The Middle East Is Destabilizing Faster Than Anyone Predicted, Political Poker: Trump, the Draft, Voting Laws, and Immigration Policy, and 5 More Headlines YOU Need to Know This Week | Weekly Recap

Summary

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Podcast Summary: Impact Theory – Middle East Chaos, Political Power Plays, and the Headlines Shaping America (March 15, 2026)

Episode Theme:
Tom Bilyeu and guests break down the week's most pivotal headlines, offering sharp analysis on geopolitical turmoil (especially in the Middle East), U.S. political maneuvering, media narratives, and culture shifts. The episode explores the destabilizing developments in the Middle East, the ramifications of U.S. policies at home and abroad, and critical undercurrents shaping modern America.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. French Paternity Laws and the Meme-ification of Headlines

• Topic: Rumors about paternity testing being illegal in France spark discussion.
• Insight: Drew jokes about meme-driven headlines, noting the legal ban on private paternity tests in France (with heavy fines and potential jail time).
• Tom Bilyeu’s take (01:44):

  “Whenever somebody says you can't know the truth about something, I am irate. You must be joking. I want to move to France just to protest that. I'm... it is grotesque that I am part French hearing this.”

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2. Trump’s $300 Billion Energy "Win" and U.S. Energy Independence

• Topic: Trump’s announcement of a massive refinery deal in Brownsville, Texas, the largest in U.S. history.
• Insight:
  • Drew reads Trump’s celebratory post about restoring U.S. energy dominance with an Indian partnership.
  • Tom interrogates the environmental and economic aspects, credits China’s solar push while advocating U.S. energy independence during the transition.
• Notable quote (03:23):

  “…We should be focused on [solar]. We should be racing towards that in the same way that China is…But while we do that transition, we should be making sure that we're energy independent. And if that means spinning oil refineries so that we're not reliant on the Middle east, way better situation…It's not my favorite kind of manufacturing to bring back to the US but I'll take it.” — Tom Bilyeu

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3. Media Narratives: CNN’s Framing of Domestic Terror

• Topic: CNN’s initial misleading framing of an anti-Muslim bomb attack in NYC and its subsequent retraction.
• Insight:
  • Tom slams media manipulation and narrative framing, likening it to rewriting events to fit a softer, misleading story.
• Quote (05:33):

  “This is like writing about 9/11: ‘Seven hijackers were enjoying a wonderful warm day in September in the city when suddenly their lives were changed as they crashed planes into a building.’ It's like, what are you doing?” — Tom Bilyeu

• Message: Be vigilant about how media and political figures spin information, regardless of their alignment.

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4. Political Appointments and the Air Force Controversy

• Topic: Trump appoints Erika Kirk to the U.S. Air Force Academy Board following her husband Charlie’s assassination.
• Insight:
  • Both Tom and Drew question her (and previously Charlie's) qualifications.
• Quote (07:30):

  “What the [expletive] does she know about the Air Force? I literally don't understand. So what's the messaging around this?” — Tom Bilyeu

• Context: Emphasizes optics and morale, not expertise, in high-profile appointments.

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5. YouTube's Unstoppable Dominance in Media

• Topic: YouTube surpassing legacy media in ad revenue.
• Insight:
  • Tom notes YouTube’s immense cultural entrenchment and adaptability.
• Quote (08:45):

  “They are so powerful. People don't understand. Like, YouTube has become a part of the fabric of people's everyday life… it is infinite TV channels that every niche is so deep and so specific, it's crazy.” — Tom Bilyeu

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6. Military Draft Discussion and "Political Poker"

• Topic: The prospect of a new military draft amidst Middle East escalations; Carol discusses Trump’s refusal to take any options off the table.
• Insight:
  • Tom frames it as political risk: “Telling the American people that you are not going to remove a draft… there’s a one-to-one with poll numbers going down on that.” (13:51)
  • Discusses public perception and the complexity of real-time historical judgment.
• Perspective:
  • Trump’s transformational leadership could be viewed as either catastrophe or strategic genius with “100 years of distance.”

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7. Trump’s Policy Gambles: Save America Act and Voter ID

• Topic: Trump refuses to sign other bills without voter ID legislation.
• Insight:
  • Tom points out this is a high-popularity issue (polls showing bipartisan support) and reveals how leaders spend political capital.
• Quote (16:32):

  “Your politicians are not working for you…American people want there to be ID for voting, just full stop. They support it. It's...upper 70s [percent] for Democrats.” — Tom Bilyeu

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8. Immigration, Demographics, and Economic Stress

• Topic: Voting patterns, welfare dependence, and the economic impact of immigration (both legal and illegal).
• Insight:
  • Tom stresses need for critical fact-checking and separates short-term vs. long-term economic impacts.
• Quote (18:05):

  “…the census counts anybody living in the state. So it doesn't matter whether they're legal or illegal. None of that matters at all…illegal aliens are per household more likely to be on welfare of all kinds than Americans…” — Tom Bilyeu

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9. The Strait of Hormuz: Strategic Choke Point in the Iran War

• Topic: Attacks on shipping in this vital oil route signal deepening crisis.
• Details (20:42):
  • Three ships struck, one heavily damaged, insurance rates soar, Iran issues new threats to US/Israeli economic interests.
• Quote (20:42):

  “The world's oil supply literally just got choked a little harder…this is one of the heaviest days of attacks on shipping since the war in Iran began.” — Tom Bilyeu

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10. Asymmetric & Decentralized Warfare: Why the Middle East is so Hard to Stabilize

• Topic: Iran’s decentralized military confounds typical U.S. strategies.
• Insight:
  • Tom compares to “a well-armed headless chicken that can't be stopped…If Trump is going to have an exit from this war, there has to be somebody you can talk to.” (25:34)
  • New Supreme Leader’s status is unclear; situation is volatile, with decentralized command making negotiations almost impossible.

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11. Escalation, U.S. Military Readiness, and the Propaganda Wars

• Topic: Satellite images show losses of key U.S. radar/defense systems in the region.
• Insight:
  • Tom sorts through real vs. exaggerated damage:
    “Whatever damage they're doing to US bases, to our allies…it’s going to be less than we're doing to them. So both sides are being degraded…these hits ain't coming cheap, man.” (29:07, 31:45)
  • War remains unpredictable and could escalate further if key infrastructure is lost.

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12. The Scope of U.S. Military Ambitions: Iran, Venezuela, Cuba, Mexico, Ecuador

• Topic: Trump campaigned on "no new wars" but is deeply entangled in multiple international crises.
• Insight:
  • Tom outlines possible “transformational” outcomes if the strategy leads to stabilization and economic renewal, but admits: “Now that we’re in it, though, admittedly it makes me deeply uncomfortable because everything is so destabilized and when you’re in this, it could just break bad so fast…But what a gamble.” (33:00–34:20)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Media Spin (05:33):

  “This kind of thing is so ridiculous that I can't believe how naked it's become…just blatant manipulation. And so just remember, your favorite politician is doing this to you.”

• On War Strategy (25:34):

  "The decentralized military...runs the risk of becoming essentially a well armed headless chicken that can't be stopped from running around and spraying blood on everything."

• Historical Perspective (13:51):

  “Imagine having 100 years of distance from this moment and what this will look like, because at that point, it’s just all outcomes.” — Tom Bilyeu

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• [01:10] France’s Paternity Testing Laws & Media Memes
• [02:04] Trump’s $300B Oil Refinery Deal & Energy Policy
• [05:06] CNN’s Controversial Framing of Domestic Terror Event
• [07:17] Trump Appoints Erika Kirk; Qualifications Debate
• [08:27] YouTube Surpasses Legacy Media Power
• [12:10] Discussion of the Potential Draft & Political Risks
• [16:01] Trump’s All-In on Voting Laws (Save America Act)
• [18:05] Immigration, Demographics, and Economic Stress
• [20:21] Strait of Hormuz, Iranian Attacks, Oil Market Fallout
• [24:46] Iran’s Decentralized Military: U.S. Dilemma
• [28:28] U.S. Military Losses, Radar Hits, and Info Warfare
• [32:43] Scope of U.S. Military Operations, Global Gamble

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Tone and Approach

The episode maintains an urgent, no-nonsense tone, balancing skepticism, factual inquiry, and Tom’s ever-present drive for truth. Guests interact with quick wit and a sense of skeptical humor, while emphasizing the stakes and uncertainty of world events.

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Summary

This episode of Impact Theory is a whirlwind tour through the chaos of today’s geopolitical landscape. Tom Bilyeu and his team cut through memes, media spin, and political posturing to lay bare the realities (and uncertainties) underlying the headlines—from France to Texas, New York to Tehran, and back to D.C. Major themes include narrative control, the risks of U.S. policy gambles, the unpredictable reality of global power struggles, and the importance of media literacy in a world shaped as much by perception as by fact.

Transcript

[Tom Bilyeu]

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[Drew]

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[Tom Bilyeu]

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[Drew]

All right, I got some quick hits for us to jump around and cover. There's been a lot of news stories that happen. I ended up grabbing the mean meme of this headline. I forgot the actual headline because you know me, I'm here for the jokes.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Drew's meme first.

[Drew]

Yes, I'm always mean first. French women. What is she at such a level that paternity tests are illegal because how it would destroy the French society if the woman were held accountable for their actions.

[Tom Bilyeu]

No way. That can't be true.

[Drew]

This is a framing. This is a framing. So that's why it's funny. But France did ban fraternity testing.

[Tom Bilyeu]

That can't be true.

[Drew]

I'm telling you. I just can't find actual articles because

[Tom Bilyeu]

I was laughing at these.

[Drew]

I would doubt private paternity tests are illegal in France.

[Tom Bilyeu]

I don't know if that changes anything with the headline. Private paternity tests are illegal and it

[Drew]

results in up to a 15,000 fine and one year in prison.

[Tom Bilyeu]

What?

[Drew]

You can't yet do a behind your wife's bet.

[Tom Bilyeu]

I am so triggered right now. Whenever somebody says you can't know the truth about something, I am irate. You must be joking. I want to move to France just to protest that. That is. I'm. I am group. It is grotesque that I am part French hearing this. I can't. I can't abide this. That is so crazy.

[Drew]

Trump just announced a really big win yesterday. A $300 billion deal. This is from his True social account. America's returning to real energy dominance. Today, I am proud to announce the America first refinery is opening the first new US oil refinery in 50 years in Brownsville, Texas. This is a historic $300 billion deal, the biggest in US history, a massive win for American workers.

[Tom Bilyeu]

And if anyone ever seen anything like it.

[Drew]

Drew, nobody's ever seen anything like this.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Never. Can't imagine.

[Drew]

Thank you to our partners in India and their largest privately held energy company, Reliance, for this tremendous investment is because of our America first agenda. Streamlining permits and lowering taxes that have attracted billions of dollars in deals coming back to our nation. A new refinery at the port of Brownsville will fuel U.S. markets, strengthen our national security, abuse American oil production, deliver billions of dollars in economic impact, and will be the cleanest refinery in the world. It will power global exports and bring thousands of long overdue jobs and grow to a region that des. This is what American energy dominance looks like. As always, America First.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Yeah. So admittedly, halfway through that tweet, he was just flirting with me. Lowering regulations, creating jobs, all of that stuff is awesome. Now, in terms of efficiency of production and things like that, I'd be curious to know if we stopped doing it because we didn't have the right refineries, if we stopped doing it purely for environmental reasons. Like what the reasoning is there. I don't know the history of.

[Drew]

It's definitely with the EPA rollbacks. There was a lot of EPA rollbacks that opened up at a domestic energy production. So now that's why you kind of flip the switch with.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Yeah, because my thing is, listen, it's going to happen somewhere in the world. So we're really not escaping much from an environmental hazard perspective. Also, environmental hazards are very important. People should absolutely pay attention to them. Climate change is very real. It just isn't at the catastrophe level that people would want you to believe when you've got even Bill Gates reversing his tune on that. I think that we can all agree that it's a big deal, it should be paid attention to, but it shouldn't be your number one primary driver focusing on harnessing the energy, the sun. I mean, which is exactly what China is doing, by the way. Which the thing that I will say in China's defense is they are moving away from oil as fast as they can, orders of magnitude faster than any other country that I know of on planet Earth. It is just a fact of literal matter that the sun makes up 99.99998% of all the matter in the Solar system. And so for us it's like, what are you going to burn on Earth that's going to match what's falling on the Earth coming from the sun? I mean, it's just so minuscule when you think about the plant matter on Earth or the oil under the ground, you know, old dinosaur bones, old plants that you're going to extract as oil. It's nothing compared to if you could just get good at capturing the sun. So we should be focused on that. We should be racing towards that in the same way that China is. We should be reducing our dependence on oil and the need to do all of that. But while we do that transition, we should be making sure that we're energy independent. And if that means spinning oil refineries so that we're not reliant on the Middle east, way better situation. If that makes us an energy exporter, it's creating jobs, great. It's not my favorite kind of manufacturing to bring back to the US but I'll take it.

[Drew]

We have to talk about the CNN thing. So CNN originally tweeted, two Pennsylvania teenagers crossed into New York City Saturday morning for it could have been a normal day enjoying the city during abnormally warm weather. But in less than an hour their lives would be drastically changed as the pair would be arrested for throwing homemade during an anti Muslim protest outside of Meher Zoran Mamdani's home. Here's what we know so far, that this was their write up about the domestic terrorist attack that happened in New York.

[Tom Bilyeu]

This is crazy, man.

[Drew]

Wow.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Listen, the, the example that people give, and I think it is a phenomenal one, is this is like writing about nine, 11, you know, whatever, seven hijackers or however many there were, were enjoying a wonderful warm day in September in the city when suddenly their lives were changed as they crashed planes into a building. It's like, what are you doing? Now they've done a retraction. But even in the retraction they were still like downplaying the bomb didn't go off. But if it had, the kids of their own admission said we were hoping to kill more people than they killed. In the Boston city bombing. They have detonated the explosive devices so they know they were real. These kids were trying to kill people and so like to frame it like that is just so gross and so ridiculous. And the fact that this kind of stuff works. The reason that I wanted to cover this is I just want to remind everybody, you guys are being spun all the time. Even I am making word choices all the time. Everybody is trying to lock you in their frame of reference now. Boy, am I doing a lot of work to try to make sure that my frame of reference is tied to reality, which I think is the highest utility thing to do versus a narrative. But goodness gracious, like, this kind of thing is so ridiculous that I can't believe how naked it's become. The just blatant manipulation. And so just remember, your favorite politician is doing this to you. It isn't just the people that you hate.

[Drew]

CNN Retract. Action said a post regarding the two individuals arrested for throwing homemade bombs outside of New York City's Mayor Zoram Hamdani's home failed to reflect the gravity of the incident, thereby breaching the editorial standards we require for all our reporting. It has therefore been deleted.

[Tom Bilyeu]

God, like, they're so wild.

[Drew]

That was a nice way to say I messed up.

[Tom Bilyeu]

That's a nice way of saying we manipulate you. We don't want you to know it. Even this retraction is further manipulation and downplay. Downplay.

[Drew]

Next up and quick hits. President Trump has appointed Erica Kirk to the US Air Force leadership. Erica Kirk will advise. Yes. The Air Force. On issues affecting the Academy.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Wait, what?

[Drew]

And I think this is a perfectly timed Kanye meme. What the. Does she know about the Air Force?

[Tom Bilyeu]

What the does she know about the air. Does she know something about the Air Force? I literally don't understand. So what's the messaging around this?

[Drew]

Why are they literally the full story? She's brought on as an advisor to the Air Force leadership to help support the next wave. I think it's optics, because I think Charlie Kirk was supposed to get the role.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Okay. But I'll ask the same question about Charlie Kirk. Why would Charlie Kirk be advising the Air Force? I don't understand. So listen, there might be a. If we're saying these guys are so good at recruiting, you have no idea. We want them to teach us their ways. I totally get it. So it's like, if she understands how to recruit and that's what this is about, then just message it.

[Drew]

But this is from Fox News. President Trump appoints Erica Kirk to serve on the US Air Force Academy Board of Visitors, taking the position her late husband Charlie was slated to hold before he was assassinated in September. Now Erica joins a panel that oversees moral discipline, curriculum and fiscal affairs at the Academy.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Okay. Morale, discipline, curriculum. All right, it seems weird. I don't expect this to be universally liked, but whatever.

[Drew]

Next on the quick hit. YouTube surpassed Disney, Paramount, Warner Brothers in 2025. In ad revenue, not those three individually combined. YouTube alone has more ad revenue than Disney, Paramount and Warner Brothers Discovery.

[Tom Bilyeu]

No one should be surprised by this.

[Drew]

It's officially the largest media company in the world, bro.

[Tom Bilyeu]

They are so powerful. People don't understand. Like, YouTube has become a part of the fabric of people's everyday life. It's the one thing where no matter how my mom with YouTube and then if I like run into somebody's kids and I'm like, oh, like, you know, what do you watch? The odds of them saying YouTube are basically 100%. The odds of them saying TikTok is high. But YouTube is basically 100%. Like, it is just where people go to watch, you know, their whatever influencer. And the cool thing about YouTube is it can be anything, man. Like when I look at it, it is startling. If you go and type in Millennial gaming review, you're going to go into a universe. If you type in like kids gaming, the universe is so different. It is the same thing. Gaming, influencers in gaming. But when I say that they are night and day different, it is wild. But it's all on the same platform. And that is the brilliance of YouTube is it is infinite TV channels that every niche is so deep and so specific, it's crazy. So, yeah, YouTube you can expect to be here for a long time. But like we were talking about before we started rolling, nothing is forever and last.

[Drew]

On the quick hit for our movie heads out there, project Hail mary debuts with 95% on rotten tomatoes, described as one of the best sci fi films of the decade. Any Weir friend of the show, he was on the show. Love him.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Drew, what's the problem with this review

[Drew]

that is on Rotten Tomatoes?

[Tom Bilyeu]

Rotten Tomatoes is okay, but you've got a left review and a right review. You've got the review on the left side is critics only and the review on the right is audience critics have disgraced themselves year after year, movie after movie. So I'm going to wait until we get the audience score on this one. When I see a 95 to me that says critics tend to be wildly left leaning. So I'm like, okay, so this is a movie that people on the left love. Now if I remember from my time with Andy Weir, that is certainly in keeping. Now I will say that book was so good that I am very optimistic about this movie. The yeah, the book was phenomenal. If you at all like sci fi, it's so good. That book was written so well, man. Cheers to Andy Weir. He is absolutely brilliant. We're hitting Pause for a moment. But there's plenty more ahead, so don't go anywhere.

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[Tom Bilyeu]

Thanks for sticking around. Let's get right back into the action.

[Drew]

Karen Levitt casually threw out on the table that she might be okay with doing drafts. Trump is leaving all his options open.

[Carol]

Mothers out there are worried that we're going to have a draft, that they're going to see their sons and daughters

[Tom Bilyeu]

take the eggs around.

[Carol]

Carol, what do you want to say about the president's plans for troops on the ground? As we know, it's been largely an air campaign up until now. It has been and it will continue to be. And President Trump wisely does not remove options off of the table. I know a lot of politicians like to do that quickly, but the president as commander in chief wants to continue to assess the success of this military operation. It's not part of the current plan right now, but the president again wisely keeps his options on the table.

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Dude.

[Tom Bilyeu]

So this one to me just feels like political suicide. I mean, look, some people will just keep doubling down, doubling down, doubling down until get that victory because they're at the table and it's like, well, I'm, I'm down a half mil now. What's a million drew? And they just keep trying to dig themselves out of that hole. Now, I'm not saying that Trump is in a hole right now with Iran. I think it's too early to tell. But I think that the signs coming out for my money like this is showing that it's got legs. So in terms of remaining a conflict where you do not get the settled down aspect that you want. Quickly, again, Trump could be today announcing. No, no, no. Like, we've worked something out. We'll see. But I think that would be him leaving Iran in its current state because you've just replaced the Ayatollah with his son.

[Drew]

Yeah.

[Tom Bilyeu]

So it's like his son who you just killed, like, half of his family members, including his wife, his mom, one of his kids. So it's like, this guy is not going to be like, hey, everybody, let's hold hands. You know what? I just want to.

[Drew]

I'm ready to make it.

[Tom Bilyeu]

I want to forgive, like, what happened. Everybody, if we could just say, you know, amen and love. Love your neighbor. I don't think that's what that's going to come out of this. So I would be very shocked that there would be stability that would come out of that announcement if he makes it. We'll see. So, yeah, telling the American people that you are not going to remove a draft. Like, there's a one to one with poll numbers going down on that. So we'll see. We'll see. It is very interesting to look at Trump as a transformational figure. Imagine having 100 years of distance from this moment and what this will look like, because at that point, it's just all outcomes. And so if this goes horribly awry, it's just like, what a moron he was. Was completely unhinged. This is what happens in a populist moment. You elect dictators and they go nuts and they run about the world and it all falls apart, or if it all works, you look back and go, ooh, America finally elected a president that wasn't afraid to take action, who did the hard thing to isolate China. One of the few times, you know, they were coming up in an era where 12 of the last 16 times that a rising superpower collided with an established superpower, they ended up in war. And yet Trump somehow was able to isolate China by systematically going after these different, different proxies, breaking their access to oil, forcing them to move all to solar. And you know what I mean? Like, you can see how it, like, would break down where you look back at it and go, whoa. Like, actually a very impressive move. But if you looked at it, you would say, but what was it like on the ground at that time? Because everything is so uncertain and that's where we're all trapped, which is we don't have the historical perspective to know which way this is going to go. It still remains up in the air that, that, yeah, he could end up pulling this off. And pulling this off to me means he stays in power long enough to make this economically advantageous to the U.S. not that it will ever be morally justifiable. I think that that's one of the things that people take away from me. And every now and then I am so interested in just fighting with the people in chat that I see every now and then. But unfortunately, that has not proven to be good tv. I will resist. But yeah, I'm so curious to know what people's best take is like, where this goes.

[Drew]

I'm gonna have to put your feet to the fire here.

[Tom Bilyeu]

I love it.

[Drew]

Trump is doubling down. This is his true social post. Great job by hardworking Scott Presser on Fox and Friends. Talk about using the filibuster or chalking filibuster. In order to pass the Save America act, an 88% issue with all voters, it must be done immediately. It supersedes everything else. Must go to the front of the line. I as president will not sign other bills until this is passed. I want to just pause right there for a second because to your point, he's in the middle of the war, he has all these things working against him and now he's not going to pass anything else until the Save Act. It seems like he's definitely pushing his chips all into the middle with this. This one.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Well, it's interesting, yes. I would say his chips are way more all in in Iran. Iran, from a political standpoint, is far scarier in terms of the Republican Party's future. This, I think, is one of the things that gets at the heart of your politicians are not working for you. In poll after poll after poll, American people want there to be ID for voting, just full stop. They support it. It's 88. I've never heard that poll. Maybe it's changed. I've seen. And that takes into account Democrats and all that. Like I think it pulls for Democrats in the upper 70s. So it's like boys and girls. You've got to understand that the American people, writ large, regardless of party affiliation, want you to protect voter integrity. Now, whether Trump has the ability to just like veto things that come across his desk or refuse to sign, I don't know about the refuse to sign, but certainly presidents can veto legislation. So he does have with unless there's a super majority, he does have a pretty big tool in his arsenal. And if this is the one that he's going to burn the political capital on, I get it.

[Drew]

I was going to go to the Mom Dani poll like the demographics is destiny thing, this is the narrative that a lot of people are, you know, pushing. Of course when you look at American born New Yorkers, these are the people who they voted for. And then we look at foreign born

[Tom Bilyeu]

anybody knocking on the phone. Basically Mamdani was far more popular among foreign born New Yorkers than he is with people that were born actually in New York. And it's a, a pretty fascinating breakdown.

[Drew]

Double the sport.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Remember that the census, it determines seats in Congress and the census counts anybody living in the state. So it doesn't matter whether they're legal or illegal. None of that matters at all. So and you've heard mom Donnie talk multiple times about you can get access to these federal or these state dollars regardless of your immigration status, meaning illegal aliens can get access to these dollars. Now that just doesn't work when you've got economic problems, which we have in spades, where you're deficit spending. The deficit spending is the very thing that is making it impossible for working and middle class Americans to get by. And then you look at the fact that illegal alien. Now this is one, admittedly I want to fact check this. This is one of those things that feels a little too right emotionally. Things that feel right emotionally rarely withstand like a lot of rigor. So I'm going to give you things that I've seen reported in graphs and just keep in mind that these things could be manipulated or just be outright fabric. The graph that I was looking at this morning showed that people, illegal aliens are per household more likely to be on welfare of all kinds than Americans. And so it goes, illegals do the most then immigrants, but legal then natural born American citizens. So that like tier tells you everything about the growing animosity that you need to know between people that are actually paying taxes and then people that are not. Now the tax thing gets complicated because in the short term illegal aliens typically are a win because they will end up using somebody else's Social Security number. And so they'll be paying into a system but not taking as much out of the system. But over time that flips and they end up drawing off of the system a lot more than they contribute. So it depends on again this is on the deep dive. You can go check it out. I talk extensively about this stuff but that's where this all goes crazy is that people will point to. Well hold on a second. Like in the. The immigrants are actually good for the tax base. Yes, for like I don't know, it's two to three years or something like that. And then it flips. Taking a short break. But there's more impact theory after. Stay tuned. Thanks for staying tuned. Now let's get back to it.

[Drew]

So the first thing straight to Hormuz. Mr. Economic Lens Tom Bilyeu himself has said this has been Iran's strategic hold. They've been trying to control this strait because this controls 20% of the oil supply, it goes through it. We have footage of ships being burned. So it's not an open straight that people could just pass by. It's not as open as we thought it was. Give us the breakdown on what's really going on and what's happening behind the straight.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Yeah, from the beginning, the Strait of Hormuz is the area that everybody needs to pay attention to. And the world's oil supply literally just got choked a little harder as three ships that were attempting to cross the strait got attacked and damaged. This is one of the heaviest days of attacks on shipping since the war in Iran began. And for anybody that's trying to spin it and make it look like this isn't what's going on is trying to delude you. The reality is that Iran, with their much smaller military force, is able to create enough havoc that people are still very hesitant to go through the strait. And the worst hit of the three ships was the Thai flagged bulk carrier. It's operated by Precious Shipping was struck twice by unidentified weapons. They were, they struck above the waterline. And the strike triggered explosions near the stern. In the engine room, fire broke out. There was like 20 crew members that had to evacuate the craft. A second vessel, the Star Gwyneth was also struck. They were struck off the coast of Dubai, which is crazy. We haven't been talking about this a lot, but Dubai's reputation is, is really getting shook by this. You guys can expect oil prices to go up as a result. So the markets are going to be bouncing around a lot. But when you look at direction of travel in terms of how things are headed in the Middle East, Trump has been saying that we're going to get the straight open. He's been blustering a lot about, you know, we're going to slap you, run around. It's going to be the craziest thing they've ever seen, all of that. But they're still able to get things in the straight that are causing a problem. Insurance carriers don't want to touch this stuff. Trump has promised to escort people, but he's been unable to do that. And now different countries are cutting deals directly with Iran to Have their ships left alone to make things even more fun. By the way, Iran's military has issued a new threat today, warning that it's now given the green light to strike US and Israeli economic targets in the region, including like bank branches. So they've urged people to stay a kilometer away from bank branches. And let us not forget that Iran has some seriously talented hackers.

[Drew]

And then I want to daisy chain that with a tweet from Osint Defender. They said US Intelligence has begun to see indications Iran is step is taking steps to deploy some of its 2,000 to 6,000 naval mines of Iranian, Chinese and Russian origin into shipping lanes across the strait. So this seems like this is Iran's choke point and they're going to take it. This is a strategic move. This is a smart thing to do if you're Iran and you want to defeat your enemy.

[Tom Bilyeu]

And they're doing well by the way. So it doesn't take a lot of fear to get a huge response. This is asymmetric warfare in a nutshell. You inflict terror on people, or in this case inflict terror on the people that own the ships, on the insurance companies who are like, yeah, like that's just bad for business. Insurance companies operate typically on razor thin margins. And so when you've got risk that's going up disproportionate to the gain that you're going to get, you just say, yeah, we're not going to insure it. So that is going to continue until the US can prove that people are going to be able to get through the strait safely. And given three ships that were hit today, that message is, as of right now, today, the US despite their gigantic overwhelming naval power, is just not able to get people through the strait safely. If the US really does have an answer to the problem and they can find a way to stop these ships before they're able to attack. If they can get other ways that the US can detect what's going on from air based radar and things like that, they're also moving some into the region from other places. So it's like just, just like the Iranians are going to have a very clever response. And you should assume that Iranians have brilliant people making their decisions. So does the US So this is going to be this tit for tat thing that goes back and forth for a while. What you're actually watching is two hyper intelligent groups of people with extremely deadly weapons who understand each other's capabilities very well. You've got the Chinese feeding the Iranians like, like second by second information on the movements of our military equipment. And so it's going to come down to who gets the upper hand first by destroying the visibility, that's going to be a huge one. And then ultimately demoralizing them.

[Drew]

I want to dive back into the decentralized military aspect of this because I think everybody watches Saving Private Ryan. We all play Call of Duty and Fortnite. We're like, just go in there and shoot that guy you killed. The leaders bomb the White House, we're done. We could wrap it up. But I think this was a good point. You built up that their military is decentralized. So there's not a core hub, there's not a department, there's not a Pentagon that we can kind, kind of come all the command comes out of. They also announced that they will start targeting American institutions in the region. So you have. Iran is publishing a hit list naming Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia, IBM, Oracle, Planet Palantir, which all has offices in the Middle East, Israel, Dubai and Abu Dhabi. So now you have a decentralized military who has listed a bunch of targets. And because you just chopped off the head, you don't know who's leading what, who's popping up and who's taking that control breakdown kind of decentralized military side and how this makes the, the war even more complicated for us.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Yeah, this is one of the things that people that are trying to map out what's going to happen have got to take into consideration. The decentralized military that Iran is running is so decentralized that it runs the risk of becoming essentially a well armed headless chicken that can't be stopped from running around and spraying blood on everything. And that idea that it can't be stopped is what people have to think about. So if Trump is going to have an exit from this war, there has to be somebody that you can talk to, because if you stop and they don't, then you've gotten nowhere. If we say, okay, cool, ceasefire, but then they keep bombing the Strait of Hormuz, you've gained nothing. Only the Supreme Leader can turn off the war machine. And the new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khomeini, this is Khomeini's son, is reportedly in critical condition and on a ventilator somewhere in an ICU under heavy protection. Now, I want to be very clear, these reports are unverified. They've been swirling for a while now. And every day that passes where we don't see or hear from him, the rumors Obviously gain a little bit more credibility, because nothing would bolster the Iranian regime supporting people more than him making a message, even if it's from an underground bunker somewhere, to make a message telling the people, you know, that they're going to do this, that or the other.

[Drew]

With the decentralized military, is this a unique problem that you think America has to deal with, or do you think this is something that we knew it was coming, we just didn't think it was going to take this long. Like, what do you think the pushback was when they discovered how complex the military, the war actually is?

[Tom Bilyeu]

Well, if we find out that they did not anticipate decentralized command a, that would be shocking. I refuse to believe that's true. This is exactly what we saw in Iraq. It was completely decentralized. This is what you see in Afghanistan. This is how Afghanistan has been able to, quote, unquote, bankrupt empires time after time is it's a bunch of guys armed in caves. And so you try to go deal with that, and each one just does their own thing. The US has spent the last 20 years dealing with this exact problem. So there's no way that they didn't consider it. What will be interesting to watch play out is whether Trump had any sense of what is this look like as we try to exit. He mapped out what would happen in Venezuela, so well, there's no way he didn't come out of that a little bit cocky. And so my concern isn't that he didn't see these things coming as possibilities. Meaning somebody didn't put a brief on his desk that said, listen, this guy has broken the IRGC up into 31 provinces. So it's not that it's a surprise. It's just as you build a mental map of what you're coming into. To be a person like Donald Trump Trump, you have to believe in yourself well past the realm of reason. And so this is how these guys always end up getting tripped up. Now, I don't know that Trump is tripped up, but my mental map of Trump goes something like this. He cannot see past negotiations, so I think he's trying to hurt them to the point that they'll come to the negotiating table. I'm just not sure who he thinks is going to come to the negotiating table.

[Drew]

Reports now are coming out that Iran is actually up. There was a British journalist that gave satellite images before and after certain military facilities in the region. And we did take some losses. We took a couple meaning hits. We have a couple meaningful radar systems that are out. We're relocating a radar system from South Korea into the region because we're down some. So clearly the US Is definitely reloading its guns. Do you think we get to the

[Tom Bilyeu]

very nice way of saying it?

[Drew]

I was trying to, you know, bolster us up. I'm still Team America, as much as I talk junk. Like, I do want us to thrive, but it's one of those things. Do you think that we'll be able to overcome this setback and figure out a way out of this, or do you think at this point now it's just a way for Trump to save face and kind of say, okay, we tried our best, let's just get out here and minimize.

[Tom Bilyeu]

I think we're still in the early weeks of this war, so I wouldn't get too hysterical yet. If we start getting into week five and six and we are seeing gas prices just climbing, climbing, climbing. And the problem not, you know, we've dropped it down, whatever, 92%, let's say, in terms of their ability to launch ballistic missiles and drones. But if it stays there and then those drones and rockets are getting through so that the damage being done, even though it's a much lower rate rate of fire, if the damage being done is on par with what was happening before, then I don't think people are going to be satisfied with that. I think we will have a problem, and that's when people will be able to bang that drum and say, okay, something really bad is happening here. In terms of the no radar thing. Social media is full of claims that rockets are now raining down on Israel with zero warning because US And Israeli radar systems have been totally wiped out. But the corporate question is, is it actually true? Now, I'm guessing you guys spend as much time on X as I do, and you will, I think, agree that right now the level of bull and fakery is insane. It is off the charts now as you get into the fact checks on the radar, unfortunately, some of the idea that the US And Israeli radar capabilities have been degraded, it's actually true. Now, it's largely exaggerated. So you have to be careful in terms of. Of it isn't the hysterical, you know, everything is just getting through and everybody's blind. It isn't that. And then I will also remind you, whatever damage they're doing to the US bases, to our allies in the region, to Israel, is going to be less than we're doing to them. So both sides are being degraded. Iran has managed to hit some of the US Radar infrastructure across the region Satellite imagery confirmed that Thaad radar that was set up has been destroyed at our air base in Jordan. Another was hit near Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia. RAD facilities were also struck in Qatar and two more locations in the United Arab Emirates. The James Martin center for Non Proliferation Studies confirmed the Qatar damage by looking at satellite analysis. So we're pretty convinced that that is real. Now. CNN calculated the replacement cost for one destroyed Thaad radar system alone would be just under half a billion dollars. So these hits ain't coming cheap, man. The most significant protective failure that I could actually verify happened on March 9th. 9th this was the IDF itself confirming that two Hezbollah missiles hit central Israel. The IDF has called the strikes an isolated failure. That seems pretty unlikely to me. If by isolated you mean that the radar that had been taken out now can be exploited over and over and over, yes, it's isolated to the radar that has been damaged. I think over time it'll become clear exactly how isolated that is. Though I expect more to be able to make their way through. An honest assessment is going to sound something like Iran has targeted radar infrastructure first and that's going to be the first thing that they take out. So there are things that are getting through, but it's not as big of a deal as they would have you believe in terms of you don't have a never ending barrage of things landing. So obviously we're going to be staying tuned, watching to see exactly what happens. How much of the radar infrastructure not only has already been destroyed, but how much more are they going to be able to hit? Because you can believe that, of course they're going to be doing everything they

[Drew]

can to hit more and more radar, decentralized military. We talked about the Strait of Hormuz. I'm just stacking all these things above this war that unlike Venezuela, unlike the potential Cuba mission that's on its way after this, it's not, it's not a snatch and grab as we thought it was. And it seems like this is going to take a little bit longer than a couple of days, a couple of months.

[Tom Bilyeu]

This is one of those things. Drew, I think about this a lot. He campaigns on, no new wars. And then Iran twice. Venezuela threats to Mexico promises Cuba now

[Drew]

operations in Mexico, operations in Ecuador.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Ecuador, in case I forgot, if he pulls it off and Venezuela becomes a good partner and we do a little ding against China and the Venezuelan people are like, oh my God, like economic boom. We love this. It's like a return to the pre. Basically socialization of Venezuela. If Cuba becomes a actual thriving economy again. Again going back pre revolution. If we're able to stabilize what's going on in Iran and get rid of that as a terror threat around the world, like all of the GCC countries want Iran to be stable. And if the people that are on the side of good in that country, if they rise up and take over, whether they end up being like officially pro America or they're just like trying to create a thriving situation that is not terror based and they completely defund Hamas and Hezbollah. If all of that happens on Trump's watch, it would be who historic. Now that we're in it, though admittedly it makes me deeply uncomfortable because it everything is so destabilized and when you're in this destabilized, it could just break bad so fast. We're in it. Let's hope that we come out the other side in a position that's not only good for the US but good for all of these individual countries. And if that ends up happening, it would be ridiculously historic. But what a gamble.

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