The assassination of Iran’s ayatollah – and fears for a wider conflict

Summary

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Today in Focus – The Assassination of Iran’s Ayatollah: Fears for a Wider Conflict

Podcast: Today in Focus
Host: Annie Kelly (The Guardian)
Guest: Patrick Wintour (Diplomatic Editor, The Guardian)
Date: March 1, 2026
Episode Focus: The ramifications of the assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, by joint US-Israeli airstrikes, subsequent regional fallout, and prospects for Iran and the Middle East.

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Overview

This episode delivers in-depth reporting and analysis on the US-Israeli airstrikes that killed Ayatollah Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader, marking a seismic shift in Middle Eastern geopolitics. Host Annie Kelly and Guardian diplomatic editor Patrick Wintour explore the context, fallout, and far-reaching implications for Iran, its people, global diplomacy, and the risk of wider regional war.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The Assassination and Immediate Impact

• Details of the Strike (03:38–05:42)

  • Khamenei killed by an airstrike on his compound, alongside top regime officials.
  • Airstrikes also targeted missile bases and IRGC headquarters, killing top commanders, but President Masoud Pezheshkian and key security officials survived.
  • "It happened slowly in the sense that rumors started to circulate... and then finally this admission. What it will now mean politically is just—it's an earthquake." – Patrick Wintour (03:38)

• Civilian Casualties

  • Notably, a school strike resulted in over 100 deaths, mainly children, leading to disputes over responsibility. (07:05–07:42)
  • "More than a hundred people have been killed, most of them young children." – Patrick Wintour (07:12)

2. Iran’s Retaliation and Regional Escalation

• Counterattacks (08:07–09:20)

  • Iran launched rapid missile and drone attacks on US and Israeli targets, as well as American bases in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Iraq, and Jordan.
  • Collateral damage includes civilian infrastructure—airport strikes, hits on hotels, and high-rise buildings.

• Regional Complexity

  • Iran faces backlash from Gulf states (particularly UAE and Saudi Arabia) for breaching their sovereignty, risking isolation from remaining regional allies.

3. The Ayatollah’s Legacy

• Khamenei’s Rule (10:36–12:23)

  • Shaped Iran through an unyielding religious doctrine, suppressing reform and maintaining strict social controls—especially around women’s rights.
  • All real political authority rested with the Supreme Leader, regardless of Iran’s superficial electoral process.

• Public Reaction

  • "It's bifurcated, it's divided, as is the Iranian society." – Patrick Wintour (12:28)
  • Celebrations and mourning intermingle—parts of the population grieve, while others risk celebratory protests, highlighting deep societal division and fear of state retaliation. (13:54)

4. Fallout Among the Iranian Diaspora and Opposition Prospects

• Diaspora Response (16:08–17:34)
  • The global Iranian community largely celebrates, with many expressing hope for a free Iran.
  • Notably, there's growing nostalgia for the Shah’s son, Reza Pahlavi, as a possible transitional leader, mainly due to a lack of viable internal opposition ("Most of the political opposition are either under house arrest or in jail." – Patrick Wintour, 17:41).

5. Nuclear Negotiations and US Strategy

• Negotiations Undermined (18:20–20:07)

  • Strikes occurred during supposed nuclear talks between the US and Iran, which appeared promising days before.

  • Patrick Wintour casts doubt on the talks’ sincerity, implying the attack was premeditated regardless of diplomatic progress.

  • "I think the Americans and the Israelis planned this attack, and the negotiations were almost window dressing." – Patrick Wintour (19:15)

• US Credibility Questioned
  • US diplomatic credibility eroded, with implications for all future negotiations.

6. Trump’s Motives and Political Calculations

• Domestic Selling of the War (21:20–22:32)

  • Trump has not sought Congressional approval, portraying the operation as a strong, necessary move to remove a terror regime.
  • "He'll just say, look, we've got rid of this terror regime that threatened the world, and you shouldn't care about the means... It's the outcome and the facts on the ground." – Patrick Wintour (21:43)

• Regime Change Uncertainties (22:50–24:30)

  • Doubts remain about the feasibility of quick regime change and risks of civil conflict, referencing past failures in Iraq and Libya.
  • "You can't drop democracy on a country from 30,000ft. You have to have a process that's internal." – Patrick Wintour (22:50)

• Lack of Expertise and Planning

  • Trump's team seen as lacking deep understanding of Iran’s complexities, potentially "one-dimensional" in approach. (24:30)

7. The Risk of Regional and Global Chaos

• International Response (26:56–28:01)

  • Allies have issued muted, embarrassed responses; focus has shifted to criticizing Iran’s retaliation rather than questioning the legitimacy of the initial attack.

• Prospect of War Expanding

  • Potential for wider war involves Gulf states turning against Iran, but Iran lacks military capacity for such escalation. (28:01–28:55)

8. The End of Rules-Based Global Order?

• New Geopolitical Reality (28:55–30:00)
  • The assassination is seen as a move away from international law towards a “might is right” approach.
  • "[There’s] no attempt by the US to even try and justify this under international law." – Annie Kelly (28:55)
  • Wintour sees some hope in alliances of ‘middle powers’ supporting international law and possible unpopularity of the war in the US.

9. The Future of Iran

• Regime Survival in Doubt (30:00–30:24)
  • Prediction that Iran will undergo major, irreversible changes within a year, with the regime unlikely to survive.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Patrick Wintour: "At one level an extrajudicial killing. And it's yet another example of what used to be the rules based order being totally ignored and thrown in the dustbin of history." (04:26)
• On Khamenei’s legacy: "He just saw the west as a sinister plot. He saw Israel as a sinister plot... the Supreme Leader is the person that matters and he will make the decisions. Ultimately." (10:59)
• On Iranian public reaction: "It's a risk to celebrate the death of the Supreme Leader… one of the boundaries, one of the no-go areas, is to criticize the Supreme Leader specifically." (13:54)
• On US negotiations: "It would have been possible for Donald Trump to have said, I have secured a deal… but he chose not to go down that path." (19:15)
• On regime change: "You can’t drop democracy from 30,000ft." (22:50)
• On the new world order: "There's no attempt by the US to even try and justify this under international law… a world of geopolitics, of might is right." – Annie Kelly (28:55)
• On Iran’s future: "I don't think in a year's time, Iran will be recognizable as to what it is now. It simply doesn't have the strength that it used to have." – Patrick Wintour (30:09)

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Key Timestamps

• 01:05 – News of Khamenei’s death breaks, comparison to the fall of the Berlin Wall.
• 03:38 – Patrick Wintour reacts to the news: “It was an earthquake.”
• 07:12 – On civilian casualties, including schoolchildren: “Over a hundred killed, most young.”
• 08:11 – Iran’s retaliation: strikes across the Gulf region.
• 10:36 – Reflections on Khamenei’s rule and ideology.
• 12:28 – Societal split in Iran’s response to the assassination.
• 16:13 – The Iranian diaspora’s reaction: “Absolutely delighted.”
• 18:20 – Disrupted nuclear talks, questions over sincerity and planning.
• 21:20 – Trump’s domestic challenge and lack of Congressional authorization.
• 22:50 – Risks and difficulties of regime change: “You can’t drop democracy…”
• 24:30 – Lack of expertise around Trump regarding Iran policy.
• 28:55 – The breakdown of postwar international order.
• 30:09 – Prediction: Iran’s regime unlikely to survive.

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Conclusion

This episode paints a sobering picture of a watershed moment for Iran and the Middle East. The death of Khamenei has opened up dangerous uncertainties, both for Iran’s future and for international order at large. While the US frames its actions as removing a global threat, the episode questions the legality, morality—and potential fallout—of regime change by force. Ultimately, the brunt of this transition will fall hardest on ordinary Iranians as the regional and global balance shifts.

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Transcript

[Annie Kelly]

This is the Guardian. Today, the assassination of the Ayatollah.

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[Annie Kelly]

He survived imprisonment, assassination attempts, decades of protests, and exerted a brutal iron grip on Iran's 90 million people. Now Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Khomeini is dead, killed by US And Israeli airstrikes that levelled his compound where he and some of the most senior regime leaders were sheltering. As news of the Ayatollah's death emerged, there was public mourning on the streets of Iran, But also ecstatic celebrations inside Iran and around the world. This is a big day. This is like the Berlin Wall is being formed.

[Patrick Wintour]

So this is a significant victory for Iranians.

[Annie Kelly]

It's a significant victory for the peace

[Patrick Wintour]

in the entire world. This is the overcoming of the light to the darkness.

[Annie Kelly]

Meanwhile, Iran has launched retaliatory strikes and vows vengeance. It is still unclear whether his assass will bring about the regime change that Donald Trump so clearly desires or what will happen next for Iran, where the airstrikes continue and the death toll is spiraling.

[Donald Trump]

When we are finished, take over your government, it will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations.

[Patrick Wintour]

It's absolutely transformational. If Donald Trump succeeds in what he's attempting to do, which is to change the regime in Iran, you have change the whole political landscape of the Middle East.

[Annie Kelly]

From the Guardian, I'm Annie Kelly. Today in Focus After a weekend that changed everything, what next for Iran and the world? Patrick Wintour, you're the Guardian's diplomatic editor and we are speaking to you on Sunday, 24 hours after Israel and the US launched extraordinary military strikes against Iran. How did you feel when you heard the news that Khamenei, Iran's 86 year old supreme leader, had been assassinated?

[Patrick Wintour]

Well, it was an incredible shock because it's such a moment of transition for Iran. I mean, in a way, Iran has been waiting for the moment where he would die through natural causes. But the way he's been killed by Israel and America is quite astonishing because it also, it happened slowly in the sense that rumors started to circulate, coming mainly from Israel, that he had been struck. And then there were sort of half denials by The Iranian government. And then finally this admission, what it will now mean politically is just it's an earthquake.

[Annie Kelly]

You've been reporting on Iran for decades now. How did you feel about this? This must have been a kind of extraordinary moment for you as well.

[Patrick Wintour]

I feel probably like many people, extremely torn in the sense that I don't have much love for this regime and I've reported on large number of people who've been kept in Iranian jails quite wrongly. At the same time, I feel in a way ambivalent about the way in which this has happened because this is at one level an extrajudicial killing. And it's yet another example of what used to be the rules based order being totally ignored and thrown in the dustbin of history.

[Annie Kelly]

Could you just talk us through the timeline of these strikes and what's happened since?

[Patrick Wintour]

Well, they started at around 06:00 UK time. A bit later in Tehran, the first warnings of strikes occurred in the sense that there were loud explosions in Tehran. And then it became clear that this was the attack that the Iranians had been fearing.

[Annie Kelly]

Media reports say blasts have been heard in Esfahan, Karaj, Kirman, Shah Rom and the port city of Bushehr and the strikes themselves. Could you tell us a bit about what was hit and what casualties there have been?

[Patrick Wintour]

So some of the very first attacks were on the President and on the Supreme Leader's sort of compound. And there's been pictures of that compound, satellite pictures of the compound showing it totally incinerated, a charred ruin. And from there these deaths have occurred. And it probably is from there that in that rubble the body of the Supreme Leader was found. Because the initial account from the Iranians was that they had been anticipating this attack and that the Supreme Leader was in Tehran, he was somewhere secure elsewhere. But that emerged to be untrue. The targets have been similar to what happened last June, which is to attack the missile bases, to attack the launch pads for these missiles, to attack the headquarters and regional headquarters of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which is the centerpiece of the Iranian security forces. They've killed the commander of the irgc, they've killed the commander of the armed forces. They have not managed to kill the president, which is the second time they've tried to assassinate him, Masoud Peshashkian, and they haven't killed Ali Larijani, who is the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council and who's now going to be a very important figure, I think, in Iranian politics.

[Annie Kelly]

There was also this devastating strike on a school, wasn't there? Which resulted in the loss of life of hundreds of young children.

[Patrick Wintour]

Yes. I mean, there's a very unpleasant dispute that starts to occur in these incidents, which is whether the school was attached to an IRGC headquarters, and also whether the source of the explosion was an Israeli or American bomb, or whether in fact it was some kind of stray IRGC missile. But either way, more than a hundred people have been killed, most of them young children. And there's also a tragedy of, I think, mainly teenage girls who've been killed in a sports hall, maybe 20 there. So there are civilian deaths. And there is going to be these disputes as to how it happened.

[Annie Kelly]

Could you tell us a bit about the counter attacks that Iran launched in response?

[Patrick Wintour]

Yeah, they've been quicker than last time in terms of being prepared to strike not only at Israel, but also American bases right across the region. And so they've struck in United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Iraq, I think, and also in Jordan. So they warned that they were going to do this, and they went around the region saying this was going to be their response. And they are trying to draw a distinction between invading the sovereignty of these Gulf states and the attack on the bases. But I think what's inevitably happening is that some of these drones and missiles are missing their target. So I think an airport terminal in Kuwait was struck. High rise buildings have been struck.

[Annie Kelly]

Panic, chaos and injuries at the Dubai airport overnight, and a shahed drone striking a luxury hotel in Dubai's Palm. Jumeirah. Oh, my God.

[Patrick Wintour]

I think it's one of the most sensitive issues for Iran now is whether they're going to be able to prevent the anger that is simmering inside the leaderships inside, particularly, say, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia about what Iran is doing and whether they're going to have to pull back on that. I don't know.

[Annie Kelly]

Yeah, I mean, they're walking a real tightrope, aren't they? They need to be shown to be retaliating and trying to hit those bases. It's also some of, I guess, their last remaining allies in the region as well. So hugely complicated situation. Can you just explain to listeners how big a moment is this? I mean, this is huge, isn't it?

[Patrick Wintour]

Yes, it's transformational because this regime has been in power since 1979. It's built up a astonishing array of proxy forces across the region which have been weakened in the last two to three years. The Americans now seem to be bent on bringing about a change in leadership inside Iran, and what they're attempting to do is to bring in a government much more favorable, not only to America, but to the rest of the Middle East. So the whole fulcrum or the tension point inside the Middle east will have been removed if this succeeds.

[Annie Kelly]

Coming in and taking out the Supreme Leader is in itself the most audacious act. Could you tell us a bit about who the Ayatollah Was? He was 86, ruled Iran for almost 40 years. You've visited Iran many times during his rule. Can you tell us how the Ayatollah shaped Iran during his multi decade rule?

[Patrick Wintour]

He shaped it to ensure that it didn't change or move away from its absolute religious basis, its sheer religious basis. And you could take the example of the Women Life Freedom protests where he was absolutely adamant that the hijab should remain compulsory, that the relationship between men and women should be largely one of subjugation. He just saw the west as a sinister plot. He saw Israel as a sinister plot. He saw the whole country as standing up in a way that no other country did to this threat that the west, the west represented. One of the complexities of Iran is that when you go there, you meet elected politicians or diplomats. There is this veneer of democracy, there are elections, there are people who. And there are choices to be made about whether you back reformists or conservatives. But throughout that whole process, the Supreme Leader is the person that matters and he will make the decisions. Ultimately.

[Annie Kelly]

Could you tell us what has been the reaction to his assassination inside Iran?

[Patrick Wintour]

It's bifurcated, it's divided, as is the Iranian society. So I think by night there were celebrations about his death by some. And then today there's been an outpouring of grief in the streets of Tehran and elsewhere. So just reflects what Iran is going through at present. Where many people hate him, they associate him with these appalling killings that happened when the protests occurred four weeks ago. They think he showed virtually no remorse after that, unlike the President, and basically blamed it on outsiders and Zionists and Israelis. One human rights group has already identified

[Annie Kelly]

more than 6,000 of the dead, or almost all protesters, though dozens were simply bystanders and more than 90 were children. And the counting has barely begun.

[Patrick Wintour]

So he is a figure of hatred for some and then adored by others. And this is what Iran is now

[Annie Kelly]

and also very confusing. Difficult to understand exactly what the public response has been because there are still going to be potential repercussions for people who are would be seen celebrating. But despite this, there have been some really quite moving videos, haven't there? Of People shouting to each other between tower blocks in Tehran. And people have been coming out on the streets and celebrating.

[Patrick Wintour]

It is a risk to celebrate the death of the Supreme Leader. I mean, it's one of the things that you just cannot do in Iranian society is to criticize the Supreme Leader. There is this kind of political discourse that does happen, but one of the boundaries, one of the no go areas, is to criticize the Supreme Leader specifically. But how it will play out now is obviously going to be fascinating. I mean, the leadership that survived is really pressing the button of national unity as much as possible, warning that what America and Israel are trying to do is to divide the country. There's always this great fear that Iran will fragment, that its, that its constituent parts, the Kurds, Azerbaijanis, will all kind of divide and that the whole country will break up. And that's a kind of fear that the Iranian leadership are now playing very hard in their response to his death.

[Annie Kelly]

And what's been the rhetoric coming out from those still in power inside Iran? Have they been threatening retribution for his death?

[Patrick Wintour]

Yes. I mean, inevitably, the promise that they will ensure that revenge is wreaked. The reality is whether they have got enough missiles, enough firepower to continue for much longer. There is going to be a limit to what they're going to be able to do militarily. And despite all the efforts they've so far in terms of trying to attack American bases in the Gulf, they haven't been that many big successes. So whether there's going to be just a moment of exhaustion when they realize they're just don't have the military means to defeat America, how do they sue for peace is going to be a huge, huge issue. And who does it? I think whether the choice of the next Supreme Leader could lead to a kind of discussion in Washington as to how much further they want to go with this. If it's a very hard line figure, then you could see American continuing with the military offensive. But if there's some signal coming out from Tehran that there will be a political change, then you might see Trump hold back for a bit.

[Annie Kelly]

What about Iranians abroad? What's been the reaction from the diaspora?

[Patrick Wintour]

The bulk of diaspora is absolutely going to be delighted. I mean, this is what they've been craving for, for years and years. And so many have left the country. So many talented people have left the country because they found it so stifling. And I don't know how many would want to go back if there was a different political climate in Iran. I'm sure, many would. Hi, my name is Karen.

[Annie Kelly]

I'm an Iranian.

[Patrick Wintour]

And the free Iran. Down with the regime. We only stand with our people. And, yeah, hopefully home soon.

[Annie Kelly]

And many of them have been calling for the return of the son of the Shah, the former monarch of Iran, haven't they?

[Patrick Wintour]

One of the big issues is whether the son of the Shah, Rita Pahlavi, is going to be this transitional figure that he wants to be and whether he will return to Iran and he will be fated as the next leader. That would be an extraordinary turnaround because he himself, his family, were thrown out for being corrupt, vicious, and politically just totally in lockstep with the West. And so it's extraordinary that so many young kids seem to want to shout his name and want him back. And it's almost weirdly, he's become a symbol of monarchy, he's become a symbol of modernity.

[Annie Kelly]

And also, you know, the fact that maybe this is just because there is a lack of other alternatives in terms of opposition figures.

[Patrick Wintour]

Most of the political opposition are either under house arrest or in jail. Even in the last few weeks, some of the key reformist characters who helped possess gambling be elected were themselves arrested for having criticized the way in which the security forces had dealt with the protests. It's very difficult to see how an internal political opposition can work.

[Annie Kelly]

And these strikes came as the US And Iran were actually supposed to be negotiating over Iran's nuclear capabilities, which that the mood music on Friday, especially from Oman, was that these talks were going well, that they were serious, they were active, they saw a road to a deal. I read in one of your recent pieces that the Omani foreign minister had even rushed to the US to try and explain the fact that progress had been made and that Iran had agreed to zero stop stockpiles of highly enriched uranium, you know, access for things like the International Atomic Energy agency, and that U.S. weapons inspectors might even be allowed inside Iran alongside, you know, the inspectors from the UN So what do we know about why Trump and Israel chose this moment to strike? What changed?

[Patrick Wintour]

I think it's quite possible that these talks were largely a facade once the Americans knew that the ballistic missile program wasn't going to be included in the talks. I think the Americans and the Israelis planned this attack, and the negotiations were almost window dressing. It would have been possible, I think, for Donald Trump to have said, I have secured a deal that no one else has been able to secure, and I have ended forever the risk of Iran having nuclear weapons. But he chose not to go down that path. He is now, this incredible risk taker, he thought he'd secured a huge success in Venezuela, and now he's trying to reproduce it, albeit in a much more complex and difficult form. But whether he's taken on more than he can digest, we'll find out.

[Annie Kelly]

Also, how is it that any other country is ever going to be able to trust the US From a diplomatic perspective anymore? If it is true that these talks were, you know, a bit of a facade, it was that the strikes were on the table all along, but they still made the Iranians go through this process. Surely that means that no one will ever take the US Seriously from a diplomatic perspective anymore.

[Patrick Wintour]

Well, you might not want to take them seriously, but you have to. You have to take the world's superpower seriously. There's no way around it. So many people might not like their methods and might hate the deception, but that's what America is at present.

[Annie Kelly]

It's do what we say or else. It seems to be the general diplomatic stance that the US Seems to be taking at the moment.

[Donald Trump]

For these reasons, the United States military is undertaking a massive and ongoing operation to prevent this very wicked, radical dictatorship from threatening America and our core national security interests. We are going to destroy their missiles and raise their missile industry to the ground. It will be totally, again, obliterated.

[Annie Kelly]

Trump himself once railed against Bush and the neocons over Iraq. You wrote in your analysis that it's extraordinary now that he didn't do much to convince Congress or the American people of the need to kickstart this new war. He even admitted that American lives could be lost. How on earth is Trump going to sell this at home?

[Patrick Wintour]

Well, I think he'll sell it if it's a success. He'll just say, look, we've got rid of this terror regime that threatened the world, and you shouldn't care about the means by which we did it. It's the outcome and the facts on the ground that he will point to and say, force matters, might matters, and we have the strongest army in the world and we can achieve whatever we want. You know, there's no love for Iran inside America. So I think a lot of people will accept that. And it's going to be a tricky thing for the Democrats in Congress to oppose this. I think mainly the issue will be around the fact that Congress is supposed to authorize wars under the American Constitution, and that simply has not happened. He's just overridden any suggestion that there should be any kind of democratic oversight of what he's done.

[Annie Kelly]

And in his Comments as the strikes began, Trump talks, yes, about wanting to stop Iran's nuclear capabilities, but also explicitly about regime change. We've now seen that play out as he's killed the Supreme Leader and targeted the President. But is this job done now?

[Patrick Wintour]

It's not job done until he knows who succeeds the Supreme Leader and whether Iran, which is lots of ways aching to modernize and to change, is allowed to do so. You don't have ground forces. You can't drop democracy on a country from 30,000ft. You have to have a process that's internal. We've seen so many countries where there's been attempts to introduce democracy and the notable examples of Libya and Iraq, and it is incredibly complex and sometimes you uncork things you didn't know were there. I think maybe not enough people knew about the kind of divisions inside Iraq society that had been suppressed by Saddam Hussein. In the same way, I don't think enough people knew about the divisions inside Libya that had been suppressed by Colonel Gaddafi. And you could see inside Iran divisions that no one had really imagined. You know, the threat of a civil war has to be taken seriously inside Iran.

[Annie Kelly]

And Trump called for the people of Iran to rise up, saying that this was their one chance to get rid of the regime.

[Donald Trump]

For many years you have asked for America's help, but you never got it. No president was willing to do what I am willing to do tonight. Now you have a president who is giving you what you want. So let's see how you respond.

[Annie Kelly]

I mean, do you think he has got a credible plan? Do you think that is there any indication that the US have kind of thought this through and that they know they can see a path through this to an outcome that they would be happy to accept?

[Patrick Wintour]

No, I think that's one of the more terrifying aspects is I don't think there are a lot of Iran experts around Trump. I don't think Jared Kushner or Steve Witkoff, who were negotiating on Trump's behalf, know very much about Iran at all. This was a limit of, it is, you know, it's a great civilization, etc, and there are tough guys. You know, it's, it's, it's really primeval the level of knowledge that the, the Americans have about Iran and it's very one dimensional. And one of the tragedies of the Trump administration is that they've sacked lots of diplomats who do understand the country and do understand the complexities.

[Annie Kelly]

Coming up, has Trump changed the Middle east forever? Foreign.

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[Annie Kelly]

Perfected. This has been such a shocking act. We have to remember this, don't you? Bombing a country in the middle of negotiations, assassinating its leader, going after its head of government. What has the international community had to say since these strikes began?

[Patrick Wintour]

Personally, I find it slightly. There's been a kind of embarrassed silence to the extent that there's statements to the effect that we, ie Europeans, took no part in the military operation. They've then focused on how Iran should not be attacking other Gulf states. But there's sort of the sentence that's missing is the issue of whether this military attack should have been launched in the first place.

[Annie Kelly]

We have seen Iran launching these retaliatory strikes at Israel and US Bases across the region. Explosions in Qatar, uae, Bahrain, Kuwait. How high are the risks that this is going to spill over into a regional war?

[Patrick Wintour]

Well, if it is a regional war, it will be a war in which the Gulf states turn on Iran. But I think what they will try to do is put maximum political diplomatic pressure on Iran to stop these attacks and to sue for peace in some way or another. I think there will be divisions of opinion inside the Gulf states. I mean, it's notable that Oman has not been attacked at all. The mediators, whilst the uae are probably the country closest to Israel that are most angry with what Iran is doing. But I don't think there's going to be. Iran just simply doesn't have the firepower to take on the whole of the Gulf and America and Israel and I

[Annie Kelly]

mean, we're now in this era of no rules, international order. You know, there's no attempt by the US to even try and justify this under international law. These strikes. How do you think this new kind of world of geopolitics, of might is right, is going to play out over the coming months and years?

[Patrick Wintour]

Well, the only kind of glimmer, in my view, of some kind of hope, there's two. One is that there is going to be an alliance of middle powers that will still subscribe to international law and diplomacy. And the second glimmer is that I don't think this war is going to be hugely popular. We'll see inside America and I certainly we know that Trump himself is losing political support and we will have these midterm elections in November and that could at least allow there to be a clearer check and balance on the president. But for the moment, he is ruling the world untrammeled.

[Annie Kelly]

What about Iran? What do you think is going to happen next? Where would you put your money in terms of where this is going to land for them? Is this a real existential threat?

[Patrick Wintour]

As it stands, I don't think this regime can survive. I don't think in a year's time, Iran will be recognizable as to what it is now. It simply doesn't have the strength that it used to have.

[Darina]

Right.

[Annie Kelly]

And I suppose it's going to be the Iranian people who are ultimately going to be bearing the brunt of this change. Patrick, thank you so much.

[Patrick Wintour]

Thank you.

[Annie Kelly]

My thanks to Patrick Wintour. And you can read all of his reporting and the rest of our journalism on the situation in [e-mail] and just before we go, I'd like to tell you about an episode of Politics Weekly America that has just launched, where Jonathan Friedland speaks to the Governor of California, Gavin Newsom, about why he thinks the Democrats lost so badly in 2024, why they need to be less judgmental as a party, and whether or not he's going to run for president in 2028. And that's it for today. This episode was produced by Danielle Stevens and Eli Block and presented by me, Annie Kelly. Sound design was by Eli Block and the executive producer was Homa Khalili. We'll be back Monday afternoon with foreign. This is the Guardian.

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