Why Ideological Direction Matters: Tom and Drew Chart the Slippery Slope of American Politics

Summary

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Podcast Summary: Why Ideological Direction Matters – Tom and Drew Chart the Slippery Slope of American Politics

Podcast: Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Date: November 14, 2025
Host: Tom Bilyeu
Co-Host: Mason

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Episode Overview

In this episode, Tom Bilyeu and Mason dive deep into the current ideological rifts shaping American politics, focusing on the implications of ideological direction—whether it’s right or left. The conversation navigates breaking news about Trump and Epstein, economic policy debates, the dangers of authoritarian tendencies, and the long-term consequences of socialism versus state-managed capitalism. Throughout, Tom maintains a strong, sometimes urgent, tone as he advocates for intellectual honesty, vigilance about historical precedents, and the importance of understanding "amplitude"—the scale and potential impact of policy outcomes.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Breaking News: Trump/Epstein Emails

• [01:10–02:03]
  • Mason shares a developing story about an alleged email from Jeffrey Epstein, suggesting Trump knew about "the girls."
    • Mason: "Newly released emails from a 2019...Epstein told Maxwell that a victim of his spent hours at my house with Trump. The email says."
  • Tom reflects on Trump’s track record with women, referencing the "grab them by the hoo-ha" comment and expressing skepticism that any new information will be an exonerating "smoking gun."
    • Tom [03:07]: “Trump does not have a line with women that I’m comfortable with...I’m gonna guess that no one is gonna like what they find.”

2. Deficit Spending and Budgets: Reverse Robin Hood

• [04:35–05:03]
  • Tom describes an unbalanced budget as a form of "reverse Robin Hood," stealing from everyone to benefit the rich.
    • Tom [04:35]: "A unbalanced budget steals from everybody and is a reverse Robin Hood and gives to the rich...I think it is legitimately evil or a level of stupidity that cannot be forgiven."
  • Discussion extends to Trump’s "Big Beautiful Bill," which contributed to the deficit.

3. Ideological Slippery Slopes: Socialism, Communism, and Lessons from History

• [05:16–10:15]
  • Tom is adamant that the danger in pursuing socialist or communist policies is directional. He recommends three books—The Gulag Archipelago, Tombstone/Mao: The Unknown Story, and Red Famine—arguing that they reveal the true murderous consequences of socialist regimes.
    • Tom [06:17]: “If you read any three of those books, you'll walk away going, oh, got it. Like this kills at a level that makes Hitler look like the Junior Death Squad. Like, it is insane how many people. Mao, Lenin, Stalin, those guys, they knew how to kill.”
  • Tom shares a disturbingly memorable anecdote from Red Famine:
    • Tom [08:07]: “…it was a story of a woman who was eating her own seven year old daughter. And I was like, yep, I'm out. So that'll keep you awake.”

4. Directionality & Taking Leaders at Their Word

• [10:19–11:26]
  • Tom argues for taking politicians at face value regarding their stated ideologies, using Mamdani (a reference to a socialist-leaning politician) as an example.
  • He references Nick Fuentes and the importance of recognizing when someone “tells you who they are.”
    • Tom [10:24]: “Here’s a base assumption I have. When somebody tells you who they are, you can believe them.”

5. Amplitude: The Scale of Potential Harm

• [13:07–17:56]
  • Concept of "amplitude" is introduced—a key term in Tom's argument about the dangers posed by different ideologies.
    • Tom [17:54]: “Amplitude, motherfuckers. Like how he's not going to become Hitler.”
    • Tom [17:56]: “...He would walk into a room, hey Drew, I don't like the things you're saying. Are you on board? No. Cool...And then the bodyguard shoots you in the fucking face. And I'm saying, Trump's never going to do that.”

6. Authoritarianism: Right vs. Left Tendencies

• [17:24–21:12]
  • Mason presses Tom on Trump’s potential for authoritarian behavior compared to left-wing figures. Tom concedes Trump may lock up dissenters or mimic China’s state/corporate fusion, but distinguishes this from the genocidal history of communism.
    • Tom [20:20]: “Worst case scenario, Trump is directionally in that place [China-like state capitalism]...But it's not going to be murderous.”

7. The Danger of Socialism’s "Nice" Rhetoric

• [23:14–25:04]
  • Tom highlights that far-left ideologies "hide in plain sight" by promising attractive policies (free buses, rent freezes), yet historically, such policies have led to catastrophe.
    • Tom [23:33]: “Because they say things that sound nice. Hitler yells into a microphone...Mom Donnie's like, I'm gonna make shit free. What do you mean? I love everybody. I'm gonna make the buses free...And what I hear is, that's what fucking Mao said.”

8. Individual vs. Ideology; Why Tom Fears Socialism More

• [28:51–32:36]
  • Tom discloses his personal biases: he fears socialism and communism more than state capitalism, citing historical atrocities.
    • Tom [29:11]: “The thing that I am really focused on is how much energy is going into the dsa, is going into socialism, is going into communism, is going against capitalism…”
    • Tom [31:26]: “If anybody detects that I have a far bigger reaction to one side than the other, that would be why.”

9. Comparing Democratic Socialism to Nordic Models

• [33:52–37:24]
  • Responding to a chat comment, Tom draws a distinction between real socialism and the highly-taxed, robust social programs of the Nordic countries. He resists claims that Mamdani's policies are "Nordic style" socialism.
    • Tom [36:24]: “The Nordic countries are not socialist...what they're doing in the Nordic countries, which is all private markets all the time, but just everyone is taxed to death.”

10. Abolition of the Family: A Red Flag

• [38:19–40:12]
  • Tom expresses deep alarm at DSA rhetoric about "abolishing the family." He invokes historical parallels (e.g., Romanian orphanages) to show disasters that occur when the state replaces the family unit.
    • Tom [38:30]: "Kids are the responsibility of the state. Hey, California, I'm looking at you...that is excruciatingly dangerous."

11. 50-Year Mortgages and Housing Policy

• [41:10–45:58]
  • Tom and Mason discuss Trump’s proposal for 50-year mortgages as a financial maneuver akin to "insulin injections" for a sick system. They explore its implications, including home values, foreign ownership, and the need for more housing.
    • Tom [41:31]: “…any president tying themselves to, like, more socialized, not socialism, but socialized stuff…Ack ack. Especially right now, like, God damn.”

12. Stimulus, Economic Policy, and Modern Monetary Theory

• [45:58–53:27]
  • Tom critiques the notion behind modern monetary theory with a scathing response to a White House advisor’s attempt to explain government borrowing and money printing.
    • Tom [53:27]: “This video radicalized me when I watched this. I was like, oh, wait, what? This is so wild. This is so wild. But he's a senior economic advisor.”
  • Tom uses the Titanic/lifeboat analogy to lament systemic failures and the challenge of communicating economic complexity to the public.

13. On Ideological Echo Chambers and Intellectual Honesty

• Running Throughout
  • Tom and Mason repeatedly emphasize the need to debate ideas openly, resist censorship, and approach all sides with intellectual rigor and skepticism—even when emotionally charged.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Trump's Track Record:

  • Tom [03:07]: "Trump does not have a line with women that I’m comfortable with...I'm gonna guess that no one is gonna like what they find."

• On Reading About Historical Atrocities:

  • Tom [08:07]: “It was a story of a woman who was eating her own seven year old daughter. And I was like, yep, I'm out. So that'll keep you awake.”

• On the Dangers of Ideological Slopes:

  • Tom [17:54]: “Amplitude, motherfuckers. Like how he's not going to become Hitler.”

• On Binary Thinking and Amplitude:

  • Tom [27:20]: "It's not really consistent to judge the Dems by their worst case potential and MAGA by their best case intentions. It's a clear double standard."
  • Tom [28:31]: “Binary thinking is very useful. It will help you make decisions, but it is also very detached from reality.”

• On Policy Rhetoric Hiding Catastrophe:

  • Tom [23:33]: “Because they say things that sound nice...And what I hear is, that's what fucking Mao said.”

• On the Abolition of Family:

  • Tom [38:30]: “Kids are the responsibility of the state. Hey, California, I'm looking at you. If...the school can work with the kid to do something against the parent's wish, you are undermining the family.”

• On Modern Monetary Theory:

  • Tom [53:27]: “This video radicalized me when I watched this. I was like, oh, wait, what?...But he's a senior economic advisor.”

• On Policy Bubbles and the Stock Market:

  • Tom [59:42]: “People get the money. Some people just spend it...Some people look at it and go, I just got extra money...So the stock market will pump. You'll get a rally in Pokemon cards.”

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Timestamps for Important Segments

| Timestamp | Segment/Topic | |-----------|-------------------------------------------------------| | 01:10 | Epstein/Trump breaking news | | 04:35 | Deficit spending as "reverse Robin Hood" | | 05:16 | The dangers of socialism/communism | | 10:24 | Taking politicians at their word | | 13:07 | Parsing amplitude: bad policies vs. dangerous ideologies | | 17:24 | Trump's worst-case scenario compared to Maoist regimes| | 23:33 | Populist policy rhetoric masking ideology | | 28:31 | On binary thinking and "amplitude" in political analysis | | 33:52 | Nordic countries and democratic socialism key differences | | 38:19 | Abolishing the family as a red flag | | 41:10 | 50-Year mortgage proposal discussion | | 45:58 | Stimulus payments and the "life raft" analogy | | 51:46 | Modern Monetary Theory lampooned | | 59:42 | Stock market consequences of stimulus money |

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Conclusion

This episode of Impact Theory stands out for its passionate, candid analysis of contemporary political ideologies and their potential consequences. Tom Bilyeu is explicit about his concerns over the growing tolerance for socialist ideas, while acknowledging the need for nuance in evaluating both left and right-wing policies. The discussion is punctuated with memorable analogies and pointed critiques, and Tom’s instinct for clarity, historical awareness, and honest inquiry comes through in every segment. For listeners seeking a bracing, deeply engaged perspective on the underlying dynamics driving America’s political fault lines, this episode delivers insight—along with a healthy dose of skepticism and urgency.

Transcript

[Tom Bilyeu]

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[Tom Bilyeu]

What is up, everybody? Welcome to the Tom Bilyeu show live. We've got some scrambling going on here, boys and girls, because we have checklists that are not being checked.

[Mason]

Let's jump into it.

[Tom Bilyeu]

So, Trump, what's the breaking news? I don't know.

[Mason]

Trump knew about the girls. Jeffrey Epstein says in an email.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Wait, they found an email.

[Mason]

Newly released emails from a 2019 When Jeffrey Epstein told author Michael Wolf that his ex that his ex friend preached President Donald Trump knew about the girls. Epstein in 2011 In a 2011 email to a now convicted procure. How do you say her name? Ghis Maxwell. I want you to realize that the dog that hasn't barked is Trump. I'm tired this morning, guys. Sorry. Epstein told Maxwell that a victim of his spent hours at my house with Trump. The email says. So this is saying that they have email proof. I'm looking for an actual thing of the email, but if we do have actual email evidence that says that, you know, Epstein is insinuating that Trump knew about it. Does this change things? Is this kind of too little, too late?

[Tom Bilyeu]

Well, here's the really bad news. Don't we already know he knew about the girls? Because there was like some beef where he said, like, you've got to stop taking the girls out of this place. He distanced himself from him. He kicked him out of Mar a Lago. I think the headline level was he kicked him out because he didn't like the way that he was treating women, that was my understanding. But as a psa, I heard with my own ears, Trump say, you grab them in the hoo ha. Yes. So, boys and girls, Trump does not have a line with women that I'm comfortable with. So I'm gonna guess that no one is gonna like what they find. Like, if you could have godlike powers and just read every thought and know every, like, true thing, you're not gonna be like, oh, he's such a good guy. You're gonna be skeeved in the extreme. Now, maybe you're not as skeeved out as you are by Epstein, who really seems monstrous, but. And Trump, just from where I'm sitting, just has a bad track record with that. Like, bro, you can't say, grab him in the hoo ha. You can't. Like, that's crazy. Not only can you not say it, I'm gonna guess he said it because he actually did it. And then to make it even worse, you want to know the really, really, really bad part? I bet he thought it was a turn on for them. And that is just an unforgivable misunderstanding of women. So not only is it sexual assault, it's just horrific on every conceivable level. So, yeah, I don't. There's no, like, coming clean for him. There's no, like, exoneration in that way. Now he's gonna say yes. I knew that he had some impropriety with the women. I had no idea how bad it was, and I still wanted him to get away. So this isn't gonna be the smoking gun that takes him down, um, because we got over the grab and the hoo ha. So the only thing is he's gotta release the fucking files, man. Gotta release the files.

[Mason]

He's in em.

[Tom Bilyeu]

At least the files.

[Mason]

He's in em.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Obviously, Obviously. Obviously.

[Mason]

We'll keep monitoring it. When new stuff has rolls out, we'll get to it. But literally we just learned that right now. Thanks to the chat and Mason for pulling that up. We'll keep figuring it out.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Yeah, a unbalanced budget steals from everybody and is a reverse Robin Hood and gives to the rich. It's like, well, we know we can't do that. So anybody morally, I just. That that's my belief. Obviously. Mamdani, the socialists and communists completely disagree. And I think it is legitimately evil or a level of stupidity that cannot be forgiven.

[Mason]

So, I mean, technically, Trump doesn't agree because the big beautiful bill added to the deficit too.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Yes. So where do you see, if you've ever heard me champion the Big Beautiful Bill, let me know.

[Mason]

It's just that you threw a sh.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Mom.

[Mason]

Dani, who doesn't have nearly as much control over the federal budget as somebody who actively is pushing above that.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Okay? So one thing I think you and I collide on all the time is directionality. So the directionality of Mamdani shows me that the idea of socialism and communism is gaining steam. And there. There really are three books. If people read those three books, they. They are either murderously evil in their own way, or they'll walk away going, oh, shit. Okay, well, though, that. Those options are completely off the table. And that would be the Gulag Archipelago. Usually I'll say the Rise and Fall third, right? But for this, I'll say tombstone. Or you can read the alternative mao, the Unknown Story, and then the Red Famine. If you read any three of those books, you'll walk away going, oh, got it. Like this kills at a level that makes Hitler look like the Junior Death Squad. Like, it is insane how many people. Ma, Lenin, Stalin, those guys, they knew how to kill. Like, bro, you don't. Gas chambers like that is some old school barbaric. Just starve people to death. You know how much faster you can kill people if you starve them? Cyclone B. Like what? Like, you got to have a supply chain. You got to order that. All you have to do to starve tens of millions of people. You go in and you're like, who are the best farmers here? Oh, it's those seven. Yeah, the ones with like, the bigger plow and the extra horse. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Fuck those kids, right? Yeah, yeah, yeah. Greedy. I'm just going to shoot them. Bang, bang, bang. Seven people dead. Everyone starves because skills have utility. And the guy that knows how to get the extra plow, the guy that farms better than you and therefore has some extra cows and extra horses. What he's saying is, I know how to do things you don't know how to do. And so if you kill me, that knowledge goes with me. And now you starve. And I bet people think I'm kidding and I'm not. Read the books and you'll be like, holy shit. It is distressingly easy to kill a lot of people. So anyway, when I see Mamdani, I'm like, oh, here's a guy who. This is how I feel about Nick Fuentes. I was on the fence about Nick Fuentes. I didn't fucking know. I paid attention to him. Sounded racist as shit. But, like, I used to think Jordan Peterson was a misogynist. And I just hadn't looked at him. So I was like, I look, I haven't looked at the kid. Probably racist, but like, I haven't done a deep dive. And then he said, I love me some December 18th because big fan of Stalin and that's his birthday. I was like, peace, I'm out. Like, what do you do with that? If. If somebody wants to date my sister and they roll in and they're like, yo, Ted Bundy, big fan, big fan. I'm like, get the out. No more words. Like, we're done. You don't get to date my sister. So I don't understand how people aren't like, ooh, Mom. Donnie is saying he actually believes the things that those guys believed that ended up killing all those fucking people. You, you have to read the books. When you read them, you're like, there's a story in red. Red Famine is the only book that I ever realized, oh, I can't read this at night. Remember when I go to bed, I put in headphones and I'm reading at all times. So if people are wondering how I read so much, that's how. I do not absorb anything while I'm asleep. So please don't think that I do. But in the 10 or 15 minutes while I'm falling asleep and then the call it 15 or 20 minutes after I wake up, like, that's a big chunk of my reading. And I had to stop reading that book at night because it was keeping me awake. Because one night I woke up at like 2 in the morning and usually the book kicks in and it lulls me back to sleep. That one kicked in and it was a story of a woman who was eating her own seven year old daughter. And I was like, yep, I'm out. So that'll keep you awake. So that's what happens when you seize the means of production. That's what happens when you say rich people are just evil. Instead of going, hmm, they know how to do something I don't know how to do. Which, by the way, 70% of all billionaires are self made. So these are people, they know how to do something you don't know how to do. And you would be very wise to go, what is that thing? Because I would like to learn that skill. Now luck and timing are gonna play a part of it. So maybe adopting that skill does not ever make you a billionaire, but can it make you a couple hundred grand? Probably. So, yeah, that would be why I'm gonna Keep beating that drum. And why those arguments will never be persuasive to me because he is on that path. And I know that path only ends in one place. It the physics of life tell you that that can only end in one place. Because skills have utility.

[Mason]

Brutus. Lugo. Right on time, Tom.

[Tom Bilyeu]

I guess it was in all caps.

[Mason]

Tom, you want us to make these wild assumptions about the direction Mamdani is going when he hasn't done anything yet.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Do I? Do I want us to make these wild assumptions? So here. Here's a base assumption I have. When somebody tells you who they are, you can believe them. Now, if Brutus is like, bro, just because somebody tells you that they are a socialist, just because somebody quotes the Communist Manifesto doesn't mean that they're a socialist. Doesn't mean that they believe in communism. Okay? But that's not the world I live in. There was a young man by the name of Yeezy. And one night before he went to bed, he said, I'm gonna go DEFCON 3. DEFCON 3. Can't remember DEFCON 3. I think on the Jews. He went, ham on the Jews. So that was like, okay. Like you could take him at his word. He was mad. He was going to do something about it. He was going to talk about it. And didn't go well for him, but he certainly did the thing. People tend to tell you what they do or what they're going to do that really does reveal something about who they are.

[Mason]

And now he's crying in the arms of rabbis.

[Tom Bilyeu]

I know. And look, maybe he really has turned around. And Lord knows that I'm open to that redemption arc. But it's like, unless Mom, Donnie is like, listen, these are why I said all those things. I now reject all of that. No free buses for you. Not because I can't get it passed with hokum, but because it's a terrible fucking idea. Because I have spent the time. What was the phrase? I educated myself. I educated myself how the economy actually works. I read the three books. Thank you to Tom Bilyeu for recommending three books. I read them and now I realize, oh, yeah, this is murderous ideology. And I reject it wholeheartedly. So. But if Brutus has a different vibe,

[Mason]

that give us a part 2 to the super chat.

[Tom Bilyeu]

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[Mason]

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[Mason]

So Tommy want us to make these wild assumptions about the direction Mohammedani is going when he hasn't done anything yet. But we have Trump doing actual communism and from you we don't get nearly the same energy.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Rightly so.

[Mason]

And then the things that he's doing now are just not stupid. They're just dumb, horrible.

[Tom Bilyeu]

But they're not on the same path. He's on a different dumb and bad path, but he is guided largely by profit. This is why I'm saying I'm a little I am now having to parse through what do I think about people trying to run the government like a business. And that's where I'm like my knee jerk reaction is that it's good but I have unease and something tells me that I'm going to need to spend time with why I don't just go it's an unmitigated good.

[Mason]

Yeah.

[Tom Bilyeu]

So there's something there that going to need to figure out. But let's talk about this is the same conversation I was having with destiny where people need to understand amplitude of like a problem. So we need to bang the table loudly and proudly that Trump's big beautiful bill is a disaster and that he is perfectly willing to run a deficit. And that is really problematic. Now at the same time we need to be intellectually honest and say Trump is also trying to make money for the US Government. Now you may not like the tariffs, understood. But they've generated hundreds of billions of dollars. So now you might say but they're raising prices. Yeah, they probably are. The inevitability that that will have some inflation like effect. It is not the same. People need to stop conflating inflation with prices going up. But anyway it will have an inflation like effect because it will inevitably impact some prices. But the great news about tariffs is they are typically shared to some degree between the exporter and the importer. So it is a tax that you pay some percentage of. Is it 50%, is it 80%? Don't know. That is for economists to tell you. But it is traditionally shared in some meaningful amount which we have seen so far to be true. Okay, so you've got Trump who is buying up equity in companies. Terrible fucking idea. Straight out of China's playbook. I did a whole deep dive about it so people think I'm being quiet about it. They're just not watching enough content. Hey everybody, make sure that you're subscribed. So that is really stupid and I really hate it. And that will really cause problems. And I have popped off about it a dozen times. But it isn't going to, in my estimation, it isn't going to end up being murderous. It's going to be terrible for the economy. We should absolutely not do it. But it is not going to lead to Trump shooting people for dissent. Nothing in the way that Trump is behaving makes me think that he's going to go into a room, be like, get on board with this or when I walk out, I'm going to shoot you. So technically he won't do the shooting. It'll be a guy.

[Mason]

And what about if he puts people in jail? He has suggested that all of that

[Tom Bilyeu]

stuff that he does is God awful. All the lawfare. If only we had an honorable man that. And listen, maybe I need to look more closely at him. But the person to me that played this chef's kiss is Nelson Mandela. How could we don't deserve Nelson Mandela. At least as my read of the situation goes, locked in prison for 28 years, comes out and is like, no, we're not seeking retribution. We're gonna have to do truth and reconciliation. But this is not about retribution. He ends up putting white people on a security detail. Everyone's freaking out because they're like, they're gonna get you killed. But like all of that, like extension of grace and forgiveness and all that is exactly what you have to do. Trump is constitutionally incapable of doing that. That is a terrible fucking thing. So, uh huh, yeah, to, to understand me you have to understand like where do I think this goes? Like play this person's personality out all the way. And if you play Trump's personality out all the way, he does not go to Hitler. In my estimation, like again, read about Hitler.

[Mason]

What's the worst case scenario then? If we played out Trump leans into the communism.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Every press, Trump is leaning into communism. Trump is leaning into state controlled, more fascisty Hitlerian behaviors. So you.

[Mason]

You did.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Okay, kids, I swear to God, I'm not going to say another word until you tell me back what I just fucking said.

[Mason]

He's going to lean into fascism. Hitlerian. Yes.

[Tom Bilyeu]

But you. So, yes, Keep going. What was the word that I've used over and over?

[Mason]

Profit.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Amplitude, motherfuckers.

[Mason]

Amplitude.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Like how he's not going to become Hitler. Let me tell you. Here's. Here's a real thing that Hitler did. He would walk into a room, hey, Drew, I don't like the things you're saying. Are you on board? No.

[Mason]

Cool.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Bye. Thanks. Best of luck on everything. Hitler walks out the room, and it's like, why? Why'd the bodyguard stay? And then the bodyguard shoots you in the fucking face. And I'm saying, Trump's never going to do that.

[Mason]

Yeah.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Never, ever, ever. If I end up being wrong, I'll be the first to admit it. Trump's never going to do that. It is not in his personality, in my opinion. So what I'm saying is you. I believe that. Mom, Donnie is either malevolent or ignorant. Either way, I don't care. And he actually believes you can freeze rent and make things better.

[Mason]

And you think he's going to get to that point.

[Tom Bilyeu]

He actually thinks that you can do less cops. He actually thinks that you can close Rikers Island. Like, he actually believes those things. They are so catastrophic that the amplitude of the problem is so much bigger. Okay, are we. This is not me saying, guys, what are you doing? Trump's amazing. Just fucking do everything he said. No, but you've got a guy over here doing sort of middling level stupid shit. And then you have a guy over here that. I'm like, ooh, the path that you're on. And he's not in office yet. I'm aware of that. But the path that you're on is murderous. It's murderous by nature. Now, we can all say Tom is wrong about that, but we can't say Tom is confused or Tom is inconsistent. I keep saying the same things over and over and over. Trump has authoritarian tendencies. Would you like to make a super compilation of all the fucking times I have said that Trump has authoritarian. Authoritarian tendencies. We get a dozen examples at least, Right? So I've been banging that drum forever, so if you want to know what path he's on, he is on the path of China. Now, people are going to say, but, Tom, China is communist. No, China is the Communist Party in name. But they used, guess what, capitalism to get out of poverty. And so what they have done is put the state inside of capitalism and said, if you ever get too out of pocket, I'm going to make you disappear. Okay.

[Mason]

And you think Trump is going to end up being that?

[Tom Bilyeu]

I think Trump. Worst case scenario, Trump is directionally in that place. If you said, hey, Trump locked up a big CEO because he said some shit that Trump didn't like, I'd be like, yeah, I fucking buy that. You don't have to push me hard to make me go, uh huh. That's the kind of thing that I could see Trump doing. That's terrible. That's really bad. We don't want that. No. Boo. Impeach, get him out of office. Whatever you need. That is horrific. Trump should absolutely not marry the state to corporations. That's terrible. Immediately stop. Don't do it. Bang drums.

[Mason]

I feel like I got this side now. The worst case with Trump, okay, he's going to. He'll lock people up unwillfully. He'll turn into China, he'll reeducate some CEOs who dissent. But he's not gonna walk into a room and kill people. He's not gonna do mass genocides. He's not gonna set up gas chambers.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Correct.

[Mason]

Mamdani, you're saying because of the policies that they want, so no cops, open Rikers island, free buses, all these things, once he plays those things out and they don't work, there's going to be a mob of people who dissent against him and then he's gonna then be forced to kill people or get eaten alive. And that's why you think Mamdani's gonna.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Way too early. Mamdani is not going to kill people. There's no way. And if people think I'm saying he is path of an ideology that by its nature becomes that murderous. That's why I'm saying you want to ask me.

[Mason]

Oh, the ideology. So the no one in free prison is going to kill people. Not Mamdani himself, but he's going to usher that.

[Tom Bilyeu]

There's also that.

[Mason]

But I'm trying to understand the murderous part.

[Tom Bilyeu]

So here, here is my take on Mamdani. You once asked me directly about this and so we have it on record from a while ago, I've called Mamdani a villain. And you said like, is he like the super villain? The end all villain, Something like that. And I said no, the ideology is socialism, communism. That's your real problem. What I'm saying is Mamdani is the new face of that ideology. Gaining in popularity because I have an immunological response that is so extreme to that. I'm always going to freak out when I hear things about that. The. Right. When it goes, like, complete authoritarian. It's so visible. It's so obvious. Like, here's the question people need to ask. Mao and Stalin killed way more people than Hitler. I mean, way more, man. Way more. But nobody thinks of them as murderers. But everyone thinks of Hitler as being, like, the worst thing ever. Now, Hitler is God awful. I mean, just unbearably evil and terrible. But the scale and the efficacy of his system when it comes to killing is chump change.

[Mason]

Can.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Is it Stalin? Ooh, buddy.

[Mason]

Okay. Is it like.

[Tom Bilyeu]

But it's. Hold on. Because the thing. I want to make sure everybody's hearing me. The reason I freak out is how have they hidden in plain sight?

[Mason]

How Stalin him out?

[Tom Bilyeu]

Yes. How the fuck is that happening Just

[Mason]

as bad as Hitler?

[Tom Bilyeu]

Because they say things that sound nice. Hitler yells into a microphone. He sounds like a sociopath. He signals I'm a sociopath. When Trump is bombing drone striking boats, and they're like, oh, we got another one, bitches. Everyone's like, the fuck is that? That is crazy.

[Grainger Advertiser]

Yay.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Super visible. Mom Donnie's like, I'm gonna make shit free. What do you mean? What the problem is, bro? I love everybody. I'm gonna make the buses free. They're gonna be fast. I'm gonna freeze rent. Come on, guys. This is all wonderful. And what I hear is, that's what fucking Mao said. So I'm just like, kids Mao, hidden, plain sight. Just murdering people left, right and center. I'm not saying, Mom Donnie's gonna murder. In fact, I don't even have that. I don't think Mom Danny's gonna murder at all. Now, I. If he does, I will end up being like, whoa, I did not see that coming. Now I will say, yeah, ideology pretty much takes you down that path. But, no, I don't think that about Mom. D. There's too many checks and balances. It's not where we're at right now. But I'm saying, play it on out long enough, swap in a couple people. Generation down the road.

[Mason]

Yeah, so I'm getting like, Mamdani is the. At the beginning of the horror flick, Mamdani is a little kid that opens up the Ouija board and think he's just playing. And it's gonna bring up this whole. You know what I mean? Like, it's so. It's not him that's doing it but he's the ushering this like, ideology that has a slippery slope that leads to hundreds of millions of people dying. Is that a better.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Like you're getting closer? It's probably more like you're on a quest in a video game. And they say, all right, you need to first get the the sword of drawing in order to call the demon forward. And it's like, go talk to Mom Donnie and he'll give you the sword of drawing. So he's like just a part of all of this. I don't want to over like state what he is. He. We called Momdani 4th Trump is a symptom. He's not the cause. Mamdani is a symptom. He's not the cause. Mom Donnie is not the cause. Nobody should go after Mom Donnie. Nobody should be wanting ill on him or anything like that. Mom Donnie should be treated with all the courtesy and respect that one would treat somebody, anybody. Your side or somebody else's side. You should want to debate the ideas. If you can't win through argumentation, then shut the fuck up and sit down. No one should visit. Like, if Mom Donnie can make New York a better place, then I'll clap. I just want New York to be a better place. I have a belief that the things he's going to do will be just absolutely God awful. And I believe that you can just walk people through the cause and effect and it'll be very simple. But like, I'm perfectly willing if he's winning. Yeah, this is dope. Yay. I have a North Star. I have theories about what will take me there, but I don't know that they're correct. So anyway, again, if I met Mom Donnie, if I interviewed Mom Donnie, I would be courteous, I would be receptive. I would want to understand before I tried to, you know, break the arguments apart. But then I would go after the arguments to the best of my terrible debating abilities. So that's how I see this. So yeah, if people think in my head, I'm thinking, mom Donnie must be stopped at all costs. I am not at all. So anyway, I don't mean to step

[Mason]

on you, Mason, but I see a couple of comments popping up that I think we should talk about. So this science spark, said Tom, with respect, it's not really consistent to judge the Dems by their worst case potential and MAGA by their best case intentions. It's a clear double standard.

[Tom Bilyeu]

It's not. So here's the thing I really want people to understand. So binary thinking is Very useful. It will help you make decisions, but it is also very detached from reality. And if you don't take amplitude into account, you are going to be eternally confused by the world. So people should be very concerned about quick break but don't go anywhere. There's more to come after this short break from our sponsors.

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[Tom Bilyeu]

All right, thanks for sticking with us. Let's jump right back in where we're headed right now regardless of who's in power. But when the person is in power you want to look at like how far are they likely to go? You're going to make your best assumption about that. But the amplitude of the thing matters a lot.

[Mason]

So in your mind the amplitude of Mamdani is he just young guy, just got mayor of New York. Let's say he tricks a couple people for the next four years, then he becomes governor of New York, then he does the same policies, tricks a couple more people, then he can become president. And that's why it's a slippery slope that that ideology can grow because of the cultural energy has and if he's

[Tom Bilyeu]

able to keep it. The thing that I am really focused on is how much energy is going into the dsa, is going into socialism, is going into communism, is going against capitalism like all the things at work. But this won't be a satisfying answer. So I want to get back to the direct thing that they saying so that I'm being unjustly kind and unfairly heavy handed to one side. Okay, so first of all to acknowledge my biases, I as an individual person believe that humans should be far more afraid of socialism and communism than they should be of state run capitalism. Now I've given all my reasons for that, but I forgive anybody that's like well I disagree. I think state run capitalism is far more terrifying. Okay, well we can debate the merits of that but that will certainly explain why it seems like I go way harder on one side than on the other. Because I'm more afraid of one side I believe historically justly so, but I am far more afraid of that There is a reason that China's done really fucking well for the last 40 years. And it isn't communism, because that's not the game they've been playing. The game they've been playing is state sponsored capitalism. State sponsored capitalism is terrifyingly effective in the short run. So it's like I am far less afraid of that, though. I am afraid of that. So I think that you have a problem of state run surveillance on the left and the right. I'm going to hate it from both of them in equal measure. But, yeah, so that, that is my. I have my reasons. I'm not blind to it. But if anybody detects that I have a far bigger reaction to one side than the other, that would be why. I think it's completely justified, but that would be why. And then if you take them as individuals, it's interesting. If you take them as individuals, I'm probably far more worried about Trump than I am Mamdani. I think Mamdani is too young and doesn't have the connections to pull this off, but he sits on top of something that scares me far more. So what scares me right now is the rejection of capitalism, the embrace of socialism, some of the things. Like if you guys haven't watched the DSA talk directly, they say things like, we need to abolish the family. That's so foundational and so terrifying. Okay, so flip it. And the right says we need to be. Let's be very uncharitable. We need to be Christian nationalists. Okay, that's terrible. But that doesn't scare me, like, undermining the family. So now, hey, I need someone to balance me out cosmically. And maybe that's Brutus Lugo. And maybe Brutus Lugo is like, I'm way more terrified of Christian nationalism than I am of abolishing the family. Okay, great. And so now the world has different voices that they can listen to, which is exactly what I think should happen. Which is why you don't hear me calling for Mamdani to be censored. You don't hear me calling for Nick Fuentes to be censored. Like, nope. I think all these people should be able to say their ideas. I think they're terrible. But I welcome that I have to fight them in the sphere of public opinion. So, yep, perfectly satisfied with that.

[Mason]

And to that point, I will concede that in the sense that in 2017, I'm sorry, when Obama won in 2008, there was a Conservative Party, there was a Republicans, and then there was a crazy Tea Party. And that crazy Tea Party was just this fringe people of racist who were mean and bigoted and all the bad things. And as we played that out, the Tea Party gained more esteem. The classic Republicans, the Grand Old Party got pushed out, then it became the conservatives versus the Tea Party versus MAGA. MAGA ate up the Tea Party, then it became conservatives versus MAGA. And now even in the Republican Party it's 80% MAGA, 20% traditional conservatives. There's no more Mitt Romneys, there's no more John McCain. So I will at least give you that directionally the DSA is the only thing on the left that has any energy whatsoever. And the classic Democrats, the Chuck Schumer's, the Hillary Clintons, they're already getting pushed out by some of the new further left people. So I can at least give you that, that there is this wave of people that can radically shift the sides of the Democrat of the Democratic parties, as in the Republicans and the Democrats, because we have seen it on the right or play out over the last 20 years. So I can at least see that valid as like a fear on the left happening.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Yeah. So going back to Mamdani as an individual versus Trump as an individual, Trump has A, a lot of money and B, an insane amount of influence. He's so plugged in and he spent whatever 50 years building a network. So in terms of like who's going to be more effective now talking amplitude, Trump is going to be way more effective than Mandani. So in terms of which of the individuals I think could end up wreaking more havoc in the next 10 years, clearly Trump. Clearly Trump. But if you want to know the ideology, this scares me a lot more from an amplitude to go very, very wrong perspective. I've made that point over and over. We got two super chats. So why is it that you think Mamdani will lead us to Mao and Stalin type socialism and not Nordic country style socialism like he's actually proposing? Hold on, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait. The Nordic countries are not socialist. And so anybody who thinks they are, please go research them. They are not socialist, they have huge social programs, but it's all democratically voted in. It's all socialism is. We are going to take over industries, do everything top down. The workers own the means of production essentially. It's a very different ball game than what they're doing in the Nordic countries, which is all private markets all the time, but just everyone is taxed to death. And the thing that I don't think people realize about the Nordic countries is that the middle class is too axed, low class taxed. Everybody gets taxed in America. The top 50% of earners pay tax like 90% of the taxes, maybe more. It might be 97%. I mean, it's like really insane. So it's a very different ball game. A very different ball game. But they are not socialist, which is why they don't call themselves socialist. Gotcha. Chad is saying that that's what Mom Donnie is proposing is democratic. No, you need. It's. He is a part of the democratic socialists of America. They are. God, they have some other name, social democracy or something like that. It's very different. People need to start watching the DSA talk directly. Watch the DSA talk directly if you're not freaked out. Right. I, I was clutching my pearls, like in the extreme. I could. They said the words, we need to abolish the family. What kids. We need to abolish the family. Do people not hear that? That, that is, hey, let's take that pillar that all of society stands on. Let's break that. And you do that because you want total control of the way that people think. That is so insane. So anyway, there are certain things that just are absolutely disqualifying and that would be one of them. And I heard it directly from their own mouths. So they put it on the Internet. They're not like shy about this shit. So you can go watch it. Go watch it.

[Mason]

The DDSA is what? Project 2025 is on the right. Project 25 is this ominous. Like we're going to take everything away and make everybody Christian nationalists. And it's the worst case right leaning manifesto like issue.

[Tom Bilyeu]

At this point though, I think if you read Project 2025 and you hate it, that's what's happening. Whatever Trump tells you, that's what's happening.

[Mason]

That's what's happening. So that's the whole DSA argument of he's not really dsa, he just likes when they vote for him.

[Tom Bilyeu]

No, no, no. He admits he's a part of the dsa. Like there. No one's arguing that. Right.

[Mason]

I haven't seen that.

[Tom Bilyeu]

But he calls himself a democratic socialist. He like this. He's not hiding. He says who he is and I just don't think people are believing him, which is crazy. Oh, hold on. Our tuition people have done it before in history. He's saying that abolishing the family is impossible. No, it's not so.

[Mason]

And also, if you like, if you really think about it what's abolishing your family, making marriage not cool, saying it's okay not to have kids. Now you have a whole generation that's not married and don't have kids. What is that? Not a family.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Kids are the responsibility of the state. Hey, California, I'm looking at you. If the school, for instance, can work with the kid to do something against the parents wish you are undermining the family. So yeah, it is excruciatingly dangerous. What's your response to John Doe saying families do need to be abolished, Most of them are dysfunctional and the state is probably a more caring parent. Oh my God, she got triggered. Listen, there are certainly individual cases where you would say, okay, this, this is bad. And by the way, I'm every theory is autobiographical. So I am sorry if you grew up in a way where you did not get something positive from a family. There's nothing I hate more than how much our childhood matters. And childhood is a roll of the dice, man. So you do not do anything to deserve a bad childhood. But it sounds like perhaps you had one so truly with the most empathy in the world. I am very sad to hear that. But nonetheless, the state. Look at what happened. I think it was in Romania where during the war they took a bunch of kids from their family and they raised them in these large orphanages which were supposed to be better for the kids. And it just ended up fucking absolutely decimating an entire generation. Unfortunately, Australia has some blood on their hands. America has some blood on their hands where they took kids away from the natives and tried to Australianize them or Americanize them. Like it's just God awful what ends up happening.

[Mason]

So I got the video of the DSA claiming Mamdani. He has distanced himself, but they're claiming him. This is what I found also.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Didn't somebody just said that his chief of staff is a DSA member? No, I don't have that verified.

[Mason]

But yeah, I don't have that verified.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Play your clip. Sees state power that we can be in because we're like this, right?

[Mason]

DSA has regular meetings with him, let alone his team.

[Tom Bilyeu]

His policy director. He's my friend.

[Mason]

I've been working with his campaign manager for well over a year.

[Tom Bilyeu]

People come to DSA by way of zoron. That's awesome. But then we can help them become more radical. Is the Zoron is his first step. And then all of a sudden you're doing all kinds of awesome organizing.

[Mason]

But to be fair, he has distanced himself during the campaign from the dsa, but they're claiming him. So this is why his. He can't beat those allegations.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Yeah, this is like Trump saying, oh, Project 2025. What is it again?

[Mason]

Like, meanwhile, he just. His checklist is scratching off every. Yeah, yeah, all right, we got to talk about this, because this hit Twitter like a boulder over the weekend. Trump proposed 50 year mortgages, comparing himself to President Roosevelt, who ushered in the 30 year mortgage.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Bro. Like, first of all, Roosevelt, I'm reading a book right now called 1929 about the crash. I have a feeling I haven't finished it yet, so I could be totally wrong, but from things that I've heard, things that I've read and then this new book, I have a feeling that Roosevelt is a villain. So, yeah, we'll see. We'll see. I'll reserve my final judgment. So anyway, any president tying themselves to, like, more socialized, not socialism, but socialized stuff. Ack ack. Especially right now, like, God damn. But anyway, I get the 50 year mortgage. I understand, like, what he's trying to do because technically, it's like you can pay off, you can pay it off early, but by dragging it out to 50 years, you keep the interest rate lower. So for somebody that's like, oh, listen, I could afford a 30 year mortgage, but I'm gonna get into this 50, keep my rate low, gives me more flexibility, and then I'll pay it off in an accelerated rate as my lifestyle allows for it. It's not a terrible idea in that way. It is a sign of sickness. That's what makes me sad, is like, no, no, no. This is like insulin injections. So, okay, if somebody's a type 2 diabetic, I'm glad insulin exists because I don't believe that person deserves to die or just to be left to rot. But at the same time, it is entirely controllable through their diet. Not mostly controllable. It is entirely controllable through their diet. So I would want to see us solve that problem rather than inject people with insulin. And just as a speedrun, make more houses, make more houses. Put some limits on corporations buying them up. If you even want to block foreign people from coming in and buying up houses, yay. No problem. There was also a very distressing graph that I saw yesterday that was like, in the last 10 years or something, the number of immigrants that have been able to secure federal loans. And I don't know if it was undocumented immigrants, I'll reserve and say no, just immigrants. But, like, the number of loans Going to immigrants is like literally skyrocketing. And it went from like 1 1/2% to 6%.

[Mason]

No way a legal alien can secure a mortgage.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Well, you've seen those. They can and do.

[Mason]

But you know how much paperwork that is.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Yeah, I know.

[Mason]

You know how grueling it was. I had to do background checks. Somebody gave me a graduation gift. I had to write letters. No way. Yeah, I'm, I'm, I'm calling BS on that. Yeah, that's crazy.

[Tom Bilyeu]

There was a video that went around like a month ago that was like this couple, they were undocumented, so they could have been asylum seekers. This is where it gets messy. If you consider an asylum seeker just a normal immigrant, okay, then it's going to look very different on paper. But if somebody who came across the border illegally but then goes, I'm here for asylum, they suddenly magically, they're now in a totally different camp. And given that we changed the definition of asylum to anybody that is fleeing a worse economic condition. And it's basically everybody. So it becomes, this is a big part of the government shutdown was like, they're not illegals. And it's like, well, if they came here illegally and then just said, but it's worse off back home, and then you magically made them legal, like, do we really care? Admittedly, I think the right is beating that drum unnecessarily where it's like they're always just saying illegals, illegals, illegals. And I know they don't actually always mean illegals. And so anyway, that one feels sort of as bad faith as everybody pretending. No, what do you mean? Like, there's no problem. These are just foreign born Americans. It's like, all right, easy, chief. We've got to be a little bit more discerning than that. So anyway, a few things you could clear up. Housing prices would start coming down. The problem is, remember, gain and retain. Why are housing prices so high? Because homeowners don't want their home values to go down. And I get it, I get it. But nonetheless, that is the problem. And so they go bang on the door of their congressman. They're like, how dare you don't like let that new house or apartment complex or whatever be built in my neighborhood. Here's what I would say. Build all that shit and then police the living fuck out of it. Now if you do that, you're not gonna have to worry about crime and all of that because they are going to get hammered down and then you can get like, all the lovely. It's more people for sure. And I get. Not everybody's gonna like that, but if it's safe, I'm here for it.

[Mason]

I went down a rabbit hole and stumbled across Adam Livingston, who had a very spicy take about the 50 year mortgage.

[Tom Bilyeu]

You like Spice nuclear bitcoin warhead while the rest of your neighbors are getting fleeced by 30 year fiat contracts and safe boomer math. That should be a crime. I made two posts on X that went extremely viral. Literally over 2 million views total talking about the new 50 year mortgage. Okay, Now, I don't advocate for societal debt slavery. All I'm saying is that if they ex, you can ride the wave of societal collapse. I'm seeing every single geriatric who loves cnb. Okay? I have an interview coming out with Robert Breedlove in the very near future. I love Robert Be love. He's a good person. We are friendly. I wouldn't expect him to call me if he was locked in a Thai prison, but we are friendly. I hate the way that he looks at societal collapse. He would not use those words, but I will. Where it's like, well, Tom, what's the problem? There's. There's a life raft. I know the water's 12 degrees, but yes, the vast majority of people on the boat are going to drown. They'll freeze to death probably before they drown. But anyway, they're all going to die. But anybody wants in the life raft can jump in. And I'm like, yeah, but there's like this weird combo on the life raft and the vast majority of people just aren't going to be able to do that combo. Not while they're freezing to death anyway. And they're just perfectly fine because they're in the life raft. And I'm just like, I really hate that. So look, maybe I'm just a chump. That really is entirely possible. And I got a weird fucking roll of the dice and I just cannot just ride off into the sunset while the titan gets somewhere where no mosquitoes at. I can't do it. My poor wife. So that is both true and grotesque. And so it's like, all right, listen, as a psa, boys and girls, get a investing strategy. No, nobody knows what's going to happen, least of all me. So anybody that gives you an answer like, just go buy a bunch of bitcoin, who the fuck knows? But do the research. Figure out cause and effect. Get a thesis that you're willing to bet against. I'll point you, I did this in the Episode that just released. Yeah, I think it was the one that came out on Monday. A deep dive where I cover sort of the three all weather strategy people. You can do a Buffett, like, fundamentals approach. You can do a Ray Dalio all weather strategy, or you can do a Lynn Alden sort of modified all weather strategy. Um, I think all three of those are great. Learn about them. Decide for yourself what you want to do. Please do something. But can we all collectively agree that it's gross, that we just go, well, as long as I'm safe? I just really don't like that. Um, so. But I don't have. I don't have a great answer. I don't know how to simplify these topics enough to make sure that we save everybody. It's why I bang the drum. You. You. You have to stop the Titanic from sinking. Period. That is the thing I come back to every time. There. There are enough life rafts for everybody. And it's sort of a weak analogy, but it's close that, yes, there's enough life rafts for everybody, but there is a weird fucking code. It's like a puzzle in a video game. They can be solved, but, like, sometimes they're just confusing. And you're so busy and you're fucking freezing to death. And so your brain is, like, sort of offline. And the freezing to death in this example is you're already having a hard time making ends meet. You're trying to raise kids, you're fucking working a job that you hate, AI coming for everything you hold dear, and you're just, like, panicking. And so. And also, I hate to say it out loud, intellect matters. And so some people just did not get a good roll of the dice there. And so they're on the boat and they can't figure out the fucking puzzle to get into the life raft. And so if. When I get in the life raft with you and you're sipping cognac and smoking a cigar, you will forgive me if I want to headbutt the bridge of your nose. So that's only emotion. It's only emotion. But anyway, we need to open the door and say, hey, motherfucker in the boat, plug the goddamn hole. And the hole is deficit spending. So we're back to why I get angry at the Big beautiful Bill. I really want to call it the BBC. True. I may have, like, sold myself on it. The Big beautiful catastrophe. BBC for short. Yeah. So that's horrible. The DSA is horrible. All of them just want to spend money. Modern Monetary theory. Can we play my favorite clip? Can we keep that on hand? It's been a while. I've really been sober, and I've not asked this to be played in, like, four months. I need to play it one more time. I want to remind everybody the clip that we are about to watch is from one of Biden's senior economic advisors explaining modern monetary theory. It. It is. This is gallows humor. I want to be very clear. It. There he is. This is one. Okay, hold on. I need. I need to pause. I need it from the very beginning. I need the volume all the way up. This is my indulgent moment. I need to. Oh, I'm going to stare into the abyss for a minute. Okay, here it comes. This is Biden's senior economic advisor explaining modern monetary theory. If you want to understand why you are where you are, this video sums it up. Here we go. The US Government can't go bankrupt because

[Grainger Advertiser]

we can print our own money.

[Tom Bilyeu]

It obviously begs the question, why exactly are we borrowing in a currency that we print ourselves? I'm waiting for someone to stand up and say, why do we borrow our own currency in the first place? Like you said, they print the dollar. So why does the government even borrow. Well, the. So the. I mean, again, some of this stuff gets. Some of the language that the. Mm. Some of the language and concepts are just confusing. I mean, the government definitely prints money and it definitely lends that money, which is why the government definitely prints money and then it lends that money by. By selling bonds.

[Mason]

They.

[Tom Bilyeu]

They. He doesn't know. They. Yeah, they. No, no, no, stop. They sell bonds. Yeah, they sell bonds. Right. Since they sell bonds and people buy them the money. Yeah. So a lot of times. A lot of times, at least to my year with. With mmt, the. The language and the concepts can be kind of unnecessarily confusing, but there is no question that the government prints money and then it uses that money to. You're in a simulation. So this is the worst NPC dialogue. I don't. I don't get it. I don't know what they're talking about. He literally doesn't get it. This is so wild. This video radicalized me when I watched this. I was like, oh, wait, what? This is so wild. This is so wild. But he's a senior economic advisor.

[Mason]

What the. Somebody said this is an SNL skit. No, that was real. For a real documentary. That actually.

[Tom Bilyeu]

I cannot believe that was like, I started using that in so many of my deep dives. Finally I was like, I gotta stop using this. It. But, oh, my God, I can't believe this is real. I don't know. I'm actually sweating. I am legitimately perspirating right now because that video fills me with laughter, massive amounts of anxiety. I just cannot believe that that's real. I can't believe that's real. But that's real. That is real. Dude.

[Mason]

What? Like, how do. How does that happen, though? Because, like, I guess, yes, the economy is very complicated, but, like, shouldn't. Like, should. Isn't there one adult in the room? Shouldn't somebody be like, hey, guys.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Okay, okay. People want to know why I voted for Trump. That video. And Kamala Harris going, we're going to cap grocery prices. I was like. And do an unrealized gains tax. I was like, nope, I'm out. Like, it. No. You. That is somebody who's like, the Titanic is sinking. I would like to make this hole bigger. And I'm not letting anyone on the life raft. Fuck all of you. And so I was just like, we just can't. No hard pass. So, man, it is. Dude, listen. Every time I think I understand the economy, I listen to Scott Bessant and realize, oh, shit. Like, as the island of my knowledge grows, so grows the shore of my ignorance. So I realize, ooh, there's more and more things that I don't know. I would not have known how to break the back of the British pound. So. Oh, my God, Scott Adams. I don't know enough about him to know if I should be like, is he evil or is he amazing? I don't know. But admittedly, he comes across my feed from time to time, and yesterday, I should have saved it. It's one of those where I'm like, is this gonna stick to my ribs? He said, what do you. Who do you fear more? In fact. Yeah, yeah, go. It's worth reading. It's Scott Adams Thought Experiment. Scroll down. Let's see if we can find it really fast. It's all text. Was that it? No, it's like, he lists. Wait, wait, wait. You can't go this fast. It's.

[Mason]

I got you. I got you.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Do you know where it is?

[Mason]

No, I'm just scrolling through. He says, yesterday. So I was going to go through the last day.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Oh, well, it came across my feed yesterday. It doesn't mean that it was yesterday. Scott Adams Thought Experiment. You may want to add iq. Yeah, add IQ and see if it pops up. Here it is. Okay, let me read this. Scroll. Yep. All right. Scott Adams thought experiment. You walk into a room to compete in an IQ test. Which group scares you more? Room one, Victor Davis. Hansen. Ben Shapiro. Scott Besson. Jordan Peterson. Thomas Massie. Mike Benz. David Sachs. Elon Musk. Room 2, AOC Jasmine Crockett. Eric Swalwell. Adam Schiff. Jamie Raskin. Chuck Schumer. Bernie Sanders. Mayor Brandon Johnson. Be honest. Which room are you begging to leave? And I will tell you, if we're talking about the economy, any room that Scott Besson is in, I am begging to leave. Like, this guy is. He's like, s tier economically. Doesn't mean he's moral. I don't know. I'm not saying he's not. I'm just saying. I'm not saying he's a good person. I've not looked closely enough. I am saying this motherfucker understands the economy. And so going from Biden, who had. Who already was Weekend at Bernie's, and then his senior economic advisor literally did not understand the economy. And remember, I think economy is like, problem number one. And then now we get Besant, you're in a much better position. So there are people that understand the economy. They just weren't running the government for the last four years. So it is now. How do you get the average voter to understand the economy? That's the part that I'm like every time now, remember, I know that, like, compared to Scott Besson, I don't even understand what the fuck is going on. But the amount that I do understand is robust, and it is getting more robust by the day. And every time I go to explain the economy, like, as simply as I can, you trip over these moments where you're like, okay, I either oversimplify to the point of lying or I lose this person. It's just. It's all so interconnected that it is really tough. It's really tough. But modern monetary theory is, I won't say easy to understand, but it's easy enough to understand that that guy should absolutely retire immediately in shame. Because if you've ever accepted a dollar to talk to anybody about the economy, and that's your explanation of modern monetary theory, you can't. You can't do it, man.

[Mason]

All right.

[Tom Bilyeu]

It's been interesting to hear Besson clap back on people.

[Mason]

People coming at him and then keeping on Scott Bessant. After Trump announced it over the weekend as well, about a possible tariff dividend, Scott Besson confirmed that. Or announced that the 2000 tariff stimulus checks will most likely be going out to all Americans who make less than 100k a year, similar to what they did over Covid. I think 80k was like the threshold there or something like that. So it's one of those things where it sounds good, but to my inflation expert next to me, it seems like all free money ain't good money is this. If they do one for one with the tariff revenue that they do, some estimates have it around, they'll need 3 to 600 billion in order to make these payments work, depending on where they cut the income lines and kids and things like that. Is that something that then goes, okay, if they just do the tariff revenue one for one, it's balanced, you're cool with it. Or is it still. This is money being injected into the system and that can have some second order consequences we're not thinking about.

[Tom Bilyeu]

It will definitely have second and third order consequences, not that we're not thinking about. I mean, I can tell you exactly what's going to happen. Stock market's going to pump. Because what happens is people get the money. Some people just spend it. If you spend it, whatever you're spending it on, people watch that and go, ooh, that's hot. So they go buy the stock. Some people look at it and go, I just got extra money. And I know that I have to hide from the inflation that that's going to cause. So they're going to go into assets. So the stock market will pump. You'll get a rally in Pokemon cards. You'll also get a rally in One Piece cards. Shout out to One Piece. Hopefully Gundam as well, because those are the two I collect. And I literally couldn't care less about the amount of money. But anyway, that's exactly what's going to happen. Assets are going to pump everywhere. It won't be real wealth because we will. We're still just gaining so much debt. But I heard today that the Trump administration actually has slowed our debt to GDP growth. They claim it actually came down so. But by like a tenth of a point or something. But still, hey, that's. We're certainly moving in the right direction. So if these guys were really making big wins with the debt to GDP ratio and that 122 was suddenly 121 was suddenly one, uh, then I'd be like, okay, well if you guys need to put a little bit in the pocket of people so that you don't have a political vulnerability. Because let's all be clear for all of my beefs right now, if you said, I've got a left leaning candidate that can win with the aoc, Mamdani, Bernie, wing of the party and somebody on the right. I'm going to go with the person on the right almost certainly. I mean I need to look at their policies and all that. It's possible that they put a lunatic up but I'm going to guess they're going to be pushing forward more things like what they're doing. So if they're getting debt to GDP going down, I'm, I'm not a one issue voter but I'm very close. And so if they've got that number going down and they say listen, the number's going down, it's going to keep going down and we're going to do a bad thing and we're going to send out some stimmy checks just so that we bribe the American people to keep doing the right thing. I'd be like, okay, I get it. But yes, like that's just, it's, it's going to create more bubbles. So I mean here's part of the problem is you'll prolong the bubble and that there is some good to that. But. Oh God. So here's what you're doing. You're doing a couple stools, a couple legs of the beautiful deleveraging stool. So you have to be careful because if you don't do them all well, then you just get yourself back in trouble. But anyway, if I saw debt to GDP going down, which is your big indicator and they were putting the money directly in the hands of the people, then it's like, okay, like that buys you a little bit something. But it is that sort of beautiful deleveraging where you're doing a bad thing but like you're, you're doing the politically expedient thing.

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