Noshi Nikbal (2:58)

And of course, there are wider implications across the Gulf that the war has spread. Lebanon has been hit by bombs from Israel. Hezbollah has been striking Israel, Saudi, Bahrain, Qatar. I mean, everyone seems to be embroiled in some way in retaliatory strikes. How do you think this plays out for the Gulf, and how do you think those countries will respond?

Jamie Wilson (3:18)

Well, yeah, I mean, he promised that this wasn't going to turn into some major wider regional war that was going to go on for months or years, and that this was a matter of days or weeks rather than months or years. But the kind of blowback has been pretty extraordinary, perhaps a lot more than the Americans thought it would be. Iran has an awful lot of the Shaheed drones that it's been using or that it's given to the Russians that they've been using in Ukraine for many years. They're very low tech, they're very inexpensive, but they're quite hard to defend against. And so they've managed to fire them at countries across the region, from Kuwait to Saudi Arabia to Bahrain and indeed Dubai, where we've seen these drones crashing into kind of hotels that European and other tourists use throughout the year. So pretty extraordinary scenes to see that happen. The Gulf countries have put out a statement this morning condemning the Iranians for their response, but it's hard to imagine that sort of behind the scenes. They're also probably not quite angry with the Americans for having launched this war that has then led them to be under attack. I mean, there's going to be, you know, certainly for places like Dubai, which relies on its tourist industry, seeing drones crashing into and exploding into hotels, it's not going to be great for that going forward. So imagine behind the scenes, there's probably quite a lot of anger.

Noshi Nikbal (4:40)

And even from the American perspective, I mean, you had three fighter planes shot down in Kuwait and these extraordinary images of the pilots parachuting down, and that was actually done by mistake by the Kuwaitis. So you can just see this picture of chaos.

Jamie Wilson (4:54)

Yeah, I mean, that was kind of extraordinary. Images video of these planes falling out of the sky, as you say, shot down in a friendly fire instant by the Q80s. But yeah, it just shows that not everything goes to plan when you launch these kind of major wars against a country that does have certainly a lot less missiles and defenses than it had before the war in June last year when a lot of that was taken out, but still has an awful lot of capability to fight back. How long that capability lasts, we're not sure. And that's going to be one of the big questions for probably the next few days and weeks, if it goes on that long. Exactly how long can Iran keep firing back? The Americans and Israelis have complete control of the skies over Iran at the moment, it seems, and presumably the Iranians have a limited supply, but how big that supply is, we just don't know.

Noshi Nikbal (5:45)

Right. And of course, there's also wider concern in the UK that we may be embroiled in this conflict in some way or another, because on Sunday you saw the Prime Minister saying that there wasn't going to be permission to the US to use UK military bases in the region to launch strikes on Iran. Now, that very quickly changed. And the US did use UK military bases, of course, as we saw. Jamie, how realistic is it, do you think, that the UK will be dragged into this conflict?

Jamie Wilson (6:12)

Yeah, I'm sure that Keir Starmer will be desperate not to get dragged into it any further. But, I mean, yeah, as you say, the kind of position is always already changed, just in a few short days. And we've also seen drones fired at British Air Force base in Cyprus, which is pretty extraordinary. We don't exactly know where that drone came from. Possibly it was fired by Hezbollah in Lebanon rather than coming all the way from Iran, but you just never know quite what may happen next. And, yeah, at some point it may be that the UK feels it has to get involved to stop that from happening or to. Yeah, I'm sure they'll be resistant to that, but they've already got, you know, British has already got dragged into it far more than they'd like to, I'm sure. And interesting how furious Trump was not being allowed to use the British Air Force bases to begin with. He's already said that today that Starmer was far too slow in allowing that to happen.

Noshi Nikbal (7:07)

Yeah, he changed his tune very quickly. And of course, our colleagues on Politics Weekly will be exploring that question a bit further. Jamie, when it comes to the global ramifications, there are further consequences. When we look at the price of oil rocketing, when we look at the economic situation that this war may place many countries in.

Jamie Wilson (7:24)

Well, yeah, again, that's a really big question. We've already seen the oil price go up considerably. The longer this goes on, the longer the ships aren't getting through the Strait of Hormuz, rather than the higher that's likely to go. That has all sorts of major implications, really, not least for inflation, which has been a huge issue across so many countries and including in America. And that has potentially big implications for the Midterms that Trump's doing everything he can to try and radium the cost of living in the U.S. but if gas prices go up above other prices go up, that potentially could play badly for the midterms.

Noshi Nikbal (8:02)

And you do wonder how that tallies though with the midterms, with how the American electorate feel about the potential for this war and how it affects their pocket. I mean, is that a calculation, do you think, for the White House right now?

Jamie Wilson (8:15)

Because we just don't understand Trump's thinking entirely on this. It's really hard to know what he's thinking. He's not up for election next time around. But you know, if the Republicans do really badly in the midterms, that's gonna make the sort of last two years he's in office incredibly difficult for him. So you would think he's thinking about politics. There are lots of people saying, well actually part of this is to try and kind of stop people from talking about the Epstein revel. Is that true? It's really hard to know. I find that to launch such a massive war for that think is a little bit unlikely. But you never know. You never know.

Noshi Nikbal (8:49)

Jamie, how much do you infer that the agenda for this war has actually been set by Israel because it is a primary objective for Netanyahu to absolutely degrade Iran?

Jamie Wilson (8:59)

Well, yeah, I mean certainly Netanyahu has Trump's ear, definitely feels like this is very much an Israeli led war. Pete Hegseth, when he was speaking kind of interestingly, actually said that the sort of war aims of the US and Israel potentially were quite different. And for Israel, I think the aim is to is regime change in Iran or even a civil war in Iran. Chaos in Iran kind of works for Israel in a way. It means that they're not a threat to Israel and it means that Iran's proxies, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, is not a threat either. So definitely we know that Netanyahu is incredibly influential inside the White House and it does feel like, yeah, that they very much push this at this moment.

Noshi Nikbal (9:45)

And meanwhile, of course strikes are raining down on Iran and Trump has claimed that they have killed 48 of Iran's top leaders, including of course the Ayatollah. Jamie, what do you make of this alleged invitation he's given to the Iranian people to take this once in a lifetime opportunity for generational change? I mean, how likely is it that the Iranian regime will fall?

Jamie Wilson (10:07)

I mean we've seen an incredible sort of split screen moments in Iran over the last, over the last few days with some of the population jubilant at the killing of the Ayatollah, who they see as having kind of held them back for years. And we are just a few short weeks since these massive protests across Iran in which thousands of people died. We still have no real idea exactly how many thousand died, but an awful lot. So we've sort of seen kind of real jubilation from part of the country, but at the same time an awful lot of people out on the streets in mourning and, you know, kind of absolutely furious at what's going on and very, very angry with America. And, you know, and which, which of those two sides wins out at this point is really hard to say, other than the regime is still by far the heaviest, more heavily armed than the civilian population. I mean, the civil war doesn't have any arms. It's sort of, yeah, it's going to, you know, one side is, is a real military force, the other one isn't. So. But at the same time, things can change very quickly. We saw that in Syria last year with the fall of the Assad regime, which crumbled incredibly quickly. So when these things do take hold, it can happen very fast.

Noshi Nikbal (11:27)

And then, Jamie, finally, if we just pretend for a moment that we are living in normal times, what possible legal justification is there for these strikes and what precedent does it set on a global political stage?

Jamie Wilson (11:40)

It's very hard at this point to see any kind of legal justification for this. This is a war of choice. There wasn't, you know, I think pretty much all the US intelligence assessments were that there was no immediate threat from Iran at this point. So this was very much a war of choice, you know, carried out now probably because both the US and Israel saw that Iran was at possibly its weakest point that it could possibly be, as I said, following the attacks last June in which an awful lot of Iranian sort of missiles and military defenses were taken out, and then the recent protests that has absolutely roiled the country. And presumably they thought, if there is going to be a moment when the regime does fall, this is it, hence why to do this now. But there's no legal justification for that in that sense.

Noshi Nikbal (12:36)

But just absolutely meets Israel and America's objectives.

Jamie Wilson (12:39)

Absolutely, absolutely. And yeah, I mean, we have seen a sort of falling apart of the rules based order since Trump took office for his second term. And how that plays out. Yeah, that sort of, I guess somebody like Vladimir Putin would seeing another strong man failed is probably not something he's desperately keen to see either. But, but at the same time, kind of the sort of condemnation of his invasion of Ukraine becomes much harder when something like this happens. And I guess for China, you know, the kind of always the big question is will they, will they decide to at some point invade Taiwan? And again, does this give them license to do that? I'm not sure, but sort of some, certainly some people think so.

Noshi Nikbal (13:26)

Gosh, Jamie, thank you for your time.

Jamie Wilson (13:29)

You're very welcome.

Noshi Nikbal (13:30)

That's it for today. My huge thanks again to Jamie Wilson, the Guardian's head of international news. Thanks for listening to this episode of the latest, the new evening edition of Today in Focus. Today in FOCUS will be back tomorrow morning with more analysis of this situation in Iran. And we'll be back tomorrow night. This episode was presented by me, Noshi Nikbal. The producers were Bryony Moore and Annie Levesper. The senior producer was Ryan Ramgovin and the lead producer was Zoe Hitchcock.

Farnoosh Tarabi (14:00)

This is the Guardian.

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