Ex-CIA Andrew Bustamante Breaks Down Government Coverups, Conspiracy Theories, and Global Power Shifts | Andrew Bustamante Pt. 2

Summary

Podcast Summary: Ex-CIA Andrew Bustamante Breaks Down Government Coverups, Conspiracy Theories, and Global Power Shifts | Andrew Bustamante Pt. 2

Podcast: Tom Bilyeu’s Impact Theory
Host: Tom Bilyeu
Guest: Andrew Bustamante (Ex-CIA, author of "Shadow Cell," founder of Everyday Spy)
Air Date: November 26, 2025
Duration (content): [01:00]–[38:09]

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Episode Overview

In this hard-hitting, insight-dense discussion, Tom Bilyeu sits down with former CIA officer Andrew Bustamante to explore the realities behind U.S. foreign policy, global power dynamics, and the information wars shaping our future. Bustamante provides a rare, clear-eyed perspective on Venezuela, China’s growing influence, the looming threat of a new “Cold War,” technological dependency, American economic vulnerability, and the likely trajectory of the U.S.-China rivalry—culminating with candid predictions about America’s potential decline and what individuals should do to prepare.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Venezuela: Smokescreen or Strategic Move?

• Red Herring Narrative:
  Bustamante categorically dismisses mainstream focus on Venezuela as a genuine national security priority, arguing it serves as a distraction from the U.S.-China shadow conflict.

  "I believe Venezuela is a red herring... given to us as a pill that we'll accept because we all kind of agree Venezuela's—We don't know anything about it except Maduro bad. And we all hate drugs."
  — Andrew Bustamante [02:31]

• Narco-Terrorism Defined vs. Reality:
  He explains the misuse of the term “narco-terrorism,” noting that Venezuelan cartels do not meet the definition—they’re not using violence for political change.

  "Cartels aren't using violence, particularly not violence against the United States to change politics."
  — Andrew Bustamante [04:20]

• The Real Numbers:
  Only a small percentage (at most 15%) of the cocaine that enters the U.S. comes through Venezuela; most comes via Mexico, raising questions about the real motive for military action near Venezuela.

  "Why are we focused on Venezuela? Doesn't make any sense in terms of volume."
  — Andrew Bustamante [05:03]

• China’s Military Influence:
  China equips Venezuela with amphibious assault capability—possibly providing the U.S. a rare window into China’s military hardware and tactics.

  "If you really want to know what an amphibious assault would look like of China against Taiwan, you want to get a look under the hood... in Venezuela."
  — Andrew Bustamante [06:05]

• Panama Canal as the Geopolitical Prize:
  China previously controlled key entry/exit ports; a U.S. acquisition led to a sudden uptick in military posturing off Venezuela’s coast.

  "Within two weeks... the first drug boat was blown up off the coast of Venezuela."
  — Andrew Bustamante [07:26]

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2. The Shadow Conflict with China: “The Rice War”

• Cold War 2.0, But Different:
  Bustamante calls the emerging U.S.-China standoff “the rice war”—noting a mutual economic dependency unlike the U.S.-Soviet rivalry.

  "...the Rice War... is that during the Cold War, the United States had no economic reliance on Russia. Now we have a major economic reliance on our largest geopolitical adversary."
  — Andrew Bustamante [10:15]
  "We have to find this way to, like, be in bed together but still kick each other under the sheets."
  — Andrew Bustamante [10:57]

• Clandestine Messaging via Military Moves:
  U.S. shows of force in the Caribbean serve as strategic reminders to China about American reach and readiness to cut off Chinese interests if conflict escalates.

  "We've consolidated our forces. Look how fast it happened when we were fighting Venezuela. How fast do you think it's going to happen if you mess with us?"
  — Andrew Bustamante [12:17]

• Notable Analogy:
  Bustamante compares U.S.-China relations to water polo:

  "All the nasty shit's happening under the water. That's what this war is like with China."
  — Andrew Bustamante [11:18]

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3. China’s Leadership and Internal Dynamics

• Western Fears vs. Chinese Perspective:
  Xi Jinping is admired domestically for rapid modernization and global status—even if Westerners view his methods with suspicion.

  "Under Xi Jinping... their country has modernized, increased their GDP, increased global positioning... That's what Xi's goal is.... Consolidated power means he can move faster."
  — Andrew Bustamante [15:13, 15:51]

• Shift to Tech Sovereignty:
  Since 2017, China aggressively reduced tech imports and accelerated domestic military R&D, focusing on copying and improving Western technologies.

  "From 2001, when we got distracted by a global war on terror, they started focusing... to build our future economy. That's all under Xi's guidance."
  — Andrew Bustamante [18:00]

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4. Taiwan: The Next Flashpoint

• Administrative Takeover Not Invasion:
  China will likely subsume Taiwan not by military force, but by shaping its political structures—similarly to what happened in Hong Kong.

  "I believe China will take Taiwan the same way they took Hong Kong in 2019. They did it administratively. They changed laws, they created administrative bridges..."
  — Andrew Bustamante [21:10]

• Timeline:
  Xi has publicly promised reunification by 2027, and China is already running massive espionage and covert influence operations within Taiwan.

  "He's... worked very hard to meet his promises... His next big promise is reunification with Taiwan."
  — Andrew Bustamante [22:56]

• U.S. Realpolitik Response:
  Expect little more than symbolic resistance; direct military confrontation is unlikely due to the economic interdependence and risk of a “hot” war.

  "I think we're going to sit on our thumbs because it'll be administrative. That's not violent."
  — Tom Bilyeu [23:39]
  "They have levers that they can pull for us because we're dependent on them.... Is Taiwan worth us breaking our dependence and our reliance on China?"
  — Andrew Bustamante [23:42]

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5. The Chip War & Technological Dependency

• Semiconductor Production Vulnerability:
  U.S. efforts (like Biden’s CHIPS Act) to reshoring chip manufacturing are ongoing, but even American tech titans still rely on Taiwanese foundries (TSMC).

  "If China were to take Taiwan... and then say you can no longer interface with them since we cut them off for so long from those chips... that's a kill shot."
  — Tom Bilyeu [26:27]

• China’s Calculated Leverage:
  Bustamante and Bilyeu agree: China is unlikely to immediately cut off chip exports, instead waiting for a moment of maximum leverage.

  "That's because you're assuming China would cut them off. That's why the United States doesn't want a hot conflict on Taiwan."
  — Andrew Bustamante [26:28]

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6. Thucydides Trap and the Risk of War

• Historically Inevitable Conflict?
  Bilyeu references the classic power transition dilemma:

  "12 out of 16 times when a rising superpower has collided with a declining superpower, it has ended up in hot conflict."
  — Tom Bilyeu [28:20]

• U.S. and China Play for Time:
  Both sides try to hold off full-scale conflict, each hoping the other will implode first—from within.

  "How long can they... keep this rice war in perpetuity in the hopes that the United States melts down on its own or... China is going to melt down on its own?"
  — Andrew Bustamante [30:47]

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7. America’s Economic Future: Ticking Clock

• Bustamante’s Prognosis:
  He warns the greatest threat to the U.S. is domestic and economic, not military.

  "All of our woes are tied to our economy, you and me both. And I don't see us taking any steps that are going to resolve our economy right now."
  — Andrew Bustamante [31:06]

• Timeline to Solve the Crisis:
  Americans have approximately 10-15 years to address systemic problems before being forced into a crisis “hurt locker.”

  "10 to 15 years is our window to fix our economy, but I don't think anyone's going to fix it."
  — Andrew Bustamante [31:19]

• The “Jump or Be Pushed” Analogy:
  Bilyeu uses a chilling Dexter metaphor:

  "We are going to fall. If we jump, we can actually fix things. If we wait to be pushed, then it's too late and we really can't get... It's so wild."
  — Tom Bilyeu [33:09]

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8. Individual Wealth & Wages: Prepare for Asset Investing

• On Labor & Wages:
  Bustamante shares how the weakened economy allows employers to underpay while wage values erode further via inflation.

  "Not only are they worth less in terms of dollars right now, but the dollars that you will be paying them will actually be worth less every year moving forward..."
  — Andrew Bustamante [36:05]

• Advice for Workers:
  Learn to invest—anything is better than holding cash, as purchasing power is structurally bound to decrease.

  "All you have to do is throw a dart at the Nasdaq and wherever it lands, you're more likely to have success there than if you keep your money in cash."
  — Andrew Bustamante [37:25]

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Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• “I believe Venezuela is a red herring. …if you can affiliate Venezuela with drugs, then boom… But I believe Venezuela is a big red herring.”
  — Andrew Bustamante [02:31–03:08]

• “We have to find this way to, like, be in bed together but still kick each other under the sheets.”
  — Andrew Bustamante [10:57]

• "All the nasty shit's happening under the water. That's what this war is like with China right now."
  — Andrew Bustamante [11:18]

• “He's [Xi] worked very hard to meet his promises…His next big promise is reunification with Taiwan.”
  — Andrew Bustamante [22:56]

• “I think we're going to sit on our thumbs because it'll be administrative. That's not violent.”
  — Tom Bilyeu [23:39]

• "12 out of 16 times when a rising superpower has collided with a declining superpower, it has ended up in hot conflict."
  — Tom Bilyeu [28:20]

• "10 to 15 years is our window to fix our economy, but I don't think anyone's going to fix it."
  — Andrew Bustamante [31:19]

• "We are going to fall. If we jump, we can actually fix things. If we wait to be pushed, then it's too late..."
  — Tom Bilyeu [33:09]

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Key Takeaways

• Venezuela is merely a geopolitical smokescreen; the U.S.'s true focus is on countering China's ambitions in the Caribbean and beyond.
• The "rice war" (U.S. vs China) is defined by mutual economic reliance, covert intelligence conflict, and a delicate dance of power—all risk escalation but are constrained by deep interdependence.
• China’s rise is not merely about economic or weapons parity, but about forging a credible and attractive global alternative to the U.S.-led order.
• Direct military conflict over Taiwan is unlikely; instead, expect China to use legal and administrative means to achieve integration—forcing the U.S. to opt for symbolism rather than confrontation.
• The U.S. is caught in a dangerous cycle of economic fragility and political paralysis, with a limited window for self-correction.
• Individuals must hedge by learning to invest and build assets, as inflation and wage suppression are now structural features of the system.

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Where to Find Andrew Bustamante

• Website: everydayspy.com
• Social: @EverydaySpy on all major platforms
• YouTube: Andrew Bustamante
• Book: Shadow Cell (CIA memoir, NYT bestseller)

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This episode is essential listening for anyone seeking clarity about today’s shifting world power structure, American decline, and the new global chessboard.

Transcript

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[Tom Bilyeu]

Welcome back to part two of my conversation with Andrew Bustamante. The election is existential now on both sides, so Trump is obviously going after his political rivals. If the Republicans win, I would imagine that whoever comes into office will pardon Trump just to end all of that. I believe he can't pardon himself, so that's off the table. But if the Democrats win, they're going to go after him legally in a big way. So the bad news is that becoming president is now existential, in office and out of office. And this is why, if I were advising Trump, I would say whatever you do, don't pursue Obama. That would be a huge mistake because they will come after you tenfold and then when it switches again, they will come after them tenfold. So anyway, we're in a super weird death loop, but talk to me about Venezuela. So China is the thing that I'm very sad anytime people get distracted because while I would love to hold hands and march into the future with China as an ally, but we not decouple, but we get realistic about not letting anyone control certain aspects of our way of life. Certainly not somebody who has proven that they will very rapidly become an adversary. What is Venezuela all about? How does China figure into this and what should we do?

[Andrew Bustamante]

I'll I'll answer your question directly first and then I'll kind of back fill it with why I think, I think the way I think I believe Venezuela is a red herring. I believe that all of the Venezuela talk and the Venezuela focus is not actually the focus of the president, not actually the focus of the Department of War, as it's now called, I believe that that is all a red herring that's being given to us as a pill that we'll accept because we all kind of agree Venezuela's. We don't know anything about it. That's what we all really believe. We don't know anything about Venezuela except Maduro bad. And we all hate drugs.

[Tom Bilyeu]

So if you can speak for yourself, Andrew Bustamante now.

[Andrew Bustamante]

So if you can.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Kidding.

[Andrew Bustamante]

If you can affiliate Venezuela with drugs, then boom. Ye, of course we're against it. Rah, rah, rah. Let's, let's blow up boats and let's show American power off the coast of our own country. I mean, who doesn't want to cheer for that? I lived in Tampa. It gives you a giant erection every time an F22 takes off. And you're like, yeah, that's America. Right? Like when you're standing in the field and there's Abram tanks that are driving by, the whole world rumbles and you're like, yeah, that's America. Trust me, I get it. I get it. And now we get to do that off the coast of Florida and of course Texas, and Of course, Mississippi, Louisiana. We're all like, oh, fuck, yeah, that, like we're awesome because we get to do it here. We've been projecting that power worldwide. We don't get to rah, rah, rah when it's, you know, off the coast of Israel, but here it's different. So all of that to say, I believe Venezuela is a big red herring. Now why do I believe that that's a big red herring? When you look at the actual evidence, the objective realities of the claims that are being made, we're fighting a drug war against narco terrorisms or narco terrorists. Right? The term narco terrorist has an actual definition, right? And that definition for a terrorist has to be the use of violence to gain a political change. That's. That is what's required of a terrorist. They must use violent, lethal attacks in an effort to force political change. Narco terrorists would just be drug funded or drug related terrorists. That's the definition that's out there for everybody to look up. Well, the cartels aren't doing that. The cartels aren't using violence, particularly not violence against the United States to change politics. That's where the argument comes from recently that they're trying to say, oh, no, Maduro weaponized cocaine. He weaponized cocaine specifically to attack Americans. Even if that was the case, what's the political change that he's trying to drive, because that's the important part about a terrorist, that they have to be driving a political agenda. Secondly, only 15% of all the cocaine, at most, only 15% of the cocaine that enters the United States comes through Venezuela. 100 of 100% of it almost is created in Colombia, but then a small fraction is sent through Venezuela and then shipped up to Puerto Rico, where it goes into the American postal system, and then it can be shipped all over the United States. A small percentage, upwards of 90% of all cocaine goes through Mexico. So why are we focused on Venezuela? If we're trying to fight cocaine, why wouldn't we focus on Mexico? Why are we focused on Venezuela? Doesn't make any sense in terms of volume. Then you start to think about other issues. One of Venezuela's top two military weapons partners are Russia and China. Russia, historically, China. More currently, Venezuela also maintains one of the largest amphibious assault forces in all of Latin America. And guess who provided all of their amphibious assault weapons?

[Tom Bilyeu]

China.

[Andrew Bustamante]

China. So if you really want to know what an amphibious assault would look like of China against Taiwan, you want to get a look under the hood of what the amphibious assault looks like in Venezuela. What do their capabilities look like? What do the weapons look like? How would they use them? China's number one trading partner is actually Pakistan. So China's number one weapons importer is Pakistan. Pakistan buys the most Chinese weapons, but almost all of the weapons that Pakistan buys from China are focused on ground warfare and airborne warfare, radar detection, ballistic missiles, et cetera, that they're using against India. It doesn't give us any. And Pakistan's a US ally, so we know everything we need to know about Chinese weapons because our Pakistani partners are probably giving us the information. But we know very little about China's amphibious assault capability. But Venezuela would be our best insight into that. Add into that mix the fact that the Panama Canal was a major focus of Trump during the presidential administration because he claimed that China controlled the Panama Canal. That's not fully correct. The more correct way of saying it would be that China controlled the entrance and exit ports of the Panama Canal. They were predominantly owned by a Hong Kong subsidiary. In March of this year, Trump demanded that that Hong Kong subsidiary sell a majority stake to U.S. investment company BlackRock. I believe it was so then in August of this year that that transfer actually happened. So it was Only in August, August 25th of this year that the Panama Canal became pejoratively owned by US investment firms instead of majority owned by Chinese investment firms. And then within two weeks, after that date, the first drug boat was blown up off the coast of Venezuela.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Really.

[Andrew Bustamante]

So I'm not saying we have smoking guns, but I'm saying we have multiple verified independent sources of information that point to the fact that our conflict in Venezuela actually isn't about Venezuela.

[Tom Bilyeu]

So the boats that we're blowing up, are they us really going, oh, these are narco boats or are these boats that China is working with them to do a thing and we want to keep sending a message to China?

[Andrew Bustamante]

No, I believe that they're actually carrying drugs. And if you look at some of the, not only the drug boats between Mexico or between Venezuela, United States, but even the drug boats that are going to Europe, like they're busted old boats, they're handmade, they're leaky, they're, they're, they're, they're not, they're not significant enough that you would imagine they'd be worth a six figure missile to blow them up. Right. But that's what we're doing. Maybe it's five, maybe it's a $50,000 missile, not $100,000 missile that we're using to blow up the boat. Either way, it's a $50 boat. So I do believe that there really are drugs. I do believe those drugs really are moving and I do believe that we really are impacting the flow of drugs. But we're impacting a part like a fraction of the 15 maximum of cocaine flow that's actually coming into the United States.

[Tom Bilyeu]

If we really, I totally buy that that's all a red herring. But now I want to understand. So if this is really, I think we're already in a cold war with China, that seems patently obvious to me. So in, in the rubric of this is a cold war with China, why, what are we doing blowing up the boats? Is it just a reminder we have these missiles?

[Andrew Bustamante]

I mean, it seems to consolidate our military in the Caribbean.

[Tom Bilyeu]

To justify sending them there.

[Andrew Bustamante]

Yeah, to justify sending our military to the Caribbean. Because China not only predominantly owned the entrance and exit port for the Panama Canal, they predominantly own multiple Panama, not Venezuela. So do you, it's that, it's that part of the ocean.

[Tom Bilyeu]

But do you think there's a clandestine battle that's happening that we just aren't aware of?

[Andrew Bustamante]

So I think the answer to that is, the simplest answer is yes. My, the book that I wrote about my own experience with CIA talks about the start of what we call a shadow conflict with China. Right. An intelligence battle, an intelligence war with China. And the big difference between the Cold War that you and I live through the tail end of with Russia, and

[Tom Bilyeu]

I lived through the whole thing. I'm older than you, my friend. Not the whole thing, I suppose, since it started at World War II. But.

[Andrew Bustamante]

But the big difference between the Cold War with Russia and, I don't know, we should come up with a name for it. Let's just call it the Rice War. I'll be racist.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Damn.

[Andrew Bustamante]

The rice war that we're dealing with now.

[Tom Bilyeu]

You heard it here first, everybody.

[Andrew Bustamante]

The rice war that we're dealing with now is that during the Cold War, the United States had no economic reliance on Russia. They were two completely separate economies. But now we have a major economic reliance on our largest geopolitical adversary. So it's not so easy to have a standard Cold War where we just turn a cold shoulder and we put up an iron curtain. Now we have to meet over rice, we have to talk, we have to pretend like we're friends, even though we wonder who's poisoning the rice. Right? On both sides. I kind of like this, this analogy right now. Right? Especially since I think we grow the rice and they actually buy our rice. There's all sorts of interesting fucked up things about our relationship with China, but that's what we're dealing with. So we can't just out China. If we out China, we go back into a tariff war. We stop getting plastics, they stop getting chips. It all gets really fucking messy. So we have to find this way to, like, be in bed together but still kick each other under the sheets. It reminds me. It reminds me of the sport water polo. I don't know if you follow water polo.

[Tom Bilyeu]

I know enough about it to know

[Andrew Bustamante]

exactly where you're headed. Yes. I knew nothing about water polo until I went to college. And then I became friends with a water polo player. And I only then discovered it's a dirty fucking sport under the water. They do horrible things to each other and then they just pass the ball up top. So when we watch, we get to see all this cool action above the water. But all the nasty shit's happening under the water. That's what this war is like with China right now. So China owns huge chunks of the Caribbean. China has massive leases on infrastructure and military bases and ports all across the Caribbean. They have rare earth mineral rights across the Caribbean. Their major shipping routes go through the Caribbean. We move all of our shit to the Caribbean just to tell the Chinese, don't forget, don't forget this is our house and that's what we're doing here right now? We've consolidated our forces. Look how fast it happened when we were fighting Venezuela. How fast do you think it's going to happen if you mess with us? How fast can we take your Caribbean investments? How fast can we cut off your flow, not just to the American market, but also to all of your own rare earth minerals and all of your supply chains in the Caribbean? And oh, by the way, if you think that you're going to continue to grow influence in Latin America and South America, which it has, China's increased its partnerships all across Latin America.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Massively.

[Andrew Bustamante]

Love the Gold Corridor. Yeah. By the way, don't forget that we're their neighbor. It's a huge message. It's a huge message that was arguably effective enough to walk China off the tariff cliff that Trump just closed with them recently.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Taking a short break. But there's more impact theory after. Stay tuned.

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[Tom Bilyeu]

Thanks for staying tuned. Now let's get back to it. That is a very good breakdown. I knew that this was a move about China, but to be honest, I had not started putting the pieces together of specifically what they're doing. I didn't realize how much of China's shipping went through the Caribbean. That is very interesting. How do you see this playing out? Is China. So, first of all, this is one of those I have to be very careful because I really want to believe this, uh, but I'm hearing reports that Xi is losing power in China. Now, for anybody that follows the timeline of China, Deng Xiaoping, listen, he was the Tiananmen Square guy, so only clap so hard, but he's also the one actually responsible for China's great leap forward. Xi is a reversion to Mao. And so seeing Xi come into power and turn the mouse, picket on and start purging, a whole bunch of people start really going back to their communist ways. That makes me uneasy for the Chinese people. Now, they may tell me not to worry, and they love it. Entirely possible. But as somebody who has just an absolute allergic reaction to Mao, Stalin, Lenin, like a massive allergic reaction, I'm looking At this going, oh, I really hope he's losing power. Do you, have you paid close attention? Is he losing power? Is that just a pipe dream on my behalf?

[Andrew Bustamante]

Well, I don't think it's just on your behalf. So Xi Jinping is one of the strongest leaders that China has ever seen. He is very much like a Putin. He's very much like a Netanyahu to the Chinese. There are many people who celebrate him as a hero, not necessarily as any kind of villain.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Right.

[Andrew Bustamante]

So your allergic reaction is a valid reaction as a Westerner, but as an Easterner, we have to try to look at the situation through their eyes. Under Xi Jinping, in the last 10 years, their country has modernized, increase their GDP, increase their global positioning, increase the, their reduce their reliance on manual fabrication and manufacturing, increase their reliance on high technology, which increases their overall standing not only as a, a center of excellence in a modern first world country, but also as a global alternative to the United States. That's what Xi's goal is. The reason he's turning back to Maoist tendencies isn't because he believes that communism is the way of the future. It's because he understands that consolidated power means he can move faster.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Whereas I think he also looked at Russia and was like, we're not going to let that happen here. And these capitalists, like, yeah, useful, but they get a bit uppity. But I know how to handle that.

[Andrew Bustamante]

Possibly. But the point is what all of the world authoritarians are trying to do right now, whether it's Putin or whether it's Netanyahu, I do classify him as authoritarian. Right. Again, Israel is different than Jews. Israel knows that Netanyahu is an authoritarian. You know, I'm talking to you, Israel. But either way, Xi Jinping understands that he needs to bypass the process to move fast enough. When you look at their, when you look at, I mean, the most obvious thing to look at is their, is their fighter aircraft. If you compare Chinese fighter aircraft to American and Russian fighter aircraft, there's only like seven of them that are in production right now. Every one of their aircraft is almost a carbon copy of either an American model or a Russian model. It's crystal clear that they're fabricating based off of stolen, stolen plans. Right. They even number them the same way. Right. We have an F35. They have a J35. Why is it called J35? Because the J stands for Jin Jiji, which is the word fighter in Chinese. So it's literally the F35. Right. They've modeled this all the Way down to the SU10. So they've got this, they copy and then they refabricate on their own. And that largely took off in 2017. In 2017, you started to see a huge reduction in Chinese importing of technology, specifically technology that was related to their military infrastructure. And it was because they had finally grown their own indigenous capability to create high performance weapons, high performance engines, high performance avionics, high performance, you name it, technology. And that started to become their new mantra. China knows that the United States gained global dominance because we stopped creating corn and soybeans and we started creating financial tools and we started creating software and we started creating weapons and we started creating digital healthcare devices, storage devices, computers, software, the cloud, et cetera. So that's what China's been focusing on. Telecom technology, AI, robotics. They've been focusing on that the whole time that we were focusing on a war on terror. So from 2001, when we got distracted by a global war on terror, they started focusing in on how can we just suck the west dry of technological information and use this as an opportunity to build our future economy. That's all under Xi's guidance. So the average Chinese person sees the rise of their middle class. The average Chinese person sees more money, more power, more influence, more global standing. They can reach more parts of the world. The world welcomes the Chinese in a way it never did before outside of the United States. Do they still have a real estate crisis? Yes. Do they still have an aging population? Yes. So does South Korea. So does Japan. So do lots of pro Western Asian countries. So does the United States. So is it really such a big deal? Like we, we try to keep a scorecard. You can't keep a scorecard between east and west that you couldn't imagine two more different cultures than American culture and Chinese culture. Thanks for letting me. I give you these long ass answers today. I apologize.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Why? Because it seems whatever's educational, I want to learn more. So I'll take it if I think you're going too hard on a tangent. Well, first, yes, we could edit it, but I would just interrupt you. Okay, so that all makes sense. Is China going to take Taiwan?

[Andrew Bustamante]

I still believe that China is, is on track to take Taiwan.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Do we have a timeline?

[Andrew Bustamante]

We, we all think that it's going to. We all assume it's some kind of military takeover. My original estimate was that China would make aggressive moves on Taiwan before the 2024 election. In hindsight, you can actually see that I, I estimated correctly. They didn't launch an amphibious Assault of Taiwan. Instead, what they did is they launched an espionage campaign that shaped the election of the prime minister of Taiwan in October of 23, just before the election in the United States and just before Donald Trump took over in 24. So you can see right now, Taiwan has a split government. The prime minister is pro independence, but the parliament is predominantly, majoratively pro China reunification.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Wow. I didn't realize there was a movement inside of Taiwan.

[Andrew Bustamante]

Oh, absolutely. The KMT is a. The kmt, which was, interestingly, the original group that left the mainland under Chiang Kai Shek to take refuge in Taiwan. They were the original people who separated from China, and now they are the ones that want to reunify back with the homeland. So it's a very interesting turn in politics. Very similar to how our feels like

[Tom Bilyeu]

to me, if the southern states and the northern states had split and all of a sudden, you know, whatever, years later, the south is like, actually we want to reunify with the northern states. Like, it feels like they would still be bitter rivals.

[Andrew Bustamante]

Right, exactly. And that's what's so interesting, that they're not. The KMT is pro reunification, whereas there's. The real movement on Taiwan has been a movement of independence. That's been what's really been interesting about the growth of Taiwan. It never intended to be a. An independent country. It intended to reunify and kind of take it back over from Mao Zedong. Chiang Kai Shek was backed by the United States when he took refuge on Taiwan. They all expected they would come back and take the country again. It just never happened. So that's changed over time to now just be a reunification party in general. And. And they own. They control the majority of the parliament on Taiwan. So you. You have a split government in Taiwan very much like you have a split government here in the United States. So we're already seeing China heavily invest in espionage, information warfare. Another fantastic search term for anybody who wants to look this up themselves is just Chinese espionage on Taiwan, Chinese information warfare, Chinese covert influence on Taiwan. You'll see it. It's there. It's just not making the front page of any newspapers. Right. So they're making those moves now. I believe China will take Taiwan the same way they took Hong Kong in 2019. They did it administratively. They changed laws, they created administrative bridges that put Hong Kong under Chinese Beijing control. And then they just wrote laws and signed those laws into law so that when they moved into Hong Kong physically, anybody who tried to resist was breaking the law. And that gave them the reign that they needed to get violent and, and arrest people. And we all forgot about that because it happened at the same time as Covid. But in 2019, China went into Hong Kong in a very violent, very abrupt, very big way. And ever since then, Hong Kong has been part of China. That's the M.O. for what they'll do in Taiwan. Timeline. That's the difficult part. She has promised to reunify with Taiwan, but I believe it was 2027. I believe he made that public promise as part of his 25 year plan. But he's. And he has worked very hard to meet his promises. He had a promise in 2024 to be economically or to be technologically dominant in the world. And I think Chinese people would agree he has met that goal. And now his next big promise is reunification with Taiwan. So between now and then, we should probably expect some more big moves from China.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Wowza. How do you think that'll play out for the U.S. what will our reaction be?

[Andrew Bustamante]

I think we're going to sit on

[Tom Bilyeu]

our thumbs because it'll be administrative. That's not violent.

[Andrew Bustamante]

We have no access. Part of it. Why put American troops in harm's way? Why stand in the way of this rice war that we're already in the middle of? Right. If we try to fight for Taiwan, then China is just going to cut off our access to other things that we need. China cut off our access to rare earth minerals. And we changed our. Almost overnight, we changed our narrative. They know they have, they have levers that they can pull for us because we're dependent on them. So the question will become, is Taiwan worth us breaking our dependence and our reliance on China? And what would that mean for the United States to not have what China is giving us, not have disposable goods, not have cloths and fabrics, not have shoes, not. I mean, what would that actually look like? We don't even have the manufacturing capability here to do it. That's why we're making friends with India, hoping that India will be there for us when we cut ties with China. But China's also making inroads with India to make sure that India sides with them when they cut sides when they cut ties with us. So India is in the best geopolitical position of any country out there right now, having the two largest economics economic superpowers kind of vying for its affection.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Right.

[Andrew Bustamante]

But I don't. I believe that when China makes its move on Taiwan, we'll put up our vote in the UN that it's. That it's illegal and it's not supposed to happen. And we should, and you should back out. Just like we're seeing with Ukraine and Russia right now, all the, all the UN members who are like, oh, we vote against. This is a bad idea, you're breaking the law. But they're not doing anything else. That's how it's going to work.

[Tom Bilyeu]

What about though, the tsmc, tmsc, the chips, like, how do we get around that?

[Andrew Bustamante]

So Biden launched the Chip act when he was still in office here. And a part of that Chip act was not only creating an avenue for TSMC to start building manufacturing base here on the United States or here in the United States, but also creating an indigenous capability for the United States to create their own high performance chips. TSMC doesn't have IP over the chips that they create. Their chips that they create are ours.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Yes, but like we can't yet manufacture.

[Andrew Bustamante]

Correct.

[Tom Bilyeu]

As far as I know, the person that's the closest is Elon with the new chip. But they're making a chip specifically for xai. Either XAI or Tesla, I can't remember which, but that's with tmsc. Tsmc. I cannot ever remember those four letters.

[Andrew Bustamante]

I think it's ts, tsmc. But somebody can fact check us.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Yes. So if China were to take Taiwan administratively or otherwise, and then say you can no longer interface with them since we cut them off for so long from those chips, I can't imagine they're going to smile on that. And that would be a very

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like,

[Tom Bilyeu]

that's a kill shot.

[Andrew Bustamante]

That's because you're assuming that China would cut them off. That's why the United States doesn't want a hot conflict on Taiwan. Because if, Yeah, I get that.

[Tom Bilyeu]

But like if I'm trying to listen, I've read enough about China to prognosticate. So here's how I think this is going to play out. I'm Xi jinping. Yeah. In 2027, I'm not going to cut off your access to chips because there are things that I need to do to make sure that I can squeeze you to death. And so I'm going to make a couple moves and then in whatever 2033, I'm going to start suddenly now you can't get access to, to the chips that you need. And so if the US does not get very aggressive about decoupling is always a risky word because people really start going crazy. But if we aren't able to make ourselves technologically independent, we are going to be in a very weakened position. People need to only look to the communications that Xi has done when it's aimed at a Chinese audience, where he's like, yeah, we're going to start being dismissive of the US on an international stage. Like, that was a very conscious move. And so this is how Thucydides trap goes off, where the US Is like, okay, we're not going to do anything in Taiwan because we don't have the plausible deniability that we do need. But all of a sudden, oh, sorry, did we sink a Chinese ship going through the Caribbean? Our bad. Like, we totally thought that was a Venezuelan drug boat. So it'll be. It'll be things like that that will just keep, like, escalating the tension. China is. China believes that they have a mandate from heaven to run the world, and they can't have an uppity declining power like America stand in the way of that. So, I mean, it's like 12 out of 16 times when a rising superpower has collided with a declining superpower, it has ended up in hot conflict.

[Andrew Bustamante]

Yeah.

[Tom Bilyeu]

So maybe we're in the four out of 16, but the odds aren't with us. Correct.

[Andrew Bustamante]

I am on the same page as you are. And it's just a matter of when and how those chips start to fall. Because China outmaneuvered us for about 12 years by. By building a rival or building the beginnings of a rival technological economy. And in creating that rival, it gave the rest of the world an option. Do you buy from the United States or do you buy from China? You all need this technology. You all need cell phones, you all need laptops, you all need MRI machines, You all need, you know, pacemakers. You all need it. So who are you going to buy it from? The United States at the same premium that they've always charged because they've been the global monopoly. Or are you going to buy it from us? Our Chinese alternative, which might be less effective, might be less good, might just be a copy of them, but it comes at a much reduced price. More and more countries of the world are buying Chinese. They're buying Chinese alternatives, which is not only diminishing our economy, it's also diminishing the premium that we put on our own materials. And the only solution that we've been able to come up with so far is to start tariffing the rest of the world and negotiating. If you stop buying Chinese and you start buying American, we'll reduce your tariffs. That was the whole tariff war that, that. That Trump put in motion that nobody seemed to understand at the moment, and hopefully they understand that now. He wasn't trying to like increase tariffs to make money from Europe. He was trying to, to create an artificial negotiating point to get Europe to concede to United States technology rather than Chinese technology. Especially when the majority of the cars, the electric cars in Germany are Chinese, the electric cars in Spain are Chinese, the electric car in France are Chinese. They're not American electric cars. So you see all of this playing out. I agree with you. A hot conflict is the most likely conflict. Traditionally speaking, China knows that too. And both countries know that as soon as a hot conflict erupts, as soon as there is interstate war, everybody loses. They both lose people, they lose reputation, they lose technology, they lose growth opportunity, they lose economic benefits. They lose because that's what history has shown us. So how long can they, can they kind of keep this rice war in perpetuity and in the hopes that the United States melts down on its own, or what we're talking about here? China is going to melt down on its own. They're hoping for an internal meltdown without ever having to resort to hot conflict.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Talk to me about America's meltdown. What do you think the likelihood is?

[Andrew Bustamante]

I mean, when you, when you put it in probabilities? I'm only talking about an economic meltdown. I believe that all of our woes are tied to our economy, you and me both. And I don't see us taking any steps that are going to resolve our economy right now. So my, my estimate is that 10 to 15 years is kind of 10 to 15 years is our window to fix our economy, but I don't think anyone's going to fix it. So it's really after the 15 year mark that we're going to be either in a hurt locker where we have declined too much to fix ourselves, or we're actually on the fringe of social meltdown or political meltdown. So. But I do believe we have about 15 years to figure it out. The question is, are we willing to put ourselves in a great depression that we start for ourselves in order to fix our own financial problems? And that's really the only solution that we have. Because just like you were saying earlier, all the economic incentives for a government are inflationary. Create more currency, increase the value of assets artificially, make the wealthy who own the assets artificially wealthier, using more dollars that actually value at less per dollar. And that's how you keep everybody appeased and you squeeze the bottom class and the middle class gets squeezed because they have no way of investing in assets, but the overall wealth remains predominantly high.

[Tom Bilyeu]

We're hitting pause for a moment, but there's plenty more ahead, so don't go anywhere with VRBoCare.

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Help is always ready before, during, and after your stay.

[Tom Bilyeu]

We've planned for the plot twists, so

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support is always available because a great

[Andrew Bustamante]

trip starts with peace of mind.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Thanks for sticking around. Let's get right back into the action. Do you ever watch Dexter?

[Andrew Bustamante]

No.

[Tom Bilyeu]

My wife does. And so I've seen, like, little snippets of it. And there was a spoiler alert. There was a very interesting scene where a serial killer, not Dexter, has a woman on a ledge. And he's like, you have to jump. And she's like, can you please push me? And he goes, that's not how this works. And she's like, but I don't know if I can. And he goes, well, I bet if I go get your kids and start throwing them off, sooner or later you're going to jump. And that's the position that the American economy is in right now. We are going to fall. If we jump, we can actually fix things. If we wait to be pushed, then it's too late and we really can't get. We can't make ourselves jump. It's so wild. And it's been. I mean, I've talked about it many times. Exactly what you do. It's called a beautiful deleveraging, which is a terrible word for everyone is going to suffer, but we'll try to make sure everybody suffers roughly on par so that nobody feels singled out. But we're all going to suffer. But on the other side of this, like, we can get back to, like, growth and being the America that we used to be. People just can't do it. It's the same way I feel when people are like, Americans won't pick strawberries or whatever. I'm like, well, if there's no other option, they'll pick the. Out of those strawberries. The problem is right now they can get government subsidies. And the really bad news is, as you subsidize them, you are pushing us off the cliff. And so, sure, they, they fall a little bit later, but they fall a lot harder. So there's a lot more blood splattered on the ground. It's just, it. It's one of those where getting people to pay attention long enough to actually understand the thing that you just explained is impossible, I'm finding. And so it's terrifying when I, because

[Andrew Bustamante]

I, I try to educate my company on where, where our economy is going Because I want, I want the people that work for my company to have the most success possible. And I understand that just by virtue of the fact that they work for my company and don't own my company, that already puts them at a disadvantage. So I try to get them to understand how this works. And I recently had a conversation with a few of the folks that are my full time staff and this seems to connect with them, right? We have to hire a new person. Just because of the growth of the company, we have to hire a new person. So as we were evaluating how much we were willing to pay and who we were going to find and what our qualifications were, my people themselves landed on the conclusion like, oh, we're in a down economy right now. Everybody's looking for work. So we'll be able to get a very good person at a very low price. They understood economics enough to understand that they have negotiating power. We have the job. There's lots of people out there looking for the job, right? So we don't have to pay the person what they're worth, we just have to pay them what the market is worth. And the market right now is down. So we can get a $90,000 a year person for $75,000 a year. And they understood that. And I was like, I was super proud of them. I was like, yes, you get it. That is with everything else in our economy right now too, right? Everything is desperate, everything is on the decline. So, so not only are you, are you is a well educated, skilled, hardworking professional, not only are they worth less in terms of dollars right now, but the dollars that you will be paying them will actually be worth less every year moving forward that you continue to pay them. So I'm going to, we're going to pay somebody $75,000 a year who's worth $90,000 a year. And then next year when we pay them the same salary, we're actually paying them less because the dollar has going to decrease and project that over three or five years. And then it started to really connect with the people in my company. They're like, oh shit. They connected it to their own salary and they're like, that means that the money I'm making right now is going to be the same next year, but worth less. Yeah, it's going to buy less car, it's going to buy less milk, it's going to buy less eggs. And then I was like, yeah, that's why I want to encourage you to learn about how to invest, how to invest in the market. How to invest in currency, how to invest in anything. I had another wealthy client who was like, all you have to do is throw a dart at the nasdaq and wherever it lands, you're more likely to have success there than if you keep your money in cash.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Sad but true. For a while. It all gets very volatile, very fast. I love sitting down with you. Where can people follow along with you?

[Andrew Bustamante]

You'll always find [e-mail]. you'll find me on social media everywhere at Everyday Spy. I have a YouTube, YouTube channel for Andrew Bustamante.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Yes, you do, and it's killing it.

[Andrew Bustamante]

I appreciate you very much, sir. And then of course, you'll find me on bookshelves now all over the world with my. With my CIA memoir selling author, New York Times bestseller. It's amazing, man.

[Tom Bilyeu]

It is amazing.

[Andrew Bustamante]

I appreciate you. And that book is called Shadow Cell. And yeah, anywhere people want to find me, I'm happy to meet them there.

[Tom Bilyeu]

I love it. All right, everybody, if you haven't already, be sure to subscribe. And until next time, my friends, be legendary. Take care. Peace.

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