Is the UK spending enough on defence? – The Latest

Summary

Podcast Summary: Today in Focus – "Is the new defence plan enough to keep us safe? – The Latest"

Episode Overview
Date: June 30, 2026
Host: Lucy Half (The Guardian)
Guest: Kieran Stacey, Policy Editor
Theme:
This episode breaks down the UK’s newly announced defence investment plan by Prime Minister Keir Starmer, exploring its substance, controversies, and whether the increased spending truly meets the nation’s security and strategic needs. Special attention is paid to the impact of AI, drone warfare, government infighting over budgets, and the potential implications for Starmer’s legacy and his successor Andy Burnham.

---

Main Discussion Points and Insights

1. Context and Significance of the Defence Plan

• The defence plan was promised almost a year ago to implement 2025’s Strategic Defence Review goals—supporting Ukraine, securing peace in the Gulf, and modernizing military capabilities.
• The final package amounts to £15bn, below the £28bn requested by the Ministry of Defence.
• Notably, £5bn is earmarked for drone technology, highlighting its centrality in modern warfare.
  • “If there’s one thing we’ve learned from Ukraine, it’s that drones will be absolutely at the centre of whatever war we next find ourselves in.” – Kieran Stacey [02:50]

2. Budget Details and Political Fallout

• Some of the funding is reallocated from other government departments and by delaying repairs in military housing—a contentious choice, since former Defence Secretary John Healey prioritized these repairs.
  • “Unfortunately from Healey’s point of view, a lot of that has actually been taken by pushing back planned repairs to housing for people serving in the armed forces.” – Kieran Stacey [04:35]
• The increase brings UK defence spending to approximately 2.6–2.7% of GDP, not the 3% often cited by politicians.
  • “It’s going to bring our defence spending up to more like 2.6, 2.7%, with an ambition to get it to 3% in the next Parliament.” – Kieran Stacey [03:26]

3. Internal Government Conflict

• The plan’s creation caused major rifts between John Healey (Defence Secretary) and Rachel Reeves (Chancellor), to the extent that they stopped communicating directly.
  • “Really…what we had is a standoff between John Healey…and Rachel Reeves…they didn’t seem to be speaking towards the end of Healey’s time in office. And I was told yesterday that actually Healey had decided not to negotiate directly with the Treasury at all and do everything via Keir Starmer in Number 10.” – Kieran Stacey [06:51]
• Lucy Half notes the contradiction between taking money from infrastructure and Defence spending priorities, highlighting likely domestic political pushback as well. [06:13]

4. NATO and International Perception

• Starmer’s intention was to enter the upcoming NATO summit with a strong defence spending message, but the plan is seen as underwhelming compared to UK promises and NATO peers.
  • “What he’s ended up with is this really bruising government row…and a lot of headlines based on comments from…military personnel: this just isn’t enough.” – Kieran Stacey [05:34]

5. Implications for Andy Burnham's Succession

• Starmer claims the plan will be inherited by his likely successor, but it’s unclear if Burnham had any input or would pursue further changes, especially new borrowing strategies for defence.
• Starmer publicly rejected funding defence through borrowing or “defence bonds”—a position seen as preempting Burnham’s potential plans and intraparty demands.
  • “Today Keir Starmer made it very clear that he now backed that Treasury position. He didn’t think it was a good idea to borrow extra for defence, even if you create a new type of bond to do so. And that’s a real challenge to Andy Burnham.” – Kieran Stacey [08:44]

6. Expert Assessment: Is it Enough?

• Defence experts, and the Ministry itself, argue the plan is significant but still falls far short (“not enough”), highlighting a gap of over £13bn from initial MOD asks.
  • “Defence sources say it’s not enough. And we know that the Ministry of Defence actually asked for 28 billion pounds extra spending. They’ve ended up with 15 billion, some of which is recycled…” – Kieran Stacey [10:23]
• Treasury counters that repeated demands indicate previous plans were underfunded or mismanaged; they prefer slow, incremental funding increases with tighter project oversight.

---

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On drones and warfare’s transformation:
  “It’s about drone warfare…and if there’s one thing we’ve learned from Ukraine, it’s that drones will be absolutely at the centre of whatever war we next find ourselves in.” – Kieran Stacey [02:50]
• On deep cabinet rifts:
  “Essentially, what we had is a standoff between John Healey, the Defence Secretary, and Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor, to the extent that they didn’t seem to be speaking…” – Kieran Stacey [06:51]
• On the optics before NATO:
  “The Prime Minister was hoping to go to that NATO summit with a few good headlines about defence spending…what he’s ended up with is this really bruising government row.” – Kieran Stacey [05:34]
• On the borrowing debate:
  “Keir Starmer made it very clear…he didn’t think it was a good idea to borrow extra for defence, even if you create a new type of bond to do so. That’s a real challenge to Andy Burnham.” – Kieran Stacey [08:44]

---

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:45 – Introduction to the new defence plan; core areas of investment (AI, drones).
• 02:00 – Rationale and strategic goals of the plan.
• 03:00 – Drone warfare and the lessons from Ukraine.
• 03:26 – Breakdown of the spending and GDP percentage issues.
• 04:31 – Impact of internal cabinet disputes; sources of defence funding.
• 05:34 – UK’s position within NATO and international implications.
• 06:49 – Details on government infighting and the politics of funding allocation.
• 08:22 – The Andy Burnham question: succession, potential changes, and borrowing debate.
• 10:23 – Defence expert analysis: is the plan really enough for current threats?

---

Tone and Takeaways

• The episode is brisk and focused, reflecting the “news catch-up” mission of The Latest, with Lucy Half guiding the discussion while Kieran Stacey delivers detailed analysis with occasional wry humor.
• The tone is critical but nuanced, acknowledging both strategic advances (like the focus on drones) and the very real shortfalls and political complications built into the new plan.
• The overall verdict: despite slightly increased funding and sharper focus on emerging technology, the plan appears “not enough” both by MOD standards and those of military analysts. It sets the stage for further debate and deeper scrutiny, especially if Andy Burnham takes office soon.

---

For more on this story, follow Kieran Stacey's reporting at theguardian.com.

Transcript

[Lucy Half]

This is the Guardian.

[Podcast Narrator]

A History of the United States in 100 Objects is a brand new podcast from 99% Invisible and BBC Studios. Each week we're looking at a different object from across American history with a unique story to tell about who we've been, what we've built and what we've allowed ourselves to forget. Some of these objects are well known, many are not. But all of them carry the story of how we got to this moment. Find a history of the United States and 100 objects on the 99% invisible feed. Wherever you get your podcasts,

[Kieran Stacey]

There is more money going into AI. There is more money going into drones. Military experts would say that's not enough, but then they always do.

[Max Rushton]

When the world is arming and aggression is rising, the best way to avoid

[Kieran Stacey]

war is to prepare for it. Defence sources say it's not enough. And we know that the Ministry of Defence actually asked for 28 billion pounds extra spending. They've ended up with 15 billion. This falls quite far short of what

[Lucy Half]

was asked for from the Guardians today. In Focus, this is the latest. With me, Lucy Half. Keir Starmer has announced his long awaited defence investment plan for the uk. It was due to be published in the autumn, but was pushed back several months. Kieran Stacey, you're our policy editor. It does look for anyone who's not watching this on YouTube like you're about to head off to war yourself. You're reporting from a drone making facility in Maidenhead. Kieran, what was the substance of the speech that we heard today?

[Kieran Stacey]

Yeah, I should apologize to viewers and listeners. By the way, Lucy, the drone making facility you mentioned is by the side of an airfield, so we will have airplanes taking off, landing, flying overhead, but, you know, it all adds to the atmosphere.

[Lucy Half]

Well, please don't get on one, Kieran, in the course of recording this podcast,

[Kieran Stacey]

I promise I will stay grounded myself. Yeah, but yet the detail of this, you say it was delayed by several months, delayed by nearly a year. This defense investment plan and the whole point of it was supposed to be fleshing out how exactly we're going to meet the objectives set out last year by the government in the Strategic Defense Review. So the government wants to do a bunch of things, including contributing to Ukraine's safety in the long term, including helping secure the peace if and when it is achieved in the Gulf. This was details about how it's going to pay. The way to do that, it was overall a 15 billion pound package. Some of that was paid for by taking money off other departments. Some of it was paid for by reallocating spending within the MOD. £5 billion is going towards drones, and that's why we're here today. That's why aviation is so important. It's right at the heart of this defense investment plan. Because if there's one thing we've learned from Ukraine, it's that drones will be absolutely at the center of whatever war we find, we next find ourselves in.

[Lucy Half]

Yeah, that's the message that we've heard from the Prime Minister and also the new Defense Secretary, Dan Jarvis, isn't it? That looking at Ukraine shows us that war is no longer the tanks, the planes of yesteryear. It's about drone warfare and, as you say, a significant portion of that 15 billion overall spending going on drones. It brings our defense spending up to 3% of GDP. Is that right?

[Kieran Stacey]

No, not quite. Actually, it's going to bring our defence spending up to more like 2.6, 2.7%, with an ambition to get it to 3% in the next Parliament. But this has kind of been the crux of the entire internal government row we've had over the last few months. Could we get it to that 3% in this plan? And in the end, the government has fallen short of that. So that's actually quite an important distinction. Politicians will tell you, are we going to spend 3% on defense in the next Parliament? But they haven't yet said how.

[Lucy Half]

Yeah. And it was, of course, one of the reasons why the former Defence Secretary, John Healy, resigned in a very scathing letter to the Prime Minister, in which he said that the government at its current level of defence spending was putting the country at risk. Keir Starmer has warned himself that he thinks, or the assessments would say, that Russia could invade or attack NATO as early as 2030. Do you think what was announced today has sort of materially moved this investment plan on from what John Healey was so critical of?

[Kieran Stacey]

It's not a huge change from what John Healey was negotiating. What we know is that there is an extra £1.5 billion going into this defence investment plan, above and beyond what Healey managed to secure, perhaps. Unfortunately, from Healey's point of view, a lot of that has actually been taken by pushing back planned repairs to housing for people serving in the armed forces. That was something that Healy was really, really keen on as Defence Secretary. And that money has essentially been raided to help pay for a bit of extra spending now on drones in particular. So, as always with these things, there are payoffs. Yes, there is a bit more money in this plan, but it has come from somewhere.

[Lucy Half]

And Keir Starmer is heading off to a NATO summit next week, which will be one of his likely last appearances on the foreign stage as Prime Minister. He's very keen to cement his legacy, in particular on defence, isn't he? Which is why he's made this major speech today. But as he goes to that NATO summit, I mean, even with this increase, we are still at the bottom of the pile in terms of other NATO countries and what they spend on defence, aren't we?

[Kieran Stacey]

Yes. I think the Prime Minister was hoping to go to that NATO summit with a few good headlines about defence spending, so that he could meet Donald Trump and other NATO leaders and say, look at what we're doing, we're meeting our pledges. However, what he's ended up with is this really bruising government round that you mentioned, Lucy, and a lot of headlines based on comments from existing and previous military personnel. This just isn't enough. So, to a certain extent, it's a little bit of an awkward position for Keir Starmer to go into that summit with. Let's see if Donald Trump decides to pick up on that or if other leaders decide to pick up on that and really embarrass him on the world stage.

[Lucy Half]

So it could be difficult internationally at NATO, but also domestically, because some of this funding, we understand from the speech is going to be coming from capital projects like roads and energy. I mean, this stands in quite stark contrast from what we were hearing from Andy Burnham yesterday about improving lives in every postcodes and that being about infrastructure, things like this. So he's likely to face some pushback from people within his own party as well. It does sound like there's been quite the battle with the treasury to find the money to increase defence spending in this way.

[Kieran Stacey]

Yeah, there really has. I mean, I have been tracking this now for several months, and I have to say the internal government rows that this particular plan has caused are some of the worst I have seen of the Keir Starmer government. Really, Essentially, what we had is a standoff between John Healey, the Defence Secretary, and Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor, to the extent that they didn't seem to be speaking towards the end of Healey's time in office. And I was told yesterday that actually Healey had decided not to negotiate directly with the treasury at all and do everything via Keir starmer in number 10. I'm also told that Keir Starmer grew increasingly frustrated at Rachel Reeves herself, blaming her for her intransigence for not finding the extra Money that he believed was needed and that John Healey believed was needed. I should say it was all smiles today as we were here in Maidenhead and Keir Starmer actually gave some very warm, very heartfelt comments about Rachel Reeves that almost seemed like he was trying to pitch her as Chancellor in a future Andy Burnham government. But this has caused deep, deep divisions within the Labour government.

[Lucy Half]

And on the subject of Andy Burnham, Andy Burnham is someone who hasn't spoken much about foreign policy in his long political career, certainly more recently. It was something that he was very keen not to speak about. Whilst on the campaign trail in Makerfield, Keir Starmer said that this is a defence investment plan that his successor will take on. But what do we know about that? Do we know that Andy Burnham has seen this, signed it off himself? Is he likely to perhaps make any changes?

[Kieran Stacey]

Really good question. And we asked that question to the Prime Minister in the Q and A afterwards and he didn't really answer it. Did Andy Burnham get a sight of this before it was published? As far as we can tell, he didn't. We are told by allies of Burnham that he is happy, you know, to take this as his settlement. He probably would like, for publicity reasons, apart from anything else, to be able to announce a bit of extra money when he comes in. But there was one, I thought, really significant moment in today's press conference. The Prime Minister started talking at length about why it is not a good idea to borrow to pay for more defense spending. And specifically he mentioned the idea of defense bonds. Now, the reason he did this is because this is an idea, not that's coming from some opposition party, but from within his own government. In fact, I'm told that very senior people at number 10 had nearly signed off on the idea of creating special defense bonds to pay for higher military spending. But in the end, it ended up getting blocked by the treasury, which didn't like the idea of extra borrowing. Full stop. Today, Keir Starmer made it very clear that he now backed that treasury position. He didn't think it was a good idea to borrow extra for defence, even if you create a new type of bond to do so. And that's a real challenge to Andy Burnham. Now, Keir Starmer has very publicly said this would be new borrowing. This is not a good idea. Does Andy Burnham decide to pick up an idea that Keir Starmer's own advisors were urging him to pursue just a few months ago, in fact, just a few weeks ago? Or does he listen to what the Prime Minister's just said publicly and find another way of getting extra money, if he does at all, for defence.

[Lucy Half]

Yeah, well, it sounds like there's going to be a lot of scrutiny for Andy Burnham over that in the, in the weeks to come, given that he could be Prime Minister in as soon as in three weeks time. Given that you've been covering this for such a long time, Kieran, I mean, what are you hearing from defence experts about to the extent to which this investment plan bolsters the UK's defences in the longer term, given how fast technology is moving, both in terms of artificial intelligence but also drone warfare, just in

[Kieran Stacey]

the terms of the sheer amount, Defence sources say it's not enough. And we know that the Ministry of Defence actually asked for 28 billion pounds extra spending. They've ended up with 15 billion, some of which is recycled from within the MOD's budget. So this falls quite far short of what was asked for by military chiefs a few months ago. Having said that, the treasury counters that. Wait a second, we did a defence review last year. You told us that was fully funded and now you've come back to ask us for tens of billions of extra spending. We can't simply carry on like that. And so you've ended up in this position where neither side probably is particularly happy. There is more money going into AI, there is more money going into drones. Military experts would say that's not enough, but then they always do. And treasury types will tell you that the MID has a record of mismanaging major projects. And so if anything, maybe a slightly more incremental approach where you raise defence spending a bit more slowly and track the projects a bit more carefully as they go through the system. They think that would work better, particularly

[Lucy Half]

in the rapidly changing world we're living in. Kieran, thank you so much for your time.

[Kieran Stacey]

Thanks for having me.

[Lucy Half]

That's it for today. My huge thanks again to our policy editor and host of Politics Weekly, Kieran Stacey. Keep up with his reporting [e-mail] and I really recommend this morning's episode of Today in Focus, which is looking at why youth unemployment in is spiraling and the damage it could do to their long term prospects and the country. Thanks for listening to this episode of the latest Today in Focus. We'll be back in your feeds on Monday morning. The latest will be back on Monday night. This episode was produced by Leo Schick. The senior producer was Ryan Ramgoven, the executive producer was Zoe Hitch.

[Max Rushton]

The World cup is back and because we have no off switch, Football Weekly is going daily. If you want a podcast with more footballing heritage than a Brazil number, number 10, more talent than a French starting 11, and more predictable than an England penalty shootout, look no further. We'll have 33 daily episodes covering not just the goals and the glory, but the politics and the problems of this year's tournament. Can England end 60 years of hurt? Join me, Max Rushton, our expert panel, and Barry every day of the tournament World Cup Daily. Listen wherever you get your podcasts or watch the full episodes on YouTube.

[Lucy Half]

This is the Guardian

[Advertisement Voice]

Foreign.

[Podcast Narrator]

If you're looking for something predictable and low friction over the long term, public markets may be a suitable option. But the moment you want different investment characteristics, it may be time to consider the private markets. See how your wealth can work [e-mail]

[Advertisement Voice]

access high interest debt is one of the toughest opponents you'll face unless you power up with a Sofi personal loan. A Sofi personal loan could repackage your bad debt into one low fix right rate monthly payment. It's even got super speed since you could get the funds as soon as the same day you sign. Visit sofi.compower to learn more. That's s-o f I.com P-O-W-E-R loans originated by SoFi Bank NA member FDIC terms and conditions apply. NMLS 696891 A History of the United

[Podcast Narrator]

States in 100 Objects is a brand new podcast from 99% Invisible and BBC Studios. Each week we're looking at a different object from across American history with a unique story to tell about who we've been, what we've built, and what we've allowed ourselves to forget. Some of these objects are well known, many are not, but all of them carry the story of how we got to this moment. Find a History of the United States and 100 objects on the 99% invisible feed. Wherever you get your podcasts.