Trump chickens out on Iran deadline – The Latest

Summary

Today in Focus – The Latest: "Trump chickens out on Iran deadline" (March 23, 2026)

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Episode Overview

This episode of "Today in Focus: The Latest," hosted by Lucy Half, delves into the rapidly evolving standoff between the United States and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. In a tense global climate, President Trump has unexpectedly postponed military action against Iran, extending a high-stakes ultimatum. Diplomatic editor Patrick Wintour joins to untangle the conflicting messages from Washington and Tehran, analyze regional and market reactions, and assess the risks of continued brinkmanship in the Middle East.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Trump’s Sudden U-Turn & Murky Diplomacy

• After a 48-hour deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, President Trump announced via Truth Social the postponement of strikes on Iran, attributing his decision to “productive talks.”
• However, as Wintour notes, there have been no verified direct talks. Any communication likely occurred via intermediaries such as Oman or Turkey.
  • Quote: "It certainly seems that just before the markets opened... he decided to make this announcement that he was holding back for five days, but as ever, is Armageddon postponed?" (Patrick Wintour, 02:26)
  • The phrase “Taco Trump always chickens out” is cited, demonstrating skepticism about Trump’s resolve.

2. Conflicting Narratives from Washington and Tehran

• The U.S. frames the pause as a diplomatic breakthrough; Iran is more muted, possibly denying talks altogether for domestic image.
• Wintour suggests there’s “bound to be some crowing going on in Tehran,” but acknowledges back-channel discussions, focusing narrowly on the Hormuz issue, may be under way. (Patrick Wintour, 03:46)

3. Market Reactions and Oil Economics

• Oil prices, at a high of $113/barrel, plummeted following Trump’s postponement announcement, demonstrating just how volatile the news cycle—and Trump’s statements—make global markets. (Lucy Half, 04:43)
• Wintour cautions that taking Trump's statements at face value has proven risky due to the high stakes and his unpredictability.

4. Escalation Risks and Power Dynamics

• Host and guest discuss Iran’s resilience despite leadership losses and heavy attacks.
  • The Iranian regime remains intact, prioritizing survival, with leadership renewal possible despite major strikes, including the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
  • Quote: "They're still functioning as a state...You just cannot wipe them all out. You can wipe out the leaders and you can weaken them, but ultimately they renew and reproduce." (Patrick Wintour, 07:56)
• The possibility of further escalation—especially Iranian retaliation targeting critical infrastructure like desalination plants—is highlighted. Such attacks would be war crimes and devastating for the region.
  • Quote: "I think the way they would have raised the escalation ladder a bit more would have been to attack these desalination plants...which are very vital infrastructure." (Patrick Wintour, 05:09)

5. Control of the Strait of Hormuz

• Iran maintains practical control, allowing select shipments (e.g., South Korea, Japan, India, China) while restricting Western access. Oil flow is leveraged—too much released, prices fall, undermining Iran’s own interests.
  • Quote: "It's all being done under the control of the Iranians...Their big metric of their success is what the oil price is standing at." (Patrick Wintour, 08:50)

6. Regional and Global Risk Assessment

• With Trump isolated from Western allies and NATO, and Iran both wounded and combative, the standoff feels like a ticking time bomb.
  • There's speculation over Trump’s next move:
    • He could be “laughed at” and tempted to seek face-saving aggression, such as a land invasion of islands in the Strait (“try to actually militarily take control”).
    • Such actions are considered dangerous, costly, and possibly classified as war crimes—drawing uncomfortable comparisons to Russia’s actions in Ukraine.
    • Quote: "That might be the military saying...that is a better way to pursue this than just some kind of retributive attack...which would be a war crime anyway." (Patrick Wintour, 10:10)
• Substantial U.S. military presence is noted, but Wintour doubts the feasibility and wisdom of a direct military takeover of strategic islands, emphasizing the necessity for a diplomatic resolution.
  • Quote: "I just think that's going to be really, really difficult to pull off in the end. There has to be a sort of diplomatic solution to all this." (Patrick Wintour, 11:06)

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Notable Quotes & Moments (with Timestamps)

• On Trump’s unpredictability:
  “Trying to work out what Trump has done, and we’re all living in his head spaces is kind of quite grueling activity.”
  – Patrick Wintour (02:26)

• On Iran’s resilience:
  “You can wipe out the leaders and you can weaken them, but ultimately they renew and reproduce.”
  – Patrick Wintour (07:56)

• On oil market manipulation:
  "The Iranians got to judge it right, because if they let too much oil onto the market, then the oil price will descend—and that's not what they want."
  – Patrick Wintour (08:50)

• On potential escalation:
  “What Iran is threatening could be intensely dangerous and destabilizing in the Middle East and therefore, for the wider world.”
  – Lucy Half (09:36)

• On the prospects for resolution:
  “I just think that’s going to be really, really difficult to pull off in the end. There has to be a sort of diplomatic solution to all this.”
  – Patrick Wintour (11:06)

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Timeline of Key Segments

| Timestamp | Topic/Content | |:-------------:|------------------------------------------------------| | 01:00 – 01:32 | Trump’s deadline extension & the ambiguity of deal | | 02:26 – 03:46 | Analysis: Media confusion, Trump’s leadership style | | 03:46 – 05:09 | Nature of US-Iran talks, use of intermediaries | | 04:43 – 05:58 | Market reactions, oil prices, escalation scenarios | | 05:58 – 07:56 | Iran’s resilience, regime stability, regional divides | | 08:36 – 09:36 | Hormuz blockades, shipping, impact on oil flow | | 09:36 – 11:06 | Future risks, potential US military escalation | | 11:06 – 11:40 | Risks of direct confrontation, warning about war |

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Conclusion

This episode offers urgent, clear-eyed context for a volatile phase in US-Iranian relations. Despite apparent American backpedaling and continuing Iranian brinkmanship, both sides remain at a dangerous impasse, with worrisome risks for regional security and global markets. Diplomacy, despite its frustrations and ambiguities, is cast as the only plausible escape from the cycle of escalation.

For a deeper dive into related UK politics and international reactions, listeners are directed to "Politics Weekly." Tomorrow, "Today in Focus" promises on-the-ground coverage from Lebanon.

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Transcript

[Lucy Half]

This is the Guardian.

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[Patrick Wintour]

Just before the markets opened, we decided to make this announcement. As ever, is Armageddon postponed? So we have to live on this sort of the edge the whole time? No, we have a very serious chance of making a deal that doesn't guarantee anything.

[Adam Grant]

I'm not guaranteeing anything.

[Patrick Wintour]

If I were a betting man, I'd bet for it, but again, I'm not guaranteeing anything. I think maybe the Americans are discovering that the Iranians are willing to go further up the escalation ladder. There isn't any sign that they're fracturing as a regime. They're taking big, big hits. They are aimed at one thing, which is survival.

[Lucy Half]

Trump says there's been productive talks with Iran as he extends a deadline on military strikes to force the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. But what's really going on from the Guardians today? In focus, this is the latest with me, Lucy Half. I'm joined by Patrick Wintour, the Guardian's diplomatic editor. Thanks for joining us again, Patrick. So quite a lot of confused messaging coming out of the White House over the weekend. We've had a post from the President Trump this morning on Truth Social, his social media platform, saying that he has postponed strikes on Iranian power plants because of talks between the US and the Iranians. But that came not long after this ultimatum of 48 hours for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. So obviously quite a convoluted picture there. But I wonder if you can help clarify if that's possible unravel all this.

[Patrick Wintour]

Well, there was a very good Tweet by the FT's Washington correspondent Edward Luce said it's a rather odd situation. We have to wait to see what Tehran's saying before we understand the truth of the matter because trying to work out what Trump has done, and we're all living in his head spaces is kind of quite grueling activity. But it certainly seems that just before the markets opened, and I think that's significant, he decided to make this announcement that he was holding back for five days, but as ever, is Armageddon postponed. So we have to live on this sort of the edge the whole time. But it doesn't seem like there was any direct talks between Iran and the Americans which led to this, what must look like a decision. What's called this. Taco Trump always chickens out. Looks like another decision to climb down. And he hasn't got anything back in return as yet.

[Lucy Half]

Yeah, we'll come on to the markets in a second. But as far as these talks are concerned. So Trump says that there were very productive conversations between us and Iranian officials. Conversations, he says, about complete. Complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East. But the Iranian side is much less clear about whether those talks took place or to what extent they were able to.

[Patrick Wintour]

Well, there's bound to be some crowing going on in Tehran about this and saying we haven't spoken to him at all. But it's gradually emerging that there were some kind of talks happening. And those would probably be via one of two intermediaries, either Oman or Turkey, both of whom have got kind of respect in Washington and in Tehran. And it may be that the talks were very much focused on this issue of how to reopen the straight of Hormuz and on what terms. And then that might broaden out into a wider discussion of how Iran and America are going to live with one another. But we've been living in this situation where everyone's been escalating and escalating. And I think maybe the Americans are discovering that the Iranians are willing to go further up the escalation ladder than either America or its allies are willing to go. And so that may be leading to some considerations inside Washington as to what to do.

[Lucy Half]

Yes. And this blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and we're now entering the fourth week of this war. Oil prices over the weekend were $113 a barrel, even higher than they were last week. Since that post on Truth Social this morning, oil prices have plummeted. There's been some improvement in the markets. Like you say, there's that Wal expression. Taco Trump always chickens out. But that seems to be quite an important factor in all of this.

[Patrick Wintour]

Yes. I mean, I think the markets are going to move according to whatever the latest posting from Donald Trump is. But I Think at some point we're gonna have to move on from taking him as seriously and literally as we do. But it's so difficult when the stakes are so high and when we're seeing such carnage occurring throughout the Middle East. And I think, you know, you'll bear in mind, I mean, how the Iranians were thinking in terms of seeing their own electricity grid being attacked. I've seen what's happened to Ukra, and I think they were both worried and angry and defiant. And there would have been consequences back in the sense of there would have been a big Iranian response. And I think the way they would have raised the, the escalation ladder a bit more would have been to attack these desalination plants inside the, which are

[Lucy Half]

these facilities that clean water, a very vital infrastructure that would, I mean, Amnesty International say that that sort of attack would account to a war. It would cause huge disruption across the Middle East. But that, but that was in response to this 48 hour deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Do you think because of this taco type quality of Trump, his unreliability, that Iran feels it's in a stronger position to keep going, to not bow to us?

[Patrick Wintour]

I think at the moment there isn't any sign that they're either fracturing as a regime or that the sort of resilience of the nation is under attack. I mean, obviously they're taking, making big, big hits and their whole kind of structure of the security state is being attacked daily. But they are, as people have, many people have said they are aimed at one thing, which is survival, and they believe they can achieve that. And there are differing estimates around about how many missile launches they've still got. And even if it's a third of what they had before, that's still enough to cause a lot of damage. And there's sort of ambiguity Gulf states as to how to continue with this. I mean, there are some, like the United Arab Emirates, that would probably like to go on the offensive against Iran, but there are others that are holding back. And I think the Gulf states, whatever they do, they'll do it together. So there's no movement of a really significant nature there.

[Lucy Half]

But as we were discussing last week, there has been huge damage to the Iranian regime. The supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, obviously killed at the start of the conflict. His son Mujtaba Khamenei, reportedly to be injured. We had Lara Jani, this very senior official in the regime, also killed last week. So, I mean, we've talked about that unity that they're trying to project, but they must be in a much weakened position.

[Patrick Wintour]

Yes, but they seem to be able to keep going. Ultimately, the measure of it is whether they're still attacking Gulf states, whether they've still got the straight or full moose under their stranglehold. And they do so even if the names on the leadership are changing, or sometimes there are interim leaders or the Ministry of Intelligence is, you know, there's a vacancy, it doesn't matter. They're still functioning as a state. There are 90 million people there. There's about a thousand families that are involved in Iranian political leadership in various ways. So you. You just cannot wipe them all out. You can wipe out the leaders and you can weaken them, but ultimately they renew and reproduce.

[Lucy Half]

Yeah. And in terms of the state of play in the Strait of H, I mean, obviously, military attacks have continued over the weekend. The Strait of Hormuz is still technically blockaded. There has been some ships, about 100 let through.

[Patrick Wintour]

Yes. But it's all being done under the control of the Iranians. The Iranians are deciding which ships can go through and which can't. And there are negotiations going on between South Korea sort of ringing up saying, can we get our ships through? We haven't done anything to offend you. Japan's in sort of quite a good odor with the Iranians, partly because the foreign minister used to be the ambassador to Japan. Obviously, the Indians are getting some ships through, and so. And the Chinese, which is the main market, are getting ships, but the west is not getting any ships through. And also, the Iranians got to judge it right, because if they let too much oil onto the market, then the oil price will descend, and that's not what they want. Their big measure, their big metric of their success is what the oil price is standing at.

[Lucy Half]

But ultimately, there is this sense, I think, of just a bit of a ticking time bomb. I mean, this ultimatum that has been extended to five days to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. But very conflicting messages from a president who has been isolated from much of the west, from NATO, from allies, an Iran that is weakened but very determined. I mean, what Iran is threatening could be intensely dangerous and destabilizing in the Middle east and therefore, for the wider world. What are the risks in the next week?

[Patrick Wintour]

Well, the risks are that Donald Trump sort of looks again, he'll be laughed at. I'm sure today he'll find that very difficult to take. And he might, by tonight sort of revise his opinions, or he could Press ahead with this idea of some kind of land invasion to take these islands in straightforward moves and try to actually militarily take control. And that might be the military saying to him that is a better way to pursue this than just some kind of retributive attack on the energy facilities of, of Iran, which would be a war crime anyway. Yeah, being absolute clear is a daylight war crime because I mean, the British have described what the Russians do in Ukraine as barbaric. And I think it'd be very hard for the UK Attorney General not to say the same thing about America doing that to Iran's energies.

[Lucy Half]

And there are already a Large number of U.S. military personnel in the Strait of Hormuz, aren't there?

[Patrick Wintour]

They're moving in that direction. But there's huge risks involved in that. Trying to take islands which are quite close to the Iranian main coastland is going to be difficult because they can be fired at very easily. I don't, I mean it's fair to say that the Iranian navy is pretty well reduced, non existent, but you don't need very complicated boats to cause a lot of damage. And they'd have to hold this, the straits for indefinitely militarily. And I just think that's going to be really, really difficult to pull off in the end. There has to be a sort of diplomatic solution to all this.

[Lucy Half]

Well, it's going to be a quiet Newsweek. Patrick, thank you so much for your time.

[Patrick Wintour]

Pleasure.

[Lucy Half]

That's it for today. My huge thanks again to Patrick Wintour, the Guardian's diplomatic editor. And for more on how Trump's U turn has played out in the UK and what the government made of the SNL sketch about Keir Starmer, do listen to today's episode of our sister podcast, Politics Weekly. Tomorrow's episode of Today in Focus will be on the situation on the ground in Lebanon. The latest will be back as usual tomorrow night. This episode was presented by me, Lucy Half. It was produced by Bryony Moore. The lead producer was Zoe Hitch.

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