← Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
BREAKING: Charlie Kirk's Killer In Custody But Are We Past the Point of Healing? Reflections After Charlie Kirk’s Death
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- [00:01]
Impact Theory Host (Tom Bilyeu)
All right, remember, the machine knows if you're lying. First statement, Carvana will give you a real offer on your car. All online. False. True. Actually, you can sell your car in minutes. False. That's gotta be true again. Carvana will pick up your car from your door or you can drop it off at one of their car vending machines. Sounds too good to be true. So true. Finally caught on. Nice job. Honesty isn't just their policy, it's their entire model. Sell your car today too, Carvana. Pickup fees may apply. Hey, Ryan Reynolds here for Mint Mobile. Now I don't know if you've heard, but Mint's Premium Wireless is $15 a month. But I'd like to offer one other perk. We have no stores. That means no small talk. Crazy weather we're having. No, it's not. It's just weather. It is an introvert's dream. Give it a try@mintmobile.com Switch upfront payment $45 for three month plan. $15 per month equivalent required. New customer offer first three months only, then full price plan options available, taxes and fees extra. See mintmobile.com Charlie Kirk's assassin has been apprehended. And I think there are going to be a lot of questions about his political affiliation. His assassination is also proving to be a ghoulish Rorschach test that is bringing out weirdness on both sides of the aisle. The jobs report has come out and it is worse than expected. A rate reduction at this point seems all but inevitable. We're going to see what that means for the economy. And AI continues to threaten the stability of the job market.
- [01:28]
Co-host/Guest Analyst
We just got breaking news. This is reportedly, again, I'm taking it from New York Post, but I have a Twitter link that actually shows the kid, 22 year old Tyler Robinson, who this person's probably on the team, was a registered Republican in Utah. According to state records, they're kind of matching up showing that this is the dude that did it. So yeah, I hope that this kid's life is. I don't know if this is that person. I don't want to start digging through because I don't know where to go.
- [01:58]
Impact Theory Host (Tom Bilyeu)
But here's the thing. If he ends up being a Republican, yet another reason why being on a team is the wrong level of analysis. So it is the fact that we team up that we get into this degree of I'm so certain. So for instance, there's an account that I follow that's Republicans against Trump. And it's like they're just as teamed up as Republicans for Trump. So it's like, don't blanket be for or against anyone. Figure out what is the cause and effect of the situation, then take each thing as we go. So. But yeah, I mean, it'll be interesting to see how all of this plays out. But the very problem is being so certain in your rightness that you're willing to kill somebody that. That's the problem.
- [02:44]
Co-host/Guest Analyst
We could go. We could go to Kaizen's response. We haven't played that yet.
- [02:47]
Impact Theory Host (Tom Bilyeu)
Yeah, this is great. Let's just.
- [02:49]
Co-host/Guest Analyst
Let's jump to that.
- [02:49]
Kaizen (Guest Speaker)
And we applaud the executioner. But here's the thing. It's never just one bullet. The gun that is aimed at your enemy today gets aimed at you tomorrow. Suddenly, the cheers around you now become the silence around your own grave. This is why we must condemn everything that comes after. But even if it comes from our own side, yet we've become so arrogant, so certain we know the whole truth, that all the angels are in our tribe and all the demons are in theirs. We rage about media bias, yet worship our echo chamber. We are obese with knowledge, but starved for wisdom. The message that was sent by Charlie's assassin was clear. He was shot in the throat. While speaking freely with those who disagreed and allowing them to do the same. He lived by the mic.
- [03:43]
Impact Theory Host (Tom Bilyeu)
That's crazy. What do you mean that he got shot in the throat? Like, how do you.
- [03:49]
Guest Commentator
This is.
- [03:49]
Impact Theory Host (Tom Bilyeu)
We're in the matrix. Like, of all places for him to be shot in the throat like that. I don't know. It's just so wild to me.
- [03:59]
Kaizen (Guest Speaker)
And died by the sword. This wasn't just an assassination. Died to disagree and allowing them to do the same. He lived by the mic and died by the sword. This wasn't just an assassination.
- [04:13]
Impact Theory Host (Tom Bilyeu)
Live by the mic and died by the sword.
- [04:14]
Kaizen (Guest Speaker)
It was an attack on civilization.
- [04:16]
Impact Theory Host (Tom Bilyeu)
A big part of the problem.
- [04:17]
Kaizen (Guest Speaker)
Our nation is held together by a thread. And that thread is frag. The social fabric is tearing and we must unite to weave it anew. We need humility to see not just the speck in the opponent's eye, but the log in our own. Because this isn't about right or left. This is about good versus evil. And we're all on each side. So we all got a choice to make. We can choose to heal or an eye for an eye until we're all blind and cannot see.
- [04:52]
Impact Theory Host (Tom Bilyeu)
Yeah.
- [04:53]
Kaizen (Guest Speaker)
And then the next bullet may be aimed at you. Or it could be me.
- [05:00]
Co-host/Guest Analyst
Wow.
- [05:02]
Impact Theory Host (Tom Bilyeu)
Yeah. No. Kaizen is phenomenal. Okay. So it is going to be a really interesting debate. If so, one. If this guy's a registered Republican, and let's say actually somebody who really sees himself as on that team, was the trans rhetoric on the bullet meant to deflect from who he is? If not, and this is a person who is a registered Republican but is like, knee deep in trans ideology, then where do you put them on the political compass? That. That'll be a fascinating debate, but again, that's getting pulled down into the. Like, you've already passed the part that actually matters, which is somebody believing so. Believing so strongly that they are right that they're willing to kill. It's crazy. Yeah, it'll be interesting to see. Like, is this guy mentally ill or is he just that convinced of his rightness? There were people pulling footage of somebody that looked vaguely like him debating Charlie at a previous event. So it'll be interesting to see if that really is that guy.
- [06:14]
Co-host/Guest Analyst
Like, he lost a debate and then he came back to get him type thing.
- [06:17]
Impact Theory Host (Tom Bilyeu)
Yeah. So he showed up and he had. Again, I don't know that this is a same person, but people were saying, oh, it might be something like that, but he was speaking with a bullhorn into the mic, so. But yeah, I wouldn't say that in terms of winning a crowd over. He certainly did not. Charlie had the crowd on his side. I didn't see the full thing of it. I just saw a clip. So I won't say who made the better arguments, but if it was that guy, it'll be interesting because he certainly doesn't. He doesn't come across as being trans himself. Certainly there was nothing in his physical display that would lead you to believe that, but who knows? We'll see. All right, Drew, we are still in the after wash of the assassination of Charlie Kirk. It still is sitting on me pretty heavily. I was not at all surprised to see that my timeline is still just wall to wall. Charlie Kirk. This one really does feel different. It's been interesting to see people talk about that little aspect of this. Like, why does this one feel so differently? I think people are grappling with something that I think you get close to when you realize that this wasn't a politician. This was a guy that talked for a living. And so when the guy that talks for a living gets killed in, like, the most symbolic way, getting shot in the throat while talking about a political position that people don't agree with, it's just so rich in symbolism that he was somebody that was specifically aiming his message at young people, which, of course, is exactly where you want to aim a message, all of that. And that it was captured on camera so close up, it's this one. I don't think this one's going to go away. And so people are going to use this to advance what they already believe. That's the thing that scares me. So I've seen everything from the direct, like, Charlie Kirk was standing up for free speech and American values, and so that's what was assassinated. I've seen the chance, which I assume will play a clip of later, where white men fight back. And I was just like, wait, what does this have to do with being white? So, everybody, this is a Rorschach test. You see in this what you want to see. And those kind of things get very dangerous. Because now everybody believes that they have, like, the perfect thing that explains why their side is right, which is the very problem that we're dealing with right now. Everybody's convinced they're right.
- [08:52]
Co-host/Guest Analyst
Yeah. White House reporter Elena Treen from CNN just announced that Trump said on Fox and Friends that Charlie Kirk's assassin is in custody. Quoted directly from Trump. I think with a high degree of certainty, we have him in custody. So if this is cash, Patel said that last yesterday, it came out with. He had some fire, had to deal with it when he had ended up having to release that hostage, that suspect. So if this is the person that done it, if they actually captured him, do you think that this will be a path to healing or is kind of definitely. Oh, cat's already out the bag.
- [09:24]
Impact Theory Host (Tom Bilyeu)
Yeah, this. So this is a symptom. This is not the cause. People have been waiting for that spark. And the question always when something like this happens and you have a spark that then catches fire, everybody focuses on the spark. But the reality is you should be looking at the kindling that's been laid down for God knows how long. We've been pulling at each other like crazy. We've had political assassinations in recent memory that didn't catch on the way that this one did in terms of the public consciousness, which is always fascinating when you look back, even at things like the civil rights movement, Rosa Parks, you know what I mean? Like, there was a hundred other things, a thousand other things that were as bad, possibly worse, but they aren't the one that, like, really sparks it. Sometimes because of the symbolism, sometimes because of the coverage, sometimes because of who will rally around them. So it's interesting to see the way that Charlie has become that thing that's going to push this forward. But the reality is there's been something brewing under the surface for a very long time that's now going to rage. The only question is how far there is no healing this. When I think about the stance that I have, which is, hey, we still have to find a way back to the middle. We still have to find a way to give people a narrative that they can hold on to that gives them the words to self soothe. I do sometimes feel like the guy on the beach as the tsunami rolls in. I just don't know if it's stoppable. And so Ray Dalio was recently on Diary of a CEO and he asked him, are you optimistic about America's future? And Ray just goes, no. And Ray is looking at historical patterns for reasons of historical patterns. I feel like the person on the beach with the tsunami rolling in calling for everybody to find their way back to the middle. I just don't know if it's possible. It is. The very thing that I'm asking for that I know would be good for us is the very thing that I think defies the way the human mind actually works. Humans on an individual level are fine, but once you start getting into crowds, once cultural energy is rippling, I don't know that it's possible to stop without enough pain. So we'll see.
- [11:44]
Co-host/Guest Analyst
Yeah, I'm seeing a lot of, like, comparisons about how this is hitting different communities. It's. There's this kind of sports commentator by Miami Jones on ESPN who says all the time there's really two Americas. And depending on where your Twitter feed lies in the algorithm, there is definitely two stark reactions. And it's. It's interesting to me how some people have evangelized Charlie Kirk, even comparing this to the slaying of mlk. Other people are saying this is their George. This is white people's George Floyd moment. Because it's like a public execution of somebody that looks like them over something that they. That was unjust.
- [12:22]
Impact Theory Host (Tom Bilyeu)
And.
- [12:22]
Co-host/Guest Analyst
And now this is rallying it. I see the chance on the other side. I see Charlie Kirk being a symbol for American values and American symbolism. He got a Medal of Honor, so. Or Medal of Freedom. So there's a lot of different reactions going across the spectrum. Is that. I know we talked about populism enough, and I don't want that to be kind of the buzzword that kind of bails us out. But to see such a stark point. This couldn't have just been over the killing. This is just the exposure of it. Like that bullet kind of lifted up the rock where all the ants kind of climbed and went away. But those divisions didn't get sewn. Once that gun was shot. It got sown. Decades, months, years, whatever time frame ago, it seems like, because this, how stark the difference is, is just baffling to me. So I'm still processing it live, like even right now, like live on camera. I'm still processing, but it's, it's just, it's fascinating to me.
- [13:17]
Impact Theory Host (Tom Bilyeu)
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- [15:24]
Co-host/Guest Analyst
This is UT Austin.
- [15:26]
Impact Theory Host (Tom Bilyeu)
Charlie Kirk got shot and killed. How do you feel? Happy. Goodbye. Wow, did you see that? Charlie Kirk just got shot and killed. That's good. Wow, that's Good. That's good that people are getting shot just off a political view.
- [15:40]
Right-wing Commentator (possibly Matt Walsh or similar)
Good.
- [15:40]
Impact Theory Host (Tom Bilyeu)
That people are dying in America. Did you see this? Okay, so pause it for a second. Some of this is youth like you're going to find. I am so glad that when I was this age that there were no cameras in my face because I would have said my share of unhinged stuff. The brain doesn't even stop developing until you're 25. You certainly, for the most part, some people will have. But the vast majority of people will not have thought through their views well. They won't have a map of reality where it's all interconnected and so they'll have individual thoughts that you can topple or even show that they have self contradictory beliefs. So I have deep empathy from that perspective. A lot of these guys are caught up in narratives. We're all caught up in narratives. But it is very troubling to me to see how pervasive and how extreme this narrative is.
- [16:33]
Co-host/Guest Analyst
What the good narrative.
- [16:35]
Impact Theory Host (Tom Bilyeu)
No, no, no. On this side where. Oh, yeah, good. That he's dead.
- [16:38]
Co-host/Guest Analyst
Oh, good. That he's dead.
- [16:39]
Impact Theory Host (Tom Bilyeu)
Yeah, that it would. It should be extremely difficult to find people that will be that glib about somebody's assassination. And we're in a moment now where people are all too ready to be glib about the fact that he died. But anyway, keep going because it gets worse as this goes. Kara got shot and killed today. Yes, I did. How do you feel about that? I don't really have any feelings about it. Who are you? Charlie Kerrick got shot and killed today. We're just getting people's opinions. How do you feel about that.
- [17:15]
Guest Commentator
Girl?
- [17:15]
Impact Theory Host (Tom Bilyeu)
Someone had to do it. That's how I feel at this point in time. But, you know, I appreciate your honesty. I truly do. So you said someone had to do it. Yes. Try not to get all pulled up into that. But he was a misogynist. He was a disgusting person with disgusting beliefs. So if you had a magical wand, a magical button that you could press and keep him from being assassinated, would you press that? No. I think things happen for a purpose. And if that's how his life was ended, then that's how it was ended. So, yeah, okay, so I see some of the comments in the chat saying, hey, you know, these are like fringe beliefs. The very thing that I'm trying to get people to understand is it should be hard to find somebody that has fringe beliefs. You should not just be able to walk around campus over a. I mean, judging by the shadows, this is all in a pretty tight time period. Call it over a couple of hours in one location. You shouldn't be able to find five or six people that have that. What I will call just completely unhinged response to someone being assassinated. Whether you're on your team or not. The thing that I'm trying to get across to people is we are on tribes, we are on teams. Being on a team has a deranging effect to the way that people think through a problem. So the very thing that I want to remind myself in my own life, the thing that I want to put out into the world, the thing that I hope that people like, if I got killed, I would want people to say, he was always trying to get people to think from first principles. He was always trying to get people to map their values and then say, hey, here are the ways that I think by having this value system, it's actually going to take me to where my goals are. And what you're seeing here are people that they're in tribal thinking and their team has a set of beliefs that just make it easy for them to have such a glib response to something so tragic. And when your team's narrative gives you a take that allows you to look into somebody being assassinated and say, yeah, cool, that's good, yeah, no, I wouldn't undo that. Like, this all just happens for a reason. That's the very thing that I'm worried about. So it isn't even the message from these young kids. It is that we have these pat messages that are pulling away from each other as fast as possible. That is the problem. So clowning on these kids for having a dumb belief, whatever, like that certainly isn't what I'm advocating for. If I saw any of these people, I would not be yelling at them and saying, you're so unhinged. The thing that I'm trying to talk people back from is don't allow yourself to slip into a narrative stream where you're not thinking about, okay, hold on a second, where am I trying to get to? Because if where you want to get to is my team is right, the other team is wrong, we're going to have to clear out. Like, girl, somebody had to do it. That's somebody who's like, look, this, the, the opposing team is so dangerous, we just have to get rid of them. And so it's actually good news when somebody like that's to going gets taken out. You're not taking on the knock on effect. Even if you're just like, well, it Was good that one person did it so the rest will shut up. It's like so hold on a second. You want to use violence to eliminate free speech because you can't get free speech removed. You want to eliminate free speech, full stop. You don't think that that has knock on effects that are going to be exceedingly dangerous for you. So that's where I am very unnerved. Ray Dalio is banging a drum and saying economic things are creating a hatred within our own country. This is a pattern that repeats in history. Watch what's going to happen. You get north of 130% debt to GDP and you break out into civil war. It's just a loop. And so it's like not being able to interrupt it, not being able to get people to see what's happening. That's the thing that scares me the most. Show the flip side. We'll show the joker thing in a second. I just don't want people to get lost in the. Oh, the left is a bunch of lunatics. And that's what just happened. We're witnessing the left being crazy. We saw the last political assassinations, at least that I'm aware of here in the US was what happened in Minnesota. That's as far as I know. That was a Trump supporter.
- [21:33]
Co-host/Guest Analyst
Yeah.
- [21:33]
Impact Theory Host (Tom Bilyeu)
Killing multiple people. Well, killing one, his spouse and then. Or her husband.
- [21:39]
Co-host/Guest Analyst
Yeah.
- [21:40]
Impact Theory Host (Tom Bilyeu)
And then trying to kill another and their spouse. So it's like. So that one didn't catch, I think because people just didn't know them in the way that they know Charlie Kirk. But that's the other side being just as unhinged. So people getting into a narrative stream that this is all about the left being crazy would be a mistake. So anyway.
- [22:06]
Co-host/Guest Analyst
I was going here, this is where I was going with the.
- [22:08]
Impact Theory Host (Tom Bilyeu)
Matt Walsh will be a perfectly good stand in for the right.
- [22:11]
Co-host/Guest Analyst
Gabby.
- [22:13]
Right-wing Commentator (possibly Matt Walsh or similar)
For hours I, I've seen some in the media, some of the very same people who intentionally stoked murderous hatred against people like Charlie Kirk and Charlie Kirk specifically now saying that we need to turn down the temperature and start having conversations. Well, Charlie tried to have conversations with you on the left. And you killed him for it.
- [22:35]
Impact Theory Host (Tom Bilyeu)
And you killed him for it. So this is where this all starts to break really bad. There was a guy that killed him for it. Presumably. Technically, we don't know who actually did it, but all signs point to. First of all, the thought of a woman being a sniper killing political opponents just strikes me as the image released.
- [22:57]
Co-host/Guest Analyst
Seemed like it was a white male.
- [22:58]
Impact Theory Host (Tom Bilyeu)
Yeah. While not impossible Certainly seems very unlikely. So. But saying that you did it your side, you guys bad guys, that is the problem. Like, that's the very thing that we have to back off of, that is the mindset that that person was in. Now, whether we end up finding out that this is a punchline about a trans activist, which there was something written on the bullet that would lead people to believe that that is the case, we'll see fullness of time, let that come out. But no matter what, that person was on a team, in their head believed. I see things clearly. So much so that I should be allowed to be judged during Executioner. It's really wild. And so now I don't think I disagree with Destiny, who says this is a blatant call for violence. I wouldn't go that far. But he is revealing a stance that is certainly like very much. You guys are wrong. You have. You are a group, you are a monolith. You have done bad thing. I am on the right side of history. I am seeing this clearly. And so now you've pushed me in a position where we're gonna have to fight back. He does not ever say that we're gonna have to fight back violently, but fight. All right.
- [24:20]
Right-wing Commentator (possibly Matt Walsh or similar)
Let him finish us in our churches. You tried to kill our President. You killed one of our greatest advocates in Charlie Kirk. You have been openly cheering for and celebrating and encouraging and committing political violence for years. Antifa blm. Well funded, highly orchestrated, widespread movements based in and fueled by violence. You made a hero out of Luigi Mangione and you celebrate Charlie's death even now it's too late to turn the temperature down. This is not a time to hold hands. It's a time for justice. This is a time for good to fight back against evil. It is time for the righteous to prevail for the sake of our country and for our families and our children and for Charlie.
- [25:06]
Impact Theory Host (Tom Bilyeu)
The thing that I take away from there isn't that I think his message is unhinged or anything like that. It is time for justice. It is time for the righteous to prevail. Now, will we agree on who the righteous are? Probably not. Will we agree on what justice is? Maybe, maybe not. I don't know. But the words he's using bother me. Only in as much as it makes it clear that he's on a team and he is lumping everybody. Like we don't even know who killed Charlie yet. So for him to assume up this is just the left and you guys are all one big basket of things. You're all wrong. Team thinking does not lead anywhere good. So that's what I worry about. So, yeah, I hope people do not break along the lines of, there are a good group and there is a bad group, and we are now at war with each other. That is not how I think people should be looking at this. This is how do we get to the fundamental values? How do we get to the structure of structurally what is happening that's making this a problem? And I do admittedly feel very weird reminding everybody this is all coming from economic problems, because that feels so weird in a time where people are emotional. Like, if I were at Charlie's funeral and they asked me to speak, I'm not going to mention the economy, but I'm doing that out of social obligation, if that makes sense. You just know that's the wrong thing to talk about.
- [26:38]
Co-host/Guest Analyst
Wrong place, wrong time.
- [26:39]
Impact Theory Host (Tom Bilyeu)
But it is the truth. And so this is where we start detaching ourselves from what's really happening. What are the actual underlying causes? And we go to what sounds right. How do we do the rallying cry? Like, if I had to lead people into battle, I wouldn't be like, now remember as we go down to fight that this all comes from inflation. Like, you wouldn't do that. So I get how people are going to. They're going to feel what he feels. They're going to speak in an evocative way, because it feels so good to speak in that way, to get people rallied up. And then all hope is lost, because now we're totally detached from reality. We're at the level of what I call the T. It's pure emotion. We're fighting about something that's completely abstracted from what's really going on. But it is the thing that feels good. It is the narrative that is simple enough to spread, to get everybody to drink it up and then get their blood boiling. And then now we can have the real fight that people want to have, but it will be completely nonproductive. And at the end of that fight, with more bloodshed, all that people will have is fatigue. And if people could understand that the way that wars end is you kill somebody so much and they kill you so much that eventually maybe one of you wins and the other side just can't continue to fight. But by the end of it, everybody goes, whoa, this is way more horrible than I ever could have imagined. And I don't ever want to go through that again. Nobody goes, that was dope. We had a great time. It's. It is just Horror from top to bottom, but people never see it until they've been through it.
- [28:24]
Co-host/Guest Analyst
Yeah, I want to bring up the joker thing because I feel like this is the mentality that a lot of people are perpetrating that this is how we got to this point.
- [28:33]
Impact Theory Host (Tom Bilyeu)
Before you play that, let me just set this up. So the narrative that we're all going to have to see through in the coming weeks is the left is unhinged. No, the right is unhinged. And both sides are going to be doing that. They're missing. The meta problem of a populist moment is about teams. So we're dividing into us versus them, oversimplifying categories. So this is an awesome video. If you're on the right, you're going to look at this and be like, yo, 100%. But you can make the same video showing people from the right saying a bunch of unhinged shit when you miss that part. Because if you're on the right, this is going to feel true. If you flip it and show people on the right saying all the bad things and you're on the left, it's going to feel true. And so now both of them are going to have their supercuts. This is the thing that drives me crazy about Destiny, is he's very good at reminding people the right says unhinged shit, but he glosses over the unhinged shit that the left says. I'm just like, what are you doing? Like, he's very smart. He knows it's there. So I don't know. That's when it always feels like Destiny steps into spinning a narrative. So the very thing that we must do to not end up somewhere full of blood is recognize.
- [30:01]
Co-host/Guest Analyst
Ah.
- [30:01]
Impact Theory Host (Tom Bilyeu)
Everybody's being pushed onto a team. The act of being pushed onto a team is the problem. All right, so anyway, here's a team video for you. Donald Trump and the maga.
- [30:12]
Right-wing Commentator (possibly Matt Walsh or similar)
Republicans represent an extremism that threatens the.
- [30:17]
Impact Theory Host (Tom Bilyeu)
Very foundations of our republic. Are they a threat to democracy? Yes. Are they going to take our rights away? Yes. Are they going to put people's lives in danger? Yes. Are they going to endanger the planet by not giving them climate change?
- [30:28]
Co-host/Guest Analyst
Yes.
- [30:28]
Impact Theory Host (Tom Bilyeu)
People need to start taking to the streets. This is a dictator. I just don't even know why there aren't uprisings all over the country. And maybe there will be.
- [30:37]
Guest Commentator
She's a genuine danger to American security.
- [30:41]
Co-host/Guest Analyst
They're still going to have to go.
- [30:42]
Impact Theory Host (Tom Bilyeu)
Out and put a bullet in Donald Trump. Even the way he's said that, he sounds like an actor like, that's wild.
- [30:48]
Co-host/Guest Analyst
Biden never sounded that menacing ever. In all four years, 30 years he'd been in the White House or on the Senate floor never sounded that menacing until this video. Hey, there needs to be unrest in.
- [30:59]
Impact Theory Host (Tom Bilyeu)
The streets for as long as there's unrest in our lives. Have a consistent narrative about how dangerous Trump is. President Biden has been clear eyed about the threat that the former president represents to our Democrats. I will say you. It is unwise to constantly say the other team is a danger, they're a danger, they're a threat. They're like Nazis, all that stuff. The only thing I can see people on the left is like, well, they're not calling for violence. If you say enough times that the other team is like the worst perpetrators of crimes in terms of what we teach young people to be aware of. And all of that over and over and over and over. Like, eventually people are going to get the message and be like, oh, these are the. Like, this is true evil. And I always said I was going to be the person that hid Anne Frank in my attic. This is my shot. Now, obviously it is a very small number of people that will actually take action on it, but you are creating that milieu and it is a terrible idea. It's a terrible idea on the left, it's a terrible idea on the right, but it does happen.
- [32:10]
Co-host/Guest Analyst
Yeah, I think we landed a plane on that video. I don't think we need to continue to perpetrate it. Is this one of those situations where we're just going to have to let it play out?
- [32:21]
Impact Theory Host (Tom Bilyeu)
Because is there another option? Because I will scream into a camera as much as I possibly can, explaining to people, hey, like, you're getting sucked into a narrative. Hey, like, don't be a tribal thinker. Hey, by the way, cause and effect is all that matters. I will try. I will do everything I can. I will try to convince people that the world operates on a set of rules. Those rules are knowable. Once you understand the rules, you can understand how people are trying to manipulate you and therefore can eject out of the manipulation. It is not emotionally evocative. That's the problem. I have long lamented that saying what is true calmly and collectedly does not get people to pay attention. Like, you need the theatrics of it all. And I never used to break a sweat while filming. Now I do because I realize, like, I've got to deliver it in a way that cuts through the noise. And so I'm over here like, ah, freaking out and still trying to say a very metered, very middle of the road thing, but in a way that, that feels emotionally evocative, but man like, it just isn't it. It is out of alignment with somebody whose blood is already boiling. If their blood is already boiling, the odds that you can get them to calm down until they get to do their proper freak out is very, very low. We're hitting pause for a moment, but there's plenty more ahead so don't go anywhere. Thanks for sticking around. Let's get right back into the action. Here's Charlie talking about gun violence. You need to be very clear that you're not going to get gun deaths to zero. It will not happen. You can significantly reduce them through having more fathers in the home by having more armed guards in front of schools. We should have an honest and clear reductionist view of gun violence, but we should not have a utopian one. You will never live in a society when you have an armed citizenry and you won't have a single gun death. That is nonsense.
- [34:29]
Right-wing Commentator (possibly Matt Walsh or similar)
It's dribble.
- [34:31]
Impact Theory Host (Tom Bilyeu)
Yeah, this, this whole argument is, I don't know, this is a little bit nonsensical. I don't know that we're ever going to go anywhere with the should we have guns, should we not have guns Debate. But the thing that I think people are really talking about with this is, oh, what an own goal. Like, oh, what a fool. Like he wasn't trying to stop guns and he got killed by a gun. Like, oh, I bet wishes he had never said that now. No, he's not going to say that. What he, like if you could magically speak to him beyond the grave, he's going to say something like, we, you have, this is what I think he would say. The left is out of their minds and they used guns to silence a person who was non violent, who was debating. They didn't have any good ideas. They couldn't meet the, the challenge of the debate. And because their ideas are so bad that there's no way they can defend them, they had to resort to violence. Not what the writers of the Constitution intended with the second Amendment, blah, blah, blah. So this does not feel like Charlie like scoring an own goal on himself. From where I'm sitting and you're not going to see anybody on the right be like, yo, it's so true.
- [35:46]
Co-host/Guest Analyst
Yeah, I don't think it's an own goal. I think it's, I'm going to paint this picture right. Hypothetically speaking, let's just play, let's just connect some dots and see if it's emotion or if it makes sense. Dot number one, Charlie Kirk says that it's necessary. Certain people will have to die in order to maintain the second amendment.
- [36:01]
Impact Theory Host (Tom Bilyeu)
Yep.
- [36:01]
Co-host/Guest Analyst
We got to be okay with people getting killed with guns.
- [36:03]
Impact Theory Host (Tom Bilyeu)
Yep.
- [36:04]
Co-host/Guest Analyst
Dot number two, Charlie Kirk gets killed. Charlie Gert gets quoted that empathy is a made up concept. He doesn't believe in empathy for people. We need to talk about statistics, we need to talk about facts.
- [36:15]
Impact Theory Host (Tom Bilyeu)
I need to see that.
- [36:17]
Co-host/Guest Analyst
Yeah, I can bring up that clip. But hypothetically speaking, again, I'm just connected dots. Let's say that I can pull up a clip in two seconds. That he says that quote for quote, he gets murdered in a white campus by a professional sniper. It seems like 200 yards away. There were armed security standing right behind him. So to his point, security, I don't know about the father, the fatherhood of the father, status of the killer, but let's assume he had a father. Maybe he didn't have a father. Okay, cool. And then now he passes. And everybody's expecting empathy, they're expecting sympathy. And when other people don't have that sympathy, they're now getting villainized. So I think to say this is a sad tragedy. It's true, it is a sad tragedy. But when people are connecting those dots of. He was advocating that it's okay that some people die because of gun deaths. He got killed on a white campus. His last words were gun violence. His last words were gang violence. And he was killed by a white shooter. And so like as you're kind of putting all these together and then now it's like he died. He, he was always advocating for the right thing. Now you're kind of saying like, well, wait, two kids died on the day he died. And we don't even talk about those two kids. Three kids died, or there was three people injured, shot. I don't know what their status is now, the next day because of it. Like, there was two guns, there was two mass shootings. He got shot on the same day of a mass shooting. Like, the irony is stacking on top, on top, on top, on top of. So when there's certain people that when you say like, hey, Charlie Kirk just died and people are like, that doesn't make them radical left, murderous. And then to bring it back to the Matt Walsh thing, it's not antifa or BLM that are driving these things. Like, so it, I'm putting all these things on the table to just say that, yes, no parent should, no Kid should have to live like no parent should. No kid should outlive their parent or no parents outlive their kid, whatever the saying is.
- [38:07]
Impact Theory Host (Tom Bilyeu)
That's correct.
- [38:08]
Co-host/Guest Analyst
So the fact that like his three year old daughter and his wife had to see blood gushing from the neck on the front row, deplorable, horrible, despicable. All the right things, every left, every left leader from AOC to Obama to Hillary to everybody that says we condemn the violence, it's terrible, it's horrible. All those things. So as I'm linking chain all these things and then you still get on, you still hear Donald Trump saying it's the radical leftist. This is crazy. You still hear Matt Walsh saying we need to fight evil with evil. You're hearing all these people calling for violence or fighting back. We have the chance of the white people getting. White men must fight back. Like fight back against who? Where, where are these coming from? Like this is the, this is the type of energy that is coming from different sides that we're not talking about. So I'm not saying that it's a own on Charlie Kirk, but when MLK died they quoted the I have a dream speech when Charlie Kirk was passed. I don't know if we're going to quote the last five things he said before he passed.
- [39:07]
Impact Theory Host (Tom Bilyeu)
And I think that, well, they're already doing that. So you, they're already quoting the wonderful things that he said and the right is 100% eulogizing him in a whitewashed way that's going to cover up some of the more controversial things that he said. So I don't know that I track that argument. But you've set a buffet of things before us. So buffet. Let's take one dish at a time.
- [39:31]
Co-host/Guest Analyst
Okay?
- [39:32]
Impact Theory Host (Tom Bilyeu)
So dish number one, a guy who says not even like, as far as I know, this is not like Charlie Kirk's major plank, but has clearly talked about it before where he said we're never going to get gun violence to zero, which seems like a very straightforward statement of fact. We live in a world where we have a whole lot of guns. We have a constitutional mandate's not the right word. It's enshrined in the Constitution that we have a right to bear arms. So it's like, well that, that, that is what it is. So people are going to use this as a, a moment to talk about that. We should be rescinding that or we should be putting like really strict controls on it. You know, whatever their takeaway is going to be. So if people want to Use anytime that there's gun violence as a impetus to. Let's have the conversation. Let's do something sensible, fair. But what I've seen with this is people using it to mock Charlie, to laugh, to say, see, like, all right, fucking idiot. Like, you got what you deserved. Which you'll see plenty of people saying exactly that. Either because of his stance on abortion, which we have a clip on where a woman's like, I don't care that he died. He had a different view than I do on abortion, so fuck him. Or because it's, well, you seem perfectly willing to have a lot of guns, so fuck you. Like, you should get killed with one. It's like. Like that. The level of absurdity with that is crazy. So just because he believes that we have a right to bear arms does not mean that he's saying, or even that inevitably there's going to be a certain number of people killed by it. That does not mean that he deserves to be killed. So it's like, we've got to separate those. I'm not saying you're saying that, but I'm saying people are saying that. I have seen them say that nobody.
- [41:22]
Co-host/Guest Analyst
Deserves to be shot.
- [41:24]
Impact Theory Host (Tom Bilyeu)
Correct. So now it's like, okay, well, if we can separate that out and if we can say, yeah, have the debate about gun control, all of that, but the laughing at Charlie because he said that there is inevitably going to be a certain number of people that die. If that becomes, like, the thing that we're talking about here. That's where I'm like, this is people getting sucked into the tea of it all. Instead of the real underlying issue, which just to remind everybody is once you make people feel economically insecure, they get into their emotions once they're in their emotions because they are afraid. They go onto teams. Once they are on teams, they start voting for people that are essentially willing to fight against the other side to protect their way of life. That's the problem. Everything else is window dressing. So have the debate about whether we want to remove the Second Amendment. I mean, that's exactly what a democracy is about if people are here for the Second Amendment. So, but like, if Charlie Kirk had said, listen, I don't think we should get rid of cars. There's always going to be a certain number of car deaths and then he dies in a car accident, would we say that he was a moron for saying that there should be cars? Like, that just seems like a strange. It is a strange argument. That is somebody who's in an emotional place and they want to dunk on somebody, which, hey, fine. On that I will say, Charlie, you live by the sword, you die by the sword. In the sense that he liked to dunk on people and so cool. You die, people are going to dunk on you for things. That just is what it is. But I just don't want to see people get lost in the surface level debate. Get down to the substantive part, both on gun violence and how we want to handle that moving forward. What do we think is the right way to do it? And on the fact that we are being pulled onto these teams with oversimplified rhetoric. And I think that's where we're lost.
- [43:18]
Co-host/Guest Analyst
Do you think people are entitled to empathy?
- [43:22]
Impact Theory Host (Tom Bilyeu)
Do I think people are entitled to empathy? I think it is unwise to approach the world from a place of entitlement. But your life will be so much better if you give empathy. If you find your way to empathizing with the people that you disagree with the most, your life will be so much better. Empathy is a connective. Like it triggers a neurochemical cascade that makes you feel loved, love and connection for your fellow man. And that is a very good place to be. So I don't like to use the word entitled, but I think the empathy is insanely powerful. Start from there. Next. Super chat from Mr. G. Chase Hughes just released a video walking through how division is being propagated amongst all of us. We are all being played with tribalism. Get to the middle and stop claiming his side. Model your values instead of for them. Well, that sounds perfect to me. So yeah, I agree. Aggressively. Now, I don't know who Chase Hughes is, but that certainly sounds like my pick.
- [44:29]
Co-host/Guest Analyst
Yeah.
- [44:30]
Impact Theory Host (Tom Bilyeu)
Oh, right, right.
- [44:31]
Co-host/Guest Analyst
Okay, I got a clip on it.
- [44:33]
Impact Theory Host (Tom Bilyeu)
If I met him or not.
- [44:33]
Guest Commentator
But the minute that your ideas require violence to enforce or spread, they are already completely bankrupt. Every tyrant, every failed ideology, every social collapse starts the exact same way. The debate dies. Then violence takes the place of debate. And you can't argue with a gun. You can only kill with it. And when killing is the substitute for a conversation, society as a whole starts falling off a cliff. We all have been sold the biggest con of our entire life and this is that the problem is left versus right or Republicans versus Democrats.
- [45:15]
Impact Theory Host (Tom Bilyeu)
And yeah, I agree with all this. It certainly sounds fireworks show that they.
- [45:19]
Guest Commentator
Want us screaming about while they're doing something else. This is a magician's trick and I'm about to really show you what Charlie, God rest his soul, has kind of exposed here. If you turned on cable news today, maybe you scroll social media. What are you going to see? The absolute friend. They're going to show you the loudest, dumbest, most cartoonish people from the other side blasted in your face 24. 7. You're not being shown your neighbor or your co worker or the mom next door who votes differently. You're being shown a bunch of professional lunatics.
- [45:56]
Impact Theory Host (Tom Bilyeu)
I think he's wrong about that. So I think people want this to be a little more fringe than it is. So Chase and I aggressively agree on the fact that we are being pulled onto tribes. But to call it a magician's trick is probably a little misleading. It is the way that your brain is wired. We are hardwired to do this, and that has been triggered via the economic uncertainty. And so this goes back to the spark versus the kindling. The kindling has been being laid down since, basically 1971. We go off the gold standard, we start inflating the money supply like mad. It starts killing the American dream and a whole host of other policies. Obviously, when I talk about that, I'm oversimplifying something, but that starts laying down all this kindling. And now, as we get into the deeper and deeper innings of people feeling economically insecure, they are tribing up because the anger gives them the certainty. So as a psa, I will remind everybody that they did a study where they put electrodes in people's brains and they poked around on the different emotions. So love, lust, joy, and anger. And it was more than that, but you get the idea. And they then asked the people, hey, of all the emotions that I just triggered in you, which one do you want me to trigger again? And it was anger.
- [47:14]
Co-host/Guest Analyst
Wow.
- [47:15]
Impact Theory Host (Tom Bilyeu)
So I know that shocks people, but there is something so intoxicating about the moral certainty that comes with being angry. When you're angry, you know you're right, you know what to do, you know how to move forward. It is a sense of superiority, authority, that the thing you have been aggrieved so much that you have a right to, like, go after that person. And that level of certainty feels so good. And so what's promised to people in a populist moment is certainty. It is hyper oversimplified. It is aggressive in nature, it is punitive in nature. And all of that feels awesome. I am the good guy. They are the bad guy. I have every right to go after them, to pursue them. And if you can get people to feel like that, oh, my God, like, they love it the most. This is why people use fear and anger, fear is, I must solve this problem. I must learn what is causing this, what is going on. So people pay attention. Anger is, ah, I know what's wrong and now I'm fucking going after it. So yeah, beware. But this is not like a big bamboozle that's being played by politicians. This is coming from the economic uncertainty that puts people into their emotions because they are afraid. And then they team up to get that certainty that they crave so much. That's the loop. But it's nature that played that trick on you.
- [48:40]
Co-host/Guest Analyst
Taking it now to the economy since we've been talking about it. The jobs report came in. So this is the weekly estimate of unemployment benefits going out. Economists forecasted 253,000, but claims jumped up to 263. This is the largest jump in seven years, I want to say, or seven months. Excuse me, I don't want to say that this is damning and this means the economy is on fire. But add that to the 900, 900,000 revision. Add that to the S and P being negative. If you take out six companies and Oracle has to be a seventh. Now after their crazy day yesterday, $83 billion in one day, the single biggest gain, bro, he made $83 billion and then told his son, go buy HBO. We're going to talk about that next. Crazy, crazy. But with the economy seeming like it's on its last legs, is this job report kind of move the needle for you?
- [49:34]
Impact Theory Host (Tom Bilyeu)
So it certainly hasn't changed my vision of what the economy is. I have been saying for quite some time that I think that the economy is really in trouble. You want to talk about things I hate being right about? I hate being right about the fact that I've been saying for a while that we're going to break violent in America. And hey, here we are, breaking violent in America. Look at that. And how many people said the times overreacting, like, oh my God, like he's just doing this for drama. No, when you look at the patterns of history, things start to make a lot of sense. When you are grounded in. You're having a biological experience. There are knowable things about the physics of the way human mind works. There's knowable things about the physics of economies. It's like you're never going to get it 100% right, but damn, you can be directionally correct. And I'm telling you from a directional correctness, the economy is in trouble. How do I know? Because any economy with this debt to GDP ratio is in a bad place. And despite the fact that some people will try to tell you it's a nothing, but it is a one way street to death and despair from an economy standpoint. So you either back out of that debt to GDP problem or you accept that over some unfortunately unknown period of time, 5 years, 50 years, 100 years, I don't know. But over some period of time that unfortunately isn't hundreds of years, you're going to implode. That's not a maybe. This is mathematical certainty. It's mathematical certainty. And humans are extraordinarily bad at looking at something where the math is simply the following. If you are in a submarine and you are at the bottom of the Marianas Trench and you only have four hours of oxygen and the human body can only go whatever, the record is 17 minutes, 21 minutes without oxygen. And that's for somebody who's hyper trained. When you get to four and a half hours, everyone's dead. Like that's the physics of the situation. The economy is the same. You cannot just keep stacking debt. Why? Because to pay that debt off, you will have to print money. When you print money, you devalue your currency. When you hit a certain point of devaluing your currency, nobody will invest in you anymore. When you can't get investments anymore, you stop growing. Those are the physics of money. People want to somehow believe that we are immune to the physics of money. We are not. I will remind everybody, and I know I say this guy's name a lot, but Ray Dalio built the largest hedge fund in the world simply by recognizing better than anybody else exactly where a given country was at any one time in the big debt cycle. So nothing about this jobs report changes my mind about where the economy is. Because the economy is moving through the six phases of the debt cycle. This is inevitable. So it merely makes it apparent that we are going to have to lower rates, that the Fed will no longer have a cover story to not lower rates. So they are going to lower rates. And the problem is, as Lynn Alden so aptly pointed out, it won't solve the problem because you're now in fiscal dominance. As a reminder, fiscal dominance simply means government spending. I wish people weren't so weird about words. Because fiscal has sort of loosely come to mean monetary policy. That's not the definition of the word. Fiscal means government spending. So when somebody says fiscal dominance, they just mean that the government is spending so much money that that's all that matters. Literally, that's all that matters. So they can try to lower the interest rate all they want, it's not going to matter because the economy is already in a tremendous amount of trouble. And as they lower it, that's going to cause inflation. And if they try to raise the rate, it's not going to matter because the government is not going to stop deficit spending. And so now you start driving. The interest rate's so high for the government that it just becomes untenable. So they can't do that either. And so that's called having no more tools. And so the only thing that is left is a beautiful deleveraging. But nobody will do that because it asks everybody to suffer pain. So instead what people will do is whatever gets them elected, which is guess what? Promise free shit. And what's the only thing that's a terrible fucking idea? Promising free shit.
- [53:33]
Co-host/Guest Analyst
And so here we are, the promise of free shit. Is a Fed rate going to save us?
- [53:40]
Impact Theory Host (Tom Bilyeu)
No, the Fed rate can't save you.
- [53:43]
Co-host/Guest Analyst
So, like, there's no. I understand what AI is a magic is the silver bullet. But until we figure AI isn't the.
- [53:48]
Impact Theory Host (Tom Bilyeu)
Silver bullet, and here's the very dark news, I don't think AI is going to. Let's say that AI, it's the miracle cure of productivity. Me, that won't help you because it will be at the expense of people not having jobs.
- [54:04]
Co-host/Guest Analyst
Yeah.
- [54:05]
Impact Theory Host (Tom Bilyeu)
So now let's say even that you're able to get a ton of money right now your economy is under 4. Sorry, under $5 trillion. The amount that it would take to give everyone, I think like $16,000, which is poverty wages, is $5 trillion. Now if the bots can grow the economy faster than that, let's say that we get to 6 or $7 trillion, what are you gonna give people? Like $18,000? Like, it's still like people do not understand the math. Doesn't math? Yeah, so. And not only that, let's say that you gave everybody that amount of money and it was enough to keep everybody eating. People will still mouse utopia and they will freak out. So we have a real problem to face, which is we have an upcoming problem and not enough people are thinking about it. So we haven't yet come up with the solutions that we need to come up with. The only solution that I have come up with is I need everybody to focus on themselves and those that they love. And I hope that that means that we save society that way. And this comes back to, hey, Jesus, thanks for reminding us. Everybody has a spark of divinity, so it's okay to think about the individual. So hey everybody, think about mastering where to put your money. Don't pretend the economy isn't what it is. Don't want for free things. Figure out how the game works. It is rigged, but it's rigged in a knowable way. And so now go do the things that you would need to do. 1. Distrust yourself. Don't assume that you read the situation perfectly correct. So don't. I admire Michael Saylor's testicle fortitude. He has the largest nuts I've ever seen in my life. And yet I encourage people, don't do that. You're not prepared for that. I'm not even sure he's prepared for that. But for sure, as the average person is not prepared for that. So go broad. Yeah, but you've got to own assets and you've got to be in something that approximates an all weather fund. I've done videos on this, so if you want all the specifics, just go watch the videos. The deep dives, the last, like if you watch the last three deep dives, I think you'll get all that you need from what you should be doing with your money. Perspective. Yeah.
- [56:20]
Co-host/Guest Analyst
David Ellison, the son of Oracle Larry Ellis Ellison, who's clearly Ballin right now, is the head of Skydance, who just recently acquired Paramount. They're preparing to make a bid for Warner Brothers that would make them the largest conglomerate, bringing together hbo, Discovery, Showtime, cbs, tnt, a bunch of sports contracts all under one umbrella. Some people are saying we don't need more consolidation in the media aspect. Some people think fresh tech money is what the media aspect needs. What's your initial reaction to this?
- [56:51]
Impact Theory Host (Tom Bilyeu)
Because of what's going to happen with AI I'm not worried about consolidation on this at all. There are going to be plenty of outlets and opportunities for young creatives to get the things that they want to make seen. We were just talking about on Wednesday the fact that you're going to see the first AI generated animated film in 2026. They're expecting to get it done in nine months for $30 million, versus the normal three plus years for like $150 million. So I think this is, this is a golden age to be an independent creator because budgets are just going to be dropping, dropping, dropping. People are going to be taking more risks. So the reason that, that it gets bad when you see that kind of consolidation is now there's like, like a gatekeeper and if you're iced out there, then you're just never going to make anything. We just don't live in that time. We live in a time now where there's like no gatekeepers essentially on anything.
- [57:42]
Co-host/Guest Analyst
Yeah.
- [57:43]
Impact Theory Host (Tom Bilyeu)
So, yeah, not worried about it in the slightest. I'm more worried about them going out of business. So that's the thing that, like, scares me. So to stay alive, they may need to consolidate right about now.
- [57:55]
Co-host/Guest Analyst
All right, can you eulogize us a little bit? I don't think we need like a specific sign off. If you just give us something that makes us a little bit more inspirational. I'm not trying to tell you to motivate us, but. But I feel like we need a little bit more than just a see later. Bye. You know what I mean?
- [58:06]
Impact Theory Host (Tom Bilyeu)
Fair. Okay. So I will say this. Humans are a complex and incredible creature. We are capable of the horrors that we're seeing right now, but we are also capable of beauty and compassion and love. But we have to choose to look at that. We have to choose to put ourselves in that position. I am very grateful to the universe, to God, to whatever, that we have the ability to manipulate our own neurochemistry. So we can all choose right now to ratchet up, to spiral out of control with the ready emotions and the easy narratives that are all there to get us wound up. To be on one team or the other, to play a team sport, to want to win, to take that electrode and jam it in our brain, to feel the anger that will give us the clarity and certainty to move forward. That's one way. And a lot of people are going to choose that. That, or we can say that we're going to take that same metaphorical electrode and we're going to jam it into something that is far different. We're going to force ourselves to see the humanity in the other people. We're going to force ourselves to want people to challenge our ideas. We're going to force ourselves to find what we share, to see the things that draw us back towards the middle, to understand that the cause and effect of that leads to far more beautiful things than fighting with each other ever will. And that it feels good to be that kind of person. It feels good to be the kind of person that doesn't allow themselves to be enslaved by their own emotions, to be blinded by the things that they feel. That instead that you're going to rise up above that, that you really are going to see the humanity even in your enemies and try to find a beautiful path forward together. So it's not going to be super popular right now, but. But boy, does it feel a lot better. And it leads to a lot better outcomes. All right everybody. Till next time, be legendary. Take our peace. Most healthy habits are hard. Meal prep takes hours. Gym routines get derailed all the time. Complicated supplement regimens fall apart, often within weeks. But AG1 Next Gen is different. AG1 NextGen delivers what your body actually needs 75 plus vitamins and minerals, 5 clinically studied probiotic strains plus prebiotics and superfoods. It replaces your multivitamin, probiotics and more in one simple daily drink. AG1 Next Gen comes in three new flavors, Tropical citrus and berry. All plant based flavoring with 0 added sugar, 0 artificial sweeteners, 0 erythritol. Every flavor maintains NSF certification for sport, so you know you're getting the strictest quality standards. Subscribe today to try the next gen of AG1 and if you use my link, you'll also get a free bottle of AG D3K2, an AG1 Welcome Kit, and five of the upgraded travel packs. With your first order, click the link in the show notes or just head to drinkag1.comimpact to get started again. That's drinkag1.com impact.