Trump insists Iran deal close despite strikes – The Latest

Summary

Podcast Summary: ‘Sit back and relax’: Trump insists Iran deal close despite strikes

Podcast: Today in Focus (The Guardian)
Episode: The Latest – June 1, 2026
Host: Lucy Hoff
Guest: Patrick Wintour (The Guardian’s Diplomatic Editor)
Episode length: 10 minutes

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Overview

In this urgent special edition, the Guardian’s diplomatic editor Patrick Wintour joins host Lucy Hoff to unravel the escalating cycle of strikes and diplomatic brinkmanship in the Middle East, amid rapidly intensifying US, Israeli, and Iranian military actions. With President Trump publicly insisting a diplomatic deal with Iran is close, despite clear signs of deepening turmoil, the episode explores the regional and global implications, domestic political pressures, and the looming threat to the fragile ceasefire.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Escalation of Strikes and Regional Tensions

(00:55–04:56)

• Israeli Actions in Lebanon and Beirut:

  • Israel’s military has pushed north to the Litani River, conducting operations into southern Beirut, causing panic and mass evacuations.
  • “There is mass sort of cars rushing to get out. And no one quite knows exactly whether Netanyahu got permission from the Americans to really be active in Beirut.” – Patrick Wintour (01:28)
  • Over 3,000 killed; about 20% of Lebanon’s population evacuated.

• Hezbollah’s Changing Role:

  • Hezbollah is seen as diminished, described now almost as a guerilla army, but still posing a real threat through drones and missiles.

• Iran’s Stance:

  • Iran has repeatedly declared that any ceasefire must be comprehensive—across all fronts, including Lebanon and Iran itself.
  • The tone from Iranian officials has become “more threatening,” warning of consequences if the ceasefire is violated (02:41).

• Cycle of Strikes:

  • US airstrikes on southern Iran over the weekend; Iran responding with counterstrikes on Kuwait (a significant US ally with major US military assets); heightened tensions and fears of further escalation.

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2. Fragility of the Ceasefire & Risk of Broader War

(04:04–04:56)

• Multiple "minor" breaches of the ceasefire have occurred, but both the US and Iran seem averse to all-out war, preferring managed escalation.
• “If [the breaches] continue, the argument the Americans are making that these are acts of self-defense becomes difficult to sustain.” – Patrick Wintour (04:33)
• The conflict is increasingly hard to contain, with simultaneous crises in Lebanon, Iran, and Kuwait.

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3. Trump’s Position and Domestic Pressures

(04:56–06:45)

• Trump’s Public Messaging:

  • Facing criticism even from traditional Republican allies, Trump took to Truth Social urging, “Sit back and relax…the deal is close.”
  • “That’s perhaps easier for him [Trump] to say than others involved in this conflict.” – Lucy Hoff (05:28)
  • Wintour is skeptical, noting past failures of similar optimism: “The more he talks in those terms, the more you realize he really needs to get a solution to this.” (05:36)

• Failed Deals and Political Dilemmas:

  • There was a “deal” announced after discussions with French President Macron, but it fell apart internally in the US administration:
    • “…after [a] two-hour meeting in the Situation Room…they realized that the deal that agreed to is, was completely not going to work internally politically. So now they've gone back and reopened issues.” – Patrick Wintour (06:33)

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4. Economic Pressures & Oil Market Fears

(06:45–07:44)

• Warnings from oil industry leaders like “the deputy chairman of Exxon” about imminent supply shocks:
  • “We are two to three weeks away when our inventories are going to run down seriously and then we're looking at oil prices of like $150 a barrel.” – Patrick Wintour (06:45)
• The urgency of negotiations is driven by these economic risks, with a “clock ticking” that could force hasty or inadequate deals.

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5. Situation Inside Iran: Distrust & Economic Crisis

(07:44–09:03)

• Distrust of the US and Trump:
  • Iranian negotiators repeatedly emphasize “distrust” in public statements, particularly after recent breaches and Trump’s rhetoric.
• Restoration of Internet Access:
  • Iran re-enabled internet access after shutdowns, largely due to mounting political and economic pressure.
• Severe Economic Downturn:
  • Reports of a likely 10% GDP contraction, impending recession, surging unemployment, collapsing living standards, and food inflation over 100%.
• Public and Political Tensions:
  • The Iranian president publicly bracing citizens for "very, very tough decisions ahead."

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6. Outlook for Peace Negotiations

(09:03–10:08)

• Deal Likely to be “Vague” and Deferred:
  • With immense time pressure (not least due to the oil crisis threat), Wintour predicts that “whatever deal there is is quite vague and…defers all some of the more complex issues for later.” (09:30)
  • Key contentious points (like the Strait of Hormuz and the nuclear issue) are likely to be postponed with only a loose agreement.
• Internal and International Saleability:
  • The resulting deal may be hard for Trump to “sell” both at home and abroad.

Memorable Quote:

"If the pressure is such that they've got to reach a deal, then the way to deal with the conflicts they've got over various things, such as the Strait of Hormuz, is to fudge it really, in essence, and then deal with them later…even you don't publish the memorandum."
— Patrick Wintour (09:30)

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Notable Quotes

• “There is mass sort of cars rushing to get out … the level of attrition of their senior military commanders is now kind of quite remarkable. And the death tolls over 3,000 and evacuations, I think of about 20% of the whole population.” – Patrick Wintour (01:28)
• “It's very difficult from the Iranian perspective just to sit back and watch this happen…there will be a price.” – Patrick Wintour (02:41)
• “The more he [Trump] talks in those terms, the more you realize he really needs to get a solution to this.” – Patrick Wintour (05:36)
• “…we are two to three weeks away when our inventories are going to run down seriously and then we're looking at oil prices of like $150 a barrel.” – Patrick Wintour (06:45)
• “Distrust and trust are the two words they probably use most about the negotiations…” – Patrick Wintour (07:44)
• “I think what you try to do is really leave it as vague as possible and even you don't publish the memorandum.” – Patrick Wintour (09:49)

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Key Timestamps

• 00:55 – Lucy Hoff opens with summary of escalations; Patrick Wintour details Israeli actions in Lebanon.
• 02:41 – Explanation of Iran's all-fronts ceasefire condition; increasing threats.
• 04:04 – US-Iran tit-for-tat strikes and consequences for ceasefire.
• 05:36 – Trump’s positioning and domestic/international struggle for a ‘deal’.
• 06:45 – Economic pressures: warnings of surging oil prices.
• 07:44 – Inside Iran: economic collapse, protests, and regime anxiety.
• 09:30 – Outlook: Any potential deal likely to be vague, with difficult issues deferred.

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Conclusion

This episode provides an urgent, multidimensional look at the mounting crisis surrounding the Iran deal. Through expert analysis and on-the-ground reporting, it details how fragile ceasefires and rising domestic pressures—in both Washington and Tehran—are being compounded by military escalations and economic fears. The outlook is one of deep uncertainty, with both sides under immense pressure to settle for a hasty, incomplete agreement, putting the prospects for real stability in question.

Transcript

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[Patrick Wintour]

I do think there's a clock ticking. And the more he says, here we sit back and relax, something's going to go hysterically wrong. The tensions inside Iran are palpable. It's always been the Iranian position that if there's to be a ceasefire, it's a ceasefire on all fronts. I still think both sides don't want to go back to fully pledged war.

[Lucy Hoff]

From the Guardians today. In focus, this is the latest. With me, Lucy Half. So, Patrick, it's been a week of strikes and counter strikes in the Middle east over the weekend. You, as our diplomatic editor, have been right across this. We've had strikes from the US On Iran, but also counter strikes on Kuwait. But more recently, we have strikes on southern Beirut that's led to mass evacuation orders. What's been going on? Because it's been met by a very strong response from Iran.

[Patrick Wintour]

Yes, I think the Israelis are stepping up all their activity in the Lebanon. They've gone north, the Latani river, which is seen to be the kind of bridge point. And as you say, they're probably now heading into the southern suburbs of Beirut, and there is mass sort of cars rushing to get out. And no one quite knows exactly whether Netanyahu got permission from the Americans to really be active in Beirut. It's certainly influencing and affecting a great deal of what the negotiations about Iran, because the Iranians have always said they will protect Hezbollah. And the level of attrition of their senior military commanders is now kind of quite remarkable. And the death tolls over 3,000 and evacuations, I think of about 20% of the whole population. And I think there's so much pressure now on Iranians to say that they won't permit this to go on and

[Lucy Hoff]

that it would be a violation of what is already a very fragile ceasefire. So there has been this very strong response from Iran. But what is the justification from Israel? What's it sort of up to?

[Patrick Wintour]

Well, the justification from Israel is that they believe Hezbollah have made the life in northern Israel impossible because of the drone attacks and because of the missile launches. I mean, Hezbollah is a reduced organization in comparison with what it was. People have compared it more to a kind of guerrilla army than a sort of terrorist army. But they're still causing a lot of damage and including to death toll of Israeli soldiers. But it's always been the Iranian position that if there's to be a ceasefire, it's a ceasefire on all fronts. And so that means there's a ceasefire in Iran, but there's also a ceasefire in Lebanon. And it's very difficult from the Iranian perspective just to sit back and watch this happen. For instance, the speaker who's the chief negotiator, Gall, has said there will be a price and the foreign minister Arachi has also said ceasefire is required on all fronts and the tone is becoming more threatening.

[Lucy Hoff]

Right. Well that doesn't sound hugely encouraging because we've also had these US Strikes on southern Iran over the weekend. Again, something that puts the ceasefire in real jeopardy. Iran have countered that with strikes on Kuwait, which is a US Ally. It's also home to a number of US Military bases. We've had a very strong response from the Kuwaiti government as well. What are the potential consequences of all of this?

[Patrick Wintour]

Well, I think this is the second or third time there's been this kind of minor breach of the ceasefire, which I call it minor because it hasn't stopped the negotiations continuing about what the final outcome would be. But if they continue, I think it will be the moment they're contained and I think they're understood on both sides, as it were. It's one attack by the Americans, then a reprisal by the Iranians into Kuwait where they say the missiles have come into Iran. If it continues, the argument that the Americans which are making these Iraqs of self defense becomes difficult to sustain. I still think both sides don't want to go back to fully pledged war. But now you've got these problems both in Lebanon and in Kuwait. It's getting more and more fragile.

[Lucy Hoff]

And meanwhile, Trump, as we spoke about last week, is under a lot of domestic pressure. He was criticized by a number of people, ordinary, traditionally very loyal to him, senior Republicans. He's posted on Truth Social this morning in a very Trumpian manner. Don't the Democrats with a U not an E and various other seemingly unpatriotic Republicans understand it's much tougher for me to do my job properly and negotiate, urging us all to sit back and relax, which is perhaps easier for him to say than others involved in this conflict. What it suggests is a president who's under domestic pressure but also is slightly between a rock and a hard place in terms of this.

[Patrick Wintour]

Yeah, I think anyone saying sit back and relax, I think he then goes on to say it will work out. It always does in the end. I mean, I find that kind of debatable. Debata. Nothing's worked out so far in the end. So I find, I think the more he talks in those terms, the more you realize he really needs to get a solution to this. And I think he actually spoke to the French President Emmanuel Macron yesterday, which very much on that theme. And Macron's just saying we can't leave this as it is. It's going, the cefar is going to break down. And I mean, I should admit error in the sense last time I saw you, I said I thought there would be a solution within 24, 48 hours. And in fact, in my defense, there was a solution. There was a deal. He actually announced it and he said he was then going to go into the Situation Room and he basically spelled out what it was going to be. And then there was after two hour meeting in the Situation Room. Yeah, there was silence and obviously the internal discussion was such that they realized that the deal that agreed to is, was completely not going to work internally politically. So now they've gone back and reopened issues.

[Lucy Hoff]

Right.

[Patrick Wintour]

But there was a very interesting statement by I think the deputy chairman of Exxon who just said, we, we, we do not realize that we are two to three weeks away when our inventories are going to run down seriously and then we're going looking at oil prices of like $150 a barrel. So I do think there's a clock ticking and the more he says here we sit back and relax and that clock's ticking, something's going to go hysterically wrong.

[Lucy Hoff]

That's usually reassuring. You did caveat that by saying this is a very unpredictable president so you are forgiven for your not coming to pass. But I'm just wondering where the Iranians are on, on all of this because we had the Internet turned on after many weeks of that shutdown. So we're getting a sort of clearer sense Iranian citizens are doing. But clearly from the Iranian side, from the Iranian regime. There must be a lot of distrust of President Trump given that the, the various violations that we've seen.

[Patrick Wintour]

Yeah, I mean distrust and trust are the two words they probably use most about the negotiations and the decision to put, to allow the Internet to be connected to the sort of global Internet as it were, was driven by two things. One was there was so much political pressure to do so. Second was that there is this economic pressure really pressing down so hard now on the Iranians and parts of the Iranian economy are dependent upon the Internet. There was a report last week which talked in in terms of there being a 10% drop in GDP. It was a massive recession going to happen this year inside Iran and thousands more thrown onto the out of work and also living standards collapsing, hyperinflation, food inflation at over 100%. So the tensions inside Iran are palpable. And the president in a speech yesterday, we have to be prepared for some very, very tough decisions ahead. So I think he's aware of what they're going to have, the sacrifices they're asking the Iranian people. And that was one of the conflicts about if you let the Internet back on, will the debate start inside Iran about the political direction of Iran, of the country?

[Lucy Hoff]

Yeah. And just lastly, I mean, it sounds like difficult decisions on both sides. Both sides are in a very tough position from the US and from the Iranian side. So given that the clock is ticking, given that there is pressure from oil giants like ex con warning of how much bigger this crisis could get, do you think that increases the risk of a deal that is unpalatable and particularly for Trump to sell domestically and to the international community?

[Patrick Wintour]

Well, I think it makes it more likely whatever deal there is is quite vague and it leaves defers all some of the more complex issues for later. Because I think if the pressure is such that they've got to reach a deal, then the way to deal with the conflicts they've got over various things, such as the Strait of Hormuz, is to fudge it really, in essence, and

[Lucy Hoff]

then deal with them more and then

[Patrick Wintour]

deal with them later over 60. There's various timetables booked into this negotiation, including 60 days to deal with the nuclear issue. And that's sort of. But I think what you try to do is really leave it as vague as possible and even you don't publish the memorandum.

[Lucy Hoff]

Well, 60 days doesn't sound like very much time either. Patrick, thank you so much for your time.

[Patrick Wintour]

It's a pleasure.

[Lucy Hoff]

That's it for today. My huge thanks again to Patrick Wintour, the Guardian's diplomatic editor. You can keep up with his reporting and analysis [e-mail] as well as our Middle East Live blog. And don't miss today's episode of our sister podcast, Politics Weekly. Pippa Carrera and Kieran Stacey will be looking at the release of the second batch of Mandelson files and what they mean for Starmer's government. Thanks for listening to this episode of the latest Today in Focus will be back in your feeds tomorrow. As usual, the latest will be back tomorrow night. This episode was presented by me, Lucy Hoff. It was produced by Annie Levespa. The senior producer was Ryan Ramgobin and the lead producer was Zoe Hitchcock.

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