FBI Fulton County Raid, Fed Loses Control, Don Lemon Arrest, and Revolution Talk Unpacked | Tom Bilyeu Show Live

Summary

Impact Theory with Tom Bilyeu

Episode: FBI Fulton County Raid, Fed Loses Control, Don Lemon Arrest, and Revolution Talk Unpacked

Date: February 2, 2026

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Episode Overview

Tom Bilyeu and guests take a sweeping, incisive look at a volatile week in US and global affairs. The show explores the recent FBI raid in Fulton County related to the 2020 election, fiscal instability as the Federal Reserve appears to lose control, Don Lemon’s controversial arrest, the rhetoric of revolution in American culture, and more. Tom’s signature is breaking down headline events into structural, cause-and-effect dynamics, pulling back the curtain on the memes and narratives dominating public discourse.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. FBI Raid on Fulton County Election Hub

• [01:00–13:53]
• The FBI executed a search warrant at Fulton County, Georgia’s election hub, seizing ballots and records tied to the 2020 election.
• Both political sides immediately spun the move:
  • The right sees it as uncovering truth.
  • The left suspects narrative control, tampering, or overreach.
• Tulsi Gabbard, now Director of National Intelligence (DNI), was present, fueling speculation and accusations of improper evidence handling.
• Tom’s Take:
  • “Now, despite Trump’s claims … no widespread fraud has been substantiated in the courts or via audits. But the plot certainly thickens with this move … They got a judge to say yes, indeed, there is enough probable cause there for you guys to go in.” [03:13]
  • “It's certainly unusual for a DNI to be physically present at an FBI evidence seizure; the role is traditionally strategic and logistical rather than operational.” [08:43]
  • Quote: “Everyone should want free and fair elections. If Trump is wrong, that will surface. If he’s right, don’t people want to know that our elections are being tampered with?” [09:21]
  • On narrative manipulation:
    “This is narrative control. This is James Burnham all day. This is people will do whatever they need to do to alter the frame of reference … so they can maintain power.” [12:40]

2. Populism, Distrust, and Narratives

• [14:58–18:39]
• Both left and right distrust each other, leading to "death spirals" of suspicion over evidence and voting integrity.
• Rob Pitts (Fulton County Chair): now doubts ballot security.
• Co-host urges Democrats to support voter ID, arguing for transparency, even if it means minor disenfranchisement.
• Cites rumors about international interference, especially from Venezuela (Maduro), possibly justifying Tulsi Gabbard’s role in the raid.

3. International Election Interference & Elite Control

• [18:39–25:43]
• Theories abound regarding foreign interference (Russia, Venezuela, possible Elon Musk intervention).
• Tom details how elites, structural forces, and the NGO/CIA complex manipulate society from the top down.
• Reference to Rothschilds and the nature of global influence:
  “Imagine, you know all 150 [global economic decision makers]. … It's not like they're all going to agree, but it's like, you're in the room, you know the people and you know the mechanisms by which this stuff works.” [23:15]

4. Don Lemon Arrest & The Principle of Policy vs. Personal Dislike

• [29:33–37:06]
• Don Lemon was arrested while covering the Grammys, stoking debate about press freedom, protests, and law enforcement boundaries.
• Tom and co-host use this to argue that policies must be evaluated independently of whether we like or dislike the person affected. “If it was Alex Jones in that church, would you guys be feeling the same way that you feel now? … then you don’t like the policy, you just don’t like the person.” [34:12]
• Discussion connects to larger themes about civil liberties, the KKK Act, and the risks of weaponizing laws against unpopular figures.

5. ICE, Tom Homan, and Minnesota Protests

• [37:06–41:19]
• Tom Homan brings a steadier, less incendiary approach to ICE and immigration enforcement, compared to emotional, populist rhetoric from previous leaders.
• “He’s got that ability, he’s a steady hand, he’s not easy to sway. … This is a moral obligation. But illegal immigrants are human and they need to be treated humanely.” [40:10]
• Homan is praised as the “adult in the room,” potentially calming Minnesota protests.

6. Federal Reserve, Fiscal Crisis, and Economic Endgame

• [41:25–54:47]
• Trump’s surprising nominee for Fed chair and continued high rates are analyzed as masking the Fed’s loss of control.
• Tom argues the US has entered “fiscal dominance”—the Fed’s decisions are now dictated by debt and required interest payments, not by independent economic metrics.
• Notable Quote:
  “We are now entering the endgame of a multi-decade debt bubble that within the next ten years … will bankrupt America.” [41:57] “The honest truth is the Fed has lost complete control over the economy but they're pretending that they're still in charge.” [41:35]
• Discussion of stealth quantitative easing, reserve management purchases, and the cycle fueling asset bubbles and eventual currency crisis.
• “A currency crisis is a totally different ball game than a sector problem ... In 2008, the dollar was still a safe haven. Today, the dollar is the asset that people are fleeing.” [51:01]

7. Housing Policy, Populism, and Revolution

• [57:49–62:13]
• Analysis of Trump’s statement on keeping housing prices high to “protect” homeowners, even at the expense of affordability for others.
• Tom frames this as a recipe for intergenerational resentment and social unrest:
  “He’s going to do foolish things that will keep the price of housing high ... and that’s how you end up in revolution. It’s just so wild. This feels so predictable.” [62:07]

8. Foreign Policy: Iran, Proxy War, and Civil Uprisings

• [62:13–66:25]
• US troop movements around Iran, ongoing Iranian protests, and the wider context of global proxy conflicts (Russia/China/Iran vs. the West).
• Tom emphasizes the crucial role of freedom and the dangers of theocratic, authoritarian rule. “Freedom is the thing that allows you to think through problems … When you’re not allowed to speak freely, you’re not allowed to think freely.” [63:05]

9. Revolution Talk: Giancarlo Esposito, Civil War Rhetoric, and Civic Education

• [66:25–70:40]
• Giancarlo Esposito (Breaking Bad’s “Gus Fring”) makes headlines for revolution talk and rhetoric about 50 million dead being an acceptable cost for real change.
  • Esposito: “If the whole world showed up on Putin’s doorstep…they’ll kill 50 million, however—but that…this is time for revolution, bro.” [66:41]
• Tom pushes back on careless invocation of violence:
  “Please tell me the exact policy you want history to remember that you sent 50 million people to die for … exactly.” [67:55]
• Reflection on cultural normalization of pettiness and incivility in politics, particularly for Gen Z.

10. The Role of Emotion vs. Rational Policy

• [70:40–75:49]
• Tom rails against being led astray by pure emotion, warning of self-destructive cycles in both private and public spheres.
  • Quote: “Your emotions do not have your best interest at heart…they are not meant to be an arbiter of truth.” [71:20]
• Emphasizes teaching critical thinking and anticipating cycles of power and revenge in politics.

11. Tinfoil Hat Time: Rumors of Imminent Alien/UFO Disclosure

• [75:49–78:23]
• Rumors spread about a Trump administration UFO disclosure speech, possibly tied to the Roswell anniversary.
• Tom enthusiastically unpacks the possibility—but with characteristic skepticism and philosophical speculation about simulations and alien life.
  • “If you told me we could bend spacetime, I’d be a little more excited. But if you told me aliens were real, I’d be like, that is awesome.” [76:43]
  • “It doesn’t make any sense that, in a universe as absolutely staggeringly large as ours is … the odds that we’re the only [ones], get out of here.” [77:47]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Narrative Manipulation:
  “This is narrative control. … People will do whatever they need to do to alter the frame of reference of the people looking at the problem so they can maintain power. And this is so gross and so corrupt and just like, oh, God, I really hate it.” —Tom Bilyeu [12:40]
• On Policy vs. Personalities:
  “Don Lemon is an avatar for me. … There are people that feel about me the way I feel about Don Lemon. … When it comes to first amendment, I would say you want to err on the side of letting people go a little farther than you’re comfortable with, because it will come back round to you.” —Tom Bilyeu [36:15]
• On Economic Crisis:
  “We're up against mathematical forces. … We're entering the endgame of a multi-decade debt bubble.” —Tom Bilyeu [41:57]
• On Emotional Reasoning:
  “Your emotions do not have your best interest at heart…they are not meant to be an arbiter of truth.” —Tom Bilyeu [71:20]
• On Alien Disclosure:
  “There is virtually nothing you could tell me that would be more exciting. … If you told me that aliens were real, I’d be like, that is awesome. I’m so excited.” —Tom Bilyeu [76:43]
• On Systemic Control:
  “There might be 150 people, full stop, total, out of the 8 billion, might be 150 people who control economic policy globally. … You know the mechanisms by which this stuff works.” —Tom Bilyeu [23:15]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Fulton County Raid/Election Integrity: 01:00–13:53
• Populism & Narrative Spin: 14:58–18:39
• International Interference/Elite Structures: 18:39–25:43
• Don Lemon, Policy vs. Personality: 29:33–37:06
• Immigration Enforcement & Minnesota: 37:06–41:19
• Fed & Fiscal Crisis: 41:25–54:47
• Housing & Revolution: 57:49–62:13
• Iran, Protests, Proxy Wars: 62:13–66:25
• Revolution Rhetoric/Civic Education: 66:25–70:40
• Emotional Reasoning/Education: 70:40–75:49
• Alien Disclosure (Tinfoil Hat Time): 75:49–78:23

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Summary & Takeaways

This Impact Theory episode delivers a potent blend of realpolitik, economic warnings, media critique, and cultural commentary. Tom Bilyeu remains skeptical yet deeply curious, arguing passionately for rational policy, structural understanding over narrative spin, and the sanctity of civil liberties—no matter who’s in the hot seat. The wild spectrum of topics reinforces Tom’s core message: understand cause-and-effect in a world dominated by elite incentives, populist unrest, economic headwinds, and constant meme warfare. Whether parsing ballot security, the fate of the dollar, or rumors of aliens, Tom pushes for clarity, curiosity, and the courage to think critically in a fractious era.

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For listeners:
If you want to thrive—in economics, politics, or personal life—think deeper, question narratives, reject simple tribalism, and build your worldview on cause and effect, not emotional headlines.

Transcript

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[Tom Bilyeu]

What is up everybody? Welcome to another episode of the Tom Bily Show Live. We are locked and loaded. Today, the FBI raided the Fulton county election hub in Union City. People are not happy about it. This is tied to the election fraud. Reactions have been extreme. We're going to be going into that. The Fed has decided to hold rates very high. They are, in my opinion, pretending that they haven't already lost control of the economy. But they have, and we're going to cover the dramatic cause and effect of the fiscal dominance that we're all living in right now. Trump has announced his very surprising pick for the next Fed chair, and the market reacted hard. We'll go through that. Tom Homan is bringing a steady hand to Minnesota. He certainly has admitted that ICE had gotten out of control and that changes needed to be made. So we'll see if the continued cooperation actually plays out well. Speaking of cooperation, hundreds of thousands of Iranians are reportedly marching in the streets as a massive buildup of U.S. troops in the region continues. Certainly seems like something is about to pop off and we're going to cover some of the details, including a cryptic message that Russia sent out about a potential strike that the US has already done on another one of Iran's nuclear facilities. Lots of rumors flying there. Don Lemon got arrested and Breaking Bad star Giancarlo Esposito openly called for revolution, apparently considering 50 million people dead, not kidding, as an acceptable price to pay. We'll show you that clip, let you hear for yourself. And Candace Owens throws more shade at Erica Kirk as we put our tinfoil hats on in conspiracy corner. And by, by the way, we have alien talk today. Like, real live rumors about aliens. So we'll get into that. We'll get into that. I know. It is a fan favorite. All right, welcome, everybody. It's been a wild week.

[Co-host or Guest Commentator]

All right, we got to talk about Fulton County. For those that don't know, that's where Georgia was. It's a key swing state. I said that's where Georgia is. That's where Atlanta is. It's a key swing state. It was one of the deciding votes in 2020. Yeah, it's looking real shady, Tom.

[Tom Bilyeu]

This is the center of all the Hubbabaloo, hubaloo, hubbaloo hu. Uh, that's the most Tacoma thing I've ever said in my life. But there it is. The. All the drama surrounding the 2020 election. Trump obviously just continuing to insist that everything was fraudulent, the election was stolen. And because, as Drew was saying, this is such a important swing state, I think this was the place where he was saying, go find me whatever. How many other thousands of votes. That became very controversial. And on January 28th, in a very controversial move, the FBI executed a search warrant at the Fulton County Election Hub and Operations center in Union City, Georgia, seizing physical ballots and all kinds of other records related to the 2020 presidential election. The move is obviously tied to ongoing investigations into Trump's claims that the election was stolen. Now, despite Trump's claims, to be clear, so far, no widespread fraud has been substantiated in the courts or via audits. But the plot certainly thickens with this move because it would require a judge to find probable cause that something is going on. So theoretically, this stuff is not done willy nilly that they are presenting evidence as to why they think that this would be worthwhile. And they got a judge to say yes, indeed, there is enough probable cause there for you guys to go in. Now, needless to say, the left and the right are locked in a battle to control how all of us see this move. The right sees it as finally getting to the truth, and the left sees it as a witch hunt. Now, the crazy thing from where I'm sitting is that watching the left right now, in real time, they are attempting to plant seeds of doubt in the public's mind about Trump's admin gearing up effectively to tamper with the documents. We're going to show you clips. You can hear for yourself. Their argument centers around the President, the presence of DNI Tulsi Gabbard. All right, let's watch the clip. Her presence at the raid being discussed on M. S now I thought this is pretty wild.

[Michael (Expert or Analyst)]

Yes. And based on that photo, at one point she was in a truck with boxloads of what are apparently ballots, which means if she was alone, she is going to need to be on the chain of custody for those ballots and explain to defense counsel why she was with them and what she was doing. And if there is a special agent in there with her, that special agent is going to be on the chain of custody and is probably going to get asked by defense counsel why on earth somebody was allowed to be with that evidence who is not a member of the FBI nor on the chain of custody.

[Tom Bilyeu]

So, Michael, let me interrupt you for just a second and I'll ask you to continue. But we just literally got some information about why Tulsi Gabbard was there. This is, per a Trump administration official director, protecting the integrity of our elections against interference, including operations targeting voting systems, databases and election infrastructure. She has and will continue to take action on President Trump's directive to. To secure our elections and work with our interagency partners to do so. What do you make of that explanation?

[Michael (Expert or Analyst)]

It doesn't pass the laugh test for anybody who's actually worked in this world.

[Co-host or Guest Commentator]

It doesn't pass the laugh test for anybody that worked in this world.

[Tom Bilyeu]

You want to play this out like this. This is. So before you hit play, obviously they're not going to just come out and say, we suspect that she's tampering with evidence. But if this is something I will often say to people on camera, off camera, is people say words for a reason. They are trying to convince you of something. So these guys are saying a whole lot of words. They are trying to convince you of something. I would say the very thing they're trying to convince you of is that it's suspicious that she's there. Like, they're not debating, like, oh, this is a waste of taxpayer dollars, like, she should be back doing something else. They're saying it's suspicious. Chain of custody. Why is she alone with the data? It's like they're planting seeds so that if something comes out of it, then the next step is, well, but the thing that came out of it is corrupt. They've obviously gone in and played with the data. So this is not somebody who's like, I really want to know what happened. This is a group of people that have a predetermined outcome that they want to make sure that we get to. And they will use narrative control to, at a minimum, get people to believe that this is where we're at even if the data, like the hard information, leads us somewhere else. So anyway, let him finish his thought.

[Michael (Expert or Analyst)]

And there's a couple of reasons for that. First of all, this was collection of evidence. There is nothing there that cannot be reported to Cole Tulsi Gabbard once they have processed it, analyzed it in May.

[Tom Bilyeu]

And so if that's true, what's the problem? You know she's going to get all the data.

[Michael (Expert or Analyst)]

Again, it is unheard of for non law enforcement personnel to take place in the execution of a search warrant.

[Tom Bilyeu]

But why is it a problem?

[Michael (Expert or Analyst)]

Secondly, this is a criminal investigation. It is looking at past conduct. Even if we believed that Tulsi Gabbard should be involved in law enforcement actions,

[Tom Bilyeu]

positive for a sec. So she, she is the Director of National Intelligence. It's not like she, like if Bobby Kennedy were there or something and you're like, wait, why is he there?

[Co-host or Guest Commentator]

Why is the health.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Dude, that would be like, okay, like that one's weird. But she, we have entrusted her as a nation with the most sensitive information that we have. What are the global threats around the world? What are the threats we face internally? And so I get that she's not a member of the FBI, but if we understand that she is the hub of the most sensitive information that we have coming through the country that she has been talking for ages about, look, Obama has been running like the Russia hoax and they tried to subvert Trump's presidency. All of that, and this is tied to that, like this is not surprising at all. Now, you may hate it, you may disagree, fair enough. But it's just the way that they are laying this out is strange. All right, let me, let me give you the, the facts here. So Democratic lawmakers, including Senator Senators John Ossoff and Mark Warner and Representative Jim Himes quickly expressed concern, describing Tulsi's presence as quote, unquote bizarre and alarming and potentially indicative of the intelligence community straying into domestic political matters. Again, if they were arguing this from a financial standpoint, I'd be like, okay, maybe. But they argue instead that DNI's focus should rem only on foreign threats, not hands on involvement in FBI raids on US Election facilities. And they have requested briefings to explain her role. So these are not people that are worried about getting to the bottom of whether our elections have integrity or not. These are people that have a pre drawn conclusion and they don't want anybody that could be messing that up. Now, as we heard in the clip, the Trump administration has defended Gabbard's involvement. Now, in regards to whether it's actually weird that she's there, it is. It's certainly unusual for a DNI to be physically president at FBI evidence seizure, as the role is traditionally strategic and logistical rather than operational. However, if there's classified intelligence suggesting foreign actors, for instance, targeted Georgia's 2020 systems, or one of the other things that she's been working on, like I said with Obama, it's pretty easy to justify her presence as legitimate oversight. The real question, for my money, is unless you're concerned about evidence being tampered with, which opens up a whole set of can of worms, why do you care who's present at the raid? Now, I understand Billy Bob from off the street getting to sit in the back with the documents by himself, that would be wacky. But this is the Director of National Intelligence. Everyone should want free and fair elections. If Trump is wrong, that will surface. Trump will have egg on his face, and we can all finally move on. And if he's right, don't people want to know that our elections are being tampered with? I really cannot wrap my head around the fact that people don't want to know, like, what's really happening. I am literally up in arms about the fact that California has made it illegal to ask for ID at a voting place. That is the craziest shit I've ever heard in my life. That is like a kid, a three year old, telling their parent, I'm not doing anything wrong. And they've got like chocolate all over their face. I did not eat a cookie, mom. But they're just literal. Whole face is smeared with chocolate. It's. There was another one that ICE can enforce around pulling places. It's like, what, what, what are we doing? Like, at some point, the way that you're behaving makes it obvious to me that the very thing you're trying to do is make sure that illegal immigrants can vote. So I'm not saying that's what happened in 2020. Maybe it is, maybe it isn't. I saying the energy from the Democrats around voting integrity is so weird that every alarm bell I have goes off. And if I'm trying to do theory of mind and I put myself in their shoes, I'm like, what would they have to be protecting? So option one. I so distrust the Trump administration that I really do believe that they're in the back of the van stuffing ballots or planting the fraud or whatever. Okay? But if that's the case, her being at the raid is not your problem. Your Problem is just say nakedly, these guys cannot be trusted. They're completely corrupt. They are going to fake all of this, and no matter what's actually in those boxes, they're just going to fake it. Okay, well, they're obviously not going to do that there on the scene. That would be the weirdest place with the most cameras everywhere. You do that under the COVID of darkness in a room that nobody knows you're in. So. But fine, if that's your hypothesis, put that forward, call it out. But instead, it's like you're planting seeds right now. This is narrative control. This is James Burnham all day. This is people will do whatever they need to do to alter the frame of reference of the people looking at the problem so they can maintain power. And this is so gross and so corrupt and just like, oh, God, I really hate it. Taking a short break. But there's more impact theory after Stay tuned.

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[Tom Bilyeu]

Thanks for staying tuned. Now let's get back to it.

[Co-host or Guest Commentator]

Fulton County Chairman Rob Pitts literally came out and said that he was at the election warehouse. He now says that he no longer feels safe and secure. He no longer thinks the ballots are safe and secure because they are now out of their control.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Here we go. At least he's saying, we don't know where they're being taken. We don't know what's going to happen to them. So we can no longer, and I can no longer share this board, satisfy not only the citizens of Atlanta, but the citizens of the world that those ballots are still secure. So that is a major concern. There it is. Well, welcome to the game of politics. So, yeah, when you're in a populist moment and everybody's on a team and everybody suspects the other, other side, and nobody believes anything is as it is or should be or as it's represented, you get into these death spirals of everybody distrusts everybody else. And, yeah, it's. It is utterly fascinating. We long to put things in a box. And once you go, the other side's the enemy. Cool. Nice box. Enemies lie, cheat, steel. Cool. Nice box. So now it's like, oh, they're Republican. Oh, enemy. Liars, cheaters. And I wanna be very clear. Both sides do this. It is a part of the way that the human mind works, but nonetheless, like, watching it play out is so obnoxious.

[Co-host or Guest Commentator]

Yeah, I'm be honest. The Democrats, they gotta eat this one. So y' all gotta just say, yes, we'll add voter ID and just stand on it. And I know that mammy in Alabama who walks everywhere and hasn't driven since 1913 might not be able vote no more, and I'm sorry, Mamie, that you can't vote no more. But Democrats, I'm gonna tell y' all with my whole chest, the party that says we're not Nazis is shooting people in the street and they're defending that. The party that's saying we're not letting illegal immigrants vote are now saying, what? Ballots? What are you talking about? No, we're cool. Just take. I'm telling you, you'll be okay. You'll. You'll lose a couple mammys and they'll be fine. But I think Democrats need to change their tone. Say we're 100% with voter election. We're 100% with voter ID, we're okay with it. I want to say they're bending the knee. I want to say Trump gets that win, but let them feel good about this next election. So that way you have nothing else that you can then be bulletproof. But I just think it's hilarious right now that the one party that says, we're doing everything by the book is now hiding up ballots. There's a bunch of fraud. There's a bunch of things kind of in their back pocket. And then the other team that's saying, no, we're. We're not Nazis, we're just trying to make the world a better place is out here roughing up and shooting Americans. So it's. Everybody's kind of looking in the face and becoming the thing that they judge. And I think right now, this is their opportunity to say, hey, you Guys are auditing the 2020 ballots. Okay, cool. Back then, we felt you saw some anomalies. Cool. Although I did watch the rip this weekend, and you're supposed to count the drug money on site. So if I go to a stash house and it's $20 million, not throw everything in the bag and then we'll go back to the office and then count it, it's usually, okay, shut this whole thing down. I am the federal government. Nobody comes in and out. Let's lay these ballots out and let's audit it right here, right now. And that should have been kind of the thing in my perspective, but.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Well, do we know that they didn't do that?

[Co-host or Guest Commentator]

They didn't, because they loaded them up in that truck.

[Tom Bilyeu]

So they didn't take an audit of

[Co-host or Guest Commentator]

the stuff they did. They know. Just knew what they got.

[Tom Bilyeu]

That's going to be like.

[Co-host or Guest Commentator]

And that's why everybody's kind of getting in front of it. But the big thing, though, and this is what I really want to talk about, is this the Maduro pardon. Like, there's been some rumors that the reason that we took Maduro and we've been light on him, is because he says he has inside information about the election interference. And that's why DNA Gabbard is there to maybe connect those dots that are maybe bigger than just, you know, somebody. Yeah.

[Tom Bilyeu]

This is the wild thing I'm glad you brought that up, is the level of international interference that people are hypothesizing is very different than the likely international interference that's actually happening. Now. Everything I'm about to say is all rumor and all conjecture. Conjecture. But I remember when election night happened, Elon Musk was at a party and he left the party early because he said, I already know that Trump is going to win. Like, whatever they're reporting is so delayed compared to the data that he had. Now, nobody knew what he meant by that. A lot of people thought that he was involved in election interference. The rumors that have come out since, and I. Maybe they've been verified. I don't know. But I'll report them as rumors because that's what they are in my mind. But it's my understanding that what he did do was he knew where the vote manipulation was coming from into, I believe, the electronic machines, and they were able to shut those down, like either a DDoS attack or, I'm sure something far more sophisticated, but they were able to stop that. And so once he knew he was able to stop the fake votes from coming in, then he was like, well, Trump's guaranteed to win now because it's only going to be real votes. Then you start getting all the rumors again. Rumors don't know that this is going to end up being true. But to your point about Maduro, there were claims from the Maduro regime that they knew or were involved in the manipulation. Now the manipulation is almost certainly happening at the level of technology, so that if all of that ends up being true, that Elon did in fact identify where the fake votes were coming from, if Venezuela was involved in Maduro is prepared to rat, then we may actually begin to peel a couple layers back and see that the, the interference, the manipulation is far more high level than certainly I thought. And I think a lot of people thought, a lot of people thought it was more just like Russia's doing this thing where it may be a far more coordinated effort. And then it becomes a question of, I guarantee if you've got like Russia and Venezuela coordinating, you're going to find an NGO connection in here somewhere because they're either they have a tremendous financial incentive just from a market level to see that happen in America, or more plausibly, they're also getting immediate upfront payments. And the, this is, you can just assume that my brain has been altered by Mike Benz, that the NGO complex has so much CIA infiltration in terms of actual people involved in NGOs down to the strategies that they deploy and so that they would turn that on America. As we get into this highly divisive time where everybody's on a team, each team hates each other, you can see how it'd be like, oh yeah, we know that these tactics work. We'll use it to not in their minds, undermine America, but to undermine the other side so that the rightful team can get into position. And so I don't care who ends up being found out in that. I want to know if we've got people in the government doing that, we need to know like aggressively, aggressively. So anybody that has a favorite candidate or whatever and doesn't want that to come to light, they can right off like that. That's one of those things where people do not have a sufficient level of hatred for the fact that we are controlled from the top down by, and I can go into this if it's probably not the right time, but we're controlled from the top down by a group of elites. It is a knowable mechanism by which that happens because they're honestly, they're operating at a different level of way to interface with society. And so, you know, most of the time we'll say, you know, most Americans just, they want to get along, they want to raise their kids, they want to fall in love, like, they want to progress in their life. And that is true. But there's a group of people that understand the mechanisms by which humans interact with each other and they're able to step outside of the anthill of all of us going about our daily lives. And the social media age, while it creates a lot of noise, it also creates a ton of visibility into how those mechanisms actually work. And there's a really, really great book by Neil Ferguson that gets at the, the almost banality of the way that this works. It's about the Rothschilds and when you see how they organized banking, one of the rules that the father understood was he said, you all have to befriend politicians. And he was like, that's just how you're going to get all of this done. And so it's like you begin to understand that society operates on these layers. Most people think about their boss, like, my boss is all this influence on my life, yes, in like the local. But as you start backing up and think about something like the Federal Reserve, the Federal Reserve controls so much more of how the planet operates that your boss is stuck inside of that system. And so once you realize, oh, I have to get outside of the way that I think about the world regionally and I have to think, okay, what are the forces that govern how economics works to make it very simple, because economics ultimately controls everything else. And so that's where it's like, okay, you don't hate that enough, you're not mad about that enough, and you certainly don't understand it enough. And so once you begin to understand that the it the wrong way to think about that is the wolves howling and like, oh, it's this dark conspiracy and it's cinematic and its eyes wide shut. The right way to think about it is there's just a set of people that interface with the world at structural influences. Money is the easiest one to talk about. So we'll stick there. Politics is another one. And so when you actually understand how money works, if you understand money and you're in those rooms and you've got all those connections, then all of a sudden, man, it's like, there might be 150 people, full stop total out of the 8 billion, might be 150 people that control economic policy globally. Imagine, you know, all 150. So it's like now all of a sudden it's not like they're all going to agree, but it's like you're in the room, you know the people and you know the mechanisms by which this stuff works. And so that's where I'm like, we don't hate that enough. We don't demand enough accountability at that level. This is why I'm so freaked out by the wef is it's like that's just them, that whole group of people getting together, dictating policy and feeling so.

[Co-host or Guest Commentator]

Right.

[Tom Bilyeu]

They just put that out in the

[Co-host or Guest Commentator]

OSA and saying it out loud.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Yeah, thank God.

[Co-host or Guest Commentator]

Right?

[Tom Bilyeu]

But still, it's like the fact that they openly go, the world is a controllable thing. We're going to control it, we're going to migrate it in this direction. And then there's like almost a helplessness to everybody else who really is just dealing with their life locally.

[Co-host or Guest Commentator]

Yeah, Money in politics, that's the first thing. Until that like unwinds, we're never going to have clear cut politicians, clear cut policies, clear cut nothing.

[Tom Bilyeu]

That's very true. And I wonder though, so given the ironclad law of all our oligarchy which says, and I think is accurate, no matter what, you will always have a small group of elites who run the thing. The world? Yes. Your country? Yes. Banking. Yes. Your household. Yes. There's always going to be, in whatever group, there's going to be a small group of people that lead and pull everybody along. So it's like, okay, in a world where everybody's got a camera all the time, but most people are too distracted and so they don't have the ability to completely eject out of the narrative because the narrative is the simplification of a wildly complicated world. So it's like, just give me the simplified version and then I'll know how to think through everything. So just tell me, how do Democrats think again? How do Republicans think again? Cool. Then I just. That's how I think. And so now I don't have to think through all of that. I've got my team, I've got my marching orders and I'm good to go. And so if the people at the top know that that's true and they know that social media is going to give you 10,000 narratives, so everybody's really going to hunger for just like simplified mind. But now there's a whole bunch of variants. It's like we become ironically easier to control. But I think that there is an opportunity in all of that for people to, if they're willing to spend the time to build their own worldview based on cause and effect. You can start to eject out of this. And if I can, I know that the way that people see me is so inaccurate that they're not going to understand the following statement. Because I've started learning about the. The physics like forces that influence economics. My rate of return from when I first got wealthy to now is dramatic because I have learned, oh, there's structural forces here. You can't know the outcomes, and there's always risk. And one of the things that I spend the most time for is just going, I. I can't see the future, so I need to, like, spread my risk out. But it is. It's wild to think that simply thinking obsessively about cause and effect, structural forces, that it's had this transformative impact on my ability to increase my wealth. Just really, really trying to get people to focus on that, because it will have dramatic impacts on your. On the tangible things in your life. We're hitting pause for a moment, but there's plenty more ahead, so don't go anywhere.

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[Tom Bilyeu]

Thanks for sticking around. Let's get right back into the action.

[Co-host or Guest Commentator]

Well, somebody else learned about cause and effect this weekend. Don Lemon, because now he's in jail. He was taken into federal custody last night in Los Angeles while he was covering the Grammy Awards. That'll be ironic if they arrested him while he was, like, in the suit. This is interesting. We're going to get into the who's who's and should, shoulda, coulda, wouldas and things like that, but specifically for Don. I'm not a fan of Don. I'm not team Don. Don is press, though. And typically, press is exempt from the same type of rules. If there's a protest happening downtown, press is cover the side. You can arrest all the protesters, but you wouldn't then arrest the press on top of that. It seems like those laws, those worlds are now starting to become blurred. Do you think that this is a violation of the first Amendment, or is it one of those things that he f'd around and found out.

[Tom Bilyeu]

To me, this is a question about what the laws are around private property. So you've got a church. I. I will say, whatever the law is, people need to understand if you're protesting something, you absolutely have a right to protest, but there are limits to where, when, how you can do it. And so I, not knowing the laws about whether they can go into a church, and I hear that there's a law, the face law or something like that, that was originally designed, I think, stop the KKK from doing something. I. I definitely do not have the details here. We'd have to look it up. But so if there's a law in the books that says you cannot go into a church and do all that stuff, then yes, it becomes a question of did he know that this was about to happen and was he actively involved in it versus simply documenting it it. And so if he violated the law and this is a policy that applies to everybody ever since that law was passed, then whatever he around and found out, however, the First Amendment is the most important thing that makes up America, and people ignore the First Amendment at their peril. So I would say, if this is a tie, do we want the tie to go to the runner, or do we want the tie to go to the government? I would say you want the tie to go to the runner. Like I would rather somebody get away with, because as far as I know, they, they were not violent inside of the church. Now, it's my understanding that they block stairways and things like that. And so the people that did that, that were basically separating parents from their children, which is the thing that I said, cool, arrest those guys. But if Don Lemon did not go block a staircase, then just like my take would be on January 6th, that if you were violent, lock them up. If you were not violent, then what the fuck are we even talking about? So now again, same thing. If, if there is a law that says you may not enter the Capitol building unlawfully or whatever, and it meets the definition of unlawful, then yes, you charge them with whatever that is. Trespassing, whatever. You certainly do not, in my opinion, ramp that up to insurrection or whatever. Just like I do not want to see people in Minnesota met with insurrection. I want to take each one of sayings individually. If you use your gun inappropriately, problem. If you are violent towards officers, problem. But if you are simply there yelling, screaming, but it meets all the criteria for a protest, great, no problem. I don't think there should be some blanket Edict. So that's how I feel about. Without knowing all the details about the church thing that Don Lemon was involved in, I would much rather see there be leniency for anybody that's on the bubble than to say, no, lump them in. Because it really. This is emotion on my part. It feels like people that lean right just hate Don Lemon, and so they want to see bad things happen to Don Lemon. I fall in the camp of these are all policies, and the people that hate me are one day going to leverage these policies. And so I don't want those policies leveraged against me when I'm the one who's like, no, no, we really need to make noise about this thing that I care about that I think is a big enough deal to go and do this thing. And so I just feel like people are blind to that with all the calls for arrest and lock them up and all that shit. So I don't share that read on society. I think, think at the level of policy.

[Co-host or Guest Commentator]

Yeah, I think that's a great point because I think on the wider scheme of things, talking with just any. Everything that's going on in Minnesota, people are saying, this person did a thing. They deserve what they got. And I'm talking both about Alex Peretti and Alex Pretty and Don Lemon as well, where it's like, I hate Don Lemon. He should be in jail. Where it's like, like, okay, you don't like Don Lemon. That's cool. Whatever. Like that. But okay, now let's say Nick Fuentes was outside of a protest in the same situation. They arrested him. Then you're gonna be crying and call it. You know what I mean? So it's like, don't say you like the policy when it's somebody that you hate, because when it's somebody you love, that policy is still intact. That policy is still valid. They can still do this. If it was Alex Jones in that church, would you guys be feeling the same way that you feel now? And if the answer is maybe no, a little bit different, then you don't like the policy. You just don't like the person and those things. Two things are different. And then even with this new release of the video with Preddy, like kicking out the tail lights and stuff like that, that was a dirtbag move. He's a dirtbag.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Yes.

[Co-host or Guest Commentator]

You shouldn't be doing that. That's foul. You spit on people. That's like a deal breaker. If you ever spit on me, it's like, don't spit on me and don't hang up on me. Like, those are the two things.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Oh, damn.

[Co-host or Guest Commentator]

If you hang up on me, I'm never calling you back. I will never call you. Like, it's so disrespectful. But it's one of those things. It's one of those things that, like, if you hang up on me, that doesn't mean, like, yes, now you deserve to die. You know what I mean? So I feel like you can still be a bad. You can still be a pos. I can still hate you, but your civil liberties don't get to. Don't get to get to be removed. Like, I hate Don Lemon, but he's still. I'm not gonna say Don Lemon's not allowed a First Amendment right. I don't think Alex Pretty should have been, like, stomping on the car, but I still don't think he should have, like, got shot 10 times.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Right.

[Co-host or Guest Commentator]

You know what I mean? And I just think this scale of, like, I don't like this person. So, yes, keep being mean to them. Keep doing it. Keep doing it. And then you don't realize, to your point, in four years, eight years, 12 years, whenever we flip the board, everything you hate about this one person is gonna be due to somebody that you love. And are you gonna. How are you gonna feel about it in that moment?

[Tom Bilyeu]

Yeah. Speaking of policy real quick, Marusha Dark brought up the KKK act, which was from 1871, which means you can't organize to violate people's civil rights, including the right to worship. So that's probably what they're arresting. Yeah. I mean, listen, that encapsulation sounds pretty damning for what they were doing. Now they're gonna say, no, no, it wasn't about interrupting their right to worship. This was about a guy that was all about ice. This is about finding a public figure, somebody who's prominent and, you know, really making noise around that. And the fact that it interrupted worship is incidental. And so that'll. The legal argument will go something like that. But if the policy says you can't interrupt worship as one of the things and well, around and find out. So. Yeah, but again, think of this stuff at the level of policy, regardless of whether you hate that person or not. Like Don Lemon, it just makes my skin crawl. There is something about the way that he interprets the world that. The way that he talks like, it just winds me up. He does not seem like somebody who's gracious or wants to understand people. So. But whatever. But at the same time, I just go, don Lemon is An avatar for me. So there are people that feel about me the way that I feel about Don Lemon. So now it's like, oh, if that policy is. Again, if he violated the law, just as if I violated the law, then I should get punished for doing so, and he should get punished for doing so. But when it comes to first Amendment, I would say you want to err on the side of letting people go a little farther than you're comfortable with, because it will come back round to you.

[Co-host or Guest Commentator]

Yeah, I was looking for this clip. I cannot find it. Tom Holman spoke yesterday in Minneapolis. And I've never felt like I needed an adult in the room more than I did listening to him speak. He was metered. He was firm. He wasn't part of me.

[Tom Bilyeu]

He even needed. He was the adult in the room.

[Co-host or Guest Commentator]

Yes. He, like, I feel like we finally got the adult in the room. He was like, yeah, what do you mean? We're definitely gonna deport people. I'm not gonna tell you. Legally, they can stay here. No, absolutely, we should do that. But I also know that if I work with the jails, I don't need 15 officers outside in the middle of the street either. I can have one officer going, right? So it's. It. So it was just like, okay, I can turn down the rhetoric and still do my job. I don't need all this noise. And he held some of the, like, politicians accountable. But what do you think about home and speech?

[Tom Bilyeu]

I. I loved it. I felt exactly the same. He is. What's interesting is to compare him to Bovino. Bovino has that, like, I hate it when people do this. I mean this literally in terms of affectation. He has that hit larian quality of riling people up from an emotional standpoint. Whose city is this? Right? Like, I don't know if this might be the one. Like, if. Just play this real fast.

[Co-host or Guest Commentator]

You.

[Tom Bilyeu]

You will see what I mean. Everybody gets it if they touch you. You hear what I'm saying?

[Co-host or Guest Commentator]

Less lethals.

[Tom Bilyeu]

We're gonna look at shipping, tractor, trailer,

[Co-host or Guest Commentator]

loads of that in here.

[Tom Bilyeu]

So you catch what I'm. It's all about us now. It ain't about them.

[Co-host or Guest Commentator]

Professional, legal, ethical, moral. You know what we're talking about. Legal, ethical, moral.

[Tom Bilyeu]

You're on camera.

[Co-host or Guest Commentator]

But other than that, what we do.

[Guest or Additional Commentator]

City is it.

[Co-host or Guest Commentator]

We need that on camera. City.

[Grainger Advertiser]

That.

[Tom Bilyeu]

That's the whole thing. Whose city is it? It's our city. So, I mean, listen, he doesn't have Hitler's charm, as weird of a sentence as that is to say. But he is. He's got that same attitude. I want to rile you up emotionally. I want to send you in. He's like a football coach. It's like, we're going to kill these guys. Like, let's go. Like, don't violate the rules. No yellow flags. But, like, if you can fucking grab their nuts when they're on the bottom of the pile, nobody sees it. Like, that's the vibe that I get here. Speaking of which, I know former NFL players. Can you believe when they're piled up like that, guys will try to jam their finger in the other guy's ass for real. Like, when I say, okay, these are people that played in the NFL at the highest level.

[Co-host or Guest Commentator]

There's more to this story. No, no, no.

[Tom Bilyeu]

They try to skip it.

[Co-host or Guest Commentator]

Something.

[Tom Bilyeu]

They try to, like, do the most underhanded shit to each other when they're in those fucking dog piles. Oh, oh, oh.

[Co-host or Guest Commentator]

When they're on top of their tackle, get that guy. When they were rallying, they're like, you

[Tom Bilyeu]

know, saying to the running back or whatever, like, trying to make him never want to carry the ball again. And I was like, God damn. So anyway, this guy gives me those vibes. So Homan is like the exact opposite of that. Homan has enough politician in him, but also feels like the kind of guy that's like, I just want to be left alone to do my job. Like, doesn't have aspirations to become the president or whatever. So he's got the ability, he's a steady hand, he's not easy to sway. He's got a sense of this is what we're doing, and we're doing this because it's the right thing to do and understands why he does what he does and is just going to push forward. Now, obviously, if you disagree with his politics, I don't expect him to be a popular figure, but he's not going to be divisive the way that Bovino who's like, all id, all emotion, rile people up, go out there, get them. This is our city. Fuck those guys. Like, that's such a different energy than somebody who comes in and is like, listen, we're Americans. We have a job to protect the citizens of this country. This is a moral obligation. But illegal immigrants are human and they need to be treated humanely. Now, he, as far as I know, he didn't say those things, but I'm just saying, like, that kind of energy is very different than, this is our fucking city. Go get those guys. So it's nice to See the switch and I expect a dramatically different result because of it.

[Co-host or Guest Commentator]

Agreed.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Yeah.

[Co-host or Guest Commentator]

And he said he, he had conversations with both the mayor and the governor. So hopefully, and ags, hopefully this calms tensions down in Minnesota and people can leave and go home and we can stop this nonsense because they've been doing all this and it's been like negative 17 degrees outside. So I don't even know how you still protest when it's cold. Yeah.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Wait till it warms up.

[Co-host or Guest Commentator]

Yeah.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Like I was saying this before, if this had happened in the summer. Oh, my God.

[Co-host or Guest Commentator]

All right. A lot happened with the Fed yesterday. I don't even know where we want to start. Because Trump dropped his nomination, the Fed kept the rate steady.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Let's start with the Fed, okay. Because this I think is ultimately the, the bigger thing. And then we'll get into Trump's nomination, which is pretty surprising. And I think there's a lot to talk about there. But the honest truth is the Fed has lost complete control over the economy, but they're pretending that they're still in charge. Per Powell's recent announcement, the Fed will be holding rates steady as Trump promises to replace Jerome Powell with someone who will finally, Trump's mind, lower rates. Now, as I've said many times, the Fed is damned if they do and damned if they don't. So rates are going to go down and inflation is going to go up. My core thesis goes like this. We are in fiscal dominance. Fiscal dominance means the Fed has lost control. Jerome Powell, when asked directly, wouldn't even comment on the fact that the dollar just hit a four year low. He was basically like, I, I don't even care. It was so wild because he can't, he can't comment on it. The reality is that the national debt has taken over the debt and the required interest payments are going to dictate monetary policy. Let me say that again. The debt and the interest rate are going to dictate monetary policy. It's not going to be the Fed, no matter who, who Trump puts in position. By the way, we are now entering the end game of a multi decade debt bubble that within the next 10 years, my best guess on the math, will bankrupt America. The recent surge of gold past 5,000 and silver past 100. Is the global financial market finally pricing in the inevitability of American sovereign debt becoming a crisis? Okay, the inevitability of that. If there is a crisis of some kind, things could unwind even faster than the 10 year mark. So in my own mind, I think of this as sometime between today and 10 years, we will find ourselves in a Severn debt crisis. I very much doubt it will be that fast. But if there's a crisis, it can move very quickly. If there's not a crisis, we'll just see a gradual decline until everywhere looks like Minnesota and America tears us up apart from the inside. And this is the important part, because I know people think I'm being bombastic. That is what all empires before us have done. All of them have either ended like Britain ended up in World War II. So it played out differently. But I hope we can say that World War II is a pretty brutal price to pay for the end of your empire. Now, unless we ourselves end up in a war with China, we can expect this to be playing out at the level of just a loss of international confidence in the US to be able to pay back its debts, which means there will be a smaller appetite for debt. All right, but let's set aside war with another country aside for now. And let's always remember that no matter what we're going to talk about here today, because I know people, I don't feel doom and gloom inside. So I want to make sure you guys aren't operating from that perspective. You can always protect yourself and your family as best you can. No one can see the future clearly, but there is cause and effect. Here goes like this. We are in a debt trap. The US national debt is now over $38 trillion, and it has reached a point where interest payments alone are consuming an ungodly portion of the federal budget. It's the second largest item on our federal budget. It's bigger than the military, at least until Trump bumps it to 1.5 trillion. Then, hey, it would drop back down to the third largest item. The government cannot afford higher for longer interest rates without total insolvency. Okay, Again, we're up against mathematical forces. So the. The thing that Trump is trying to do is lower rates in the short term to buy himself time for AI and all of the investments that he wants us to believe are being made in America and the deregulation to pay off and we grow our way out of this. And I won't say it's not possible, but I will just say it would be ahistoric. You might buy yourself a generation, maybe. And I know that is wonderfully exciting, but I would put that at very low odds. Therefore, the Fed has to capitulate. They're not going to want to. Powell is going to want to keep rates high, but the political pressure will mount until finally they do, or Powell will simply be replaced in May. Now, hiding in that phrase the political pressure will mount is a very important idea because you won't see that as clearly in the math. But once you understand populism, then you understand what ends up happening is I literally mean everywhere starts to look like Minnesota. Remember, I believe Minnesota is an economic problem. Minnesota is not just about immigration. It's about populism rising in the face of a global K shaped economy. I think it would have remained a fringe thing had the global K shaped economy not taken over. So don't think of the Fed as being confused. They just can't say what they're actually thinking. The markets spook way too easily. So I think Powell understands all of this. Like if he and I were sitting here, he would argue, he would have, and I'm sure very good points. But the reality is that he can't say all the things that he believes to be true because markets respond crazily to news. I know we've all heard that buzz about you sell the news. But man, when you realize just how volatile news makes the market, the Fed has to choose their words very carefully. So you're not seeing a representation of what Jerome Powell or what the Fed actually thinks. You're seeing the version they believe that they can present to the public, which give like little winks and nods to where they're actually going. But to prevent a government default and quite honestly, a banking collapse, the Fed understands that they have to return to quantitative easing. And in fact they already have via something that's being dubbed stealth quantitative easing. And this stealth quantitative easing devalues the dollar. Now, instead of calling it quantitative easing, the Fed is using a technical term called reserve management purchases. They claim that this isn't stimulus, that's just meant to boost the economy. They're calling it a technical fix to ensure banks have enough cash in reserves to keep the plumbing of the financial system from freezing. As of right now, literally right now, today, the Fed is right now, today creating $40 billion in new money every month to buy short term treasury bills.

[Co-host or Guest Commentator]

Money machine go brrrr.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Money machine is smoking. It's going $40 billion a month. Man, this is wild. By focusing on short term bills that are maturing three years or less, rather than long term bonds, the Fed argues they aren't trying to manipulate long term interest rates. Let's be clear, everything the Fed does is meant to manipulate the market. That is the design of a central bank. Literally it. Whether they will say it out loud or not. The only reason to create a central bank is to be able to smooth out the pain and suffering so that you don't get these acute crashes, you don't get acute bank failures that you don't get 1929. But the price you pay for that privilege is a K shaped economy. So in any one moment it feels awesome. Everybody's protected, but over the long run, it creates what we're living through now. Whether it's a three month bill or a 30 year bond, the Fed is creating money out of thin air to buy government debt. Okay, that, that just is what's happening. And that is by definition, quantitative easing. Now, with the national debt over $38 trillion, the treasury is flooding the market with new bonds to pay its own bills. There aren't enough private buyers already to soak up all the debt that we have to deal with without interest rates skyrocketing. Remember, interest rates skyrocket because people don't want to buy the debt at the current return that they're going to get. So that return goes up and up and up and up and up and up and up. And the money becomes more and more and more and more, more and more expensive. And so for the US government to pay the interest on its own debt, it becomes more and more and more and more expensive. And that's exactly how we will bankrupt the country. Okay, maybe it doesn't happen in a year, maybe it doesn't happen in five years, but like I said, there's nothing on the horizon other than promises that will stop it from happening within the next 10 years. Now the it from happening is when you go bankrupt, you don't technically go bankrupt, you just keep printing your money. So now you end up doing a software default. But that soft default makes that K shaped economy get absolutely insane. And only the ultra, ultra, ultra ultra wealthy can afford a stick of gum. I mean, it gets insane. This is where people are wearing the flour sacks as dresses, which actually happened in the 1930s. So by purchasing the Treasuries through this program that we were just talking about, it's called rmp. The Fed keeps interest rates down and thus keeps the government's borrowing costs from exploding, effectively acting as a backstop for the Treasury's overspending. And voila. You steal from everyone. You keep deficit spending like crazy, and people with the right basket of assets just keep getting richer until the music stops, the currency hyperinflates, or we find ourselves in full scale war or revolution. Now the great irony here is after years of trying to Shrink their balance via quantitative tightening. The Fed's balance sheet is once again growing, meaning they're buying up all these assets. And anytime the balance sheet is expanding, you are inflating the currency. Now, unlike in 2008, which was a localized crisis in housing and banking, this is a currency crisis. Okay? Imagine hearing that with alarm bells, flashing red lights, me jumping up and down, screaming, flipping over the table. A currency crisis is a totally different ball game than a sector problem. Even a sector as big as housing or banking, okay, this is the absolute foundation of everything. In 2008, the dollar was still a safe haven. Today, the dollar is the asset that people are fleeing. And by people, I largely mean the central banks around the world. They no longer want to hold US debt, they don't want to hold dollars. What they want to hold is gold. And that's why gold and silver, things like that, are hitting record highs while the dollar index drops. Now, as the dollar weakens, the cost of imports and energy will spike, leading to persistent inflation. And when you combine this with a cooling economy, you risk something called stagflation. Stagflation is when your wages are flat, but things are getting more expensive. In short, the government is printing money to pay interest on its debt, which is destroying the dollar's value. And the soaring price of gold is the fire alarm that's signaling that the world is losing faith in the entire US financial system. And people do not understand just how much of our lifestyle is predicated on debt. You've got consumer debt, massive. It's how we fund our lifestyles. All those credit cards that you're able to max out. We've got corporate debt, how we're able to build all the AI infrastructure. We've got federal debt, how we're able to pay for entitlements, the military, the roads, all of that stuff. And we have gotten so ridiculous. Oh, and by the way, the fraud, we have to pay for that. We've gotten so ridiculous at our deficit spending, we've let that get so out of control that every year we stack another $2 trillion to our national debt, we are going to have to balance our budget. Now, we're not going to, that's the bad news. But if we don't and we keep doing what we're doing, which apparently is the plan K shape economy runs out of control and eventually America has to hyper inflate its currency to be able to drive the value of the debt down so far that they can pay it off easily. Because remember, your debt is just a set Number of dollars. And so if you print more of those dollars, then you can just pay it off. And what ends up happening is you pay it off by destroying your own currency. And so it is an inhonest way to default. You're still defaulting, which is why I call it bankruptcy. You're still defaulting even though you technically paid it off, but you paid it off by draining the purchasing power of the dollar. It's no bueno.

[Co-host or Guest Commentator]

It's the most noble trap, but yet I feel like we're about to walk right into it.

[Tom Bilyeu]

I'm not going to give you that it's a noble trap. I think that. We're all stuck in the human mind works in a certain way. I don't think that people do it to be kind of. I think they recognize that it will keep them in power. Like, I'll make a statement very clear. If giving people free things cost Mom Donnie the election, he wouldn't have done it. Politicians will do and say whatever they need to. They follow the populace. They don't lead the populace. That's the confusion. That's why I say Donald Trump was summoned. Now, he's a personality type. He existed before he became president, but there are plenty of eras where Donald Trump would never have become president. Never, ever, ever, ever, ever had he run against Bill Clinton in the 90s. Get the out of here. The vibe was so different. People have been like, no way. So somebody like that just, they're. They are a product of their ascension, is a product of the time. And so politicians that rise to that level, it's really just what's gonna keep me in power. And so I'll. I hate saying this example because I have so much reverence for what this person means historically, but Lincoln didn't start down the path of the Civil War to free the slaves. He did that once he realized, oh, wait a second, the bankers are all funding both sides of the war. Which is smart, by the way. Very smart. Smart. Always fund both sides. That way, whoever wins, you come out. Yeah, it's. You're hedging. So it's a. From a purely monetary position. It's a very wise strategy. So he saw that's what people were doing, and so then he does the Emancipation Proclamation, so that if you were funding the other side, you were specifically funding to keep people in slavery. Now, what Americans probably don't realize is that England was the first country to abolish slavery. And they sailed all over the world, taking on slave ships and trying to end it. And it cost Them a ton of money and a ton of lives because they just got to the moral reality of it faster than anybody else. So now, at a time where England is like, the most powerful country in the world, they're the ones saying we can't fund the other side because it's about slavery and we don't believe in slavery. So it was a genius move on Lincoln's part, but keep in mind, it was about winning. It wasn't about, like, this is a moral thing, and I wanted to do whatever the fuck now. He stood by it. He ended up giving his life for it, all of that. So, you know, I don't want to discredit the man, but I say that so that people understand what humans are really like.

[Co-host or Guest Commentator]

We play to win, you know, and that's hilarious, too, because that kind of reminds me of what Trump said about housing when he was like, here it

[Tom Bilyeu]

is, when he goes full retard.

[Guest or Additional Commentator]

Existing housing. People that own their homes, we're going to keep them wealthy. We're going to keep those prices up. We're not going to destroy the value of their homes so that somebody that didn't work very hard can buy a home. We're going to get. We're going to make it easier to buy. We're going to get interest rates down. But I want to protect the people that, for the first time in their lives, feel good about themselves. They feel like they've, you know, that they're wealthy people, and I want them to understand it. You know, there's so much talk about, oh, we're going to drive housing prices down. I don't want to drive housing prices down. I want to drive housing prices up for people that own their homes.

[Co-host or Guest Commentator]

You know what I mean? So it's like, yeah, you're not saying this to who you think you're saying it to. And then that's when I realized, like, oh, yeah, you're talking to your base.

[Tom Bilyeu]

This is full. So it makes me very, very sad. But I am not in the least bit surprised he's going to have to message things so that homeowners don't freak out. Yeah, but the reality is you. You have to think about, I don't have kids, but I think about the kids a lot. Like, what's the world that you're leaving them? And this is one of those times where I wish people would live forever. They'd think a lot more about the future. So you can't just say what's good for me in this exact moment. You've got to Say I need the context of my life to have a certain setup, and part of that context needs to be safety and stability.

[Co-host or Guest Commentator]

Yeah.

[Tom Bilyeu]

And when you do things that do not give you safety and stability, I'm just like, what are these people doing? So this keeping housing prices high means that you're limiting supply, like, by its very nature. And also in our wonderful circumstances, that is very sarcastic. You do it through inflation. And so some of the. They feel wealthy is all fake. Like, it's not real. The dollar's just declining in value. I hate how true that is and how it's just impossible to get somebody who's too busy to spend time thinking about this stuff to really stop and think. They just go, bro, my house is worth more. What the are you talking about? And so. And I get it. And listen, if you're using a house in that way and you recognize you're paying a whole lot of money to protect your money from inflation. So it's like at a casino, you can place the insurance bet. Like, I don't know if you've ever seen those where you, like, you put money down against, like, the big pot or something. I don't even know how it works. But you put an insurance bet down so that you don't totally miss out out on whatever, and that's what this is. Owning a home is one of the worst ways to protect yourself from inflation. It's just the way that people understand. So the vast majority of people are going to do it. And he's right. They feel wealthy for the first time, and they feel good about themselves. He's very right about all that stuff. Like, homeownership feels good. And given that we're still overwhelmingly heterosexual at the population level, women are going to bark at men to buy them a house. And so now you've got. I, as a guy, want to get laid. To get laid, I've got to please my wife or girlfriend, whatever, and my girlfriend just won't stop banging on about me owning a house. And so there's this evolutionary pressure to get you to accidentally do the right thing. And so I'm like, okay, great. Like, that's the setup. It works. Let people do it. But here we are, breaking it once again. So he is going to do foolish things that will keep the price of housing high, and you'll have a small group of people that are. What were we just scrolling past? Oh, is this visible to the.

[Co-host or Guest Commentator]

No, no, no, no, no, no, no.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Chat Drew. Drew's algo is questionable at best.

[Co-host or Guest Commentator]

I'm doing A community check, because I'm going to the Iran story next. But there was. Somebody said that this was an old video, so I was like, okay, let

[Tom Bilyeu]

me go to the interesting. Okay, yeah, very possible. So we'll get to that in a second. So anyway, he's going to keep housing prices high. He'll do it through inflation, he'll do it through limited supply, and you just basically lock in elder Millennials and up were able to own a house, and everybody else is fucked. And that's how you end up in revolution. It's just so wild. This feels so predictable.

[Co-host or Guest Commentator]

Yeah. So I know there's like a whole armada moving into Iran right now, and we're supposed to just be sitting there. Trump had that spicy tweet a couple days ago, no nuclear weapons. But it seems like this is legit, that there is still people protesting. People are still.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Is this video old or not?

[Co-host or Guest Commentator]

It's not. I'm just trying to take, like, another angle to see, like, maybe I can get more context behind it, but it seems like there is, like, a energy behind.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Let me give you the context. It goes something like this. So. So from the Iranian perspective, if you've been being dominated by your government for almost 50 years and you suddenly realize that you have the backing, for whatever reason, of the most powerful military on planet Earth, you've got your big brother standing there. You're far more likely to get into a fight when you feel like somebody's got your back and they're not going to let you be slaughtered en masse. And so this really could be the tipping point that. That everybody in Iran has been waiting for. So I am extremely encouraged. My fingers are very much crossed, as this is partly a proxy war between Russia and China United, who are doing naval exercises together with Iran going up against the US Which I think have very impure motives. I don't think anybody's going to be surprised to hear me say that. I think we have very impure motives, but it's being leveraged, hopefully, by the people of Iran who want to be free. And I don't think there's nearly enough energy in America celebrating our freedom, celebrating the fact that people were willing to die so that we could have our freedoms, how important freedom is to progress. Because freedom is the thing that allows you to think through problems. And when you're not allowed to speak freely, you're not allowed to think freely, literally, by definition. And you're not allowed to test and you're not allowed to try things, and you're not allowed to question orthodoxy and things stall out. You don't have to think back to any more than 2020 when we weren't allowed to question the science. And all of a sudden it's like the progress that was being made slowed down. It went underground. People weren't allowed to say things. It was just absolutely wild. And that is how people get stuck. And so the Iranian people, from where I'm sitting, I do not represent the Iranian people in any way, shape, or form, but from where I'm sitting, anybody that is forced to. To align to theocratic beliefs, you are in trouble. And just as believe it was Galileo that ended up being put on house arrest for the rest of his life for saying that the earth revolved around the sun, which is absolute insanity. You end up in stupid things like that. Or Socrates, who was. He chose death, but he was either going to be exiled or put to death. Death for corrupting the youth via the Socratic method, which we now use in, like, grade school. So it. It's just absolutely wild. What. When you have a theocratic notion of how the world ought to be, how the world is, and you force everybody to conform, everything just grinds to a halt, including human dignity, including human safety. Because the only way to keep a regime like the Iranian regime running is to kill and kill and kill and kill. And you do that to keep everybody else terrified. That sucks. That is not a way to live. So, yeah, I mean, I hope that this comes from the Iranian people themselves, that they rise up. It's incredibly inspiring and exciting to see them still marching in the streets because on the low end, people are saying 5,000 killed. Think about that. I think that's more than were killed in nine, 11, more than were killed in October 7th. And on the high end, people are saying up to 40,000 people killed. And so that took two years of Israel, Palestine to reach those kind of numbers.

[Co-host or Guest Commentator]

That's a population of Greenland, right?

[Tom Bilyeu]

Yeah. Yeah, it's wild. We'll see. But hopefully this plays out positively, sending all the love and encouragement to the people in Iran, who. I know. And Farhad, I think of you often, so hope you are doing. Doing well, my friend. And I wish that for everybody there.

[Co-host or Guest Commentator]

Okay. There was a viral tweet that kind of went off about Gus Fring saying he's trying to all 50, 50 million people, which, I mean, it's not quite

[Tom Bilyeu]

what he said, but it's. It's spicy nonetheless.

[Giancarlo Esposito]

This is time for a revolution. It's time for it. And they don't even know that's what they're starting. You know, some very rich are exerting their power to suppress our own people, thus creating a feeling of civil war in the streets. Preparing the hate. The haters to hate, teaching them how to shoot. They're not even trained right to kill. This is all a preparation for a very insidious problem that's happening in our world. And from. For me, I have to speak out that we will not be iced out. This is not going to happen. They can't take us all down. If the whole world showed up on Putin's doorstep or on the Iranians doorstep or in Washington, it would. They'll kill 550 million, however, but that

[Tom Bilyeu]

escalated quickly would survive.

[Giancarlo Esposito]

This is time for revolution, bro.

[Tom Bilyeu]

When you kill 50 million people, you're talking. That's the scale of World War II. So he's like, you know what? Like, even if they kill 50 million of us, does it matter? So I'm just like, listen, there is. Thomas Jefferson was right when he said that liberty comes with the requirement to water it with the blood of patriots and tyrants alike. So. So he's not wrong. But boy, do you need to be thoughtful about where that line is. Because man one rolling up on Putin's doorstep, I assure you he can and will kill 50 million people. So I wouldn't. He's not the guy to play with. You'll notice that in Iran, they're only able to do it because you've got the US military on their side. So be a little more careful. And if what he's really talking about is locally here at home, home. And he was just trying to temper it by not just saying roll up on the White House. Then it's like, okay, please tell me the exact policy that you want history to remember that you sent 50 million people to die for. Exactly. Now, I will say that he is not wrong about the people are in control and people should never lose sight of that. People should never fear their government. Government and their government should be scared to death of the people. That is for sure. Do I love the flippant way that he's talking now? No. Would I much rather see him help people find a path to de escalation? Yes. Do I think that a lot of people just get caught up in their feels and they speak from like, what feels? Like he's saying words that make him feel invigorated versus words that actually are going to lead to an outcome that's useful. So, yeah, a bit silly in that sense.

[Co-host or Guest Commentator]

I wanted to frame this with another

[Tom Bilyeu]

by the way, that Tweet had like 17 million views, so people definitely felt some kind of way about that.

[Co-host or Guest Commentator]

It's probably because he was dressed that way. But I wanted to frame with this because I thought this was a very interesting perspective. And me as a 53 year old, you know, sometimes I have to look back and think what the youth are going through. Jasmine Son said, if you're 21 now, Trump has been president or running for president since you were 10. This obviously has gargantuan consequences for Gen Z's views on democracy, virtue, success, and basically everything else else. Trump shaped a whole generation's personal character, and we still don't talk about it enough. When I was growing up, presidential meant something very different than somebody who's 10 now growing up.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Yeah.

[Co-host or Guest Commentator]

And so lawfare, pettiness, senators who are on podcasts, all this is now normalized. So I don't see us when we always say we need to kind of fan the flames and go back to the middle and realize that, you know, we need to go back to how it used to be. There is a whole generation of people who are like, what this is, is, isn't this how politics works? We're supposed to be like this, right? I'm supposed to hate the other side. I'm supposed to call them names. I'm not supposed to like them. What do you mean? So, like, are we fundamentally teaching our children. I'll start it there. The wrong way to approach civics in the US aggressively.

[Tom Bilyeu]

First of all, from what I hear coming out of the education system, the education system is a complete joke. It is not teaching people how to think. It is telling them what to think. And. And that already is a nightmare. You're abstracting cause and effect grotesquely. You are not teaching people how to find compromise and how to understand. Your way is not the right way. Your way is just your way, which would definitely be one of the things I would want to get people across. And as a psa, I will often have a flash in my head that says, this is the hill I'm going to die on. And I almost always stop myself from saying it, but here is the hill that I will actually die on on. Because I love and care about everybody that can hear my voice right now. I will tell you, your emotions do not have your best interests at heart. And anytime someone looks at you and tells you, you're invalidating their emotions or whatever. Be thoughtful in that moment because I'm assuming that person loves and. Or is somebody that you love and care about. And all that. And so you don't want to intentionally upset them. That's not my message. But do not get sucked into that argumentation. That argument makes no sense whatsoever. For that person, for that person to have the life that they want to live. They must learn to use their emotions but know when to step outside of it. I would not want to live a life devoid of emotion. I also would not want to live a life where I'm a slave to my emotions. So just as I would not want to live in a world where I had no hungers whatsoever. I don't want to be a drug addict, I don't want to be a food addict. I don't want to be addicted to anything. Anything. And I find that people get trapped inside of their emotions to the point where they do not have any interest in seeing the world as it actually is. They only want to interface with the world as it makes them feel. And that is pure insanity for them. Because now your emotions are going to lead you all over the place, most certainly towards ruin. And they are a device that evolution came up with to make it possible for you to choose between A and B. They are not meant to be an arbiter of truth. They are meant to be a thing that helps you move forward. Once I understood, oh, my emotions are just trying to drive me forward, but they don't have long term planning. I have to be in control of the long term planning and then I have to figure out which of these paths actually leads me towards that thing that I want, want. So anyway, I just. Oh man, it really, it makes me as sad to see a type 2 diabetic keep eating terrible food until their feet get removed, they go blind, and then ultimately die far too young as it does to watch somebody who lives their entire life by emotion. It is just as self destructive as the person who's eating themselves to death. Death. And somehow people have convinced themselves that it actually makes sense to be mad at somebody for quote unquote invalidating their feelings. That is wild. Your feelings don't have any validity. They're just feelings. It just means your brain over your dent of your birth and the things you've experienced reacts in that moment in a certain way to something in that moment. It'll be different from next moment to next moment. I could give you a simple chemical compound and it will completely change all of your emotions. If that doesn't make you realize, oh, this is, this is all just chemical processing. So did you know that a judge who's just come back from lunch is more likely to pardon somebody than the person who does it just before lunch because they're fucking hungry.

[Co-host or Guest Commentator]

That was a crazy step when I found that out.

[Tom Bilyeu]

I don't understand how people don't hear something like that and go, oh, that's me too. Do wild. I need to be very careful because I'm stuck in this body and this body is doing things that do not lead me towards the things that I want. And I don't want to be a slave to my emotions or my biology, etc. Etc. And there are ways not out of it, because it's also beautiful. It's wonderful. Emotions are incredible. Love is one of the greatest gifts that life will ever give you.

[Co-host or Guest Commentator]

At the same time, you know, imagine if I had to do an extra 18 months because you wanted a burger in 10 minutes. Oh, my goodness. That speech was crazy.

[Tom Bilyeu]

That is brutal.

[Co-host or Guest Commentator]

Yes. And then we also had that stat about women judges versus men judges and stuff like that, too.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Like, I don't know that stat, but something tells me it's.

[Co-host or Guest Commentator]

No, I forgot about it when we were talking about the feminization of society and they were like, law schools have, like, changed and stuff like that. Okay, everybody, it's time for everybody's favorite segment.

[Tom Bilyeu]

It. And by the way, just really fast to tidy up any reactions from chat. I'm as pulled by my emotions as anyone else. I simply don't trust my emotions. So do I do stupid things because I get emotional? Of course I do. I'm just saying I don't go to bat for it. So when I do something stupid based on my emotions, I go, that was really stupid. That was an emotional decision. I don't go. So don't invalidate my emotions.

[Co-host or Guest Commentator]

Ipso facto. All right, let's grab these. Let's grab these tinfoil hats and let's start with aliens, and then we'll get into the other one. UK filmmaker Mark Christopher Lee claims he was contacted by a Trump administration insider who says President Trump has already written an historical UFO disclosure speech confirming humanity is not alone. Now, this is on the back. Remember a couple weeks ago, the bank of England was like, don't talk about the aliens yet. I need to sell my bonds. So I they starting to connect. Lee initially said the speech was planned for a un addressed and later claimed the insider provided a specific date, July 8, 2026, tied to the Roswell anniversary.

[Tom Bilyeu]

I mean, listen, this is. This is one of those things that I would love for it to be real. I would love.

[Co-host or Guest Commentator]

You would love.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Love. Oh, my God in all capital letters. There is virtually nothing that you could tell me that would be more exciting. If you told me we could bend space time, I'd be a little more excited. But if you told me that aliens were real, I'd be like, that is awesome. I'm so excited. I just assume one of two things is true. Either we're in a simulation and they're just simulating us, and so there's no need to render intelligent life elsewhere up until the point where we can bend space time. And then you would render them because it's just so much processing power to actually be running the other civilization. So they would just be probabilities for now. And then when we get to the point where we can bend space time, or if the logic of the simulation is running something behind the scenes where it's like, well, other civilizations always have this constant probability of finally doing it, and then, boom, they enter our airspace or whatever, and then they sort of become real. They start being rendered, at least the ones that we can see. So, yeah, like, cool, I would buy that. Or there are aliens and we just aren't close enough to see them. Like, it doesn't make any sense that in a universe as absolutely staggeringly large as ours is, like people, they cannot comprehend. However big you think it is, you need to multiply it by infinity and an ice cream cone. It is so much bigger than people realize. And so the odds that we're like, the only. Get out of here. No way. So in for my money, one of those two things is true.

[Co-host or Guest Commentator]

I went to. You know where I went? I went to the poly market. It's a 9% chance that they confirm it before 2027. If we bet a hundred dollars is $1000 time. Eleven hundred dollars.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Yeah.

[Co-host or Guest Commentator]

I don't.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Well, so here's what's interesting. And this is, is this is one. I promise you there are going to be lawsuits over this one because they say confirm. Because the US could do something that a very substantive portion of the world goes, that is confirmation. So, like, all of this bet hangs on the word confirm, because there were ones I forget about. Will Trump invade Venezuela and then he goes in and grabs Maduro and they paid out the people who said that it wouldn't happen. And so people are like, what? Like, he went in with a military and snatched this guy and they killed people on the ground? Like, how are you not calling that an invasion? And so it was like, they didn't stay, not an invasion. And so this is where whatever Trump says, people like, me, first of all, are going to dismiss it. I'll be like, huh? Yeah, right. Even if Trump believes it, I'm not going to believe it. Like, like, literally, homie would have to walk in the room, be like, no, Tom, for real, I'm an alien. I come from Alpha Centauri. That's how we got here. Let me walk you through the physics. I get Eric Weinstein to come in, validate the physics for me. Like, then I'd be like, damn. I guess so up till that point, I'm assuming everything is AI and governmental manipulation. I really believe that entrepreneurs are effectively going to save the world. When you think about the budget deficit and things that we are dealing with, we are in a world where if you want to get out of these problems, you've got to reduce the amount of money that you spend or you've got to, well, you definitely have to do that. And then you've got to make more money. Those are going to be the keys. So we've got coming up a. That's so very small. Can't read. So we've got coming up up a masterclass we're going to be doing. You guys are going to be able to try this risk free. So everything that we do is free. It's Thursday, February 5th at 1pm live. And you guys are going to be able to join me and learn how to build a five member AI team. So if you're going to be launching your company, do it with AI. I just cannot stress enough how big of a difference this makes. So when you leverage AI to build these days, you can do it for essentially next to nothing. And so we're going to teach you how to build those first five members, how to leverage them. We've got a special surprise, so if you guys come, you're going to get something that will make starting your own company much, much, much easier. Again, this is Thursday, February 5th, 1pm Pacific. So make sure that you show up. We've got a bonus that we're going to be giving away that's worth hundreds of dollars. So do not miss us. All right, join us live again. It is free. I hope to see you guys there and I hope to see you guys February 5th at 1pm Love you. All right, later.