Lucy Hoff (3:33)

Yeah.

Archie Bland (3:34)

So that's really important because it suggests that Robbins was perhaps taking a view government's right to see this material, even through the mechanism of the isc, the Security Committee that is tasked with reviewing the most sensitive stuff, was at least in question. And that is something that puts a lot of pressure on him, even as he had previously put pressure on Keir Starmer. So it has been a really difficult week for everybody involved, but by the end of it, it does feel like if Summer had hoped that all of this evidence would put him in a stronger position, it still feels like a war between mandarins, but one that will ultimately rebound on him.

Lucy Hoff (4:15)

Yeah. And we've also had Sir Richard Dearlove, the former head of the British Intelligence Service, writing for the Guardian, criticizing the decision of the Foreign Office not to reveal these vetting documents, but also criticizing Keir Starmer's political judgment. And the two things are interlinked as per his opinion.

Archie Bland (4:35)

Yeah. What Richard Dearlove has to say is really significant. He's a former head of MI6 and he is voicing something that I think is. Is important to hear in this conversation, because whereas Ollie Robbins and quite a lot of the civil servants who have supported him have sought to cast it as entirely ordinary or at least understandable for the Foreign Office to override the decision of this group called UK Security Vetting. DLove makes the point that that while Robbins has sought to present this as a borderline decision, that isn't what UK security vetting came back with. In fact, they came back with quite a clear verdict, and it is entirely in Robbins gift to override that. But it is also very unusual to do so. And claiming that it is borderline should not dilute what we know from the evidence, which is that they did in fact reach this clear conclusion. And you know what Dearlove said is that you might say it's borderline. You might say that the decision was difficult to take, but once that decision is taken, in his words, there are no gray areas, there are no soft edges. And if somebody is denied developed vetting, then they shouldn't have access to the kinds of material that it provides. So that is a really significant intervention in all of this, I think, and one that creates really difficult questions for Ollie Robbins over why he made that call in this case.

Lucy Hoff (5:54)

Yeah, absolutely. And it is not over yet. We're set for another bumper week of select Committee. We've got Morgan McSweeney, Keir Sama's former chief of staff, who will be appearing before MPs in that committee on Tuesday. McSweeney being someone who was known to have a relationship with Lord Mandelson, who was influential in the decision to appoint him as U.S. ambassador, and who has reportedly had his phone stolen at a time when there are real questions around that time of the appointment. So it will be fascinating to hear from him, and unfortunately for Starmer and his government, will. Will thrust this right to the top of the news agenda yet again.

Archie Bland (6:35)

Yeah, and Tuesday is certainly going to be a box office moment for those without a dog in this fight, to mix my metaphors. I mean, it is going to be a really interesting day to see Morgan McSweeney giving evidence because he is one of the central figures in all of this. And one of the questions has been whether he is the person who applied the pressure that Robbins said was felt in the Foreign Office over Mandelson's appointment. He has said yesterday that he doesn't recognize description. MPs will certainly want to ask him about it. But perhaps more significant in the long run, and more telling, is evidence the same day from Philip Barton, who is Ollie Robbins predecessor at the Foreign Office. That's so important because actually, Robbins was only in place for the last couple of weeks of the process of appointing Peter Mandelson. And when he gave evidence earlier this week, he said that he understood. He, in a very civil service kind of euphemistic way, he said basically what he had understood about Philip Barton's period in charge that had led him to the conclusion that this pressure had been applied. Keir Starmer has denied any pressure was applied in the Foreign Office to get this through. If Philip Barton contradicts that, that creates a situation where there was either some astonishing miscommunication or one or other of them is misleading the public. And obviously, if Keir Starmer is deemed to have misled the public, his position, again, looks very difficult.

Lucy Hoff (8:02)

There are now 13 days before these very important May 7th local elections. I think there was a sense in the last few weeks that Keir Starmer's position was bolstered by his strong response to the Iran war, his strong response to pressure from Donald Trump in the White House, and that people were sort of prepared to rally around him even if the results of those elections were catastrophic, as they are predicted to be for Labor. But, I mean, this last week has been hugely damaging for him. Where do you think things stand now?

Archie Bland (8:35)

So, yeah, I think there has been a feeling that, and this is what counts for good news in Downing street recently, that things have been flatlining rather than cratering because there's a war. Yeah, you know, hooray. But because of the war in Iran and because of the position that Starmer staked out and how that has contrasted quite helpfully with the positions set out by Reform and the Conservatives, and because of a sense also that changing leaders in the middle of an international crisis is not something that the public are particularly keen for you to do. That has all felt quite helpful for him. The Mandelson stuff, it's the story that doesn't go away, and this iteration of it is arguably the most difficult for the Prime Minister. If the question is whether Keir Starmer will face a challenge after those local elections, I do think that remains a real possibility. You know, there are some arguments and you can see a very strong case, and we hear this from Labour MPs, that even though they think that his position is probably ultimately terminal, they would prefer to do it later in the year, partly because that would mean that Andy Burnham might be an MP again, and he is seen by a lot of people as the one who could lead them to a better position. But what I think you can't really legislate for at this point is just what the mood is going to be on the Friday morning after those local elections. If it is starting to become clear that Labour has taken a real drubbing across England and in Scotland and in Wales, then you're going to start to hear some voices whose frankly, emotional position might get a little bit ahead of their analysis of where they want, ideally, to be. Starmer is sort of helped by the fact that there isn't an outstanding candidate to replace him in Parliament right now, that Angela Rayner and Wes Streeting and Shabana Mahmood all have their own problems. But it's also possible that MPs will conclude anything has got to be a Bit better than this.

Lucy Hoff (10:23)

Yeah. So it sounds like, from what you're saying, that it's a question of when, not if. And there's been some fascinating reporting from our colleagues in the lobby, Jessica Elgot and Kieran Stacey, about MPs sort of effectively making a pact that they'll stand by Starmer until Burnham is in a position where he's able to take over. And that would obviously involve him becoming an mp, not mayor of Manchester. We should also say that a few days after the May 7th elections, there's due to be the second batch of Mandelson documents. So, you know, the storm is not going anywhere, is it?

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Archie Bland (10:58)

And meanwhile, you have the endlessly vexed relationship with Donald Trump, although I don't know that that necessarily rebounds badly on Keir Starmer as far as the public are concerned. But just the general fact that Labour's polls are not going in a good direction, and that seems very difficult to change. There is beginning to be a situation where there is a kind of a deadline on changing things, so that whoever's in charge has the time and the space to try to put together a policy programme that will have shown evidence of success before the next and give Labour a fighting chance of doing as well as they possibly can. And I think you would find very, very few Labour MPs who would say privately that they expected Keir Starmer to be the Prime Minister by the next election. But it really is all to play for exactly when that happens. And as I say, I think it's probably a question of whether they're able to bite their lips after the local elections and indeed whether any of this Mandelson stuff and whether the evidence that we hear from Philip Barton and Morgan McSweeney next week makes that position look unsustainable, because that is the wild card in all of this. There is still more to come out and that will be a key factor in determining Keir Starmer's future.

Lucy Hoff (12:09)

Gosh, tense times. Thank you so much for your time, Archie.

Archie Bland (12:13)

Thank you very much.

Lucy Hoff (12:15)

That's it for today. My huge thanks again to Archie Bland, the Guardian's head of national news. You can keep up with all our reporting over@theguardian.com and I do recommend today's episode of Politics Weekly America. Jonathan Friedland will be exploring why Donald Trump is more ruthless in his second term and whether the FBI's cash Patel could be next. Thanks for listening to this episode of the latest Today in Focus. We back in your feeds on Monday morning. The latest will be back on Monday night. This episode was presented by me, Lucy Hoff. It was produced by Bryony Moore. The senior producer was Ryan Mangoban and the lead producer was Zoe Hitchcock. This is the Guardian.

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