Today in Focus – "Will Trump make a deal with Iran’s new supreme leader?"
The Guardian, The Latest | March 9, 2026
Host: Lucy Hoffman | Guest: Patrick Wintour, Diplomatic Editor

Overview

This episode dissects the seismic shift in Iran’s leadership after the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, focusing on the appointment of his son, Mujtaba Khamenei, as the new supreme leader. Lucy Hoffman and The Guardian's diplomatic editor, Patrick Wintour, explore the implications for the ongoing war, internal dynamics of power, the influence of the IRGC, the reaction from the US and Israel (including former President Trump), and the public mood within Iran.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Unprecedented Succession Amid War

• Context: Ten days into an explosive new war, Iran faces a sudden leadership change after Ali Khamenei is killed in a US-Israeli airstrike.
• Who is Mujtaba Khamenei?
  • "There’s actually only one video extant of Moshtaba speaking in public." (Patrick Wintour, 01:52)
  • Has wielded considerable behind-the-scenes power for two decades as deputy chief of staff—known privately but nearly invisible publicly.

Dynastic Succession: Symbolism & Controversy

• Dynasty Problem: Mujtaba’s selection is controversial, evoking the very monarchy the revolution toppled.

  • "The dynastic element was a big obstacle to overcome because it’s resonant of this being a monarchy, which was what the revolution was designed to get rid of." (Patrick Wintour, 02:44)
  • Resistance existed; many feared a break with revolutionary ideals.

• Role of the IRGC:

  • Their influence was decisive.
  • "The IRGC…is incredibly powerful, and I think they were advocating his case very strongly." (Patrick Wintour, 03:25)

Mujtaba’s Power and Influence on the War

• His role in war efforts:
  • Formally, he is in charge but may focus more on political and diplomatic decisions than military tactics.
  • “He’ll be more involved in those kind of political, diplomatic decisions rather than which missile being sent where.” (Patrick Wintour, 04:08)
  • Devolution of decision-making on military targeting has already occurred—signaling shared or decentralized command. (04:17)

Preparedness and Iranian Resilience

• Was the regime prepared?
  • Succession had long been planned, but the assassination took everyone by surprise, especially due to collateral family deaths.
  • Mujtaba’s own survival status and physical condition remain unclear due to widespread rumors and absence from public view.
  • "You wonder about actually his emotional state...we’ve yet to see him in public." (Patrick Wintour, 05:16)

Security Risks & International Threats

• Targeted by Israel and US, under scrutiny by Trump:

  • Both Israel and the US have signaled willingness to continue to target Iran’s top leadership.
  • "He is in mortal danger because the Israelis have said they will try to assassinate whoever was chosen and they will also try to assassinate the people that chose him." (Patrick Wintour, 06:16)

• US (Trump) stance:

  • Trump initially called Mujtaba’s appointment unacceptable, but has since grown more cautious—possibly considering Mujtaba as a possible negotiation partner, aiming for an exit from the war due to surging oil prices.
  • "Trump has been relatively, by his standards, quiet about condemning him since his appointment...he’s also looking for a way out of this war, given where oil prices are." (Patrick Wintour, 06:22)

Iranian Public Reaction & Internal Dissent

• Continuity amid Repression:

  • For Iranians, the Khamenei name is steeped in association with harsh crackdowns—including this year’s suppression of student protests with tens of thousands reportedly killed. (Lucy Hoffman, 07:37)
  • “There’s a huge element of continuity in this appointment. The name is enough.” (Patrick Wintour, 07:59)

• Debates within Iran:

  • Reformist groups reportedly tried to delay the succession, arguing the political future should be debated post-war.
  • Controversy over whether the Assembly of Experts met fully in person, or if procedures were skirted due to security fears. (Patrick Wintour, 08:50)

War Progress: Is Iran Winning?

• Iran’s Position:
  • Oil prices have surged over $100, echoing shocks of previous major conflicts—a situation Iran can exploit as the US and Israel sought regime change.
  • “The very fact that they’ve survived for a whole week is from their perspective, is a triumph…they will say…there’s been…a rally round the flag effect, that no country likes to be attacked, however much they may disagree with their own government.” (Patrick Wintour, 10:27)
  • Despite survival, the state’s institutions are being "demolished"; control over Iranian airspace lost.
  • "To say that Iran is winning this conflict is probably deeply premature." (Patrick Wintour, 09:52)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "The potential is he's going to last three hours or three decades." (Patrick Wintour on Mujtaba’s precarious security, 00:50 & 06:11)
• "The IRGC…is incredibly powerful, and I think they were advocating his case very strongly." (Patrick Wintour, 03:25)
• "You wonder about actually his emotional state…we've yet to see him in public." (Patrick Wintour, 05:16)
• “There’s a huge element of continuity in this appointment. The name is enough.” (Patrick Wintour, 07:59)
• “The very fact that they’ve survived for a whole week is…a triumph.” (Patrick Wintour, 10:27)

Timeline of Major Segments

| Timestamp | Topic | |-----------|-----------------------------------------------------------| | 00:50 | Opening insight: Mujtaba’s peril and Trump’s quiet stance | | 01:16 | Introduction to the episode’s context and Patrick Wintour | | 01:52 | Profile: Who is Mujtaba Khamenei? | | 02:44 | The dynastic dimension and IRGC influence | | 03:50 | Mujtaba’s likely role in the war | | 04:57 | Was Iran prepared for this transition? | | 05:42 | Security threats and Trump’s calculations | | 07:37 | Iranian public’s likely reaction; crackdown context | | 08:50 | Internal political debates and Assembly of Experts | | 09:52 | Iran’s wartime position, sovereignty, and survival |

Tone and Language

• Analytical and sober, yet urgent; conveys the gravity of the instability and unpredictability now gripping Iran and the region.
• Patrick Wintour’s perspective mixes deep experience with guarded caution, repeatedly emphasizing uncertainty and the potential for rapid change.

Conclusions

• Iran’s leadership transition is marred by internal opposition, powerful military influence, and daunting security challenges.
• Mujtaba Khamenei, though little-known publicly, represents continuity and caution for the regime; his rule begins under direct threats from Israel and the US.
• Trump’s approach is calculated, perhaps searching for negotiation openings as oil prices soar and traditional strategies falter.
• Despite surviving the first week post-assassination, the Iranian state is battered, the public deeply divided, and the course of the war—and its ultimate outcome—remain far from settled.

For more, tune in to the next morning’s Today in Focus episode for on-the-ground perspectives from inside Iran.