Podcast Summary: Arthur Hayes Predicts Massive Market Crash and Bitcoin Surge by 2030

Impact Theory with Tom Bilyeu
Date: January 9, 2026
Guests: Arthur Hayes ("Crypto Haze")

Overview

This episode features a wide-ranging and provocative conversation between Tom Bilyeu and Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and prominent crypto thought leader. In his signature candid style, Arthur predicts that aggressive money printing and political maneuvering will cause asset prices—including Bitcoin and stocks—to surge, followed by a major market crash before 2030, driven primarily by an overbuilt AI sector reminiscent of the railroad and Internet bubbles. The conversation moves from US monetary policy and presidential influence on the Fed, to the psychology of markets and wealth distribution, before zooming out to global power shifts, the fate of the dollar, stablecoins, the AI bubble, and the economic futures of the US, China, Japan, and Europe.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Political Influence on Central Banks and Inevitable Money Printing

[00:38-04:15]

• Tom frames the inevitability of inflation due to political pressure for easy money, especially if Trump returns, prompting Arthur to boldly predict astronomical rises across asset classes:
  • “S&P 10,000, NASDAQ 100,000. Bitcoin 1,000,000, gold 15,000 ... They're all going up ... because those are the things that have to go up as a release valve for, let's run the economy hot.” —Arthur Hayes [01:05]
• Arthur: Every US President ultimately gets the monetary policy they want, regardless of supposed Fed independence.
  • Mentions Arthur Burns’ “The Anguish of Central Banking” (1979) to illustrate political dominance over central banks.
  • “There’s never been a president who's never gotten the monetary policy that they desire. Trump will get his.” —Arthur Hayes [03:39]

2. Short-Term Weakness, Long-Term Asset Moves, and Removing Partisan Bias

[04:15-06:58]

• Current weakness in crypto and risk assets attributed to the timing of government actions, quantitative tightening, and debt ceiling fights.
• Shift towards public guarantees and lending to industrial sectors under Trump is fueling a coming rally.
• Policy to pump housing prices is bipartisan—investors should ignore partisan divides and just “get with the program.”
  • “Put in Kamala Harris as a Democrat, she'd be doing the same stuff.” —Arthur Hayes [05:22]
• Arthur’s advice: Buy stocks, crypto, gold; don’t use leverage, wait, and profit.

3. Human Nature and Market Psychology

[06:58-08:58]

• Tom and Arthur muse on why people panic and overtrade, despite knowing markets fluctuate.
  • “The market is not there to make you money. If you overtrade ... you’re just gambling.” —Arthur Hayes [07:20]
• Most people won’t develop the knowledge or discipline to adapt; they simply react to policy and market moves.

4. Societal Implications and AI as the Defining Challenge

[08:58-09:49, 13:25-17:15]

• Societal breakdown, rising inequality, and whether AI’s spoils will be shared are existential questions.
• “The colossal defining battle of this century ... is, are we going to blow ourselves up because we couldn’t decide how to share AI?” —Arthur Hayes [09:16]
• Tom worries about political intractability, echo chambers, and the fact that only “tremendous pain” changes political culture.
• Yet both agree: US is well-insulated from collapse relative to history—abundant food, energy, no external threats.

5. The Rise of China and Decline of US Hegemony

[17:15-22:52, 52:05-58:47]

• Tom articulates “Thucydides Trap,” where the US and China face increasing tension, economic battles, and potential global fragmentation—but not overnight crisis.
• Arthur: China will likely overtake the US as global #1, but the US will remain tremendously powerful. Limits imposed by other countries (esp. China) could prevent worst-case scenarios.
• In-depth, nuanced look at China:
  • “If you go to China right now … the four tier one cities in China, they are the future. Everything is seamless, everything is clean, stuff is cheap, the quality is good. This is the future. But youth unemployment might be 40%.” —Arthur Hayes [53:03]
  • The Chinese model: mass adoption of AI/robotics, high youth underemployment offset by family support, and preference for stability over aggressive expansion.

6. Outlook to 2030: Surges Then Crashes

[22:52-25:49, 30:07-37:19]

• Arthur expects a massive market crash between now and 2030 prompted by overbuilt, overhyped AI infrastructure—compared to both the railroad and Internet bubbles.
  • “The AI CapEx build out is as big or bigger than the build out of the railroad infrastructure in the 19th century...the largest in modern human history.” —Arthur Hayes [31:56]
• The market will see extreme asset appreciation, then a violent re-rating as returns on capital disappoint.
• This crash will lead to a “creative destruction,” enabling a new crop of productive companies, lower labor costs, and more human creativity.

7. The Future of Banking, Stablecoins, and Defi

[25:49-30:07]

• Stablecoins to become the new default banking system, especially among Gen Z and Millennials.
• Big banks and tech platforms will proliferate their own stablecoins, displacing traditional banks.
• Growth of DeFi will further erode legacy banking’s relevance.

8. The Logic and Tactics of Investing in Uncertain Times

[41:27-48:51]

• Arthur is avoiding direct AI investments right now—it’s “railroad economics,” best to wait for the crash and buy surviving winners.
  • “I don't want to be in the railroad business ... I want to buy Amazon in 2003 and 2004, not in 1999.” —Arthur Hayes [41:43]
• Emphasizes investing in “the fastest horse”—Bitcoin—over trying to pick equity winners.
  • “My whole job at Maelstrom ... is we do investments to make a return, I pay you a bonus, I take my return and I buy more bitcoin. That's all I do.” —Arthur Hayes [45:51]
• Avoids leverage; focuses on reading central bank liquidity and monetary signals rather than technical charts.

9. Global Hotspots: Japan, France, and the Fate of the Euro

[58:47-65:26]

• Japan has wealth, robots, and homogeneity; will handle demographic decline by repatriating capital and leveraging tech rather than importing labor.
• Yen carry trade unwind will prompt the West to print more money to shore up markets.
• Arthur is bearish on the Euro, expects France may ultimately break the system as nations reassert sovereignty over monetary policy.
  • “The Euro is a centralized monster ... France is horribly in debt and very unproductive with that debt. That's coming home to roost.” —Arthur Hayes [62:25-62:35]

10. Arthur’s Core Philosophy for Riding Out Instability

[65:26-66:43]

• Arthur stays calm because history repeats: easy money, debt jubilees, empire rise/fall, and asset appreciation have always followed the same pattern.
  • “Every time the politicians chose to print the money and every time math and the compound rate of interest and time worked against them. ... So as long as you do that and you don’t use leverage, you’ll be OK. Because again, time, mass and human nature are on your side.” —Arthur Hayes [66:11]

Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• Inevitable Asset Inflation:
  “S&P 10,000, NASDAQ 100,000. Bitcoin 1,000,000, gold 15,000...Pick your asset. They're all going up.” —Arthur Hayes [01:05]

• Presidential Power Over The Fed:
  “There’s never been a president who's never gotten the monetary policy that they desire.” —Arthur Hayes [03:39]

• On Human Nature in Markets:
  “The average human is impatient, wants the future today, is willing to gamble to get it. And unfortunately, the politicians play on that.” —Arthur Hayes [07:20]

• History Repeats:
  “Everything that we're experiencing today...We've done this all before. Rome, Weimar Republic, World War II...Politicians chose to print the money. ... if you own gold or certain other assets, you did well.” —Arthur Hayes [65:51-66:43]

• AI Bubble Analogy:
  “The AI CapEx build out is as big or bigger than the build out of the railroad infrastructure in the 19th century.” —Arthur Hayes [31:56]

• Investment Strategy:
  “My whole job...I pay you a bonus, I take my return and I buy more bitcoin. That's all I do.” —Arthur Hayes [45:51]

Key Timestamps of Important Segments

| Timestamp | Segment | |-----------|---------| | 00:38–01:39 | Explosive asset price forecasts; inflation inevitability | | 03:39 | History: Presidents always get “their” Fed policy | | 04:45–06:58 | Why crypto dipped; partisanship is irrelevant for asset holders | | 06:58–08:58 | Human psychology and market impatience | | 13:25–17:15 | Concern over societal collapse, US unique strengths | | 17:15–22:52 | Tom and Arthur on the US-China power shift | | 22:52–25:49 | A coming 2030 market crash; impact of runaway AI | | 25:49–30:07 | Stablecoins as the bank of the future, DeFi rise | | 31:56–37:19 | AI compared to railroad/Internet bubbles; coming crash | | 41:43–45:51 | Why not to invest in AI now; focus on Bitcoin | | 45:51–48:51 | Investment logic: fastest horse is Bitcoin | | 53:03–58:47 | Deep analysis of China’s AI, social stability, economic model | | 58:47–61:52 | Japan’s future—robots, domestic investment, repatriation | | 62:25–65:26 | Eurozone’s doom; France as the trigger | | 65:26–66:43 | Arthur’s philosophical approach—lessons from history |

Final Takeaways

• Money printing and political expediency are constants; asset prices will rise dramatically before a crash.
• The greatest risk is in overhyped infrastructure investments (AI today = railroads/Internet); don’t get caught holding the bag.
• Bitcoin, as an unleveraged, digitally native, fixed-supply asset, is Arthur’s pick for surviving this era.
• History’s cycles—empires rising/falling, debt crises, policymaker responses—give reassurance that “this too shall pass.”
• Stablecoin adoption and DeFi will disrupt banking as we know it.
• Long-term calm comes from reading history, understanding human psychology, and not betting against the perennial printing press.