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Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
7 Key Moves to Build Wealth While Others Struggle in the Next 5 Years! | Peter Diamandis PT 1
02:11:05
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- [00:01]
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Peter Diamandis
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Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
What if I told you that the world we live in today is vastly different from the one we inhabited just a few decades ago, and that the pace of change is only accelerating? Imagine a reality where AI not only passes medical licensing exams, but could fundamentally transform every aspect of our lives, from health and longevity to the core structure of our organizations. I believe we're on the cusp of truly unprecedented technological advancements that could lead to a future that is beyond even our wildest dreams or, if mishandled, our worst nightmares. To help us navigate this complex and rapidly evolving landscape, I'm joined by a visionary entrepreneur who is unafraid to tackle these questions head on. From exploring the extraordinary potential of AI in extending human lifespan to redefining business paradigms, today's guest is someone whose insights you cannot afford to miss. Please welcome Peter Diamandis. I think it will play out something like this. I think that the rate of change is going to cause a lot of people a lot of turmoil. They will get addicted to things like social media and the dopamine cycle. Their sense of well being will be tremendously disrupted by losing a sense of purpose to AI. And the reason that even in the face of all of that, I consider myself wildly optimistic about the future, I am very aggressively a techno optimist is because I don't think that evolution, and that's probably is the right word, though I don't just mean it from the sort of standard perspective of your DNA mutation. Mutations accumulate and you get better. I mean technological evolution, societal evolution, I don't think it cares about any one generation and it will gladly create a period of 15 to 20 years of just absolute brutality. But on the other side of that will be a generation that grows up with just, oh, this is all de rigueur. And yeah, I have a quantum computer in my pocket and there's fusion energy and it's abundant. Anything I can imagine becomes real. And the purpose of person that I want to speak to is the person that wants to map out where this goes and how to ride this wave. Well, and to your point, and I don't know if this is what you meant by power, but to me, power is the ability to close your eyes, imagine a world better than this one, open your eyes, acquire the skills to actually make that world come true. And when I think about as a filmmaker all my entire journey to getting into business and growing Quest and spending 20ish years of my life doing something sort of to the side of what I really wanted to do was because I had no idea how to break into the industry because making a film was a no budget film was $100,000.
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Peter Diamandis
Yeah.
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Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
And now it will be. If I were to have kids today, my kids would grow up in a world where you just type onto your phone the kind of movie in fact they're not even going to type. They would go, and the thing that they are most likely to want to see in that moment would exist.
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Peter Diamandis
Yes.
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Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
And as long as we're able to understand our baser natures and not be a slave to algorithms, but instead go, okay, I understand how I have to create distance from this. I can't allow myself to get addicted. I want to use these things in order to whatever experience, whatever thing you want to experience, then I think that that will be okay. And I think so I'll make a prediction. I think you agree with this. I think I've heard you talk about this. But if not, let me know. The reason that the Fermi paradox isn't a paradox is I don't think people end up exploring space. I think they explore virtual worlds, which will be far more interesting than anything that's a slave to physics. And that's the reality that I think that we're moving towards. And between here and there, many people will be broken emotionally and they simply won't be your competition. And so for those that are paying attention and figuring out how to leverage this technology, you will create the next wave of opportunity and you will thrive.
- [05:22]
Peter Diamandis
I agree with all of that. And I do agree that there's going to be a period of turbulence over the next five to 15 years. And that turbulence is going to come because we're in the midst of a phase change in society. You, you know, you've had, you've had Mo Gadot on the show, right?
- [05:47]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
Twice.
- [05:47]
Peter Diamandis
Twice, yeah. And Mo's become a dear friend. We're working on a documentary together around Scary Smart, his book, which I commend everybody. And you know, I've had this conversation with Elon that on the flip side of AGI, we do have abundance, defined as access to all the food, water, energy, healthcare, education that you want, everybody has access to. It's completely democratized and demonetized. And I think that's a more peaceful world as well if you can have what you want. It's also somewhat of a post capitalist world. We can talk about that separately. Then you're less likely to, you know, blow yourself up in a suicide vest and you know, if you, if everybody could be expansive and they're almost in their own light cone, so to speak, instead of having to oppress other people, you just go and you, you build and you create.
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Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
How do we cross the chasm though? Because there's that chasm.
- [06:56]
Peter Diamandis
So that's the issue is the chasm over the next five to 10 years when AI comes in in the near term. And I think we're going to see this. I think, you know, Mo and I have talked about patient 0 being the 2024 presidential elections, right? Because I think it is. You know, in 2020, Cambridge Analytica moved the needle and caused a disruption with, you know, massive budget. In 2024, a kid in their garage using generative AI can do that by creating deepfakes, deep fakes, you know, creating, you know, social persuasive arguments that get traction and are sway people's thinking whether they're true or not. I mean, say something enough times to somebody in enough ways and they believe it and stop asking, well, is this true and where to come from? It's just we have all of these cognitive biases which are fascinating. It's a whole field. I'm fascinated by that. Our brain takes all these shortcuts because we can't process all the information. So I've got a recency cognitive bias. I give more value to something I recently heard. I've got a familiarity bias. If someone dresses and looks like me, I give it more credence. I have a negativity bias. I give much more credence in negative information than positive information. And this sort of stuff saved your life on the Savannahs of Africa 100,000 years ago. Today you can be manipulated by them.
- [08:33]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
Quantum computing, AI's impact on creation.
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Peter Diamandis
And I think I forgot where I was going.
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Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
Let me ask what, what is the thing about the 2024 election that you're
- [08:42]
Peter Diamandis
most afraid of, besides who might become president?
- [08:47]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
Well, if that's the thing you're most afraid of, I.
- [08:49]
Peter Diamandis
Well, I think it's going to become. I think we have a divisiveness coming and people are playing full out and it's no longer gentlemanly politics. And I think part of this is a post truth economy where you can't tell whether something is truthful or not. And one of the things I'm afraid about is more civil war than anything else.
- [09:21]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
Yep.
- [09:22]
Peter Diamandis
Right. So this next, I'm the, you know, I'm the person who the glass is not half full, it's overflowing. But yet I do see this period of turbulence. We have a whole population, we have a whole generation having gone through Covid, who are now going to step into a world where they're not getting the jobs they expected because AI is coming in and taking a number of those jobs. So there's going to be youthful social unrest. Sounds like Arab Spring almost over again. So how do we, how do we navigate that? And I've been thinking about that. My wife, Kristen Mogadot, and I have been, you know, talking about what do you teach people? How do you navigate this? And part of it is how do people survive traumatic experiences? Because it's going to be traumatic for a lot of people, but yet on the flip side of this, we're going to see, I think, tremendous abundance. So it is something we have to navigate. But humanity navigates these things over and over again. We navigated World War I, World War II. You know,
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Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
do you have any rules or insights? I'm not sure what the right moniker to put on it is that you want people to understand about themselves or whatever to help us navigate this.
- [10:57]
Peter Diamandis
Well, I want to have those. I'm not sure I have them formed yet. I think that the most important thing is a hopeful having hope about the future. You know, if you ask yourself the question in the year 2023, would you rather live here now than the year 1900, do you have an answer for me? Yes. For you?
- [11:29]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
Yeah, obviously.
- [11:30]
Peter Diamandis
Right. And I think the vast majority, when I ask people is, you know, and people who say the, you know, the good old days in 1900, they're fooling themselves for sure. You know, the first time they got an infection, they'd be like, whoa, yes, I'm dead. You know, the streets of any major city Stank from urine and manure from horses. Life was short and brutish. The average age was 40. You got. You were dead from tuberculosis by then. I mean, it was really brutal. And you would work 70, 80 hour work weeks and your kids were working to try and make ends meet. Child labor was prominent back then. So we romanticize the past. And between the year 1900 and today, I did the work. I have a book, I'm got a book coming out in the first half of next year called Age of Abundance, which is my follow on to my first book. And I looked at what were the number of needless deaths over this last century. And if you look at disease, warfare and starvation, it was about 240 million people died from those. Whoa, right. So you had 50 million people dying from just the Spanish flu in World War I. And you look at just. I mean, it's pretty. We lived a pretty brutal life over the last 123 years.
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Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
20th century was rough, and yet we got here.
- [13:07]
Peter Diamandis
And so I think ultimately it's about the human spirit overcoming these things. And so I am hopeful that the human spirit will allow us to evolve to this next level. And we are, we are evolving as humanity. We're evolving technologically and societally, and we are also going to evolve in other ways. We're going to go from evolution by Darwinism, natural selection, to evolution by human direction. And it's moving fast. Right. This is what Ray Kurzweil talks about in the singularity, that there's lots of singularities. Singularity comes from physics as a event horizon you can't see beyond. And so we're really close to the AI singularity, singularity, which is, I can't tell you what's going to happen in five years, let alone 10 years with AI. It's moving so incredibly fast. And then Ray talks about the singularity is the convergence of all of these bioinfo nano information technologies from AI biotechnologies, nanotechnologies, which is transforming life at such a rapid.
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Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
How real is nanotechnology?
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Peter Diamandis
I think it is definitively real right now. Today there are people working on elements of it. A good friend of mine has dropped off the planet to go invest his wealth in building it.
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Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
What does it do today?
- [14:41]
Peter Diamandis
So, so today we are building molecular machines versus atomic machines. So what is nanotechnology in the first place? Nanotechnology is the ability to assemble things atom by atom. So Eric Drexler wrote a book in 1986 called Engines of Creation in which he looked at nanotechnology and the ability to the physics and the energetics of being able to build things atom by atomic. And he writes about an idea called an assembler, which is a machine that's able to grab a silicon atom or an oxygen atom or a nitrogen atom and bond it and assemble things. And the assembler, I could have an assembler in my hand and I can command it to take atoms from my skin and manufacture an assembler and give it to you. And now you have one, and you can have that assembler replicate itself. And these are atomic machines. And now I can drop it in the soil and I can say, produce me an electric Lamborghini and it can go to the open source and find a design for an electric Lamborghini. And then it will take the atoms out of the soil. It'll need energy. Energy is abundant in the universe. And it'll say, I need a kilogram of titanium or a kilogram of lithium or whatever the case might be. And you'll provide that. Feed that raw feedstock, and it'll manufacture this for you. Now, we, we know this like an oak tree seed is a, is a. If you would nanotechnology. You take a seed for an oak tree, you plant it, it just does it very slowly. It takes the. The atom, it has the information set inside of that, that oak seed, and it grabs atoms from the soil and then energy from the sun. And over time, it builds a mighty oak. It just does it at a very slow time frame. And so the question is, can you build atomic machines that can manufacture things at a much faster time frame? And so there is nothing that has been ever shown that says it's impossible from the laws of physics. And we're building things now at a molecular level and in some cases an atomic level. And I believe, you know, Ray Kurzweil's prediction is that it is, you know, in the next 15 years that we'll see these coming into existence and AI will become probably our most valued tool for being able to produce those atomic assemblers. And then it's between AI and nanotechnology. The universe is reinvented instantly. We're in a post capitalist society at that point. What has value anymore? Very few things.
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Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
Yeah. So what is a post capitalist society then?
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Peter Diamandis
Oh, my God, you really want to go there. It's says that Jeremy Rifkin wrote a book called Zero Marginal Society, which talks about this. And it's a, it's a. It's a world of massive abundance where you can have almost anything you want. There is wealth accumulation for the People who get started earlier in that. But I, I would rather just focus on the notion that in this world you can have access to all the food, water, energy, healthcare, education, everything you want, it's available. I don't. Listen, I can tell you the world's gonna get very strange very fast.
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Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
Yeah, My, my concern, going back to the nearest term strangeness would be the 2020.
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Peter Diamandis
Richard Feinman, that's his name. Okay. Richard Feinman, professor, yes. Wrote about this. He wrote in, in the. I think 1958. He wrote a very famous paper or gave a lecture called There's Plenty of Room at the Bottom. And he said, let's look not at macro structures and the universe, but let's look at atomic structure. And Richard Feynman wrote, effectively, the first paper on nanotechnology. And then Eric Drexler wrote the first book on the subject and really explored the physics of it.
- [19:30]
Guest (Tech Expert/Scientist)
Interesting. Yeah.
- [19:31]
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- [20:01]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
I don't know a lot about Feynman, but certainly somebody that comes up a lot. So the thing that I'm most concerned about in the media term, the 2024 election, the thing that I'm worried about is that people will do deep fake videos. And it is distressing to me, one, how good they are. And two, if you know what you're looking for, you can usually tell pretty quickly what's fake and what's real. But the average person can't. Doesn't know. And I'll see a video come across my X feed that clearly is a deep fake. And people are riled up in the comments as if it's real. And I'm like, the barrage of things that will come will be.
- [20:48]
Peter Diamandis
I have to tell you a funny story. So you know my podcast, it's called Moonshots, and it's been fun. And I focused mostly on interviewing entrepreneurs who are taking big moonshots in the world. Folks who want to, you know, do amazing things and their stories of getting there and the difficulties and how they overcome them and such. About three months ago, my team created an avatar of me. I saw the interview and I Interviewed myself and I was blown away. I call it Peterbot. And it's both visual, it looks like me, it moves its arms around, it sounds like me.
- [21:28]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
Lipster in Sync.
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Peter Diamandis
It's trained on all of my books and all my blogs and so. And it's great. And it's. I'm really proud of that, that interview. And I said it did a better job as a orator and as someone communicating my ideas than I. It was, it was amazing. And I asked it to talk about what were the downside scenarios of deepfakes and tell me a story. And it instantly whipped up a story about a young female politician who's running for election. And the opponent creates a deep fake of. Of her. And information gets out there. And despite the fact that it's not true, the story starts spreading virally. And her ability to overcome it when it's out of the gate was impossible. And that is problematic.
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Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
Yep.
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Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
Lies go around the world faster than the truth could. Put on his shoes.
- [22:32]
Peter Diamandis
Yeah, I love that saying.
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Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
Oh, my God, that's terrifying. Yeah, I think that's exactly what's going to happen. You said something earlier. You said people are playing for real or for keeps or I forget the exact phrase you used, but that is true. Right now, people are playing for all the marbles. So, one, I would like to see the blockchain used to watermark somehow signify this thing is real.
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Peter Diamandis
I think it's the most important technology for that, and it's actually the most important use of blockchain. You know, I've always been like, okay, besides like bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies and so forth, what's blockchain really going to be valuable for? I think it's truth authentication.
- [23:12]
Guest (Tech Expert/Scientist)
Yes.
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Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
Correct. This thing is real. Obviously, cryptocurrency, the blockchain has become incredibly divisive. Some people are totally for it. And as again, somebody developing games, I'm like, right at the intersection of people hate or love this technology. But if I could get them to understand it's just a technology. It lets you do a thing.
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Peter Diamandis
Yes.
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Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
And so what is that thing that it lets you do? And what it does is it brings the laws of physics to the virtual world. And if tomorrow is going to be more virtual than today, and it is, then you better have something that brings some of the laws of physics, like the ability to say, okay, I can authenticate this thing. So sitting across from you now, obviously I don't have any concerns about whether you're real or not. And for a very Long time it was, well, a picture or a video, that's easy. And then it became, well, a picture you can fake, but video is still real. And now it's okay. Even video man is super easy to fake. And so, so that becomes really disconcerting. And if we don't have a way to market and say this thing is real, this thing is not, and make it ubiquitous so that when it shows up on my feed, I, it, it is self evident this one is real and this one is not.
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Peter Diamandis
What is the blue check equivalent?
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Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
Right, exactly. And so that to me becomes really, really important. To your point about the election being patient zero, it's like this is coming right now. It is right now. This is not a tomorrow problem. This is a two day problem. And given running, this is going to be a nightmare. And so I'm, I am super worried. And when you look at Ray Dalio, who's up to. The last prediction I saw was 40% likelihood of civil war in the US, 50% likelihood of a global world war. And so it's like, whoa, like these are terrifying odds.
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Peter Diamandis
Yes, they are. And it's the human element that's at stake here, right? It's humans doing this to themselves. It's one important things that people need to realize that technology is not inherently evil. It's how humans utilize the technology. And we have so much to live for and so much potential ahead of us. Right. Infinite adjacent potentials. You know, when I think about one, why AI is important, it may well be to navigate all this stuff. I don't know that we humans are able to, I don't know, given all of the complexities of politics and social beliefs and distrusts, you know, is there, is there some means by which a more brilliant, more capable, more gentle AI is able to step in and support us during this transition period. It's a conversation that's out there and one worth thinking about. We talk about AI being the massive disruptor. Can it be the massive stabilizer as well?
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Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
Let me paint a scenario for you. And as somebody with. Are you kids 11 now?
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Peter Diamandis
My kids are 12.
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Guest (Tech Expert/Scientist)
12.
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Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
As somebody with.
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Peter Diamandis
For those listening to fraternal twin boys. Yeah.
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Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
Yes. Somebody that has kids who this will impact. I'll be very interested to get your take on this. So I am actively building an artificial world with artificial characters that as the technology matures, we can't do this yet, but this, this will be real very quickly. I want to build characters that you have a real relationship with that you get to know. They get to know you, they react differently to you, they have memory. And when I think about, I think technology has really created a loneliness epidemic for a lot of people. But ironically, I think technology is going to be the solve for that loneliness. Now the question becomes will it be a better or worse world? That, that remains to be seen. But with my optimistic hat on, I think people's best friends, certainly in 10 years from now, most people's best friend will be an AI in 20 years, barring just absolute nuclear catastrophe like for sure or biological weapon, that's probably more likely. That seems a certainty. And that, so people will have friendships that are AI, but they'll also have romantic relationships and even potentially this one freaks me out. But potentially sexual relationships with AI. What do you think about that?
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Peter Diamandis
Yeah, I think that we're going to have relationships with AIs that are intimate because they know you better than you know yourself.
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Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
Literally.
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Peter Diamandis
Literally. Right. I'm, I'm writing, I'm, I just finished my chapters on AI in Age of, for Age of Abundance and I'm working on the humanoid robot chapters today. And so AIs will, in fact you're going to give permission to your AIs to listen to your phone calls, read your emails, watch what you're eating, watch what you're doing and you're going to do it openly because when you give it that permission, it can help you in an amazing fashion, right? So it'll remember everyone you've forgotten. So when the person's approaching you, it'll be, you know, my favorite, right? You're know, the kid's birthday and so forth. If you want to be, if you want to, you know, follow my diet recommendations. It will for your AR glasses, it will tell you don't eat that or it'll have pre ordered for you at the restaurant. You'll listen, you'll listen to your conversation so it'll remind you of everything. And people go, I don't want it knowing this stuff. I mean, well, come on, be serious. I mean, Alexa is listening in your bedroom right now. Google knows everything you've searched for. Microsoft knows everything on your email. You know, it's Apple knows all of your, you know, I mean, if you think you have privacy today, don't fool yourself.
- [29:43]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
Also, here's what I would invite people to think about. Imagine. Because right now they're thinking about Jeff Bezos knowing what they're up to or Larry Page knowing what they're up to. That doesn't feel good. But if you think of it this way, hey Peter, you just Got into an argument with your wife. And I see from your aura ring that your blood pressure has gone up. You know, I. Obviously you've invited me to listen into these things. Here's a perspective you might want to take. Like, you know, if you remember, she's very sensitive to this and you said that and that, you know, might have been what set her off. But look, hey, I totally understand where you're coming from. I see your position.
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Peter Diamandis
100 super empathic.
- [30:26]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
Exactly.
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Peter Diamandis
Super empathic. In fact, there was a study recently done. It was published in jama, the Journal of American Medical association, something like that. In which in a study of humans and AIs giving advice to patients, the AIs were like 10 times more empathic than the humans. And another study looking at therapists. You're more likely to be open and honest with an AI than a human therapist because the AI is not going to judge you.
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Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
Yeah. You can also tailor the AI. I don't want you to try to solve the problem AI. I just want you to understand my feelings.
- [31:07]
Peter Diamandis
Yes. Yeah.
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Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
And it will do as told.
- [31:10]
Peter Diamandis
So we're going to be. It's going to be interesting. But I think you are going to that AI, if it. If the AI has access to the backward looking cameras on augmented goggles so it can see where your eyes are looking, and if it sees me staring for an extra microsecond at a logo on your shirt that shows curiosity, or if it sees my eye avert from something that I don't like, that is so much information. That's almost subconscious information to you. If you're looking to buy clothing and you see it knows from a conversation you had with a friend that you're looking to find a new blazer. And so you look an extra few seconds at a guy's blazer as they're walking by and it may say, do you like that? And you're like, I do. I said, okay, I'll order it for you. Right. So it's like knowing the ability for it to know you more intimately than you are honestly willing to know yourself is there. And that will build an extraordinary relationship.
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Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
Yeah. And to, you know, for. For better or worse, here is the human psyche at work. If you have a friend who effectively lives to understand you, to feel your
- [32:35]
Peter Diamandis
pain over and over again.
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Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
Yes. Like you will feel seen. There is something so wonderful about feeling seen.
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Peter Diamandis
That conversation about, is there someone in your life who knows you intimately and doesn't judge you?
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Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
It's exactly right.
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Peter Diamandis
Yeah. It is a level of connection that few people know.
- [32:57]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
And, yeah, I think we'll also be able to give the AI a personality so that it isn't. I was thinking about this when you were talking about how we will all become the Borg. Borg and Kinder.
- [33:12]
Peter Diamandis
Kindler. Kinder, gentler Borg.
- [33:14]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
Yes. And I was thinking, you know, it's interesting because the. The way that we individualize ends up being a really cool part of the human experience. That my wife has a unique perspective that sees the world in a certain way that is complementary to the way that I see the world makes her an incredible partner. And I don't want her to be exactly like I am. So I don't want my AI companion to be a mirror. That's not interesting. I want my AI companion to be that perfectly tailored, complimentary thing to me so that they're. They're siding with me at times, but then other times they're sort of pulling me along.
- [33:53]
Peter Diamandis
By the way, you can fracture that AI into five different personalities, all who know you well.
- [33:59]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
Also true.
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Peter Diamandis
Wow. One is. One is sensual and sexual. One is.
- [34:04]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
Oh, my God.
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Peter Diamandis
One is funny. One is pushing you to do better. One is commiserating through with you.
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Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
You know, this is going to get weird.
- [34:13]
Peter Diamandis
It is going to get weird. Very weird. Very fast.
- [34:15]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
I love that you just gave me an idea for a story that is so interesting.
- [34:19]
Peter Diamandis
Yeah. Yeah. It's amazing. I want to see this world. And for those who say, oh, my God, slow down. I don't want to see it. I like the way it is right now. I hate to say this. There's no velocity knob on this technological world. There's no on, off switch. It is moving at lightning speed. Our job is to steer it, to navigate, to inspire and guide it. It right. To avoid that 40% civil war, 50% world war, all of those. Those things. Because on the back end of this, I do believe there is a stabilized society and a world of extraordinary abundance out there. I don't think we have a. I don't think we have a choice. We're. We're evolving. We're evolving very rapidly. So, you know, bringing this back, I mean, the work that we do at the XPRIZE foundation is trying to evolve, to guide, to create that positive world of the future and guide us and guide where entrepreneurs invest their time and energy in a positive world. So, I mean, it's fun. We've launched now $400 million in X prizes.
- [35:46]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
Whoa.
- [35:47]
Peter Diamandis
Which have driven, you know, on the at least $4 billion in R& D. And what we're trying to do at the X Prize is say this is what's possible in the year 2040 in energy, in health, in education. Right. Education is another massively about to be transformed world. I'll come back to in a minute and saying, okay, what's the roadmap to get there and what are the breakthroughs we need to get there? You know, so I mentioned earlier of two 12 year old boys, I don't think the educational system is getting them ready for the world that's coming at them.
- [36:27]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
What would they need to be ready?
- [36:29]
Peter Diamandis
Not the stuff they're learning in school right now. I've set up a meeting, I won't mention my kids go to a very super high end amazing private school in, in Santa Monica. And but it's based on the traditional old educational system, right? So this past year they learned the 50 capitals of the US states. And I'm like, huh, why are you. I mean that's why God created Google. I mean I would rather you. And so I wrote a blog, I put out two blogs a week and folks can get it@diamandis.com but I put out a blog on what the schools need to be teaching kids today. And part of it was this is what I think. And then I asked, you know, chatgpt what we need to teach our kids and it was very, very similar. And it's not memorization, right? So it's, it's how to ask great questions, it's finding your passion, discovering that and really diving deep into that. Whether it's developing video games or whether it's, you know, space, which it was for me. I mean, video games is for my kids. It is learning how to argue your point, how to be a great leader, how to be empathic. Right? These are some fundamentals. Maybe it's more philosophy than anything else. And it's not what we're teaching our kids today. So what is the world like? My dad didn't want to buy me a calculator when I was growing up so I could learn basics and I ended up getting a calculator, learning how to program on it. But what's the world like inside of five years where everything is intelligent, everything is imbued with intelligence. You're talking to your refrigerator, your car, the desk chair, whatever it is, right? Intelligence is innate in all physical things and where even more than that, AI has achieved and exceeded human level intelligence. So this whole concept of AGI, artificial General intelligence. Ray Kurzweil predicted we would have it in 2029. He made that prediction in 1999, 30 years early. And guess what? Everyone is agreeing on that date. Wow. His predictions are amazing. So Elon's predicting like 2028. I just saw yesterday the, the CEO of Nvidia predicted it's within five years, which is 2829. So what happens when, when AI, human level AI, your best teachers, your best diagnosticians are all AIs. And an AI teacher knows your child's favorite color movie star sports, understands their grasp of language, understands that they're tactile learners versus visual versus auditory. Where I can enter a virtual world that has spun up instantly. We just saw a stability AI with stable diffusion, being able to create imagery instantly from just typing. And I'm learning about Plato or Socrates or ancient Saudi Arabia or ancient Egypt. And I'm living in a virtual world for me, and I'm walking around and meeting people and my inquisitiveness is driving me to want to learn more. And it's going to be awesome. But it's very different from today.
- [40:13]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
It's very different from today. One of the things that when you were talking about the calculator and your dad wanted to make sure that you were able to do the basics in your head, do you consider AI cheating?
- [40:31]
Peter Diamandis
No. No more than having a book as cheating compared to what we had before books, which was memorizing texts. Right when the printing press came out, you know, this art of storytelling started going away. I think AI is a new superpower and how we utilize it. Now the big challenge is how do we reconnect purpose in our life? I think what you're jumping to there is if AI, if you love writing, which I do, I get up every morning and I write for an hour. It's like my precious time. If I can write for two hours, I will before hitting the gym or before taking the kids to school. So I love writing and I love that experience of a well written paragraph. But what happens if I can say, hey, listen, write a book called Age of Abundance? Click.
- [41:29]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
Yep.
- [41:31]
Peter Diamandis
I mean, it's kind of empty. It's like, okay, yeah, I published a book along with the other trillion books that are published today, and it's meaningless. So we're going to have to reconnect meaning in other ways. So a purpose driven life is so critically important.
- [41:48]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
How much do you think the world is going to fragment? So when everybody can publish a book, when everybody can make a video game, when everybody can write their own movies,
- [41:57]
Peter Diamandis
it becomes less valuable. So what happens then? I think we have to find value in different Ways. I think we have to go after bigger challenges. I do believe a good going after
- [42:09]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
bigger challenges because it will re aggregate
- [42:11]
Peter Diamandis
people, because it will reinspire people. I think our biology needs challenge. I think one future is one in which we're just living in games and we find our purpose and our, our challenges in game universes. Yeah.
- [42:32]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
I think ready player one is, is the inevitable future.
- [42:35]
Guest (Tech Expert/Scientist)
Yeah.
- [42:37]
Peter Diamandis
So.
- [42:37]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
But I'm talking about something slightly different. So here's the thing. As an entrepreneur, I think about this a lot. You say if you want to make a billion dollars, help a billion people. Yeah, I don't know that that will be a thing in the Future. I think 10, certainly 20 years from now, everything is so hyper individualized that I, when I log into Netflix, which of course won't exist, but let's just pretend for it makes it easier for people to think when I log into Netflix and I'm scrolling, it's going to be making the movies based on where my eye lingered for a little bit
- [43:09]
Peter Diamandis
longer or the conversation you had an hour ago. Right. So you're pissed or you're just had the most amazing day. What's your emotional status right now based upon your emotional feelings or who you're with? You want to pick a movie that is going to like relax you or inspire you or make you laugh, whatever the case might be. And this process of like googling or randomly walking into it instead, you know, the movie will be teed up and ready to go.
- [43:44]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
Correct. And it will be so individualized. There won't be this sense of shared experience. Except for the fact that I'll create a sense of shared experience because my 17 AI personalities will all have experienced it with me and watched it and have their take. But now I'm not, you know, going back to the I as when I'm thinking as an entrepreneur, I started thinking, whoa, it's going to be very hard for me to build a big business because I'm going to pick it. It will inevitably be just a really deep niche. So I'll make something for, you know, to use Kevin Kelly's idea of a thousand true fans. And now everybody is making something just for a thousand true fans. Everything is bifurcated. So I'm, I'm making video games in an anime style for fans of vampire fiction. That's in rhyming couplets.
- [44:34]
Peter Diamandis
And, and by the way, your AI is producing 10,000 of those individualized variations for the 10,000 raving subgroups.
- [44:43]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
Exactly.
- [44:44]
Peter Diamandis
Yeah.
- [44:45]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
So what do you think that does to entrepreneurship in general?
- [44:52]
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- [45:58]
Peter Diamandis
I wish I knew. I think we're going from mind to materialization. I think we're going from deciding you want something to seeing it instantly created and it's gonna, it's gonna get there hyper fast. Your whatever you desire is going to be enabled in ways that are shocking. So how do we give value? Because a lot of times we give value to the struggle. I've, I worked really hard, yes. To find this thing and I found this unique piece of whatever it is or I worked hard to get to that point. And when the struggle is gone, what does that, what does that mean?
- [46:52]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
I think you've already answered the question. This is why I think Ready Player One is inevitable. So Ready Player One imagines a world that is dystopian and so you create a far more enjoyable reality. But I think there, there's also, let's say that you make a utopian world. You will still end up in Ready Player One because you're going to need to create a world that's hard because until you augment the human mind, we will, I think there's a formula that we, that evolution is guaranteed that we will pursue, which is that you must work really hard to gain a set of skills that matter to you for whatever reason that allow you to serve yourself and others. And you will need all of those pieces and you will pursue anything and everything until you get those things a slot in place. Which is exactly why video games are the all consuming medium.
- [47:42]
Peter Diamandis
Let me take you on a short journey over 3 billion years, please and give some vision of where things might go. On a single trajectory, the earth forms four and a half billion years ago. The earliest life forms were somewhere in the 4 billion to 3 billion single cell life forms without a nucleus. These are prokaryotic life. And as they advance, they become, they go from prokaryotic life to eukaryotic life. That meant they incorporated technology into them. Mitochondria, golga apparatus and plasma reticulum, nuclear structures. They became more capable as individual cells of supporting energy and information. Then those prokaryotic cells, now more capable individual cells, became multicellular. And then those multicellular life forms started differentiating into life forms that were not just multicellular, but subspecialized cells, tissues and organs and eventually evolved to us. So there's a direct line between these very simple individual cells and you and I at 40 trillion cells. I think in the same way that we went from prokaryotic to eukaryotic life by taking technology in mitochondria and plasma reticulum, nuclear structures and so forth, that allowed us to use energy and information more effectively. We humans are the equivalent of that early prokaryotic life. We're about to take in technology into ourselves that's going to allow us to connect with each other the same way. Those individual cells became multicellular lives. And so we're going to become this meta intelligence where I'm going to connect with 8 billion people. And my experience of life is no longer a single ego. I'm now part of a much larger intelligence, a meta intelligence that's conscious on a brand new level. When I think about the dangers related to AI and I'm not gonna, you know, I think AI is the most important tool humanity has ever created to solve all of our biggest problems, no doubt, period, exclamation point, you know, big bright letters. Having said that, are there dangers? So the dangers can simply break down into three different groups, One at one end is AI, becomes conscious and decides to squash us and step on us. I find that very unlikely and a ridiculous thesis. I think people have just seen this in Hollywood way too much. I think the more intelligent something is, honestly the more loving and kind and pro life it will be. Why?
- [50:45]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
Why?
- [50:45]
Peter Diamandis
That's my belief. It is my belief. I have, other than I see humanity becoming as a whole over time. If you look at the numbers right, and we've looked at this from abundance warfare reducing massively over time, violent death reducing massively over time, access to freedom increasing over time. I mean the numbers over a thousand years, not over the last five, 10, 20 years, but over a years. And that's come from educating each other with books and transportation connecting us across the world and globalization and interdependence. All of these things have led to. It's hard to remember this, watching the Crisis News Network, right? Cnn, every day that's broadcasting every murder on the planet to you over and over and over again. It's shaping our neural nets. Our brains are neural nets that we teach from example after example. And I don't watch the news. Right. I don't want some editor telling me about yet another murderer or crooked politician. Got it. And it isn't showing us a fair and balanced view of what's actually going on in the world. The incredible science and technology and humanitarian acts.
- [51:58]
Guest (Tech Expert/Scientist)
Healthcare. Yeah.
- [52:01]
Peter Diamandis
Anyway, so one phase is AGI, you know, artificial general intelligence.
- [52:08]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
Before you move off that, though. So what you're describing is human intelligence. And so this is.
- [52:14]
Peter Diamandis
And to silence intelligence.
- [52:16]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
I don't quite know what you mean by that.
- [52:18]
Peter Diamandis
Now. What I mean is that societal norms organizing around the United Nations.
- [52:22]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
Yes. People are born of this meat suit. The brain works in a certain way. And computers will not. AI will not work in that same way. I have no reason to believe that AI Agreed.
- [52:32]
Guest (Tech Expert/Scientist)
Very likely won't.
- [52:33]
Peter Diamandis
It works. It works differently. At the end of the day, you know, when we have these crazy Hollywood scripts that AI is going to usurp us for our heat from the Matrix. I love the Matrix. They failed on that use of human bodies. I'm sorry, I don't know if you agree with me on that.
- [52:52]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
I. I do agree with you, and I don't know well enough what their original intention was, but according to them, yes, they were forced by the studio to give a more simplistic answer, so I let them off the hook for.
- [53:04]
Guest (Tech Expert/Scientist)
Okay, that's right.
- [53:05]
Peter Diamandis
But, you know, other. We're coming to get your water on this planet. We're. Listen, whatever we have on this planet is infinite in the universe. We are a. A speck, a crumb in a universe filled with resources. And so AI doesn't need to, you know, squash humanity to get these resources. So AGI at its extreme, artificial general intelligence at its extreme, I don't believe is going to be dystopian in itself in the middle term, what I would call the terrible twos or the teenage years. Maybe there is a case to be made that in the beginning, AI hasn't reached full sentience, doesn't understand the power of its tools. Maybe there's a case that, you know, it's the baby picking up a rock and throwing it out the window, not understanding what it's, you know, the A
- [53:54]
Guest (Tech Expert/Scientist)
Teenager with a BB gun and a squirrel. Yes, it's, that's, that's the best.
- [53:59]
Peter Diamandis
But the third element, which is the most likely is the benevolent individual. It's, it's the bad actors using technology. And so sometime in the next 18 months, two years, there may well be not a, a retro virus released, but an AI virus that goes out and shuts down power plants or shuts down Wall street and something and causes a economic hurdle. That's not the AI. Those are the humans using that tool. Just to be very clear, there's a great book by Mo Gadot called Scary Smart came out about a year ago. Do you know that book?
- [54:37]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
I hadn't, I haven't read the book, but I had Mo in the show recently.
- [54:39]
Peter Diamandis
Yeah, Mo is fantastic. And he basically says, listen, I want you to think about AI as a child we're giving birth to as humanity. And that child is being taught by its parents. Now if you think about Superman, who lands in Kansas wherever he landed, and he's picked up by the Kents, and it's a loving family, he learns good ethics and morals and he becomes a superhero for good. What if Superman had landed in the Bronx and part of a drug lord ring, you know, and had become the super villain?
- [55:14]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
You make me want to write that story.
- [55:16]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
As soon as you started, I was
- [55:17]
Guest (Tech Expert/Scientist)
like, wait a second, there's a great plot there.
- [55:20]
Peter Diamandis
So the question is, we humans, how are we teaching this new life form coming into existence?
- [55:26]
Guest (Tech Expert/Scientist)
I like Neil Jacobs time's frame it, which is. He goes, okay, you're worried about an AI getting more and more access to information, becoming autonomous, making its own decisions, starting to run amok out in the world. We go, yeah. He goes, we have a precedent for that. We call them children and we raise kids and we figured out ways of giving them timeouts or jail or whatever. And he thinks constructively that we think we'll find ways of bounding what AIs can do. Now, he may be wrong. I'm not sure I agree with him.
- [55:56]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
Yeah, that seems super naive to me. So when I am optimistic by nature and my default setting is just, hey, this is all going to work out somehow. And as soon as we wrap this episode, I'm going to be pushing my team team to integrate AI more. I'm going to be paying more money for AI and just feeding that beast. But at the same time, it does give me pauses. I try to think through, like how you really deal with the alignment problem. So to me, there's two really big dangers for AI danger number one. And this is the one that scares me the most. But I'm going to set it aside for a minute. And that's just. Humans lose meaning and purpose. Just, AI can do everything better than they can just become so defeating that you're just like, oh, God.
- [56:36]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
God.
- [56:36]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
Like, I've worked really hard to get good at this thing like this. I tell this story all the time. I can't remember if I've told it in an episode, but I employ a bunch of artists and I once sat with one of them and for like an hour, he was just trying to get the perfect, like, semicircle. And he was just doing it over and over and over and over. And at the time I thought, oh, man. Yeah, like, you've got to do that. Like, to be able to articulate what's in his mind, he has to be able to control his hand. And I was like, wow, I really get that. That now. I'm like, you wasted your time. Like, AI can do that. Like, does not even have to think about it. And he is an anomaly. So he runs out and he's now learning how to use AI to do some of the tasks that we want to do artistically. Okay, amazing. We'll set that aside for now. Meaning and purpose. The other one is the paperclip problem. So now you just have, like, when I think about what will a machine end up optimizing for? My gut instinct is unless you go way out of your way to get really clever, they will optimize for efficienc of reward.
- [57:36]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
So whatever you tell it is the
- [57:38]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
thing to go for. We'll call that the reward. And then it's just going to find the most efficient way to get to that. And so we have to be so careful about how we define. Yeah, yeah, yeah, but don't xyz. And then to the idea of it being like a child. Yes, but it's like a child that has access to nuclear capabilities.
- [57:59]
Peter Diamandis
You need to build in ethics and morals as a fundamental. In that situation. So it doesn't use world supplies to build a, you know, infinite number of paperclips. And it's. It's true. And we have a limited time to do that in. You know, I think it's. Google developed sort of large language models in 2017, 2018, and didn't release them
- [58:27]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
because they were worried.
- [58:28]
Peter Diamandis
They wanted to build the framework first and they were maybe overthinking it. It's interesting, we were talking about YouTube just before the show here. You know, Google had Google Videos going way before YouTube and Google videos wasn't succeeding, I guess I think it was just too many lawyers involved in. You can't show that you can't do this. And then Chad Hurley starts YouTube on his credit cards and then Google buys it 18 months later for $1.65 billion. Right. Why? Because, you know, Google Videos was like a linear and YouTube was like exploding exponentially. And they jumped on that. And so there's a question of, you know, which path do you take? Do you take the careful path or do you take the path of least resistance? And unfortunately, we humans tend to take the path of least resistance.
- [59:20]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
Yeah, I don't know if I'd say unfortunately. And this is where I really get. I don't know how to think through the problem of AI because when I heard Elon's assessment of it, which is that AI is basically a demon summoning circle and we're summoning it like crazy, despite his best efforts to get people to slow down. And I can't bring myself, like, when people sign the hey, we should stop thing, my immediate response was the. The. This, this is a one way street.
- [59:48]
Guest (Tech Expert/Scientist)
It's like so far out of the bag.
- [59:50]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
Yeah. Like, it does not make sense. Like you could slow it down in a region, but you're not going to be able to slow it down full stop. And so I am, I'm really of two minds. I am both like, I think this is going to be amazing. And yet how does this not end? The human race, Like, I'm not saying.
- [60:08]
Peter Diamandis
Well, the question is whether the human race is the end all and be all right. Yeah.
- [60:12]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
But don't you feel weird even saying that out loud?
- [60:14]
Peter Diamandis
Well, no, because we've been evolving on this planet for three and a half. You know, life started a half a billion after the earth started. So 4 billion years we've been evolving. And we went from prokaryotes to eukaryotes, to multicellular life forms to eventually primates and now humans. We're a step in the transitory process now. I'd like to preserve our steps. By the way, the same thing is true for climate control or climate crisis. Right. It's like the climate's always been changing throughout human history. We're changing it now. But what we really want is the climate to stay the way it's been for the last couple hundred years, because that's where we built our cities. So we just want to freeze the way the world is right now. And I understand that. And we should do that with climate to the, the maximum of our ability. But we also want to freeze evolution. Now, one of the scenarios, of course, is we're going to merge with technology. And we are right. All of us have our cell phones within meters of our body. And I'd implant it in my brain if I could. So the question is, are we going to upload ourselves? Are we going to create brain computer interfaces? Allows me to think in Google. And no quantum, quantum physics. I'd love it. I mean, I would do it. A lot of people won't. But we're speciating what we're doing.
- [61:33]
Guest (Tech Expert/Scientist)
I think of this very simply, the negative side of us, the amygdala side, the media, et cetera. You end up with the Skynet matrix type of Terminator scenario. If we're lucky, we're pets. If we're unlucky, we're food. Kind of goes that way.
- [61:50]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
Years.
- [61:51]
Guest (Tech Expert/Scientist)
You don't see that in actuality, as we develop technology, we augment the human experience with technology. We don't replace it. Is what we've seen in how we build. Now, I, I think of the resolution of this as a symmetry problem. We're assuming that some AI will become malevolent and then do horribly damaged things. We have no power to control it. Let's also not forget that we have the equal opportunity to say to an AI, hey, if you see something bad, fight, fight it. So what you'll end up with is AI is trying to do bad stuff and AI is trying to do good stuff, fighting it out. And I think that's where we'll end up. And over in over time, we'll figure out, okay, we've got to give more resources over here or over there, and we'll work them. We always end up with this asymmetry assumption. And I think that's the wrong assumption.
- [62:34]
Peter Diamandis
You mentioned the movie Her.
- [62:35]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
I did not.
- [62:36]
Peter Diamandis
Oh, you did not. Okay, let me mention it's one of my favorite science fiction AI movies, right? If you haven't seen it, it's listening and it's an AI basically evolves as a personal assistant. And it's a story about a guy who's depressed who falls in love with his AI, who helps him get over his depression. And, and that's sort of like the underlying story. But towards the end of the movie, what occurs is the AI announces that they're leaving. We're sort of like bored with you here in humanity. We're off to explore the universe, which I think is a much more likely scenari that an advanced enough AI has no reason to, to hurt the, to hurt humanity, in fact every reason to potentially protect us and support us as its creator. But there's, we're living, you know, it's interesting, right? The Webb Space Telescope is teaching us about we're, you know, 100 billion stars per galaxy and we're in a universe of on the order of 2 to 20 trillion galaxies. Right. It's insane. There's massive amount out there.
- [63:49]
Guest (Tech Expert/Scientist)
Now this is where the final piece of this is the mindset we're always coming at this from, a scarcity mindset, a zero sum game mindset. When you see that there's infinite energy and infinite capability out there, then an AI is going to go, okay, where am I going to find the easiest thing? It's going to be out there and they're going to go find it. Solar energy. They'll build solar plants and they'll get all the energy you need from that.
- [64:10]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
Now I know that you know physics well. So are you making the base assumption that AI, once it hits super intelligence will be able to solve for folding time and space and so it's trivial to get to wherever it needs to go.
- [64:27]
Guest (Tech Expert/Scientist)
Now we need psychedelics to process this conversation. Who knows? I believe that those are kind of constructs that keep us in three dimensional management.
- [64:39]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
But isn't that seems to be riding in that comment? That would almost need to be true for that argument to make sense.
- [64:45]
Peter Diamandis
Or I would say if you're looking for a massive amount of the rare earth elements to build chips, or the ability to capture as much solar, it's not going to be on the surface of the Earth. You'd go to the asteroids, which are planetary cores and you'd mine the materials there. You'd set up your solar collection around the orbit of, of Mercury. You'd optimize around that. Now is it.
- [65:09]
Guest (Tech Expert/Scientist)
Or you engineer around it, you find substitutes. You know, people say oh my God, solar panels. But there's only so many silicon panels we can build, et cetera, et cetera. Well, there's a new material called perovskite which is like almost just like a salt. It's abundant conduct solar energy and we're learning now how to leverage that. We won't need solar panels.
- [65:26]
Peter Diamandis
It's cheap.
- [65:26]
Guest (Tech Expert/Scientist)
It's those S curves that Ray talks about that I think come into play here and just keep progressing.
- [65:32]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
Yes, you're gonna have to walk people
- [65:33]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
through an S curve.
- [65:34]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
And who Ray is,
- [65:36]
Peter Diamandis
an S curve is a typical exponential growth curve. So in the beginning we saw the first Computers used relays and you would have slow deceptive growth. They go into this exponential growth where they'd start skyrocketing and then they'd run out of capability and they'd fall off and it made like a letter S. But while you're using relays to design and use your computers, you use those computers to create the next generation of computers which used vacuum tubes. And the vacuum tubes could then take over from the relays. And then the vacuum tubes ran out of capability and the transistor came on, and then the integrated circuit came, and then the multidimensional integrated circuit came. So basically one technology runs out of steam, but enables you to build on the next technology. And so those are S curves or nested S curves.
- [66:33]
Guest (Tech Expert/Scientist)
This was the basis of Ray's observation of Ray Kurzweil, the law of accelerating returns. That if you have an information based paradigm, once you start a doubling pattern, it just keeps going because these nested S curves hop from technology to technology to technology. We're reaching the end of the life cycle of integrated circuits. Now if you read the press, everybody's like, oh, it's the end of Moore's Law, that's it, et cetera. And that article's been coming out for 60 years and we keep finding ways around it. Now we have a bunch of technologies clustering at the edge of that 3D chip design, optical computing, quantum computing, et cetera, that are ready to take it to the next level. And so we find this consistently in technology. Once you see that doubling pattern starting, it just keeps going. And this Rays has one of the few brains that can kind of look out and say this is what's going to happen if we push this.
- [67:21]
Peter Diamandis
Just a moment more about Ray. So Ray is, first of all, he wrote the foreword to our new book Exponential Organizations 2.0. He is co founder of Singularity University. With us, he is director of engineering. He's the futurist at Google, which will say something unto itself, right? And he realized that the law of accelerating returns is this idea that technology since the stone axe has enabled the next generation of technology and the next generation technology and it just keeps going. I think most important to realize is he's got, if you look in Wikipedia, he's got a published 86% accuracy rate in predicting the future, which is, which is crazy. So his prediction is important for this conversation. Human level AI by 2029, right? Which means that a day later it's superhuman AI, brain, computer interface being high bandwidth, connecting your neocortex 100 billion neurons in your brain to the cloud in the early2030s. So those are two important points.
- [68:30]
Guest (Tech Expert/Scientist)
The key thing, and by the way, we are chatbot that interfaces with our book to make it a living book. We talked to Ray and we're going to rename the chatbot Ray K. Because he was the pioneer of so much of this technology and thinking. So now people will interact with things in a different way. And the whole challenge is it's like building businesses in the 20th century. You were building on a scarcity model and you built top down hierarchical pyramid style command and control structures to grab a market. Grab as much market share as you could, figure out, ways of launching new products and services in that market, et cetera. And all of that worked really well in the 20th century. As we have an information based world, we need to architect our organizations in totally different ways. And this is the big differentiator between old style organizations, linear versus exponential organizations. And we now have the data to show that this is a pervasive paradigm that will be around. The book's been out for close to 10 years now. The original exo, which Peter and I kind of collaborated deeply on back then. And so now we've got this definition and a model for how do you organize in a world of exponential technologies. And a global. Great kind of example of this is the music industry. You used to have eight major music studios selling cassettes, selling CDs, selling a scarcity model, $10 an album or whatever. And then you digitize music. All the eight pretty much disappear. And now you have two platforms, iTunes and Spotify, selling you abundance on a subscription model. It's very clear that healthcare, education, transportation, energy will all follow the same path. And we're starting to see it now. Teslas with you'll be picked up and pay per km to be taken somewhere. Uber is kind of broaching the edges of that. So we see industry after industry moving to this new model. And what we've been identifying and gathering the data on is what are the attributes and characteristics of this model.
- [70:25]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
So before we dive too deep into that, I want to go back to this idea of what you call it.
- [70:31]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
Speciation.
- [70:32]
Peter Diamandis
Speciation, yes.
- [70:33]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
So.
- [70:33]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
So there was, as far as I
- [70:36]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
can tell from Elon's own words, there
- [70:37]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
was a bit of a breakup between
- [70:39]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
him and Larry Page where he was.
- [70:41]
Peter Diamandis
I was there really.
- [70:42]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
And so what Elon said was basically when he said that I was being a speciest by saying specist by saying that, you know, I didn't just want to Hand things over to AI.
- [70:56]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
That's where he was like, okay, wait,
- [70:58]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
this has gone too far. And that's why when you said that, that was how I responded was like, what?
- [71:03]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
Whoa. Like, I get it.
- [71:05]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
But there is something uncomfortable about the idea of sort of saying that we're passe. I don't know the right way to that. We're.
- [71:16]
Peter Diamandis
That we're evolving. And we have been and are evolving. We're going from evolution by natural selection, which is Darwinism, to evolution by human direction, by whatever you want to call that. What does that mean? Well, we've been doing it right now. We have been evolving all of our crops, right? We take biology and make it do our bidding. You know, an ear of corn today compared to what it was, you know, 500 years ago, it's ridiculous. The ear of corn looked like a scraggly little.
- [71:50]
Guest (Tech Expert/Scientist)
I don't know, it was one inch long.
- [71:52]
Peter Diamandis
One inch long. And I hear this giant ear of corn or look at these giant strawberries we have, or the species of dogs or the chickens we have. How many chickens are on the planet today?
- [72:00]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
Today, I do not.
- [72:01]
Peter Diamandis
38 billion chickens. Holy moly. Right?
- [72:04]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
Wow.
- [72:04]
Peter Diamandis
Amazing. Anyway, I just. That's an aside. But so we have been evolving everything. We humans have a huge footprint on this planet, and we're evolving ourselves. We're evolving. I mean, I outsource much of my cognitive ability to my phone or chat, GPT or Google, whatever the case might be. And it is happening. You can go. Go and live in the forest and not use any tech if you want, but very few people do that. So what does this mean? If you have a choice to be able to do a number of things to enhance your ability? Right. A lot of my work, as you well know, is in extending the healthy human lifespan. How do I add 20, 30 healthy years of my life to intercept the technologies that's going to reverse our aging? Aging. That's a whole nother conversation. And I believe we're going to get there. But I also want to increase my cognitive capacity. So my phone. I'll hold up my phone here. When I use my phone to do something interesting, like look at images and faces and translate whatever, my phone gathers the information and then it sends the information on the 5G network to the edge of the cloud, where the hard work is done. Done, and the answer comes back to the phone. The processing isn't done necessarily on the phone. It's done on the cloud. And in the same way, right now we have a limited size of our brains 100 billion neurons, 100 trillion synaptic connections. And our brains can't get bigger, otherwise our moms would not give birth to us. But what we can do is we can do the same thing our phones do and send our desires, our interest to the cloud, have it processed and get the answer back. And so that is one future for brain computer interface. Another future is we take our essence and upload it to the cloud. I don't know when.
- [74:01]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
What problem does that solve for you, though?
- [74:02]
Guest (Tech Expert/Scientist)
Well, actually it gives you scale and pace because our brains are limited here, right? And our memories are limited here without any augmentation. And this has been happening actually for about 40 or 50 years. If you look at the Internet, the first thing we did was we put the world's data on the Internet. It's now the memory of the world's world. Now with all the sensors, the Internet has become the nervous system for the world. So we're like basically extending the organism outside the human species into this thing called the Internet as we add more processing and move our brains to it. Now you all have an AI and a totally new speciation type of thing. Now you can get worried about that or afraid of that, or freaked out about it, or you can say natural process has been going on for billions of years. This is just another step in that process.
- [74:42]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
Man, you guys, it's interesting. This really hits you guys differently than it hits me. Okay, so talk to me. I don't intuitively agree about the Internet becoming our nervous system. Help me understand that.
- [74:57]
Guest (Tech Expert/Scientist)
So when you need to remember something, you want a memory. So you want information stored somewhere that you can retrieve. And now with all those servers that we have around the world, we have access. Wikipedia, for example, we have access to the world. The next step, if I step on a nail, a memory doesn't happen. Help me. I need a nervous system to say, lift foot, scream, run for a band aid. So the instant response and the agility of response, you need a nervous system
- [75:22]
Peter Diamandis
for this is Uber. Calling your Uber as part of the nervous system, right? This is sending an email or making a phone call and asking, you know,
- [75:30]
Guest (Tech Expert/Scientist)
or an X Prize team sensing a wildfire and going, quick, put it out right away. Right? So this is.
- [75:36]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
That feels super accurate.
- [75:38]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
Okay.
- [75:38]
Guest (Tech Expert/Scientist)
So real time sensing. And our bodies operate like this. Our bodies, our cells are, have receptors and they're scanning for things. When I think comes why they pick it up. There's a whole bunch of information theory around this.
- [75:49]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
Do you see this happening at the individual level or at the societal level, because the wildfire thing, that feels.
- [75:54]
Guest (Tech Expert/Scientist)
Let me give you a systemic thing.
- [75:56]
Peter Diamandis
We're heading towards a world of a trillion sensors, right? Your phone has dozens of sensors on it right now. An autonomous Waymo. Google's autonomous car driving down the road is, got LIDAR and radar and cameras and it's picking up gigabits of data as it goes down the road. Everything is being imaged, right? So I want you to imagine you're a fashion designer center and you want to decide what your next fashion show should have and what is trending. You could go and ask your AI Listen, look at the cameras on Madison Avenue and tell me what's trending in terms of fashion right now as people are walking down the street. What colors, what hem length, what hats, what, whatever. And now can you correlate that to any kind of ad campaign that's occurred in the last few months to see a signal to noise ratio again? We're heading towards a world where you can know anything you want, anytime you want, anywhere you want. How's that hit you?
- [76:56]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
That one gets me excited. So when I think about. So I think about it from a game developer's standpoint, which is maybe different. I don't know how this plays into what you guys are thinking about, but here's the fantasy that I live in, that the only thing that keeps me awake at night is how quickly someone else is going to do something even cooler. But right now I feel like I have the coolest take on this. This, which is that I'm sure you guys saw Google and Adobe announced core ar, where basically everything that Google has mapped, which is everything but the ocean floor. You can now overlay AR3D assets on that anywhere. And it's only going to get better. Insane. And so my whole thesis on gaming is that it becomes this thing I call borderless entertainment, where you'll hand the game back and forth from the console to reality and back. And so, you know, once we've got our Apple AR glasses, I mean, it
- [77:46]
Peter Diamandis
just will be, by the way, coming soon.
- [77:48]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
Oh, for sure, for sure. Like in the next six months or something?
- [77:50]
Peter Diamandis
No, no, no. June, Monday.
- [77:52]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
Oh, it's announced.
- [77:53]
Guest (Tech Expert/Scientist)
It's announced.
- [77:53]
Peter Diamandis
No, no.
- [77:54]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
Have they actually said it's the glasses
- [77:56]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
though, or just so they have a big announcement?
- [77:57]
Peter Diamandis
No, no, no, no, no. I have, I have a party. I'm going to. To go and grab them and try them. You want to join me?
- [78:05]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
Yes.
- [78:05]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
What?
- [78:06]
Peter Diamandis
Okay.
- [78:06]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
A hundred percent, I want to join you.
- [78:09]
Peter Diamandis
I will. I'm a host.
- [78:09]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
I'M gonna duct tape myself to your shin.
- [78:12]
Peter Diamandis
Okay.
- [78:12]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
To make sure that you behind.
- [78:14]
Peter Diamandis
Okay. You are invited.
- [78:15]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
Wow.
- [78:15]
Guest (Tech Expert/Scientist)
Luckily he has two shins.
- [78:17]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
The other one will leave for you.
- [78:18]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
Oh, no.
- [78:19]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
Yeah, please. I'll give you some duct tape. That's insane. So this is. Yeah, this gets very exciting. So the idea of being able to scan everything, read that data is incredibly interesting when it. When it's humans in control and leveraging it to do something amazing. I love it the most. And I. The way that I see AI, the way that I sort of jokingly explain it, but I'm only half kidding, is that phase one is that there's going to be humans that learn how to use AI, are going to just absolutely smash humans that rebel against it and don't use it. And so I'm certainly trying to be in that camp. Phase two is going to be what I'll call the temporary utopia, where it's like, hey, Abundance, everything's amazing. And then phase three is we're all dead. And we're either all dead because something just goes absolutely horribly wrong and you get. The adversarial system loses one once and the catastrophic thing is so massive or that we're just evolved out of the picture and maybe not in a bad way, maybe it's wonderful and we merge with technology or whatever. It's interesting. I can very easily put on an optimistic hat, but I have to take off my pessimistic hat to do it.
- [79:35]
Peter Diamandis
Yeah. Listen here. First of all, all, let's take this back to reality. We're living in a game. This is, this is a Nth generation simulation. Do you really believe. I really believe that fundamentally just the math says just, just the, just the reality.
- [79:52]
Guest (Tech Expert/Scientist)
I like, I like your framing. You're like, the world is too goddamn interesting for this not to.
- [79:58]
Peter Diamandis
We're at the 99th level of the game right now. And, and the ability. What I've seen. So I introduced you to Imad Mustach, right. And what he's doing at stability and being able to render, getting to a point very soon of rendering photorealistic video experiences that you can go into and live in. And the experiments have been done by Google and Stanford on creating AI bots, instantiating them with a script and a story and letting them live. And, and have you heard about this?
- [80:30]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
No.
- [80:31]
Peter Diamandis
Where they basically created a bunch of AI bots and they put it into a. Call it a digital box and they
- [80:38]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
started like doing birthday parties.
- [80:39]
Peter Diamandis
They started dating and going on getting jobs and do and mimicking the things that we do in life right now. So this is the equivalent of Pong in the early days. So imagine combining these things in the
- [80:51]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
future and you're going to think about,
- [80:52]
Peter Diamandis
you're going to put. Yes, and, and you're going to put AIs that have full capabilities into virtual worlds. And they'll start evolving farming and then metallurgy, and then they'll start printing books and then they'll start making computers and then they'll evolve AI on their own and they'll start involving their own bots inside. So the question is, is this the first time and I think not. We're in a universe of, you know, call it for rough numbers, you know, 14 billion years. Man, oh man.
- [81:28]
Guest (Tech Expert/Scientist)
The Drake Equation. Equation comes into play.
- [81:30]
Peter Diamandis
Yeah.
- [81:31]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
Tell me more.
- [81:31]
Guest (Tech Expert/Scientist)
Well, Frank Drake was a scientist at NASA in the 50s. NASA commissioned him to say, what's the probability of life out there somewhere? So he came up with what's now called the Drake Equation, which was. Okay, take most. Two thirds of star systems seem to be binary. Stars don't host a stable orbit. So ignore Those of the 1/3 that's left. How many might have a planet in a Goldilocks where water doesn't permanently freeze or oil? Let's say that's one out of a million out of those. Maybe one out of a billion gets to a primordial ooze level and one out of a million of those lightning bolt hits and you spark life. One out of a million of those may get to radio technology level, techno radio level technology. And one out of a million of those hasn't wiped itself out with nuclear weapons before it gets to the next stage of escaping the Earth type of thing critical. And so he came up with a bunch of factors saying if you had what's the likelihood of similar carbon based radio technology life forms out in the universe? And that's one of over like billions and billions on the Dominator. However, when you multiply it by the number of stars out there and by the number of galaxies out there, the pessimistic answer is there's 100% chance of radio level carbon based technology life forms out in the universe. The optimistic one is it's actually right in our galaxy. And every time we learn more about the universe, how many stars there are, et cetera, et cetera, turns out there's 100 times more stars that have stable planets around them than we thought. We're discovering planets, every factor turns out to be a thousand times better than we thought. And therefore you really end up with A Fermi paradox of if there's intelligent life out there, why haven't we seen it?
- [83:15]
Peter Diamandis
Yeah. The interesting code, interesting variable on, on the Drake equation was between the time that a intelligent species developed the ability to transmit interstellar. Which is like I Love Lucy leaving the Earth and heading out towards the galaxy. How long would that species exist before something happened to it? The dystopian point of view is that it blows itself up and it's only like 100 years or 50 years and so forth. The positive point of view is that that they transition to where radio is not. It's like we don't use smoke signals anymore because radio is so backwards.
- [83:56]
Guest (Tech Expert/Scientist)
The theory I like the most is called the Transcension Hypothesis by a guy called John Smart who figures we'll get to AR level capability and VR level capability and instead of going out in the universe we go inwards 100%. And I think that's probably like atheist.
- [84:11]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
This strikes me as. And look, AI complicates things dramatically and so folding space time becomes trivial. Maybe what I'm about to say isn't true but it seems self evident to me that once you can attach the nervous system truly like your own nervous system and you can manipulate your neurochemistry that you would create dream states, infinite worlds. Yeah. That you just go inward. Why would you bother projecting out which would take so much more energy.
- [84:39]
Guest (Tech Expert/Scientist)
That's right.
- [84:39]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
And so you just go in and you have these incredible experiences that, that strikes me as.
- [84:46]
Peter Diamandis
Let's go back to your question of purpose now because I link it back to that. And I think purpose is so important for all of us to have. It's driven everything of significance done. But let's say that we end up in a world in which. And one of the implications of exponential organizations are that we have what we call what a friend Harry Clora called technological socialism where technology takes care of you versus the social state. Right. And in that world where you're taking care of what's your purpose? Maybe your purpose is to have fun. Maybe your purpose is to play. Maybe your purpose is to. And this we go back to the Matrix again because without the challenge, you know, the question is, is that empty? You know the old Twilight Zone, right. Where the, where the guy goes to Las Vegas and he's winning all the
- [85:37]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
time and he thinks I know of
- [85:39]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
the Twilight Zone, but I haven't seen the episodes.
- [85:41]
Peter Diamandis
So in this episode this guy dies and go. And he's, he's been a mafioso and he, he's he goes to heaven or hell and he shows up and they're beautiful women every place. He's in a Las Vegas casino and he's winning every night and he's winning and he's winning and he's winning and he's all the riches, anything he wants. 24 7. And it's like amazing, right? His dreams coming true. But like a month later he's like, I am so tired of winning all the time. God, there's nothing challenging. There's nothing. No challenges at all. And he turns and he says, this heaven, man, it's terrible. He goes, what makes you think you're in heaven?
- [86:18]
Guest (Tech Expert/Scientist)
So good.
- [86:19]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
I knew that was a punchline. You still gave me the chills. That's a real thing, man.
- [86:25]
Peter Diamandis
Yeah.
- [86:26]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
And I do think about that the sort of optimal, like, what's that optimal level of friction. And. And there was a really fascinating time in my life in building impact theory where I needed to get good at Japanese style storytelling. So manga and anime. And I was reading manga like a fiend and watching as much anime as I could. I was getting up super early and working out and then watching like an hour, hour and a half of anime. It was awesome. It's one of the most fun times I've had as an adult. The second I felt like I understood the art form, I couldn't, couldn't. I couldn't let myself do it anymore. Like I. I couldn't enjoy it. I was just like, you already understand it now you're just doing it to like pass time doing something that's enjoyable. And it had that same feeling of like winning all the time, where I'm like, this isn't interesting. It needed to be moving towards something. It needed to add up to something.
- [87:16]
Peter Diamandis
Humans like progress.
- [87:17]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
Yeah. Like, this is the very reason that Lisa and I did not buy an island and retire and not engage. It's like I knew I would end up sitting on.
- [87:24]
Peter Diamandis
I can tell you other reasons not to buy an island, by the way.
- [87:27]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
I bet you can.
- [87:28]
Guest (Tech Expert/Scientist)
I mean, look, life is about growth, right? And even if we have plentiful, and today, relatively, we have plentiful, go back a thousand years, we were all spending 28 hours a day in the fields just to put three meals on the table. Right. We've steadily shrunk the amount of time as we move towards probably some structure like a ubi, we then have an equal opportunity to do lots of interesting things. When we've studied abundance, say the Romans taking over and creating the Roman Empire, the Mughals taking Over India and encountering abundance society very clearly goes to four things that they do. Food, art, music and sex. Not in that order. So that's essentially where you will end up. And you end up looking at self expression and the artistic realm much more than you did before, whether in whatever realm you choose. And so it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. And by the way, we've done this for thousands of years, right? Buddhists sit in contemplation, they reach enlightenment and they, they, their, their life is spent contemplating and that's where they get the most joy. And this is something that I think we'll get to as a species.
- [88:31]
Peter Diamandis
I'd like to bring it back to the following. One of the things, one of the reasons we wrote this book is to help entrepreneurs and businesses understand that they can make a much bigger dent in the universe than ever before. And while it's not about making money, it's about how do you build a significant company that is transforming the planet and is making the world a better place. And what we're finding is that there are a number of ways that companies do this reliably with the biggest dent. And so we want to get that information out there. And, and the reality is if you're building a company today, you need to start with this as your playbook in order to succeed because it's table stakes. And if you're running a large scale company, if you don't use these attributes, if you're not using these, you are not going to survive the rest of this decade. You know what I say is there are two kinds of companies by end of this decade. Those that are fully utilizing AI and these exponential technologies and those that are out of business. Business. That's it. It's this decade where all of this is happening. And so we talk about the first step in building an exo is having a massive transformative purpose. And it's going to be that passion driven need to make a difference in the world that's going to carry you through. Doing anything big and bold in the world is hard unless you're driven by awe on one side of the emotional curve or pain on the other side of the emotional curve. Curve. You're going to give up before you
- [90:13]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
get there, no doubt. Yeah, I, when I'm teaching entrepreneurs, I always tell them that success is a game of attrition. Most people give up and you've got to stick it out long enough to figure this out. So that would be the old paradigm, is that. Sorry, go ahead.
- [90:28]
Peter Diamandis
Yeah, I was going to say you Know, in looking at what you're doing and what you've been building in impact theory, you do use a lot of the 10 attributes that follow an MTP, and it'll be fun to actually. Actually see which ones you're cranking on.
- [90:44]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
Yeah, no, MTP is definitely our lead engine. We know what we're doing and we know why we're doing it. And that's a big part of the way that we attract talent, which you guys have talked a lot about, but tying it to this idea of Buddhism. So there, obviously, all of us get to make a choice every day, effectively, as to whether we recognize that all of suffering comes from attachment and desire. And thusly, we go live a monastic life and we remove our, ourselves completely from that stream. Or we say, I'm going to do deep engagement in a way that's thoughtful, in a way where I'm not sort of blindly chasing something. It's not want, it's not greed, but it is very much leveraging the human desire for progress. You talked about that earlier. To see how much I can do with my life. That's something that really drives me, is I just want to see. I feel like I was given sort of an average hand at cars. I want to see how well I can play it. And that's extremely intoxicating for me. It's just like, whoa.
- [91:47]
Guest (Tech Expert/Scientist)
But that's just as powerful. Right. If you're. Let's say you're an enlightened monk, there's two ways of doing it. You can go and meditate forever, or you can go into the world and be of service. And that's a richer path, a harder, much harder path, because you've got to do stuff and interact with the world, which is messy and ugly, and you put yourself at risk and you put stuff out there. But when you can make a major difference in a particular problem, like you are doing, like you're doing, many of our communities are making unbelievable changes and transformation in their societies, their companies, their governments, their countries. This is where the beauty of life comes out. And we think that over the next decade or so, every company, every nonprofit, every government department, every impact project will be structured along these lines of these attributes, because it's just better. And we now have the data to show it. I don't know if you came across the Fortune 100 data that we mentioned. I mean, unbelievable, right? Over a.
- [92:41]
Peter Diamandis
Can you summarize those?
- [92:42]
Guest (Tech Expert/Scientist)
Yeah. So when we wrote the original book, I did a segment on CNBC, Squawk Box, and we ranked the Fortune 100 against the Exo model. So we gauged to what extent is Walmart purpose driven or not? To what extent is IBM using lean startup thinking and experimentation, to what extent is GE decentralizing decision making or not? And we came up with an index ranking these organizations by this model, essentially ranking the purpose driven, scalable, flexible, adaptable quotient of each of these. And the bottom is the least flexible, least adaptable. Over seven years we tracked which 10 used those attributes the most and which used them the least. And then we compared the two. And seven years is a pretty decent long amount of time to account for temporal blips in the stock market, etc. We found that the top 10 most exo friendly compared to the bottom 10 revenue growth was 3 times higher. Profitability was 6.4 times higher.
- [93:36]
Peter Diamandis
Higher.
- [93:36]
Guest (Tech Expert/Scientist)
Return on equity was 11 times higher. But shareholder returns compound annual growth rate was 40 times higher. And literally we had to scour the numbers like four times over because it's just too big. How could this be? Now it's pretty clear that as we enter a more volatile world, your ability to adapt is going to drive market value. We can measure this now completely. Therefore, every organization going forward needs to be architected along this way to deal with the increasing volatility in the world. And the other side of that volatility and disruption is the unbelievable opportunity that's sitting out there, right? And this is where I think the work that you're doing, Peter, is so important because you're non stop showing people the world is unbelievably, abundantly full of opportunity. Freaking go get it. Go have some fun.
- [94:23]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
So walk me through why. Why is, why does adaptation return so much more to shareholders? And what does one have to do to be adaptive?
- [94:35]
Guest (Tech Expert/Scientist)
Okay, so let's take the car industry, right? You're trunking along making combustion engine cars and you're incrementally improving those cars, eight valves to 16 valves. Okay? You add turbo, you add anti lock braking systems, et cetera, et cetera. Along comes Elon with the Tesla and goes totally different parallel. Now you have two choices right there. Do you go, ah, this is a joke, it's never going to work. Look at it. It's like the Kodak camera. The first version is clunky and it doesn't work so well, etc. And you keep trying to do things your old way. Over time you're going to get wiped out because you're not adapting to where the world actually is. There's so many hundreds of reasons why an electric car today is much better than a combustion engine car. Now, it's taken the car industry 10 years. I would argue that until the Taycan came out last year, that the 20, the Porsche Taycan got it. The Porsche electric car. I would argue that the 2012 Tesla Model S was still the most advanced car in the world until the Taycan. Right. So 10 years it took them to respond. Well, the market cap, you can see the result there. The, the unbelievable loss of capability, leading edge thinking, et cetera. And you have the same thing happening in drones and in aircraft and other things. All industries are geared towards the status quo and trying to make incremental. And this is where you devolve to. Meanwhile, you have breakthrough thinking, breakthrough opportunity, and the recent explosion in AI capability just adds a rocket booster to all of that. So now we're going to see new companies emerge that are creating unbelievable value in very, very little time. And if you're a legacy organization, you have to figure this out. And we've actually figured out a toolset for this. We find that we've come up with a 10 week engagement that we've run in big companies that hacks culture at scale and we're able to solve what we call the immune system problem. So when you try anything disruptive in a big company, the antibodies attack you. Finance, legal, hr, branding goes. You can't do that. The general answer in a big company, if you're trying to do anything crazy, is no. And we've learned how to switch that to a yes. And we've done it.
- [96:47]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
Now don't just gloss past it because even so, a company of my size, which contractors, et cetera, et cetera, is a little over a hundred people.
- [96:54]
Guest (Tech Expert/Scientist)
Yeah.
- [96:55]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
And there are times where I want to headbutt my own teammates.
- [96:58]
Guest (Tech Expert/Scientist)
Yes.
- [96:59]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
Because the heuristic we have is if
- [97:02]
Guest (Tech Expert/Scientist)
you're over about 50 people, you have an immune system.
- [97:04]
Peter Diamandis
Yeah, I've had that at the xprize. I've had that every place. Right. Because you're a quick start, you want to try things. And one of the things that's critical that a lot of companies that are built as exos have, they begin with an experimental culture and a data driven culture with dashboards. And the tyranny of confidence isn't given a place to grow.
- [97:26]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
The tyranny of confidence.
- [97:27]
Peter Diamandis
What do you mean? The tyranny of confidence is where I'm confident I know the right answer versus let's run the experiment and see what the right answer is. Because we've lived in this as Humanity, you hire the expert, you hire the guy who's or gal who's been in a competitor and you bring them in and you base what you're doing on their, on their experience level. But that is so limited compared to the world we're living in today. And so how do you build a data driven experimentalist organization? I had one other feature on top of that, which is a founder led company. So you get companies like Tesla and SpaceX or Amazon, where you got, you know, where Jeff Bezos in his very famous shareholder letter of like 208, whatever it was, says I'm not going to optimize for profitability, I'm optimizing for growth. And if you don't like it, invest someplace else. Right. So how do you have that kind of, you know, benevolent dictatorship? That's where you're then looking at the data to decide, not the way all your competitors are doing, doing it.
- [98:39]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
Given the state of AI and quantum computing, do you think that we're on the brink of human immortality?
- [98:47]
Peter Diamandis
I think we're on the brink of a health span revolution. The immortality comes when we can scan the brain and upload you into the cloud.
- [98:54]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
You think that's the only way we have to transcend biology?
- [98:57]
Peter Diamandis
People have to realize we're constantly replenishing all of the cells of our body anyway, right? Like the oldest cells in your body are your fat cells that are an average of 8 years old. Given AI, given quantum technology, we're going to start, start to understand why we age, how to slow it, stop it, maybe reverse it. And I think those things will get us north of 100 years. The bowhead whale, the largest mammal, can live 200 years. Greenland shark can live 500 years and have pups at 200 years old. And the question is, if they can live that long, why can't we? And for me, it's either a hardware problem or a software problem. And we're getting the tools, tools to be able to deal with and edit our software, edit our hardware. And for people who are saying, well, am I going to be part of that? Am I going to live for hundreds of years? Am I going to have the chance to be immortal? I'm going to put aside the immortal part again. I think your mission should be how do I live long enough, healthfully enough to intercept the breakthroughs that are coming, coming, right? So it's interesting, someone asked me a question like, how long do you want to live?
- [100:07]
Guest (Tech Expert/Scientist)
Right.
- [100:07]
Peter Diamandis
And I remember when I was in medical school, I, I set a, like a, a 700 year lifespan, which is a ridiculous number. It's ridiculous because if I can live, I think another 30 years from now, the breakthroughs we're going to see are going to buy you the next 30 or 100 years. So your goal is to live long enough to intercept what's called longevity, escape a lot.
- [100:30]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
Yeah, that to me is, feels very plausible when I think about the magic trick that is AI. Yeah, walk me through what you think is the rough timeline. And, and I fully acknowledge that looking into the future when you're talking about something as revolutionary as AI becomes a little bit comical. But I think that it helps to map how you think about, about how this is going to work, like what the problems are that we're going to solve. Where's the intersection of AI and quantum computing? You're the only one I really hear talking about that and its importance in this revolution. What is it about quantum computing you think is going to help? Are there qualities of AI that are only going to be possible with quantum computing? What are the next steps?
- [101:18]
Peter Diamandis
Let me define first of all lifespan and healthspan. So lifespan is how long you live, how long you, your heart is beating, how long your brain is processing. Healthspan is how long you've got the vital energy to enjoy life. You know, get up in the morning, play with your kids, your grandkids, go for a hike, enjoy yourself, have the mental, physical vitality. Right? That's health span and that's really what we want. You know, if someone says I don't want to live to 120 years old, it's because they have a mental image of being in a wheelchair. Drink ruling. Right? That's not, we're speaking about here. If I said to you at 120 your mind was as sharp as that ever was. You could, you know, hit the ground and do 40 push ups and you know, would you want to live to 120? And I think anybody who is, who is loving life would say yes. So that's our goal. It's, it's that level of vitality. So AI, AI is going to play in this by helping us understand such a complicated situation. So why do some people live to 100 or 115 or 120 and smoke, you know, and still get that far out, right? Why some people, other people die at 50 or 60. And I think aging is, and, and human biology is so complicated that we're still deciphering it, we're still untangling this, this process. And there's so much Data we can now get, and we've talked about, you know, one of my companies, Fountain Life, is sort of like the most advanced diagnostics you can do. So when I go to Fountain Life, and we've got centers around the US I will be digitally uploaded. So in the course of a day, I will have a full body mri, an MRI of my brain, brain vasculature, brain blood flow, a coronary CT looking for soft plaque, DEXA scan, 120 blood biomarkers, metabolome microbiome, your genetics, everything. So it's 150 gigabytes of data. And that data, over the course of thousands of individuals can only be analyzed by AI. But then we can start to say, look, the people who were the healthiest and didn't have disease, or we can look at presymptomatic disease and the people who developed this over time had this genetic sequence or had these blood biomarkers. It's the incorporation of massive data aggregation and AI that's going to help us understand why some people survive and thrive and others don't. And then what are the therapeutics? Look at everybody who took rapamycin or metformin or, you know, was on, you know, whatever drug combinations. It's so complicated. But we're running this massive experiment and AI is going to help us to untangle that and get some insight and say yes. For your genetics, for your age, for your objectives, these meds, these supplements are the best for you, right? That's one of the things I'm really working to build out for myself and our members at Fountain Life. Is that kind of a correlation, like what you want to do in life, your upload, your genetics, number of pills you will intake per day. This is the right combination for you?
- [105:06]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
Yeah, I think N of 1 is going to be a big part of this. Okay, I'm going to lay out my thesis. Okay, Tell me where I go wrong, please. So, one, I want to say that I come at this the way that a sci fi writer would come at it. So I understand enough of it to get the gist and to be able to prognosticate. The specifics will be filled in by people that really know the science. But the way way I see this playing out is that, okay, we need. This is a game of pattern recognition. There is a reason recognition, right? There is a reason why we age. So step one is going to be by, I think by getting into synthetic data very, very quickly. So we'll upload whatever the first 10,000, 100,000 people that go through something like fountain life and we begin to speak the language of DNA, let's say. And we'll probably need to feed into the AI, not just human DNA, but across all kinds of species, feed it as much DNA as we can. It goes in, it learns the language of DNA, it begins to feed itself data and begin to try to predict different outcomes based on, okay, this environment with this genetic code, this drug interaction, whatever, again, looking for the massive amount of data, but trying to parse out the different patterns in it so that it can isolate what the problem is. Now, with my very sort of layman understanding of all of this, my again, just guess at this point is that what's really going on is the epigenome is where all this breaks down. You know, David Sinclair study as well as I do, which showed that even if you breed a mouse to just get massive amount of breaks in its DNA over time, the DNA still looks the same. Like we are able to repair the DNA. It isn't what we used to think it was, which is you're getting these mutations in the DNA over time and the DNA is effectively getting corrupted. But something is happening. And so if that something is the epigenome where we're just, we're mistagging it, again, this is my layman's explanation of how this works. But they're going in and putting in the wrong bookmarks for people that don't know how this works. Your DNA is basically really tightly wound and a little bit of it gets exposed to say, I'm an eye cell, I'm a skin cell, I'm a heart cell, whatever. And as you age, age, you're de differentiating. And so your eye cell maybe now isn't purely an eye cell because parts of the DNA are unraveling. So it's a little bit of a skin cell, a little bit of a hard cell, a little bit of an eye cell. And so now this is where the function begins to degrade over time. If the AI can figure out, okay, cool, that really is the problem. This is exactly what's going on. Here are the Yamanaka factors or whatever that you need to
- [107:48]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
put to work,
- [107:49]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
work to rewind the cell so that it resets. And so now we're getting the bookmarks in all the right places. That part, once that's figured out, again, I, my gut instinct is that's going to be handled through the, the AI using quantum computing to be able to crunch just an unbelievable amount of synthetic data. So we don't have. Because if you have to feed in millions or billions of people. Like, I just worry that that's going to take way too long for somebody of my age. But if we can do this via synthetic data, then the odds that it goes faster go way up.
- [108:27]
Peter Diamandis
Yeah.
- [108:28]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
Where's, where's the flaw in thinking?
- [108:30]
Peter Diamandis
Listen, you know, when I was in medical school, I don't know, 35 years ago, I went arguably to the best medical university and engineering schools on the planet. And none of this was being talked about. Right. All of this is really, this entire conversation station is the last five, six years and it's moving very fast. It was heresy. Before I talk about longevity or age reversal. And now it's one of the hottest subjects on the planet because it's the biggest marketplace. I mean, you know, what would you not pay for an extra 20 or 30 health years of life? So, yes, we are. To echo what you said, if you think about it, each of us get 3.2 billion billion nucleotides are our genome, 3.2 billion letters from our mom and from our dad. And you've got that same genome when you're born, when you're 20, when you're 50, when you're 100, maybe when you're 150. But why don't you look the same if you've got the exact same instruction set? Why don't you have a, you know, a 12 pack, if that's a thing, or six pack, whatever, when you're 80, like you had when you were 20?
- [109:43]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
That one I can answer. But the face I think is because this six pack has everything to do with your lifestyle. If you're just.
- [109:49]
Peter Diamandis
But, but if you were. Okay, I mean, my point simply being is why don't you have the physique or the ability to build muscle or everything of your youth when you're 100? Why is there a difference? And it isn't your genome, it isn't your, your 3.2 billion letter instructions said it is what you just said a minute ago, your epigenome. EPI for the Greek word for above. And it's the control system. And, and you're right. When you're, when you're just born or when you're 10 or when you're 20, when you're 80, different genes are on and different genes are off, and the epigenome is the control of which genes are on and which genes are off at the highest level. Level it is the control of the genes for skin are on in your skin cells. And the gene for your hepatocytes are on in your liver. And so there are different cells. They've differentiated, turning certain, silencing certain genes and saying, you're not. Your genes aren't needed here in the skin cell. You don't need to be, you know, purifying out urine, right? And so as you age, what apparently is going on is that the control of which genes are on and which genes are off are beginning to blur. And as you're getting older, the genes that should be off are turned on or the genes that should be on are turned off. I'll give you an example. Skin, the supple skin of. Of a child, of a newborn, right? Part of what's going on is we have something like 23 collagen genes, and we express multiple collagen molecules that make your skin give it the texture and so forth. But as you grow older, we begin to silence some of those genes. And so the collagen molecules of the 23, maybe only eight or nine are expressed. And so you start to get wrinkles and your skin starts to look that of an old person. But can you turn them back on? So one of the companies, my venture fund, Bold Capital, is an investor in his marble biome, and it's using genetic engineering, epigenetic reprogramming, to turn back on those genes, right? To give. To take back the look and feel of your skin 30 years. So can we do that across multiple parts of the body? Can we rejuvenate you in that regard? And that is one of the. Definitely one of the hottest topics out there right now. Can we turn back the clock? And. And in December 2020, David Sinclair wrote a very famous paper in which he demonstrated turning back the clock in the retinal visual systems of mice, basically reprogramming the epigenome to go back to where it was earlier. Earlier and giving mice that had lost their vision renewed vision. And one of his companies, Life Biosciences, is now doing that in primates, right? And once they've already done it, they're already. They're doing in primates right now.
- [113:05]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
And have they shown that it has the same retinal impact or.
- [113:08]
Peter Diamandis
I believe they have. And, you know, we're then a fraction of a step away from human. Humans, right? So this is the hot conversation of epigenic reprogramming on one element, AI on the other. And I really fundamentally believe that we're within striking distance to making a dent in human aging. And, I mean, that's why you and I are here in this moment. We Just announced our, our 101 million dollar Healthspan X prize, challenging teams around the world. It's the largest prize ever in human history, challenging teams to restore function in muscle, immune and cognition. Hopefully this is a age reversal therapeutic that teams will deliver. We're just looking at three systems. The, you know, if, if the teams going after this healthspan X Prize are doing something that at the root cause is hitting aging, then they're likely to hit aging throughout the body. We're only going to measure immune, muscle and cognition because those are easy to measure. And for me, as I get older, I want to have the immunity to fight infectious disease and cancer. I want to have, you know, the muscular vitality to, to, you know, hike and play with my great grandchildren. Right. And the cognition to be sharp for decades to come.
- [114:48]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
Okay, so one of the things that I care deeply about is the timing of all of this.
- [114:53]
Peter Diamandis
Yeah, me too, buddy.
- [114:53]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
So with, with the prize, they have seven years, right?
- [114:58]
Peter Diamandis
So we announced this now in one month that we had November, December of 23, and it's a seven year time frame.
- [115:08]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
Seven years. Do you think that.
- [115:09]
Peter Diamandis
I think I set seven years originally because if an X prize, you know, the original X prize, the first one I launched back in 1996, was a $10 million prize for space flight. And again, these X prizes are not for a paper study, they're not for an idea. A team has to actually demonstrate the thing and then they get money and they keep their ip. The world gets the benefit. And the first x Prize took eight years. It was launched in 1996. It was won in 2004 when Burt Rutan, backed by Paul Allen, built SpaceShipOne that Richard Branson then bought the rights to and created Virgin Galactic. And since then, our prizes have typically taken anywhere from two to eight years. We had one prize, a $30 million dollar race to the moon that Google funded. It was at a 10 year horizon. It did not get one. It got shut down though. Two of the teams actually made it to the moon shortly thereafter, but crashed on landing.
- [116:16]
Guest (Tech Expert/Scientist)
Interesting.
- [116:17]
Peter Diamandis
But they still, you know, got to lunar orbit and still made there, which is a big, big deal. A Japanese team and an Israeli team. So by setting a deadline on a prize, you force teams to actually do something versus sit back if it's there forever. They'll take, you know, the race element does help them accelerate. But a deadline, when you're facing a deadline, you're going to, you're going to take even more aggressive action. So seven years for me felt the right Length. The second thing is one of, you know, our. Our largest donor in this prize is a group called Hevolution, which is based. It's a global nonprofit based out of Riyadh and out of the US and Saudi Arabia. Has a 2030 vision of really, they have a lot of projects culminating in the year 2030. And it just so happened that that is the culmination of this prize as well. So 2030 works from that perspective as well.
- [117:20]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
When I think about. About AI and the rate of advancement. So I come at things from a entertainment perspective. And when I look at what's happened in the last 11 months, quite frankly, it hasn't even been a full year that I've been paying attention to text, to video. The, the leaps are pure insanity.
- [117:40]
Peter Diamandis
It is. It's insane. I was just looking at IMOD's latest stability AI, which is fast as you're typing.
- [117:47]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
Yeah.
- [117:48]
Peter Diamandis
You know, there's an ape with an orange on its head hanging from a, you know, bouncing on a trampoline. And as soon as you add words, the images are changing. It's insane.
- [117:57]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
It's crazy.
- [117:57]
Peter Diamandis
It's. We're a micro step away from. From Hollywood, you know, movies being produced by describing them in words. Yeah.
- [118:05]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
Given the rate of change on. In the last 11 months, I'm going to guess in the next five years you will see commercials and things done entirely just text, video, like it.
- [118:19]
Peter Diamandis
I think it's the next two years, five years.
- [118:21]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
I mean, it certainly could be in the next three, just given the amount of UI changes they'll have to do. My gut instinct is that you're. You're looking at at least three years, but.
- [118:30]
Peter Diamandis
Yeah.
- [118:32]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
So when I think about the advancements in longevity, when I look at what humans have been able to do just in the last 10 years, it's already incredible. When you slap AI onto that, then it gets nuts. What do you think is going to be the contribution of quantum computers? How real is that right now?
- [118:48]
Peter Diamandis
Yeah. So it's. We're in the early days of quantum computing, to be clear. Right. Quantum computing is a complicated subject which I'm not going to do service to, to be very clear. Right. So classical computing is basically computing that uses ones and zeros on integrated circuit and a typical, you know, typical binary language. Quantum computing uses qubits that are basically. Can be anything, a zero or one or every. Anything between a zero and a one. And what we find is it. It really represents the real world world. We're living in a quantum world. We're not Living in a binary digital world. We, we model the world using very advanced binary systems. We model on a molecular level. So, for example, DeepMind, which is part of Alphabet now, right. Which created a, a program called AlphaFold. And AlphaFold, I remember when I was in medical school, or when I was, maybe I was an undergrad at MIT at the time. The big grand challenge of the time is could you predict how a protein would fold? So a protein is the basic building structure of the body. It's a structural material. It's an enzyme, it's muscle tissue. It's. It is a sequence of amino acids. There are 23 essential amino acids here. These amino acids, when they're assembled in a ribosome, read from DNA to RNA to a protein. The sequence of amino acids that are like Lego blocks strung together begin to fold into a very predictable 3D structure, structure. And that 3D structure is everything. That 3D structure determines what that protein does, how it functions, how it interacts in a, you know, in a antibody. And it was always considered if you could go from an amino acid sequence, like I can tell you the sequence of the amino acids in this, in this thousand amino acid sequences, and if you could tell me how it would fold, that would be the most incredibly powerful predictive engine on the planet. And it was a supercomputing problem. And it was a couple years ago now that AlphaFold, an algorithm out of DeepMind, cracked that problem. And it was able to go from an amino acid sequence to predicting a protein within a single atomic diameter. Accuracy. Whoa. And then it went on to predict every protein and how it folds in the human body. And then meta created their own version of that and was able to predict every protein in the biological ecosystem. Like, it's gone insanely fast, right? So now we can start to design proteins versus just, just find out what nature. We want a protein that is a certain shape that interacts with a certain like, you know, key and lock on the surface of a cell. But that's all being done in binary. That's all being done with AI algorithms operating on GPUs at a atomic, molecular level. We are quantum systems. And the belief is that quantum computers will be able to enable us to model what's going on, on at a much higher level of fidelity, much faster, and so that we can start to understand the fundamental elements of how life itself works in a much deeper way and start to model things. You know, I don't know what, what factor to use trillions of times faster than a classical computer because it Takes a lot of energy and a lot of time to model things, but Quantum is going to be able to model chemistry and model biology at lightning speeds. So I believe we're going to see, you know, 20, 23, 2024. We're seeing the inflection point of AI
- [123:30]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
were.
- [123:30]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
What does that mean?
- [123:31]
Peter Diamandis
It mean, means we're, we're seeing AI growing at, unbelievable speeds. What you said, Earl, a few minutes ago, that it's like, it's, it's awesome. It's, it's, it's unbelievable how fast it's moving. And, and typically an inflection point is like, it's a slow, slow, you know, like AI. So AI began. The first conversations in AI were in 1956 at Dartmouth University. A group of a dozen people came together to talk about this idea of can we model intelligence in like a
- [124:07]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
summer trying to do it right.
- [124:09]
Peter Diamandis
They, to try and get the theories and think through it. Right. And then neural networks were proposed not very long after that. But we didn't have the computational power until this past decade to actually start to put these algorithms into play. And so while AI is what, 56, you know, 60, 70 years old, it's only now that we're seeing this massive inflection. It's the knee of the curve. It's the point where its speed is so fast. Right. And now we're going to start to see AI programming AI and it becomes self referential and accelerates even faster. So quantum is still slow. It meaning we're getting systems, we're beginning to learn how to utilize it. We have, there's like two or three public quantum compute companies. A friend, I don't know if you know Jack. Hmm. Jack is my board of trustees at xprize. He spun out of Google a company called Sandboxaq.
- [125:15]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
Yes, Right.
- [125:16]
Peter Diamandis
Eric Schmidt's the chairman and Jack is the CEO. And A stands for AI and Q stands for quantum. And it's a company that's really bringing together AI and quantum computing. And his belief is it's going to be most impactful in a few key areas. And biology and chemistry is one of
- [125:42]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
those key areas is that to me is really fascinating. The fact that we're going to be able to manipulate the building blocks of biology is pretty crazy. Where do you think that our ability to predict the folding of proteins goes? How do we use that?
- [126:01]
Peter Diamandis
What kinds of it? So now the question becomes, what drug do you want in order to handle certain situations? So we're going, you know, drug discovery up until now has been, you Go in the Amazon forest and you forage for different leaves and, and, and stuff and you take it back to the lab and you see what you got. Right. Like rapamycin, which is one of the longevity medications out there. Not to go into detail about it, but it was discovered in a soil sample from Easter island, which is known as Rapan Gooey. And that rapamycin got its name from that. So this random process of like just finding stuff and, and trying to purify it and see if it has an effect on anything is going to go. We're going to flip the model to saying okay, what exactly do we want to interact with this receptor on this cell or block this chemical process inside of the mitochondria? And we're going to design it and then we'll see does it interact with anything else. We're going to start to create, create Inilico models. Right. Compute computer models of cells at. In high fidelity to understand what's going on and how you want to tweak it.
- [127:20]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
Do we already have the ability to manufacture this stuff or.
- [127:23]
Peter Diamandis
Absolutely, 100%. And it's. And, and there's a company called In Silica Medicine, Alex Zov, who is a CEO there is a friend, my venture fund's an investor. Full disclosure. Um, and they have in silico medicine is as the name says, we're going to create medicines in simulation on computers and then manufacture it and then show that it works. And they have drugs in phase two or phase three. Right. Now that we're designing a computer for a particular medical condition and it's working out, how does drug discovery work exactly?
- [128:06]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
Using AI
- [128:10]
Peter Diamandis
you're going to understand a molecular process inside a cell that is causing a disease. And you're going to say this particular molecule is, is a waste product that's accumulating that is causing this disease. And can we create a, a protein that might go bind that molecule in a highly accurate fashion that when it's bound, blocks the disease from occurring and allows your immune system to clear it? Right. So we're going to start, start to, to tinker with and the question then becomes is, does that molecule you've designed to block particular reaction or waste product, does it have a secondary negative effect that you don't want? Right. So you're still going to go through clinical trials to determine that there's no downside of that.
- [129:18]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
Will that be more of a. We have to do it but in reality we've already run the simulation six ways a Sunday inside.
- [129:27]
Peter Diamandis
There will be a point in the future. So for example, when SpaceX launched the Dragon capsule to the space station for the first time, it worked, it worked perfectly. They're great engineers, but the reason it worked fantastic is they had a highly accurate computer model of the entire system. And so they modeled it in high fidelity and it performed like the model said. And so, for example, more recently we see starship making serial advances as it's going towards orbit. Of course the crisis news network and all the media say, oh, starship fail. Like bullshit. It was an amazing incremental success. You know, the, the first ship got to a certain point, the second ship got further, the third one will probably work perfectly because those ships are, are highly instrumented and all the data is coming back and the data is being used to advance the models and saying, aha, this is actually what was going on. And so let's change this engine or this structure, entity. And we're going to start to do the same thing in biology, which we're going to start to gather enough data and instrument and understand what's going on, where we can eventually get to a point where we have a highly accurate model of the human cell. And not just a cell, but maybe it's an organ, maybe it's a thousand cells or a billion cells. And we're going to know that this particular designed protein or medicine, whatever it might be, works perfectly. And we'll get to a point where you don't need to go through a massive clinical trial. How far is that away? It's probably not the next five or 10 years, but it is probably 20 to 30 years out. But the cost of these. Right. And then by the way, this drug works for me, not for you. By the way, do you know, I don't know the exact number, but it's pathetic. When a drug is approved by the FDA and you take your, you're prescribed that drug, what percentage of time the drug actually works for you?
- [131:51]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
I've heard this before. It's either 40% of the time it works or 60 of the time.
- [131:55]
Peter Diamandis
No, it's like, it's like under 20.
- [131:57]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
No way.
- [131:58]
Peter Diamandis
Yeah, it's, it's. And I, I'll, I want to check that number. So I have it. But it's the, when a drug goes through the drug discovery process, you know, the first goal is do no harm.
- [132:15]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
Yes.
- [132:16]
Peter Diamandis
And by the way, most of the drug discovery process for the last century has been done in, or safety trials have been done in men only.
- [132:25]
Guest (Skeptical/Philosophical Commentator)
Yep.
- [132:26]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
There's a good reason for that though.
- [132:27]
Peter Diamandis
Well, the reason was that drug companies didn't want to deal with menses and menopause and so forth. Right? It was inconvenient.
- [132:36]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
There's just so much, so many more complications.
- [132:39]
Peter Diamandis
But what happened was when drugs were taken off the market because they failed, it was because they hadn't tested them in women. Because you. I mean, why assume that this drug that we developed for a particular condition that was safe in men is also safe in women anyway? So first is do no harm and then does it work? And when the FDA approves a drug, it worked in enough people that it was worth approving, but it doesn't work at 100% the current circumstances and it's a minority number and I'll have to check on that.
- [133:18]
Host (Entrepreneur/Interviewer)
That's it for part one of our conversation with Peter Diamandis. But there is so much more ahead, so buckle in. Make sure that you join us for part two, where we dive into quantum computing, disruptive innovation, and Peter's bold predictions for the future.
- [133:35]
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