Podcast Summary: "Is Cuba Trump’s Next Target?"

Today in Focus – The Guardian
Date: March 26, 2026
Host: Nosheen Iqbal
Guests: Daniel Montero (journalist, Belly of the Beast), Rory Nicholl (journalist, The Guardian, based in Havana)

Episode Overview

This episode explores Cuba's deepening humanitarian and political crisis amid a U.S.-imposed "oil blockade" and escalating rhetoric from President Donald Trump. With the island suffering blackouts, fuel shortages, and economic paralysis, the discussion centers on the impact of U.S. policy, the resilience of ordinary Cubans, and speculation about Trump’s ultimate motives and possible next moves. The episode features on-the-ground insights from Havana and analysis of both U.S. and Cuban intentions, with poignant testimony about the lived reality on the island.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Cuba Under Siege: The Reality on the Ground

• Crisis Deepens:
  • As of early 2026, Cuba faces the harshest sanctions in its history, including stringent U.S. efforts to starve the country of oil (01:14).
  • Allies like Venezuela and Mexico have been pressured by the U.S. to halt oil supplies; public services and daily life are severely disrupted.
• Impact on Daily Life:
  • Daniel Montero reports 12 hours of daily blackouts in Havana, even more severe outside the capital. Daily routines are defined by electricity’s fleeting availability. (03:00)
  • Blackouts mean scrambling to cook, preserve food, and perform basic tasks during uncertain windows of power.
  • “When you’ve been going through three days of blackouts and your food’s going bad in the fridge … I don’t even know how to describe it.” — Daniel Montero (03:56)
• Community Resilience:
  • Despite hardship, Cubans rely on community, improvisation, and mutual support.
  • “There’s no other way to survive the crisis than by … looking after one another.” — Daniel Montero (04:36)

2. Atmosphere and Social Mood in Havana

• Insights from the Street:
  • Life appears “normal” on the surface— people carry on, though anger, frustration, and sadness simmer (05:19).
  • “You can see that people are frustrated. … But at the same time, they still find the time to laugh and to work and to do the things that they do.” — Daniel Montero (05:26)

3. The U.S. Oil Blockade’s Political Goals

• Strategy of Pressure:
  • The goal of the blockade is to provoke a national uprising and force regime change (05:26), but, as of now, there is no widespread revolt.
• Transport, Tourism, and Society Halt:
  • Rory Nicholl describes the transport network and tourism industry as “pretty much ended,” schools and many businesses are closed (06:53).
  • “Tourism has ended … The country is grinding to a halt.” — Rory Nicholl (06:53)
• U.S. Tactics:
  • Washington allows private gasoline imports to individuals (if not used by the government), a curious loophole (07:44).

4. Geopolitics and Allies

• Role of Venezuela and Mexico:
  • The U.S. used threats (tariffs, diplomatic pressure) to halt Cuba’s supply lifelines, including forcing Mexico to cut off oil deliveries (08:04).
  • Oil blockade is described as “holding because everybody's so scared of what Donald Trump will do.” — Rory Nicholl (08:35)

5. Trump’s Motives and the Ambiguity of U.S. Aims

• Trump’s Desire for a “Win”:
  • Trump’s comments signal an interest in taking credit for “taking Cuba”—whether by “freeing” or “taking” it (12:34, 12:44).
  • “I think I could do anything I want with it. You want to know the truth?” — Donald Trump (12:44)
• Rubio’s Agenda:
  • Marco Rubio (Secretary of State) is motivated by Cuban-American heritage and personal ambition for regime change, rather than mere optics (09:04, 09:04).
  • “Donald Trump wants a win… but his attention wanders.” — Rory Nicholl (09:17)

6. Fear of Escalation and Military Action

• Rising Tensions:
  • Daniel Montero articulates a growing fear of actual military action for the first time in his life (13:00).
  • “If you had asked me last year … I would have said no, of course not. That’s ridiculous. Now … I don’t think it’s ridiculous at all.” — Daniel Montero (13:00)
• Cuban Military Preparations:
  • Reports that Cuba’s military is preparing for a possible U.S. attack; the government describes such preparation as “not naive” (13:50).

7. Negotiations and Leadership Change

• Washington’s Demands:
  • Key U.S. demand is reportedly the removal of Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel.
• Lack of Charisma, Deep Problems:
  • Díaz-Canel, born post-revolution, lacks the charisma of the Castros and is less popular. (14:41)
  • “I don’t think Cuba’s problems will be resolved with Miguel Diaz Canel stepping from power tomorrow … I do think our most pressing problems will disappear tomorrow if Trump lifted the oil blockade.” — Daniel Montero (15:47)
• Successors and Systemic Change:
  • U.S. rumored to prefer Raul Castro’s grandson (“Raulito”) as a replacement, but this is unlikely to bring true system change (17:21, 18:27).
  • “Would that make a difference in terms of how the political system works? … Of course not.” — Daniel Montero (18:27)

8. Potential for Concessions and Economic Openness

• Cuban Openness to Investment:
  • Cuba’s deputy PM indicates willingness to consider U.S. and Cuban-American investment (21:39).
  • Such measures are welcomed within Cuba—already occurring informally (21:52).
• Limits of Concessions:
  • Daniel Montero argues concessions might placate Trump, who wants a political “win,” but are unlikely to satisfy hardliners like Rubio (21:52).

9. Discontent, Blame, and Prospects for Change

• Who Is Blamed?
  • The public’s anger is turning more toward the United States as the blockade's effects grow undeniable, though the Cuban government’s popularity is sharply declining (23:02).
  • “No one can now say that this is not connected to the United States.” — Daniel Montero (23:02)
• Hope and Despair:
  • Despite personal longing for better conditions, Daniel admits, “I try not to hope anymore” (23:46).
  • The blockade is described as a form of war, devastating hospitals and causing preventable deaths, especially among mothers and babies (23:46).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Life Under Siege:
  • “There are no bombs falling in Havana, but the United States is waging war against Cuba as well, and there are victims to it.” — Daniel Montero (01:54/23:46)
• On U.S. Policy:
  • “All we need you to do is to suffer, suffer, suffer until you rise up and make a regime change. That’s what the United States is doing.” — Daniel Montero (16:44)
• On Community:
  • “What they try to do is come together to look after one another, because there’s no other way to survive the crisis than by doing that.” — Daniel Montero (04:26)
• On the Opaqueness of the Cuban Government:
  • “I have no idea what’s going on in the government, but I don’t feel bad about that because I have yet to meet a diplomat, a businessman, a journalist that actually knows what’s happening.” — Rory Nicholl (11:18)
• On Living Through History:
  • "I have a book that says 'Cuba on the verge.' It's dated 2003. Next to it is a book said 'last days of the Castros' from 1993." — Rory Nicholl, highlighting recurring predictions of Cuba’s collapse (11:56)
• On the Shift in Public Attitude:
  • “Even those that are going out to protest understand that the only solution the government might have to that is to step down and to let the Americans take over.” — Daniel Montero (23:02)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [01:14] – Overview of U.S. blockade and life in crisis-stricken Havana (Daniel Montero)
• [03:00] – Daily life and coping strategies under blackouts
• [05:26] – Describing the atmosphere in Havana; resilience and frustration
• [06:53] – Direct impacts of blockade: transport, tourism, and shuttered services (Rory Nicholl)
• [08:04] – U.S. pressures on Mexico, Venezuela; context of regional alliances
• [09:17] – Trump’s motives; Rubio’s personal agenda
• [12:34/12:44] – Trump’s comments on Cuba: “Taking Cuba”
• [13:00] – Growing fear of U.S. military escalation (Daniel Montero)
• [14:41] – Díaz-Canel and the Cuban succession question
• [18:27] – On whether leadership change would alter Cuba’s political system
• [21:39] – Cuba’s willingness to allow more foreign and diaspora investment
• [23:02] – Public attitudes—anger at U.S., declining support for government
• [23:46] – On hope, despair, and humanitarian impact

Final Note

This episode paints a stark picture of life in Cuba amid an intensifying U.S. blockade, capturing both the suffering experienced by ordinary people and the complicated motivations shaping U.S. and Cuban leadership. It probes whether Washington’s pressure will achieve regime change, and interrogates whether proposed economic openings could defuse the crisis. The voices from Havana deliver a human face to the geopolitical contest, warning of the risks of escalation while exposing the limits of hope in the face of a grinding crisis.