The New Cuban Missile Crisis: Why Venezuela Just Became a Powder Keg | Tom Bilyeu Show

Summary

Impact Theory Podcast Summary

Episode Title: The New Cuban Missile Crisis: Why Venezuela Just Became a Powder Keg
Host: Tom Bilyeu (with co-host/guest Host 1 and guest expert segments) Date: December 4, 2025
Theme/Purpose:
This episode explores escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and Venezuela, drawing parallels to the Cuban Missile Crisis. The hosts break down events involving US military maneuvers, Venezuela’s global alliances, contested election tech, narco-boat strikes, global responses from Russia and China, US domestic policy shifts, and the role of propaganda and values in shaping both international relations and internal politics.

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Main Themes and Purpose

• Analyze current US-Venezuela tension in light of recent military and political developments
• Examine how oil, narco-trafficking, cyber-warfare, and foreign influence claims intertwine
• Investigate narratives and propaganda on all sides, including leaders’ messaging and public perception
• Discuss wider context: global instability, Russia-Ukraine, China-Taiwan, and US domestic shifts
• Offer insights to equip listeners to navigate a rapidly changing and complex geopolitical era

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Are We Facing a New Cuban Missile Crisis?

[01:00–02:30]

• Airspace shut down, bombers in Caribbean, and US military bases reopen in Puerto Rico.
• Host draws a parallel with the Cuban Missile Crisis, but argues, “I don’t get any of those alarm bells going off. China has backed off, Iran has backed off, Russia has backed off…leaving Maduro isolated on this.” ([01:56], Host 2)
• Trump’s stance interpreted as personal: “If you’re going to mess with me, I’m 100% going to put the full might of the US military behind me, and I’m not afraid to flex.” ([05:08], Host 2)
• Trump uses unpredictability and chaos as leverage: “He creates just enough uncertainty in the minds of the people that he’s negotiating with…that’s what it feels like he’s doing.” ([07:39], Host 2)

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2. Venezuela, Voting Machines, and Global Influence

[08:46–12:38]

• New angle: Trump retweets theories linking Venezuela, Dominion voting machines, Smartmatic, George Soros, and alleged foreign election manipulation.
• Elon Musk is alleged to have helped block cyber interference: “Musk tracked down the IP addresses of the Dominion office in Serbia and rendered their computer useless before the election.” ([09:22], Host 1 quoting social media commentary)
• Discussion of Musk’s capabilities: “There is something utterly fascinating about someone who is, from a work ethic standpoint, just maniacal…I would rather burn out under Musk than be bored.” ([12:20], Host 2, quoting a Musk employee’s perspective)
• The hosts remain skeptical but intrigued, noting these claims are still unproven: "Now look, this is early. We don't know if this is actually what happened. But the fact again that Trump retweeted it tells me that there's enough validity here to be interesting." ([13:20], Host 2)

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3. US Narco-Boat Strikes and Congressional Response

[14:18–16:47]

• 21 US strikes on Venezuelan drug boats; concerns over constitutionality without Congressional war powers resolution.
• Moral debate over “double strikes” on survivors after narco-boat explosions: “I cannot mentally map…either you don’t want to see these people drone struck, or they should be able to drone strike them 57 times and it doesn’t make any difference.” ([23:10], Host 2)
• Insight into escalation logic: “It's both real and a cover story…it's far more complicated, and it has to do with voting machines, oil, and China.” ([21:01], Host 2)
• Guest expert highlights intelligence involved: “Every one of those drug boats is tied to a designated terrorist organization. We know who's on it, what they're doing, what they're carrying.” ([15:11], Guest Expert)

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4. Maduro’s Narrative and the Politics of Propaganda

[16:47–20:45]

• Maduro insists: “The United States is planning to plunder Venezuelan oil…that will not happen, not while I'm leading this nation.” ([16:47], Host 1 quoting Maduro)
• Host critiques the power of propaganda: “All of these politicians are absolute masters at the game of propaganda…they try to instantly narrow you down to one choice in their ideal world.” ([17:37], Host 2)
• Breaks down Venezuela’s oil situation: “People don’t know, Venezuela has really dirty oil…until recently, there was only one place that could refine that oil, and that was in Texas. Then China comes in and builds a refinery.” ([20:04], Host 2)

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5. Russia, Ukraine, and the Shifting Global Order

[24:08–32:55]

• Putin’s rhetoric: “We’re not going to have a war with Europe…but if Europe suddenly wants to wage a war with us and starts it, we are ready right away…There can be no doubt about that.” ([25:20], Host 1 translating Putin)
• Host contends this is largely bluff due to Russia stalled in Ukraine: “That, I will tell you, is a bluff because he’s stalled out in Ukraine.” ([26:27], Host 2)
• Historical context on war, territorial expansion, and the economics of conflict—Ukraine as the “American West” for both Hitler and Putin: “You have this extremely fertile land that also lets Russians expand…when you can deliver prosperity to your people, you will be welcomed as a hero.” ([29:06], Host 2)

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6. Ukraine’s Leadership Crisis and the Dangers of Instability

[33:39–36:27]

• Reports that Zelensky may be forced out; risk of instability/power vacuum.
• Host warns: “If it just creates instability…could be an absolute catastrophe…that is not a good feeling. I don’t like that, I would hate that.” ([34:41], Host 2)
• Discussion of historical consequences when strong leaders are removed, with reference to failed opportunities to stop dangerous individuals early.

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7. US Immigration Pause and Value Debates

[38:46–47:31]

• Trump issues immigration pause for 19 countries following Capitol attack by an Afghan refugee.
• Host frames it as a logical, values-driven move: “You have to be extraordinarily careful with your immigration policy…this is exactly how you weaken your own nation from within, is you bring people that do not assimilate.” ([39:49], Host 2)
• Emphasis on incentives: “Show me the incentive and I’ll show you the outcome.” ([41:48], Host 2 quoting Charlie Munger)
• Host 1 adds nuance: “We do also have to talk about…radicalization happening within our borders…some Americans are less American than some of these immigrants.” ([42:55], Host 1)
• Host 2 underscores: “The thing that unites humans is a value set…if we can agree that, that becomes a thing…then that becomes a thing.” ([44:05], Host 2)

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8. Lawfare, Biden’s Auto Pen, and Weaponizing Process

[47:31–52:07]

• Trump nullifies all “auto pen” signed Biden orders, memos, pardons.
• Host: “The gangrene is lawfare…this will make elections truly existential…that is just stupid. And people are locked in this mental battle where they are making elections existential, which will make people want to do everything they can to rig an election. So it’s like, oh my God, so dumb.” ([48:21–52:07], Host 2)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “He creates just enough uncertainty in the minds of the people that he’s negotiating with…because he has the US Economy behind him, because he has the US Military behind him, you have to take that seriously.”
  —Host 2, [07:21]

• “Musk tracked down the IP addresses of the Dominion office in Serbia and rendered their computer useless before the election.”
  —Host 1 (reading social media commentary), [09:22]

• “People want to work for this guy. There is something utterly fascinating about someone who is, from a work ethic standpoint, is just maniacal…I would rather burn out under Musk than be bored.”
  —Host 2, [12:20]

• “All of these politicians are absolute masters at the game of propaganda and what they understand is…if I can give you a frame of reference, I can control what you look at and what you see.”
  —Host 2, [17:37]

• “That, I will tell you, is a bluff because he’s stalled out in Ukraine.”
  —Host 2, [26:27] (on Putin’s threat toward Europe)

• “Show me the incentive and I’ll show you the outcome.”
  —Host 2 quoting Charlie Munger, [41:48]

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• [01:00] – Geopolitical update; US-Venezuela escalation
• [08:46] – Voting machines, Venezuela, and Musk’s alleged cyber actions
• [14:18] – Congressional debate over US narco boat strikes
• [16:47] – Maduro’s rhetoric and the politics of frame-of-reference
• [24:08] – Putin’s European warnings and context on modern war
• [33:39] – Ukrainian leadership crisis (Zelensky)
• [38:46] – Trump’s new immigration restrictions and value debate
• [47:31] – Lawfare, Biden’s auto-pen, and existential threat to elections

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Conclusion:
This episode is a wide-ranging, fast-paced breakdown of geopolitics in late 2025, filtered through Tom Bilyeu's analytical and sometimes philosophical lens. The discussion ranges from military strategy and election interference to propaganda, values, and the risks in the modern world order, always returning to how individuals and nations construct and contest narratives in pursuit of power. The conversation is punctuated with skepticism, candid takes, and calls for principle—encouraging listeners to cut past the headlines and understand the fundamental incentives at play.

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For listeners seeking clarity in a world of rapidly changing crises and information wars, this episode delivers skepticism, context, and actionable frameworks for thinking critically about major world events.

Transcript

[Host 1]

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[Host 2]

Tensions between the US And Venezuela continue to boil. Putin says the European Union is trying to sabotage peace talks in the Russia, Ukraine conflict as corruption allegations swirl. Rumors are flying that Zelensky may be forced out of office in handcuffs. And Trump has declared all Biden auto pen actions null and void. Trump has also put an immigration pause on a bunch of countries after the recent Capitol shooting.

[Host 1]

We had talks over the break about bombers flying around the Caribbean. Trump shut down all the airspace. Somebody had an airspace map up. I'm gonna pull it up. Where literally you see all the planes flying and avoiding Venezuela. Like things are pretty much tensioned. I won't say we're kind of at the. Was it the Cuban Missile crisis where everybody was kind of in the boat staring at each other? I don't think we're that close. But at the same time, we are pretty much on the border. We reopen bases in Puerto Rico. It seems like tensions are now rising in the Caribbean.

[Host 2]

Yes, for sure. When you draw the comparison to what happened with Cuba during Kennedy, that's where this suddenly looks a lot more chill. That was about the US And Russia. So Russia rolls up, drops nuclear weapons into Cuba, which is literally a swim off the coast of Florida. So you can certainly understand how that becomes, I mean, quite literally the gravest threat the world has ever faced in terms of nuclear annihilation. Tensions running high. This is how you get the red phone between the US and the Kremlin so that they always had a line so that it was like, hey, let's not let this go awry, because we're talking through aids. Like, I Want to make sure that you and I can get on the phone and say, like, for, for real, what's happening? What do you care about? Where do we stand? So absolutely fascinating moment in history. I don't think that's what's playing out here. I don't get any of those alarm bells going off. China has backed off, Iran is backed off. Russia's backed off. Everybody's leaving Maduro isolated on this. Now what Trump's real game is, I don't know, like, I really thought, oh, this is clean, this is about China. Do I think that China is a big part of this 100%? Do I think that oil is a part of this 100%? But do I also go when Trump sends out the, the truth social that he did about the Dominion voting machines, and I was like, okay, wait, hold on. What? Like, this was a part of the puzzle that I did not see coming. And this is where, like, listen, being on camera and talking about this stuff, you always know there's something about this that I don't know. I'm very much on the outside looking in, especially me. Like, a lot of these guys are, you know, they're connected to Washington D.C. i'm very much not. So for me, it's trying to parse what makes sense from a geopolitical standpoint. If you look at all the pieces on the board, like trying to put yourself in a position of, okay, I know what people are trying to do in terms of the power they want to gain or access resources or whatever, and so what do I think all this plays out as? But something like that came out of left field for me and some of the accusations are wild now, I this is early days, we'll see what comes out. But there are people out there saying that they've been doing Dominion machine manipulation since the 2008 election of Obama and that this is like a much broader, longer lasting problem that we know again, will that all end up being bullshit? And I don't even know how in use the Dominion machines were back then. So anyway, that'll play out in the fullness of time. But it's interesting because Trump has retweeted it, obviously, I give it, it's taking up some of his mind share that Maduro has been involved in trying to manipulate US Politics, presumably for a very long time. Trump obviously has beef with the 2020 election. And so it felt like a big finger pointing to this guy, basically, if you're going to mess with me. And I think that is the right way to read Trump, this is not an America thing. In this particular instance, if you're going to mess with me, I'm 100% going to put the full might of the US military behind me, and I'm not afraid to flex. It's interesting. So, okay, period. That's that now, new idea. One of the things about Trump that I find so interesting is that he really is a strong man. He is not somebody who is posturing as, like, a guy that bluffs. This is part of what makes him erratic, part of what makes him dangerous, part of what makes him a problem. It's also part of how you get everybody else in the world to calm down. When you have somebody that is willing to create chaos, is willing to throw 100 tariff here, 200 tariff there, send all of our most devastating military equipment into the Caribbean, and if it ends up being over a voting machine, I mean, it will just all be wild. This is somebody who has just enough. He creates just enough uncertainty in the minds of the people that he's negotiating with. And because he has the US Economy behind him, because he has the US Military behind him, you have to take that seriously. And in interviewing Laffer from the Laffer Curve fame. Thank you, by the way, for getting that guest. I loved that interview.

[Host 1]

He was the best. Yeah, he was.

[Host 2]

It was a lot of fun, and I. I was a little surprised how much he and I were arguing, but it was fun. All in good faith. Wonderful, wonderful exchange. But anyway, while I was researching him, his sense of, like, part of Trump's strategy is the chaos. And in the chaos, he creates openings and then he exploits those openings. I don't necessarily need people to believe that Trump is brilliant enough to create chaos in a known way, but that he is comfortable with chaos and then looking for, okay, what openings does this create? For me, uh, it is interesting. I'm not saying that I love it. I'm not saying I'm clapping for it. I am saying I'm watching with absolute, utter fascination as somebody who recognizes the way that he moves is like a CEO, not like a president. Uh, and so I recognize how when you're interfacing with certainly competitive companies and if you're able to create instability, if they're. Especially if they're trying to copy you, if they're trying to be counterpunchers to you, and you make it a impossible them for them to figure out where you're going next, that's what it feels like he's doing. So I'll be very interested to see how this stuff plays out. I mean, some of it is nail biting because obviously I don't want to see troops deployed, I don't want to see us firing shots. But at the same time, we are in. It's not a power vacuum, but we're in a period where the world can sense our weakness and that emboldens people to go on the attack or whatever. I think Putin invading Ukraine is a perfect example of this. Under Biden, we were at our regional weakest. I don't know that it's the weakest we've ever been, but it was certainly a regional peak in weakness. And you saw how different things happened, whether it was what happened in Israel, what happened in the Ukraine. I actually don't think those things would have happened with Trump because he is aggressive, he is unpredictable. He does have so much might behind him and he's willing to use it.

[Host 1]

All right, I want to jump into the voting machines part of Venezuela because to your point, everybody knows about the oil, everybody has speculation about China, everybody has speculation about the narco boats. We'll get to those things. But this one is, I think is a new, a new stream that I haven't necessarily pulled yet. So this is Trump retweeting on truth social, Johnny St. Pete. And this is the tweet Bombshell video. Elon Musk might have saved the 2024 election from being stolen. Benny Johnson tells the story of how Musk knew that they would, that they would win the election. And appears it's because they identified the overseas systems and machines that were going to perpetrate what we saw in 2020. Now we know why Trump is raging at Venezuela. Apparently we weren't crazy. Musk tracked down the IP addresses of the Dominion office in Serbia and rendered their computer useless before the election. The Years prior in 2020, the chairman of Smartmatic's holding company, SGO was Mark Malik Brown. He resigned in 2020. Guess where his next job was? January 2021. The president of the Open Society Foundation. Yes, Soros Foundation. George Soros being the number one donor to the Democrats and the dnc. His right hand man was the head of an electronic voting company called smartmatic. And these Dominion machines may have been running smartmatic software. According to Emerald Robinson, General Flynn flew out to meet with the Venezuela whistleblowers. Anyone else think it's odd that the Democrats are worried so relentlessly about Venezuela? Were they and the globalists running operations out of there? So again, early speculation. But Trump retweeted on his true social. So that's why it's kind of gaining steam on the interwebs.

[Host 2]

Yeah, I mean, this is it. So the Elon involvement obviously is utterly fascinating. If there was essentially cyber warfare going on where he's identified the computers that have supposedly been running this manipulation scheme, was actually able to get in there and shut them down, that is. It's all a little horrifying. It's horrifying on a lot of levels. Horrifying that it was being done, obviously. Horrifying that you have to do this kind of like technological scan of the battlefield and you begin to realize, oh, there are cyber wars that are being fought all day, every day. And then just insane that Elon Musk again finds himself at the center of this kind of thing. For me, that is somebody who is able to look at the world and see what really matters right now and to build one of the most profound companies in that space. And then the power of human intelligence, the. The thing that always drives me crazy when people go on an anti Musk tirade about what does he actually do? Like, he's just taking credit for other people's stuff. Just like, do you know how hard it is to attract human capital, like, to convince people to come work for you? There has never been in human history somebody in the business world that has been able to attract the level of human talent that he's been able to attract across industries. Like, people want to work for this guy. There is something utterly fascinating about someone who is, from a work ethic standpoint, is just maniacal. I mean, completely unhinged, working around the clock, sleeping on his desk. This is at times the richest man in the world sleeping on the floor of a production facility, sleeping on his desk at work, like routinely having 11pm meetings, 1am meetings.

[Host 1]

Yeah.

[Host 2]

So there was a great story from somebody that used to work for him, quit, totally burned out, goes and works somewhere else for whatever two months, three months, and then comes back, back. And people were like, what are you doing coming back? Like, you were so burned out, you hated it here. And he goes, I would rather burn out under Musk than be bored.

[Host 1]

Wow.

[Host 2]

And I'm just like in. In all of the sort of anti male aggression bias that we just went through over the last 10 or 15 years, what got lost is there is a certain type of guy they. They want to work, man. Like they want a load upon their back to try to break them, and they just refuse to be broken by it. And they. And more and more so that they can prove to themselves and to others that they can really do something. He aggregates those people and he aggregates people with that mentality that are also hyper intelligent. And seeing him take that sort of magnifying glass of intelligence and be like, oh, we need to point this to destroying servers in Serbia. Say less fam. And then he just goes and does it. Now look, this is early. We don't know if this is actually what happened. But the fact again that Trump retweeted it tells me that there's enough validity here to be interesting. Yeah, taking a short break. But there's more impact theory after. Stay tuned. Hey, it's your ceiling vent. So I'm dripping. Could be the rain, could be the upstairs bathroom. Yikes. You could hire the guy your neighbor recommended, but I'm pretty sure that's just his cousin. Do we know if he's licensed or does he just own a ladder? Listen to your home. Go with thumbtack. Upload a photo or voice note and we'll diagnose your project and match you with the right pro for the job. Thumbtack, we know homes hire the right pro today. Thanks for staying tuned. Now let's get back to it.

[Host 1]

Okay, so now let's take a step back. Voting machines aside, let's just kind of see where we're at right now. So there's been some speculation in the Senate right now of trying to actually get a powers resolution in Congress to vote because they think that the boat narco strikes have been unconstitutional because you have to go through Congress to go to war. There have been 21 strikes so far that have killed at least 83 people in these drug boats going back and forth from Venezuela. As it states. Pete Hegseth has come under scrutiny lately because of the double strike that has happened recently. So there was a video that allegedly one of the narco boats was striked, they blew up the boat, but then there were some survivors in the water and they sent another bomb to just kind of wipe it out completely. Yeah, this is him talking about that during the cabinet meeting yesterday.

[Guest Expert]

That again? Or do you end the problem directly by taking a lethal kinetic approach? And that's the way President Trump has authorized the War Department to look at these cartels. And I wish everybody could be in the room watching. Our professionals, our professionals like Mitch Bradley, Admiral Mitch Bradley and others at JSOC and SOCOM and other commanders. The deliberative process, the detail, the rigorous, the intel, the legal, the evidence based way that we're able to, with sources and methods that we can't reveal here that make sure that Every one of those drug boats is tied to a designated terrorist organization. We know who's on it, what they're doing, what they're carrying. All these white bales are not Christmas gifts from Santa. This is drugs running on four motor fast boats or submarines that we've also struck. No one's fishing on a submarine. And I have empowered them to make that call. Now, the first couple of strikes, as you would, as any leader would want, you want to own that responsibility. So I said, I'm going to be the one to make the call. Call after getting all the information and make sure it's the right strike. That was September 2nd. There's a lot of intelligence that goes into that, building that case and understanding that a lot of people providing information. I watched that first strike live, as you can imagine, at the Department of War. We got a lot of things to do. So I didn't stick around for the hour and two hours, whatever, where all the sensitive site exploitation digitally occurs. So I moved on to my next meeting. A couple of hours later, I learned that that confused commander had made the. Which he had the complete authority to do. And by the way, Admiral Bradley made the correct decision to ultimately sink the boat and eliminate the threat.

[Host 1]

So that's the one where he had the. He had the authority to do that. And then last one, then I'll take it up to you is Maduro has responded saying, I say clearly to the world, the United States is planning to plunder Venezuelan oil. They want to seize the largest oil reserve in the world as if Venezuela were a land without people. That will not happen, not while I'm leading this nation. So there's all these kind of different narratives that are happening kind of surrounding Venezuela. I know when it comes to immigration, sometimes you got to be fast and, you know, make. You got to be fast and swift and kind of come back later and apologize for those. You got to cut quick and then maybe come back and rehire people when it comes to international relationships. Do you think we're approaching this Venezuela situation with all that swirling kind of up in the ethereum?

[Host 2]

Okay, well, so you've put two things on the table. One, you've got the boat strikes.

[Host 1]

Yeah.

[Host 2]

And then two, you've got Maduro. Now I have a mental map of Maduro as anarco kingpin, essentially. So because of that mental map, I look at this kind of statement and laugh. It's like he's just trying to save face, not just say face. All of these politicians are absolute masters at the game of propaganda and what they understand is, if I can give you a frame of reference, I can control what you look at and what you see. And, God, one of the great missions of my life. I'm not even sure how to say this out loud, but I have realized how my own life, the quality of it, has changed entirely by manipulating my own frame of reference. So my own ability to change the lens through which I view the world changes everything about the internal quality of my life. When I see other people struggle, my whole thing is trying to get them to change the internal frame of reference they have built for themselves. Because simply changing the lens through which you view the world, nothing changed in the outside world, but the lens through which you view the world changes, and everything about it changes. Maduro is trying to do that, but I would say it's a negative effect. So he's trying to reach inside of people's minds. Putin is doing the same thing. Trump is doing the same thing. Politicians want to control your frame of reference. And so from the near infinite number of options that there are in terms of how to parse the world, they try to instantly narrow you down to one choice in their ideal world, or certainly a small handful of choices. And once they can trap you inside of a frame of reference, they've got you. So he's trying to get everybody to see him. Oh, I'm a leader who's just standing up for my people. Like, this is wild. And so when I see that, I'm like, oh, my God, I know that that's going to sway a distressingly large number of people who will see that line and be like, yeah, of course. Well, any good leader, that's exactly what they would say. Now, if in reality, this ends up being a narco kingpin who has plundered his own nation, is controlling his people so that he can sell drugs around the world. Because drugs are an extraordinary cash business. I mean, extraordinary man. You can make so much money. Like, when you hear how many billions of dollars Pablo Picasso was burying, like, just, like, out in his backyard, in all these different houses, just, it. It's insanity. So it. It is an extraordinary business that generates a ton of literal cash so that you can be outside of most of the swift systems and all that. Like, you've just got literal cash. And so when I start putting that guy in that box, and I'm like, whoa, like, if this is manipulating American elections, if this is him holding an entire nation hostage, if this is him ponying up against our biggest enemies in the world with the promise of Oil. And for people that don't know, Venezuela has, like, really dirty oil. And so it is believed that they have the largest oil reserves in the world. But because it's so dirty, until recently, there was only one place that could refine that oil, and that was in Texas. Then China comes in and builds a refinery that can match what Texas is doing. So you've got the two biggest nations in the world fighting in the American hemisphere over the largest deposit of oil, but it needs, like, this special filtering, and both the US And China offer the only ability to do that. And potentially, you have this very corrupt guy at the center of this all asking you to believe that he's just a good guy fighting for his people. And so all of that is, like, this is the political game, is a game of controlling what people see. And that part of it really bothers me. Like, it really bothers me because it works, because you get internal fighting, because we're in a populist moment where it just gives people another angle through which to tribe up and fight against each other. So that's what I look at when I see Maduro. Now, the boat strike is this one is going to ask America a values question in terms of what we're willing to put up with, to what get our way. And right now, Trump is saying, nope, you. I'm going to bully these guys around. They are going to, in no uncertain terms, understand that I will stop with violence. Anybody trying to send drugs into this country. Now, do I think drugs is both real and a cover story? Yes. So I think people really are sending drugs. I think it really does bother a lot of the people that vote for Donald Trump. Trump is going to pay attention to anything that enough of his voters care about, and so he's going to take that seriously. But I also think it's the thing that he can talk about to get people on his side, when in reality, it's far more complicated. And it has to do with voting machines and it has to do with oil, and it has to do with China. So that one, I think, is going to make people a lot more squeamish. And so this double strike, to me, is utterly fascinating. And this is where I think that people are going to really struggle with the way that my mind works. And because I'm like, wait, you were perfectly fine if they had all been killed with the first strike, or maybe you weren't fine with it, but you don't feel like you have the thing to, like, get people mad. But because one of the people didn't quite die, and so they hit him with another one. You've got beef with that. Like, to me, either you don't want to see these people drone struck, or they should be able to drone strike them 57 times and it doesn't make any difference. I cannot mentally map. Like, I look at somebody that has a problem with the second one and I'm like, wait, what? So that I don't understand now, if somebody's just like, we shouldn't be drone striking them. Yep, cool. That makes all the sense in the world. I totally understand how a reasonable person comes to that conclusion. I do not understand. Even if it is international law, I do not understand how somebody comes to the conclusion that you drone stroke them once, you missed one of the guys, so you hit that guy again, and people are like, wait, what? Like, this is so immoral. What? So that one I literally can't track. So all of the. The uproar over that is confusing to me.

[Host 1]

I definitely want to queue up this clip now from President Putin, who says Europe is the reason they're sabotaging the peace deal. HE SPEAKS obviously in RUSSIAN so I'm going to give you guys my. My patented translations. This was in Moscow yesterday. They are on the side of war, speaking about Europe. Even when they try to supposedly introduce some changes to Trump's proposal, we see clearly what they are doing. All these changes are aimed at one thing, to completely block the entire peace process by putting forward demands. They are absolutely unacceptable for Russia, they understand this. By doing so, they then intend to blame Russia for the collapse of this peace process. This. That is their goal. We see this clearly. We're not going to have a war with Europe, I've said, but if Europe suddenly wants to wage a war with us and starts it, we are ready right away. There can be no doubt about that. With Ukraine, we are acting in a surgical, very precise manner. This is not a war in the direct modern sense of the word.

[Host 2]

Isn't it?

[Host 1]

No. If Europe suddenly decides to wage a war with us and starts it, a situation may quickly arise in which there will be no one left for us to negotiate with. That's spicy talk. I don't know.

[Host 2]

I feel like that's very spicy talk.

[Host 1]

That's not getting enough attention. But it's direct. I watch Professor Jing's YouTube page, Productive History. Like this Chinese dude in Canada, he teaches a class and he kind of talks about history and how the changes throughout the empires. Something he said was, war nowadays is soft because war back in the day to your point was way more barbaric. We're lining up. We're. We're killing everybody. Women and children are enslaved. We're taking captives, war prisoners, things like that. With drones and this precision strikes now, it's like, okay, I'm attacking your electrical facility. So that way it messes up your transportation. Like, they're doing these tactical things and it's less of the collateral damage. So I think to his point of we're being more precise, Russia's not just kind of going through the front lines, marching through like Napoleon or Hitler and those types of things. It's a bit more nuanced with where they're striking at the pace in which they're striking.

[Host 2]

Yeah, it's very true. I mean, if you go back far enough, you start getting into some of the wars of Genghis Khan. It's unreal, man. Knock, knock. Hey, guys, we're here at the city walls. Come out or we slaughter everyone. And I do mean everyone. One. No, you cool. Slaughter dead. And they would kill, like, 60,000 people. Dude, it's so wild. There was one battle, it was a Roman battle, I forgot, against Hannibal maybe. And Hannibal was just like, cool. 60,000 dead in an afternoon. Dude, with swords, you're hacking 60,000 people to death in an afternoon. So I just. I've often thought about that. Do you know how tired your arms? I gotta kill another one of the hell dud there. There have been times where I'll be sorting my TCG cards and my, like, shoulder will start to burn, and I'm like, wait, I have to hack. What's my portion of 60,000 people? Like, Jesus. So, yeah, so there's no doubt that in some ways this is better than that. However, we are losing thousands of people every week, week after week after week after week. So the sum total, it may not happen in such a short period of time, but we just have a lot more people on planet Earth to kill at this point. And so it's still horrific. Okay, the part here, to your point that everybody should be paying attention to and they're not, is we are now in a period where you've got war. I don't care what he says. War between Russia and Ukraine. We've got yet another round of wild instability between Israel and Palestine. You've got the US deploying basically everything they have into the Caribbean in a showdown with Venezuela. You've got China doing military exercises off the coast of, technically, Taiwan. But Japan knows what's up. And so Japan and China are now, like, really Staring at each other side eyeing each other. If China invades Taiwan, the US And China now will have a decision to make. And now Putin is like, oh, Europe, want a piece? Let's go. Now that, I will tell you, is a bluff because he's stalled out in Ukraine. So the reason he's like, oh, we're being surgical is like he's trying to signal. Don't think that we can't peel off some of this and come after you guys wholesale. No problem. We're being surgical, very limited here. So there, there is a level of instability. And the question people need to ask is, why now? And what I'm putting forward is, why now? Because America became weak and the rest of the world was like, cool, this is our shot. And then I will refer everybody back to what I just said 10 minutes ago, that countries will expand until they meet sufficient force. And so that's precisely what you're seeing in Russia, Europe, NATO was trying to expand into Russia, which is a big part of what kicked this off in the first place. China is certainly trying to do it through a hearts and minds strategy. But China has been trying to go the entire globe over and get everybody on board with what they're doing. Get everybody on board probably with a gold backed yuan. So it's like everybody's making moves to be in the best position because it has such real consequences. This is the part that I think people lose sight of. Why the Ukraine? Why the Ukraine? Why does the Ukraine find itself in this battle all the time? And the answer is it is very fertile land. And so when you read some of the things that Hitler was saying, he was like, oh, bro, the Ukraine is going to be our American west and we're going to roll into Russia precisely so that Germans can expand and they can. Like the Americans have been just pushing farther and farther west into all this virgin territory and claiming it and all of its resources for themselves and just having the sense of freedom and space, that's what we're going to give to the German people. So why Putin? The same reason. So it's like you have this extremely fertile land that also lets Russians expand. And so when you can deliver prosperity to your people, you will be welcomed as a hero. Now if you create that prosperity through international deals like Trump is trying to do, okay, that's one way or the age old, just take over their territory. And so now you can. One option, one, kill a bunch of them and just take their stuff. And so one of the most horrifying things in World War II was like, oh, we're in Paris. You're Jewish. Word, sorry. Taking all of your shit, like legally. So you're a Jew that owns a company. Not anymore. So we'll take that company. Thank you very much. Great series about Dior. And so Dior's the design house is born out of World War II. His sister ends up getting put in a concentration camp. So he's like in the thick of it, just in Paris as the Nazis are coming, makes the decision that he's not going to help the Nazis, which obviously is bad for business. And so just absolutely fascinating story. And Coco Chanel does and gets very embedded with the Nazis. And then how at first that's very good for her and then it all circles back around on her. But you just see how companies and houses and property were taken away. And it's like, that's a lot of wealth if you can confiscate it. So that's playbook number one. Playbook number two is you come in and hey, like, we're just glad to welcome you into the Russian Federation. Welcome. We love you guys all, but you are going to do things our way now. We are going to be having you ship a lot of that wheat or whatever into mainland Russia. So we're, we're witnessing a rebirth of the world's oldest story. Knock, knock. Give me all your shit.

[Host 1]

Yeah. If so facto on that.

[Host 2]

We're hitting pause for a moment, but there's plenty more ahead, so don't go anywhere.

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[Host 2]

Thanks for sticking around. Let's get right back into the action.

[Host 1]

This is also on the news that Ukrainian mp, which is like the deputy district of Ukraine, Artem Dmitryuk, has just dropped a political bombshell on his Telegram channel. He's saying that Zelensky has been ordered to leave the presidency within days. He says Zelensky may refuse to comply. He's expected to stall for time and invent excuses. If he resistes, he may be forced out in your handcuffs. Now, this was kind of almost, I guess the equivalent of like a, like the impeachment vote that we have kind of on the US where the body has said we might need new ownership, we might need new leadership, but it's not necessarily he needs to get Rode out of the White House, that it's not anything lasting. So there's still conflicting reports on whether Zelensky is actually going to do this or not. We haven't actually got a confirmed source for this just yet. Is this the right time, though, to have turnover in the middle of a war with peace talks finally seeming like they're coming close to ending and then Putin kind of going on the offensive? Is this the time now to kind of change regimes? How do you feel about the time?

[Host 2]

It's a reroll and there's always high risk in that because if you got somebody better that was a military genius that is has more respect of the men that are fighting for him, yeah, you'd be in a much better position. But if it just creates instability, a power vacuum, and somebody comes in that doesn't know what's going on, has to be brought up to speed. May may not have learned all of the lessons that he's already learned through being through all this, doesn't have the diplomatic ties, et cetera, et cetera. It could be an absolute catastrophe. And so this is why typically countries will have some sort of pause of like, hey, let's, let's not do that reroll. This person was elected for a reason. They happen to be the one that is in the middle of this, let this play out, and then when this is all said and done, we can deal with it. And that probably is the right move, that you're just better off, whatever weaknesses they have, you're better off holding steady. But politics is a vicious game and if there are people that want you out, they're going to do whatever they need to do to get you out. We see that playing out in US Politics as readily as we see it playing out anywhere else. So, yeah, I mean, this is one of the reasons why I'm like, I don't understand why people want to go into politics. Everyone is your enemy there. There is only like short term alliances when you both want the same thing, but the second you don't both want the same thing, dude, people will turn on you instantaneously. And that, like, that is not a good feeling. I don't like that. I would hate that.

[Host 1]

Yeah, I feel like that is a signal to Putin, like, as soon as you have elections, the elections are over. At 7:00 o', clock, I'm sending a bomb. At 7:02, like I feel like, matter of fact, I'm sending a bomb at 555. So that way it messes up the election process and now everybody's confused and they don't know. Like, I feel like that just invites

[Host 2]

chaos and more of course, like, this is that one. This is why if they can kill the leader, they most certainly will. This is why when Israel is going after people, they're not targeting low level grunts, they're targeting like, oh, this is the head of Hamas, this is the head of Hezbollah. It's like, then, oh, we've at least got a shot that you get a bad role. That that leader was great, man of history kind of guy. And now that he's gone, like, you're just you in a worse off position. And this is why one of the stories that they tell so often is I forget the guy's name that was one of the major architects behind October 7. They had treated him, I think for cancer in. He was in prison in Israel and they saved his life and then ultimately sent him back. And then he ended up like being one of the brains behind the operation. And so they're like, huh, like, was that the right play? It was certainly the right thing to do from a humanitarian standpoint in that moment. But if there really are some people that are just better at doing this thing, better at rallying people behind them, better at strategy, planning, etc, then ah, going back to my initial thing that killing people is very efficient, should we have done that? It's one of those hindsights, 2020, so you're caught where it's like, yeah, I want to be a good person, I want to do the right thing. But there are potential consequences to this because there's a story. I'm pretty sure this is a real story and it's not apocryphal that Hitler came stumbling upon a soldier on the allied side. I think he was American, maybe British. Anyway, they come face to face and Hitler's basically like, I've already been wounded. Like, come on, let's just chill. And so the guy does, doesn't shoot him and lets him walk away. And it's like, was it the right thing in the moment? Feels right. But he ends up being Hitler. So it's like, ah, that's tough.

[Host 1]

Yeah. And I think that's a little bit ironic because now you have all these. If I was, would you take a time travel machine to go kill, murder baby Hitler? Yeah, that person didn't even murder growing up Hitler.

[Host 2]

So yeah, yeah, there's some Shocking number of soldiers. And I mean shocking. It's something like 70% of soldiers, when faced with the enemy, won't pull the trigger. That's crazy to me, but supposedly true.

[Host 1]

Oh, interesting. All right, let's jump back over to Trump in America now that we did international. These are the people that aren't coming into the country anymore. Trump is planning a pause on asylum and immigration, full stop from these certain countries. After the attack on the Capitol, I think a long time.

[Host 2]

Can you give any.

[Host 1]

We don't want those people. We have enough problems. We don't want those people. People.

[Host 2]

Is there a list of.

[Host 1]

Well, I guess we gave you 19. Right.

[Guest Expert]

And it's probably more than that there.

[Host 1]

And then this is the list of the 19 countries. We have Cuba, Haiti, Sierra Leone, Venezuela, Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea. Shout out to G for that. Togo, Chad, Libya, Iran, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Laos, Eritrea, Yemen, Somalia, Sudan, Burundi and Burma. I feel like this is the same thing he did in 2016, but it was the Muslim ban then. Now it's a immigration pause here. So I feel like this is not something mind blowing. We've seen this playbook before, but to

[Host 2]

me, this is extremely logical that you have to be extraordinarily careful with your immigration policy. Full stop, period, end of story through all time. This is exactly how you weaken your own nation from within, is you bring people that do not assimilate. We for sure want to collect the best and brightest people from around the world, but you want them to be the best and the brightest. You don't want them to be just come one, come all. The come one, come all strategy can work if you're America in like, obviously this is before we were a country, but like in the 1600s where it was like, ah, you're probably going to die, but if you make it, we know that you are good. That works. Or in the early days when the government was like 3% of GDP, when we didn't have entitlements, certainly not anything like what we have now. And so it was like, well, you're not going to be sucking on the teat because there's no tea to suck on. So you're going to figure out a way to contribute or you're most likely just going to go back to your country and we don't do that anymore. Now it's like we've got Gigantor teat for people to suckle upon. And we seem to call to people like, with breast already hanging out, like, you know, please, we welcome you. So, yeah, it's like the Statue of Liberty has changed to that dress down, breast out, like light in the sky. And that attracts a very different kind of person. And when, when somebody wants a shot, when they're like, I can make it anywhere, I know I can do this, I just, like, put me in, coach. Let me give this a try. And there's no one there to catch you. If you fall, then it's like, cool. The people that end up making it are really going to be the best and the brightest. But once it's a welfare state and you invite the world, then you. You are incentivizing people to not work.

[Host 1]

Yeah.

[Host 2]

And that ends up being a drain in the economy. And so there's the great line from Charlie Munger who said, show me the incentive and I'll show you the outcome. So if the incentive is that, come here and you get free money and a stable country, and currently you're in an unstable country not getting anything free, like, why wouldn't you. So, in fact, it's. It would make you economically irrational to stay in your own country if your country is struggling, if you're not living a good life there, if the streets are dangerous, it is. It is irrational of you not to come into the stable country with a welfare state that is inviting you in. And unfortunately, Europe is learning the lesson way too slowly. Thankfully, we are learning the lesson much faster by watching Europe partly. And then we just have a slightly different mentality, reality in America. So, yeah, we're putting a pause now. Again, you and I have talked about this ad nauseam. People read this as a statement of racism. That is the wrong way to look at this, but it is very much a question of values. So we'll. It's a smart move.

[Host 1]

Yeah. I'm glad you brought up the values thing, because I think there's something that's missing in all this, is that the capital murder was a tragedy. It was terrible. The person responsible for it is definitely 100% is making a stain on this policy. So if this is not a policy coming out of Trump's ass, he has a reason to kind of pull this out. So I understand where it's coming from. That person was an Afghan refugee. That person coming through the Afghan migrant program was in America since 2021. There was even on Fox News coverage that said that he was then radicalized while within the country. So while I completely understand that opening up the borders to some people from these other countries, we're importing people that we don't necessarily have the right values, but we do also have to talk about that there is radicalization happening within our borders. There are some people that, I would even argue some Americans that are less American than some of these immigrants that have came over and assimilated and things like that. So it's like, while, yes, I can understand closing the borders can help solve that problem, I do think that there's still the bigger problem that may have directly led to this attack that is going unaddressed 100%. Yeah.

[Host 2]

So I would be very sad if the only reason that we have done this is because of that shooting. The reason to do this is it is simply a fact that the way that societies work is humans are able to cooperate in large, flexible groups based on some superseding thing that we believe in. So that could be country. So if everybody's, like, deeply patriotic for the country, that becomes the thing that unites us. It could be a clan, it could be a religion, it could be a family, whatever, but that's how we end up cooperating in these large, flexible groups. Religion, I think, was the greatest invention in terms of getting humans to cooperate in large, flexible groups without needing to know the other person. And once you realize, oh, oh, I get it, it's just you're making that tent bigger and bigger. And so now it's not. It doesn't even need to be about the country that you're in. It can supersede that and become really gigantic. And so now it's like, okay, if we can agree that that's a powerful thing that unites people, what we have just agreed upon is values is the thing that holds people together more than anything, more than blood, more than nation states. It is, ah, I have a way to understand that you and I have a shared value. This is one of the reasons that the symbolism is so powerful, is I can see you can wear a cross around your neck and instantly you're Christian, I'm Christian. It's like, now we've got a bond. So that kind of thing is really important for us to understand in this moment. And I know that it's like one of the memes in our community, like, people will come in. And I see it as Tom said, values yet. Or, you know, some of the other ideas that I loop on. But the reason that I talk about these things endlessly is they govern our behavior. And so if. If you fail to understand that the thing that unites humans is a value set that can be expressed quickly, what is that? I'm Christian. You're Christian, I'm Muslim. You're Muslim. Cool. Instant boom. Like, all of this knowledge about who you are, what you believe comes pouring forward whether you're in group or out group. And so if understanding that is the thing that should prompt this now, what countries do you put on it? This is where we are going to culturally have a really hard time. We have to decide, are some groups more and or less likely to assimilate to American values? If no, everybody is going to be equally the same. Okay, then it's we're going to have a hard time because who do you say yes to? Who do you say no to? You need some sort of criteria. This is one of the reasons that when I'm teaching entrepreneurs the fastest thing I tell them is you have to have a North Star in your company. You have to have a culture in your company because it tells you the North Star of what you're trying to achieve, tells you how to prioritize things, what to say no to. And then your culture says who you're going to hire and who you're going to say no to. So you have to understand, like, what's a yes and what's a no. And if we can agree that there are certain cultures that are less likely to adopt American values, then that becomes a thing.

[Guest Expert]

Cool.

[Host 2]

This is a values question. These are countries that are less likely to have people that assimilate. And that's how we say no. But because that's largely right now framed as a Muslim question, it gets sticky because it feels racist. And so that's where it's going to get wild.

[Host 1]

President Biden was swinging his auto pen around, signing everything. And breaking news now. Trump just officially terminated every document, pardon, executive order, proclamation or memorandum signed by the auto pen under Joe Biden. This is a quote, any and all documents, proclamations, executive orders, memorandums or contracts signed by order of the new infamous and unauthorized auto pin within the administration of Joseph R. Biden Jr are hereby null, void and of no further force or effect. Anyone receiving partings, commutations or any other legal documents so signed, Please advise that said document has been fully and completely terminated. Ends of no legal effect. Thank you for your attention to this matter. You know how mad I would be if I did. If I got out of jail and Trump was like, psych. And then I had to go back, bro, for sure. And you just let Onarco dude get off and you about to auto pay me, I would be so pissed. I'm running at that point.

[Host 2]

So, yeah, God, here, here's my thing with this as soon as I read this, I thought of gangrene. When somebody has gangrene, you have to amputate, and so you might lose your arm, your leg, whatever, but you can't let the gangrene spread. Now, the gangrene in this scenario is not the auto pen. It is not that people in government have done something bad. They most certainly have. And there will be plenty of crimes to find if you want to go after it. The gangrene is lawfare. And I am not surprised in the slightest that because he was gone after, he is now going after other people. Hurt people, hurt people. But, boy, do I wish that we had somebody in office that understood, that could stand and give the following speech. There's no one in American history who has had the opposition go after him legally harder than me. And I believe that all of this was unjustified. I believe you guys created novel rulings specifically to go after me. You had people like Letitia James that ran to get elected by saying, I'm going after Donald Trump, not I know what he did, but that I will go find a thing that he did to go after him. Nobody has been persecuted like I've been persecuted. And I'm telling you right now that it stops here. And we have to usher in an era of honor, integrity, virtue, and let's bring some of these things back. He clearly is not capable of that. But, Jesus, do I want that to be the message? Because the gangrene is lawfare. The thing that needs to be amputated is lawfare. Now, if you can start anew and say, okay, listen, that. That pass shit is the pass shit. And I would talk endlessly about the fact that the people actually running the government during Biden's time refer to themselves as the Politburo, which is specifically a communist group that runs the government. So I'm like, dude, that one to me. We all know that I have my. I don't think it's weird, but I'm sure many people map it as a weird aversion to communism, socialism. So by all means, discount the veracity that I feel it. But, like, that's crazy to me. And I still wouldn't be going after them legally. Now you draw a line in the sand and you say, don't keep around, because if you do something now, we're going to come after you because we can't, like, let this stuff stand. And so now it's, like, cool. Moving forward, Everybody understands that. Abide by the rules, abide by the law. This is a new era, we're not playing that game anymore. But what ends up happening, the thing that people ought to be absolutely terrified by is this will make elections truly existential. Because now Trump is in a position where if a Republican does not win the presidency, they're going to go after him again. They're already talking about to troops. Hey, guys, just so you know, the statute of limitations is 5 years for following unlawful orders. And that's going to be long after. Literally a quote, that will be long after Trump has left office. So what they're trying to communicate is the troops should be ignoring Trump because they will be prosecuted after. It's like I. That one enrages me because of what it does to the entire nation. And yeah, that, that is just stupid. And people are locked in this mental battle where they are making elections existential, which will make people want to do everything they can to rig an election. So it's like, oh my God, so dumb.

[Host 1]

It's so fact though. We gotta get you out of here with that.

[Host 2]

We gotta go. You guys are amazing. Forgive. We're gonna be missing this Friday. I'm gonna be out of town. December's weird for me. I'm. December is very much my family. First period. Starting in the new year though, we are going to three days a week. Three days a week, everybody. But we will be back next Wednesday. Back at it. Thank you guys so much for joining us. Means the world. Love you all and we'll see you next week.

[Host 1]

Have a good one.

[Host 2]

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