Lucy Hoffman (3:38)

Right. So the IRGC was close to Mujtab Al Khamenei, and they seem to have been very influential in this decision. So does that mean that Mujtabat Khamenei will be in charge of the war efforts from now on? How clear cut is that?

Patrick Wintour (3:50)

I think nominally you will be in charge of the war efforts. I mean, I think you might be more in charge of these decisions about how to end the war rather than how to conduct it. I mean, that is a kind of military issue. And I think the big strategic decision has been made by the Iranians, which is to attack not just Israel, but also these Gulf states, which is obviously a very effective thing that they've decided to do. But it's also causing them a huge amount of diplomatic angst. So I think it'll be more involved in those kind of political, diplomatic decisions rather than which missile being sent where. And one of the elements of this war is, I think we've seen a big devolution of power in decision making about targeting. And that was announced in effect by the IRGC very early in the war.

Lucy Hoffman (4:34)

How prepared was the Iranian regime for this to happen? I mean, clearly Iran must have been looking overseas at what happened in Venezuela with the strikes and the capture of Maduro. They were also aware that there had been direct strikes on Iranian very senior officials a few months ago. So there must have been contingency planning for the event of Ali Khamenei's death.

Patrick Wintour (4:57)

Well, there's been planning and discussion and rumors around his success for 20 years, given he's 86, but was 86 rather, the assassination and the effectiveness of the assassination, because so many other people were wiped out, did take people by surprise. And indeed, there was doubt as to whether Machopol himself had survived because not only has his father died, his mother's died, I think his wife has died, and many other relations. So you, you wonder about actually his emotional state, just as a human being, as well as his own physical state, because there were rumors that he'd been killed as well, and we've yet to see him in public, and so we don't know exact physical state he's in.

Lucy Hoffman (5:42)

But also stepping into a role, given what's happened to his father, I mean, unimaginable security around him, one expects, given the infiltration of Israeli intelligence into Iran that allowed them to carry out this strike on Ali Khamene. I mean, we heard from Donald Trump last week saying that Mujtaba Khamenei would be an unacceptable choice. Israel has indicated that it would try to. To kill him. Is it safe to say that his, his days are fairly numbered?

Patrick Wintour (6:11)

Well, the potential is he's going to last three hours or three decades, given his age. But, yes, he is in mortal danger because the Israelis have said they will try to assassinate whoever was chosen and they will also try to assassinate the people that chose him. The Gu states have been mentioning this privately, that actually Trump has been relatively, by his standards, quiet about condemning him since his appointment. He was a bit more cautious and talked about, let's wait and see. Because if he is still in favor of this Venezuela option of finding a leader inside Iran, he needs to. He needs to find somebody. And it may be that this is the character he needs, particularly since I imagine he's also looking for a way out of this war, given where oil prices are. He can't just assert is the way he does is I will choose the next supreme leader. That is just not going to happen. This, this is a sovereign nation which is incredibly proud of its own history and its rights, and it's simply not going to let that happen. So I think he needs to, for a moment, reflect on whether this is a man that has a younger man, whether there's a possibility he's more pragmatic and less stuck in his ways because his father had become incredibly entrenched in his thinking. So at least he should test out what this new leader represents.

Lucy Hoffman (7:37)

But for Iranians, the name Khamenei will be synonymous with the brutal crackdown earlier this year on protesters. Tens of thousands reportedly killed, many of them very young university students. I mean, for them, this must be devastating to have the son of a Hamane who carried out such a brutal crackdown on its own people.

Patrick Wintour (7:59)

Yes, I mean, I don't think there's any point pretending that there's a huge element of continuity in this appointment. I mean, it's the name is enough. And I think there was also an argument which is pretty subterranean and hard to grasp, but I think there was an attempt to try to delay the announcement by more reformist groups who are arguing, well, we don't really know what the political context in which we're going to be operating when this war ends. And would it not be sensible for the current transitional leadership, which was of three people, to remain in situ until we knew how the war ended and what Iran was needed? Iran would obviously need to have a huge debate about its future at the end of this war and whether you are sort of, in a sense, predetermining or kind of precluding how that debate can go by making the announcement of the new leader before the debate can start. That was the argument that was going on inside the leadership. There was also an argument about whether, in fact, it is just simply too dangerous to try to bring together this body that was to elect the new leader, the assembly of Experts. And there was a lot of subterfuges whether, and it's still unclear whether they did actually meet fully in person or whether any parts of the assembly met today.

Lucy Hoffman (9:14)

In Focus we'll be doing a longer look tomorrow morning at the view inside Iran. But for now, is it safe to say that Iran is entering the second week of this conflict in a relatively strong position, given you touched on oil prices, but they have shot to over $100 a barrel, which at the levels not seen since the Ukraine war in 2022 or the start of that conflict. But also the fact that if the intention of the US And Israel was to bring about regime change, the fact that a member of Ali Khamenei's own family has been appointed shows that that has been unsuccessful, to say the least.

Patrick Wintour (9:52)

Yes, I think to a degree, the appointment could be seen as an assertion of sovereignty by Iran against America. But to say that Iran is winning this conflict is probably deeply premature. I mean, the whole of the state is being demolished in terms of the police force, the institution, political institutions of the state. And the Iranians simply have no control over their, their airspace. It's run by Israel and by America. There are, it's true, the oil price is a big problem. The Straits of Hormuz being shot is a huge bonus for the Iranians because in a way, they're not absolutely enforcing that. It's almost a kind of decision by the shipping companies themselves that it's too dangerous to go through. And the very fact that they've survived for a whole week is, from their perspective, is a triumph. And they will say and assert, and it's very difficult to measure that there's been, as there was in June last year, a rally round the flag effect, that no country likes to be attacked, however much they may disagree with their own government. There is obviously a section of society that still welcome the American offensive. But as more and more people die and more and more of Iran is blazed to ruin, the more there will be people that say that they oppose this American activity and that strengthens the regime.

Lucy Hoffman (11:22)

Yeah. And much could change very quickly, as we now know. Patrick, thank you so much for your time.

Patrick Wintour (11:26)

My pleasure.

Lucy Hoffman (11:28)

That's it for today. Thanks for listening to this episode of the latest, the new evening edition of Today in Focus. Today in FOCUS will be back with you tomorrow morning with the view from inside Iran with the hopes and fears of Iranians about what comes next. Also, do listen to our sister podcast Politics Weekly UK, on the political response to the oil price shock. The latest will be back with you tomorrow night. This episode was presented by me, Lucy Hoff. The senior producer was Ryan Ramgobin. The lead producer was Zoe Hitch. This is the Guardian.

Patrick Wintour (12:10)

Par le tu francais hablas espanol? Par le italiano?

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