius Caesar and Napoleon, which is worrying for all of us. And this idea of what impact you leave on the world stage when you're gone.

[Lucy Hoff]

Yeah, a terrifying prospect. Julian, so you mentioned Israel, and obviously this being an Israeli initiative in the first instance, or Trump entering this war under pressures from Netanyahu's government to do so. Where does Israel stand in all this now?

[Julian Borger]

Well, Israel is a bit out of the loop at the moment because they had promised that regime change would happen relatively quickly. It didn't. And as the war has gone on, Israel has found itself more and more out of the picture. It doesn't get briefings on the peace talks as far as you know, we know from the Israeli press quoting senior IDF officials. And so it's not been consulted except when it comes to Lebanon, where Trump has sort of imposed a ceasefire, a partial ceasefire, at least on the Israelis, which they are chafing under. But at the moment they are sort of out of the picture, but very much willing to get back into the picture if full scale war with Iran restarts. The IDF is telling people they have a lot of targets yet to hit. This was a strategic aim to weaken Iran permanently. And as far as the IDF are concerned, it's a job half done.

[Lucy Hoff]

Well, Julian, thank you for your time and thank you for your reporting.

[Julian Borger]

Thank you.

[Lucy Hoff]

That's it for today. My huge thanks again to Julian Borger, the Guardian's senior international correspondent. You can keep up with his reporting [e-mail] before we go, I just wanted to tell you about a new video podcast that our New York office is launching. It's called Stateside with Kai and Carter and it's hosted by our colleagues Kai Wright and Carter Sherman. Each week they're going to be making sense of some of the biggest stories happening right now. The show will feature conversations with some of the smartest thinkers and reporters, not just from the Guardian, but across the world. It's launching on the 13th of May, with episodes every Monday, Wednesday and Friday. You can find it in full video on YouTube and wherever you get your podcasts. Thanks for listening to this episode of the latest Today in Focus will be back in your feeds as usual tomorrow morning. The latest will be back tomorrow night. This episode was presented by me, Lucy Hoff. It was produced by Bryony Moore and Sam Grouet. The lead producer was Zoe Hitch. This is the guardian. Foreign.

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Today's markets move fast. Get the insights you need in 10 minutes with the Barclays Brief, a new podcast from Barclays Investment Bank. Through sharp dialogue and scenario based analysis, our leading experts analyze key market themes each week. So whether you're managing a portfolio or leading a business, the Barclays Brief podcast can help you make smarter decisions today. Stay sharp, Stay brief. Find Barclays Brief Wherever you get your podcasts.