US and Iran exchange strikes: is Trump’s peace deal over? - The Latest

Summary

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Today in Focus – The Latest

Episode: US and Iran Exchange Strikes: Is Trump’s Peace Deal Over?
Host: Lucy Hough
Guest: Julian Borger, Senior International Correspondent
Date: July 9, 2026

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Overview

This episode of Today in Focus dives into renewed US-Iran hostilities following the collapse of a short-lived truce, with the US striking 170 sites in Iran in just two nights. Host Lucy Hough speaks with Julian Borger, Guardian's senior international correspondent reporting from Jerusalem, about the origins of this escalation, the complexities of the peace deal, the impact of concurrent geopolitical events, and the broader international response—focusing in particular on Israeli reactions and US diplomatic efforts.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Origins of the Escalation

• Iranian Strike on Shipping (00:52 - 01:20)

  • Iran attacked three commercial ships (including oil and LNG tankers) passing through the Strait of Hormuz on an unapproved route.
  • Central issue: Control and future administration of the Strait of Hormuz.

• Disputed Terms of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) (01:20 - 02:56)

  • The ceasefire agreement left ambiguity about Iran’s authority over the Strait.
  • Iran interprets the MoU as conferring it some control for at least 60 days, though the language is open to interpretation.
  • “Shooting at ships goes against the spirit of the Memorandum of Understanding.” — Julian Borger (01:51)
  • Presence of hardline factions in Iran acting as ‘spoilers’ to peace initiatives.

2. US Response and Trump’s Strategy

• Escalation Tactics (03:14 - 04:12)
  • 170 US strikes on Iran in two nights; Trump’s approach is to "escalate out" of crisis, then de-escalate.
  • “Every time they hit us, we’re going to hit them. … This is only going to get worse.” — Julian Borger quoting Trump’s logic (03:14)
  • Both sides likely want to avoid total war:
    • US: concerned about economic fallout and upcoming elections.
    • Iran: recently gained relief from sanctions, which has now been revoked.

3. Context: Funeral of Iran’s Former Supreme Leader

• Symbolic Targeting During Funeral Events (04:12 - 05:12)
  • Revival of hostilities coincides with the week-long funeral of Ali Khamenei, killed earlier in the conflict.
  • US strikes reportedly hit railway bridges between Tehran and Mashat, interpreted as a direct signal during the high-profile funeral.
  • “That looks very much like a pointed message.” — Julian Borger (04:42)

4. Israel and Regional Dynamics

• Israeli Government Response (05:12 - 06:41)

  • Israel has held security meetings, ready to defend itself if targeted.
  • PM Netanyahu internally benefits from collapse of US-Iran truce, which he opposed, especially as he faces elections.
  • “The US-Iran agreement and the prospect of something more enduring that addressed the nuclear issue as well would have been a complete disaster for [Netanyahu] going into elections.” — Julian Borger (06:08)
  • Hard to present the current situation as victory to the Israeli public.

• Israeli Public Discourse (06:41 - 07:41)

  • Israeli media more preoccupied with potential US sale of F35s to Turkey than with Iran.
  • Concerns about Turkey’s increasing alignment with Hamas and enhanced military capacity.

5. US Diplomacy: Personnel & Negotiations

• Uncertainty over Serious Diplomacy (07:41 - 08:49)
  • Ongoing back-channel negotiations hinted at, despite Trump’s public posturing.
  • Criticism of Trump’s reliance on non-experts:
    • “They’re taking two property developers who Trump trusts, who believe that they know everything about the history of the Middle East and nuclear power … but actually don’t.” — Julian Borger (08:09)
    • Steve Wyckoff and Jared Kushner blamed for the MoU's vagueness and resultant crisis.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Ceasefire’s Flawed Language:
  “I think the language in the memorandum was that Iran would make arrangement for its best efforts to ensure safe passage. Odd kind of language. But obviously shooting at ships doesn’t really fit under that.”
  — Julian Borger (01:51)

• On Trump’s Escalation Tactics:
  “It’s clear that Trump is trying to sort of escalate out of this. ... And he’s threatened this is only going to get worse. And this is how he approaches these kind of situations, trying to escalate out and then, as we’ve seen before, climb back down.”
  — Julian Borger (03:14)

• On the Significance of Timing:
  “The idea that this revival of military action is happening as the former supreme leader is buried is significant.”
  — Lucy Hough (04:12)

• On Israeli Perceptions and Concerns:
  “In recent days, the Israeli press have been more worried about the prospective US sale of F35 stealth warplanes to Turkey than the Iranian flare up.”
  — Julian Borger (06:55)

• On US Diplomacy:
  “They’re taking two property developers who Trump trusts... but actually don’t [know the region].”
  — Julian Borger (08:09)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:52 — Origins of escalation: Iranian attack on shipping
• 01:20 — Debate on the control of the Strait and MoU loopholes
• 03:14 — Trump’s military strategy and motivations
• 04:12 — Symbolic timing: US strikes during Khamenei’s funeral
• 05:12 — Israeli government’s position and political implications
• 06:41 — Press coverage and public concerns in Israel
• 07:41 — The role (or lack) of professional US diplomacy
• 08:09 — Critique of Trump’s team and the MoU’s drafting

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Takeaways

• Ambiguity in the US-Iran truce created dangerous misunderstandings around the Strait of Hormuz.
• Trump’s typical response is high-stakes escalation with an unclear path to de-escalation.
• Iran and the US both have incentives—economic, political—not to return to full-scale war, but friction points remain volatile.
• The timing of renewed violence, coinciding with high-profile funerals, further complicates prospects for peace.
• Israel benefits from and fuels the current hardline approach but is distracted by concerns over Turkey’s military advancements.
• US policy is hampered by lack of experienced diplomatic negotiation, contributing to instability.

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For a deeper dive into on-the-ground reporting from Iran during this historic week, listen to the July 8th episode of Today in Focus with diplomatic editor Patrick Wintour.

Transcript

[A]

This is the Guardian.

[B]

It's clear that Trump is trying to sort of escalate out of this. We just hit him very hard and I say we hit him 20 to one. Every time they hit us, we're going to hit them. 22 railway bridges have been hit between Tehran and Masha. Both sides, I think, would want to find a way of climbing down from the guardians today.

[A]

In focus, this is the latest. With me, Lucy, half Donald Trump has said the truce with Iran is over as the US has struck 170 sites in Iran over the past two nights. Julian Borger, you are senior international correspondent. We're speaking to you from Jerusalem. What's caused this escalation?

[B]

Well, on Monday night, Tuesday morning, Iran appears to have struck. Three ships were going through the Strait of Hormuz. And what seems to have happened is these ships, which included an oil tanker and LNG gas tanker, were going along a route that hadn't been approved by Iran's Revolutionary Guard, the irgc. And that seems to be at the crux of it, control of the strait.

[A]

Okay, yes, because control of the strait is clearly know the big issue, or was the big issue in terms of finding some kind of truce, ceasefire, but that it was quite broadly written, wasn't it? And I think contained many holes that we're starting to see. Now, Iran say they feel that the Memorandum of Understanding gave them control of this part. The US Disagrees. So do they have an argument here? Does, is, does Iran have, have a point?

[B]

Well, I think it's fair to say that shooting at ships goes against the spirit of the Memorandum of Understanding. I think that's true. I think the language in the memorandum was that Iran would make arrangement for its best efforts to ensure safe passage. Odd kind of language. But obviously shooting at ships doesn't really fit under that. And it's worth remembering that, that in Iran there are a lot of factions, groups, power centers who are very much against this whole agreement. So there are spoilers in there. But yes, it is hazy. There are implications that Iran does have a claim to have some kind of control. It's not supposed to make any charges or tolls for 60 days, but it is given that the opportunity to discuss with Oman and other states in the region what the future of the Strait should be, which implies some kind of, some kind of ownership.

[A]

Yeah, right. Well, at least clearer terms on this agreement on the Strait of Henry. So what's likely to happen next? Because, I mean, 170 strikes in two nights is a very large military offensive. Can we expect days of violence at that scale, do you think?

[B]

Well, it's clear that Trump is trying to sort of escalate out of this. It was about 80 strikes on the first night and then 90. And he's threatened this is only going to get worse. And this is how he approaches these kind of situations, trying to escalate out and then as we've seen before, climb back down. And I think it's likely both major parties in this situation don't want a return to a full scale war. US because of all the economic ripple effects from that and the approach of elections. And Iran because it's only just getting some relief after months of war and years of sanctions. And it was getting some sanctions relief on its oil exports that's now been revoked for the time being. I mean, both sides, I think, would want to find a way of climbing down.

[A]

Yeah, yeah. And moving forward back to this more stable position. But the timing of this is all very sensitive, isn't it, because it's the week long funeral of former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who was killed in the early strikes when war broke out at the end of February, that he is due to be buried today. So the idea that these revival of military action is happening as the former supreme leader is buried is significant.

[B]

Yeah, very significant. And most of while most, most of the targets have been along Iran's southern coast, there have been reports that two railway bridges have been hit between Tehran and Mashat, which is where the funeral is taking place. So, you know, that looks very much like a pointed message. It'd be presumably one of the routes that people attending the funeral would be hoping to go back on. So it does look like a message.

[A]

Yeah. And I would really recommend anyone to listen to Wednesday's episode of Today in Focus because our diplomatic editor Patrick Wintour was one of the very few foreign journalists to be allowed into Iran in this very historic week. You're in Jerusalem and Israel is obviously a key player in all of this. Given that the strikes were initiate. It was a US Israeli military operation on Iran. What's been the reaction from the Israeli government?

[B]

Well, the only public official reaction has been to have security meetings, defense meetings in the case of an escalation that hits Israel and Israel should be able to defend itself and strike back. There haven't been any sort of official cheering from the sidelines from Benjamin Netanyahu, but this clearly suits him, the agreement between the US And Iran because he

[A]

wanted no end to the war.

[B]

Absolutely. The U.S. iran agreement and the prospect of something more enduring that address the nuclear issue as well would have been a complete disaster for him going into elections because he vowed that he was going to get rid of the Iranian threat to Israel, which he's always portrayed as being existential. This was going to be what his delivery was for the electorate. The U. S. Iran deal definitely is not that.

[A]

Yes, yes. And it's impossible to sell a victory to the Israeli public as things currently stand. I'm just wondering also what you're hearing on the ground in Jerusalem and perhaps how this is being reported in the Israeli press.

[B]

Well, I think there's an expectation that this won't escalate back to full scale war and that there won't be an attack on Israel because that would be very unwise for Iran. In recent days, the Israeli press have been more worried about the prospective US sale of F35 stealth warplanes to Turkey than the Iranian flare up. And that is because they're very concerned about the route that Turkey is taking. Closer and closer to. Hamas has been very outspoken about Gaza. And so the idea that a potential adversary would have technology on a par with the best that Israel has is deeply worrying for the Israeli defense establishment.

[A]

Well, it's been a busy week for Donald Trump because he's also been at the NATO summit in Ankara where he's been making a series of very inflammatory statements on seizing Greenland, on cutting trade with Spain. He announced there that the truce with Iran was over. But are negotiations still going on behind the scenes? And one hopes that there are some serious US Diplomats that are engaged in this process to bring this to a close.

[B]

Well, that's been one of the questions all along. Are there serious US Diplomats involved in this? I mean, they're taking two property developers who Trump trusts who believe that they know everything about the history of the Middle east and nuclear power and nuclear weapons, but actually don't. And we're talking about Steve Wyckoff and Jared Kushner and they are being blamed by. By some, many in the US for the very vagueness of the MoU, the memorandum understanding with the holes that some are blaming for, of this flare up.

[A]

Yeah, well, goodness, it feels like Groundhog Day, Julian. But thank you so much for your time.

[B]

Thank you.

[A]

That's it for today. My huge thanks again to Julian Borger, the Guardian senior international correspondent. You can keep up with all his reporting and live coverage of this story [e-mail] and I really recommend today's episode of our sister podcast, Politics Weekly. Kieran Stacey and Jess Elgot will have a roundup from the week's news in Westminster. Thanks for listening to this episode of the Latest Today in Focus will be back in your feeds tomorrow morning. The latest will be back tomorrow night. This episode was presented by me, Lucy Hoff. It was produced by Angus, Neil and Leo Schick. The senior producer was Ryan Ramgoven.

[B]

England are still in the usa, and so are we. Join me, Max Rushton and a host of football experts as we overanalyze every game every day at the World cup, including England's forthcoming quarter final against Norway. It's Haaland versus Gay. It's Herring versus Cod. It's Vikings versus Agonizing, tragic failure. The Guardians World Cup Daily. Available wherever you get your podcasts.

[A]

This is the Guardian.