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Is the tide turning for Ukraine in war with Russia? – The Latest
00:11:39
With the EU approving a €90bn loan for Ukraine, a surprise visit from Prince Harry, and data suggesting Russian troops made almost no territorial gains in March – are there reasons for optimism in Kyiv? Lucy Hough speaks to senior international correspondent Luke Harding
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- [00:00]
A
This is the Guardian.
- [00:11]
B
What you have to understand is that war has changed. I mean, forget that. The Second World War movies you've seen, brave soldiers kind of running across fields and things like that. I mean, the Russians still do that, but with very little success. President Putin, no nation benefits from the continued loss of life we are witnessing. There is still a moment now to stop this war. We go on about talks and resolution and negotiations. It's kind of pseudo diplomacy. The reality is that Putin doesn't want to stop this war.
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The deadlock is over as the European Union finally agrees a 90 billion euro loan to Ukraine and a massive package of sanctions against Russia. As Prince Harry makes a surprise visit to Kyiv. Could this finally be a moment of optimism for Ukraine? From the Guardians today In Focus, this is the latest with me, Lucy Hough. Well, dialing in from Kyiv is our senior international correspondent, Luke Harding. Luke, it's great to see you. Thanks for coming back on the show. So the last time we spoke was in February, which around the time of the fourth anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. And the picture, as per your reporting, was pretty bleak. It was extremely cold and there was a sense that Ukraine wasn't making much progress in this kind of grinding war of attrition. But the picture is now quite different, isn't it? There's been this approval by the European Union of a massive loan to Ukraine, but also Russia's progress on the battlefield seems to have stalled. What's it feeling like from where you are? Right at the heart of things, I
- [01:42]
B
would say actually the mood in Ukraine is definitely more positive, a bit more optimistic than the last time we spoke, Lucy. I mean, for a start, the power is back. You can see the lights behind me in my hotel in Kyiv. So Russia's attempt to basically freeze Ukraine out in the winter failed. And meanwhile, as you say on the battlefield, the Russians have really been making very slow progress, in fact, no progress at all practically in March, with Ukrainian forces even having some kind of tactical success in the south where they've been recapturing a few smashed up villages in the gray zone. And the sort of international picture is complicated, but it's mixed. But there is good news for Ukraine as Well. This loan, 90 billion euros, 2/3 of it for Ukraine's military, a third to pay salaries for the economy, it's been stalled and stalled and stalled, blocked late last year by Viktor Orban and with a huge row between Hungary and Ukraine, which is, I mean, there are still tensions, of course, but there's a new prime minister in the shape of Peter Magya. And it looks like this money is coming soon.
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A
Yes, it's two things that have been agreed, isn't it? It's this 90 billion euro loan, as you say, which will have a very, very material impact on Ukraine's war efforts. But also there's a big package of sanctions against Russia. So the response from Zelenskyy, presumably, is very positive to that, given, as you say, there's been such a standoff and this block by Hungary until Viktor Orban was ousted from power earlier this month.
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B
Yeah, I mean, I think that's right. It was extremely acrimonious. It was really almost kind of open hostility between Hungary and Ukraine, with Orban saying that he would block the loan until oil started flowing through this pipeline. It's called the Druzhba pipeline, Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia. The Ukrainians said that Russia had bombed it. It wasn't possible. Orban said. They were lying. Now it looks like the money will come to Kyiv, and also the oil will flow to Budapest. So this is a breakthrough. I mean, the other kind of quite interesting thing is a change of tone from Zelenskyy, because since Donald Trump came back to the White House last year, he's really done everything he can to try and please Trump to treat him like a reliable partner, an ally of Ukraine. Even though, in my opinion, Trump has swapped sides and supports the Russians. I mean, we can talk about to what degree, but Zelenskyy's rhetoric recently has been kind of much cooler, actually, towards Trump. And I think, really, there's a kind of strategic realization by everybody that the Americans are practically out. I mean, no more American weapons going directly from Washington to Kyiv. And that really supporting Ukraine is. Is Ukraine's problem and Europe's problem, and
- [04:23]
A
this sort of increased sense of European solidarity as it responds to the Iran war. But obviously, as you say, towards Ukraine. And it's very significant that this package has finally been agreed. So in terms of what that looks like on the ground, I mean, I know you're about to head to the front line next week. How will that money be used? Because drones have become very crucial to Ukraine's military efforts. Right.
- [04:49]
B
Lucy, what you have to understand is that war has changed. I mean, forget the Second World War movies you've seen of, you know, brave soldiers kind of running across fields and things like that. I mean, the Russians still do that, but with very little success, because practically they're all killed and injured. And this has become a kind of superlative aerial contest, both sides using Drones, massively a kind of race of technology. And I think one other really interesting development is that my sense is the Ukrainians have got an edge at the moment. And what I mean by that is that they've been really whacking Russian ports, oil infrastructure, terminals. And you know, Russia is a big country and its air defenses are very stretched. And the Ukrainians, using both sort of ballistic missiles and long range drones, are finding a way through. So we've seen burning terminals in the last few weeks. And also I think a strategy of victory, which is that essentially I was talking to someone today who was saying that the goal is to basically cripple Russia's economy so it can no longer finance its war. The analogy is with Germany in the First World War. He was saying, in other words, there were never any kind of allied troops on German territory, but Germany basically collapsed. And what Ukraine is trying to do is to make Russia collapse economically. So it's got no oil, it can no longer fund its war. And that is a path, they think, to victory.
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A
But obviously there is another major conflict going on in Iran that has drawn in much of the Middle East. In some senses, that has meant that Trump is very distracted. But as you say, increasingly Ukraine realizes the US Is no longer an ally that it can rely on. But there have been negative impacts too, in the sense that Russia is, as we've reported, really benefiting from high oil prices, that a lot of that money is being funneled into oil companies, the sort of big three oil giants in Russia. So how is the war in the Middle east sort of playing out both in the positive and the negative in Ukraine?
- [06:49]
B
Well, I mean, I think you're right. I think that the consequences have been mixed, as you say, with oil now up to $100 a barrel and the Trump administration bizarrely lifting its kind of sanctions against Russian seaborne oil, which is already out there, that the Russians are seeing a windfall of many billions of dollars. But on the other hand, as we were just discussing that, their oil export infrastructure is being smashed by Ukrainian drones. So, yes, more money, but they have to export this stuff. And meanwhile, what we've seen is really some incredible diplomacy by Zelenskyy. I mean, he's toured the Gulf states, he's signed long rang and production agreements with Saudi Arabia, with the UAE and with others basically offering to provide them with interceptor drones made by Ukraine which can shoot down Iranian shaheed missiles, the same missiles, by the way, that have been falling on this place on Kyiv really since late 2022. So what's interesting is the kind of paradigm, the idea that at the beginning of the full scale invasion, Ukraine was basically holding out a sort of begging bowl for Western assistance and now is really the only state capable of shooting down shaheds, which are kind of 21st century menace. And I think it's a bit of a supreme geopolitical irony because actually one of the countries that's been asking Ukraine for help is America. And I don't know if you had that on your bingo card, Lucy, when Zelenskyy was dressed down last year in the Oval Office by Trump, who said, you've got no cards, you've got no cards. Turns out Ukraine has got some cards.
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A
It certainly does, Luke. And meanwhile, there are these attempts by Turkey to get Russia and Ukraine talking again around the negotiating table. But it hasn't gone that well thus far, has it? Is there any sense that any progress could be made there whatsoever?
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B
I mean, what is vital to understand is that there is no meaningful process. I think we, you know, the grammar of news, we go on about talks and resolution and negotiations as if there's some sort of teleology that we get to an agreed destination. And the reality is that Putin doesn't want to stop this war. He thinks he can win. He thinks he can win either on the battlefield, but through military might and attrition. Or actually a quicker route goes through the White House and Donald Trump's office, with the Americans browbeating Zelensky, pressuring Kiev to give up territory, in particular the eastern Donbas region, which Russia wants and Trump seems to think that Russia should have. So there is no meaningful diplomatic track at the moment. And what I find quite astonishing is that Trump's two emissaries, his son in law Jared Kushner, and his real estate friend Steve Wyckoff, have made multiple trips to Moscow. They're planning another one and as of yet have not been to Kyiv at all. I mean, it's sort of, it's kind of pseudo diplomacy. It's faux diplomacy. It's the appearance of action without actual action. So I think diplomatically we can expect very little.
- [09:43]
A
And there is a very high profile visit from Prince Harry, who's arrived in Kyiv this morning and will be spending some time in Ukraine to raise awareness at a time when so much of the world is distracted by conflicts in the Middle East. How important and significant is that for Ukrainians to have someone like him raising awareness and trying to get this back into the headlines when it's been so dominated by Iran?
- [10:07]
B
Yeah, I mean, Prince Harry his visit to Kyiv is definitely a morale booster. Last time he came, he brought the Guardian with him. This time he's dropped the Guardian and taken ITN with him. But, but you can see, you know, the video shows people hugging him on arrival at the train station. I think there's kind of genuine affection for him and also actually for, for the uk. It's very strange to live and work in a country where the UK is really popular. I mean, after Brexit, generally, we weren't very popular in many places, but the UK has loved it. It's seen as being a, a really solid ally where support, interestingly, comes from across the political spectrum, which is not the case in the US or much of continental Europe.
- [10:48]
A
Well, Luke, thank you so much for your time and stay safe when you travel to the front line next week.
- [10:53]
B
Thank you.
- [10:54]
A
That's it for today. My huge thanks again to Luke Harding, our senior international correspondent. You can keep up with his reporting from Kyiv as well as our Europe coverage over@theguardian.com and do listen to today's episode of our sister podcast, Politics Weekly. And looking back on a week that has been dominated by the fallout from the Mandelson vetting revelations, thanks for listening to this episode of the latest Today in Focus will be back in your feeds as usual tomorrow morning. The latest will be back tomorrow night. This episode was presented by me, Lucy Hoff. It was produced by Bryony Moore. The senior producer was Ryan Ramgobin. The lead producer was Zoe Hitchcock. This is the Guardian.