What They’re Not Telling You About the Iran War: Power, Propaganda & Protest, The Collapse of White Collar Work: 20% Unemployment Predicted by AI Leaders, Bernie’s $4.4 Trillion Wealth Raid: Will It Destroy America’s Economy? | Weekly Recap

Summary

Impact Theory with Tom Bilyeu: Weekly Recap — “What They’re Not Telling You About the Iran War; Collapse of White Collar Work; Bernie’s $4.4 Trillion Wealth Raid”

Date: March 8, 2026
Host: Tom Bilyeu

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Episode Overview

In this hard-hitting weekly recap, Tom Bilyeu tackles three urgent topics at the center of today’s headlines:

• The real motives and global consequences behind the new Iran War
• The AI-driven collapse of white-collar work and radical predictions for unemployment
• Bernie Sanders’ jaw-dropping $4.4 trillion billionaire tax proposal and its possible impact on the US economy

Tom methodically strips away hype and misinformation, offering listeners the context and first-principles analysis needed to see through propaganda, meme news, and partisan noise.

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1. The Iran War: Power, Propaganda & Protest

[01:00–13:10]

Setting the Stage: Not Another "No New Wars" Scenario

• “Economics just went kinetic as the US has launched a war against Iran. America, Israel, UK, France and a massive swath of the Middle East are now at war. The only question is how big does it get? How long does it go on for?” — Tom [01:04]
• Tom warns listeners to be wary of the “narrative warfare” waged by all sides, fueled by propaganda and AI-generated misinformation.

Five Forces Driving the Conflict

1. $2 Trillion Gulf Investment Commitments

• “Trump secured over $2 trillion in investment agreements… These deals are the centerpiece of Trump's economic agenda…” — Tom [03:27]
• Iran’s potential disruption to the Strait of Hormuz (31% of seaborne oil flows) makes Gulf stability existential for Trump’s strategy.

2. Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions – A Narrowing Window

• "The US Defense Intelligence Agency estimated it would take Iran probably less than one week to produce enough weapons-grade uranium for a first bomb... But that's likely exaggerated." — Tom [05:05]
• A sense of urgency driven by failed past efforts and recent Iranian undergrounding of nuclear facilities.

3. Israeli Strategic Necessity and Alliance Management

• "Israel was going to act again regardless. The question was whether the US would be a coordinating partner or a bystander." — Tom [06:38]
• US involvement offers escalation management but risks perceptions of “following” Israel.

4. Regime Decapitation & Destabilization

• “A month and a half before the attack, Iran massacred… thousands, maybe tens of thousands… during the largest protest since the Islamic Revolution…” — Tom [08:45]
• Tom distinguishes between Iraq-style regime change (“no boots on the ground”) and a strategy banking on internal revolt post-strike.

5. Domestic Political Calculus—Trump’s Motivations

• “Trump ultimately is going to be receiving massive backlash. He already is. Even Nick Fuentes has turned against Trump.” — Tom [11:30]
• With mid-terms and the threat of impeachment looming, Trump is maximizing perceived power and minimizing risk of US casualties.

Notable Quotes:

• “I’m not asking you to like it. I’m just telling you: this is the way the world is playing out. This is great power politics before your very eyes.” — Tom [09:45]
• “The last piece: the China of it all. There’s a proxy war going on beneath this. It’s critically important.” — Tom [12:57]

Religion vs. First Principles

• Some pushback from listeners: “Some people willingly turn down wealth for integrity…”
• Tom’s reply: “It’s not zero [religious motivation]. But if you want to explain why now? What’s the REAL motivation right now? … Religion is going to leave you wanting. Economics explains it.” [14:14]

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2. AI Wipes Out White Collar Jobs: Predictions of 20% Unemployment

[15:50–24:57]

AI Goes from Threat to Reality: Jack Dorsey’s Mass Layoffs

• “Jack Dorsey, in a move that is… prophetic… just lopped off 4,400 people from his company Block. That’s nearly half his staff… Dorsey said directly he was firing everyone because AI has simply gotten so good…” — Tom [16:40]
• Block already profitable — layoffs not cost-cutting, but direct productivity gain from AI.

Rapid Broad Impact: Not Just Coders

• “While we were waiting for the truck drivers to get fired, all the software coding jobs are kind of getting eaten right now… all these different industries... are on a timeline. AI is showing up now." — Interviewer [19:16]
• Tom: “What industries are most impacted by disembodied intelligence?... Those are all going to go away. Those are all going to change dramatically.” [19:38]

The Economic Timing Problem

• “If we were in an economic upswing... more people would start their own companies. In depressed economic times, most will get hit by a Mack truck.” — Tom [20:27]
• Current context means more pain, less opportunity to “pivot,” particularly for mid-career workers.

Scale of Disruption:

• US government and private companies have announced 675,000+ layoffs in 16 months.
• Job report revision: lost about 1.6 million jobs overall in 24 months.

How Bad Does It Get?

• “Anthropic CEO Amodi... said AI likely to lead to roughly 20% unemployment in white collar jobs in the next year or two. That means within 12–18 months... If it’s only 10%, that is still psychotically disruptive.” — Tom [18:00]

Notable Quote:

• "The last three major changes — Industrial Revolution, electrification, and Internet — all wiped out one to two generations, man… your kid's life was rocky, but your grandkids' life was awesome." — Tom [23:12]

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3. Sanders’ $4.4 Trillion Billionaire Wealth Tax: Will It Destroy America’s Economy?

[24:57–32:00]

The Proposal Unpacked

• Bernie Sanders’ new bill: $4.4 trillion tax on US billionaires; almost cuts their collective wealth in half.
• Proceeds: $3,000 stimulus checks to all earning under $150K, reversing Medicaid cuts, raising public school teacher salaries, expanding Medicare, funding affordable housing, universal childcare, and more.

Tom on Redistributive Policies & Real Math

• “Credit where credit is due: [Bernie] is like, I’m going to steal from these bitches, but I’m going to give it to you… we’re in on the racket together. That’s at least smart.” — Tom [25:21]
• But he quickly points out: “What he’s stealing is going to be roughly two years just of overage [deficit spending]. So if I took ALL their wealth: just four years of overage. I’m not changing anything…” — Tom [27:04]

Likely Consequences and the China Parallel

• "If you depart the cause and effect train for the emotional train, you start acting like an idiot and you make decisions that absolutely collapse economies." — Tom [30:10]
• Comparison to Maoist China — equalizing outcomes killed innovation; after Deng's reforms, innovation soared as inequality returned.
• “None of that money is real. All the assets plummet in value when you force the wealthy to sell… and they leave, or simply stop creating.” — Tom [29:22]

Memorable Moments

• “Schrodinger’s money! … If you look at the money, then the money’s there. But if you don't see it…” — Interviewer and Tom share a laugh over a listener’s “JayWelk92” quip [31:38–32:00]
  • Tom vows to steal the joke endlessly.

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Key Takeaways

• The Iran War is less about ideology than it’s about power, economic architecture, and great-power maneuvering—though protest and regime fragility add volatility.
• AI is not a future risk but a present disruption, already causing mass layoffs in sectors once thought safe. The speed and scale risk serious social instability and generational displacement.
• Redistributive, wealth-confiscation policies like Sanders’ face hard mathematical and behavioral constraints: there simply isn’t enough billionaire money to sustain permanent spending increases; attempts to seize assets will cripple innovation and future wealth creation.

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Selected Timestamps

• [01:04] — Tom’s opening breakdown of the Iran situation
• [03:27] — The $2 trillion Gulf investment driver
• [06:38] — Israeli strikes and US-Israeli alliance dynamics
• [08:45] — Iranian massacres, protest, and regime instability
• [11:30] — Political consequences for Trump, even from his base
• [12:57] — The “China of it all” as a proxy consideration
• [14:14] — Economics vs religion in revolution and war
• [16:40] — Jack Dorsey’s AI-driven mass layoff at Block
• [18:00] — Anthropic CEO’s 20% white-collar unemployment prediction
• [19:38] — Disembodied intelligence and sectors most at risk
• [23:12] — Industrialization and generational disruption recap
• [25:03] — Sanders’ $4.4 trillion wealth tax discussion begins
• [27:04] — Tom explains how the money would quickly run out
• [29:22] — Behavioral and economic consequences of confiscatory policy
• [31:38] — “Schrodinger’s Money” moment

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Final Word

In a world where the pace of change accelerates and narrative control is a tool of geopolitics and economics, Tom Bilyeu’s recurring message is clear: “See the world as it actually is—cruel, complex, disrupted, and rife with opportunity for those awake enough to respond.” If you want clarity and radical transparency, this is an essential listen.

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Like the summary? Let us know which segment you want a deeper dive on!

Transcript

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[Interviewer]

All right Mr. No New wars has got us in what seems like another war.

[Tom (Expert/Analyst)]

Economics just went kinetic as the US has launched a war against Iran. America, Israel, uk, France and a massive swath of the Middle east are now at war. The only question is how? How big does it get? How long does it go on for? To understand that, though, we have to understand what is actually going on. Because as always with these things, people are getting distracted by messaging around. This AI is throwing a ton of lies into the mix. There is so much propaganda. But understand that you are in the middle of an information landscape that is all about fighting a battle on that front as well, getting people to believe things from the perspective of whatever country is laying things out. So keep that in mind as we go through all of this. If you look at what he said to the Iranian people, this is words, this is a paraphrase, but it's pretty close. This is your chance to rise up and take your country back. If you look at what he did in Venezuela, this was not about him going in and putting boots on the ground. Now I think this is going to play out very differently than Venezuela. Iran and Venezuela are two very different animals. However, what I want people to understand is how differently Trump moves when it comes to these kinds of attacks. Trump is selfish and pragmatic. If you understand him through that lens, the way that he's going to handle Iran is going to make a lot more sense. He is guaranteed a loss in the midterms if he gets drug into putting troops on the ground. Now will Israel put boots on the ground? That's far more believable Trump is going to claim victory while staying at 30,000ft. As long as, and this is narrative warfare, as long as he can say that he set back their nuclear ambitions. If you try to trace this all through cause and effect, if you think up from first principles, what motivates people to do the kinds of things that we're seeing the US do, that we're seeing the Iranians do, the people of Iran versus the regime of Iran, how the regime of Iran will kill its own people, how the people of Iran are willing to rise up, because the people of Iran see this very differently than the messaging would have you believe. Putting all the things on the table. I think that there are five things that are at play here. The first thing that's going on right now, the economic thread that's going to tie all of this together, is protecting the $2 trillion in Gulf investment commitments. This is the biggest issue for Trump. I'm going to round this to 35% of his motivation. Trump secured over $2 trillion in investment agreements across Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE. Guess who's getting bombed by Iran. These deals are the centerpiece of Trump's economic agenda. Manufacturing, AI, infrastructure, defense sales, energy development. It's also how he's pulling Gulf sovereign wealth away from China. Now, here's the problem. About 20 million barrels of oil transit the Strait of Hormuz daily, equaling roughly 31% of all seaborne oil flows. Iran has the ability to threaten or disrupt that choke point at will. This is why the US has been going after all of their naval ships, because they're worried that they're going to plant mines in the Strait of Hormuz, causing global disruption. Many analysts have warned that if they're able to disrupt just that one strait, that a global recession is all but guaranteed on the back of the disruption to oil prices. Now, you cannot build a $2 trillion economic architecture in the Gulf. Right. If you're President Trump. While the biggest military threat to Gulf stability sits across the water with ballistic missiles, proxy armies, and a credible nuclear breakout capability, he's toast. His whole economic agenda is the only thing that he's riding on. The only way that Trump can continue to spend recklessly is if he grows. Okay, let's talk nuclear breakout. We'll put that in the second position. If you look at the focus here, you have a closing window here. That will is roughly 25% of what is being done. What's motivating this move at this time? Now, the U.S. defense Intelligence Agency estimated it would take Iran probably less than one week to produce enough weapons grade uranium for a first bomb. We've heard that so many times. So that I think you can just assume is not actually true, that it's something more like they haven't given up their nuclear ambitions. They're still pushing it forward though even there's some debate around that. But obviously the June 2025 strikes that damaged facilities didn't necessarily eliminate the entire program. And one of Iran's key lessons from the June 2025 war is that you can make it far more expensive for them to be attacked if you drive those things into underground facilities because they're more immune to strikes. They're hidden from IAEA inspectors on and on. So every month of delay made a future military option just more expensive. But this urgency existed in 2024 as well, and we didn't do anything about it. So what changed was the economic architecture that made tolerating that threat impossible because you've got to stabilize things. Okay, three, this is the one that gets everybody up in arms. Israeli strategic necessity and alliance management. So Iran has been on an escalatory trajectory with Israel since October of 2023 for obvious reasons. October 7th. That just set a lot of things in motion. Israel's strategy over the prior two years had transformed from containing IR proxies to directly striking Iran itself. Neutralizing Hezbollah's second strike threat in Lebanon, destroying air defense systems in Syria and opening a direct flight path into Iranian airspace. Israel had already struck Iran in June of 25. Iran and Israeli proxies have been engaged in conflict since 1985, which escalated into direct confrontations in 2024. And then the 12 day war that I'm sure all of you guys are very aware of from 2025. Israel was going to act again regardless. Okay? Israel was going to do their thing. The question was whether the US Would be a coordinating partner or a bystander. And joining the operation gives the US operational control over escalation management and ensures that the strikes align with American economic interests in the region rather than purely Israeli ones. If Trump knows that he's going to get involved that he's going to trail Israel, that is terrible for the Trump is a puppet of Israel narrative. So he's going to be hyper aware of that and then also he's going to want to take credit credit for this if it goes well. Now that's a gigantic if. And that brings us to the fourth thing. Regime decapitation and opportunistic destabilization. I'm going to put this at 15% because it's such a big if. A month and a half before the attack, Iran massacred thousands, maybe tens of thousands. Reports go all the way up to 30,000 plus of their own civilians getting killed during the largest protest since the Islamic Revolution back in the 70s. The regime was already fragile, okay? Khomeini was 86. There was no clear succession plan that wouldn't produce internal power struggles, although they did replace him, only to have him killed, like, a couple of hours later. All of that creates the potential for a power vacuum while the Iranian public is already in a revolutionary mood. So this isn't regime change in the Iraq sense. Nobody's going to be deploying ground troops. It's about decapitation. That's designed to let internal dynamics do the work. Now we'll see if the Iranian people rise up. Presumably, if you've killed 30,000 of them, that strikes to the heart of people's desire to go out and protest. But from some of the footage I've seen, man, they're going to, what, look like. I don't know what the buildings are, but they look like official structures. They look large, monumental kinds of structures, where they're dancing, waving American flags, Iranian flags, Israeli flags. This may be one of those historic moments where the internal tensions were so high that simply by delivering a destabilizing blow, that the people in the country really do have what they need to move in and to get this going. Will see. But that, I think, is the only way that you'll see a regime change is whatever the people inside the country do. This is where I think the most direct look at Venezuela comes in. Trump is selfish and pragmatic, okay? So if you think of him that way, you look at what he did in Venezuela. Hey, Maduro, super happy to negotiate with you. Oh, you don't want to negotiate? Word. Boom. Blow up a bunch of people, grab him, snatch him up, parade him around New York streets in an open van. That is the most 20, 26 dystopian social media shit I've ever seen in my life. Absolutely crazy new person comes in, hey, do you want to end up like Maduro, or do you want to negotiate? And he'll just go down the list and so cool. Iran, this is your shot. Iranian people rise up, and if you guys are chill, then we'll just march forward in lockstep. If you're not and we've got a problem, then I'm going to negotiate with battleships. I mean, that's just the Trump playbook. Again, I'm not asking you guys to like it. I'm just telling you this is the way that the world is playing out. This is great power politics before your very eyes. And having all this happen in 2026, where we can see everything happening in real time and the flood of information is just nonstop and it is very difficult to hide anything, we are going to be asked to confront the realities of war and not just the niceties, the narrative, the actual reality that people do what they can. While I wish we lived in a world where these kind of power politics weren't, the reality that humans aren't the most dangerous and deadly animal that God ever created and that we didn't constantly clash with, with each other, but we do. And so this is the world that we live in now. Whether all of this produces a better outcome is such a massive question mark. The military action can delay nuclear programs, but they're rarely going to eliminate them. Not when the will of the people is such that we need this. Understand that Iran believes that they need a nuclear program because no one is coming to save them. They're in a hostile region. And so if they are going to preserve themselves, because remember, they were invaded by Iraq at one point, so it's not like they look around and see nothing but friends. They look around and see that they're surrounded by enemies and allies and that they need to become strong because nobody is going to save them. And they don't ever want to be in the position that they were in during the Iraq, Iran conflict, where they were getting gassed and their people were being killed by the Iraqis in contravention of international law. And they just realized, oh, I guess this is. It doesn't matter. And if Iranian suffering is good for somebody else, then Iranians will suffer. The last piece, domestic political calculus. Trump ultimately is going to be receiving massive backlash. He already is. So even Nick Fuentes has turned against Trump.

[Interviewer]

Do not vote in the midterms. The Republicans have to lose.

[Tom (Expert/Analyst)]

He feels betrayed by Trump and the whole America first agenda. No new wars. I'm sure Trump is still going to beat the drum of I'm the president of peace. But the reality is the accurate brand would be he's the president of power. Trump is powerful. He is exerting the might of the US Military, and he'll give you an opportunity for peace, but if you don't take it, he will strike. I don't think he's doing this because he is truly a president of peace. I don't think he's doing this because he thinks that the American people will be on his side in the beginning. I think he's doing this because he knows it will be effective and it positions America in a place of dominance, which will be good economically if he pulls it off. Now, if it turns into a show, destabilizes the Middle east, the Strait of Hormuz gets closed down. Now, you're going to see a problem, certainly for our allies, but in the US Given how much energy we produce for ourself, we will probably suffer the brunt of that the least. However, it will make it very difficult for Trump to hit his economic agenda. And so, yeah, you can expect if it turns into a show, it'll be a political nightmare for him. And I don't think he's a fool. He understands if this goes poorly, he's out in the midterms. He will get impeached immediately. He will get voted out of office in 28, barring something unforeseen. And then they will hound him legally until the end of time. And so this really becomes existential. So I don't think he's doing this because he thinks the American people are like, yes, please go invade Iran. I think it's far more complicated than that. And I'll also place on here an overarching thing that needs to be woven into the bedrock of the number one motivator, which is China, the China of it all. Understanding that there's a proxy war going on beneath this, it's critically important.

[Interviewer]

Okay, and then Pete Hegseth had a press briefing earlier, and a journalist asked him a really good question. I want to hear his response and then hear kind of your breakdown of it.

[Reagan Reese (Daily Caller Journalist)]

Reagan Reese with the Daily Caller. Two questions for you. The President said yesterday in his video message that we will leave Iran when we complete all of our objectives. What are our objectives? And can you share more information on how the soldiers who were killed were killed.

[Interviewer]

So what are our objectives?

[Tom (Expert/Analyst)]

Well, I laid out the objectives, as did the chairman. They're completely nested. I mean, Iran has an ability to project power against us and our allies in ways that we can't tolerate. So, okay, this is part of the dog and pony show. You're going to hear that a lot. A true thing. That does not explain the timing. And so part of what I'm trying to get people to focus on, to actually understand how all of this stuff plays out. And yes, true statement, but not at all explanatory of why now? Marusha Dark316 says Tom, I grant you that economics matters a lot. But I feel like you are. You are guilty of single variable thinking. Some people willingly turn down wealth for integrity or even die for their principles.

[Interviewer]

There is a religious aspect to this all.

[Tom (Expert/Analyst)]

Yeah. So it's a very fair point. And I want to make sure that people understand I'm certainly not reducing this down to a single variable. And I think what you're trying to get me to focus on is what is the role of the religious aspect? And I will say this. It's not zero. How did we get the people to rise up? We broke their back economically. Okay, so I get it. That stuff. You're 100% right. And humans need that thing to live and die for. I agree wholeheartedly. There's no doubt about that. And I don't want to gloss over that. What I'm trying to explain is why now? What's the real motivation right now? And if we want to talk about how we end up with a religious uprising, we can certainly do that. You know, where they take power in 1979. We can talk about life through a religious angle. For sure. We can talk about. Is that part of why the IRGC is fighting as hard as they are? Is that why you still see moral police on the trains in Iran, even as the people are stopping to wear their hijabs, which is happening right now? All of that, we can have that conversation. But if you want to understand what gears turn to make something happen right now, religion is going to leave you wanting. And the thing that will explain it is going to be economics. I'm trying to lay all these things out on the table. I didn't spend a lot of time talking about religion because I don't think it's a big play in terms of what's happening right now. We're hitting pause for a moment, but there's plenty more ahead, so don't go anywhere. Thanks for sticking around. Let's get right back into the action. Language fails me in my ability to articulate to people the need to wake up and pay attention to what's going on. The Jack thing really is that thing. It's the moment, like, if you think about, like, the timeline of, like, the adoption of AI and how AI actually impacted the world. Jack's tweet is going to be on that, or what Jack did and then announced it is going to be on that. It's pretty crazy. I think this is really going to be something massive. AI just went from threatening the job market to actually blowing a hole through it. Jack Dorsey in A move that is prophetic. Hear my words. Is prophetic of what is to come over the next 12 months. Just lopped off 4400 people from his company block. That's nearly half of his staff. The company is already wildly profitable. They do roughly $2 million in profit per employee, which is better than most companies by a lot. And that they had already done the right sizing post Covid back in 2024. So that's not what this move was about. Dorsey said directly he was firing everyone because AI has simply gotten so good that they can do more with smaller teams. He noted that giving the productivity boosts that they're already seeing from A.I. okay, just, just what's already happened and what is likely to come in the future. It was either continuously reduce staff slowly over the next couple of years and still end up at the same result, or do it all in one fell swoop to maximize the benefits and preserve company morale, which is often hurt more by slow attrition. So this is one of those breathtaking moves that if people understand in context and they get what's really happening, they are going to understand. The phrase that I keep coming to is AI is terraforming the entire planet, but it is certainly terraforming right now. The jobs market. It is just going to be fundamentally different over the next 24 months. Not saying that they all go away. I'm going to give you some predictions about what other people have said in terms of how much unemployment there's going to be. But for a second, even if you don't see a doomsday scenario, the odds that the job market looks anything like it did at the beginning of 25 in two years is zero. It is going to be radically different. And if people do not understand how fast paced this is already moving, they are going to get caught flat footed. Specific predictions wise Anthropic CEO Amodi who we're just talking about, he said a while ago that AI was likely to lead to roughly 20% unemployment in white collar jobs in the next year or two. So that means we're talking the next 12 to 18 months. Given that he said that a while ago, if he's even directionally correct and let's say it's only 10% that is still psychotically disruptive. Understand that a 4% unemployment rate is like okay, we're comfortable there. 10% more than double. 20% 5x like you start getting into depression territory, it doesn't mean that we'll actually be in a depression. I want to be very Clear. It's all unknown. We don't know how this stuff is going to manifest, but it is going to be radically different.

[Interviewer]

It's interesting. I wanted to pull something up. I was looking for it. This was a book. I don't even know what the title is. But he outlined exactly what is coming next. And this is going to lead to

[Tom (Expert/Analyst)]

my ultimate question so that people have the appropriate context. This is a book that's outlining what jobs are disappearing and when and basically

[Interviewer]

why people thought the truck drivers were going away. Right when Tesla announced the semi truck. And we're like, dang, all the truck drivers are going to get fired. And while we were waiting for the truck drivers to get fired, all the software coding jobs are kind of getting eaten right now. And then we're going to turn over there, like, oh, okay, they got Silicon Valley and then we're going to turn this way and all the lawyers are gone. And it just seems like all these different industries, separately and equally are all on a timeline to AI is showing up now.

[Tom (Expert/Analyst)]

Yeah. If you understand that what AI actually is, is just intelligence, then it's like, okay, well what industries are most impacted by disembodied intelligence? Because right now they are increasingly in robotics and so they are increasingly mobile in the same way that humans are. But I would say they lag way farther behind in the physicality, the ability to go into a space, especially like an unpredictable space, like think of an electrician. Sometimes you're crawling under a house, sometimes you have to open up a wall. Like all of this ST stuff is, is very difficult because it's just, it's not standardized when you disembody it and you standardize something through a computer. Now a computer is like the ultimate rules based universe. Once you're in the computer, everything is just a bunch of if this, then that statements. And so intelligence is all that you need. When you take that lens and look at the world and say, okay, what are those disembodied intelligence based jobs? Those are all going to go away. Those are all going to change dramatically. So one person will be able to do a lot more. Now, if we were in an economic upswing as AI were coming on board, I would have a totally different read on this. And I would say there's so much money sloshing around in the system, you know, everybody's jubilant. What's going to end up happening is more and more people are going to start their own companies, which I do believe is going to happen. But there's Enough money for a lot of these companies to succeed. The reality is this is happening in an economically depressed moment. So all of that same fracturing is going to happen. I have an ongoing pitch for people that they need to be starting a company. Like if you have even a minor entrepreneurial bone in your body. And look, I'm hyper aware, I'm saying that to a bunch of employees who, if they listen to me, are going to go start their own thing. But the reality is I don't, I try not to fight the, the tides of history like this is just the way that it's going to be. More and more people are going to start their own company, rightly so. And in good economic times, I think a lot of them would survive. Unfortunately, in depressed economic times, most of them are going to get hit by a Mack truck. And as long as that window stays open, people have a chance to enrich themselves by being a little bit faster to getting to the AI.

[Interviewer]

I like the future looking perspective and encouraging people to start businesses and things like that. But there's two things that I was seeing in this Jack tweet, like the Jack tweet, I was going through the comments and stuff like that. On one hand, the US government and private companies over the last, let's call it, 16 months has announced more than 675,000 layoffs. And this is the 300 from Doge, 78,000 from UPS, 30,000 from Amazon. Aggregating all of those together. And then on the other hand, we have the revised job report. We lost a million jobs, hypothetically speaking, we're like negative 1.6 million jobs over the last 24 months. I'm being a little bit flexible with the timelines. That alone kind of to your point, if this was a different economic situation, people be like, yeah, let me go start my company right now. But I think a lot of people are home kind of feeling struggles as opposed to like being excited to get to the next step. Now going to my main question now everybody's thinking, okay, if 2 million people are getting, are losing their job and then we have another, let's say 10 million people that are going to lose their job from all these other different industries because of AI, who's going to be spending the money? Who's going to be buying these things? Are robots going to be selling other robots? When did that crash the economy? Help us figure out what happens when this much job loss gets pulled out? And what would the actual thing happen to prices, commodities? Would the rich just be okay on their island? Like what would actually happen to the economy in totality.

[Tom (Expert/Analyst)]

Yeah. So we're going to predict the future, which means we are going to be wrong. However, I think that we can get pretty directionally correct. So there are two paths before you. Path number one is bloodshed. And the anxiety in the system builds up as more and more people lose their jobs, that they just don't care that yes, it's going to be better for my grandkids, but it's not better for me. And so, you know, a year is a long time when you're faced with tremendous uncertainty. And if you shove enough people into tremendous uncertainty in a moment of populism, they will revolt. Then you've got it disrupted. It absolutely cratered. A generation, maybe two. But it, the gifts that it brings are so profound that everybody is just like, keep your eye on the prize. This is making the world so much better. And everybody's so enthusiastic about the new jobs that are coming on the market. It that kids coming out of high school are just thrilled and they're like, oh my God. The opportunities that are open to me that were never open before. This is incredible. And all these boomers that are like doomsdaying AI, like, I don't. You guys weren't trained on the right thing. That's a you problem. Now let's keep in mind the last three major changes that we've had. Industrial revolution, electrification and Internet iFooding. All three of those wiped out one to two generation generations, man. And, and those people literally was like, you would lose your job, let's say in your mid to late 30s, and then your life sucked for the rest of your life. Your kid's life was rocky, but your grandkids life was awesome because they got to build on top of this new technology that just repeats and repeats and repeats. Deaths of despair from the Internetification. We are still dealing with that. And so I think a lot of people, because a lot of them were young and don't realize just how many boomers and Gen Xers got run over by that bus. Especially when you realize that the Internet is part of what allowed globalization to become. Become what it became. These things tend to play out like that, but it does create this tremendous opportunity. Taking a short break, but there's more impact theory after Stay tuned. Thanks for staying tuned. Now let's get back to it.

[Interviewer]

Bernie Sanders is proposing a bill to raise 4.4 trillion in taxes from America's billionaires.

[Tom (Expert/Analyst)]

Let's go.

[Interviewer]

Move. That would virtually cut their massive fortunes in half.

[Tom (Expert/Analyst)]

The richest people are doing phenomenally well, and in many cases, they are paying very little in taxes.

[Interviewer]

A chunk of the money will go towards sending 3k stimulus checks to every person earning 150k.

[Tom (Expert/Analyst)]

Okay, okay, so that's smart.

[Interviewer]

There goes the money in the pocket.

[Tom (Expert/Analyst)]

Hey, hey. Credit where credit is due at least. He's like, all right, I'm gonna steal from these bitches, but I'm gonna give it to you because I don't. I'm not gonna balance the budget, but I'm gonna. I'm gonna steal, but I'm. I'm gonna steal from you.

[Interviewer]

I'm giving to you.

[Tom (Expert/Analyst)]

I'm gonna give you some. I'm gonna give you some money. So now we're in on the racket together. That's at least smart. This is Trump's playbook. This is people really going, oh, word morality. Doesn't matter. Don't. None of that matters. I'm going to take Yoshi. I'm going to break the economy. Don't worry. Don't worry about that part. It's all going to be bad.

[Interviewer]

You have 3,000. What's the economy?

[Tom (Expert/Analyst)]

But I'm going to give you three grand. So this is going to be awesome. Look, I know it. Hey, it didn't work out in New York, And I know 47 days after promising that he was gonna, like, put money in your pocket, make a bunch free started, you raised your taxes. I know, I know, I know. Your rents went up despite me promising I was gonna lower it. Don't worry about that. Just let me take their money and I'll give you three grand. It's gonna be good. You guys are gonna love it.

[Interviewer]

It gets better. It gets better.

[Tom (Expert/Analyst)]

This is.

[Interviewer]

The money would also be used to reverse the cuts to Medicaid, raise the minimum salary of every public school teacher to 60K, expand Medicare to cover dental, vision and hearing for seniors. 850 billion of affordable housing. Another tweet had, like, end homelessness. So when they say affordable housing, it's not just like luxury apartments in downtown LA type thing. So please provide universal child care.

[Tom (Expert/Analyst)]

Remind me, how much of what was the raw amount of dollars he was going to take from the wealthy?

[Interviewer]

4.4 trillion.

[Tom (Expert/Analyst)]

Okay, Drew, do you remember how many trillion dollars just in deficit spending we do every year?

[Interviewer]

I want to say it's 2.5.

[Tom (Expert/Analyst)]

Yep. So roughly 2.

[Interviewer]

Yeah, 2.

[Tom (Expert/Analyst)]

So what he's stealing is going to be roughly two years just of overage. So he's going to take half their wealth. So he's now admitting if I took all their wealth. It's just four years of overage. I'm not changing anything about our deficit spending. And by the way, I'm going to increase our deficit spending once we're out of this, because these policies all be put in place. And I will, as Margaret Thatcher has tried to tell people, I will have run out of other people's money. Now I have nowhere to go. I did not change our spending problem at all. And first, I bought you two years just of the deficit spending, by the way, at current levels. So all the smoke and mirrors and all, that's all. Then after four years, even if I confiscate all their wealth, all their wealth, wealth, 100% of it, guess who I'm coming after next?

[Interviewer]

Did not sell. Billionaires.

[Tom (Expert/Analyst)]

Correct. Because you guys have all the money. And once people understand billionaires only have like, I forget the exact number, I'm gonna. It's less than 10%. So now all of a sudden it's like, oh, Z's. They're coming for everybody. This is how it always plays out. And so it is wild to me. Either Bernie Sanders is so dumb dumb that he has no business being an elected official or he is evil. He doesn't, he actually doesn't strike me as dumb or, sorry, he doesn't strike me as evil. I don't look at him and see somebody who's evil. So I'm only left with he's dumb. So it is. Look, economics, they are hard to understand. It is a very complex animal. But the same people that will just go ballistic over tariffs or attacks and how dare you. And this is going to absolutely destroy the economy, cannot see their way to running the map math on, well, how much wealth do they have? And if you take it all, what are you left with? And once you take it all, what are you, Are you going to then change the spending structure? And oh, P.S. if you're willing to change the spending structure in four years, why aren't you willing to change it now? Because you can't give these breaks to everybody for long. You know that. Your own math tells you that.

[Interviewer]

So cool.

[Tom (Expert/Analyst)]

I accept. Remember his own words. I'm taking half their wealth now to give you guys three grand checks and make these changes. None of that's going to impact the deficit.

[Interviewer]

What happens in two years?

[Tom (Expert/Analyst)]

Yeah, correct. And so then it's like, whoa, well, he's going to steal the rest. Yeah, probably. But by the way, we haven't even talked about one thing which we have to talk about. Hey, as a Reminder, you're going to force. None of that money is real. Okay? This is the part that people keep forgetting. It's not real money. It's potential money. And when you go and try to sell, make them sell their things so that they can pay this tax burden, it breaks the economy. All the assets plummet in value. Also, if you're a builder and the government just took away half of your money, 1. Did you flee the country ahead of time? Yes. Did you do anything and everything that you could to avoid this? Yes. Will you stop producing if there are no upsides? Yes. Tom. How do you know that's true? Tom, are you just reading that Ayn Rand book? No. Motherf cker. I'm looking at China. So look at China. Innovation equals zero for Mao's entire reign. Why? Because he wanted to make sure that everybody had equal outcomes. And so there was no reward for you for innovating. So why the would you innovate? Then Mao dies, Deng Xiaoping comes into power, and he says getting rich is awesome. And he lets what happen. He lets people get inequal outcomes. He lets inequality happen. And what happens? Over the next couple of decades, more people are pulled out of grinding poverty than any other time in human history. Oh, that's right. These policies have consequences. And when you incentivize builders to build by letting them win more than the next person person. They innovate and they build and it helps everybody. And when you break their back and steal their. They stop innovating. So, boys and girls, can we please admit these things are knowable? The cause and effect is knowable. And if you depart the cause and effect train for the emotional train, you start acting like a idiot and you make decisions that absolutely collapse economies. It's so.

[Interviewer]

Okay, we got some super chats, but there's been two bangers. One CC crazy said, I thought we had financial deficit because we already ran out of other people's money. That's good.

[Tom (Expert/Analyst)]

And then why is that good?

[Interviewer]

No, that was like, funny. Like, it's funny. Like, the reason we have a spending deficit is because we already don't have enough money to take. So why are we trying to like, run that math?

[Tom (Expert/Analyst)]

Yeah. Facts. Okay. Yes. Just a funny joke.

[Interviewer]

Yeah, No, I don't want to trigger you.

[Tom (Expert/Analyst)]

Move on.

[Interviewer]

I'm triggered. Second one was Jay Welk, 92. He said, It's Schroedinger's money. That's why.

[Tom (Expert/Analyst)]

Schrodinger's money.

[Interviewer]

Schrodinger's money. So, oh my God. If you look at the money, then the money's there. But if you don't see it.

[Tom (Expert/Analyst)]

Oh, my God. Wait, who said that?

[Interviewer]

Jay woke 92.

[Tom (Expert/Analyst)]

Jay, you are. I'm gonna steal that endlessly.

[Interviewer]

That was good.

[Tom (Expert/Analyst)]

Please know I won't always remember to credit you, but in your heart, you need to know every time I call it Schrodinger's Money that you deserve the credit. And you can just play this clip on a loop. Schrodinger's money. Oh, my God, that's so good.

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