← Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Peter Thiel Chooses Argentina, Government Overreach, and Lessons from History’s Financial Bubbles
01:31:53
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- [00:00]
Grainger Announcer
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- [00:30]
Tom Bilyeu
When you manage procurement for multiple facilities, every order matters. But when it's for a hospital system, they matter even more. Grainger gets it and knows there's no time for managing multiple suppliers and no room for shipping delays. That's why Grainger offers millions of products in fast, dependable delivery so you can keep your facility stocked, safe and running smoothly. Call 1-800-GRAINGER click granger.com or just stop by Granger for the ones who get it done. Good morning, everybody. Welcome to the Tom Bilyeu Show Live. It's Friday and we have Elizabeth Bilyeu joining us once again today. Pour one out for Drew. He's still on vacation, so I am very excited to be rocking with you. It's a wild day if you've been paying attention to the economy. AI valuations are getting completely out of hand compared to the much higher revenue. But non AI stocks, We're going to be talking about that. Ooh, Prep your portfolio accordingly, boys and girls. We've got some stuff to discuss there. Newsom is threatening a 100% tax on Trump's anti weaponization fund. It's unconstitutional. That's going to be a good time. Bernie Sanders wants you to know the government owns everything and you own nothing. Who would have thought that the globalist elites that were telling us that we were going to own nothing and be happy they were actually lurking in, what, Connecticut the whole time. Mamdani has gone full Elon and I actually love it. This one is going to be interesting to cover. We'll see. New details have emerged on the potential ceasefire extension in Iran. Peter Thiel has reportedly moved to Argentina because he is worried about the US and given that it's Friday, this one is going to be fun. Caleb Hammer reveals that transgender women are getting breast implants on taxpayer dollars. It's wild. It's wild. Welcome to the wild, wild West. By the way, we have a sponsor today, everybody. It's a company called Plowd. It's an AI solution. They are dope, by the way. So this is just the way that it attaches to your phone or the phone case, but it will record everything that you're doing and then allow you to play back. Make sure that you're not missing things that you said you were going to do or something. Cool. Somebody said this is really cool technology. So I'm super excited that these guys are on board. So shout out to plowed.
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Eric
Where can people go to find them?
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Tom Bilyeu
There should be a link right inside of the. Look at that. There is pointing to it. You got that link in the description, so make sure you check it out. We can talk more about them later. But the AI valuations are really, really getting crazy. And this is the part of our life that my wife doesn't even have to think about because thankfully, and choose not to. Yeah, but really, truly, AI valuations have become just completely unhinged. So there's like a weird thing happening in the call it normie community of people looking at what's going on in the economy. They hear people like me screaming, you've got to own assets. They look at the narratives. Out in the world, AI is the hottest thing in the universe. And so they're just funneling into that. So one I will just remind everybody the real money is always made in the pre ipo, not in the IPO itself. So everybody be very careful out there. What I'm going to go through does not mean that AI is not an incredible technology. I think that it is. I think it is going to be wildly transformational. I think it'll be the single most transformational and important technology ever. Not just of our lifetimes, but quite literally ever. And by the way, every time I say that, I'm thinking of every as compared to fire. So this really is going to be something that will change the world in ways that we cannot possibly imagine right now. But that doesn't mean that there isn't a timing issue in the markets. So what we're seeing right now is that we're basically going to be riding the dot com roller coaster once again. I think we can all agree that the Internet actually changed the world, completely revolutionized it. Despite that, it put a whole bunch of people out of business, it bankrupted a ton of investors because you have a timing problem between what's known as capex. So you've got to spend all this money building out infrastructure and this is really where you get this mismatch. It becomes an infrastructure. So you got to put out all this capital in the beginning versus the timing of when the revenue actually starts pouring in. So let's just look at a couple of figures. OpenAI, an incredible company doing incredible things, is worth an eye watering $852 billion. But it only earns 25 billion a year in revenue. Now look, 25 billion is a lot of money, I get it. But Walmart is worth roughly the same in terms of, when you look at their total cap, it's roughly equivalent to OpenAI. But to get to its valuation, it has had to ring up a staggering $713 billion in annual sales. So you've got one guy that's able to do it on 25 billion and another company that had to do it with 713 billion. So immediately you know, okay, this is narrative investing, this is not fundamental investing. So already your alarm bell should be going off. Not that you want to run and hide in the hills, but that your alarm bell should be going off. So you start paying attention, start asking yourself, okay, is the narrative actually on track? So if Walmart has 28 times the revenue but is valued at almost exactly the same number, what does that mean? Investors are paying basically for a forecast. So they've got demand that only materializes after hundreds of billions of dollars in data center chips and everything get built out. That's that infrastructure change. So you've got OpenAI valued at about 34 times its revenue, which is historically insane by normal standards. But XAI is where this just gets to a whole nother, whole nother level of insanity. They raised money at a $230 billion valuation, but on only $500 million in sales, that is a 460x their revenue. That is madness. Now the reason that all of this matters, because again, like I get it, this technology is going to be revolutionary. Ultimately we will make good on these promises. I don't have any doubt about that, that ultimately AI is going to get us there. The only question is, will it be these companies and will it be fast enough that a whole bunch of people don't get bankrupt in the interim? And history tells us that, hey, by the way, every time that a technology has this kind of capex requirement on infrastructure, the timing is the thing that just absolutely destroys people. So Britain's railway mania in the 1840s, shares fell by about 85%. Bankruptcies hit like all time records. Middle class families who had gotten in on that narrative, they were super excited. They ended up getting wiped out, as did institutional investors. A third of the approved railway lines never ended up getting built. America, despite knowing all of that, repeated the same thing. And the panic of 1893, which was roughly a quarter of all US railroads just going bankrupt. So same idea. You're putting all this money into what feels like a gold rush. You have to build out the infrastructure that that is the CAPEX stands for capital expenditure gold. People that haven't heard that term before. And so you're just pouring all this money, all this money, all this money. And eventually the returns come. I mean, the railroads also transformed America, but it wasn't the initial investors that ended up winning. It's often that second generation of people that come in after everything breaks apart. And I guarantee that as we go through this wild roller coaster and AI ends up, almost certainly there are no guarantees. I cannot see the future, but almost certainly will run a playbook similar to the railroad, similar to the Internet. What you're going to see are people that come and say, I tried to warn you guys. So the Michael Burry's of the world who have been liquidating their funds, getting out of the stock market, saying things like, I don't even understand the market, I don't know what it's doing. Same thing with Warren Buffett who's like sitting on stockpiles of cash. His returns now look absolutely terrible compared to the S&P 500. But if you overlay it with his returns back in 2000, what, seven or eight as the financial crisis was about to just absolutely batter everybody. It was the same thing. He looked stupid until he looked like a genius. And so the odds that we run through something like this are real enough. Everybody should be paying attention. So if you want to speedrun the Internet. So from 2000 to 2002, the telecom firms erased around $2 trillion in market value. 23 went bankrupt. WorldCom was the largest US bankruptcy in history. At the time. Companies were laying like an insane amount of fiber. They laid enough to circle the earth thousands of times. And at the bottom of all of that, almost none of it was being switched on. Now obviously over time you start using more and more of that as more and more people come online, but it's that gap that ends up being the killer. So the railroads end up getting built. AI is going to end up getting all of its infrastructure, the fiber got laid for the Internet, all of that. And ultimately these things end up delivering on the hype. But like the Internet, it was basically 20 years later that finally some of the companies that did survive, but it took them that long to get back to their like hype level valuations. So. So I'm not saying you won't make your money in AI. You Very may will. I'm not saying that it won't be these companies, maybe it will. But I am saying that when you start getting valuations that are detached like that, you better be a big believer who is not trading on leverage, who can stay inside of that bubble for a very long time. These patterns repeat in history. These patterns repeat. And when people act like these patterns are super novel and they've never seen them before, this is where you get caught off guard. Now every time I bring something up like this, people bang the drum. Okay, Tom, fine, yeah, you're trying to scare us once again, but what are we supposed to do? The answer is always the same. We went through this on Wednesday. You cannot see the future. Nobody knows what is going to come. So the only thing that you can do is go. I hear alarm bells going off. This makes me a little bit nervous. So how do I make sure that I am broadly spread across? Because I have to be in assets. Have to be. You have to be in assets. Okay. I guarantee the government will steal from you. If you're not in assets, the government will steal from you. It is the only way to guarantee that you lose is to not be in assets because they will steal from you and they will funnel it back into asset holders. This is how the game is rigged against you. It's a very knowable pattern. So you have to be in assets, but at the same time there's all this mania and stuff that goes on in the assets that you have to protect yourself, to protect yourself against. So what ends up happening is people understand they have to hide from the government. So you've got to put your money somewhere. So you're going to put it into assets. You're technically hiding from inflation. So you put your money into assets. You're sort of holding your nose knowing you have to do it, but you can see the insanity that's building in terms of it being a bubble and all of that. What do you do? This is where I spend all of my time and the thing I normally keep my poor long suffering wife out of, but I've drug her into this life. And so when you are looking at that, you're saying, okay, there are economic forces. One economic force is you've got all this hype pouring into technology. The technology sector is being pumped by AI. Investors as a psychological profile are always looking for where they're going to get the best return. If you have not yet mapped the psychology of like a die hard investor, it will be maybe distressing, certainly enlightening, but you will understand that to map an investor, there are types, to be sure. But if you map an investor as a poker player, you're going to get very, very close. They think they're smarter than the next person. They think they can outplay them, and they are actively trying to take your money. Okay, that, that is the rough swag of an investor. They want that big win. They want to bully somebody. They want to get, like, the huge returns. They want to be the person that had the balls to stand there on the edge with a what, what's the terrible two, seven or whatever, waiting for the flop to see if they can make it all pay off. Like it or the river. It's all madness. It is all madness. When I watch how they behave like, it is startling to me because I do not have that personality at all. So that is one of those economic forces. You've got all these people who understand the markets, they understand the narrative, they know how to trade on the news. All of that flow flooding into AI thinking that they're smarter than the next person, that they're going to be able to get out at just the right time. They might even be trading on leverage, which is terrible. And all of that can go away in an instant because it's a narrative trade, not a fundamentals trade. And if that blows up and you just put everything into that one area, boom, you're toast. Your money is going to be stuck. Because if you sell, then you lock in the losses. So now you're going to try to ride it out. First of all, if you're on leverage, it's just all gone. You'll get liquidated instantly if you didn't trade on leverage. But now your money's locked up for 20 years. How are you going to be able to handle that? So when you think about spreading yourself across economic forces, that's one of the ways. So if that were to happen and the economy tanks there, where do you think that that money might go? Is it going to go back into value stocks? Is it going to go into commodities like gold or Bitcoin? Like, you start looking at that stuff and saying, okay, cool, I'm going to spread myself out across these economic forces, meaning if this one goes down, one is likely to go up. If this one goes down, this one is likely to go up. And so you want to have some exposure to all of it. Okay, I'll keep repeating it until the end of time, but that is like the basic swag. And then just again, don't be on leverage. Don't be on leverage. We're hitting pause for a moment, but there's plenty more ahead so don't go anywhere this summer. Don't squeeze in, spread out. Find homes big enough for your whole guest life list on vrbo. That's vacation rentals done right? Book your stay now.
- [15:30]
Grainger Announcer
If you work in university maintenance, Grainger considers you an MVP because your playbook ensures your arena is always ready for tip off. And Grainger is your trusted partner, offering the products you need all in one place, from H VAC and plumbing supplies to lighting and more, and all delivered with with plenty of time left on the clock. So your team always gets the win. Call 1-800-granger. Visit grainger.com or just stop by Granger for the ones who get it done.
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Tom Bilyeu
Thanks for sticking around. Let's get right back into the action.
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Eric
A lot of information there. There was a lot of comments. One of them actually I pulled though, because I thought it could be very interesting and this isn't my world. So you tell me if it's a silly question or if we've just done done spoken about this too many times. Yellow Knight said ask for the salary in DDR5 and silver. I don't know what DDR5 is, so it's so funny.
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Tom Bilyeu
You're in my worlds in terms of our intellectual lives are really diverging because that comment is hilarious. Oh, is it all potentially all too accurate?
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Eric
Oh, well, part of me was like, well, actually, if the world is changing, is cash in hand the right way to go? Should you be having silver and gold? I know you kind of invested.
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Tom Bilyeu
Cash is trash because you are getting. You're literally getting pillaged. I can't make even my own audience mad enough about what the government is doing to their money. That really makes me sad. I really want people to be angry about how inflation works, why it's happening.
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Eric
Right. So would it be better if companies started to pay their employees in different ways?
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Tom Bilyeu
No. Jesus. Oh. You need to give people maximum flexibility. So.
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Eric
So they should convert their cash into silver. Don't know what DDR5 is.
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Tom Bilyeu
So DDR5 is memory. So right now mem is skyrocketing, but I have a feeling that it's going to end up being the next AI thing where everybody ev the gambler types are all chasing that big win and they're all moving in so fast and so hard that by the time that it makes the news, the win is already lost. Like you've got to be the person that sees it before anybody else and you make that early move. If you look at the candles on memory, it is literally just a vertical green line. It's wild. So, yes, there is certainly something there. People are expecting memory to be the next bottleneck in the technology stack. And so people know that there's going to be companies that will be the big winners. It's just when you bet on a single stock makes me very nervous. Anyway, it's a funny comment. I love that you pull that. That's very interesting. So I do not advise it. So even though cash is trash, I think it is far better that people be in a position where they get the cash which is the most universal, and then they can buy whatever they think is right versus holding something that's already like, you're now saying, I want 100% of my payment to be an. An asset that I hate. So, yeah, and look, that's me being paranoid. That's me not trusting my ability to read the future. And I think some people don't like that. They want to be told what stock to buy. Like, I'll look at how some of my videos perform, and then I'll compare it to somebody who's like, go buy this etf. And I just think, hey, how the is that person getting away with giving people, like, literal financial advice? But nonetheless, they do, which they're not supposed to, but hey. And then also do they track that person's, like, actual scorecard? So there are some people out there that will literally say, this is my full portfolio. And then at least you can watch whether they're up or down.
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Eric
Are there a couple of people that you would listen to, though? Like, if Ray Dalio or Warren Buffett were like, hey, Tom, go and get this.
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Tom Bilyeu
Yes. But it would. If they told me to go after one thing, I'd be like, who? The body snatched you? Because that isn't how they operate the whole thing. So those. The people that I listen to are macro people who say, look, there are repetitions in history. They look like this. The moment that you're in is this. These are the things that are most likely to happen. You'll never get the timing right, so position yourself like this. And that sort of what Ray Dalio calls the All Weather Fund, is what I try to do. So I know in any one moment I'm never going to have, like, these insane returns. Now, I'm in a very fortunate position where I don't need to put us in that position where we need insane returns to do well. But I understand that unless I were in my 20s and was just like, I'm gonna just bet it all. Like a David Kim strategy, if you will. Longtime listeners will have heard that name before. And he just was like, it, I'm gonna pay really close attention to shitcoins for like three years. And I'm gonna up and down like micro transaction these things. He did very well, but that is. And I don't know in the final analysis if he's still doing well, but.
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Eric
So let's say people wanted to do the work and they're like, all right, Tom, we understand. You can't just listen to someone blindly because that could be dangerous. You want to put your own thoughts and ideas into your decision making. What are, let's say, three things that someone can go and do to train and learn how to navigate the market? Because when I met you, you were a writer, a poet, and you had no idea about the economy or money. And now seeing you sit here and be able to speak for 20 minutes so succinctly on this is how the world works. And this is how you see it was fascinating. You've learned so much. But to your point, a lot of people maybe are starting where you were. What some things they can go and do right now to learn to get to the point that you are it.
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Tom Bilyeu
The only thing they don't even need to do. Three, they need to do one thing, and that's to understand that the economy operates on physics and they need to. Physics is just cause and effect. So if I'm right, that we live in a simulation, that this is a stochastically deterministic universe, all you're trying to figure out is, okay, this input leads to this output. Now, these are very complex systems, and that becomes the problem. So it's very hard to know exactly I put this thing in here, and I'm going to get this out here. But you can understand the. The general sense of cause and effect. So that's what I was trying to do. So the thing that I hold myself accountable is, can I actually explain this thing? It started for me at Quest where I was trying to understand the biology. So why when I eat this thing, is it good or bad? Not it is good or bad, because then I can be bamboozled. But if I can understand that, what I'm trying to do is learn more and more about the physics of the body. Now if somebody tells me something, I can go, hold on a second. The statement you just made makes a prediction. And if that violates something that I know about the body, I either need to update My model of the entire how biology works, or I'm just going to throw it back at you and say that violates this principle about what I know to be true. Now talk about that principle. And if that person is blind to that principle, I'm like, yep, I can't even listen to you. But if that person's like, yes, here's the thing that you don't understand about that, then it gets very interesting. So Dom d' Agostino taught me about fat and was like, you can't eat the way you're eating, Tom. And I was like, why not? And he was like, all the inflammation that you have, as you remember, I used to have to ice my wrists every night and I haven't iced my wrists in years now. He was like, it. The problem is so much of your body is made up of fat. And so if you're not eating fat, you're basically doing rabbit starvation. And so, yes, you also need protein, but you can't live on only protein. And so it was like, oh, my cell membranes are made of fat. And so that could be a big part of why I'm having this problem. And so you run the experiment, you see that it works, and it's like, okay, cool. You update your mental model of why fat. Useful that there's a healthy. Anyway, so the economy works the same way. You're trying to figure out, like, what are the economic principles. Once you have the sequence of cause and effect at a minimum, you can figure out where either you don't understand a gap and then you can go research that. And so now you have a better understanding of. Oh, I get like, for instance, one that I had to research I didn't even know existed, something called the Euro dollar market. And so that was utterly fascinating about how what they call paper moves, like the entire global economy and how basically insane amounts of debt are being created every night and then wiped out every morning. It's this really weird, like, almost like a respiratory system for the entire economy where it goes up and down in terms of debt, up and down literally every night.
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Eric
Wow.
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Tom Bilyeu
And. But at any time somebody can say, yeah, I'm not lending anymore because I'm scared about something happening in the economy. And so all of a sudden you have like, global economic shortness of breath. And I didn't even know that was happening. So it's like stuff like that you detect. Ooh, I don't understand how this thing works. But because I'm simply trying to map cause and effect, I know what questions to ask Because I need to be able to explain the cause and effect of how a dollar is created, how it moves, how it's destroyed. Who has the power to do that? Why do some people have the power? What the are we doing? Like, so anyway, so let's say people
- [24:48]
Eric
do that, understand it, do the work. One person put a comment which I think is very on point. They put. I'm completely lost for words. I made. I make 95k a year and I barely have enough money to support my family's life. And. And I'm in 15k debt. I guess my budget is way out of freaking whack. Yeah, he didn't say that. So really, actually the question for me is if someone is in debt, if they're just barely trying to scrape by, you've got kids, you're trying to pay for food, you know, like, literally that hard. How do you invest if you don't have money to invest because you're so worried about feeding your kids?
- [25:22]
Tom Bilyeu
Yeah. The really bad news is it's so interesting how some of this stuff intersects with mindset. Okay, so the biggest transformational point in my life was once I realized that the world worked in a certain way, I worked in a certain way. And once I understood that, then it was like, oh, this is going to play out whether I want to acknowledge it or not. And so now I need to acknowledge that thing and act in accordance with the way that the world is, not the way that I wish the world were. So if I'm a person barely able to make ends meet, and I'm saying, yeah, I don't even want to think about this stuff, I don't have the money to invest. And so I just have to, like, keep going. And then I say, hold on. Like, you. You literally can't do that because your money is evaporating. Like, it's actually evaporating. You can use that word. And while it's not the literal phenomenon of molecules like rubbing off of your dollar and going into the air and returning as rain, it's the same effect. It is literally, like, from an analogy perspective, it's fantastic. Money is. It's purchasing power, but I'm just going to refer to it as money to keep it very simple. Money is leaving your bank account to the tune of somewhere between 2 and right now, depending on how you clock it, 4 to 6% out of your account without your permission. And then it really does rain back down, but it only rains back down on people that own assets. So your money is being transferred away from you it is being transferred away from you. So it's not. Tom's not making that up. Tom's not trying to scaremonger. Tom is simply acknowledging that we live in a very economically stressful moment where inflation is being used to allow the governments to run deficits so that politicians may promise things for free, but the mechanism, so that they can get elected, but the mechanism that they use to do that is to evaporate your money out of your bank account, out of your paycheck, into the clouds, and then it will only rain on the people that own assets. And so the short version of that we say is the rich get richer and the poor get poor. But. But it is mechanistic. And that's the part that just if people cannot come to understand this is a mechanism. So to that person, I say that mechanism is at play. Unfortunately, as a parent, you do not have the. The ability to sit back and go, I don't have enough money to put into that. You've got to find the thing that you're going to cut to put money in it. Because every dollar that you put into a wise, highly diversified portfolio is now protected from inflation. And if you can beat inflation, you're actually getting richer. And so step one, have you claimed your Trump account for your kids? Like, every kid born after a certain day gets a thousand dollars. Fucking incredible. And I hate it.
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Eric
Actually activated.
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Tom Bilyeu
It is actually activated. The. The bad news is, if you hate Trump, you're just going to assume it's terrible, but the reality is it's actually awesome.
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Eric
Is there ways for people to scam it? So they say, like, I'm going to give it to my kid.
- [28:35]
Tom Bilyeu
And my default assumption is everything can be scammed.
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Eric
Yes.
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Tom Bilyeu
So, but for right now, just it. The system is what the system is if you don't get yourself and your kids into assets, you're going to get pillaged. So that would be, number one. Number two is 95k is like real money. So now if they live in New York City, it's an atrocity. But what, is there any geographical arbitrage that we can run? Can you work remotely? Yada, yada. So I'd be looking at that very seriously. I'd be looking at what I can do to lower my expenses. Because it doesn't matter if you make $95,000. If you live like you're making $250,000, it's never going to be enough. But if you make 95 and you live like you're making 70, now, all of a sudden, it is enough. And so there's the famous story of the janitor. I'm sure people have heard this. It's a real story. I forget the guy's name. No, no, that's another janitor who went on to do extraordinary things. But this was a janitor who just socked away. It was like $10 or something out of every paycheck. So every two weeks he's just putting $10 into whatever the S P 500, but he doesn't touch it for 40 years. And so when he retires, he's a multi millionaire. So I get it may not come as fast as you want. And I really do so it. If you think that I have been wealthy my whole life, you will not understand my actual life. So I grew up lower middle class. I used to think I grew up poor. I did not. But I grew up lower middle class. And then as I got out of college, though, I was properly broke, like, not able to pay my bills all the time. Constantly juggling like, okay, I've got. They're gonna. They're about to turn off my electricity, so I'm gonna have to pay that next month. But like, that kind of broke. So I understand the stress of being in that position for sure. But again, you're in a mechanistic system and so you've got to find a way out. We're hitting pause for a moment, but there's plenty more ahead, so don't go anywhere. Thanks for sticking around. Let's get right back into the action.
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Eric
Yeah, I remember I used to. My whole thing was saving. That was what my dad taught me. And so I remember you at one point, I was like, we have to save. So I had a little, you know, one of those jars that you can't take the money out until you break it. And I used to put money in it, remembering you at one point were like, babe, you can't save your wealth your set yourself to wealth. And I was like, what do you mean? And you're like, it just won't work. Like having cash just sitting there won't actually help you get wealthy.
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Tom Bilyeu
Yeah, a true statement. All for the wrong reasons at the time. Interesting that that was really me understanding. You don't save your way to wealth. You can certainly invest your way to wealth. That statement comes from people who don't understand the economy. I was one of them. And so it was a very easy statement for me to repeat. You don't save cash. That's for sure. And then also the kind of wealth that I had in My mind, you're never going to be able to save your way to. If you're a psychotically shrewd investor, maybe over 20 or 30 years, you could get there, but you'd really have to be generational because we had so little money. But compounding is compounding, so you could certainly do something extraordinary. But what I was trying to get to was, listen, I've got an all in strategy, and that is, I'm not going to save for retirement. I'm either going to make us wealthy through entrepreneurship or not. And I was so delusional that I didn't even think I was going to fail. Like, that didn't seem like a realistic option. It really felt like I can just keep trying and keep trying and keep trying.
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Eric
What is it, the naivety of the young?
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Tom Bilyeu
Yeah, yeah. I mean, some of it doesn't always have to be young, though it usually is because you build so much scar tissue as you age. But I really. That delusion, which parents are giving to their kids less and less. That delusion was really helpful. When I said to my mom that I was going to be rich, she never told me. She didn't believe it. She didn't. But she never told me that. And so that was really helpful that it was just like, oh, yeah, you don't. This is part of why growing up in the 80s was so rad. It was just like, if you wanted to get rich, you could. There was just that belief. And so, oh, yes. There weren't people telling me like, oh, you're going to be a failure. Everybody quietly thought it. Your dad was the first person to tell me to my face, you're not going to make it.
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Eric
Well, only because he was like, what's your. How are you going to get there? And, you know, my feelings work hard.
- [32:50]
Tom Bilyeu
He's always very kind to me. But that, that was the, the first time that I heard somebody go, it doesn't work like that.
- [32:59]
Eric
Yeah.
- [33:00]
Tom Bilyeu
So. All right. Lest there are any questions on that.
- [33:05]
Eric
Not really. A lot of people have a lot of thoughts, but, yeah, I think it's time to move on.
- [33:09]
Tom Bilyeu
I want to talk about Bernie Sander. So, you guys, I don't think I'll have any hard time guessing how I feel about a recent tweet from Bernie Sanders. He continues to be a kleptocratic communist. He. He is of the ilk of people that say nice things. They make it sound like they are fighting for you. They are the inflationary force. They really are running an algorithm in their minds that says the government owns everything and we decide to let you keep some things. Now, if you look at what he's talking about on X, they, they really are trying to steal more money from people in the name of fairness. And Eric, if you can pull up the tweet just so that we have it. This is. Ah, look at that. Okay, so his exact tweet goes like this. The oligarchs in California are spending huge amounts to defeat a union backed billionaire wealth tax. Which, by the way, I, I really want to arg anybody in the chat that has like a really strong pro union position. My union stance right now is purely intuitive, so I'm not gonna have strong arguments, but I need to start battling this out. But I have a very strong intuition that unions are best thought of as micro governments and they have the same tendencies to want to make the union itself grow. And they will say that they're fighting for the people, but in reality they're fighting for the survival of the union. Again, these are early days, so please give me your pushback, help me sharpen my thinking. But that is where I'm at with that. So when I hear union backed, I immediately am like, oh, this is somebody who wants government on government on government. All right, anyway, back to the actual tweet. The oligarchs in California are spending huge amounts to defeat a union backed billionaire wealth tax. The Republican establishment is in a frenzy and few Democrat leaders support it. Yet a new poll has it winning 54 to 45. The people want the rich to start paying their fair share. Okay, the absurdity of saying that the wealthy aren't paying their fair share is so diabolical. I don't even know where to begin with that. I've talked about this many times before, so I'll speedrun it. The top 50% of Americans pay 97% of the tax. So the bottom 50% collectively only pay 3%. Like already. Just like stop and sit with that for a second. That's absolutely wild. Then as you go up, the number gets crazy. I forget what the exact total is for the billionaire class, but it's a lot. When you start getting into the top 10%, you're already accounting for something like 84% of all tax being paid is paid by the top 10% of people. So it's like, at what point do we consider it fair? It's just an absurd amount of money. What I think they really mean is there are still budget deficits, There are still things that I want to give away for free, and you still have a lot of money. So I want to keep taking it and taking it, taking it until I can have the most inefficient system in the universe and not have to make any like concessions whatsoever. I just want to keep taking your money to fund everything that we want to do for free. That is somebody who has shows no interest whatsoever in how wealth is created. They look around the world and they go, wow. So weird that some countries are just absolutely in the desperate clutches of poverty. Including, by the way, China in recent memory being in the absolute death clutches of poverty. So it's clearly not that they didn't have smart people. It's clearly not that they have some dumb culture. What they had was a dumb political system. They broke the economy. And as soon as they stopped breaking the economy, they whoop. They rocketed out of poverty at a rate that is unprecedented quite literally in human history. So how do they do it? By mastering the actual physics of the economy. So when you get somebody like a Bernie Sanders or an AOC or a Mamdani and they look around the world and they see desperate poverty, they don't go, what's broken in the economic system? They default to this absolute brain rot theory that the wealthy just aren't paying their fair share. That is not how the economy works. If you don't have small efficient government that allows for wealth creation through the private markets, you will never get there. That just. It violates the physics of the economy. And certainly happy to debate that or if anybody just has a question about what I mean by that. If there's something that I always gloss over on this that I'm now unintentionally taking for granted, please let me know, okay? As a country, we really do have to decide what we are ultimately about. So when a person owns something, as a country, do we believe that that's theirs or that that's the government's and they're letting us have it? And that's one of those. As a default. As a default. What do you believe now? I'm not asking about whether people should pay taxes. My stance is that we should pay taxes, but the government should be as small as humanly possible. So the government as like using physical force against your child. You should. If your kid is going completely unhinged in the store and throwing things around, you're going to have to restrain them. You cannot just be like, sweetie, you need to calm down. Fuck all that. You're going to go restrain them, but you shouldn't punch them and knock them out. That would be wild. You want to use the least amount of force possible. And that's the same way that the government should approach its services. They should do the fewest number of things humanly possible. They should have absolutely no impulse to grow. They should be trying to leave the money in the hands of the people and create a fair and safe playing field. That is, for my money, that is how the government should operate. Now, when you legally buy something, we have to decide as a collective whether that's ours or the government's. And as like a spoiler alert, if we say it's the government's property and individuals get to own nothing, I'll just ask you to find one example in all of human history when that didn't lead to crushing poverty and tyranny. Now, I already know you're not going to be able to do it because that is exactly where that leads to. When the government believes that it owns everything, it is letting you live by its will. It is letting you have things because it decides to be kind. When we let a government get away with that and we forget the government is there to serve the people and not the other way around, you end up breaking the economy because the government will do the things that it needs to do to grow the government and the government will just get bigger and bigger and bigger and bigger and you'll be running these deficits. And then to run the deficits, we go back to they have to steal your money through inflation. That that loop is just so well known, so well tread, so well repeated through history. There's just no escape. That's how it works. So now, despite all of that, there is like a background shift in the base assumptions of everyday people. Namely that everything really is a government's property and that we only get to keep what they allow us to. I for one, I do not agree with that. I don't stand for that. And if that kind of civilizationally suicidal belief ends up taking hold, that for me is a reminder of why we have the second Amendment. And yes, I mean that exactly as it sounds. But going back to Bernie, he's saying something that affects basically. So California has about 200 billionaires and a measure on the November ballot here wants to take 5% of everything they own in a single year. By the way, Bernie's cheering it on. He calls it again them paying their fair share, but this really is theft. I will happily run through again why this knowingly and structurally will break the. It'll break the economy. If you do it once, you'll Just cause like a massive dip that doesn't break the economy. The problem is it will go on and on and it will spread broader and broader. Because if you look for every dollar since I think 2019, for every dollar since 2019 the government has raised, they've end up spending $1.58. How are you ever going to balance the budget? You're not. This is not a revenue problem, this is a spending problem. Just very simply, if every increased dollar in taxes you bring in, you end up spending an increase of a dollar and 58, you have an ideological problem. This you'll never be able to balance the budget. You're always spending more than you bring in. So there'll never be an end to this. So what will end up happening, what already is happening by the way, is the billionaires are going to leave. So then they'll have to broaden the tax base because it will get worse. By the way, this tax will end up meaning that they make less money. So part of the question becomes are they doing this to get the wealthy to leave so that there are no more people in opposition to their policies. That's something that's been knowingly run before. So are they trying to do that? Are they trying to further entrench California as a blue state or are they just that economically illiterate? It's probably both. There are probably some people that know precisely what they're doing and some people that are just that economically illiterate. But nonetheless the billionaires are leave, that will damage their tax base. Because remember, despite the never ending rhetoric about the wealthy are not paying their fair share, the wealthy carry the entire tax base. So now it's like your tax base is going to dwindle. We saw that happen in New York, right? Remember Kathy Hochul telling the billionaire or the I forget if she said millionaires or billionaires, but the wealthy basically can leave. You guys don't share New Yorkers values. So get out. Literally get out. Then what two years later is saying our tax base has been eroded. We need to go to Florida and convince some of those guys to move back. It cause and effect. So that will happen in California. It will make things worse. They will have to take the tax to broader people and go lower with it because for every dollar that they raise they will spend $1.58 and they're making their tax base worse. This is just an absolute catastrophe. And also unrealized gains isn't real money. So that you're taxing people on things that they don't Actually even have, which is so wild. I'm not going to spend more time on that. I've talked about that so many times, and I really feel like people either already understand it and I don't need to explain it, or no matter how many times I say it, I just cannot get people to understand what's actually happening. So right now, the thing I think we all need to focus on is the government has leeches on it. The government has an insane amount of leeches, most of whom are politicians, by the way. And remember, both sides. Both sides run an unbalanced budget. So there's. There are no champions for small budget anymore, except for the guy that we just booted out of Congress, Thomas Massie. So nobody is banging pots and pans for spending less, balancing the budget. It. So, yeah, we're in that moment. But if we don't recognize how much fraud there is in the system, if we do not recognize the impulse for government to get bigger, to spend more, no matter how much they bring in, then we will just keep deranging as a culture. Okay, I am making an appeal to you from a cultural standpoint. We all have to say, when a person works and earns money, that's their money. When they buy something, that's their thing. You don't get to tax already taxed dollars. And that we should be holding people accountable for not spending more than they tax. It's just too wild. So we are spending more and getting less, and the reason, largely, is because of the fraud. It is wild. It's going to be measured in hundreds of billions of dollars yearly, and we have to break away from that. If we don't, we are literally cooked.
- [44:50]
Eric
I've got a few questions. We'll try and get through them. Why are you so obsessed with wealth taxes? Like, they will never happen.
- [44:55]
Tom Bilyeu
Their belief is that America could never.
- [44:58]
Eric
That's what they said. Why are you so obsessed? It will never happen.
- [45:01]
Tom Bilyeu
So.
- [45:02]
Eric
And then why should also your average person care?
- [45:04]
Tom Bilyeu
All right, I'm gonna. I'm gonna speedrun the real answer. And I may learn that I should never tell people the actual truth. The real answer is that I'm an automata. And I cannot stop myself from saying this because I have a reaction to alarm bells. So I get a really strong emotion that average people are going to get hit by this. I have a strong algorithm in my brain that says, there but for the grace of God go I. I think it's way too easy that my life could have ended up with me in a position where I don't understand the economy. I'm not wealthy. And this is all happening to me. Seeing the mechanistic forces at play. Having read about history, understanding how bad this can and has gone so many times, that I know that the loop of history is countries rise and then fall, and that unfortunately you don't just like go, oh, we're one of the good ones, and then you stay up forever. It doesn't work like that. So that's why I keep banging on, because of all the algorithms running in my brain. That's the real answer. So I believe by putting out good ideas, you can actually sway people. Even though we are automaton, we do respond and adapt. So I can't stop myself from putting out these ideas because I believe them to be good and right and preserving of human dignity. And we're all impacted by ideas. So I hope I sway people.
- [46:24]
Eric
Don't you think private markets don't work that well if it's the largest companies? If the largest companies can drive smaller upstarts bankrupt?
- [46:33]
Tom Bilyeu
Yeah. So you're pointing out the thing that has to be protected against in the free market, which is you want to stop monopolies from happening. Monopolies are terrible. They make it worse for everybody. Yep. Government should be there. Remember, I'm not a libertarian. I'm not a no government guy. I want the government to be there because humans tend towards tyranny, whether they're in a corporation or whether they're in the government. Humans will break bad. Being a CEO does not make you a moral person. I want to be very clear about that. Just because you're good at building companies does not mean that you're a good person. So I want a government that keeps checks and balances. But when that government has the impulse to get bigger, which I'm going to call late stage governance, which is where we're at now, its impulse is just to grow and grow and grow, and it will become more and more authoritarian, it will become less and less efficient. It will become a bigger and bigger parasite on the back of its people. And so that's where we're at. So I'm trying to swing the pendulum the other way, but I'm not blind to the fact that we have to protect ourselves against the evils of people that will make a monolithic company that controls everything. They will certainly try to do that.
- [47:39]
Eric
That. All right, so what about. Someone's actually asked about wealthy people moving into an area and really inflating that asset. This happened in Cyprus, so my family's from Cyprus. My. My cousins could do their nine to five jobs, manual labor, pay for a house. Great. And then Cyprus decided to sell, but obviously they couldn't call it sell visas to people that would come in and spend over a million dollars. And so what ended up happening was a lot of Russians and Chinese came in, they bought a up all the freaking property, and now my cousin literally can't afford to buy a house.
- [48:14]
Tom Bilyeu
Yeah. Yeah. So Cyprus is a backwater, and they have mismanaged their country for so many years that it's a travesty. And the question that you have to ask is, do I want wealthy people in my country? And the answer for me is yes, but with caveats. So I want to find people that generated their wealth. Some people will say it doesn't matter because the wealthy people are likely to pump money into the economy. But I'll draw a distinction between somebody who can create value out of thin air, which is an entrepreneur, and somebody who is merely consumption driven, which would be somebody who inherits their money. Now, they may be investing wisely and all of that. So they're. I'm not blind to all that, but Drew and I got into a big argument about this at one point, and it was over New York. And it was the idea that my final rebuttal to him was, are you saying that no area can ever be too expensive for somebody? Like, the reality is, areas are going to get popular and the people with more money are going to move into that area. And this is where I'm not going to go down this rabbit hole right now. But money is how much value you can turn your time into. The world said, you've done something very valuable with your time. Here's my money. And so that person is able to aggregate money with that. We then say, hey, homeowner, hey, home builder, whatever. You built this thing. What's going to be the metric by which you decide who gets to own it? And you go, it's mostly money. It's not always entirely money, but it's going to be mostly money, because money is. Has the broadest appeal. You can spend it far better than you can spend love. You can spend it far better than you can spend respect. Like, there's not like a respect ledger somewhere that we all go, oh, yeah, that person's so dope. Respect has its place, there's no doubt. But the reality is, money is just the most universal. So we go, cool, do that. And the way that we determine something's values by how much money uncoerced people are willing to spend on that thing. This is where, like, there's just an algorithm running in people's brain that says money is evil. And because they have that algorithm, they don't realize money is the thing. You get with your time. You're the one that generates that money. You did a thing. Did you do an evil thing? It's just money is diverse utility. That's it. So it's not good or bad. It can be deployed in good ways, evil ways. So back to Cyprus. Yes. Inviting wealthy, hopefully wealthy job creators into your country means that there are going to be people bidding for the same thing. If you don't create more houses, the price of those houses will go up. So the real simple answer is make more houses. Now, I don't know what Cyprus is doing in terms of their regulatory burden on making building houses hard, but in the US we, in most areas, not all, in most areas, we make it so hard, it's full blown retarded. And nobody is up in arms about that. Like, if you want to be mad, be mad about not in my backyard. So it's known as NIMBYism. And that's people going, yeah, I don't care that houses are too expensive. I own a house. I want my property value to go up. You. And so you're not going to build more houses around here. And that's. That is the mechanism of how that game breaks. But if instead you went, yeah, entrepreneurs, build as many houses as you want, go for it, and if you go broke, you go broke, that's on you. And then the system will balance out. They'll overproduce at one point, it'll crash down, and then the something will happen. Like with Austin becoming insanely popular during COVID and prices are going to skyrocket, and then entrepreneurs flood in because they see the opportunity to build more houses and the property values come crashing back down. That's how it's meant to work.
- [52:06]
Eric
All right, we still got a lot of topics that you teased at the beginning that we've got to get through.
- [52:10]
Tom Bilyeu
Indeed.
- [52:11]
Eric
So let's go to move on.
- [52:12]
Tom Bilyeu
Let's talk about new stuff. Newsom.
- [52:14]
Eric
All right, let's talk about him.
- [52:16]
Tom Bilyeu
So Newsom wants to do something that is completely unconstitutional. He has a absolutely unhinged take on the anti weaponization fund that Trump has put together. Okay, so Trump puts together an anti weapon weaponization fund that is designed to protect anybody that feels that they've been wrongly prosecuted by the government. Keep in mind, I get it. We live in A hyper partisan era where everybody thinks that that is a specific thing for the people that Trump is trying to protect. When I first heard about this, I said the very thing we have to watch out for is if Trump is just trying to deploy this towards people that he thinks are going to, like, contribute to his campaign. Corruption, top to bottom, absolutely sinister, grotesque in ways that would be hard to quantify. If, on the other hand, this is a fund that is going to be set up, that will not simply be deployed during his tenure, that will be there or for, you know, I mean, until it runs out or hopefully forever. My only beef with this is that we are already spending way more money than we make. But remember, my default assumption is the government is a corrupt and parasitic entity and it is draining the lifeblood right now out of the populace. That is both. The. Both parties. So with that as my default lens, I'm like, yes, of course they have wrongly prosecuted people that they should not be going after. And unfortunately, for all of Trump's sins, they were also going after him in the run up to the 2024 election, trying to put the man in jail on things that were unprecedented legally. So it's like, if you don't have the goods, if you have him dead to rights on something, go for it. But if you're like the one where they went after him, where they said he elevated the value of Mar a Lago and therefore this was a fraudulent loan, and the valuation that they were having a problem with was so ludicrously low, I don't even know what the fuck they're thinking. And then on top of that, the bank that gave him the loan was like, we made money on this loan. What are you talking about? So there were plenty of things they went after him for that were just patently absurd. Finding ways to change either the way that the statute of limitations were read, to be able to go after him, it's just fucking stupid. Good. Why do that? So that's from like, yes, the government, including the Trump administration, weaponizes itself against people. So the fact that we now have a fund for people to be able to claim against to say that the government did evil fuck. Yeah, like, sign me up for it. I'm here for it. With the caveat that if this dumbass deploys it as a political tool for people to fucking back channel donate to him, that's obviously corrupt and ten pounds of ass. And so we'll get to. When bad person does good thing, you've got to be able to call a spade a Spade, we're going to talk about Mom. Donnie, I will continue to be intellectually honest about. He's doing a good thing. Now, if he fucks it up in the execution, then we'll say, you fucked it up in the execution. But if at the headline level it's actually good, we've got to be able to say it's actually good. So protecting the citizens from the government is actually good. And if we cannot get on board with that, no matter who puts that forward, it's crazy town. It's crazy town, guys. Come on. So we'll see how it plays out. Could end up just being. He creates an avenue and then he exploits it and it's corruption as far as the day is long, but nonetheless, at the headline level, great.
- [55:44]
Eric
All right. A lot of comments.
- [55:45]
Tom Bilyeu
Yeah.
- [55:45]
Eric
So, Tom, really, Trump did this because he knew the Jam six criminals would be applying for it, and he has no authority for such a fund unless he is the one funding it.
- [55:58]
Tom Bilyeu
That's not how the government works. So the president or legislators are going to say, hey, we think this thing needs to be done, and so we're going to put it together. And then people are going to. We don't know who's going to make use of this. That's why I say you do everything at the level of policy. Now, if there's something in the policy that skews this towards people that he likes, then to me, that would be a problem. If there's no checks and balances so anybody can grab it simply because they ask, that's going to be a problem. It's just another way for fraudsters to go in and defraud the government. But if there are appropriate checks and balances, great. Now, if your mental math is that everybody caught up in January 6th was a bad person, they needed to go to jail for that long. There was no political weaponization. Then you and I don't see the world the same. I think that there were people that did things in January 6th they should have gone to prison for and stayed in prison for. Trump pardoning them was stupid and reckless with his reputation, but that played out the way that it played out. But that there were people that were caught up in that, where the penalty did not match the crime. So that's my read. So you can understand why I would look at that and go, cool. If that's part of the pool of people that are able to apply to that go through some sort of process to prove that this actually was weaponization, get their money, great. But, yes, I My default assumption is that there will be people from January 6th. That, that. Take that. If it's. If that just goes to J6ers, that would be ludicrous and you'll hear me bang the table and freak out about the blatant corruption. So. But I would say let this play out.
- [57:32]
Eric
What do you think will actually happen, though?
- [57:34]
Tom Bilyeu
I haven't looked close enough at what the actual method is, where people can get their money. So I don't know, you'd have to look at what. What is the process by which you go file a claim and get the money. If it's like, in the, you know, DOJ's sole discretion, which right now is currently controlled by Trump, then I'm going to be like, this is going to be fucked. But if it's like there's actually a bipartisan committee or there's something that Congress is going to pass, like rules and regulations or something like that, then I'd be like, okay, well, cool. If that, like, actually gives us the safeguards that we need, wonderful. So, yeah, I mean, look, at this point, I trust Trump, not. Not even as far as I can throw him. So I get why people are paranoid, but people jumping to the finish line, that's where I'm like, okay, when you have the mechanism, you can skip to the finish line, because we've seen these things play out. If you don't have the mechanism, you can't. I'm not aware of the mechanism. If other people already know the mechanism by which this is going to, then, yeah, cool. Like, they may already know. Look, it's going to work like this and it'll be a joke, I feel. Yeah, got it.
- [58:45]
Eric
Cool. All right.
- [58:49]
Tom Bilyeu
All right. Yeah. So Newsom's tax, what he's trying to do is he's saying, okay, I so disagree what Trump is doing here that I'm going to anybody in California, if they make a claim on that, I'm going to tax them 100%. And obviously that is unconstitutional, as the federal government supersedes all of the states. So if the federal government does something, the states can't go in and take it away from you. They can give you more rights, they can't give you less. And so you would have. I think this would be challenged instantaneously on the grounds of the Constitution. But I also just really, really hate this idea of a state legislator saying that they're going to get involved, like, sight unseen. He doesn't know if that person is going to be a Democrat. He doesn't know if that person is going to have a legitimate complaint. He's just saying, matt Trump did it. And so I'm going to go tax at 100%. That is the thing that I find infuriating about this. To do that, your operating assumption is either, oh, I do everything on a partisan basis. I don't care if I'm right or wrong. That's get the fuck out of office if you think like that. Or you go, I don't care who. Whether they're just or unjust, I'm taking their money because I'm a kleptocratic bureaucrat and I'm going to take it all. Or you go, oh, the government can do no wrong. Therefore, if the government came after you, that was just. All three of those operating assumptions make me a level of angry that is hard to convey because it is so destructive to the fabric of this country. My operating assumption is that bureaucrats serve the people and they should be looking for ways to make their constituency have a better opportunities in life, more thriving middle class. Like all of the things that we talk about endlessly, that should be the thing that is pushing all of this agenda forward, but it's not. It instead is a politician going, I hate that guy. I do everything on a partisan basis. I do not use logic or cause and effect. I don't care who this hurts. I have a blanket statement that I'm going to make ahead of time. It's absolutely asinine and tells me everything that I need to know about Newsom. It's just wild. And what's wild is people get sucked into the partisan nature of this. Like, there's something about us where I think we actively. There's not something people like to be in their fields. It is so much easier to be emotional than it is to be logical. And so people are just going to ride the waves of the populist feelings and they're just going to go back and forth trying to piss on each other. It's ridiculous. And the number of people that are going to get caught in the crossfire
- [61:30]
Eric
is insane, because I know how much you hate it when I make decisions or thoughts based on my feelings. And you're always thinking about first principles. I brought this comment up because I thought it may not trigger you, but an interesting rebuttal. You read it wrong, Tom. You were not there and you were not at the trial, so you feel like some were wrongfully treated and you deny the system of justice and support Trump's message of do it again.
- [61:58]
Tom Bilyeu
I think that's Getting close to being a fair criticism. I won't say it's all the way fair because I have not done a deep dive on this. So it is very possible that if I spent a lot of time with it, I'd walk away going, man, fuck them all. They should all be in jail. That is possible. And I, at all times, hold myself accountable to information. Must be able to change your mind. So given that I. Many times in my life, as I go deeper into something, I realize, oop, I had fundamental assumptions. So I don't have any problem with that. It doesn't ding my ego in the slightest. But I've seen enough of it to say that I would be surprised if I didn't come out the other side going, yeah, there were some people that did absolutely abhorrent things that should still be in prison, but there are some people that were walking through it that were peacefully moving through the space, did not do anything physical, didn't break anything, none of that. So, yeah, anyway, that. That's my current read on it. So very open to being surprised, but I would be surprised. Cool word. All right, so with that hovering in the air, you've also got Mamdani doing something as a politician that is surprising to me. So he's putting forward something I believe he calls Coge. If we can pull this up. This is five. Row five. So, yeah, it's called Coge. It's actually a really interesting idea. So he's basically. He's doing Doge. For reasons that I think will be obvious to everybody. There's no way that Mom Donnie is going to be able to name it Doge. So we had to give it a new name, which, hey, fine. So I don't care if we have to call it KOJ to finally get people to go in and be efficient as a government, I am totally here for it. I will let go of all the pettiness. I don't care. But, Mom Donnie actually saying, hey, we've got to go in and we've got to find a way for the government to be more efficient. I fucking celebrate that to high heaven. Mom Donnie, I stand by you on this one, bro. I love it. Thank you, man. This is absolutely fantastic. Now, am I hyper aware that, of course, in the execution of this, this could be something that he weaponizes and does poorly, Just like with the Trump slush fund, of course. But I'm not going to jump to conclusions with that. I want to see how he does it. Because at the headline level, this really is the right thing. And if we can't make statements based on principles, if everything becomes well, I don't like that guy. So everything he does has to be bad. Like you're not able to think through the problem. Well, what is your goal? Get out of the fields. What's your goal? My goal? I want to see a thriving middle class in America. To get there, we legitimately have to defuse the bomb that is our current government. Our current government right now is a parasite that is quite literally best thought of as a whole host of leeches that is bleeding everyone of blood while screaming we need more blood. And it's like, well, if the patient is losing blood, mightn't we ask why? And the answer is because we have all these leeches on us. We're spending $1.58 for every dollar that we raise in taxes. It's absurd. We can't do it. Now look, I've talked endlessly about Mamdani being the king of spend more than you make. So it is entirely possible that he's unable to do this. It's also possible that he looks at things that I think are like, that's going to be where you take from. And you're giving more to just give free shit. But that's not what he's talking about out. He's putting something out into the world right now that I think is fantastic. Which is the people ought to be able to count on their government to be frugal with the money that they take from them in taxes. Yes. Yes, that is absolutely correct. So anyway, I thought this was wonderful and I'm very eager to see how it plays out.
- [65:51]
Eric
But you trust him?
- [65:52]
Tom Bilyeu
I don't trust him at all, but the the same way. So when I say, hey, Trump is doing this good thing, you could ask me the same question. But do you trust him? No. No, I do not trust him. But this is the right thing. And so if it's the right thing in name only and it is done poorly, then when I see that it's being done poorly, I will say right thing in name, wrong thing in execution. If can't do that like you, you are just a ball of emotion running around the world, making trouble. At some point, use your your head, think through a problem, say which part makes sense and which part doesn't make sense. If all you can do is get in your feels and start screaming like a banshee, you're not helping anybody. This is exactly how we end up spiraling into madness. Everybody's on a team, everybody's yelling From I feel this. I feel that they're not willing to go, oh, yeah, maybe you're right. Maybe I am stuck in my fields right now. I'm gonna go do the research. Yeah, cool. If anybody makes. I have said publicly, the thing that I am most cautious on in myself is Mamdani. He's the guy that, like, honestly, I'm more likely to see something good in him because I so don't trust myself to read the situation logically, that I'm always like, oh, my God, he says something mildly good. Okay, what can I. How do I get out of my emotion and go, okay, cool. Yes, this could be a good thing. So ironically, when Mamdani says something I like, I actually feel something more positive than if Trump says something that I like.
- [67:22]
Eric
Interesting, because you so see him in a negative light.
- [67:26]
Tom Bilyeu
Because Trump's form of evil is far less destructive than Mamdani's form of evil. They're both forms of evil. And I went through this on Wednesday, so I'm not going to do the diatribe again. But it's like, these two paths are not equal. They lead to very different levels of devastation. They are both horrible, and both should be stopped as fast as humanly possible. But in no uncertain terms, one is far worse than the other, which makes
- [67:54]
Eric
me trust him even less.
- [67:56]
Tom Bilyeu
Yeah, I get it. But, like, what I'm saying is I worry about me and who am I likely to be the most, like, aggressive towards the most irrational? I'm going to be like that with Mom Donnie. So anyway, I try to meter myself by saying, okay, let's look at this. How could this go well? Trust me, nobody has to remind me to run an algorithm in the back of my mind that Mom Donnie might this up or that this could just be spin on something that is evil to the core. It's all possible. But if he's saying the right thing, I'm going to acknowledge that. And then I'm going to wait to see if he actually it up because he says enough of the wrong evil things that if I want to get my panties in a bunch over a thing that he said, oh, trust me, there are plenty of things to get my panties in a twist over. So when he's saying the right thing, I'm going to acknowledge it.
- [68:43]
Eric
Yeah.
- [68:44]
Tom Bilyeu
And that way, my hope is that people understand. Dude, I'm going to call balls and strikes as they come. I'm not going to get ahead of myself.
- [68:52]
Eric
It's somewhat though, looking at a devil with a halo. The halo isn't really real.
- [68:59]
Tom Bilyeu
Yeah. I think this is your. You have an operating assumption.
- [69:02]
Eric
I do.
- [69:03]
Tom Bilyeu
And your operating assumption is that if that person falls into bad camp. Cool. I don't have to think about them anymore. They are categorized. My job is done.
- [69:13]
Eric
That, yeah, they're evil all the way down. So now I've painted them with a brush that when they say something, it allows me to think through. Okay, that's bs. So don't pay attention. Not pay attention, but don't believe.
- [69:23]
Tom Bilyeu
Okay, I'm gonna try to speed run the game that I'm playing. So I am running a meta operation of I. If I'm going to have influence over people, I have to earn credibility with them. Them. The coolest thing about a live show is they get to see me over a very extended period of time. One of the comments on the Simon Dixon episode was somebody who. They called themselves, like a faithful troller. I think that was the exact phrase that they used. And so basically there's somebody there that's. They come religiously to watch my content, but only to point out the things that I'm getting wrong.
- [69:55]
Eric
Oh, yes.
- [69:56]
Tom Bilyeu
And he said, listen, I'm one of your faithful trollers. However, trolls, however, you do actually change your mind. And that's something that I wish you would say more often. So people understood that about you. And I thought, that's interesting. So that's a core part of my thesis. People are going to be able to watch in any one episode or certainly any one clip. You may think I am an unhinged lunatic. However, if you watch me over time, you're going to realize I really am so suspicious of my own beliefs that they will not lead to where I'm trying to get to, that I am so focused on the outcome I'm trying to achieve. And I am constantly like, is what I'm doing actually moving me towards that? Because that is what I want. Do I have an invisible goal? If it is, can I just make it my visible goal? Or is it actually icky and I need to fucking get rid of this thing? And so I am constantly looking at the world that way. So I know I need to show people, even mom, Donnie, who I think is evil, if he's doing a good thing, I'm going to be like, bro's evil, but this thing that he's doing actively is good. Maybe he's doing it on accident, maybe he doesn't mean it to be a good thing, but it is a good thing. And so the second I become the guy that's like, he's evil, therefore everything he does is evil. It makes you a fucking moron. This is why you can't get bipartisan agreement on anything. Because if Trump, the, the Trump kids account thing is an unmitigated good, you must do it. I don't care if Satan rolled up and was like, yo, we got to get kids into these assets. I would admittedly be like, why does he want to do that? Oh, God, I've got to like, keep. Okay, I'm going to put a whole team dedicated to watch for the loopholes of how this is going to be used in a bad way. However, what I know about the world right now is that's a good thing. So the who of it makes me go, I'm suspicious. But the reality of what the thing is, I trust myself enough to understand the cause and effect where I'm like, yeah, no, this one is good. Now I'm gonna guess, like, I'm gonna project, why would the devil want this? Okay, the devil wants this because, oh, he's gonna turn them into dumb money as they grow up. Got it, Fine. But like, the. To say that I'm at least gonna give them a fighting chance because, yeah, they're probably gonna make a lot of really bad decisions. And for really good traders, that will have been the government funding these guys in a way that lets them siphon the money off of them just by beating them at the game of gambling. That is going to happen. So that will be these traders basically taking tax traders. Just to be very clear with my enunciation there, these traders being able to out trade these, you know, kids that just got it because they're a US citizen. And so now these traders later in their life, as it's compounding and actually becoming some real money, they're going to be able to out trade them and get their money. But this falls into the dumb voter problem where I'm not prepared to live in a nanny state. If people are dumb, that's going to be its own consequence. And so I am prepared to let people own their own life. And so if they vote for something that I hate, that is what it is. If they make a bad decision in the stock market, that is what it is. But stealing their money via inflation and not even giving them a shot to learn how to do it, Fuck you. Plus, you never know who the dumb ones actually are. So just like, give it a chance so that those kids that end up being really shrewd, they have a leg up. Even though they may have grown up in a poor area it's fucking brilliant. But, yes, the very gifted traders will take from the morons, and that is what it is. So anyway, intellectual humility over time, a willingness to change my mind over time, a willingness to go a good idea from a bad person is still a good idea over time. They'll see me do it over and over and over and over. And so when I say something that's counterintuitive, that other people are like, this guy's a moron, they'll be like, maybe he's wrong, but I don't know that this guy's a moron. And he'll adjust his thinking. And if that ends up being the contribution, right, Because I've got to imagine myself 80 years old. This is going to be a phase in my life, I promise you. The odds of me doing YouTube forever are effectively zero. So this will be a phase in my life. I will look back at this and go, ah, did I contribute something meaningful to the world? And if I can, the thing that I think I'm like a goaded fucking superhero on is controlling my own mind. So on that I stay out of my emotions, I know where I'm trying to go. I actually act in accordance with that. I'm extraordinarily resilient, yada, yada, yada. So I. I will be very proud of myself, even if people hate me, if I model that and people use it fair. So, anyway, that's the game. That's the game.
- [74:47]
Eric
All right, there's a couple more juicy topics we've got to make sure that we get in today. Do not leave, guys, because these topics are hot, hot and spicy.
- [74:53]
Tom Bilyeu
We. We gotta, like, get you on play. You're so much better at, like, the connective tissue of alive than I am. It is amazing.
- [74:59]
Eric
I'm trying not interrupt you, but also, guys, if you're watching, please, thumbs up this video. You have no idea how much that makes a difference to growing this channel, growing this episode. So please, if Epis. If this episode or Tom Bilu actually brings you value, smash the thumbs up. All right.
- [75:14]
Tom Bilyeu
Well, thank you. That is amazing. Okay, so the next thing I want to talk about is Peter Thiel. So Peter Thiel has reportedly moved to Argentina because he is worried about the. We're going to see in the fullness of time how this ends up playing out. I will be shocked if he's over committing to Argentina because there are no guarantees that Melaye stays in power. But what Milei has done in Argentina really is extraordinary. And I hate seeing people bill it as this is like a right leaning thing or a left leaning thing. This is really about common sense, economics. And yes, you're going to need a big personality. When you've had a country going in the wrong direction for over 100 years, it's going to take a very big personality to turn you back going the opposite direction. But what Malay has done is already extraordinary and he's only been in office for a couple of years. And so I'll be very interested to see what happens over time. Now anybody paying attention would be smart if you've got Peter Thiel's resources to build some kind of a relationship with that guy because what he's doing is good for the world. It isn't just good for Argentina though, it is great for Argentina. And as a reminder, all of us should be thinking about what country is good to its people, where they're good to each other, and what country is respectful of personal property and capital. Those are going to be the places where people thrive, where people have the most freedom, where people will rate their like happiness index high. Like these are, are the places that all of us want to be. This is why for so long America was the place everyone wanted to go to. But you know what's crazy? Do you know where everybody wanted to go to before America in the 1920s? Any guesses? Argentina. When we were competing for immigrants, America used to lose. And we were losing to Argentina because Argentina was absolutely killing it. They were an agricultural behemoth. The things they were doing were extraordinary. The wealth was off the charts. I think they had like the fourth biggest economy in the world. It was massive. They were certainly in the top 10, I think in the top five. Just absolutely massive. And everybody was going there. There was so much opportunity. And then just like now is happening in America, people get confused and they think that the prosperity is a law of nature, that it will always happen that the people that are winning are doing something evil. And therefore we need to to take the money from them and redistribute to the people that aren't doing so well. And it actually broke the economy, it destroyed their country and it made them an economic backwater for like 120 years. So it is a fucking disaster story. And the more you research that one, the more you're going to be mortified at how bad policy will absolutely crater an entire nation. And it doesn't do it for a generation or two, it does it for more than a hundred years. And that happens a lot. China had its own 100 years of humiliation like, like this kind of thing happens all the time. The country loses faith in who it is, loses faith in itself. It doesn't protect itself, it doesn't build a strong military because I know people are going to come after me for why. China had a hundred years of humiliation. But nonetheless, you end up getting yourself into an economic position that is extraordinarily difficult to get out of. So now is Peter Thiel actually going to pick up his entire life, move to Argentina? Would Peter Thiel say yes, I am actively doing this because I am worried about the US I'm not sure that he would put that fine of a point on it, but he has been very clear that the US is moving in a very strange direction, that California has completely deranged, which I agree with, aggressively. So my understanding of the Peter Thiel situation is that he's right now diversifying his ability to go to several different places. So I believe he has somewhere in. What is that island off the coast of Australia, I can't believe I'm forgetting the name of it, New Zealand. So I believe he has a compound in New Zealand. He's now building one in Argentina. Obviously I don't think he's without property in the US So I think he has property here as well. So now you've got somebody that's set up in multiple different places so that he has optionality. Optionality is always the name of the game. You always want to be in a position where you can make different choices depending on what circumstances pop up. So this is somebody who, from where I'm sitting, is more likely diversifying than he is over indexing on Argentina itself. But I certainly understand why he's excited about melee. I understand why he's excited about Argentina. I don't think Argentina's out of the woods yet though. So it'll be, I would say be a little bit careful, dear boys and girls, of over indexing anywhere. But I am sad to report that anybody that's paranoid about America, I get it, I understand why people are paranoid about America for sure. I think we should all be paranoid. I think only the paranoid survive. I think we need a map of how we think we're going to get to the other side of this. So, yeah, let's see if we can actually pull it off. Fingers crossed.
- [80:19]
Eric
So out of curiosity, how come you've never mentioned to me Argentina? So every time that we're talking about if California fails and, and falls and you know, we've spoken about many different places, we've spoken about Singapore Austin, Texas, Miami, Florida. But you've never mentioned Argentina.
- [80:34]
Tom Bilyeu
I really don't want to leave America. I. If you cut me, I bleed red, white and blue, as they say. America has given so much to me, and I love America so much. And I really do feel a sense of obligation to America. So it would have to get dire for me to leave the country. Never say never. And there are, There are certain status it. I'll tell you, if at a nationwide level, we vote for a wealth tax, I'm the out. Like, that's just so crazy. That's like America's lost at that point. It's pure failed state writings on the wall. You're not gonna be able to back out of that. I mean, it'll take 50 to 100 years. So that, that's like, yeah, I'm. I don't think that I'm good enough to overcome that. So at that point, you're just accepting your suffering. So I wouldn't do that. But I do feel a tremendous obligation now when I start thinking internationally, it's because I haven't. Because I'm so committed to America, I haven't done any real research about where is the best place to go. And then I'm not as close to the problem as Teal is. So for me, Argentina looks way more unstable than maybe it really is. Or maybe he's feels with his level of resources and access that he doesn't have to worry in the same way that I would have to worry. So I don't. Right now, for me, Argentina is hope. It's not reality. And so I hope that they get on the other side of this, but I'm always holding my breath. They needed the currency swap not too long ago to stabilize the peso. So it's like they're still in iffy territory. Even Margaret Thatcher didn't last forever. And so it's like, I don't know how long he'll be in power. And he's pretty radical. And as things get better, Argentina has proven that they are likely to go see, everything is fine. Why do we need this? And they will completely lose sight of. We're only doing fine because of this.
- [82:30]
Eric
Yeah.
- [82:30]
Tom Bilyeu
So that's where I'm like, ah, Do I really trust that they're gonna get their way out of this? Not really. He's too much of a strong man. He's too much of a populace. Which means as he rises, there's a countervailing force that will be rising just as hard. That's why I say I. I'M appealing to people at a cultural level. If we're not able to get to the point as Americans where we go, yeah, we are going to stand up for property rights, yeah, we are going to stand up for liberty and freedom. Yeah, we are going to be willing to fight for the freedom of speech. If we don't do that now, it's like, like anybody who recognizes those things as the engine of prosperity, you're just left going, it will break necessarily because the people don't believe in it.
- [83:13]
Eric
What's the difference though between that and in America? Right, Because Trump is in power and then you went from Biden to Trump and you're kind of flip flopping. Isn't that somewhat the same?
- [83:23]
Tom Bilyeu
Yes, that's why I'm terrified. So you've got Argentina showing that when it goes wrong, like if America. So I actually think the following playbook is being run by the Democrats. Not trying to be controversial. You just look at what's happening again, put that Simon Dixon style lens on and all of a sudden everything makes sense. If you take this lens off, you're gonna like be completely unintelligible as you try to explain what you see. Wide open borders so that you can get immigrants here. You're trying to bring in immigrants that recognize that you have a better social program than other places. And once you get them in, then they're going to vote for whoever says more free shit that they recognize. The Democrats are trying to be the party of socialism, communism style free shit where it's like, don't worry, we're going to take from these evil rich bastards. We're going to give it all to you. Free, free, free. This is about dignity, how it should be a human right. If you want to do drugs on the street, you should be able to do that like yada yada. And so people go, oh cool, that's where I want to go. And so you now have a system where you're inviting people who are obviously going to vote for those kinds of policies. Because of the way our system is set up. You actually get more congressional seats simply by having bodies. They don't have to be legal, they just have to be here. It's actually our system is structured, which is crazy and it ought not be that way, but it is that way. And so they'll import that they'll get more power, they'll get more seats. And if they turn the country into a permanent blue state, now you're in the same territory as Argentina. The level of suffering that you will have to Reach before people would then swing again to the right is really, really deep suffering. And that holds no interest to me. So I'm super paranoid about that. As America vacillates back and forth right now, it's like an earthquake. You can survive a couple swings, but. But if you swing for too long, it really does just break eventually.
- [85:23]
Eric
All right, we've got enough time to move on to the next topic. That's a little spicy, which is actually. Tom warned me about this one. The second he warned me about something, I was like, oh, what are you about to say?
- [85:36]
Tom Bilyeu
So, yeah, Eric, we gotta play this Caleb Hammer video. So Caleb Hammer, who is the fourth biggest podcast globally, which is. Is incredible because it's all about basically looking at the dumb that the government is funding, how horrifically people live their economic lives. He just goes through and he audits what people are spending their money on, what kind of money they're getting from the government. This was one. I was like, I can't believe this is real. It's got a timestamp, Eric. If it's like, 258, if I remember correctly from the sheet. If the sheet doesn't say somehow. Because I'm actually not. Oh, no, I put it low. Yeah, it's 258. So this is 54. Row 54. YouTube video. Yup. All right, everybody. So Caleb Hammer is doing an audit with a transgender woman. And for me, this has nothing to do with transgenderism. I literally. If people want to live their life in a transgender way, I do not care. This does not bother me at all. Like, if you're looking for me to be a cultural warrior that, like, bangs the drum about and how evil this is, I'm just not going to be that guy. If you want me to be on board with no transgender surgery for minors, I can aggressively get on that bandwagon. But again, has nothing to do with transgender. Yes or no. So. But this one is about something very specific that has to do with tax. That winds me the fuck up. So. All right, let's let our man say his piece. I don't know. I just get tattoos. When you live at home, how much does your transition cost? Hormones. Yes. How much does it cost? Well, I just got back on medication.
- [87:17]
Eric
Hormones.
- [87:17]
Tom Bilyeu
But no, no. You got tits as well. That was worth three. Why? Because my body is priceless. No. How was it free?
- [87:25]
Eric
Makes sense.
- [87:26]
Tom Bilyeu
Oh, Colorado taxpayers.
- [87:32]
Eric
I've never seen this before.
- [87:34]
Tom Bilyeu
He's not federal, right? Just Colorado. I don't. I don't. I hope that because I just wrote a $4 million check the other day to the IRS. If that's paying for literal titties, what are we doing? I have nothing wrong with trans, but why am I paying for people's boob jobs? Pause it. That is a thousand percent. I have no problem with trans. But why am I paying for. And I'll say it broader, why am I paying for elective surgeries? That is fucking insane. So people are going to say it's gender affirming and all that? That is the wildest shit. There's no universe in which taxpayers, state or otherwise, should be paying for somebody's boob job. No way I'm even talking. You just had cancer. What a fucking horrible tragedy. And still we should not be paying for that if we're. You've got insurance and you're able to take care of your insurance for that elective surgery I love the most. Keeping people alive, curing cancer. Yes. Elective surgeries, no. That shit is so wild. That is wild.
- [88:33]
Eric
Yeah. I mean, look, I. Growing up in England, we had the nhs, so even though it was terrible, you have to wait hours and hours and the. The hospitals are just a bit filthy. Like, it's not great, but when I came to America, babe, and you were telling me that, you know, you have to have insurance and things like that, I was like, well, what if you don't have insurance and you hurt yourself? Like an old lady trips, breaks her hip, she doesn't have insurance, an ambulance won't come and pick her up, or they'll pick her up and then they'll bill her a hundred thousand dollars, and now this poor old lady has zero money, dies in debt. That shocked me beyond belief. I was like, you've got to take care of your people. I understand taxes suck and we pay crappy taxes in the uk, but it broke my heart that you just leave an old lady to die because they can't pay. And then I see this. This infuriates me again to the point of like, love trans. Cool. Do what do you. I don't care. But the idea that someone can't pay a pill, sorry, can't go to the hospital with something drastic, and they're paying for cosmetic surgery probably because of the marketing, you know, the messaging. It's a little sad.
- [89:37]
Tom Bilyeu
Beyond sad. This is crazy. This is the kind of stuff that we should not be tolerating. This is why you spend $1.58 for every dollar in taxi you raise. The things that we're paying for are so absurd. And this is Going to go to the moon. So listen, no shame on her. If they're offering it for free, take it for free.
- [89:57]
Eric
Right?
- [89:58]
Tom Bilyeu
I get it.
- [89:58]
Eric
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
- [89:59]
Tom Bilyeu
But it's like we should, I think, in fact play it because I think she even says like, oh, we shouldn't offer this, but we do. So I took it. Yeah, play it. I have nothing wrong with trans, but why am I paying for people's boobs? Don't get me wrong, I, I don't think it should happen either. But I did abuse the system because why would I pay for it if I can get it for free? Here, here is something that Canada is going to be learning the hard way. So there are people, I guess there's a phrase, I hadn't heard this but like, if England suffers from something, it's going to be in Canada soon enough. Now, Canada, and you're saying like a good thing.
- [90:33]
Eric
No, not at all.
- [90:35]
Tom Bilyeu
Now has rape gangs in the same way that they were happening in England, which is wild unto itself, but they now have these gangs that are armed. And I don't, I don't know what Canada's gun laws are, but I think they're pretty strict certainly compared to the US and so these gangs are now running around like sending basically ransom notes saying if we don't get paid this, like we're gonna cause havoc. And it is. If you don't understand whatever policies you put in place, they are going to be abused. So if you have a policy that's like, we love everybody, everybody should have access to the Canadian system and we don't want to see people have suffered anywhere in the world. So come to us. We're, you know, I don't think they use the word sanctuary, but you'll get the idea we're a sanctuary nation. Like, come, sure you're gonna get, maybe even the majority of people, they're good hearted, they want to contribute, they're amazing. You save them, it's incredible. You will get parasites. They will a hundred percent milk the system. They will abuse it in every way possible. And it, she is just admitting, why would I pay for it if I can get it for free? And it's like, yeah, I'm not even putting her in that category. Like she's just like, listen, like, you shouldn't do it, but you do offer it. And so why am I going to be the fool? It's like when people are like land acknowledgments, like, oh, we're all in stolen land. None of these are going to give their house back to somebody and honestly, fair enough. Why would you be the one person that does it? It doesn't make sense. It's like asking people to pay additional taxes. Why are they going to be the one person that does it? They're not going to be so. But nonetheless, when you create a system like this, you're going to have a flood of people that are taking advantage of the system that have no good intentions whatsoever. And when you have a left leaning personality, which by the way, the group needs, these are amazing people, you want them. But when you have a left leaning personality and you just come at everything from a compassion standpoint, you need a right leaning personality. That's like, hold on, we have to balance this against personal responsibility. You can't just. You don't want to go all the way right. You don't want to go all the way left. And this is what it looks like when you can see that the balance is tipped way too far to the left. And that is the way the left is causing problems on tax. The way the right is doing it is the. I think both sides do the corporate part of it, if we're going to call that corporate socialism. But the, the military shit is wild. So that's where you break on the left. This is crazy. It's crazy.
- [93:10]
Eric
All right, so updates and stay tuned on this subject.
- [93:13]
Tom Bilyeu
Let's go, boys and girls. I love you the bunch. I love you bunches. We're way over today. Forgive us for that and hope you have a wonderful weekend. We will see you Monday. And by the way, don't forget to show love to today's sponsor, Plowed. It's cool technology. Be sure to check it out. Plow, AI forward slash Tom. All right, everybody, have a wonderful weekend.
- [93:33]
Eric
Thank you for having me, guys.
- [93:34]
Tom Bilyeu
Thanks for being here. It's actually a lot of fun.
- [93:36]
Eric
Hand it back to Drew on Monday. Later.