
Guardian columnist Rafael Behr talks through a tumultuous day for Labour and Keir Starmer – following the resignation of health secretary Wes Streeting, and the renewed possibility of a Westminster comeback for Andy Burnham
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Noshi Nikbala
This is the Guardian.
Interviewer/Host
Today, the Labour Party, the u. Okay hun.
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Interviewer/Host
It has been quite the week for Web Streeting. It was only seven days ago after Labour's disastrous local elections. Now all eyes turned on the Health Secretary, perhaps the most ambitious man in Parliament.
Political Commentator
But we need someone from within the cabinet to step forward as the leader and then we will have a new leader of the party without having to have a leadership election.
Interviewer/Host
Would he now finally make his move to kill Keir Starmer's premiership?
Political Analyst
What we've seen in the last couple of hours since the Prime Minister's speech is a trickle, perhaps more than a trickle of MP after MP.
Interviewer/Host
First, dozens of MPs called for Starmer to go.
Noshi Nikbala
More than 50 Labour MPs have come
Interviewer/Host
out and said there are at least 70 now who no longer back the PM, including five. Was it all some we're Streeting plot? Then on Tuesday came the ministers. The Communities Minister Miyata Fanbulla has resigned.
Noshi Nikbala
I just learned exclusively Jess Phillips has resigned from government.
Interviewer/Host
Government many notably said to be allies of West.
Noshi Nikbala
One of those resignations came from Health
Political Reporter
Minister Zubih Ahmed, an ally of Wes Streeting.
Interviewer/Host
By Wednesday, almost every front page claimed that Streeting was about to go.
Noshi Nikbala
What did he say?
Reporter/Interviewer
Mr. Streeting, did you ask the Prime Minister to resign?
Noshi Nikbala
Allies of the Health Secretary Wes Streeting are telling us that they expect him to launch a challenge against Zakir Starmer perhaps as soon as possible. Is he still the Health Secretary? Can we just confirm that I. Again, I don't know. I'm in your studio answering your questions, Sarah.
Interviewer/Host
On Thursday lunchtime it came well.
Noshi Nikbala
I'm literally just hearing in my ear that the Health Secretary, Wes Streeting has resigned. All morning we have been wondering whether
Interviewer/Host
Streeting was resigning as Health Secretary, but he wasn't challenging Starmer yet.
Political Figure/Commentator
In it he says it is now clear that you will not lead the Labour Party into the next general election. Labour MPs and labour unions want the debate about what comes next to be a battle of ideas.
Interviewer/Host
And then plot twist on Thursday evening, news from the North.
Noshi Nikbala
Breaking news there.
Interviewer/Host
Josh Simons is standing down Makerfield MP Josh Simons was stepping down to allow Andy Burnham a fighting chance to win his seat, return to Parliament and make his play to be pm. From the Guardian, I'm Noshi Nikbal. Today in Focus, what happens to Labour now? Raphael Baer. Welcome back to Today in Focus.
Noshi Nikbala
It's a pleasure to be here.
Interviewer/Host
Now, you are a political columnist for the Guardian and we are talking to you. On Thursday, hours after the resignation of the Health Secretary, Wes Dreeting, he said in his letter, where we need vision, we have a vacuum. Where we need direction, we have drift. What did you make of his resignation?
Noshi Nikbala
Well, as significant as his departure was the fact that he didn't then also go on to directly challenge the Prime Minister for his job. And so it feels a little bit as if we've been waiting quite a long time to know whether or not Wes Streeting has the support, has the momentum to be a challenger to take on Keir Starmer for that job. You get the impression perhaps he felt that momentum had risen to such a critical pitch over the last 24 hours, he had no choice but to stand down, regardless of whether or not he had the MP support, the nominations that he needed to be a candidate in any leadership contest. So it feels as if, having felt enough, sufficient pressure to, as it were, wield the knife against the Prime Minister, he's flashed the knife but not fully wielded it. So it's quite curious in that respect. But look, the big picture here is that it hasn't been a secret that Wes Reaching has ambitions to be Prime Minister to replace Keir Starmer, that he's been dissatisfied for quite a long time. And as I say, I suppose he came to the conclusion that to use the rather crude idiom, he kind of had to piss or get off the pot on this one. And this had been a long time coming.
Interviewer/Host
It's interesting you say that about Streeting, because as far back as I can remember, every time his name is mentioned, he is also talked up, the self anointed next leader of the Labour Party. And yet, as we've seen, he needed, needed 81 MPs to back him in a challenge against Starmer and he hasn't actually gotten there. I mean, does that suggest he's just not that popular in the parties he thought he was? You know, that basically wears. They're just not that into you.
Noshi Nikbala
Well, we don't know that he, he doesn't have the 81 names. You have to assume that if he did, then we would be having a different conversation now. It's certainly been the case that there is a section of the Parliamentary Labour Party and best represented, I think, in the cabinet as well, that if asked the question if, if not Keir Starmer, who do you think is the. Has the, the necessary capabilities to do the job? Would say, you know, maybe with some caveats, but they say we're treating and part a large part of that is because he's considered to be the best performer. And that is a deficiency of Keir Starmer. No one really doubts that. He's not very good at telling a story. He's not very good at persuasion. The question is whether you can turn a few dozen, a few score MPs who think that's self evidently true. He's the best communicator. If there were a vacancy or a contest and he was in it, he might be my candidate. If you can crystallise that and harden it into will you be my shock troops to go over the top and make this happen now and there, it seems there's been a bit of a miscalculation that to have notional promises of, look, when it comes to it, you seem to be my candidate versus, you know. Yeah, put us on the spreadsheet. We're 100% down for you. That. That's where there seems to have been a bit of a, let's say a miscommunication.
Interviewer/Host
Ralph it has turned out to be quite the day of political drama. Josh Simons, the Labour MP for Makerfield in Greater Manchester, announced on Thursday evening that he he was stepping down from his seat to force a by election that Andy Burnham could then stand in. Seems like it's been a pretty good day for Andy Burnham. Right.
Noshi Nikbala
It certainly feels that Andy Burnham, having been in a tricky position now has been thrown a lifeline, a double lifeline, because as we were discussing, Wes Reaching hasn't initiated an immediate contest. And after a lot of failed attempts to persuade someone to step aside, Josh Simmons has fallen on his sword. And there is a theoretical pathway for Burnham now to get into Parliament. Everyone knows he wants to be a candidate to replace Keir Starmer, join whatever contest, should there be one. Whenever it happens, he's potentially on the ballot paper. But we've always got to remember he's still got to win the seat. There's got to be a by election. There's still a lot of moving parts in this genius plan to somehow get Andy Burnham from being Mayor of Manchester to leader of the Labour Party and Prime Minister. But yes, I think it's certainly he looks in better shape now by the end of the recording of this podcast than he was not that long ago.
Interviewer/Host
And Keir Starmer has reportedly indicated that Labour would allow Burnham to contest this seat, having already blocked him from doing so in the Gorton and Denton by election back in February. But as you say, Burnham can't take for granted that he will win. This will be a tough campaign.
Noshi Nikbala
Obviously all of this is predicated on Andy Burnham winning the seat. And unsurprisingly, Reform uk, who came second in Makefield in the general election, it's not a huge majority, it's about 5,000. Reform UK will throw everything at this and they've said they will, and they will absolutely want to quash and crush Burnham's aspirations, blow up his candidacy before it's even got off the launchpad. It's worth also saying this will be a very interesting test of whether Andy Burnham can persuade everyone else, all of the potentially available Stop Reform voters, which is a lot. People who vote Green, people who vote Lib Dem, even people who vote Conservative. Can he galvanize them to say, okay, look, this is basically a question of who are you with? Are you with a liberal, centre left, moderate, whatever you call that, family of voters, or are you with the hard line nationalists? Are you with reform? So that is going to be actually a dry run for the question I think Labour will want to put at the general election. So it is going to be a really interesting by election campaign.
Interviewer/Host
And so what impact do you think this has then on the other names that have been suggested as candidates? You know, like former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, even Environment Minister and former Labour leader one time wannabe Ed Miliband.
Noshi Nikbala
This is exactly the problem that we've had over the last 48, 72 hours. There are so many names around and it's all got into sort of multi dimensional chess. Not least because Andy Burnham is probably the most popular choice in the broad middle we call the soft left of the Labour Party and in the parliamentary party. And then you had, until today you had the additional problem for Angela Rayner, who I think would also be a popular candidate on the left of the party, that she had an HMRC investigation hanging over her. And now that has been removed. And it's interesting, it's been removed with more cleanliness, I think, than some of her critics or rivals might have hoped. She hasn't been penalized. It seems to have been understood that broadly it was a misunderstanding. And so in terms of the damage done to her reputation, look, Angela Rayner, lots of people get very angry with her that the Conservative and reform leaning media would. Would be ferocious against her because for all sorts of reasons, largely to do with class and gender prejudice. But so having a tax question of you is not ideal. But other things being equal that she really does seem to be able to put that behind her and then that crowded the field a little bit as well. And she is an MP and yeah, I mean Ed Miliband. Well, we know at some stage he's wanted to be Labour leader because he was Labour leader. We also know that he, he wanted to be Prime Minister and he went to the country and offered his services. Prime Minister and the country quite clearly said no. So I think there's an open question as to whether the Labour Party in the country and also Labour MPs will feel wary of that particular circumstance because it is a problem to the country. A dish that they've already sent back to the kitchen once before.
Interviewer/Host
Well, let's talk about the ideas at play here because Treating has accused Starmer of having no vision, as many others have. But what are the different visions that the various candidates have for how to get Labour out of this message?
Noshi Nikbala
To the extent that there is a developed alternative program, I think people would probably say Andy Burnham has put the most flesh on the bones. He's spoken quite directly about wanting institutional reform. He supports proportional representation. He wants to stop using the whip system to allow sort of a freer parliamentary debate. He's hinted, suggested that the triple lock may be up for negotiations. So you can actually do some quite interesting fiscal maneuver around there if you're prepared to go to that place he's run, Manchester and he's talked about having a more ambitious strategic state intervention in the economy, whether that's nationalization of public services or other things. That is a more clearly articulated further social democratic project than the one we've got so far. In terms of where streeting there's a pamphlet published by the Labour Growth Group which is considered to be be roughly speaking aligned with Wes treating where there's talk of tax reform and maybe raising capital gains tax so you could cut VAT or cut employer national insurance to try and boost growth, but in a way that would be fiscally neutral. So there are actual ideas floating around and I think almost anyone who replaces Keir Dahmer as leader of the Labour Party will also want to be more ambitious on Europe. But whether any of them is actually going to come out and say, yeah, those red lines that we had in the 2024 manifesto, no single market, no customs union should be dissolved before the next election. Well, that's a bigger ask.
Interviewer/Host
Would you think any of those candidates have actually really and seriously engaged with why Labour under Starmer is failing?
Noshi Nikbala
It's very difficult to disentangle the problem of Keir Starmer as a personality, as someone who has not made clear decisions, not set a clear sense of direction, not articulated a clear destination for the country and the policy choices that have been made. So it's interesting, going back to Wes Streeting's resignation letter, that he named the island of Strangers speech, which a lot of people in the Labour Party thought was a pointlessly unpleasant raiding of Enoch Powell like language on immigration. He mentioned the Wind's fuel payment cuts, which a lot of people thought felt was a pointlessly and poorly executed demonstration of fiscal discipline that involved essentially taking money away from pensioners, which is not necessarily a good way to inanimate yourself to the country. Certainly not early on in a parliament. But were those ideological mistakes, were those expressions of deficiency in the political projects, or were they just a sign of a administration that didn't really have a plan, didn't really know what it was doing? So, so many of the problems that Keir Starmer has faced, if we set aside the deficiency of communication, are actually expressions of the fact that there isn't a whole lot of money available. Borrowing money is difficult because the bond market, the gilt market, takes a pretty dim view of political chaos and, you know, expect very clear revenue income. And in the manifesto, Labour committed to not raising taxes on working people, as the expression was. And so in order to do the sorts of things that certainly Labour MPs like to think a Labour government is all about, particularly spending more on public services, supporting the most vulnerable people in the society. How you do that when you are in fiscally straightened circumstances is just really, really hard.
Interviewer/Host
And is that something that a Labour government with another leader is realistically going to be able to do?
Noshi Nikbala
It does require an ability to make some really tough choices or an ability to win some really tough arguments about tax and spend in the country. And those are two things that Keir Starm hasn't been able to do. But there is a section of the left of the Labour Party that will say that the fiscal rules are a problem, they're a fiction, they're needlessly restrictive. If you want to just govern well, they're self imposed. And there is in rational macroeconomic argument, there is a lot of truth in that. It is also true that the people who lend money to the UK government like the existence of the fiscal rules as a demonstration of serious intent to not spend beyond your means as a country. And much though we might wish it were not true, the bond market is a very powerful disciplinarian in this field. And the fact that, for example, Andy Burnham is on record as saying we should not be necessarily in hock to the bond market, that quote has damaged him very, very badly in the City and in finance. And he might wish that weren't the case, but I can tell you that definitely is the case. And one of the things, if he wants to be leader of Labour Party, he can make the point another way and try and get on, but he has to make it clear that he definitely misspoke, as it were, when he said that.
Interviewer/Host
Coming up, a peek inside Keir Starmer's brain.
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Interviewer/Host
Of course, Raf, let's not forget that Starmer is still Prime Minister and there is currently no formal challenger. He has, of course, faced this disastrous set of local elections. 80 of his MPs have called on him to go, as well as four the ministers before the big one, of course, his health secretary sat inside number 10. Now, what do you think he's thinking?
Noshi Nikbala
My understanding of Keir Starmer's personality is that he is incredibly stubborn, he's incredibly ambitious, he has a very strong sense of civic duty and he believes very clearly and very powerfully that it is his responsibility to do this almost to the point of a kind of arrogant vanity, and that he will still think if I apply myself to this problem with enough diligence and people will just get out of the way and let me solve this problem. I can do it and I've got time. Without necessarily wanting to admit, because it's quite a hard thing for anyone to admit that he is the problem. And you can't, you can't prescribe more of yourself in that situation.
Interviewer/Host
So something of a messiah complex.
Noshi Nikbala
Everyone who becomes Prime Minister ends up a little bit in that place, to be honest. It is. It is intrinsic to the role and the ambition of people who get into that role, I would say. But also there, there has to come a point where he thinks, enough already. Whether that's because of his family or whether someone, as I believe people have communicated to him about the future of the Labour Party, that You will destroy the party itself if you don't recognize that you are now a problem here. At some point that will get through. But my instincts, my guess, it's not much more than a guess, is that if he can be given a ladder to climb down with his dignity intact, which is the longer run, the longer transition, the thing that we're streeting this resignation letter also pointed to, you can get to a place where he will say, okay, look, in all seriousness, I do recognise that perhaps I'm not the person to lead this party into a general election. And then the logjam's broken, then there's all sorts of negotiations that could go on. Andy Burnham could get into Parliament. I think it needs that step yet to go where he has to sufficiently feel that his dignity is honoured and respected and there is still a legacy available to him that isn't just you bit off more than you could chew and you failed.
Interviewer/Host
If it wasn't bad enough to ask you to get into Keir Starmer's head, raf, I'm going to ask you to enter Nigel Farage's instead. How do you think Reform will be responding to all of this?
Noshi Nikbala
Please don't make me go into Nigel Farage's head. But okay, I'll do my best. They must be loving it. Of course they're loving it because they're loving the fact that it's just complete mess and chaos and it. This entirely amplifies their argument that laboratory, what's the difference? And therefore you need a complete rupture from both of them. The idea that laboratory are essentially equivalent propositions is very important to the Nigel Farage message and the fact that we are back in this situation that, I mean, there are nuanced differences, but I think a lot of people will look at it and go, weren't we just here before with all those Tories? It feels very much the same vibe. So that is absolutely brilliant for Farage's argument. You know, I think perhaps they might think the best case scenario is after all this, you've still got Keir Starmer as the leader. He's incredibly unpopular and therefore that's also good for any opposition party.
Interviewer/Host
But might Reform be worried about Starmer getting replaced with Burnham as soon as
Noshi Nikbala
there's a change of leadership? Naturally there is a danger that there's a honeymoon, someone comes in, there's a bounce, you get someone in, you get the second audition and people look. I think that the main recommendation for Andy Burnham and what his supporters will say is self evidently he is the person best placed to do that because he's shown that he can do it in Manchester and he's actually brought quite a broad spectrum of people behind him in Manchester and he's worked with people from other parties. And his critics will say, well, it's this kind of blokey, king of the north shtick. It's not serious. But actually, his, his. He is pretty much the only Labour politician with a net positive poll rating. And in the current circumstances, that's not to be sniffed at. That is quite a significant asset, I would say. Also, in terms of just the. The cephology of this, what Labour's strategy is going into a general election, what is the actual task? You speak to Labour MPs, what they will essentially say is, look, who are we kidding? The job is to stop Nigel Farage becoming Prime Minister. There are quite a lot of people who didn't vote Labour in the local and devolved elections. More of the people who drifted to the Greens, as I understand it from the polling, than people who might have stayed at home or even gone off to reform. But a lot of people who still are open to voting labor, the evidence suggests that it's not a sort of a sealed wound now where people just think it's a scar. I don't want to go there. I'm done with Labour. They are open to Labour, so it's not impossible that the right leader comes in, they pass that second audition, Labour's poll share goes up and suddenly it looks like we've had peak Farage, and so he must be worried about that. But there are also candidates potentially on the ballot that Farage would be absolutely cock a hoop to see become leader of the Labour Party. And Joseph's praying for some of those people to win, to get on the pallet and win so that he can attack them.
Interviewer/Host
Blimey. Doesn't sound like it's going to get any less messy anytime soon. Raf, thank you so much for your time.
Noshi Nikbala
Thank you for having me.
Interviewer/Host
That was Raf Albert. My thanks to him. You can read Raf's columns and all of our coverage of this story@theguardian.com and that's it for today. This episode was presented by me, Noshi Nikbala. It was produced by Ivor Manley, sound designers by Ross Burns, and the executive producer was Sammy Kent. We'll be back this afternoon with the latest.
Noshi Nikbala
This is the Guardian.
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Podcast Date: May 15, 2026
Host: Noshi Nikbala (with guest Raphael Baer, The Guardian political columnist)
This episode explores the growing crisis inside the Labour Party following a disastrous week of resignations, leadership turmoil, and escalating factional battles. With Keir Starmer’s leadership teetering after mass MP defections, the discussion centers on Wes Streeting’s high-profile resignation, Andy Burnham’s potential return to Westminster, and the brewing scramble for the party’s future direction. Guest Raphael Baer provides in-depth analysis of the shifting political calculus, candidate prospects, and the challenges facing Labour as it approaches a pivotal crossroads.
For complete coverage, read more of Raphael Baer’s analysis and Guardian reporting at theguardian.com.