Lucy Hoff (2:45)

Yeah, this, this total shift away from the Tory labor era of two party politics.

Alexander Chopping (2:50)

I mean, we're talking about places at the moment that have been labor forever. Yeah. You know, like you've got Wigan. It's like if Wigan isn't a Labor stronghold, if it's not where people will just a goat turns up on the ballot paper and everybody votes Labour, you know, then the political landscape really has shifted. And but I just think we don't know quite yet where that shift is going to land.

Lucy Hoff (3:15)

So in terms of the numbers where we are at one o' clock on Friday, labor down over 320 seats and gains for reform of an astronomical 470 that's expected to rise. And we are speaking about just England at the moment. We haven't got counts yet for Scotland and Wales. So you mentioned Wigan, where Reform have won every seat possible. It was possible to win there. That is the seat of Lisa Nandy, who is in the cabinet as Culture Secretary. There's been, you know, real changes around the seats of Angela Rayner, Jonathan Reynolds, these kind of, as you say, real Labour, former Labour strongholds, which is really worrying for the next general election. But where else has been interesting? What can we look at?

Alexander Chopping (4:01)

I mean, we've also seen reform clear up in Hartlepool, which is interesting, very Dudley, places like that. In the West Midlands, they've been having a very strong showing. The Northeast has proved rich ground as well. In Manchester, labor retained control of the council, but there's been lots of losses across there as well. I don't think there's anywhere in the country really that doesn't really feel like it is turning more reform than it has been in the past. But it's really interesting actually, because Peter Kalner, you know, very well informed commentator on this, formerly of YouGov, he's been writing a really interesting substat this morning saying that even though this looks disastrous and for labor and in many, many counts, it already is. But he says that actually if he was reformed then he'd be a bit worried at the moment because even though they're gaining like about a thousand seats so far or something, something along those lines, last year in any local elections that were happening, they were gaining about 41% of any seats that they were contesting, and that has leveled off at the moment at about 30, 33%. So there might be this sense that something that we've been talking about on a kind of national level over the. Rather than the local picture, that this kind of. Is reform hitting its ceiling.

Lucy Hoff (5:27)

Yeah.

Alexander Chopping (5:28)

Even though labor have had, you know, really quite catastrophic results, there is this sense it might not bottom out quite as catastrophically as they'd laid the ground for.

Lucy Hoff (5:39)

And they have been working very hard to lay the ground, not least in Wales, where they're expected to have this historic loss. Welsh Labour has been in charge in the Senate since devolution in 1999. Labour has been clear that they are expected to lose there, but, I mean,

Alexander Chopping (5:56)

they're not even counting in Wales. And Welsh Labour have already said we're not going to be forming the next Senate.

Lucy Hoff (6:01)

So, yeah, I think there is a

Alexander Chopping (6:03)

real sense of resignation. Overwhelming defeat in Welsh Labour at the moment that they are not going to be carrying the Labour flag over there.

Lucy Hoff (6:13)

Yeah. And also Scotland, where John Sweeney and the SNP are expected to hold on. But Labour, again, on this issue of expectation management, they've been sort of rolling this figure of 1500 seats would be the kind of expectation this morning. When I was listening to pollsters, they were saying actually it could look something like 1800, but the way things are now playing out, it looks more like 1200, which is, you know, know, still bad for Labour.

Alexander Chopping (6:39)

Completely disastrous. Not quite as disastrous as it could

Lucy Hoff (6:43)

be, but perhaps buys Keir Starmer a little bit more time. And he has been speaking this morning saying he insists he's gonna press on.

Alexander Chopping (6:51)

Yes, he looked a bit sad this morning, didn't he?

Lucy Hoff (6:53)

He looked a bit sad. But privately, and perhaps in number 10, this is.

Alexander Chopping (6:59)

Well, I think what was clear was he was quite bullish that these calls that we've been hearing in the background that he must set a timetable for leaving. There was absolutely no sign that he. That this morning he was bullish. He's. He's very much giving the message that he's going to be there for the long term. Obviously, it's not necessarily his choice, but there's no sense at the moment that he's going to roll over. And I think in number 10, they won't be in pure panic mode just yet, because while there has been voices calling for him to leave this morning, they're kind of the same voices we always hear. So those on the labor left got the MP for Hartlepool going Saying that he should leave. Jonathan Brash. He just saw his wife lose her council seat and lose a local election, so he was probably feeling a bit sore. But the voices at the moment seem to be the same voices that we have already heard calling for Starmer to step down. There was a report in the Times that Ed Miliband has called for Starmer to set a timetable to leave. That's not necessarily what we're hearing in our office. So, you know, there's lots of rumours swirling around Westminster, as you can imagine, at this moment. But, you know, there are other members of the Cabinet, like David Lammy this morning, who come out fighting for the

Lucy Hoff (8:14)

Prime Minister with this slightly strange metaphor of you don't change the pilot while the flight is in motion, which is, number one, I don't think really stacks up as a metaphor. And B is absolutely terrifying for anyone who has a fear of flying.

Alexander Chopping (8:28)

I was making the toast this morning. I was like, this is a really bad analogy. I mean, what if the pilot's having a heart attack? What if the pilot's taken really ill or just can't fly the plane anymore? Please change the pilot. So, yeah, I'm not sure that one works, but his message was at least

Lucy Hoff (8:45)

clear that continuity is important.

Alexander Chopping (8:47)

Continuity is important. But it wasn't rousing, was it? It wasn't a rousing endorsement of this is the right person for the job. It is. There isn't anybody else at the moment.

Lucy Hoff (8:56)

So let's talk about the Greens, because they have had this really symbolic victory that will be a huge victory for them in Hackney. Zach Polanski has been speaking this morning, obviously very excited, and there's much more to come in terms of the target seats that they're hoping to win this afternoon. But. But Zach Valencia's had a bruising couple of weeks. There's been some really negative stories about whether he misspoke when he said he was spokesperson for the Red Cross. He since admitted he was. He was wrong to say that he was. There's also been the same sort of issues of anti Semitism that dogged Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party, that have now dogged Polanski's Green Party in the wake of the Golden Screen attack. Has that had any impact, do you think, on. On the way people have voted?

Alexander Chopping (9:44)

I think there's two things going. The Greens have been polling really high for them on a national level, but we have a first past the post system and that does not favor minor parties. Now, what we're seeing at the moment, so far is that Labour are losing seats to Reform, but they're losing votes to the Green Party. But that Green vote is spread a little bit too evenly across the country for them to be making major gains. I think, so far, Green Party strategists will be disappointed in their showing, even though they have, like you said, have this very. This big victory in Hackney. And we may see more in those mayoral contests as we go forward, but they really do feel like unless they can be more canny about where they target their votes, then you might just see them gaining a lot more votes, not gaining a lot more seats. But this is obviously terrible news for Keir Starmer's Labour Party, because they'll be losing votes both to the right and to the left. So if you think about that, in. In the 2004 general election, you had the Labour Party on a relatively low vote share, gaining a lot of seats in this huge majority because it went through the middle of a split right, you know, went through the middle of reform and the Conservatives. And what Starmer is now facing is a kind of splitting of that progressive vote.

Lucy Hoff (11:10)

Yeah.

Alexander Chopping (11:11)

So people who may have voted labor because they wanted to keep out the right are now thinking, I'm not sure the best place to put my vote.

Lucy Hoff (11:18)

And a very, very strong reform UK vote, where a lot of Tories, a lot of Labour voters seem to have made their decision about supporting.

Alexander Chopping (11:26)

And I think you can't underestimate the reform machine, because what insurgent parties tend to lack is the mechanics, and that's why local government is so important. That's why it matters so much, because that is where you build your scaffolding for your national party, and that is exactly what Reform are doing at the moment.

Lucy Hoff (11:46)

So it feels like, Lex, from what we've been discussing, that Starmer's bought himself a little bit of time, but we know that many in his party feel that his days are numbered and it's a question of when, not if. The name that keeps coming up is Andy Burnham, who was blocked from standing as an MP earlier this year, but has made his ambitions clear that he does intend to find a seat somewhere. What do you think's likely to happen?

Alexander Chopping (12:12)

I mean, the people I've talked to about it think that they're pretty confident that there will be a. There will be a seat somewhere for him if he wants it. But it's not uncomplicated. I mean, if you look at the MPs who have seats around the Manchester area, you're not 100% sure to win a by election if you're Labour at the moment. So, you know, there's a real risk if someone for Labour, if someone steps aside, that you actually, you know, you, you lose the by election. And that's a huge blow for Burnham as, as a candidate, not just because it ob. Stops a path to Westminster, but it also just severely weakens him as a political figure, really. It's difficult to know what's going to happen there. My sense is there will be a seat found somewhere, particularly if Labour can't turn its fortune rounds in polling. And it feels like Starmer would have to do something really dramatic now in order to do that. It doesn't feel like that's on the cards, but there are other people lining up to take that spot. It's just that nobody seems right now ready to jump.

Lucy Hoff (13:21)

Well, Lexi, a fascinating and historic day. It seems a real shifting in our political landscape. Thank you so much.

Alexander Chopping (13:28)

Thanks for having me.

Lucy Hoff (13:31)

That's it for today. My huge thanks again to Alexandra Toppin, Guardian political correspondent. You can keep up with her reporting as well as rolling coverage of the local election results over at the Guardian. And do listen to this evening's episode of our sister podcast, Politics Weekly. Our political editor, Pippa Creer and our policy editor, Kieran Stacey will have more analysis on what we know from the local election results. Before we go, I just wanted to tell you about a new video podcast that our New York office is launching. It's called Stateside with Kai and Carter and it's hosted by our colleagues Kai Wright and Carter Sherman. Each week they're going to be making sense of some of the biggest stories happening right now. The show will feature conversations with some of the smartest thinkers and reporters, not just from the Guardian, but across the world. It's launching on the 13th of May, with episodes every Monday, Wednesday and Friday. You can find it in full video on YouTube and wherever you get your podcasts. Thanks for listening to this episode of the latest Today in Focus will be back in your feeds as usual on Monday morning. The latest will be back on Monday night. This episode was presented by me, Lucy Hoff. It was produced by Annie Levi Esper and Sam Gruy. The lead producer was Zoe Hitch. This is the Guardian.