Podcast Summary
Podcast: Today in Focus
Episode: Oscars 2026: who should win… and who actually will? – The Latest
Date: March 13, 2026
Hosts: Lucy Hough (A), Catherine Shoard, Guardian Film Editor (B)
Episode Overview
This episode of "The Latest," the evening edition of Today in Focus, dives into the heated race leading up to the 2026 Oscars. Host Lucy Hough is joined by Guardian Film Editor Catherine Shoard to discuss the frontrunners, the influence of PR gaffes, historic trends, and the broader relevance of the Academy Awards. The discussion focuses on the two leading films—Sinners and One Battle After Another—and examines whether the Oscars reward artistic merit or effective award campaigning.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. The State of the Race: Sinners vs. One Battle After Another
- Oscars Campaigns as Performances
- Catherine highlights, "Everything leading up to the Oscars is an audition for the Oscars." (00:11)
- The campaign trail this year has been unusually volatile due to last-minute rules and incidents.
- New Voter Verification Rule
- For the first time, Oscar voters must prove they’ve watched nominated films.
"You can't literally… click that one until you've sort of shown that you've watched the others. So that means a huge flurry of late votes." (01:40)
- Last three weeks became crucial; late-breaking events had heightened significance.
- For the first time, Oscar voters must prove they’ve watched nominated films.
2. Award Ceremonies and Controversies
- Sinners swept the SAG Awards (now "The Actors Awards"), notably picking up Best Ensemble and Best Actor for Michael B. Jordan.
- One Battle After Another triumphed at the BAFTAs.
- A notable BAFTAs incident:
- A Tourette's campaigner shouted the N-word while Sinners' leads Michael B. Jordan and Delroy Lindo presented an award.
- Catherine: “Jordan and Lindo sort of handled that with such dignity and poise and presence and it sort of renewed the topicality of the film." (02:44)
- This incident unexpectedly pushed Sinners and Delroy Lindo further into the Oscar conversation.
3. Public Gaffes and PR Mishaps
- PR blunders heavily influence Oscar chances.
- Example: Timothée Chalamet’s negative comments on ballet and opera ahead of voting.
"Had the opera thing come out a couple of days earlier, it absolutely would have totaled his chances. Actually, I still think he's not going to get it because he's so marmite as a person." (04:59)
- Jessie Buckley’s comments about not liking her boyfriend’s cats also sparked a social media firestorm. Catherine jokes:
"The cats have to take some of the blame there, I think... I mean, I can imagine that that's true. That tracks. Yeah, it would be really annoying." (06:18)
4. Oscars, Merit, and Industry Politics
- The Oscars remain a campaign-driven affair rather than a pure measure of artistic merit.
- Young stars are valued for bringing in younger viewers, but the Academy tends to favor older winners:
"They do tend to err on the side of older people winning. So [Chalamet's] 30 now… Michael B. Jordan is 39. That feels a much more age appropriate thing." (05:40)
- Jessie Buckley is favored for Best Actress for Hamnet due to a lack of strong competitors.
5. Historical and Social Significance
- The Oscars are at a "tipping point":
- Sinners has a record 16 nominations (02:44).
- Catherine warns of the optics if Ryan Coogler (Sinners director) doesn’t win Best Director, given no Black person has ever done so:
"Remember, no black person has ever won Best director at the Oscars, which is quite something… it would be a terrible look for them to give Sinners Best Picture and him not win Best Director." (08:04)
- The counterpoint is Paul Thomas Anderson's overdue Oscar, but Catherine feels he’ll win Best Adapted Screenplay instead.
6. Audience Engagement & The Oscars’ Relevance
- Viewership has waned since the Titanic era. Now, the Oscars feel more insular.
"It's certainly much more true now than it was 20 years ago… 60 million people would watch the Oscars because lots of people cared about Titanic… the amount of money that Titanic made compared to say, Nomadland in 2021… is quite, quite stark." (09:28)
- Actors rarely thank fans in speeches—seen as further evidence the Oscars serve industry self-congratulation.
7. Final Predictions and Reflections
- Sinners is "clearly the right film this year and it probably will win. It doesn't mean it's the best film… It's very rare that the best film will win the Oscars.” (10:54)
- Catherine personally didn’t favor either of the frontrunners particularly.
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- “Everything leading up to the Oscars is an audition for the Oscars.” — Catherine Shoard (00:11)
- [On the N-word BAFTAs incident] “Jordan and Lindo handled that with such dignity and poise… it sort of renewed the topicality of the film in an inadvertent way.” — Catherine Shoard (02:44)
- “To not give him [Coogler] Best Director would be terrible… No black person has ever won Best director at the Oscars.” — Catherine Shoard (08:04)
- “It doesn't mean it's the best film or anything like that. It's very rare that the best film will win the Oscars.” — Catherine Shoard (10:54)
- “Actors are very much more than, say, musicians or something like that. They're incredibly guarded. They’re incredibly on message. They don't really ever say anything interesting in interviews.” — Catherine Shoard (09:28)
Key Timestamps
- 00:11 — Oscars hype and campaign dynamics
- 01:22 — Voter verification rule and impact on voting
- 02:23 — Background on Sinners and One Battle After Another
- 02:44 — BAFTAs N-word incident and its impact
- 04:59 — How PR gaffes shape Oscar outcomes
- 05:40 — Age dynamics and the Academy's voter preferences
- 06:18 — Jessie Buckley's "cat" controversy
- 07:14 — Are the best films being rewarded?
- 08:04 — Historical context: lack of Black Best Director winners
- 09:28 — Oscars’ declining cultural relevance
- 10:54 — Final take: Oscars rarely award the year’s best film
Tone
Conversational, witty, and critical; both speakers blend industry insight with humor and skepticism about Hollywood politics and the true meaning of Oscar wins.
Summary for the Uninitiated
If you missed this episode, you’ll come away understanding the key contenders for the 2026 Oscars, how behind-the-scenes campaigning and last-minute controversies have shaped the race, and the ongoing debate over artistic merit versus PR optics. Catherine Shoard’s candid analysis dismantles the idea of Oscars as a pure arbiter of film greatness, spotlighting both the mechanics and the ironies of awards season.