US troops killed: has Trump lost control of Iran war? – The Latest

Summary

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Podcast Summary: Today in Focus – "US troops killed: has Trump lost control of Iran war? – The Latest"

Date: July 21, 2026
Host: Lucy Hough
Guest: Julian Borger (Senior International Correspondent, The Guardian)
Duration: ~10 minutes

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Episode Overview

This concise episode of "Today in Focus: The Latest" explores the rapidly escalating tensions between the US and Iran following the deaths and injuries of US military personnel in the Middle East. Host Lucy Hough is joined by Julian Borger, The Guardian’s senior international correspondent, to assess the implications for President Trump, the regional and global risks, and the complexity of ongoing diplomatic efforts. The episode dissects the political, military, and economic repercussions, particularly as the US approaches crucial midterm elections.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Rising US Casualties and Domestic Political Impact

[01:05 – 02:37]

• Host Lucy Hough summarizes the current situation: US-Iran strikes have entered their tenth consecutive day, with significant US casualties—deaths over the weekend, and nearly 100 injuries in the last two weeks.
• Julian Borger points out that while public opposition to the war had mostly been for economic reasons (e.g., higher petrol prices), US casualties bring it to a new and much more politically dangerous level for President Trump:
  • "If you add into that American servicemen and women are beginning to get killed and injured, then that is a whole other level." – Julian Borger [01:49]
• Borger highlights Trump’s historical reluctance to put US soldiers in harm's way, preferring airstrikes over troop deployments, and how casualties fundamentally undermine that strategy, especially with upcoming elections.

2. Trump’s Dilemma: Retaliation vs. Diplomacy

[02:37 – 04:17]

• With midterm elections approaching and public sentiment souring, Trump is under intense political strain.
• Trump’s response has been to promise that "Iran will pay many times over," launching a series of strikes. Borger analyzes the dual objectives:
  • Retaliation as an immediate political imperative (“revenge”).
  • Attempts to coerce Iran into a new diplomatic settlement from a position of strength—though so far without success.
  • "Without any real strategy, that is going to carry on until something else comes up, something shakes loose in the negotiations." – Julian Borger [03:59]

3. Regional Isolation and Israel’s Role

[04:17 – 05:22]

• Lucy raises Israel’s decision not to get involved in this round of fighting.
• Borger suggests Israeli involvement is less a practical military issue, but more a sensitive political problem domestically, as initial perceptions had been that "Israel led the US into this war." Now, US isolation is heightened.

4. Iran’s Military Capabilities & Ongoing Attacks

[05:22 – 06:49]

• The episode reviews Iran's continued ability to damage US interests:
  • Targeting US bases across the region — specific mention of the Muafak Salti air base in Jordan (where the US suffered casualties), Bahrain, Qatar, and Kuwait.
  • "Despite all the claims we've heard from the Trump administration over the weeks and months that Iran still has the capability to hurt the US and to pinpoint and to hit these bases." – Julian Borger [06:20]
• The US downplays the severity of casualties, noting most injuries were mild concussion, but Borger underscores the luck involved and the potential for far worse outcomes.

5. Houthi Threats and Global Economic Consequences

[06:49 – 08:30]

• The Iran-backed Houthis threaten to blockade the Red Sea’s Bab El Mandeb Strait, echoing Iran’s earlier moves in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Borger explains the severe global economic impact if both choke points are closed:
  • Risk of oil prices returning to $120 per barrel
  • Major disruption to global shipping, trade, oil, and gas supplies
  • "If they do have that capability, that could be hugely damaging to an already very damaged global economy." – Julian Borger [08:27]

6. Negotiations, Fragile Diplomacy, and the 'June Memorandum' Collapse

[08:30 – 10:18]

• Despite ongoing violence, diplomatic talks are still technically active—though with setbacks.

• The 'June Memorandum of Understanding,' negotiated by real estate figures and not diplomats (Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner), collapsed due to:

  • Vague terms and no specifics (e.g., no map for Strait of Hormuz shipping routes)
  • Ambiguities left both sides interpreting the deal differently
  • "No diplomat would have gone away and thought that they had an agreement... its collapse was really inevitable because both sides came away thinking different things." – Julian Borger [09:27]

• The current talks, mediated by Oman, seek practical arrangements for shipping through the Strait, but progress is unclear.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Trump’s struggles:
  "If there's one consistent thing about Trump over the years, he's been very reluctant to put American soldiers in harm's way. He has no problem with bombing other people... So this is something he is trying to avoid and yet it has happened now." – Julian Borger [01:55]

• On the political stakes:
  "When you start to then have US Military personnel coming home in coffins, the visuals of that are likely to increase that unpopularity." – Lucy Hough [02:15]

• On the breakdown of Trump’s past diplomatic solution:
  "The problem with the Memorandum of Understanding is... it was full of holes. I mean, no diplomat would have gone away and thought that they had an agreement." – Julian Borger [09:12]

• On the Houthi threat:
  "If they are able to do that... then the two big choke points in terms of global trade, in terms of oil and gas coming out of the Middle east, those will have been closed. And then you can see oil prices potentially going back where they were at the height of the war." – Julian Borger [07:42]

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Timestamps for Major Segments

• 00:41 – 01:42: Introduction, recap of recent US casualties and political backdrop
• 01:42 – 02:37: Julian Borger on public opinion and Trump’s aversion to US troop risk
• 02:37 – 04:17: Trump’s possible strategies—retaliation, lack of diplomatic solutions
• 04:17 – 05:22: Israel’s non-involvement and implications for the US
• 05:22 – 06:49: Iran’s attacks, US casualties, and damage control spin
• 06:49 – 08:30: Houthi threat to Red Sea shipping, impact on global economy
• 08:30 – 10:18: Status of negotiations, collapse of June MOU, hopes for Oman mediation

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Conclusion

The episode provides a brisk yet thorough examination of the dangerous crossroads reached in the US-Iran conflict, the mounting domestic pressure on President Trump, and the fragile nature of both military and diplomatic fronts. It is clear that the situation remains volatile, with global risks escalating and no straightforward path to resolution in sight.

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Transcript

[Lucy Hoff]

This is the Guardian.

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[Julian Borger]

Iran still has the capability to hurt the U.S. they were lucky. The casualties could have been far worse. We hit him very hard again tonight and we did that in honor of the great patriots. He couldn't accept American casualties. The real problem for him is to get to somewhere some agreement that he can claim is a diplomatic triumph from the Guardians today.

[Lucy Hoff]

In focus, this is the latest. With me, Lucy Hoff. We're now in the tenth consecutive day of renewed strikes between the US And Iran as tensions re escalate in the region. Julian Borger, you're our senior international correspondent. I think most significant for Trump is the deaths of military personnel over the weekend in the Middle east, in addition to the nearly 100 that have been injured in the region in the last two weeks. What are the implications for Trump on that, do you think?

[Julian Borger]

Well, they're very serious because this is already a very unpopular war in the US Public opinion mostly for economic reasons up to now price of petrol. But if you add into that American servicemen and women are beginning to get killed and injured, then that is a whole other level. And that's something, if there's one consistent thing about Trump over the years, is he's been very reluctant, reluctant to put American soldiers in harm's way. He has no problem with bombing other people and likes to see war in that way, just bombing the enemy and keeping American soldiers away from it. So this is something he is trying to avoid and yet it has happened now. And so the stakes for him are growing and the jeopardy for him, especially politically with the elections coming up, that is getting worse.

[Lucy Hoff]

Yeah, because we have these very crucial November midterms coming up, don't we? As you say, this is a war that is enormously unpopular and increasingly so in the United States, not just because of the impact on consumers, the petrol pump and elsewhere, but when you start to then have US Military personnel coming home in coffins, the visuals of that are likely to increase that unpopularity. The stakes are enormous for him. He has responded for now by saying that that Iran will pay many times over and has carried out a series of US Strikes. Do you think those will continue?

[Julian Borger]

Well, there are two things, really. One is the sort of the revenge and that, you know, he couldn't accept American casualties and then said, okay, well, that's call it off. That's not in his DNA, and that doesn't work politically. The longer question is, will he keep on, on up these attacks in the hope that it will shake something loose in the Iranian negotiating position and he can get what he wants on the negotiating table? Up to now, that really hasn't worked, and there's no sign that it's going to begin to work. But he's apart from that, really out of ideas. And of course, he has the military at his shoulder, who always have a plan of how things can be done and more things to bomb. And so, for the time being, as there isn't a diplomatic solution, that's all he has. And so without any real strategy, that is going to carry on until something else comes up, something shakes loose in the. In the negotiations.

[Lucy Hoff]

Yeah. Which is still ongoing, and we'll talk about those in more detail. But in terms of the options available to him, I mean, as ever, it is impossible to work out what's going on in Trump's head. But will he be looking to achieve another kind of fragile truce? And I think crucial to that is the fact that Israel have said that they have no interest in getting involved in this latest round of fighting. So that leaves him quite isolated on that front, doesn't it?

[Julian Borger]

I think it's more a problem for him if Israel gets involved. It's a problem in terms of perceptions, political perceptions at home, which was originally that it was Israel that had led the US into this war.

[Lucy Hoff]

So.

[Julian Borger]

And it makes very little military difference, Israeli involvement. So that probably is not a huge factor. But the real problem for him is to get to somewhere, some agreement that he can claim is a diplomatic triumph, as he tried to do with the June Memorandum of understanding.

[Lucy Hoff]

Yeah. A very fragile truce that was much trumpeted at the time, but has fallen apart very quickly in terms of what Iran are up to. They are carrying out their own strikes in the Strait of Hormuz, but also in the wider Middle east region, Right?

[Julian Borger]

Yes. They aimed their missiles and drones at U.S. bases and concentrations of U.S. forces in the region. So Jordan in particular, there's a Jordanian air base out in the eastern desert called Muafak Salti, which they've managed to hit, and this is where the three US Casualties were and many of the injuries, but also in Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait. But what it shows is that despite all the claims we've heard from the Trump administration over the weeks and months that Iran still has the capability to hurt the US and to pinpoint and to hit these bases. So it shows that they still have missiles and drones and that they are relatively accurate. The US has stressed that most of these 100 casualties were mild concussion. Most are back on duty. But that shows they were lucky that a missile drone hit in a concentration of US forces and the casualties could have been far worse.

[Lucy Hoff]

Yeah, quite a lot of spin going on in the last few days. Another significant development is that the Iran backed Houthis have also threatened to blockade the Red Sea. Presumably inspired by what Iran has been doing in the Strait of Hormuz and the huge ripple effect that's had to had on the global economy. And how empowering that that's been for Iran. How significant would you say that intervention or that threat is potentially?

[Julian Borger]

Very, very significant. Houthis up to now have been sort of the bog, the dog that didn't bark. Because they are, they are a major proxy force, partner force of the Iran, who have this ability to close the other main waterway out of the Middle east, which is the Bab El Manda Strait. If they are able to do that, in a way, they just have to hit a few ships to put off shipping companies from using that strait. Then the two big choke points in terms of global trade, in terms of oil and gas coming out of the Middle east, those will have been closed. And then you can see oil prices potentially going back where they were at the height of the war, $120. So that is their capability. Now, whether they will follow through on their threat and whether they are able to hit ships and put off the shipping companies and the insurance companies, well, we'll see over the next few days. But if they do have that capability,

[Lucy Hoff]

that could be hugely damaging to an already very damaged global economy. So you mentioned talks are still ongoing. The Memorandum of Understanding still stands. It seems, despite what's going on in the Middle east, talks are continuing. But are they progressing? Because it feels like yet again we've taken a bit of a step backwards, I suppose.

[Julian Borger]

We don't know if they're progressing until something comes of it. I mean, new ideas seem to be being explored. The problem with the Memorandum of Understanding is, well, it was negotiated by two real estate developers who were sort of freelancing for the U.S. steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. And it was full of holes. I mean, no diplomat would have gone away and thought that they had an agreement. For example, it was largely about the Strait of Hormuz. There was no attached map of where ships and what route ships could take through the Strait of Hormuz. So it was left very up in the air. The question of who has control was very much left in the air and so was full of ambiguities. And so its collapse was really inevitable because both sides came away thinking different things about it with their own interpretations. So what we understand is that the center of talks right now, the behind the scenes negotiations involve Iran and Oman, who are on both sides of the Strait, to come to an agreement on how the flow of ships can be jointly regulated. And if that can be done, then potentially there is the prospect of going back to the negotiating table and redoing that memorandum understanding in a way that

[Lucy Hoff]

works this time doesn't sound like easy work. Julian, thank you so much for your time.

[Julian Borger]

Thanks, thanks for having me.

[Lucy Hoff]

That's it for today. My huge thanks again to Julian Borger, the Guardian's senior international correspondent. You can keep up with all his reporting [e-mail] as well as live coverage of the crisis in the Middle Middle East. And I really recommend heading over to our sister podcast Stateside with Kyan Carter. Carter Sherman is speaking to the classicist Mary Beard about Christopher Nolan's adaptation of the Odyssey and why it's left her a bit disappointed. Thanks for listening to this episode of the latest Today in Focus will be back in your feeds as usual tomorrow morning. The latest will be back tomorrow night. This episode was presented by me, Lucy Hoff. It was produced by Angus Neal. The senior producer was Ryan Ramgobin. The executive producer was Zoe Hitch. This is the Guardian.

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