Nigel Farage v Count Binface

Summary

Today in Focus: Nigel Farage v Count Binface (July 9, 2026)

Overview

In this episode, Helen Pidd is joined by Guardian political correspondent Ben Quinn to dissect one of the most theatrical moments in recent UK politics: Nigel Farage’s resignation as MP for Clacton-on-Sea, triggering a by-election that is shaping up—bizarrely—as a contest between Farage and the satirical “Count Binface,” after all major parties refused to stand candidates. The discussion blends on-the-ground insight and sharp analysis of Farage’s strategy, the scandals dogging him, and the real risks of his latest high-stakes political gamble.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

Farage’s Shocking By-Election Gambit

• Farage’s Announcement: On Tuesday, in a much-hyped live stream flanked by Union Jacks and London landmarks, Farage announced his resignation as MP for Clacton—just weeks after finally being elected—deliberately forcing a by-election. (01:19, 01:42)

  • “I thought about it hard and I’ve decided today, today I will resign as a Member of Parliament for Clacton on Sea, thereby forcing a by election.” – Nigel Farage [01:42]
  • The move is framed by Farage as “a people versus the establishment by-election” [01:54], yet, as Ben Quinn notes, “the establishment isn’t playing”: all major parties promptly declared they wouldn’t stand.

• Motivation & Strategy: Ben Quinn expresses a mix of surprise and recognition, noting it's "classic Farage"—a diversionary move to seize the initiative and reset the narrative amid mounting scandal. (03:29)

  • “It was also classic Farage, this sort of a rabbit out of the hat and to try and distract, distort and also take the initiative.” – Ben Quinn [03:29]

Scandals and Shadowy Allies

• The £5 Million Gift: Farage is under investigation by the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards for failing to declare a massive £5 million “gift” from Christopher Harborne, a Thai-based crypto billionaire and Reform UK donor. (04:05)

  • “Farage did not declare [the gift], and that came from Christopher Harborne, who’s a Thai based crypto billionaire and a donor to Reform.” – Ben Quinn [04:05]

• George Cottrell (“Posh George”): Farage’s long-time confidant, a convicted criminal (wire fraud in the US), has allegedly helped Farage with staffing, security, and even the use of an opulent townhouse—none of which Farage declared. (04:45–06:57)

  • “He’s co-authored a book with someone else, literally, called 'How to Launder Money.'” – Ben Quinn [05:30]
  • Both Farage and his allies now claim technicalities (the gifts were from when he was not an MP), but questions about crypto interests and political quid pro quos remain.

• Losing the Narrative: Farage’s reluctance to take questions and increasingly insular communications—video statements, not open pressers—created a sense of siege and elite detachment, undermining his "man of the people" persona. (08:24)

  • “He’s the man that will take all the questions... all of a sudden... there’s been this shift where he addresses the voters... mainly through these sort of video statements... So he's on the run, it would seem.” – Ben Quinn [08:24]
  • Memorable retort from Farage: “It's an unconditional gift. I can spend it on Ferraris if I want.” [09:13]

Internal Reform UK Turmoil

• Cracks Appear: Reform’s reputation for unity is fracturing—a string of old hands and ambitious newcomers are jostling for position, and even the party chair suggested Farage needed “a bit of a rest.” (09:39)
• Member Discontent: Grassroots members bristle at the handling of the Harborne gift, fearing it’s cutting through and alienating reform-curious voters. (10:00–11:27)
  • “They're worried, they feel that the 5 million pound gift is cutting through. They don't like how it looks and they're not really happy with how it's been dealt with.” – Ben Quinn [10:00]
• Electoral Consequences: Internal polling suggests Farage is, in fact, less popular than his party brand—he’s “a Marmite figure… people either love him or they detest him.” (24:07)

The By-Election with No Opponents—Except a Bin

• Other Parties Bow Out: All establishment parties—Tories, Labour, Lib Dems, Greens, as well as fringe right-wing groups—declined to contest, denying Farage the foil he wanted. (16:18)
  • “So it’s really just at the moment set up as a sort of a standoff between Farage and Count Binface.” – Ben Quinn [17:40]
• Binface’s Manifesto: The “novelty” candidate touts policies such as nationalizing Adele and making water bosses swim in rivers (17:54):
  • “I pledge to build at least one affordable house. I will nationalize Adele and I'll make water bosses have to take a dip in British rivers to see how they like it. I'll price cap 99 flakes at 99 pence.” – Count Binface [17:54]
• Risks of Absurdity: The scenario raises the prospect of a farcical result and low turnout, with Farage "on stage... with a man wearing a bin standing beside him.” (19:09)
• Cost & Optics: The by-election is expensive (an estimated £250,000) and may frustrate Clacton voters, especially if yet another by-election follows should the Standards Commissioner rule against Farage. (19:05, 20:06)

Media Intrusion, Victimhood, and Farage’s Riches

• Claims of Persecution: Farage, in his resignation speech, laments media “intrusion” into his family life and safety concerns, particularly citing threats to his daughter. (12:44)
• His Wealth Under Scrutiny: Farage justifies his fortune as the product of giving up a lucrative business career and building a media/influencer profile, accusing Labour of lacking “successful business people.” (14:42–15:28)
• Ben Quinn’s Take: Most of his fortune comes from exploiting his political profile, not entrepreneurial brilliance. (14:54)

What Next? Political Calculus & Potential Pitfalls

• By-Election as a Dead-End: The consensus is Farage will probably win but might appear self-aggrandizing, silly, and out of touch—especially as establishment parties have denied him his preferred “us versus them” contest. (26:21)
  • “That’s the risk, isn’t it? It looks like he is showboating and basically engaged in this sort of selfish stunt.” – Ben Quinn [26:21]
• Party Mood: Reform members will rally publicly, but polling indicates Farage could be a drag rather than a boost. (24:48)
• Voter Sentiment in Clacton: While Farage remains popular locally, some are likely frustrated after years of political drama and national attention, underpinned by entrenched local deprivation and unmet needs. (21:11)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Nigel Farage’s combative stance:
  “It’s a chance to stick two fingers up to the entire establishment, to frankly tell them where to go.” [12:36]
• On the gift from Harborne:
  “It's an unconditional gift. I can spend it on Ferraris if I want.” [09:13]
• Farage on media scrutiny and family:
  “I will not tolerate intimidation of my family. I will not tolerate the location of where they live being revealed… because of what I choose to do in public life.” [13:25]
• Farage’s claim to capitalist authenticity:
  “He said he's been an influencer, he said he's promoted various products, namely gold… He has earned £270,000 for that, the single biggest payment he's registered since becoming an MP.” – Ben Quinn [15:17, 15:28]
• The farce of the by-election:
  “What is the point of a byelection if your main opponent is a man with a bin on his head?” – Helen Pidd [18:25]
• Polling reality check:
  “Farage is seen unfavourably by 65% of Britons, compared with 25% who like him.” – Helen Pidd [24:48]
• On public fatigue:
  “At the end of the pier you wonder, is there a point at which people become fed up with that?” – Ben Quinn [26:49]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 01:42 – Farage announces resignation and by-election
• 04:05 – The £5 million Harborne gift scandal
• 04:45–06:57 – George Cottrell’s criminal past and proximity to Farage
• 08:24 – Farage losing the narrative, dodging press, and perceived elitism
• 10:00–11:27 – Internal party divisions and discontent over the gift
• 12:36 – Farage’s “two fingers up” rhetoric
• 13:25 – Claims of media harassment and family endangerment
• 14:42–15:28 – Farage’s business credentials challenged
• 16:18–17:40 – Major parties refuse to stand; Binface steps in
• 17:54 – Binface’s satirical policy pledges
• 19:09 – The optics and cost of the by-election
• 24:07, 24:48 – Farage’s polarizing effect within Reform and among voters
• 26:21 – The risk Farage ends up looking “a bit daft”

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Conclusion

In trademark style, Farage has forced himself back into the spotlight, but the risks—loss of control, ridicule, and waning authenticity—are clear. Reform UK faces internal discord and an unpredictable summer, while Farage’s attempt to re-cast himself as an anti-establishment underdog may simply underscore political absurdity. Meanwhile, a constituency with deep social needs and history at the epicenter of UKIP/Reform drama is again left as a backdrop to Farage’s relentless showmanship.

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For further reporting on this and other UK political developments, visit theguardian.com.

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Transcript

[Guardian Announcer]

This is the Guardian.

[Helen Beard]

Today. Nigel farage vs. Count ben face.

[Guardian Announcer]

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[Helen Beard]

One minute. Afternoon on Tuesday, Nigel Farage posted a cryptic message on social media saying simply,

[Reporter]

I will make a statement on my

[Ben Quinn]

future in public life at 2pm Just

[Helen Beard]

after 2pm, he appeared slightly harassed on Reform's YouTube channel.

[Nigel Farage]

Good afternoon, everybody. Two years ago, after several years, flanked

[Helen Beard]

by two Union Jacks, the towers of Westminster and the London Eye in the background, he spent the first 14 minutes complaining.

[Nigel Farage]

So, yes, you can ask am I angry? But I've never been angrier in my life.

[Helen Beard]

Then finally came the big announcement.

[Nigel Farage]

I thought about it hard and I've decided today, today I will resign as a Member of Parliament for Clacton on Sea, thereby forcing a by election.

[Helen Beard]

It was, he said, a people versus the establishment by election. Only the establishment isn't playing we're not

[Rupert Lowe]

standing a candidate in the fake by election, which Nigel Farage, you know, I think that's certainly going to be one of the options on the table because, you know, why should we all dance to Farage's tune?

[Helen Beard]

The other party have decided as a whole, all of us, that we won't be standing a candidate in the ballot.

[Count Bin Face]

You won't be.

[Helen Beard]

We won't be standing a candidate. The other party's a chicken. Suggested one of his closest lieutenants on gbbs.

[Max Rushton]

Let's start with your reaction

[Count Bin Face]

here.

[Nigel Farage]

The chickens and the cowards clucking away. Honestly, I mean, these people.

[Helen Beard]

But why did Farage really step down and could it backfire? From the Guardian, I'm Helen Pitt. Today in Focus, Farage's latest gamble. Ben Quinn, welcome back to Today in Focus. I say welcome because actually, this is the second time we've talked this week, isn't it?

[Ben Quinn]

It is. We're having a second go. Things are moving so swiftly this week.

[Helen Beard]

Yeah. And so you are a political correspondent at the Guardian. And we had a lovely plan, didn't we, that this week we were going to put out an episode looking at whether Reform UK Farage's party had peaked. And that episode will sadly remain on the cutting room floor now because it's just been overtaken so comprehensively by events. And can we just start by you telling me you have followed Farage around for years. Were you surprised at the stunt he pulled on Tuesday?

[Ben Quinn]

Yes and no. In some ways it was unexpected. You just don't expect an MP to step aside like this. And we're talking about someone who's spent their entire career trying to get elected to Parliament. But at the same time, it was also classic Farage, this sort of a rabbit out of the hat and to try and distract, distort and also take the initiative.

[Helen Beard]

Again, we'll talk in a bit about the tactics behind his resignation. But can we just start by recapping the various scandals that have been swirling around Farage in recent. And the main two involve two very rich men. Can you tell me about them?

[Ben Quinn]

So the pressure Nigel Farage has been under really relates to a 5 million pound payment which was made to him, a gift which was given to him and which the Guardian revealed and which he did not declare. And that came from Christopher Harborne, who's a Thai based crypto billionaire and a donor to Reform.

[Helen Beard]

Quite a bit of breaking news to bring you. It stands the leader of Reform uk.

[Reporter]

I understand that Nigel Farage is now facing an investigation by the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards, Daniel Greenberg. He was asked to investigate a couple of weeks ago after news about the Gift, as before, UK would have termed it, from Christopher Harborne.

[Ben Quinn]

Secondly, the other individual is someone who has been at Nigel Farage's side for many, many years. George Cottrell, AKA Posh George, a young, publicly school educated minor aristocrat who, you know, variously has been described as Nigel Farage's bag man and, you know, his advisor.

[Helen Beard]

Yeah, and George Cottrell is a very interesting character for a number of reasons. He has said that he calls Farage daddy. They're so close. And the most important thing to know about George Cotterell is that he's a convicted criminal, isn't he? He and Farage, just after the Brexit referendum in 2016, were on a plane in the US when he was arrested as he got off the plane. And then he spent a number of months in a federal prison, didn't he? What did he do?

[Ben Quinn]

I believe the US term is wire fraud. He was detained by the authorities, the FBI were, and he did serve time. George Cotterell faced 20 years in jail for 21 counts relating to money laundering, fraud, blackmail and extortion. But he eventually brokered a plea deal. He admitted guilt to a charge of wire fraud and he ended up serving just eight months in prison. Reportedly some sort of deal was done and he's now back in the UK and by all kinds actually angling maybe for a pardon which would allow him to go back to the us. But he's someone who hasn't been shy about actually actually talking on his own terms about his wrongdoing. He's co authored a book with someone else, literally, called how to Launder Money, and in that he talked about that episode as well.

[Helen Beard]

And of course, being friends with a convicted criminal is not an offence. What is he alleged to have provided forage with? Why is it a problem, potentially?

[Ben Quinn]

There's been a lot of rumours and a lot of lines of inquiry which multiple people have been investigating in relation to Cottrell. But the Sunday Times really moved things on at the weekend which has just passed with a report where they drew together a lot of these THR.

[Anna Isaacs]

So in the summer of 2023, we know that Cottrell recruited staff and security for Farage, Also that he was allowing him to make use of his five story townhouse just a stone's throw from Westminster. I think that there's definitely a case that these rules have been broken.

[Ben Quinn]

So this is support which Cottrell has reportedly been providing. And the key thing is national. Farage did not declare this support from George Cottrell in the way that he apparently did not declare the gift from Christopher Harborne as well.

[Helen Beard]

And Forge has changed his story somewhat on that gift from Christopher Harborne. He seemed to suggest that it was a reward for his campaigning on Brexit. He's now saying that it was for his personal security, but that he didn't need to declare it because he wasn't an MP at the time. It was a few months before he became an mp. And he says similar to explain the gifts from George Cottrell too. But I guess it's not just the fact that he's accepted these gifts and not declared them. Right. But there's also the question of whether they, these two rich guys may get anything in return when it comes particularly to their interest in cryptocurrency. Because Cottrell was big into crypto as well, wasn't he?

[Ben Quinn]

We in the Guardian reported that Farage was trying to block, for example, a Bank of England cryptocurrency plan. That could be costly for Harbour and for the billionaire who was bankrolling reform.

[Helen Beard]

Yeah. And I think more generally, Farage has been a very enthusia proponent for crypto over the years. He would say, well, I think it's the future and it's Completely irrelevant. Harbor and indeed Cottrell have always just suggested that their support had no strings attached up until this week. How much do you think Farage was at risk of losing the narrative? How precarious a moment was all of this becoming for him?

[Ben Quinn]

Well, it was becoming really precarious because he has essentially not been seen in public very much and he hasn't been given these press conferences which we in the pretty much used to. Every week he'd come and take questions. He's the man that will take all the questions from everyone. And all of a sudden, just in recent months, there's been this shift where he addresses the voters, he addresses everybody else, mainly through these sort of video statements which are put out on reform social media channels. So he's on the run, it would seem, and he's reluctant to take questions about the five million pound gift from Harborne. And it has also created the image that he's not really a man of the people again, that this is a. A is in league with the elite. You know, even when he was questioned about the £5 million from Harborne, he's become very ratty in at least one radio interview.

[Nigel Farage]

It's an unconditional gift. I can spend it on Ferraris if I want. That'd be entirely up to me. Why did you say it was a personal security then? Because it was given as an unconditional gift.

[Ben Quinn]

That's not exactly the kind of thing you want to be saying if you're the leader of an insurgent party of the people.

[Helen Beard]

Yeah. And you even had somebody like Dr. David Ball, who at least at some point has been the chair of Reform uk, saying, I think not. Nigel needs to have a bit of a rest.

[Nigel Farage]

The other things I would say to him as a friend and a colleague is he needs to take some time out and have a bit of a break, really.

[Helen Beard]

I mean, that's the kind of talk you would not have heard a couple of months ago. And you speak to a lot of Reform members, a lot of Reform officials before Tuesday. How united a party was it behind Farage?

[Ben Quinn]

Overwardly quite united. The thing about Nigel Farage led enterprises is that they always do seem to fall apart under some sort of divisions and people fall out within. They leave. You know, there's this long list of people from Rupert Lowe through to Ben Habib and many others. So one of the things Nigel Farage said at the close of one of their most recent big events last year, where lots of members were there, was, please keep your divisions amongst yourself. Let's try not to have our arguments in public, but try as they may, this sort of stuff just does come out. And clearly we can see from some of the, shall we say, discussions that we are aware of among reform members at a grassroots level, they're worried, they feel that the 5 million pound gift is cutting through. They don't like how it looks and they're not really happy with how it's been dealt with. And then you have, at the very top of a reform, clearly very ambitious people like Richard Tice, who used to be leader of Reform before he had to step aside to allow Farage to come back. And then you have someone like Suala Braverman and also Robert Genre, both who left stroke, were chucked out of the Tories because of their own conspiracies and their own machinations to take over that party. And now they find themselves in reform. So not a very happy ship in a lot of ways.

[Helen Beard]

And you know, that Christopher Harborne story, that £5 million, it's just not going away. He's been asked about it many, many times in his increasingly rare public appearances. And even on Tuesday, the day that he gave his address, gave his statement, our colleague Anna Isaacs published a story. Anna, of course, was the one who broke the Harborne story in the first place. But she wrote that some bankers had reported Harborne's 5 million donation to the National Crime Agency over concerns of money laundering. We should say that Farage has said that he has no reason to doubt the ultimate source of the money. But on the statement itself, for those of us who were not glued to the live stream, how did he justify his decision to quit as an MP and stand in a by election?

[Nigel Farage]

No, I've decided that the people of Clapton should be the judges of my actions. This will be a people versus the establishment by election.

[Ben Quinn]

He presents this by election as a people versus the establishment. This was Nigel Farage going beyond the parliamentary authorities who are scrutinizing him and going directly to the people, the ultimate arbiters of whether people are fit to be MPs or not.

[Nigel Farage]

It's a chance to stick two fingers up to the entire establishment, to frankly tell them where to go.

[Helen Beard]

And in this speech, he talked quite a lot, didn't he, about media intrusion, particularly involving his daughter. What did he say and how justified do you think he was in the allegations that he was making?

[Ben Quinn]

So he made a number of allegations. He said that there were things which people were unaware of. For example, he said there had been an event at a pub where a quote Mob came in and he had to, to leave with his family. His car, he says, was written off. He says he chose not to sort of pursue that at the time because he didn't want to draw attention to it. And then he made various allegations about what he said was the harassment of his daughter, who he said is someone he's never brought into the public domain.

[Nigel Farage]

Let me be clear. I will not tolerate intimidation of my family. I will not tolerate the location of where they live being revealed. I will not tolerate any of my family being endangered because of what I choose to do in public life.

[Helen Beard]

And yeah, he was particularly unhappy, wasn't he, about a photograph that was published in the Times of his daughter's house? But it's probably worth saying that this is a house that he's owned for quite a long time. There was a Tory MP who pointed out on X he had dug up a number of photos that Farage himself had posed for outside this house, in which the house name or number was not pixelated. And so much of the speech was actually, it seemed to me, him justifying his ever growing bank balance. And he said that the 5 million pound gift from Harborne was just like winning the lottery. And he made a big thing about Labour having no successful business people in the Labour Cabinet. Let's interrogate a bit Farazi's claim to be a successful businessman. How much of his money would you say is the fruits of his labour as a business person rather than the result of him exploiting his position as a politician and the public profile that comes with that?

[Ben Quinn]

Yeah, I mean, he said that he had to leave behind what was going to be a lucrative career in the city and he was a metals trader and he says he's made very little money since then because he had to essentially sacrifice this career.

[Helen Beard]

And this is more than 30 years ago, let's be fair. It's a long time ago, isn't it?

[Ben Quinn]

Yes.

[Helen Beard]

And in the interim, he's earned millions of euros as a parliamentarian in the European Parliament and now draws his MP salary.

[Ben Quinn]

Yeah. He says he essentially had to sacrifice his career in the best interests of the British people. And he had this list of things which he's been able to do since then. He said he's been an influencer, he said he's promoted various products, you know, namely gold.

[Nigel Farage]

So why am I hooking up with direct bully? Well, let me tell you one thing, an old fashioned service. You can actually talk to people on the telephone, would you think?

[Ben Quinn]

And he says people have done all right those who followed him into it.

[Helen Beard]

He has earned £270,000 for that, the single biggest payment he's registered since becoming an mp.

[Ben Quinn]

So he feels that he has a right to make this money because it's money that he hasn't actually, you know, been able to make and would otherwise have made. And there's been a lot of lucrative speaking engagements in the us, you know, where he's been sought after, principally because of his political role as well. So it's been the political role which has made him a figure in demand. I mean, that's even before we get to all the. The cameo videos he's been recording, where, you know, he pay him a few quid and he'll say, up the Iraq.

[Helen Beard]

And he said that this by election is going to be him versus the establishment. And yet all the other parties, if you consider them to be the establishment, have said that they're not playing. How did they explain their decision, their rationale behind not getting involved in this by election? And do you think that Farage will be disappointed?

[Ben Quinn]

I think you might be surprised that this has happened. Reform's Home affairs spokesperson, Zia Yousef did say that, you know, it's something that they had gamed, but you do get the impression they've been taken by surprise. Rupert Lowe's Restored Britain, the hard right party, which is set up in opposition to Reform, we're going to first out of the traps. Very early on Tuesday, after Farage said he was triggering the by election to say they wouldn't be dancing to Farage's tune, as it were, and wouldn't be standing. And then that was followed by the Lib Dems and the Tories.

[Rupert Lowe]

I mean, what I saw was a man who was cracking under the pressure. He went on telly having a hissy fit, because for the first time he is finally having to face some scrutiny after a very long honeymoon and he cannot handle it.

[Ben Quinn]

Kimmy Bednock said she would be eager for a Tory candidate to stand in the second byelection, as she put it, the one that could be triggered if the standards authorities do then find against Nigel Farage and he has to face a recall by election. And then we had Labour shortly after that. Then we had the Greens for a little while. It did look like it could be a populist versus populist by election in Clacton. Perhaps the Greens would go for it, but they've obviously had a lot of discussions about it. And if for whatever reason, the optics are one thing, no doubt even for them, they're not going for it. So it's really just at the moment set up as a sort of a standoff between Farage and Count Bin Face.

[Helen Beard]

Yeah, exactly.

[Ben Quinn]

I'm sure he'll hate to be called a novelty candidate, but, you know, that's how other people describe him. Although he's got pretty serious policies. So I'm assuming from that that you are going to be sparse when it

[Count Bin Face]

comes to policy prom.

How dare you. I've got a full and costed manifesto, Justin. I mean, some of my national policies will remain. I pledge to build at least one affordable house. I will nationalize Adele and I'll make water bosses have to take a dip in British rivers to see how they like it. I'll price cap 99 flakes at 99 pence.

[Ben Quinn]

And just. Just actually, as we were about to speak, Helen, a message came through to say the writ has been moved on that by election. So it's game on there between Count Bin Face and Farage.

[Helen Beard]

Yeah. And what is the point of a byelection if your main opponent is a man with a bin on his head?

[Ben Quinn]

Yeah. So was the point is for Farage to show that he's a man of the people? The point is to romp home with a massive majority. Or that would have been the original aim. But as it were now, can you actually foresee a situation where all those Tory voters, all the labor voters, all the people to the left of all of those parties and even maybe disillusioned former Farage voters not either decide to stay at home or actually to vote for Count Bin Face? And what will turnout be like? Will it be pretty low? And then the issue of the cost, I mean, it's. It's going to be quite costly.

[Helen Beard]

It's around quarter of a million pounds, isn't it? Something like that. At least to run a by election.

[Ben Quinn]

Yeah. And Reform have said they will pay for that again, but the optics of it are really quite skewed now. But the awkward thing is, if. If this does come to it, then, and it looks like it will, on the night of the by election result, you're going to have on stage at Tendering District Nigel Farage with his turquoise rosette on and a man wearing a bin standing beside him. And for all we know, maybe half a dozen people in minion costumes as well, who are also running.

[Helen Beard]

Yeah. A few of the retention seekers will probably throw their hat in the ring, as they did when David Davies, the Tory mp, resigned and then stood in his own by election back in 2008. And in terms of the investigations into him that the Parliamentary Standards Commissioner is carrying out. Am I right in understanding that basically he just sort of presses pause on those while Farage is not an mp, and then he'll just carry them on as soon as. If as expected, Farage wins this byelection.

[Ben Quinn]

Yeah, that's right. So the investigation is suspended during the by election and then it just can start up again. I think what reform are banking on is that when that finding comes along, that MPs will not want to, on their committee, do anything to initiate another by election and put the people of Clacton through yet another by election. And reformer banking on the people of Clacton being fed up towards those MPs rather than being fed up with reform and Farage for having triggered this first by election.

[Helen Beard]

Yeah, I feel quite sorry for voters in that constituency in particular, because they've been through this before, haven't they, back in 2014? The constituency had a different name in those days, but it was essentially the same. They had a Tory MP called Douglas Carswell who defected to Ukip and he did what he said was the honourable thing, which was that he called a by election so that the electorate could decide if they wanted a UKIP mp and they did indeed choose him. And then ever since July 2024, Clacton has been the backdrop to the Nigel Farage show. I mean, he's got a lot of fans there still, hasn't he? But there might be a lot of people thinking, oh, come on.

[Ben Quinn]

Yeah. And again, you know, some place like Clacton is a place which is one where people also do feel forgotten about. They've got local issues. There's a hospital which people are eager for unfinished business to be done there. You know, you've got areas of massive deprivation, like the Jwick ward in Clacton, and it's a place where there's a lot of local issues. The demographic is one which is slightly older and poorer than London, certainly. And it's one thing to be a place which is in the national spotlight, but it's another thing in your day to day life feeling that not being looked after in terms of those slightly more banal things which are absolutely necessary in everyone's life.

[Helen Beard]

Coming up, is there a risk that Farage just ends up looking a bit daft?

[Max Rushton]

England are still in the usa and so are we. Join me, Max Rushton and a host of football experts as we overanalyze every game, every day at the World cup, including England's forthcoming quarterfinal against Norway. It's Haaland versus Gay. It's Herring versus Cod, It's Vikings versus Agonising tragic failure. The Guardians World Cup Daily available wherever

[Ben Quinn]

you get your podcasts.

[Helen Beard]

And you said that Farage will probably be a bit disappointed that the other parties have said that they're not going to contest the by election. But he loves campaigning. Do you think that he'll be happy taking maybe a little bit of the spotlight away from the first six weeks of Andy Burnham's premiership?

[Ben Quinn]

I mean, that's the idea. At the same time, summertime is the time that Reform really liked to be busy and they had been saying that they were preparing some shock and awe type events during the summer. They like to use the summertime as a period when they can show or try to show to the public that they're actually an active party and they'll claim, you know, the other MPs are done selling themselves down in the south of France. So Farage will be probably ready for another campaign and he's going to have to walk around for. Around Clacton and probably have the media trailing after them as well, asking awkward questions. And after that, he potentially then faces the prospect of another by election later in the year, if the Standards investigation then triggers that. So it's kind of by election without end in Clacton.

[Helen Beard]

And you said earlier on in our conversation that reform in recent months has not been the happiest of ships. Do you think we're going to see them all now row in behind Farage? I mean, there was quite an astonishing interview that Richard Tice gave on GB News on Tuesday night in what would have been Nigel Farage's regular show. But he's not been appearing on this show for a while. And he began this interview by clucking like a chicken, basically saying, the establishment is running scared. Do you think the rest of the party is going to really get behind him and the activists as well?

[Ben Quinn]

Yeah, I mean, I think people will show their face there, you know, particularly Lee Anderson and Richard Tice. He'll have to make the track there as well. They all will. But at the same time, there's things that they want and need to be getting on with. And actually, just in recent times, opponents of Reform have been pointing out or alleging that actually maybe national Farage is a bit of a drag on Reform's support or particularly its intention to try and break through the ceiling beyond Reform voters into Reform. Curious voters. And they've been saying the polling they've seen shows Nigel Farage kind of polling two or three points behind Reform. And he's a marmite figure, isn't he? I mean, people either love him or they detest him. You know, in a political sense.

[Helen Beard]

Yeah. And there are way more people in Britain who do not like him than like him. The latest poll from YouGov found that Farage is seen unfavourably by 65% of Britons, compared with 25% who like him. And although Reform is still topping the polls, their support does seem to be on a downward trajectory as Labour gains a burn and bounce and Kemi Badenoch is getting Iraq together. And let's not forget they've lost four by elections in a row.

[Count Bin Face]

Victory for Plyde Cymru after a bruising by election battle with Nigel Farage's Reform

[Guardian Announcer]

UK Green Party has won the Gorton and Denton by election overnight, with Reform coming in second.

[Helen Beard]

The Scottish Conservatives have won the formerly

[Guardian Announcer]

safe SMP seat of Aberdeen South, a

[Count Bin Face]

resounding victory here for Andy Burnham, winning by more than 9,000 votes, and easily beat the combined total of Nigel Farage's Reform UK and Rupert Lowe's Restore Britain.

[Helen Beard]

And let's talk about what might happen next. So it sounds like you think that Farage will win the by election potentially on a very low turnout. But let's see, can you imagine a scenario where all of this backfires? Because it seems to me that he wanted this big by election moment to say, look, I've beaten the big parties again. The voters don't care about however million pounds I have been gifted by mysterious billionaires living in Thailand. But by them not taking part, they've kind of taken the sting out of the thing, haven't they? And is there the risk that he just looks self aggrandizing and silly?

[Ben Quinn]

Yeah, that's the risk, isn't it? It looks like he is showboating and basically engaged in this sort of selfish stunt. Basically. Do people care about this? His narrative, the one that he wants to try and project, is that his opponents are chickens. The establishment's running away from him and he's been persecuted by the media. But at the same time, it's the Nigel Farage show again. At the end of the pier you wonder, is there a point at which people become fed up with that?

[Helen Beard]

Well, Ben, it's going to be an interesting summer. Thank you very much for joining us again.

[Ben Quinn]

Thank you, Anne.

[Helen Beard]

That was Ben Quinn. You can read all of his reporting on Nigel farage@the guardian.com we of course will be keeping tabs on the by election too. And that is all for today.

[Guardian Announcer]

Today.

[Helen Beard]

This episode was produced by Natalie Katana and Tom Glasser and presented by me, Helen Beard. Sound design was by Brian McNamara and the executive producer was Sammy Kent. We'll be back in your feeds later today with the latest.

[Guardian Announcer]

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[Rupert Lowe]

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