Is Putin about to go to war with Europe? – The Latest

Summary

Podcast Summary:

Today in Focus – The Latest: "Is Putin about to go to war with Europe?"
Date: December 3, 2025 | Host: Lucy Hoff | Guest: Luke Harding (Guardian Foreign Correspondent)

---

Episode Overview

This episode of "Today in Focus – The Latest" dives into the escalating tensions between Russia, Ukraine, and the West, spotlighting Vladimir Putin’s recent threats towards Europe and the ongoing faltering peace talks. With reporter Luke Harding fresh from Ukraine, host Lucy Hoff examines the on-the-ground reality, global diplomatic efforts, fractured alliances, and the stark disconnect between Trump-era US policy and Europe’s position. The discussion is urgent—raising the core question: Are we closer to outright war between Russia and Europe?

---

Key Discussion Points

1. Stalled Peace Talks and Growing Tensions

[00:53–02:00]

• Host Lucy Hoff frames the situation: Peace talks between the US and Russia over Ukraine have stalled; Putin appears increasingly belligerent, stating Russia is “ready for war” if provoked.
• NATO responds with assurances of its own preparedness.
• Luke Harding characterizes the negotiations as “not an easy situation,” reiterating that Russia isn’t acting in good faith:
  • "This is not actually a peace process because the Russians are not serious. They want to continue the war and they think they are winning." (Luke Harding, [01:12])

2. Ukrainian Skepticism and On-the-Ground Reality

[02:00–03:04]

• Harding gives a harrowing snapshot from his recent visit to Kyiv:
  • Near-nightly missile attacks and constant danger.
  • Russian troops slowly advance in the east, but Ukraine holds out.
  • The Ukrainian public is deeply skeptical of international negotiations, sensing that supposed peace talks are “not real.”
• Criticism of the US delegation, including Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, whose meetings with Putin seem choreographed.
  • "They were kept waiting for several hours by Putin, as is his way… It sounds like quite limited progress was made." (Lucy Hoff, [03:04])

3. Putin’s Strategic Messaging and Threats to Europe

[04:36–05:54]

• Putin’s recent televised speech—deliberate military attire, threatening rhetoric—frames Russia as a perennial victim while warning that it’s “ready” for a wider war.
• Harding interprets this as classic Kremlin propaganda designed to split the US from Europe and keep Ukraine isolated:
  • "There's a sort of KGB play at work here, which is to divide America from its traditional European and NATO allies, to exploit Ukraine's weakness." (Luke Harding, [04:56])
• Ongoing corruption scandals in Ukraine further complicate solidarity behind the Ukrainian government.

4. Europe’s Role, Frozen Russian Assets, and Trump’s Influence

[05:54–07:18]

• Europe, feeling patronized and sidelined, wants a seat at the negotiations.
• Key issue: $210 billion in Russian assets frozen since the 2022 invasion.
  • EU leadership, led by Ursula von der Leyen, aims to redirect these funds to support Ukraine.
  • Opposition from Belgium (legal anxieties) and Trump (per leaked "peace" plan, he’d rather invest the money with Russia).
  • "Putin and Trump want to put their little mitts on this money together." (Luke Harding, [06:53])
• Some progress noted, but Europe’s support is far from guaranteed.

5. Zelenskyy’s Position: Defiance and Constraints

[07:18–08:38]

• Zelenskyy won’t compromise on key constitutional issues (territorial integrity, NATO membership, military sovereignty) despite pressure.
• Harding relays direct insights from interviewing Zelenskyy, who, while not afraid of Trump, will not sign a “bad peace deal.”
  • "Zelenskyy knows that he can't sign a bad peace deal...thousands... would demonstrate against him." (Luke Harding, [07:54])
• Trump, meanwhile, is seen as either pro-Putin or indifferent.

6. US Strategic Shift: Indifference and Business Over Geopolitics

[08:38–10:17]

• With US direct military aid halted, Russia escalates attacks, feeling emboldened.
• Trump publicly blames Biden for the war, never Putin.
• Harding suggests the recent US diplomatic mission to Moscow signals an interest in lucrative US-Russia business deals post-war, rather than genuine peacemaking:
  • "We're talking as if this is geopolitics… but essentially for Trump, this is business." (Luke Harding, [09:52])
• Delegates are business associates, not diplomats.

7. Impact of War and Withdrawal of US Support

[10:17–11:19]

• Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities and civilians have increased since Trump’s return to office.
• Life in Kyiv is described as “dark roulette”:
  • "It's chaotic, it's random, it's blocks of flats... people out walking their dog who are dying in a major European city in 2025. It's not normal, and I think we shouldn't treat it as normal." (Luke Harding, [10:57])

8. Fundamental Disconnects: US, Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

[11:19–12:30]

• Harding argues there’s a deep, unbridgeable gap between Europe/Ukraine’s view (“stop Russia or face wider war”) and Trump’s view (“Putin is sincere, wants peace”).
  • "It's almost as if we're dealing with two different realities here." (Luke Harding, [11:33])
  • One reality is empirical, the other delusional and shaped by Russian propaganda and Trump’s political ambitions.

---

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the failed peace process:
  • "This is not actually a peace process because the Russians are not serious. They want to continue the war and they think they are winning." — Luke Harding ([01:12])
• On Putin’s attitude towards Ukraine:
  • "He does not think that Ukraine is a country or a nation or a people." — Luke Harding ([03:34])
• On Trump's approach:
  • "We're talking as if this is geopolitics… but essentially, for Trump, this is business." — Luke Harding ([09:52])
• On the bleakness in Kyiv:
  • "It's chaotic, it's random, it's blocks of flats... people out walking their dog who are dying in a major European city in 2025. It's not normal, and I think we shouldn't treat it as normal." — Luke Harding ([10:57])
• On reality disconnect:
  • "It's almost as if we're dealing with two different realities here." — Luke Harding ([11:33])

---

Important Timestamps

• [00:53] — Setting the stage: Peace talks stall, Putin threatens Europe
• [02:00] — Current life under fire in Kyiv
• [04:36] — Putin’s speech: Europe warned, intent to divide the West
• [06:11] — Europe tries to unlock frozen Russian assets for Ukraine
• [07:25] — Zelenskyy refuses compromise, direct insight from his staff
• [09:08] — US support withdrawn; business-first diplomacy overtakes military aid
• [10:29] — Life in Kyiv: “someone is killed every night”
• [11:33] — Two incompatible worldviews: West vs. Trump/Russia

---

Tone & Style

The conversation is sobering, urgent, and analytical—with Harding’s reporting offering both visceral details from Ukraine and sharp geopolitical insights. The hosts openly express skepticism at the negotiation process and concern about shifting US priorities.

---

Conclusion

This short, impactful episode unpacks the complexity and dangers of the ongoing war in Ukraine—now increasingly shaped by shifting US politics, a divided West, and Putin’s aggressive brinkmanship. Europe’s role is growing, but the prospects for peace appear more distant than ever, with the risk of escalation looming large. The episode ends with a clear message: the situation is not normal, and the world should not forget that.

Transcript

[Lucy Hoff]

This is the Guardian.

[Stamps.com Advertiser]

Shipping, billing, admin, payroll, marketing. You're managing all the things, so why waste time sending important documents the old fashioned way? Mail and ship when you want, how you want with stamps.com print postage on demand 24, 7 and schedule pickups from your office or home. Save up to 90% with automated rate shopping. That's why over 1 million small businesses trust stamps.com go to stamps.com and use code podcast to try stamps.com risk free for 60 days.

[Luke Harding]

Our people are over in Russia right now to see if we can get it settled. Not an easy situation, let me tell you. What a mess.

[Lucy Hoff]

So called peace talks between the US And Russia over Ukraine's future have stalled and pressure is mounting. Vladimir Putin has now taken swipes at Europe saying he's ready for war. NATO says it's ready to do whatever it takes to protect itself.

[Luke Harding]

Putin believes he can outlast us, but we are not going anywhere. To my mind, Trump supports Putin and either wants Russia to win or is entirely indifferent to what happens to Ukraine or both. This is not actually a peace process because the Russians are not serious. They want to continue the war and they think they are winning.

[Lucy Hoff]

From the Guardians today. In Focus this is the latest. With me, Lucy Hoff. I'm joined by Luke Harding, foreign correspondent for the Guardian. Well, Luke, there is so much diplomacy going on on multiple fronts, isn't there? But you've just got back from Ukraine and I just want to start with how is this process being perceived on the ground there? How different is it to the reality of Ukraine, what Ukrainians are living through?

[Luke Harding]

Well, I've just been in Kyiv and there is enormous skepticism in Ukraine, Lucy, that this peace process actually is a peace process. It certainly doesn't feel like one. On the ground. There are missile attacks most nights. You hear explosions at 1, 2 in the morning, the rattle of machine gun fire of Ukrainian air defence. Then just when you're going back to sleep, then, ballistic missiles. They normally come about 5 or 6am over a thousand kilometer front with the Russians grinding slowly forward in the east of the country, but no conclusive victory from the Russian side. And meanwhile, of course, as you say, we've seen these negotiations between the Ukrainians and the Americans, the Americans and the Russians, most recently in Moscow with Steve Wyckoff, Trump's special envoy, and Jared Kushner, his son in law, talking with Putin. But really what I would like to tell you is that this is not actually a peace process because the Russians are not serious. They want to continue the war and they think they are winning.

[Lucy Hoff]

So let's talk about the meeting that happened with Steve Wyckoff, Trump's son in law, Jared Kushner, and Putin last night. So Kushner and Wyckoff flew into Moscow. They were kept waiting for several hours by Putin, as is his way when he's speaking to foreign dignitaries. But the meeting took place three hours late. They were then in there for about five hours. It sounds like quite limited progress was made. But as you say, this isn't really about a good faith negotiation at all, is it?

[Luke Harding]

I mean, there is no progress because there can be no progress. I mean, essentially Russian demands, Putin's demands are what they were back in 2022. And that in essence is for Ukraine's capitulation, for the removal of its pro Western government, the extinction of its hopes to join NATO and the European Union. What Putin wants to do is conquer Ukraine and fold it back into a kind of great Russian empire. That's been his aim throughout. He does not think that Ukraine is a country or a nation or a people. And we know that from what's happened to areas that he's already occupied about 20% of the country which have been forcibly Russified. And really, I think his strategy is to try and get what he can't get on the battlefield from the White House, from Donald Trump, who, let's face it, is the most pro Russian president we have seen in history, who has endless patience for Putin, finds Zelenskyy exasperating. You remember what happened in February in the Oval Office when Zelenskyy was kicked out. And it's a sort of faux process. To my mind, it's not real at all.

[Lucy Hoff]

And in the hours leading up to that meeting, Putin was on Russian TV wearing sort of deliberate military attire. He gave a speech where he said that whilst Russia didn't want a war with Europe, it was ready to go to war with Europe if it needed to. What's he signaling there? What's that statement about as he prepared to meet with US delegation?

[Luke Harding]

Well, I mean, Lucy, that statement is one about the idea of Russia as the eternal victim, which is a trope of Kremlin state propaganda and television, that basically nothing is ever Russia's fault. Russia is never the author of anything. And Putin's message is basically to the White House that there could be a deal were it not for the sub and corrupt Ukrainians and the pesky Europeans who are the impediment. And there's a play, what you might call a sort of KGB play at work here, which is to divide America from its traditional European and NATO allies to exploit Ukraine's weakness. Bear in mind that Zelenskyy's been dealing with a massive corruption scandal in the last couple of weeks. And also to stop America from doing punitive stuff. I mean, there's been a lot of talk about sanctions, particularly secondary sanctions on China and India that import huge amounts of Russian oil. Now, these haven't happened and they've sort of got lost really in the noise of negotiation, which is exactly what Putin wants.

[Lucy Hoff]

So, Luke, you've mentioned this sort of pesky Europe, slightly patronizing tone from Putin towards Europe, but meanwhile, they are desperately trying to get themselves a seat at the table in this process. And we've had a meeting of foreign ministers in Brussels today, haven't we, NATO? What's been going on there? What's on the table?

[Luke Harding]

Well, the big discussion has been about Russian frozen assets. We're talking about $210 billion.

[Lucy Hoff]

Yeah.

[Luke Harding]

No small sum which has been immobilized since the beginning of the full scale invasion in 2022. And really what the commission, what Ursula von der Leyen wants to do and most other European governments is give this money to Ukraine. And she was Talking today about $90 billion for Ukraine, two thirds of what Ukraine needs over the next couple of years. There are two problems. One is the Belgians, who are holding this money in a series of clearing accounts, who are worried about legal liability should the Russians sue. And the other, of course, is Donald Trump, who from kind of his leaked peace plan, which actually in fact was a Russian peace plan with 28 points, which we saw a couple of weeks ago. The plan with Russia was for the Americans to take this money or some of it, and to invest it. In other words, Putin and Trump want to put their little mitts on this money together. So we're not there until we're there. But I think the Ukrainians will be heartened. There is some progress, at least on the financial side.

[Lucy Hoff]

You mentioned that there'd been talks over the weekend with American officials in Ukraine. How did those talks go?

[Luke Harding]

Yeah, I mean, you have to feel for Zelenskyy. I mean, I sat down with him for the Guardian a couple of weeks ago in the presidential administration, and the lights sort of failed halfway through our interview. But one of the questions I asked him was, how do you deal with Trump? Are you afraid of Donald Trump? And it was a very interesting reply. He said, I'm not afraid of Donald Trump. It's clear that Zelenskyy will not Compromise on basic constitutional red lines, such as giving more territory to Russia, which was in the original Trump peace plan, or having its alliance choices curtailed so it can't join NATO, or shrinking the size of its army, which is another Russian demand. So, I mean, Zelenskyy knows that he can't sign a bad peace deal, that were he to do so, thousands of people who've lost so much, loved ones, friends, Holmes would demonstrate against him. And at the same time, he has to try and humor Donald Trump, praise Donald Trump and work from the premise that Donald Trump is a neutral arbiter in all this. Whereas in reality, to my mind, Trump supports Putin and either wants Russia to win or is entirely indifferent to what happens to Ukraine, or both.

[Lucy Hoff]

Yeah. And I suppose it's that indifference that's the most concerning to Zelenskyy, isn't it? That Trump will lose focus, that he's been frustrated, that he hasn't managed to find a kind of quick fix as he felt he was able to do with the Gaza ceasefire. There are suggestions that that's what Putin is hoping for, right? This kind of win win of either he gets this plan that is so clearly a kind of wish list for Russia, or the war continues indefinitely. That's sort of where Zelenskyy's at, isn't he?

[Luke Harding]

I mean, American direct military assistance to Ukraine has stopped that. That was a feature for three years of the Biden administration, regular deliveries of weapons. Putin could end the war tomorrow. I mean, he could simply withdraw or stop. And similarly, Trump could heap pressure on the Russians. He could do massive sanctions, which he hasn't done. He could flood Ukraine with weapons. He could talk about skyshiilds or air defenses or Tomahawk missiles, long range American missiles that the Ukrainians very badly want. There was some very interesting reporting from the Wall Street Journal over the weekend. Really what this seems to be about is a much bigger comprehensive reset between America and Russia where there are lucrative business opportunities, not just in the post war Ukraine, but in the Arctic. Minerals, American oil majors returning to Russia and so on. And I think we know that because of the choice of the delegation in Moscow. Steve Witkoff, a real estate guy, not a diplomat, and Jared Kushner, also a businessperson and Trump's son in law. We're talking as if this is geopolitics, it seems to me. Of course it is geopolitics, but essentially for Trump, this is business.

[Lucy Hoff]

Yeah. And so let's just go back to your experience reporting from Ukraine recently, Luke. I mean, talk to me about the impact on the ground of that withdrawal of American support in terms of the war effort.

[Luke Harding]

The gruesome fact is that since Trump returned to the White House in January, the number of Russian attacks on all of Ukraine's major towns and cities have increased. And I think the Russians do this because they feel impunity. They calculate there'll be no meaningful response from the Americans. And what's interesting is that Trump has been blaming Joe Biden for the war. He never blames Putin for the war, the guy who actually did the invading. And just one other thing, Lucy. I mean, being in Kyiv, it's like this kind of dark roulette. Basically, someone is killed every night. It's chaotic, it's random, it's blocks of flats. It's teenagers watching TV or old couples or people out walking their dog who are dying in a major European city in 2025. It's not normal, and I think we shouldn't treat it as normal.

[Lucy Hoff]

Yeah. And just moving forward, is there any realistic overlap between what Russia and the US Were talking yesterday in this meeting and what Europe and the Ukrainians are looking for?

[Luke Harding]

I mean, that's such an interesting question. I'm not a philosopher, but if you want to get epistemological for a moment, it's almost as if we're dealing with two different realities here. I mean, there's the actual reality where the Europeans and the Ukrainians agree that if Russia is not stopped in Ukraine, it will keep going and probably invade somewhere else. And the American view, which is that, or the Trump view, that is that Putin is sincere and genuinely wants peace and is a nice guy, as Steve Wyckoff said. Now, these views are fundamentally incompatible. One is based on delusion and you might say, wish fulfillment, maybe a desire on Trump's side from the Nobel Peace Prize, also mediated by Russian disinformation and propaganda, which floods American social media networks and has been embraced by a lot of people in the Republican Party and actually kind of the empirical truth, which is that this is a war of conquest. And if Putin isn't stopped, he will keep going.

[Lucy Hoff]

Well, Luke, thank you so much for your time.

[Luke Harding]

Thank you. Thanks. Great to talk to you, Lucy.

[Lucy Hoff]

That's it for today. Thanks for listening to the latest, the new evening edition of Today in Focus. We'll be dropping into your feeds every weekday evening with what you need to know about the story everyone's talking about in around 10 minutes. And please do give us a watch over on YouTube today in Focus. We'll be back with you as normal tomorrow morning and we'll see you tomorrow night.

[Luke Harding]

This is the Guardian.

[Stamps.com Advertiser]

Shipping, Billing, admin, Payroll, marketing. You're managing all the things, so why waste time sending important documents the old fashioned way? Mail and ship when you want, how you want with stamps.com print postage on demand 247 and schedule pickups from your office or home. Save up to 90% with automated rate shopping. That's why over 1 million small businesses trust stamps.com go to stamps.com and use code podcast to try stamps.com risk free for 60 days.