Zelenskyy’s clever play to win over Trump at G7– The Latest

Summary

Today in Focus – The Latest

Episode Title: The scramble to convince Trump to back Ukraine

Date: June 16, 2026
Host: Noshi Nikbal
Guest: John Henley, Guardian’s Europe Correspondent

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Episode Overview

This episode dives into the frantic diplomatic efforts underway at the G7 summit in the French Alps, where European leaders are focused on keeping Donald Trump engaged in supporting Ukraine amidst the ongoing war with Russia. The conversation explores Trump's unpredictable stance, his transactional dealings with Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy, mounting European anxieties, and the enormous economic and security stakes hanging in the balance.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Stakes for Europe at the G7 (01:11)

• Existential Crisis:
  John Henley immediately frames the situation as both a defense and economic crisis for Europe, with the continent’s security and future on the line.

  "This is a defense crisis for Europe. It's an economic crisis for Europe. This is existential."
  — John Henley [01:11]

• Fear of a Trump-Favored Russia Deal:
  Trump’s current momentum, partly from a vague Iran deal, has European leaders worried he could broker a Russia-Ukraine settlement that overwhelmingly favors Moscow.

2. Trump’s Current Stance and European Strategies (02:04–03:17)

• European Hopes:
  Leaders aim to keep Trump committed to some form of unified policy or parameters for peace in Ukraine.

  "They're absolutely desperate to keep him on board, keep him focused, try and get a kind of coherent, unified strategic approach to Ukraine out of him."
  — John Henley [02:46]

• Mixed Blessing:
  Trump’s involvement brings attention but also unpredictability, especially given his erratic history with both Putin and Zelenskyy.

3. Trump-Zelenskyy Relationship: Transactionality Reigns (03:40–04:43)

• Ego Massaging:
  Zelenskyy works to flatter Trump to maintain American support, seeking, for instance, U.S. permission to manufacture Patriot missiles in Ukraine.

  "Zelenskyy is playing it really quite cleverly, I think. I mean, he's massaging Trump's ego as hard as he can, really."
  — John Henley [03:47]

• Trump’s Boasts & Shifts:
  Trump claims to have a unique ability to broker peace and maintains a ‘special relationship’ with Putin, but, in a new development, now expects at least some concessions from Russia.

  "He did acknowledge today at the G7 summit that there is an awful lot of animosity, at least between Zelensky and Putin, which is progress from Trump."
  — John Henley [04:34]

4. The Economic Motivator: Critical Minerals Deal (05:46–07:15)

• US-Ukraine Investment Fund:
  Newly signed agreements grant 50% of future mineral extraction licenses to the U.S., but most reserves are under Russian-occupied territory.

  "It gives basically 50% of all future licensing revenue from the extraction of, yes, of critical minerals, of lithium, titanium gas, energy gas, et cetera in Ukraine. The whole package... is estimated to be worth something like $14 trillion."
  — John Henley [06:24]

• Motivation for Trump:
  Realization that neither Trump nor U.S. companies can benefit unless the war ends, increasing his incentive for a settlement.

  "There's potentially a lot of money in there for Donald Trump. But the crucial thing is that 50% of those reserves, more than 50% of those reserves are underneath territory that is currently occupied Russia."
  — John Henley [06:50]

5. Battlefield Realities and Leadership Messaging (07:32–09:56)

• Von der Leyen’s Assessment:
  The European Commission president’s statements strike a balance between optimism about Ukraine’s gains and realism about Russia’s resilience.

  "They're kind of a mix, I think of sort of, you know, strategic optimism, but also a good dose of reality."
  — John Henley [08:05]

• Current Balance of Forces:
  Ukraine has success with deep strikes into Russia, but the front line remains fiercely contested; the Russian military and economy, while strained, are not broken.

  "Ukraine is succeeding in striking deep into Russian territory, but the front line is still really bitterly contested and a very, very tough place indeed to be."
  — John Henley [08:47]

  "Russia is now functioning as a full scale militarized war economy. And it can continue functioning despite the sanctions and everything."
  — John Henley [09:16]

6. Impact of the G7—Symbolism vs. Substance (10:09–11:49)

• Summit Outcomes:
  While often derided as "talking shops," summits offer important opportunities for leaders to align and negotiate, particularly as Europe’s very borders and economic stability are at stake.

  "If by virtue of some kind of forced deal that Trump pushes through and that Zelensky is obliged to give in to, ... Russia succeeds in gaining more Ukrainian territory... then Europe's borders are fragile and they look vulnerable."
  — John Henley [10:53]

  "Sitting around the table with him, you know, the least you can say is that it can't do any harm."
  — John Henley [11:44]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "Zelenskyy ... has said only Trump can do it or maybe only Trump can solve this problem."
  — John Henley [03:59]

• "We've moved on clearly from that extraordinary blow up that we all remember in the White House when J.D. Vance and Trump essentially insulted Zelensky in front of everybody."
  — John Henley [04:15]

• "It's unrealistic to say that Russia has lost. ... The Russian war machine certainly isn't paralyzed yet."
  — John Henley [08:49, 09:05]

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Important Timestamps

• 01:11 — Framing the crisis: existential stakes for Europe.
• 02:04 — G7's mission: keep Trump engaged on Ukraine.
• 03:40 — Transactional Trump-Zelenskyy dynamics.
• 06:15 — US-Ukraine critical minerals deal and the $14 trillion incentive.
• 08:03 — Von der Leyen’s battlefield optimism and realism.
• 10:09 — The limited power and symbolism of G7 summits.

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Final Thoughts

This concise but incisive episode captures the delicate tightrope walk at the G7, as European leaders try to leverage the prospect of economic gain and geopolitical stability to steer Trump toward a position aligned with Europe’s interests. The personalities, incentives, and on-the-ground war realities combine to present a complex diplomatic landscape—and, as ever, the outcome hangs on unpredictable negotiations at the summit.

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Summary by Today in Focus. For full reporting, visit theguardian.com.

Transcript

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[John Henley]

This is a defense crisis for Europe. It's an economic crisis for Europe. This is existential. Look, Russia should make a deal. Russia's lost tremendous amounts of people and so has Ukraine. The crucial thing in that is that he is expecting concessions from Putin as well. That's a step in the right direction and that would be welcomed by European leaders.

[Noshi Nikbal]

From the Guardians Today In Focus, this is the latest with me, Noshi Nikbal. John Henley, thank you for joining us. You're the Guardians Europe correspondent. It is day one of the G7 summit, where world leaders are gathering in the French Alps and all eyes today are on Donald Trump. Who else? Now, there's a lot of attention being paid in trying to get Trump to focus on the Russia. Ukraine war could be something of a mixed blessing. But what are European leaders hoping for?

[John Henley]

I mean, they're essentially hoping to keep Donald Trump on board and to get him to agree to at least an agreed set of parameters for ongoing talks over Ukraine. I mean, Trump arrived at this G7 summit with, with quite a head of kind of diplomatic and political momentum because of the deal on Iran, albeit it's very vague, nobody really knows yet what's in it. It could all come to nothing. It doesn't look very convincing. But he arrived with that in his pocket, as it were. And what European leaders are absolutely terrified of is that he will take the momentum from that deal and try and move it forward into a deal between Moscow and Kyiv that dramatically favors Russia rather than Ukraine. So European leaders are just absolutely desperate to keep him on board, keep him focused, try and get a kind of coherent, unified strategic approach to Ukraine out of him. That's what they're looking for, because that

[Noshi Nikbal]

sort of favorability to Moscow, it is a real worry, isn't it? I mean, Trump confirmed this morning that he'd had a very good meeting with Zelenskyy. He's due to have another one today. He did also say Russia should make a deal. It's a very simple statement. But, John, how significant is it because he's not exactly been consistent in his condemnation of Putin or in his support for Zelenskyy in these last few years.

[John Henley]

No, exactly. I mean, I think he has a very transactional relationship now with Zelensk. I think that's the key thing. Zelenskyy is playing it really quite cleverly, I think. I mean, he's massaging Trump's ego as hard as he can, really. Trump said he had these good talks. Zelensky in turn, has said only Trump can do it or maybe only Trump can solve this problem. And it's clear that Zelenskyy also wants desperately license a light permission essentially to manufacture Patriot missiles in Ukraine. So he's keen to get that out of Trump. Trump is, you know, we've moved on clearly from that extraordinary blow up that we all remember in the White House When J.D. vance and Trump essentially insulted Zelensky in front of everybody.

[Noshi Nikbal]

It's humiliating.

[John Henley]

Well, yeah, we've now moved onto a, you know, a much more transactional kind of relationship. And as regards put, Trump has long trumpeted his kind of special relationship with Putin and boasted that he's capable of solving the situation and stopping the war essentially with a single phone call, which clearly isn't true. But he did acknowledge today at the G7 summit that there is an awful lot of animosity, at least between Zelensky and Putin, which is progress from Trump. And as you say, he said pushing Moscow to get a deal done. And I think the crucial thing in that is that it kind of acknowledges that he is expecting concessions from Putin as well in order to make a deal. He's clearly demanding that Putin make some concessions. That's a step in the right direction and that would be welcomed by European leaders.

[Noshi Nikbal]

Well, let's talk about the concessions on the Ukrainian side, because after that explosive White House meeting, Ukraine and the US did sign a deal on critical minerals, which means that the US Will share profits in any future mineral or energy resources that Ukraine has, which obviously can't really come into full play until the war is over. So I wonder, John, how much is that partnership worth to Trump and how much do you think it's incentivizing him to get this peace deal going?

[John Henley]

Well, it clearly will be motivating him for the simple reason that, as you say, this US Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund, as it's called, it gives basically 50% of all future licensing revenue from the extraction of, yes, of critical minerals, of lithium, titanium gas, energy gas, et cetera in Ukraine. The whole package of that is estimated to be worth something like $14 trillion. So there's potentially a lot of money in there for Donald Trump. But the crucial thing is that 50% of those reserves, more than 50% of those reserves are underneath territory that is currently occupied Russia. And so, you know, Trump can't, as it were, cash in or American companies can't cash in on this agreement until the war, the war is over. So that clearly will be a motivate. I mean, we know, we've seen in the past how much, you know, commercial interest, the extent to which commercial interests, you know, motivate Trump and his family and the whole kind of Trump money making machine. So, yeah, that will be certainly, you know, be at the forefront of his mind as well.

[Noshi Nikbal]

I wonder what you make of some of the statements coming out of the summit today. And I'm thinking about Ursula von der Leyen, the Europe Commission president, who said Ukraine is holding the front line, even partially regaining territory. And she goes on to say that, you know, the country has developed the capability to strike strategic targets deep inside. Russia has become world leading in terms of producing cutting edge military equipment. And on the other hand, Russia is feeling the strain and the pressure. John, how fair do you think this is, an assessment of the war as it's going?

[John Henley]

Yeah, I mean, I think it's. As regards Ursula von der Leyen's comments, they're kind of a mix, I think of sort of, you know, strategic optimism, but also a good dose of reality. You know, I mean, it's absolutely true and that the, you know, the leaders at the summit today essentially agreed that Russia is not, not winning this war. I mean, it might not be losing and Ukraine might not be winning either, but Russia certainly isn't winning. And so in that case, that's a very fair assessment.

[Noshi Nikbal]

He does suggest that Ukraine has the edge here, though. I mean, you say neither side are really winning and there's something of an impasse.

[John Henley]

But, well, you know, I mean, I would just think it's unrealistic to say that Russia has lost. So, yes, Ukraine is succeeding in striking deep into Russian territory, but the front line is still really bitterly contested and a very, very tough place indeed to be. And as we saw yesterday, Russia is still very much capable of launching really big full scale drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian targets. As the summit was effectively getting underway yesterday, UNESCO listed World Heritage sites were being struck in Kyiv. So the Russian war machine certainly isn' isn't paralyzed yet. And although the Russian economy is definitely suffering, it hasn't collapsed either. I mean, Russia is now functioning as a full scale militarized war economy. And it can continue functioning despite the sanctions and everything. It can continue functioning like that, theoretically, at least for some time. So I think the situation is quite, quite finely balanced. Nobody's actually losing, but nobody's actually winning either.

[Noshi Nikbal]

And then so when it comes to the summit itself, I mean, I don't want to do the G7 dirty. It's full of very important people. But how much traditionally, historically does it actually get done? How much faith do you have that there will be some influence that's wielded over the next few days that will have some impact in this war?

[John Henley]

I mean, they are obviously talking shops and very little concretely comes out of them directly, but I think they are useful. It is clearly useful for world leaders to sit down relatively informally and talking about this full scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in terms of what matters for the European Union. I mean, this is existential, really. This conflict is absolutely critical for the European Union. If by virtue of some kind of forced deal that Trump pushes through and that Zelensky is obliged to give in to, if by virtue of a deal like that, Russia succeeds in gaining more Ukrainian territory, more Ukrainian territory than it has at the moment, then Europe's borders are fragile and they look vulnerable. So this is a defense crisis for Europe. It's an economic crisis. For energy costs have gone through the roof, inflation is, et cetera. It's really something that the European leaders feel they have to resolve. And to do that, they're very well aware that they have to get Trump on board. So sitting around the table with him, you know, the least you can say is that it can't do any harm.

[Noshi Nikbal]

We'll have to wait and see. John, thank you so much for your time. That's it for today. Thanks again to Europe correspondent John Henley. Thanks for listening to this episode of the latest Today in Focus will be back with you tomorrow morning and their latest will be back in your feeds tomorrow night. This episode was produced by Annie Levespa. The senior producer was Ryan Ramgobin and the lead producer was Zoe Hitch. The presenter was me, Noshi Nikval.

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