In Makerfield for the byelection that could change everything

Summary

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Today in Focus: "In Makerfield for the byelection that could change everything"

The Guardian | June 15, 2026
Host: Helen Pidd | Reporter: Josh Halliday

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Overview

This episode of Today in Focus takes listeners to Makerfield, a previously unremarkable parliamentary constituency in the north of England, now at the epicenter of a high-stakes byelection with national ramifications. The contest is not just a routine political battle but could herald seismic shifts in both the Labour Party’s leadership and the wider landscape of British politics. Reporter Josh Halliday blends on-the-ground interviews, political analysis, and local colour to capture the intense mood in Makerfield, where Andy Burnham’s attempt to return to Westminster – and perhaps seize Labour’s national leadership – faces challenges from Reform UK and the insurgent far-right Restore Britain party.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Why Makerfield Matters (01:21–03:09)

• Until recently, Makerfield was little-known even among British politics aficionados. Its sudden prominence comes after Andy Burnham, Mayor of Greater Manchester and former Labour MP, launched a campaign to stand as MP following the resignation of Josh Simons.
• With Burnham’s candidacy, the seat has become a pivotal battleground; a Labour loss could trigger major changes in political leadership and strategy.

“I can't remember a more consequential by election. If Andy Burnham wins, he will launch a leadership bid to, as he would see it, save the Labour Party.” — Josh Halliday (02:38)

2. Voters on the Ground: Uncertainty, Strategic Voting & Burnham’s Appeal (03:18–04:21, 05:17–06:49)

• Local sentiment is shaped by campaign saturation: voters are inundated by journalists and canvassers, fueling both voter fatigue and heightened political awareness.
• Many residents see this as a “two-horse race” between Labour and Reform, leading to reluctant ‘tactical voting’ to keep out less-favored options.

“I think it'll probably be Labour this time around...I think it comes down to the strategic voting, which I don't like to do.” — Local Mother (05:30)

• Burnham’s local roots give him unique credibility; voters remember his previous work in nearby Leigh and as Greater Manchester Mayor.

“I think Burnham actually cares about places like this. He's from places like this. He knows what he's talking about.” — Local Voter (04:02)

• Some younger voices, even children, reflect the political climate:

“Reform sucks…Because they lie all the time. All they want is to be in power.” — Child Voter (06:13, 06:28)

3. Discontent with Labour and Rise of Reform (06:55–08:30)

• Some are motivated less by party loyalty than by individual candidates. Burnham is seen as distanced from perceived shortcomings of the current Labour leadership.
• Economic hardship and a sense of being “left behind” are prevalent; Burnham is seen as someone who might address these issues.

“Starmer...feels as though they're very out of touch with the average person in the street. I just feel like Andy Burnham's sort of the only breath of fresh air.” — Local Voter (07:53)

• Previous Labour supporters are considering Reform, citing frustration and feeling abandoned by traditional politics.

4. Makerfield's Demographics & Political Identity (04:21, 08:30–10:19)

• 97% white constituency with high home ownership and relatively affordable housing.
• Labour stronghold for over a century, but with Brexit roots (“red wall”), and increasing vulnerability to Reform’s message.

“You've got a Labour Party that is much more popular because his candidate is not tied to this Labour government…vote for Andy, vote for Andy. It's all about us.” — Josh Halliday (09:09)

• Burnham’s image is carefully curated: “our Andy” branding, vibrant marketing, and emphasis on unity.

5. Immigration: The Defining Issue (12:51–16:34)

• Immigration, particularly “small boats,” overshadows campaign discourse. Recent criminal cases involving immigrants have fanned anxieties.
• Burnham’s position stresses order, legal process, and resisting inflammatory rhetoric:

“It’s never the answer to violence like this to then produce more violence...Politicians and their words have consequences.” — Andy Burnham (13:18)

• Reform supporters voice concerns about illegal immigration, despite local demographics suggesting limited direct impact.

“We can't sustain it. We're just...We're lad on our back and they were tickling our bellies, you know what I mean?” — Reform Supporter (14:53)

• First-time voters from immigrant backgrounds express fear and alienation:

“What Reform and what Rob Kenyon wants to do and what Farage wants to do is they want to say you can go back to the country…dehumanizing you and taking away all your rights.” — Amy, 18, Estonian-British (16:40)

6. Reform’s Candidate, Robert Kenyon: Controversy and Working-Class Appeal (17:06–20:36)

• Reform’s candidate Robert Kenyon, a local plumber, is controversial due to a history of offensive remarks (sexist, homophobic, transphobic, and anti-abortion).
• He’s tried to frame this as an asset—he’s not a polished politician but “one of the people.”
• Community reactions are divided; some reject the idea that his “ordinary” status excuses bigotry.

“He's a sexist and oh yeah, he's not gonna clue what he's talking about.” — Local Resident (20:01)

“You don't have to be the lowest common denominator to be one of the people.” — Local Voter (20:08)

• Even in traditionally Labour establishments, like the Bryn Social Club, skepticism of Kenyon is laced with humour:

“Rob Kenyon doesn't know his arse from his elbow. It's probably the definition of a U bend, isn't it? Because it's full of shit.” — Lisa, Club Manager (20:49)

7. The Outsider: Restore Britain’s Surprising Rise (21:27–24:27)

• Restore Britain, a new far-right party led by ex-Reform MP Rupert Lowe, leverages a strong online presence to disrupt the race and siphon votes from both Labour and Reform.
• Their platform focuses on extreme immigration controls and populist law-and-order policies, finding traction among disengaged or disillusioned voters.

“Restore have bought nearly double the amount of advertising on Facebook and Instagram than Reform…Restore's candidate is Rebecca Shepherd, a local businesswoman...focused on Turkish barbers and vape shops under this lens of, you know, there must be some criminality there.” — Josh Halliday (22:53–23:44)

• Lowe’s supporters praise his uncompromising rhetoric and claim he “follows through.”

“You ask her a question, she answers you...She knows all the policies. She knows what she's talking about.” — Restore Supporter on Rebecca Shepherd (24:06)

• Their third-place polling is “absolutely astonishing,” and their impact could alter the outcome.

8. Scenarios: What Happens Next? (28:03–31:19)

• If Burnham wins, a Labour leadership contest seems imminent; he’s reportedly secured much of the necessary MP support already.
• A sizable victory would further boost his case to take on Labour's top job, potentially redefining the party and its approach to Reform.
• Should Reform win, it would be a harbinger of Labour collapse in future elections, putting Farage in striking distance of Number 10.

“If Andy Burnham can't beat Nigel Farage in Reform, then no one can for Labour. It's pretty much as simple as that.” — Josh Halliday (31:00)

• Restore’s rise introduces uncertainty, possibly splitting the right-wing vote and upending all predictions.

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• Makerfield’s Rise to Prominence: 01:21–03:09
• Tactical Voting & Local Voices: 03:18–07:03
• Economic Hardship & Burnham’s Appeal: 07:03–08:30
• Labour Identity and Branding: 09:05–10:19
• Immigration Debate: 12:51–16:34
• Reform’s Controversial Candidate: 17:06–20:36
• Far-right Restore Britain’s Online Push: 21:27–24:27
• Election Scenarios and Consequences: 28:03–31:19

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Reform sucks.” — Child Voter (06:13)
• “Burnham was all right when he was at Lee…He did all right Manchester, but I don't know if I'll change my vote yet or not.” — Local Voter (11:10)
• “We've got to stop the boats coming over. I've nothing against…foreign people coming over legally. But we've got to make a stand.” — Reform Supporter (14:39)
• “What reform and what Rob Kenyon wants to do...is they want to say you can go back to the country. That is dehumanizing you and taking away all your rights.” — Amy, first-time voter (16:40)
• “Rob Kenyon doesn't know his arse from his elbow. It’s probably the definition of a U bend, isn't it? Because it's full of shit.” — Lisa, Bryn Social Club manager (20:49)
• “This is not really an election about Labour versus Reform. It's an election about Andy Burnham versus Reform and Reform versus Restore.” — Josh Halliday (28:03)

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Episode Tone & Takeaway

The tone throughout is urgent but laced with local humour and humanity. The episode expertly illustrates how one by-election can become a microcosm of national anxiety, capturing the complexity of voter motivations, the appeal and drawbacks of political personalities, and the unpredictable energy of both digital campaigning and political disaffection.

If Burnham triumphs, Labour could be on the cusp of seismic change; if he falters, the political map will be redrawn by insurgent forces. In Makerfield, as goes the byelection, so may go the future of British politics.

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Transcript

[Helen Pidd]

This is the Guardian.

[Josh Halliday]

Today. The by election that could change everything.

[Helen Pidd]

Today In Focus is supported by Paramount plus the agency. All episode streaming June 21st on Paramount Plus. In the world of espionage, truth is a moving target and every decision carries a dangerous consequence. This new mission explores what it means to live as a double agent. Twice the lies, twice the risk. The lines between ally and enemy blur like never before and. And survival depends on trusting no one. Starring Michael Fassbender, Jeffrey Wright, Jodie Turner Smith and Richard Gere. Don't miss the Agency. All episode streaming June 21st on Paramount.

[Josh Halliday]

Even if you consider yourself quite up on your politics, be honest. You probably hadn't heard of Makerfield until about a month ago. I was north of England editor for more than a decade before joining Today in Focus. And even I had never been there. Though it's only in Wigan, the other side of Greater Manchester from where I live. It's a place that doesn't often make national news. Then this happened in the last hour.

[Guardian Journalist]

The Mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham, has made his move. The MP for Makerfield, Josh Simons, has agreed to stand aside for him.

[Josh Halliday]

Ever since Simon stepped down, Makerfield has been besieged by reporters, pollsters and canvasses. And your favourite daily news podcast.

[Guardian Journalist]

Excuse me. Hiya. We're journalists from the Guardian doing a story about the Bay election.

[Local Resident 1]

You're like the fifth journalist today if you bear with me.

[Local Resident 2]

There's just people walking around all the

[Local Resident 1]

time and then you're seeing like, the likes of Nigel Farage, unwillingly. You can't go into Ashton, but we'll get in like, like hounded by them all.

[Josh Halliday]

Not everyone has made their mind up yet.

[Local Resident 3]

Ahead of Thursday's vote, I'm 5050 between Anna Burnham and Reform. Me and my wife are really torn and it will go down to that last day.

[Josh Halliday]

But everyone has an opinion.

[Child Voter]

All I want to say is reform sucks.

[Guardian Journalist]

Reform sucks.

[Josh Halliday]

The stakes could barely be higher. I can't remember a more consequential by election. If Andy Burnham wins, he will launch a leadership bid to, as he would see it, save the Labour Party.

[Andy Burnham]

So I think Wes Streeting seems to have launched a leadership contest. So if that is running, I would seek to join it, but I'd have to persuade.

[Josh Halliday]

But if Reform wins, Nigel Farage will be mentally measuring up the curtains in Downing street himself.

[Nigel Farage]

Are you talking to the next Prime Minister? I think so, yes.

[Josh Halliday]

From the Guardian, I'm Helen Peard. Today in Focus on the ground in Makerfield.

[Guardian Journalist]

So we've just arrived in Ashton. In Makerfield, Where? Which gives this constituency its name. And we are here to talk to

[Josh Halliday]

people, to see how they're feeling about this by election.

[Guardian Journalist]

Are they already fed up of being

[Josh Halliday]

vox popped by people like us?

[Guardian Journalist]

Excuse me. I love your T shirt. We are beautiful and an idiot at the same time. Jack Brow, and we're journalists from the Guardian.

[Josh Halliday]

We're making a podcast about this by election.

[Guardian Journalist]

Have you heard about it?

[Local Voter 1]

Oh, can you not hear about it? I mean, it's ridiculous.

[Guardian Journalist]

Are you gonna vote?

[Local Voter 1]

I am gonna vote, yeah.

[Guardian Journalist]

And have you decided who?

[Local Voter 1]

Oh, yeah, I'll be voting Labour and I think to keep reform out, really.

[Guardian Journalist]

Okay. And what do you make of Andy Burnham choosing this place not just to return to Parliament, but potentially to get to Downing Street?

[Local Voter 1]

I think it is a stepping stone to Downing Street. But then equally, I think Burnham actually cares about places like this. He's from places like this. He knows what he's talking about. He's done it before in Lee, so it kind of makes sense.

[Josh Halliday]

Leigh is Andy Burnham's old constituency, the one he represented for 16 years before he left Westminster to become the mayor of Greater Manchester in 2017. It's next door to Makerfield, which is a collection of towns south of Wigan on the border between Greater Manchester, Merseyside and Lancashire. You can live a good life here without earning a fortune. More than 70% of residents own their homes and you can buy a four bed semi for under 300 grand. Almost everyone here, 97% is white. The constituency in various forms, has sent Labour MPs to Parliament for more than 100 years. At the last general election, Josh simons won a 5,399 majority for Labour. Reform came second, then fielding local plumber Robert Kenyon, who's standing again in the by election this time round. Tactical voting is a big thing with people voting for what they consider the least worst choice.

[Mother]

Do you want to speak to about the by election coming coming up?

[Guardian Journalist]

Do you know about it like this?

[Josh Halliday]

Mother and daughter. We met walking home from after school club. Brace yourself for the best informed 7 year old in the north of England.

[Guardian Journalist]

And who are you going to vote for?

[Mother]

I think it'll probably be Labour this time around, but it's not necessarily because I only want to. I think it's just really a two horse race and I think it comes down to the strategic voting, which I don't like to do.

[Josh Halliday]

Yeah.

[Mother]

But I think kind of hands are tied. It's either you know them or the worst area.

[Guardian Journalist]

Absolutely. With your heart not voting strategically in any way. Not tactically voting. Which party would it be?

[Mother]

It'd probably be Green, right? It's been Green in the past. It was Green at the last one.

[Josh Halliday]

Yeah.

[Mother]

I just don't think in this situation, you know, we stand a chance.

[Guardian Journalist]

If I'm being honest, it would feel like a wasted vote. Would it? Yeah. So your priority is to stop Nigel Farage. Right. So if you were voting maybe Labor.

[Child Voter]

I would go for Green if I had like a choice. Same with Mummy. I don't really like Labour, but since it's. If I could vote, since it's kind of a one horse race and reform sucks, I would probably go for Labor.

[Guardian Journalist]

Reform sucks. Why'd you say that?

[Child Voter]

Because they lie all the time. All they want is to be in power. They say that they're gonna give hospitals and policeman, when really, where's all that money coming from?

[Guardian Journalist]

And how do you know so much about politics? Is this at school or do you learn this at home?

[Child Voter]

No, I learn this at home because I actually want to be Prime Minister when I grow up to help the animals.

[Josh Halliday]

In Ashton, we meet a couple, John and Lisa, who are going for lunch with their two year old son. John says he's voting Labour.

[Guardian Journalist]

Who'd you go for?

[Local Voter 2]

Labour.

[Guardian Journalist]

Really? What about Andy Burnham?

[Josh Halliday]

Well, actually, he says he's voting for Andy Burnham. He's less sold on the current incarnation of the Labour Party.

[Guardian Journalist]

What about Keir Starmer? Don't you like?

[Local Voter 2]

I, I just, I, I feel as though even he seems to be focusing on a lot of the, the wrong things.

[Josh Halliday]

Like what?

[Local Voter 2]

Like, you know, it came, came straight like the, the winter fuel allowance catastrophe with the, the pensioners. You know, I understand the, the things about. I feel like there's more important things to focus on.

[Guardian Journalist]

How easy is it to manage at the moment, financially?

[Local Voter 2]

We were literally having this conversation yesterday, weren't we? And it's like, like quite lucky. Yeah, we're quite lucky that I'm, I am way above the average salary and even my money goes like I was talking about when we take the mortgage out, take the bills out, take the telly out and all that, it's like there's not a lot left. I'm saying that I don't know how people who aren't on as much as I'm on manage to make ends meet.

[Local Resident 4]

Treating the kids after we're layers and layers and layers in the house because they can't just run the heat in,

[Josh Halliday]

you know, it's sad.

[Local Voter 2]

It is really tough. And I mean that's, that's one of the reasons why I sort of. I would like Andy Burnham to get in because maybe he can make a bit of a difference. Because the thing is, it's like, you know, Starmer Farage. It feels as though they're very out of touch with the average person in the street. I just feel like Andy Burnham's sort of the only breath of fresh air that's not going to either turn us into a mini USA or just keep letting things get worse.

[Josh Halliday]

Josh Halliday, you're the north of England editor of the Guardian. My old job now Makerfield, is a Leave voting area. It's former Labour heartlands, a bit red wally. The kind of place where Reform has been doing really well in the last couple of years. And to add to that, if you look at the national polls, Reform really should win this by election. There was a YouGov poll last week which put reform on 25% and the Tories in Labour were tied on 19% in second place. Do you think, though, that we should actually be paying any heed at all to the national polls when we're looking at Makerfield in particular?

Well, Reform have been heading the polls now nationally for quite some time, but in Makerfield, I really think it's a completely different picture. You've got a Labour Party that is much more popular because his candidate is not tied to this Labour government.

He's almost not running as a Labour candidate. I would say he's like, vote for

Andy, vote for Andy. It's all about us. We together vote Labour to change Labour. You look at the sort of advertisements that Andy's put out with the illustrator Stanley Chow's graphic of him, our Andy. You know, Andy's for us, we're for him. Vibrant colours. They've made it feel like they are the underdogs, which is weird because they're the party of government. It's not like any by election I've ever covered. Probably not for you either. It's really unique.

And I guess Andy Burnham seems to be able to transcend the Labour Party. He's one of the few politicians in the country that has a net positive approval rating. When Labour Party members are polled, they always say that he is their favourite choice to be the leader of the party. So he does seem to be able to really rise above everything that's swirling around the Labour Party, or has done ever since the general election two years ago.

It's quite incredible, really. And I mean, I think a lot of that is down to the fact that he hasn't been in Westminster for the best part of a decade. He's not tarnished with the sort of chaos and this perception that government can't get stuff done. He's been up in Greater Manchester, he's been able to get things done which he never ties of telling people about. And he has this sort of ability to connect with ordinary people and really speak this message of, you know, the country isn't working for ordinary people. And that is the message of our time.

[Mother]

Does get his one. I know there's a lot of people complaining that he's a career politician and he just wants to be pm. But then ultimately, does having a local lad as our PM hurt us? It'd be nice to have someone who is northern rather than a southerner with a southern agenda. So if he does get to his wish, I can't see how it could really be any worse for us.

[Local Voter 1]

Well, I did vote reform last time, but I'd like Burnham. Burnham was all right when he was at Lee.

[Guardian Journalist]

Right.

[Josh Halliday]

Okay.

[Local Voter 1]

He did all right Manchester, but I don't know if I'll change my vote yet or not.

[Guardian Journalist]

Do you think Andy Burnham would be

[Josh Halliday]

a good prime minister?

[Local Voter 1]

What he did up here if he could do it down there and bring it up here? Yeah. Because I think we get left behind when it comes down to like, you know, the north gets left behind a lot. But I think he is farther north.

[Josh Halliday]

It doesn't hurt that Burnham has lived in the area so long that half of the voters seem to have met him or at least seen him out and about.

[Local Resident 2]

Andy Burnham's from around here. He's from where? Around where I live. He sent his kids to the high school right next to me, next to my old high school on this college. And he went. Yeah, his kids went to this college. He saw directly how it has affected his kids, how it's affected him since he's again lived in the area. I think he's for and he wants to actually try benefit it.

[Local Resident 3]

I know Andy Burnham from. He's been in my house, to be honest with you. His daughter went to school my daughter.

[Guardian Journalist]

Oh, yeah.

[Local Resident 3]

I don't know. I don't know him personally, but he has been in my house.

[Guardian Journalist]

What, to pick his daughter up?

[Local Resident 3]

Yeah. So we've had a chat and blah, blah, blah. And I do like what he did with great to Manchester. Whatever he's ever said to to the public in Wigan. Lee Manchester, what he said he's going to do is done. But he also has not said what he will do with the boat situation.

[Guardian Journalist]

Right.

[Local Resident 3]

And I Think the boat situation is going to sway the vote reform. I do like the thought of the most people won't stop these boats. That's the main thing. So they're saying all the right things on that situation.

[Josh Halliday]

If there's one issue that has loomed largest over this by election, it is immigration. Two tragedies have poured fuel on the debate. First, the murder of Henry Novak in Southampton, who bled to death after being handcuffed while his murderer, a Sikh man, lied to police. And then last week, a Sudanese refugee was charged with attempting to murder a man in Belfast. Here's Burnham's response to the attack at Hustings that were organised by the Manchester Evening News.

[Andy Burnham]

The facts are that you can be deported after an incident of this. Of this kind. The individual concerned, I believe, has leave to remain. That can be revoked. The final thing I would say, though, is it's never the answer to violence like this to then produce more violence on the streets, violence that attacks people's homes or public transport. Politicians and their words have consequences. And we've got to move back from the society where we're stoking up further problems with violence, meeting more violence on our streets.

[Josh Halliday]

Many people we meet in the constituency, a constituency which, remember, is 97% white, are exercised by immigration, particularly small votes.

[Guardian Journalist]

Yeah. So we've seen your Reform Board outside. Why are you voting reform?

[Reform Supporter]

Because I'm actually well paid off. I'll put it politely with every other party.

[Guardian Journalist]

And previously, were you ever a Labour supporter?

[Reform Supporter]

Yeah, My mother and father would kill me if I would. They were still alive for voting. Anything but Labor.

[Local Voter 2]

Wow.

[Guardian Journalist]

And now you've got to the point you're actually promoting a different party.

[Reform Supporter]

I would, yeah.

[Local Voter 1]

Yeah.

[Reform Supporter]

Promote them all the way. Even if they'll. Even if we lose this. But I'd still vote for them in a general election.

[Guardian Journalist]

And what do you. What do you like about Nigel Farage? And what makes you think that he's got what it takes to change Britain? Is your wife just making a face?

[Reform Supporter]

You know, we've got to stop the boats coming over. I've nothing against, you know, foreign people coming over legally.

[Guardian Journalist]

Yeah.

[Reform Supporter]

But we've got to make a stand.

[Local Resident 5]

We can't sustain it.

[Reform Supporter]

We're just. We're lad on our back and they were tickling our bellies, you know what I mean?

[Josh Halliday]

Many voters feel that illegal immigrants are getting an easy ride and that Labour isn't doing enough to stop them arriving or deporting them once they get here.

[Local Resident 6]

Immigration, rather. You've got people coming over and they're working. Fair enough. You've got people come over in the freeloading, they're coming over without passports. That's a massive cost for the company. And who's paying for it all? All these young families are trying to get rid of the cart grocery because they're paying for them. It's not right, is it?

[Guardian Journalist]

But the most of the immigration to the UK is not people coming on small boats. Most of it is people coming over legally with visas, students.

[Local Resident 6]

And then somewhere they get on the benefit system, don't they? We notice it more because we have a very low immigration number in this area.

[Guardian Journalist]

I think it's 97% white British here.

[Local Voter 2]

No.

[Local Resident 6]

Every day you see more and more and like I said, the less places for them to go, they're being dumped in these areas because there's no else for them to go.

[Josh Halliday]

Me, who's been the labourman.

[Guardian Journalist]

Are you gonna burn? No, he's not.

[Local Resident 6]

No, he's this one now the Fulton Reform.

[Nigel Farage]

I don't like Nigel's barrage but something's got to be done.

[Josh Halliday]

I actually feel Nigel's Farage is right.

Something needs to be done about the immigration.

Farage of course would vehemently deny being a racist but for Makerfield constituents with an immigrant background, the focus on immigration is scary. This is 18 year old Amy, a first time voter.

[Local Resident 2]

I'm the daughter of an immigrant mother. I was not born in this country but I moved here when I was young. So I.

[Guardian Journalist]

Where were you born?

[Local Resident 2]

I was born in Estonia, my mother's from Estonia. I've got very strong cultural roots too. Not, not England. What reform and what Rob Kenyon wants to do and what Farage wants to do is they want to say you can go back to the country that is dehumanizing you and taking away all your rights.

[Josh Halliday]

Josh. Nigel Farage and Reform, in attempt to learn from their defeat in the Gordon and Denton by election have this time round decided to stand. Robert Kenyon, a local plumber who also stood for them in 2024 and they've been leaning heavily on his background both as a tradesman and a local white van wave. Make a few gone turquoise. Watch the Hollands rise. Rob Kenyon pull up plumber with the tools.

[Rupert Lowe]

David versus Goliath.

[Josh Halliday]

Kenyon has come in for a lot of heat because of things that he'd previously posted online. For those who've missed it, can you remind us what did he say then and is he standing by those remarks?

I mean. Well, Robert Kenyon managed to offend pretty much Everybody of his last decade on social media there were examples of homophobic comments, transphobic, sexist comments. There were pretty degrading comments about Carol Vorderman, the former television presenter, and some about abortion, saying women only get abortion so they can quote, shag anyone they want. He has sort of apologized in a very half hearted way saying, you know, accepting that some of his comments were crass and that he wouldn't post them

[Local Resident 6]

today, you know, so I think something

[Andy Burnham]

that said, you know, 15 years ago

[Local Resident 6]

dragged up from an old rugby forum, you know, it's, it's completely taken out of context and like I say, I've made mistakes. I said things years ago that I

[Local Resident 3]

wouldn't say now and I definitely don't

[Local Resident 6]

believe that on that point, you know, it's, yeah, so I hope that addresses that issue. And it's like, so I've got nothing but respect for women.

[Josh Halliday]

But then both he and Reform have tried to use it to his advantage, saying it's just proof that he's not a polished professional politician and he can, you know, speak to ordinary working people.

[Nigel Farage]

They're the sort of comments that you won't necessarily get if you're an Oxford educated career politician living in a nice postcode in London. But I tell you what, they're the kind of comments you'll hear in every pub in the country every evening. And we should be unapologetic.

[Josh Halliday]

It's a big throw of the dice. I mean, I think there will be lessons for this for reform, just like there were lessons for reform after the Gorton and Denton by election. Candidates still matter, but did they get the best candidates for these particular seats? From what we've seen in terms of some of the constituency polls that have been out there, but also the question time hustings where these comments were brought up repeatedly is that Robert Kenyon and Reform are having a pretty hard time with women.

Yeah, we definitely heard that when we were in Makerfield and people were saying, you know, kind of insulted at the

[Guardian Journalist]

suggestion that it's just part of being

[Josh Halliday]

a working class lad.

[Local Resident 4]

Everyone, everyone's saying, oh, you know, he's a local guy, Robert Kenyon and some of the stuff he's come out with, he's not got a clue what he's talking about.

[Local Voter 2]

He's admitted he's sexist straight away.

[Local Resident 4]

Yeah, he's a sexist and oh yeah, he's not gonna clue what he's talking about.

[Local Voter 2]

I get that people come in with the attitude, he's a local lad, you know, he represents us Kind of thing, like, he doesn't represent me. I'm not sexist. I don't hold them views. I. I don't, you know, I don't. I don't walk around saying, oh, women shouldn't be able to drive, shouldn't be. I don't want to talk about sniffing Carol Vorderman. You know, you don't have to be the lowest common denominator to be one of the people don't feel this.

[Local Resident 4]

And now any woman could vote for him.

[Local Voter 2]

I don't feel, feel like he's. Honestly, I don't feel like he's intelligent enough for the job, as harsh as that sounds.

[Josh Halliday]

We head to Bryn, an area north of Ashton where Kenyon was elected local reform councillor last month. We pop into the Bryn Social Club, which until last year was branded the Bryn Labour Club, and we get chatting to Lisa, the manager.

[Local Resident 1]

Rob Kenyon doesn't know his arse from his elbow.

[Guardian Journalist]

So, you know, you're not impressed with him then.

[Local Resident 1]

Well known, obviously. It's probably the definition of a U bend, isn't it? Because it's full of shit. So that's my opinion on it.

[Guardian Journalist]

Good plumbing joke.

[Local Resident 1]

Well, you've got to get it in, haven't you? You got to get it in. So that food.

[Guardian Journalist]

What do you think about what he said about women? You bothered about that? Rob Kenyon?

[Local Resident 1]

Well, I think he's an is. He's the of the country at the minute, after King. So, you know, why would anybody vote for that?

[Guardian Journalist]

Who do you think is going to win?

[Local Resident 1]

I want Bistro to win.

[Guardian Journalist]

Right.

[Local Resident 1]

I'm a member of Barista.

[Guardian Journalist]

Right.

[Josh Halliday]

Okay, Josh, this byelection is being fought online as well, if not more than actually on the doorstep. And if we look at which of the candidates is arguably winning the online race, the race for eyeballs, then it's arguably not Andy Burnham and it's not Nigel Farage. It's Rupert Lowe, the former Reform mp, who has since established a new party which is even further to the right than reform. And it's called Restore Britain, where she made an episode all about them a couple of weeks ago.

[Guardian Journalist]

Now, this is a party which has

[Josh Halliday]

talked about deporting millions of people, about bringing back the death penalty. This is a party with a leader who's talked about the UK importing murderous Third World savages in response to the Belfast attack last week. And this was supposed to be a two horse race, but Restore, through their online presence, have managed to sneak into third place, haven't they?

So it's still a Very, very fringe outfit. You know, it doesn't have anywhere near the scale of operation as Reform or the number of canvassers or campaigners or councillors. So it relies heavily on social media to reach its voters. I had a quick look at the ads on Facebook and Instagram in this by election campaign. And Labour pretty far outstrips parties by the number of ads it's purchased.

[Andy Burnham]

I put forward my contract for Makerfield, which is what I will put forward if I am your mp, to deal with the flooding infrastructure.

[Josh Halliday]

But interestingly, Restore have bought nearly double the amount of advertisings on Facebook and Instagram than Reform. But in Makerfield, they really seem to have fought themselves into a place where they could affect the outcome. Restore's candidate is Rebecca Shepherd. She's a local businesswoman and she's been campaigning on restore's national place, pledged to overhaul immigration laws, but also local issues around antisocial behavior on high streets, violence against women and girls. And also she's focused on Turkish barbers and vape shops. You know, under this lens of, you know, there must be some criminality there. Nigel Farage has banged this drum as well, but Restore seems to be going further with it.

[Guardian Journalist]

And what do you like about them? What do you think makes them different from Reform?

[Local Resident 1]

Because they follow through with what they say. And their mp, the candidate for. The candidate for MP here, Rebecca Shepherd, I've met her and she is fantastic. You ask her a question, she answers you with an answer. She knows all the policies, she knows what she's talking about. That's just my opinion.

[Guardian Journalist]

No, and I mean, I guess they've kind of. You say they've followed through, but they're

[Josh Halliday]

unproven at the moment, aren't they?

[Local Resident 1]

Rupert Loy said he was gonna obviously, obviously do the rape gang inquiry. You follow through with it. That's what people have wanted to know for several years and nobody else. Farage said he'd do it twice. Never did it. Rupert gave us what we wanted, so for me, he's the guy, you know,

[Josh Halliday]

the polls seem to have them in third. They're hovering around 10 percentage points of the vote, which is absolutely astonishing, really, considering they didn't exist, you know, six months ago.

[Guardian Journalist]

Yeah.

[Josh Halliday]

And that's bigger than the projected tiny lead that Andy Burnham has in the polls. Right.

It's quite remarkable. It's worrying for a lot of people who care about, you know, the future of not just this country. But it's very worrying for Nigel Farage. His old colleague turned enemy Rupert Lowe could blow this by election for reform. What's Rupert Lowe got that it's appealing

to some people over you?

[Nigel Farage]

Thank you very much, Elon Musk. Thank you. Most people here who say restore, and by the way, it's not a very big percentage, most people here would not recognize a photograph of him.

[Josh Halliday]

Right.

[Nigel Farage]

This is stuff that pops up on their phones. That has been the problem with it. I do not believe for a moment it will last.

[Josh Halliday]

And most people, I think, expect Nigel Farage to move further to the right to head off this rise of Restore Britain. Some suggested that Nigel Farage's response to the Henry Novak killer sentencing this call for pure cold rage was an attempt to see off anything that might be said by Restore Britain and really get on the front foot with it. That seems to have backfired. Polls suggest that most people disapproved of his stance on that.

And from what we saw in Make a Field, Restore Britain seemed to be able to touch part of the electorate that other politicians have been unable to reach. And these are people who in many cases have never voted or haven't voted in decades. Why do you think Rupert Lowe is managing to connect with them? This is a 68 year old multimillionaire whose life is so far removed from peoples in Makerfield.

I think there's been a sense as reform have risen in the polls that they've kind of reached a peak around the sort of 25 percentage points mark. Some have sort of started to see them as two establishment. You can tell they've got a lot of money floating about by the size of their campaigns, the glitziness of the videos they produce, the events they put on. Whereas Restore are the insurgents in this race, more of a grassroots operation. You know we'll go much further than reform.

Coming up, how British politics might look very, very different on Friday morning.

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[Rupert Lowe]

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[Podcast Host 2]

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[Rupert Lowe]

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[Josh Halliday]

So, Josh, I've come away from my trips to Makerfield thinking that this is not really an election about Labour versus Reform. It's an election about Andy Burnham versus reform and reform versus Restore. Let's talk about the various scenarios. If Burnham wins, what happens next?

So if Andy Burnham wins Maker Phil by election this week, then I'll be very surprised. If he didn't mount a leadership challenge very, very soon, I think he'd want to take the momentum straight into Westminster. I think he'd want to get the parliamentary Labour Party to rally behind him. There's reports that he's already got at least 100 MPs.

He needs more than 80, doesn't he, to be on the ballot paper to

back him in a leadership campaign? I think it might depend on the size of his majority if he does win. But I think if it's anywhere over 4,000, 5,000 votes majority, I think he could clearly sell that to Labour as look back me and together we can beat reform.

And his camp seemed to be saying, off the record, that they hoped that he would be installed in Downing street in time for the Labour Party conference, which is at the end of September. So that would be a feverish summer of Labour Party leadership shenanigans, because it's not only the MPs, is it, who get to vote, it's also party members and the trade unions.

[Advertisement Voice]

Yeah.

[Josh Halliday]

And it's all the infighting that would go along with the leadership campaign that would dominate the headlines all summer. And this from a government that came in less than two years ago saying, the Prime Minister said, you know, he wants politics to tread more lightly on people's lives and an end to the chaos and division that overshadowed the Conservatives.

Cue hollow. LAUGHTER yeah, yeah. And when you're talking to your Labour sources, so councillors and MPs, what are they telling you about how it's been canvassing in Makerfield? Because a lot of them have been there, haven't they? Which tells its own story.

I think they feel really energized by it. It certainly feels very different to the two other by election campaigns they've been since the last general election, which were in Runcorn and Helsby and then Gorton and Denton. Labour was on the back foot constantly in those. They lost both of them. So, you know, there's this energy. The polls at the minute have them about 10 percentage points ahead. I mean, none of the Labour contacts that I talk to say Labour's got this in the bag. You know, they all sort of insist it's still very tight. But I think there is a, you know, increasingly this confidence that, that they can win and win with a sizable margin.

But it's not out of the question that Reform win.

[Guardian Journalist]

If they win, what does that mean

[Josh Halliday]

for Farage and the party?

Well, it means they're on a fast track to number 10 at the next general election. The opinion polls nationally don't lie. If Andy Burnham can't beat Nigel Farage in Reform, then no one can for Labour. It's pretty much as simple as that. So it would be serious alarm bells ringing in inside number 10.

They're absolutely stuffed, aren't they?

You know, it feels like their last throw of the dice, really. I mean, he's certainly not the only leadership candidate, but he looks like the only one that could give Reform a serious run for their money, particularly in seats like Makerfield.

That was Josh Holliday, the Guardian's north of England editor. You can follow his coverage and all of our by election coverage and the aftermath of Thursday's [e-mail] and that is all for today. This episode was produced by Ivor Manley and Saskia Collette and presented by me, Helen Pidd. Sound design was by Ross Burns and the executive producer was Sammy Kent. We're back in your feeds later this afternoon with the latest.

[Helen Pidd]

This is the Guardian.

[Rupert Lowe]

Many business leaders see AI's tremendous potential for their companies, but they're still struggling to turn that potential into measurable results and competitive advantage. I'm Andrew.

[Podcast Host 2]

And I'm Sarah Elk. And on our new podcast, Winning with AI, we're talking to CEOs who are using AI to drive business transformation, delivering real wins and changing how their companies run.

[Rupert Lowe]

We'll hear how leaders empower and mobilize their people and make the use of AI part of how the whole organization thinks. Winning with AI par le tu francais hablaz espanol?

[Josh Halliday]

Parliament.

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[Local Resident 5]

Obsessed. I'm literally spending right now on the lip gloss that's been sitting in my cart.

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[Local Resident 5]

You instantly spend your balance with the Venmo debit card.

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[Local Resident 5]

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[Local Resident 5]

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