Is Trump’s deal with Iran embarrassing for the US? – The Latest

Summary

Today in Focus – The Latest
Episode: Will US-Iran peace deal hold?
Host: Nosheen Iqbal
Guest: Julian Borger, Senior International Correspondent
Date: June 15, 2026
Duration: ~10 minutes

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Episode Overview

This episode of The Guardian’s evening podcast “The Latest” dives into the recently announced US-Iran peace deal. Host Nosheen Iqbal is joined by Julian Borger, the Guardian’s senior international correspondent, to unpack the announcement, the negotiation process, the uncertain details, regional implications (especially for Lebanon), and the profound cost of the conflict for ordinary Iranians and the region. The discussion also examines the US’s diminished standing, internal shifts in Iran, and questions whether the peace—and the deal—can really hold.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Peace Deal: Uncertainty and Questions

[01:41–03:43]

• No Published Details:
  Julian Borger emphasizes, “There are no public published details. There’s no text as yet. So confusion surrounds.” (02:09)
• What the Deal Isn't:
  • Does not address Iran’s nuclear program—the original cause of US and Israeli engagement.
• What the Deal Is (Possibly):
  • Focuses on the Strait of Hormuz—supposedly set to reopen, though timing is ambiguous (Trump says Friday, Iranians say over 30 days).
  • Disagreement on whether Iran will charge tolls/fees for passage (Trump denies; Iranian media says yes).
  • Conflicting reports about the unfreezing of Iran’s assets; Iran says some will be delivered soon, US side unclear.

2. Path to the Deal: Pakistan’s Role as Broker

[03:43–05:05]

• Pakistan’s Diplomatic Success:
  Field Marshal Asimouniyah (Pakistan’s Army head) “got on the right side of Trump before all this began”—reportedly praised Trump, earning his trust and making Pakistan an acceptable mediator.
• Persistence Pays Off:
  Both sides now see advantage in ending the conflict, making Pakistan’s relentless mediation efforts fruitful.
• Notable Quote:
  “Trump used to call him [Asimouniyah] his favorite field marshal... that always helps with Trump.” — Julian Borger (04:09–04:41)

3. The Human and Regional Cost of War

[05:05–06:10]

• Casualties and Destruction:
  3,000–6,000 killed in Iran, many thousands more injured; damages estimated at $200–300 billion. Lebanon also “suffered as many casualties... villages across the south flattened and much of their territory now occupied.”
• Civilian Suffering:
  “...water reservoirs taken out, the Minab school bombing, the bridges bombed, and... entire villages being completely razed...” — Nosheen Iqbal (06:08–06:10)

4. The Israel-Lebanon Factor: A Critical Vulnerability

[06:10–07:33]

• Israeli Non-Withdrawal:
  Israel announces military will stay in southern Lebanon despite the deal.
• Deal Fragility:
  Iran and Pakistan’s PM insist Lebanon is “an integral part” of the agreement, but Israeli actions make this a “vulnerability” and render the deal unstable.
• Wild Card:
  Netanyahu, “coming out to elections [with] not much to show,” is positioned as an unpredictable factor.

5. Next Steps: Technical Talks and Hurdles Ahead

[07:33–09:15]

• Upcoming Memorandum:
  To be signed Friday, leading to 60 days of “intensive technical talks”—nuclear program, sanctions, and assets on the table.
• Negotiation Barriers:
  • Rights to enrich uranium, existing stockpile, sanctions relief—all unresolved, complex, and time-sensitive.
  • Comparison to the 2015 Obama deal: “It’ll be evident if the deal that Trump comes to is worse than Barack Obama’s... very difficult for Trump.” (08:38)
• Pre-war Near-miss:
  Both sides reportedly close to a deal in February before hostilities.

6. Outcomes for the US and Iran

[09:15–10:32]

• US Position:
  “They went to a war and achieved none of their aims so far and was seen to have been held at bay by... drones and asymmetrical warfare.” — Julian Borger (09:32)
  • Economic impact: lasting inflation, higher petrol, agricultural costs.
  • Perceived global weakness: “Unable to protect... allies, their bases shown vulnerable.”
• Iranian Regime:
  • Survived, potentially strengthened internally; military now “completely in charge,” civilian leadership weakened.
  • “By all accounts it’s not a better Iran in any way.” (10:32)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “There are no public published details... So confusion surrounds.”
  — Julian Borger (02:09)

• “Pakistan has played its cards very well... They haven’t given up. They pursued both sides and they’ve been quite dogged in their diplomacy.”
  — Julian Borger (04:09)

• “We’re talking about maybe 3,000–6,000 people killed, many more injured. The estimates of the damage done: $200–300 billion.”
  — Julian Borger (05:24)

• “The Lebanese have suffered as many casualties... villages across the south flattened and much of their territory now occupied.”
  — Julian Borger (05:40)

• “There is a third player here, Israel, that has various motives. One is security, the other political… Netanyahu... is very much a wild card now when it comes to this ceasefire.”
  — Julian Borger (06:39)

• “It’ll be evident if the deal that Trump comes to is worse than Barack Obama’s. And this would be political, very difficult for Trump.”
  — Julian Borger (08:38)

• “The US emerges from this as a very much weakened player on the world stage.”
  — Julian Borger (10:28)

• “As far as we can tell, it’s a different Iran, but by all accounts it’s not a better Iran in any way.”
  — Julian Borger (10:32)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• [01:10] First analysis: US weakened, Iran not improved
• [01:41–03:43] What is and isn’t in the peace agreement; lack of detail
• [03:43–05:05] Pakistan as a peace broker; Trump and Field Marshal Asimouniyah
• [05:05–06:10] Civilian and infra­structure damage in Iran and Lebanon
• [06:10–07:33] Southern Lebanon’s occupation and implications for the deal
• [07:33–09:15] Upcoming Geneva talks, nuclear deal context, and challenges
• [09:15–10:32] US and Iranian outcomes, military in charge, long-term consequences

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Tone & Final Thoughts

The conversation is fact-driven, somber, and critical—skeptical of both sides’ spin while painting a picture of regional devastation and diplomatic fragility. Borger’s analysis suggests little cause for optimism: the underlying issues remain unaddressed, and the power dynamics within Iran and the US have shifted in ways that bode poorly for peace or democracy.

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For listeners:
This episode succinctly explains why the current “peace” is so precarious, who’s pulling the strings (and why), and the vast scale of both immediate and future challenges in the region. If you want a clear-eyed take on where things stand, this discussion delivers.

Transcript

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[Julian Borger]

The US emerges from this as a very much weakened player on the world stage. They went to a war and achieved none of their aims. The regime then claimed to have looked the US and Israel in the eye and faced them down as the fight. The military, who were the ones carrying out the suppression of dissent, are now completely in charge. As far as we can tell, it's a different Iran, but by all accounts it's not a better Iran in any way.

[Noshi Nikbal]

From the Guardians Today In Focus, this is the latest with me, Noshi Nikbal, Julian Borger, your senior international correspondent for the Guardian. And last night we finally have something close to approaching a peace deal. I mean, in characteristic Trump form, he sort of declared ships of the world, start your engines, let the oil flow. What exactly has happened? What's in this agreement?

[Julian Borger]

Well, bottom line, we don't really know. There are no public published details. There's no text as yet. So confusion surrounds. So we do know what it's not about. There doesn't seem to be any detail about the nuclear issues, which we should remember is what the US and Israel first went to war about. What it is about is Hormuz and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. But even there we don't really know the details. When exactly will it open? Trump is saying on Friday. The Iranians saying over a 30 day period after this deal is done. We don't know whether different versions on whether Iran will be henceforward taking tolls or some kind of fees. Trump again insists no, but Iranian media is saying yes, from now on it'll be under Iranian control and there will be some swarm of fees. The other part of it we don't know is about cash. The Iranians are saying that some of Iran's frozen assets will be unfrozen and will be delivered before even Friday and the signing and then more of it afterwards. And that is not clear certainly from the US side. So a lot of uncertainty about the details.

[Noshi Nikbal]

So I mean, without pointing out the fact that the US has won a victory and something that wasn't a problem when it first began this war, like reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which was, of course, open before it began attacking Iran. How did we get to this moment? I mean, I'm thinking particularly of Pakistan as a peace broker, which has also conducted its own skirmishes on the border with Afghanistan since these talks began. I mean, how has that happened? And what role is Pakistan playing?

[Julian Borger]

Well, Pakistan has played its cards very well. And I think it was mostly the head of the army, Field Marshal Asimouniyah, who seemed to have got on the right side of Trump before all this began. Trump used to call him his favorite field marshal. I think it's because he praised Trump during or after an earlier confrontation between Pakistan and India. And Trump likes that suggested he was

[Noshi Nikbal]

nominated for a peace prize.

[Julian Borger]

Yes, that always helps with Trump. And so they came forward and they were acceptable to both sides. And so they have pursued. They haven't given up. They pursued both sides and they've been quite dogged in their diplomacy. And eventually, eventually it paid off, but it has paid off because it does suit both sides now to get out of this mess.

[Noshi Nikbal]

Well, Julian, from a diplomatic and political perspective, there is a lot of focus on the sort of pantomime of Trump in this, on oil prices, on energy prices, on the performance of the stock market. But when it comes to the actual true cost of this war to the Iranians, to the Iranian people, can you tell me what that's looked like over the last three months?

[Julian Borger]

There has been a horrendous cost. We're Talking about maybe 3 to 6,000 people killed, many more injured. The estimates of the damage done, 200 to 300 billion. But also, don't forget the Lebanese. The Lebanese have suffered as many casualties in what people see as a sort of sideshow to the Iran war. But of course, it is part of the war, and the Lebanese have lost similar number of people and seen villages across the south flattened and much of their territory now occupied. The damage and the suffering has been spread over the region.

[Noshi Nikbal]

And it's the civilian infrastructure as well.

[Max Rushton]

Right.

[Noshi Nikbal]

And I'm thinking about, you know, the water reservoirs that have been taken out, the Minab school bombing, the bridges that have been bombed, and as you've said, in the south of Lebanon, entire villages being completely razed to the ground. The question of Lebanon, of course, is quite important here, isn't it? It's quite complicated because Israel say that they're not going to be withdrawing their military from the region. And I wonder if that's the case, then, how contingent is this deal on the situation there between Israel and Lebanon?

[Julian Borger]

Well, if you listen to the Iranians, it is very contingent. They've said it's an integral part of it. Also, Pakistan's Prime Minister Shabaz Sharif also said that this is also about Lebanon. So this is another vulnerability in the deal, because we've heard from the Israelis already, as you said, that they have no intention of going anywhere. They're going to stay there. You could imagine they'll be further clashes with Hezbollah. And so this is a big weakness, that there is a third player here, Israel, that has various motives. One is security, the other political. From the point of view of Benjamin Netanyahu, he's coming out to elections, has not really much to show for it in terms of security. So he is very much a wild card now when it comes to this ceasefire, this agreement holding.

[Noshi Nikbal]

Nonetheless, this process is now rolling, and we're due to see a memorandum signed on Friday which will then kick off, I believe, 60 days of intensive technical talks in which you imagine that Iran's nuclear deal, or lack thereof, the question of sanctions, will be discussed. Julian, how much faith do you have in those talks and what exactly what else is on the table there?

[Julian Borger]

They are going to be very difficult talks in a short timeline, because these issues about Iran's right to enrich uranium, what happens to its sizable stockpile of highly enriched uranium, these have been there for many years. Of course, they were addressed in the 2015 deal done by Barack Obama that Trump famously walked out of. And now they've become the center of the issue once again.

[Noshi Nikbal]

Well, he said it was a rubbish deal, didn't he? I mean, he criticized Obama's deal to the nth degree and now has a worse one.

[Julian Borger]

Well, this is a real problem in terms of coming to agreement, a deal this time, because it'll be evident if the deal that Trump comes to is worse than Barack Obama's. And this would be political, very difficult for Trump. And so those. But parameters on the negotiations, that will be hard. But it's worth remembering that before this war started, two days before this war started, the two sides were fairly close to a deal by all accounts. And it's hard to imagine that the deal they come to in Geneva, if they come to one, will be very different from that one that was on the table back in February.

[Noshi Nikbal]

And in the meantime, we've had this absolute devastation in the region, complete instability. Nonetheless, Julian, we know that the Trump administration will declare this as a victory Irrespective of actually the reality of that. And can you just, I guess, tell me the situation for the us? I mean, how much worse is it really for them?

[Julian Borger]

Well, of course, you have an economic cost that is immediate and will last over months, if not years, in terms of inflation, petrol prices, agriculture, inputs to agriculture. So there is an economic cost, but also in terms of US standing in the world. I mean, they went to a war and achieved none of their aims so far and was seen to have been held at bay by really the use of drones and of asymmetrical warfare. They've been shown not to be able to protect their allies in the region. Their bases in the region have been shown to be vulnerable. They were as hit very hard or something that they tried to keep secret. So the US emerges from this as a very much weakened player on the world stage.

[Noshi Nikbal]

And in the meantime, the Iranian regime can probably claim this as their victory, right?

[Julian Borger]

Well, by surviving, the regime can claim to have looked the US and Israel in the eye and face them down and survived. It probably makes them stronger in terms of internal opposition. The military, who were the ones carrying out the suppression of dissent before now, are now completely in charge. As far as we can tell, the secular part of the regime, the presidency seems to be very much weakened. So it's a different Iran. But by all accounts, what we can see so far is not a better Iran in any way.

[Noshi Nikbal]

Julian, thank you for your time.

[Julian Borger]

Thank you. Thank you for having me on.

[Noshi Nikbal]

That's it for today. Thanks again to our senior international correspondent, Julian Forger. And do check out our sister podcast, Politics Weekly, where they are discussing the social media ban for under 16s as announced by the Prime Minister today. Thanks for listening to this episode of the latest Today in Focus will be back with you as usual tomorrow morning and the latest will be back tomorrow night. This episode was produced by Annie Levesper. The senior producer is Ryan Rumgobin and the lead producer is Zoe Hitch. The presenter was me, Noshi Nikbal.

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