J.D. Vance or Associate (1:59)

We have got to get Viktor Orban re elected as Prime Minister of Hungary, don't we?

Helen Pitt (2:08)

Though he insisted he wasn't telling people how to vote in this Sunday's election.

J.D. Vance or Associate (2:12)

I'm not telling you exactly who to vote for, but what I am telling you is that the bureaucrats and Brussels, those people should not be listened to. Listen to your hearts, listen to your souls, and listen to the sovereignty of the Hungarian people.

Helen Pitt (2:36)

But the fact he made the trip with his wife, usher in tow, 20 weeks pregnant with their fourth child, shows just how keenly the Trump administration is watching this election, which could be the most consequential in the whole of Europe this year. Because if the polls are correct, Orban is on, on his way out after 16 consecutive years as prime minister. But why did Trump and Vance care so much about a tiny country four and a half thousand miles away from Washington? And what will it mean for them and their movement if Orban falls? From the Guardian, I'm Helen Pitt. Today in Focus. Could this be the end of the victator, Flora Garamburgi. Welcome to the show.

Flora Garamburgi (3:18)

Thank you so much for having me.

Helen Pitt (3:20)

So, Flora, we're talking just after the US Vice President J.D. vance made quite an unusual trip to Budapest, dragging along his pregnant wife for the ride. And as we've heard already, Vance called Trump on the phone when he was in the middle, when Trump was in the middle of, like, threatening to wipe out Iran, negotiating a ceasefire. Why does Trump care so much about the elections of a country so far away, a country with just 9 million people?

Flora Garamburgi (3:47)

Hungary has been a model for the Trump presidency for a while now.

J.D. Vance (3:52)

Victor, Victor. We love Victor. Viktor, I call him. You know, I put the little accent on it. You are fantastic. All right.

Flora Garamburgi (4:01)

And US Republicans looked at Hungary for these past years as a model to follow. Basically, Orban's family policies were really the appeal for them. They were thinking about implementing something similar in US policy policies as well. But I think there's a lot more to this topic. Orban is currently on his fourth consecutive term and the fact that he has been so successful and he had similar narratives, similar ideologies to US Republicans in terms of immigration, for example. I think they have found a link to connect with Orban and they were studying his success.

Helen Pitt (4:48)

And what did that model look like? What was this blueprint that Orban provided for Trump and others to follow?

Flora Garamburgi (4:55)

Some of the things that we are seeing happening in the US have already happened in Hungary. A crackdown on the independence of the judiciary, also taking over institutions such as universities, and a general hostility towards global institutions.

Helen Pitt (5:14)

And let's talk a bit about what it's been like as a journalist reporting on Orban. In September 2022, a European Parliament report said that Hungary can no longer be considered a full democracy and labelled it an elected autocracy. And we know that with autocracies come a crackdown on the media. Yeah. What's it been like for journalists?

Flora Garamburgi (5:33)

When I started out, it was much

Hungarian Political Analyst/Journalist (5:34)

easier to talk to politicians. It was much easier to get answers from government institutions. So when I send out a media inquiry Now, I'm 100% sure that I'm not going to get an answer. There is a risk if you publish something that is critical of the government, that the pro government media will publish a smear article about you where they call you all sorts of different things, such as a spy. So right now, about 80% of the media is in the hands of the government or somebody close or friendly to Orban.

Helen Pitt (6:19)

So tell me, how materially has Hungary changed since he's been in power.

Flora Garamburgi (6:24)

Hungary has changed a lot in the

Hungarian Political Analyst/Journalist (6:26)

sense that this country had a really promising glimpse of democracy, that it's going to be a democratic country, and then we're going to be part of the eu, going to receive EU funds. And then the future looked bright when he started out in politics, but then he took more of a turn to the far right. As someone who was born in Hungary, grew up in Hungary, what I can see is that it's a country where it's increasingly risky to say your political opinion out loud because it can cost your job or your financial situation.

Helen Pitt (7:14)

He made this really quite startling statement in 2014 that he was building an illiberal state. What did he mean by that?

Hungarian Political Analyst/Journalist (7:29)

So he made that famous speech in Ballet Tusnad, Romania, where he spoke about Hungary being an illiberal democracy. What that meant is that he limited media pluralism in Hungary. Propaganda was starting to become a part of state media, and he reshaped institutions and he took over institutions that did not belong to the government before.

Helen Pitt (8:03)

Right, okay. And I wonder, do you think that people liked having this strongman leader? They liked his idea, this is Hungary first. That we're going to put national interests ahead of global interests. Do you think that was a key factor in his success for so long?

Hungarian Political Analyst/Journalist (8:17)

Definitely. I think for his supporters, that was a message that they were very much on board with. When you talk to Viktor Orban's supporters, they will tell you that they love him as a person and that he defended the country from all of these enemies. And he's a great leader who defends our country also in Brussels from leaders of the eu. His friendship with Donald Trump is also a big one for his supporters. They are very proud of that relationship between the US President and Viktor Orban. He poses as this regular Hungarian guy. He often emphasizes that he's from Feltud, which is a small town, and that is a big part of his image and of his popularity with his supporters.

Helen Pitt (9:12)

Orban returned to power in 2010. He'd had an earlier four year stint which ended in 2002, but it was probably only in 2015 when most of the rest of the world took notice of what Orban was doing. And that was when he refused to take in Syrian refugees. And I really remember that time so starkly. His position was in stark contrast, wasn't it, to how Angela Merkel in Germany approached the issue. She famously said, ver Schaffendass, we can cope with this. And Germany ended up taking more than 1 million refugees in Merkel's out of office. Orban is still there. You've got the AfD Anti Immigration Party in Germany, you know, snapping at the heels of the establishment in Germany. To what extent has Orban's harsh line on immigration been seen as a success both within and outside Hungary?

Flora Garamburgi (10:02)

Orban really played that anti immigration campaign on people's fear. It's really easy to sell an idea to people that there is something to be afraid of when it comes to foreigners, when it comes to different cultures. Right. And Orban has been pushing this campaign very successfully. Billboards over the country were showing a huge mass of Middle Eastern men standing in line and there was a gigantic stop sign. The message that Hungarians received is that this is something to be scared of. And he built up a propaganda around migrants being violent, especially towards women. And the Hungarian pro government media really focused on any instance they could find anywhere in the world where a person of immigrant background committed a crime.

Helen Pitt (11:15)

You were at this rally in Budapest on Tuesday night. What was it like? How did it compare to Orban rallies of old?

Flora Garamburgi (11:22)

It was really interesting to see Vice President J.D. vance say very similar sentences to what we have heard from Orban before. So to me it sounded a lot like an Orban rally, but with English translation, basically focusing a lot on blaming Brussels bureaucrats for literally everything that is happening right now.

Helen Pitt (11:50)

Yeah.

Flora Garamburgi (11:51)

Vance was also talking about a really high level of foreign interference in the Hungarian campaign, which we have heard in the pro government media quite a lot. But then he went on saying that he's here to help Viktor Orban in this campaign. What he pointed out in that speech that he found concerning, he was doing the exact same thing, basically.

Helen Pitt (12:19)

And the pollsters think that a brand new party led by a guy called Peter Magyar will win the elections. Tell me about him.

Flora Garamburgi (12:27)

His surname means Hungarian in Hungarian. It's actually a very common surname here. And he is a very interesting figure because he is coming from the establishment. He is coming from Fides Orban's party. And when watching his documentary, it was really interesting to see when he was asked about his friends currently, you could see him struggle because all of his friends before he turned on Orban were from Fidest circles. He was the husband of the former Justice Minister Judith Varga.

Helen Pitt (13:01)

And Peter Magyar seems to be going pretty hard on the idea that Orban's regime is corrupt. How important a role does corruption play in Hungarians, seeming to be falling out of love with Orban?

Hungarian Political Analyst/Journalist (13:13)

I will give you a very visual example of corruption so alluring to Mesajos, Viktor Orban's Childhood friend, used to be a gas fitter and now he is worth more than $4.8 billion. He is now a businessman in construction, energy, banking, media firms. And an estate linked to Mesaro has, according to a report, zebras and other exotic animals on it. And since then zebras became a symbol of these anti urban protests. Zebra toys, like plush toys and zebra masks and signs are showing up because it's such a huge symbol of this anti urban movement. This past year another big scandal was when it turned out that Hungary's President Katalin Novak has co signed a pardon for a person who was a co conspirator in a pedophile case in an educational institution. And the other person who co signed this paper was Judith Varga, the Justice Minister.

Helen Pitt (14:33)

Ah yes, the ex wife of Peter Magyar. I've heard rumors of a sex tape involving him and a former girlfriend. And it gives me the sense that maybe there are some dirty tricks afoot in this election. Tell me about this tape, is it real?

Flora Garamburgi (14:47)

During this election campaign, Fides has really turned on the heat with all of its efforts to win, including floating the idea of a sex tape existing of mayor. And what he has said is that we're not really going to see anything else but two consenting adults on this video. Unless it's about drugs or multiple people being involved, I don't think Hungarian society is going to care that much about this tape.

Helen Pitt (15:29)

One of the hallmarks of Orban's regime has been his hostility towards the eu, which I find particularly interesting given that during his first stint as Prime Minister, which ended in 2002, he was the guy basically preparing for Hungary to join the EU in 2004. But tell us, what is Orban's problem with the the EU and how has that played out over the past 16 years?

Flora Garamburgi (15:52)

His main struggle with the EU is that the funds the EU is sending to Hungary are not being used in an appropriate way. The EU's view is that Orban is misusing these funds to enrich Orban circles. And these funds have gone to businessmen in the circles of Fides and it did not benefit the Hungarian people.

Narrator/Announcer (16:19)

The European Commission has decided to take a strong stance against Hungary. It calls on EU countries to freeze 7.5 billion euros of EU cohesion funds as the country has not made enough progress with its reforms against corruption.

Helen Pitt (16:36)

How has that affected your ordinary Hungarian's life?

Flora Garamburgi (16:39)

Where it has been most apparent is that Hungarians are still struggling to make a living. The salaries are not on the level of your average EU salary. We do have free health care in Hungary, but it also comes with a really, really long waiting time. Hospitals that are not necessarily the most acceptable in Hungary. And this is something that you see on a daily level in Hungarian social media where Hungarians are showing that this is not the healthcare they signed up for.

Helen Pitt (17:18)

What about energy prices? Because one of the claims that J.D. vance made in Budapest this week is that Hungarians pay lower prices for their electricity and gas because of Orban's policies. Is that true?

Flora Garamburgi (17:29)

Yes. So partially, Orban's relations to Russia is justified by low energy prices resulting from cheap Russian energy coming to Hungary. So that is one reason where Orban justifies his really close relations to Putin since the war broke out.

Helen Pitt (17:51)

Yeah. And I wonder how that relationship with Putin goes down with your average Hungarian. And I think their friendship has come under particular scrutiny during this campaign, hasn't it? How close are they?

Flora Garamburgi (18:03)

Well, we have just seen a new report by Bloomberg that shows a transcript where Orban and Putin are on the phone and Orban basically is likening himself to a mouse who is standing ready to help Russia, which is the lion.

Helen Pitt (18:24)

My goodness.

Flora Garamburgi (18:25)

And he's ready to help Putin as needed. Based on this transcript, this is not something that we have not suspected before. So we have seen high level Hungarian officials, including our Foreign Minister Sierto, traveling to Moscow several times since Russia invaded Ukraine. This is a very unusual thing because if we're looking at the surrounding countries like Poland, this is not something that their foreign ministers or prime ministers are doing. So Hungary has really chosen a path where they have kept their tight relations with Russia despite Russia's attacks.

Helen Pitt (19:06)

And there's been a lot of controversy, hasn't there, about a leaked phone call between the Hungarian Foreign Minister and his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov. Tell me about that.

Peter Sierto (19:14)

Hello? Hello, Sergey, this is Peter speaking. Yes, Peter, are you in St. Petersburg?

Flora Garamburgi (19:19)

So the Washington Post has reported a few weeks ago that Peter Sierto and his Russian counterpart Lavrov has been making phone calls even when Sierra Tho was in Brussels at EU meetings. And he has been forwarding information to Lavrov about what has been going on on these closed door meetings with EU leaders. This is something that has been confirmed to us at the Guardian too. We reported about this as well. And this has been something that was kind of an open secret in Brussels for a while now. But this is the first time we have seen proof in a form of a recorded phone conversation between the two ministers.

Helen Pitt (20:11)

Yeah, it's quite astonishing. I heard a clip of the phone call and it's really, you know, you could argue that it's a pretty treacherous thing to do.

Peter Sierto (20:18)

You were on all headlines in the Russian media today. Oh, did I say something wrong? No, no, no, no, no. They were just saying that you are pragmatically fighting for the interests of your country. Oh, well. Well, that's a very, let's say, nice, let's say analysis of the situation. Nice way to put it.

Helen Pitt (20:41)

And given that one of the biggest points of disagreements between the EU and Hungary in recent years has been Orban's approach to the Ukraine war and his unwillingness really to help the Ukrainians, can you just briefly outline what Orban is on the Ukraine conflict and how he's using that to try and win re election?

Flora Garamburgi (21:01)

So there are two things that we have to mention here. One is that when we're walking around here in Budapest, we're seeing Zelenskyy's face, the Ukrainian president face plastered all over these billboards in Hungary. This is a wanted style photo where the text says he's dangerous. And there are other billboards as well where he is shown with EU chief Ursula von der Leyen. And they are shown as the force behind the Hungarian opposition. And the other thing is that Orban has really built his 2022 election campaign on peace. The slogan was we are the country of peace. Our goal is to have peace. But he never really explained what that peace would look like for Ukraine. So we're seeing elements of the 2022 campaign built into this campaign this year, the 2026 one, where pro government social media campaigns are built on the slogan of this is not our war. We want to be excluded from this war. Hungary just wants to be safe. And they are even going a step further where they are saying, we're not going to send Hungarian troops to Ukraine.

Helen Pitt (22:22)

Is that on the table though? I mean, is that realistic that Hungarian troops could be sent?

Flora Garamburgi (22:25)

Absolutely not.

Helen Pitt (22:26)

But still, I can see how that would sort of play into the fears of the population. And as you've already mentioned, if Orban is telling Hungarians that they've got cheap energy because it's come from Russia, then is there a sympathy towards Russia within the Hungarian population rather than with Ukrainians?

Flora Garamburgi (22:42)

Hungarians are not necessarily sympathetic towards Russia and I have seen a lot of really kind gestures towards Ukrainians when the war broke out. So Hungarians were willing to offer their couch or their spare room to Ukrainian refugees. I think this is something that is typical of Hungarians, this welcoming spirit towards people, people in need. And that was really beautiful to see. So I wouldn't say that is a sympathy or leaning towards Russia, but more like accepting this narrative that is coming from the government that this is a necessary relationship.

Helen Pitt (23:29)

Coming up. If Orban loses, will he accept defeat?

Flora Garamburgi (23:46)

Lunch was great, but this traffic is awful.

Narrator/Announcer (23:49)

Um, can we stop at a bathroom?

Flora Garamburgi (23:51)

Are you alright?

Narrator/Announcer (23:51)

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my doctor about EPI and if Creon could help.

Helen Pitt (24:52)

Let's talk about what could happen next if Orban loses the election as the polls suggest. Will he go quietly, do you think? Will there be a peaceful transfer of power?

Hungarian Political Analyst/Journalist (25:02)

We have seen Orban lose before, so he harried the government with obstruction tactics in the parliament and he really just took politics to the street. There were a lot of protests against that left wing government at the time, so we can expect something similar this time as well. In terms of peaceful transfer of power, we are seeing a very different Orban now and we don't really know what we can expect from him if that happens because that hasn't happened in 16 years. So I have no predictions for you for that.

Helen Pitt (25:38)

No, it's very sensible to not predict the result. But if Orban goes, how easy would it be for the new government to reverse what many would see as the damage that he's caused?

Hungarian Political Analyst/Journalist (25:50)

If they get a 2 3rd majority, they're going to have an easier time reversing those laws and policies that that many Hungarians are critical of. And in case of a simple majority, while Tisa says they have a plan, we have not heard that plan yet of how they are going to execute their campaign promises. If the results are tight and if

Helen Pitt (26:17)

Orban wins yet another term, what can we expect from, would it be his fifth term in government?

Hungarian Political Analyst/Journalist (26:23)

It would be his sixth term and it would be his. His fifth consecutive term. And we can expect exactly what he says. I think with nationalists and with far right politicians, we really have to listen to what they say because they're going to do exactly that. And with Orban, he sounded really angry with these last rallies that we have seen from him. And we might expect that anger translate to going after some political enemies and going forward with his far right policies and maybe further eroding democracy in Hungary.

Helen Pitt (27:11)

Retribution. Sounds familiar, doesn't it?

J.D. Vance (27:13)

I am your retribution. I am your retribution. Not going to let this happen.

Helen Pitt (27:19)

And as we've discussed, Orban really wrote the playbook that Trump and others have been using. And in February, Marco Rubio, Trump Secretary of State, said of Orban, your success is our success. And this election is being called the most important election in Europe this year. If Orban loses, do you think that his admirers, including Trump, will start to question whether aping him is the way forward? I mean, for Trump, theoretically, this is his second and final term, so he can't stand again. But there'll be others in Europe who look if he loses and think, hmm, maybe we need to change course. What do you think?

Flora Garamburgi (27:52)

I think for Trump, what I have heard from my sources is that he does not want to associate with losers, so he will cut ties immediately with Orban if he loses this election. This is just something that is a theory, what my sources have told me, but it's a very possible one.

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Helen Pitt (28:13)

Plausible. Plausible, yes.

Flora Garamburgi (28:15)

They also explained this visit from J.D. vance to Budapest, that this is the reason why Trump didn't come and Vance came instead, that Trump does not want to be seen with someone who might lose the elections on Sunday. So from his side, we will probably see a distancing. But in Europe, I think it's going to be a very different picture because if Orban loses by a very tight margin, I think he will focus on building his far right network, far right group in Europe, he will focus on foreign politics a lot more than domestic for a while. We have seen this behavior from him in these past years as well, and he will try to come back stronger and with with a bigger group behind him in Europe.

Helen Pitt (29:12)

So it sounds like you think even if Orban does lose on Sunday, it won't be the last we see of him. Flora, thank you very much.

Hungarian Political Analyst/Journalist (29:19)

Thank you so much for having me.

Helen Pitt (29:24)

That was Flora Garamboogi. You can read all of her reporting from hungaryguardian.com she and colleagues will be live blogging the result of the election on Sunday on the Guardian Live blog. So watch out for that. That too. And that is all for today. This episode was produced by Ned Carter, Miles, Guy Zafman and Natalie Katana. Presented by me, Helen Pitt. Sound design was by Ross Burns and the executive producer was Elizabeth Cassin. We'll be back in your feeds this afternoon with the latest.

Narrator/Announcer (29:55)

This is the Guardian.

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