Cenk Uygur: The Real Fight Isn’t Left vs. Right—It’s You vs. the Establishment - PT 2

Summary

Impact Theory Podcast with Tom Bilyeu Episode: Cenk Uygur: The Real Fight Isn’t Left vs. Right – It’s You vs. the Establishment (Part 2) Date: January 30, 2025

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Overview

In this energetic and probing episode, Tom Bilyeu continues his deep dive with Cenk Uygur, founder of The Young Turks, to dissect the true dynamics shaping American politics and society. Far from a standard left-right debate, their conversation centers on the struggle between everyday people and a powerful establishment—fueled by money, corruption, and corporate influence. They scrutinize populist movements, the role of oligarchs and donors, media manipulation, the shortcomings of government and corporate America, and the fate of US democracy. Interwoven are sharp critiques, bold predictions, and a focus on potential paths forward that might actually deliver for the majority.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Populism vs. the Establishment

• Theme: The main adversary is not left vs. right, but the entrenched establishment (across both parties) vs. the populace.
• Cenk's View: Both parties, especially their establishments, are beholden to donors—not voters. Corruption is symmetrical.
  • “Only an idiot couldn’t get it [paid family leave] passed. Or someone who’s corrupt and never wanted to pass it in the first place, which describes almost every president we’ve had.” (06:04, Cenk)
• Tom’s “North Star”: Human flourishing, measured by improvements in the lives of the largest number.

Paid Family Leave as a Litmus Test

• Cenk argues that paid family leave is highly popular (~84% support) but is not passed due to donor opposition and corporate interests.
• “You give me one person who wants to pass it and we pass it like that, overnight.” (04:38, Cenk)

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2. Donald Trump, Popularity, and Policy

• Is Trump a Threat to the Donor Class, or Just Another Player?
  • Cenk sees Trump as ego-driven and obsessed with popularity, which could be leveraged for public good—if appropriately guided.
  • If Trump were to refuse business-as-usual with Israel (e.g., not funding further conflict), that would signal a break from donor control, but Cenk is skeptical.
    • “If he just got out and stopped sending money to Israel, that would be an enormous win.” (11:34, Cenk)
  • Trump's transactional politics: publicly acknowledges major donors and shapes positions accordingly.
    • “He talks very openly about like, hey, got a lot of money from these guys. And so we're doing this thing.” (14:34, Tom)

Trump’s Legacy: Personal vs. Political?

• Tom’s Take: Trump wants to cement a legacy, possibly by ensuring a loyalist succeeds him, delivering real results for the American people.
  • “If I can make the economy boom,...nothing I could do will make me more popular than that. And then if I make sure that I’m followed by somebody that also is going to reinforce all my legacy…” (21:34, Tom)
• Cenk’s Pushback: Trump cares only for his own image and popularity, not for who comes after him.
  • “He only thinks Trump is part of Trump.” (23:25, Cenk)

Transactionalism and Corruption

• Cenk sharply critiques both parties’ establishments.
  • “Nancy Pelosi took the same billion dollars that Mitch McConnell took…mainstream media came in and said, oh, they’re trying really hard. There’s just no way to pass a bill at 84% [support]…I’m so fucking tired of it.” (15:30, Cenk)

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3. Corruption, Donors, and Money in Politics

• Universal Distrust: Polls show over 90% of Americans believe politicians serve donors, not voters.
  • “93% of Americans think that politicians serve their donors instead of their voters.” (17:12, Cenk)
• Getting Money Out of Politics: Would be the most popular reform for any leader—statues would be built, but it’s unlikely as incentives are deeply entrenched.

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4. Oligarchs, Corporate Influence, and the Myth of Altruistic Elites

• Tom’s Perspective: The entrepreneurial giants (Musk, Bezos, Andreessen, etc.) are selfish but effective, and aligning their interests with America’s could yield massive benefits.
• Cenk’s Counter: The oligarchs present at Trump’s side are fixated on self-interest and will exploit power to enrich themselves further—most notably through deregulation, corporate tax breaks, and potentially leveraging crypto for gain.
  • “If you think that Elon Musk isn’t looking to take whatever he has in crypto and find a way to add to his already massive wealth and that isn’t driving him, but charity and the general welfare is…this sucker is born every minute…” (35:12, Cenk)
• Skepticism toward claims of altruism or trickle-down effects from deregulation or corporate entrenchment.
• Tests for Sincerity: Will Trump and his allies cut Pentagon pork or oil subsidies? If not, it’s transparently transactional.

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5. Money Printing, the Fed, and the Middle Class Squeeze

• Tom’s Soapbox: Money printing is the root cause of wealth inequality and the erosion of middle-class prosperity.
  • “When you print money, the fundamental thing you’re doing is saying I’m going to…steal money from everybody that holds the US dollar or debt.” (45:58, Tom)
• Cenk’s Agreement: Fiscal irresponsibility and unchecked printing guarantee disaster, hurting the poor most.
  • “Printing money ad infinitum leads to guaranteed disaster. Right. So we’re totally aligned on that.” (51:53, Cenk)

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6. Corporations: Necessary Evil or Existential Threat?

• Cenk: Corporations are a necessary evil but are currently unchecked—maximizing profit is the only “line of code,” leading to a “greed machine.”

  • Historically, US founders were deeply suspicious of corporations’ influence on democracy.
  • Example: Private equity and BlackRock buying up housing stock, squeezing out the middle class (57:00-59:00).
  • Solution: Democratic capitalism—corporations checked by active, representative government.

• Tom: Agrees on the need for balance; too little or too much regulation is dangerous, but corporations and economic growth are necessary for middle-class prosperity.

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7. Specific Policy Issues and Flashpoints

TikTok Ban and Foreign Influence

• Cenk: The campaign against TikTok is “98% bullshit,” driven by Israel’s concern about narratives—not by Chinese data threats.
  • “The real country that has a much larger factor in TikTok is not China, it’s Israel…It’s a giant scam for some corporation or wealthy person in America to make an unbelievable amount of money. Plus it helps Israel to ban TikTok.” (65:46, Cenk)
• Calls for consistent rules applied to ALL platforms—foreign or domestic.

US vs China (and India’s Rise)

• Cenk: Prefers an economic, not military, rivalry with China. Centralized planning can win in the short term (China), but over time, decentralized, democratic capitalism will win (America, and ultimately India).
  • “I believe in capitalism and I think centralized planning in the long run is a terrible idea…Our actual competitor 50 years from now is India.” (74:25, Cenk)

Elon Musk “Sig Heil” Controversy

• Cenk considers Musk’s gesture an intentional act of trolling/attention-seeking, not Nazism, but skewers the attention economy as “the most valuable commodity” (75:50–77:30).
  • “He wanted the attention. Elon has decided…that the most valuable commodity in America is attention.” (75:50, Cenk)
  • “No one actually knows [his intent]...we’re just going based on our experience, our perspective and what it looked like to us.” (79:59, Cenk)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On What Drives Politicians:
  “He [Trump] doesn’t give a shit about anyone that isn’t named Donald J. Trump.” (19:32, Cenk)
• On Bipartisan Corruption:
  “Pelosi and Biden took billions and the Clintons took billions to not do those bills while pretending to be in favor of those bills.” (15:30, Cenk)
• On Corporate Greed:
  “That’s the mistake we’re making right now. And we need the government to look out for us. They’re supposed to be our representatives. I know they haven’t been for so long…” (58:30, Cenk)
• On TikTok:
  “The campaign against TikTok is 98% bullshit...they’re going off TikTok after because of Israel…It’s a giant scam for some corporation or wealthy person in America to make an unbelievable amount of money.” (62:14 & 65:46, Cenk)
• On Money Printing:
  “When you print money…the only thing you can guarantee is that people are going to be selfish. So if you can align your selfish desires, you’ve got a shot.” (51:29, Tom)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 03:32–06:05 – Paid family leave: Poll-driven policy and political inaction
• 09:59–11:49 – Trump, Israel, and donor influence; what neutrality or refusal of donor demands would look like
• 12:53–17:12 – Money in politics: Trump, drain the swamp, and bipartisan corruption
• 20:15–24:09 – Trump’s legacy and the real motivating factors
• 31:39–35:08 – Oligarchs, self-interest, and predictions on crypto and deregulation
• 40:45–45:57 – Money printing, the Federal Reserve, and the plight of the middle class
• 57:00–60:22 – Private equity, BlackRock, housing, and systemic risk
• 62:14–66:11 – TikTok, foreign influence, and the true drivers behind the ban
• 74:25–75:39 – China’s rise, the fate of centralized planning vs. capitalism, and future of global competition
• 75:50–79:59 – Elon Musk “Sig Heil” controversy: trolling, media, and interpretation

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Tone & Style

• Lively, frank, at times profane (especially Cenk)
• Heavy on direct, sharp critique of political and corporate systems
• Tom is a mix of pragmatic optimism and economic realism; Cenk is fiery, skeptical, and reform-minded
• Both bring data, personal philosophy, and lived experience to the table

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Conclusion

The episode is a vigorous exploration of the roots of systemic dysfunction in America—arguing that true progress will only come by breaking the establishment’s stranglehold, fixing the corrupt money pipeline in politics, and ensuring that economic gains flow not just to oligarchs but to the whole populace. Whether through populist pressure, a rare “ego appeal” to politicians like Trump, or structural reform, both Tom and Cenk agree on the North Star but differ radically on how, or if, we can navigate there from here.

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Listen if you want:

• To see the mechanics behind bipartisan gridlock and donor domination
• Unfiltered takes on Trump, big tech, Israel, China, and economic reform
• Thoughtful analysis of populism’s potential to change the game

Skip if you want:

• Polite, mainstream punditry
• Simple left vs. right narratives
• Avoidance of uncomfortable truths about the American power structure

Transcript

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[A]

I'm Tom Bilyeu and welcome back to Impact Theory. This is part two of my Deep Dive with Cenk Uygur, founder of the Young Turks. If you're just joining us, go back to part one. You are not going to want to miss it because we've already covered why the system feels so broken, how the media is manipulating your view of the world, and why populist movements keep rising around the world. Today, we're diving into the real fight between the establishment and everyday people known as the populace, and how money and influence control politics and what it's going to take to shake up the system and get real change. Let's dive right back in. You've put a lot of pieces on the table and, and the fact that these things move around and there's no static Democrat Party, Republican Party, what is the like if I were to look at Trump now, if you're call it 12 to 20% optimistic, I'm 60 to 70% optimistic. But what would you and I look at and say he's breaking bad or he's doing well, like what? My North Star is very simply human flourishing for the largest number of people possible. So assuming yours is something along those lines, how do we judge whether Trump is moving in the right direction or not?

[C]

Yeah, I think it's, I think it'll be relatively easy to see. So first of all, why am I, why do I have that 12 to 20% optimism in Trump? Because of one thing, he likes to be popular. And that's not a bad trait for a politician to have. So Biden, for example, his policy on Israel got down to 20% in popularity. Yeah. And he's like, I don't care. I don't care if we lose the election, I will fellate the donors no matter what. I served the donors, period. I don't care how Unpopular, I am. He got into the 30, low 30s in approval rating. And. And I'm screaming, you cannot win an election if you're an incumbent in the 40s, let alone in the 30s. What kind of. But they don't care about being popular. They only care about pleasing donors. Again, it's not just Democrats, establishment politicians. Trump, on the other hand, cares about being popular. So if one person. That's why I said, yeah, I definitely meet with Trump. If I met with Trump, I can show them how to be popular. And there's. Oh, that's haughty. It's a bullshit. Give me one chance. Let's work on one thing together, and I can make it more popular and more popular and more popular because it's not rocket science. Read a fucking poll. Paid family leaves at 84%. How stupid is any politician not to pass that? Unless they're owned by the donors who tell them no. Corporate interests don't want moms to have any time off. Right. And so.

[A]

So paid family leave. That's the first one. So if I'm going to guess based on the things you've said that this is going to be. How do we get. I don't know if you'd use the word benefits, but how do we get benefits? Money. Not sure what the right word is. Directly into the hands of the average person.

[C]

Yes.

[A]

Okay, so we start with paid family leave. We're in the meeting with Trump, we're advising.

[C]

Yeah, I. Yes, paid family leave is definitely something that I would advise them on. And you've got to do it right. And there's a certain way to do it. It's. I think it's be easy. I. I can get. If, If Trump said, cenk, you are now the enforcer for paid family leave. I want you to pass it. I get it passed in two weeks. And then people will say, oh, outrageous this guy. How arrogant. No, guys, it's at 84%. Only an idiot couldn't get it passed. Or someone who's corrupt and never wanted to pass it in the first place, which describes almost every president we've had. 84%. If you can't get that passed, you're the most incompetent politician in the world. In the world. What do you need? 86%, 96%. How deeply incompetent are you? Right. So it's not a matter of incompetence. They don't want to pass it. You give me one person who wants to pass it and we pass it like that overnight. What do you do it's so easy. You put the politicians on the spot like Trump does. This is another good equality that Trump has. He misuses it for his own advantage. Oh, will Representative Wilson in South Carolina says something mean about Donald Trump. That's it. Eliminate him in a primary, and he does, and he's gone forever. Instead of saying, he said something about mean, about me. If you said, oh, will, Representative Wilson, you're gonna vote against paid family? Last fucking vote you'll ever have. Go ahead, I dare you. Vote against it. I fucking dare you. Right? You'll pass it instantly. It'll almost by acclimation. Okay? Because nobody wants to get singled out as the corrupt piece of shit working for corporations instead of for American moms. Right? But no one ever puts a spotlight on these guys because they're all corrupt. It's maddening. And there's a couple of honest people like Ro Khanna and Bernie Sanders, and then they don't say anything either because it would offend their fucking Democratic colleagues.

[A]

Let me. Let me ask you a question. Paid family leave, is that a good idea simply because it is popular, or when you look at your North Star, do you go, paid family leave is critical for my North Star, yes.

[C]

So it is both intensely popular and intensely beneficial. So every other nation on earth, not just developed nations, almost every nation on earth, has paid family leave because it's insanity. It is brutal not to have paid family leave. So a lot of people that are in media and in politics, they're in the upper class, so they get paid family leave. They don't realize 85% of Americans don't have paid family leave. You have to use up all of your vacation time. You have to use up all of your pto, everything. You've got to be able to get a couple of weeks with your baby before you go back on the goddamn assembly line, you go back to Burger King, otherwise you're going to go broke, etc. Right. I think it's Estonia that has 82 weeks of paid family leave. We're so much richer than Estonia. How can they. Can we afford. Of course we can afford it. We're just choosing to brutalize our own citizens because we live under corporate rule. So that's one example. But if you want to say the one thing that you'll be able to tell if Trump's going the right direction or wrong direction is Netanyahu just made a deal for the ceasefire that was a big present to Donald Trump. He could have made that deal at any time. Hamas had already agreed to that deal all the way back in July of last year. Right. So Netanyahu is the one that was holding it up. And as Trump comes in, he gives him a big thank you gift here. It'll seem like you brought us the ceasefire. Now, what is Netanyahu going to do next since he just gave Trump something. Plus, Mary Madison gave him $137 million. Her husband in previous elections gave him $200 million. And they are adamantly right wing Israeli supporters. So all of these interests are telling Trump, okay, for now you look like the statesman later, we're going to collect. What are they going to collect? Well, Netanyahu loves starting wars, so he'll probably start. Either he'll try to start a war with Iran and make us fight it or pay for it, or he'll try to annex the west bank or northern Gaza and both of those will create significant conflict. And then at that point, every corrupt son of a bitch in Washington will come and say, oh, it's our special ally and we have a moral relationship with them or blah, blah, blah. No, no, they all got paid. AIPAC was the number one donor in this election cycle. Hundreds of millions of dollars in bribes that we call campaign contributions. So when that happens and Netanyahu comes calling and says to Trump, okay, now make these American sucker citizens pay for my wars. Because we're a special ally. We have a Judeo Christian heritage. I once talked to a rabbi, he's like, I don't remember that Judeo Christian heritage about 80 years ago. They just made that shit up for political purposes. Anyway, so at that point, if Trump goes, yes, we, we're going to join the conflict on Israel's side or we're going to pay for all their wars. My prediction is that his right wing base is going to go, not this time. We're sick of this. Okay, you keep telling me special ally. I don't know what the that means. They have paid family leave in Israel, they have universal health care in Israel and we're sending them our money and we can't afford basic stuff here in America. So they could kill more Palestinians. No, not because the right wing cares about Palestinians or Muslims. Because in general. Right, of course some of them do, but that's not a driving force for them. They're going to just say, no, I don't want to give any more money. And at that point, is Trump going to go, I don't give a shit about you guys, I serve the donors. Right? Then he goes in a bad direction and then he can spiral if he's. If he's going in the wrong direction and people keep attacking him, the more they attack him, the more he'll spiral, right? Or he could do something that no politician in American history as long as I've been around has ever done. He can go, hey, Netanyahu, you think you're fucking me? Wrong. I'm fucking you. Thanks for all the money. Thanks for the. All the gifts. I'm Donald Trump. I stiff everyone. Okay? No, I'm not paying for your wars. I'm going with the MAGA base. We're out. That's your war, not my war. If he does that, then he's going in the right direction, and that'll be very popular if he does that.

[A]

So when he said that comment, that's not our war, even though when he said it sounded like he thought it was a little bit callous, it's also the direction that you think he needs to move in to not be beholden to the donor class.

[C]

There's some on the left will say, no, no, he should support the Palestinians. I know, I know. He should be Mother Teresa, but he isn't, right? And so he's not going to, out of the goodness of his heart, go, oh, my God, those poor Palestinians got killed so badly and slaughtered so badly. Oh, my God, Israel's starving them to death. Oh, I'm so worried about that. Morally, Trump doesn't think that way. He doesn't. That's just not a thing he cares about, right? So he's not going to do it out of the goodness of his heart. And since he's never going to help the Palestinians and no American politicians ever going to help the Palestinians, I'll take neutrality all day, every day. Just stop sending our money to them. I know Israel will continue to brutalize them, but at least they'll have a fighter's chance of at some point, getting a balance of power so they can get to a peace deal. It's not because I'm against Israel. In fact, I think that peace deal would finally create a safe haven for Jews, which was the whole point of Israel. But instead, they have these monsters that are in charge now who are like, no more land, more land, more war. More war. Kill them more. Right? And so that doesn't help Israel. It makes the whole world hate Israel, and even worse, it makes the whole world hate Jews. And I hate that. I've got Jewish family, I've got Jewish friends, so it's. It's wrong in every direction. So if he, If. If he just got out and stopped sending money to Israel. That would be an enormous win.

[A]

Okay.

[C]

Especially. Sorry, one last thing, because without American money. What? Israel's going to fight a war with Iran by itself? No, it's not. No way that they start that war unless they think we're backing them. So hey, we just prevented a war. That's a giant win.

[A]

Do you think this plays the same if it's the Ukraine or is there a special case in Israel?

[C]

No, it's a special case in Israel. Ukraine doesn't have the same American donor class, doesn't have any of this. Those particulars. Ukraine hasn't controlled both the Democratic and Republican Party my whole lifetime. No, Ukraine is just random. Israel is a thing of its own. But, but I don't want anybody to misinterpret. They just. Every donor has the same kind of power depending on how much money they put in. So the drug companies are four times more powerful than APAC because they put in usually, not this election cycle. Usually at least four times and oftentimes way more than aipac. They. So they're the most powerful lobby in the country. The oil companies are huge. There's all these different lobbies. The Israeli lobby is like fourth, fifth, sixth in the norm in a normal election cycle. So there's no like boogeyman. Oh, they control everything. No, it's not like that. They're just an normal super powerful donor and the donors control everything. It has nothing to do with race, religion or anything. Right.

[A]

How do you read the fact that Trump has RFK set up to be the person interfacing with the drug companies? Is that a sign that he doesn't give a fuck about that donor class

[C]

or no, if you go down the list, get out of Israel, do paid family leave, I can give you half a dozen other things. The last couple where he would be get to be a hero. The ultimate prizes. If any politician, and yes, this includes Donald Trump, actually got money out of politics, they would be the biggest legend this country has ever seen. They would build statues of them in every city. Okay. And if he ever found that out and realized that that was really true, then he might think, oh, statues of me in every city. That sounds pretty good. Right? So there's a, there's potentially a way to push him into doing that. But, but, but it's unlikely that he's going to go in that direction. Partly because he needs someone to guide him in that direction. Not even necessarily guide him, but just to suggest, hey, what if we did this? What if it was, you see how it's popular, right? But all the people around them care about their own self interest. They all have their different agendas. And this guy wants to run for governor. The other guy wants to be vice president or president. The other guy needs that donor class, and that donor needs deregulation. So they're all like pigs at the trough. And Trump, you know, he doesn't mind corruption, so he's enabling all of that. But if, but if he chose not to, and he could, because he's a wild card, then he can go in a positive direction.

[A]

I'll be very interested to see how it plays out. He talks very openly about like, hey, got a lot of money from these guys. And so we're doing this thing. It's really interesting to see. Do I have not heard him make any noises about getting money out of politics, has he?

[C]

No, no, not at all. No. And look, remember in 2016, he the. His most popular plank was drain the swamp. So whenever he said drain the swamp, the crowd goes nuts. Right? The right wing hated corruption. Now, in the old days, they didn't hate corruption. They loved Mitch McConnell because Sean Hannity told him to love Mitch McConnell. And Mitch McConnell was the heart of darkness and corruption. And by the way, same for Democrats. Nancy Pelosi took the same billion dollars that. That Mitch McConnell took. And she's the heart of darkness on corruption on the Democratic side. But if you tell a Democrat that, oh, my God, how dare you. No, Nancy Pelosi is an angel. Really? Same money, same promises to donors. And you think she's an angel. And you think it's just a coincidence that the Democratic Party couldn't get paid family leave passed, couldn't get minimum wage passed. I can again a dozen bills that poll at above 67%. Two thirds of the country says, yes, I definitely want that. And Pelosi and Biden took billions and the Clintons took billions to not do those bills while pretending to be in favor of those bills. And mainstream media came in and said, oh, they're trying really hard. There's just no way to pass a bill at 84%. Oh, no, no. You'd have to be at 112% to pass a bill. I mean, they're just such American heroes, blah, blah, blah. I'm so fucking tired of it. So back to Trump. So he realized during the swamp was a good talking point, and it worked really well for him in 2016. And if you notice, he lost in 2020 when he stopped talking about draining the swamp. Okay, why did he stop talking about draining the swamp because the entire time he was president, he was filling the swamp. He's like, you get a tax cut, you get a tax cut, you get deregulation, you get deregulation. He's like Oprah handing out cars, right? So right now if you told him, get money out of politics, he'd be like, what are you, mental? That money's coming at me. I'm not getting it out of politics. But if there was an honest advisor, right wing or otherwise, that said to him, brother, you're not up for reelection. You don't need any campaign contributions, that frees you to actually do the thing that is the single most popular thing in America. 93% of Americans think that politicians serve their donors instead of their voters.

[A]

93%.

[C]

93%, by the way, 93% of cable news anchors. That the politicians serve their voters instead of their doors. I made that last number up, but. Because it's actually 100%. But okay, so. So he has no inclination in that direction. And no one around him has any inclination in that direction. They all love that money and that money is what got them to the top, just like it got Pelosi and McConnell to the top. But he actually does have an opportunity, since he's not going to run for reelection, that he could do that, whereas no other politician would.

[A]

I have a base assumption that Trump is thinking legacy and that the only way he sees his legacy being cemented is. Is. Is if he is followed by somebody from his crew winning the next election. So while he isn't going to run for reelection, I think he is going to try to set things up for it to keep going. So now the question becomes.

[C]

I don't think so.

[A]

No, I don't. You think as long as this is good, we're out?

[C]

I don't think Trump feel true.

[A]

Why do you think he's going so hard in his first hundred days just to. I've got four years, I need to do something cool. And that's just that.

[C]

No, he wants to be popular.

[A]

We'll be right back with more from Jane Huger.

[B]

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[A]

And we're back.

[C]

No, he wants to be popular and he's. That's a smart strategy. As I talked about it. I think I talked about in the beginning, the optics of him signing all those executive orders was amazing. And it, and it, it, it animates his base and it makes it more popular within the base. It makes him look more active. With Democrats, you have to push, push, push.

[A]

Right, but do you think he's trying to look more active? He's actually trying to be more active.

[C]

Look, I, I mean, so does he really care about ending birthright citizenship? I don't think so. And I think he's doing that as red meat for the base. So I don't think he's animated by any one of those policies. I think he's doing it because he thinks that that's what people will like. But I don't care. I don't care what animates him. But the reason I interrupted, though, was because if you said to him, it's really important for your legacy for J.D. vance to win, blah, blah, blah, blah, in my opinion, he's like, who's J.D. vance? Like, he doesn't give a shit about anyone that isn't named Donald J. Trump. So he's not going to care about J.D. vance. He's not going to think of his legacy in that way. He's going to think of legacy in terms of what did Donald J. Trump do?

[A]

Let me give you a different take. Tell me where I go awry. I think it's going to. And look, I'm planting a flag so we'll find out if I end up being right or not. This is my read of the situation. Donald Trump wants to echo through the annals of history. He wants to be up on Mount Rushmore. Part of him probably believes that he already deserves or is certainly on that path, but he understands that he's gonna have to really do something effective over the next four years, and that if you really want this stuff to carry on, because four years isn't gonna be enough, you've got to have somebody coming in behind you. Now, I don't think he cares who it is, so it doesn't have to be J.D. vance. Maybe he's the least likely in Trump's mind, I have no idea. But it is going to be somebody that is extremely loyal to Trump that will say it is due to the glory of our Godfather Trump that I have ended up here. And, you know, I want to thank the voters, of course, but I think we all know I never would have made it here without Donald Trump. Like, I can imagine him having these fantasies now to pull that off. He's Got to do things that are very popular. I think you're right that he has a pull towards. I know how to read the room. And so the thing that. That motivates me isn't sort of objectively moral or right or anything like that. It's, I am here at the will of the people, and I'm going to do things that they think are awesome. And look, there are going to be times where I'm just going to override them, because I know best, and I've got to do this to get this thing done. And. But he is so aware that being a man of the people that you aspire to be is this one, two punch that's impossible to beat. So when he's at McDonald's, he's still in, like, a $3,000 suit or a $10,000 suit, whatever, but he's rocking the line and he's making jokes and he's very funny, and he's driving the dump truck, the trash truck. And so I have a feeling he really understands that if I can make the economy boom for the American people, if I can begin lowering inflation, if I can put more money in their pockets, that that is, nothing I could do will make me more popular than that. And then if I make sure that I'm followed by somebody that also is going to reinforce all my legacy and everything that I've been building, then there's a real shot that I'm going to be remembered. And so that is my gut instinct of what's going to drive him. I think he's going to move furiously. I think he's going to continue to surround him by the best and the brightest entrepreneurial executors to see if he can actually pull this stuff off. Now, whether he gets mired in the realities of politics, and then like the fighter who falls back to his brawler ways just because he starts getting frustrated, that's very possible. But the energy that I see is somebody who's actually trying to pull something off.

[C]

I. I think you're projecting. I think you're projecting on two fronts. One is on legacy and the person who follows him. I don't think he thinks of legacy as any other human being than him, as traditional politician like Biden would think, oh, who's going to follow me? And Obama? Oh, my God. Such an egomaniac obsessed with his legacy. How do I appear? How do I appear? Okay, I need to have this person win after me. So my legacy, that's a very normal politician, right? I don't think Trump's a normal politician. I don't think he cares about anybody else and would not perceive any other person who follows him as part of Trump. He only thinks Trump is part of Trump. And so it's hard to, you know who's right. I don't know.

[A]

This is fun. Because time will tell, right? So we're about to watch it all play out.

[C]

I mean, look at what he did to his last vice president. They told him they're chanting, hang Mike Pence.

[A]

Oh, make no mistake, if he thinks somebody's being disloyal, he will cut them out as fast as you can, say, get rid of him. Yeah, there's no doubt about that.

[C]

So then that's why I think you're thinking about legacy in the wrong way. Although I understand what you're saying. He does care about legacy, just not, by extension, just whatever he does. Secondly, because that goes towards his ego. So I agree with you on that. So this, the second thing is you're thinking, well, if he delivers for the American people, then he'll be more popular. Because that's how you think, right? Because you're a good person and you think, hey, if I deliver, then people like me, etcetera, we saw in his first term, he didn't do any of that. He just thinks, what's good for me? And then if it turns out that I'm popular, great. I'll give you an example. So he pressured Powell at the Fed to make sure he kept interest rates as low as humanly possible. But if you, and if you keep interest rates really low when you're president, that's going to be to your advantage and arguably the American people's advantage, because low interest rates are generally a good thing, right? Keep the economy humming. But they have a big downside, which is that if you keep them too low for too long, it could contribute to inflation, and especially if inflation is going to come and then pure pours fuel on that fire. So it's not the only reason why inflation came, but it definitely was problematic that they had kept those rates too low, too low for too long. And so if Donald Trump actually cared about the American people, he would add a more balanced approach to the Federal Reserve. But he doesn't, he thinks gives a shit what happens after I'm president. I need these four years to kick ass on the economy, because when I go up for reelection, I'm going to say the economy was great, and if it blows up on the next guy, who gives a shit? So, like, you're, you're putting these moral thoughts into his head that I don't think he has.

[A]

I'm not trying to put moral thoughts into his head because I don't think he's that kind of creature. What I'm, what I see now, I admittedly was not paying super close attention in 2016, so I don't have a sense of who he was and what he did. So I'm really clocking him as when he started running for office this time.

[C]

Okay.

[A]

Watching him there and, and I'm taking a big cue from the people that he's surrounded himself with. So if you remember, the big question was, will this guy who burned through everybody in the first term, will he be able to get people around him that really are high quality people that are going to help him really run a government? And I'll admit when I saw the inauguration, I had two thoughts. One, oh shit. This really is what an oligarchy looks like. You have the richest people in the world just off his shoulder. And so I was like, okay, okay, I get why people are being paranoid and it's good. I want people to be paranoid. But I also saw the greatest operators of this generation. I mean, just absolutely unbelievable operators. Now, whether they can get along from an ego standpoint, I don't know. And we're going to see whether those people are fighting for things that are going to be good for the middle class or not, I don't know. We're going to see.

[C]

I know.

[A]

Heard. Let me, let me finish this because if for nothing else, I want to be able to play this back in four years and see if I was an absolute lunatic or if I got close. And I think he believes that the people really wanted, they want change. They are pushing back against ideology that I, I've done a whole spiel on why I don't like the phrase the woke mind virus, but given that they will use phrases like that, I'll just shorthand it. The American people don't want that anymore. We're going to drill, baby, drill. And he is, you're right. He's going to run everything hot and he's going to drill. And if that has impacts on climate change, he's not really going to worry about it for sure. But it will be good for American energy independence. We will be able to sell that energy elsewhere in the world. It will put us in a strong economic position. If we can find a balance between tariff as cudgel to get the deals done that we want and actually get some money on some of the tariffs, there will be a brief period of inflation because there's not the easy thing to switch over to once you kill some of these products through tariffs. But it will encourage people to come into America in terms of manufacturing. And we must, if we want to re be isolationists, we're going to have to bring manufacturing back. If we're going to go into a legitimate cold war that almost certainly will end hot with China at some point in the next 15, 20 years, we're going to need to bring back that manufacturing base. So he's going to have a good true story there. He's already got masasan to contribute 100 million for sure, potentially up to 500 billion. Sorry if I said 100 million. 100 billion, possibly 500 billion. Masasan, who is Japanese, said, it is because of you, Mr. Trump, that we are doing this deal. Now, that's clearly a line that he wants said because it got talked over at one point. Masasan made sure to repeat it. So, so that felt very theatrical, but nonetheless is like, okay, here's a guy that people want to appease. He's bringing in global dollars into the US and so I see somebody who looks at the American economy goes, hold on, we are the biggest, we're the baddest motherfuckers on planet Earth, and we're going to start acting like it and we're going to push people around and it's going to be a little short term. There's no doubt there will be a backlash to all this stuff. You cannot go bully people and not expect that at some point that that's going to come home to roost. That's where I think sightedness of Trump will come back and be problematic down the road. But I think it gets him eight years, four years of him, plus four years of whoever his successor is going to be. And that's probably about as far. I mean, he'll in his mind be like it's going to go on forever, but in his mind he can believe, yep, for sure we're going to get somebody else reelected. And I, I don't think people give him enough credit. He does get the gist of how this stuff works. If you push him on the details, he's going to fall apart. But he gets the gist of how this stuff works. And so if, meaning the economy. And so if he's able to make us more independent, make a lot of money off of our natural resources, convince people to, some people read it as rape, Alaska, but to utilize Alaska to not only drill for oil, but to drill for rare earth minerals and things that otherwise we'd have to go to other countries for. I mean, hey, you are using our resources, which is going to make some people deeply uncomfortable, but it will make us economically more powerful. And I, I am just utterly convinced at the end of the day, the only thing anybody cares about is are you making my life better and giving me hope that my kids lives will be better. And if you do that, they will go along with literally the most horrifying shit ever. And so I think that he's going to capture that fervor, turn it into real results in people's pockets and, and people can be like, yeah, word, this is dope. And again, I think the rubber band snaps back and I think that there will be prices to pay, but I think that's eight years from now. It's my gut, I think there's an

[C]

80% chance none of that happens. Okay, I do, I'll come back to the hope of the 20% that we've been talking about, that's that some of that will happen.

[A]

But don't go anywhere. Jank is about to connect the dots on why the system is, isn't working for you and what you can do about it. So stay tuned.

[D]

If you work in university maintenance, Grainger considers you an MVP because your playbook ensures your arena is always ready for tip off. And Grainger is your trusted partner, offering the products you need all in one place, from H VAC and plumbing supplies to lighting and more. And all delivered with plenty of time left on the clock so your team always gets the win. Call 1-800-GRAINGER visit grainger.com or just stop by Granger for the ones who get it done.

[A]

And we're back.

[C]

You're projecting competence on him. You're projecting like an ability to know what the right policies are that I've never seen him have. You're projecting competence and a little bit of good intent on the people around him, which is I have never seen. So let's start, let's start with the, the great operators, the oligarchs that are behind him. Right? I agree with you. They're great operators. Bezos and Zuckerberg, it's amazing. Elon, Starlink and SpaceX are wonders to behold. Right? But they're great operators on their own behalf. I've never seen them be great operators on behalf of the American people. And to be fair, that's not their job. Right. Their job is to create these giant companies and make literally more money than anyone has ever seen.

[A]

Literally.

[C]

So the idea that the Bezos and the Musk of the world are going to go, hey, you know what I mean? I was on a major competition with the other guys on this podium to be the richest man in the world. But I don't care about that anymore. I want to operate on behalf of the American people. I got that at 2% in terms of likelihood. I've got it them thinking I'm going to use this to beat Bezos and be number one at 98%. So what is the first thing Eli's going to do? He's going to deregulate his own business, guaranteed. Now he says he's going to cut, you know, waste, fraud and abuse in from with by using Doge, the thing that he named after his own, you know, coin. Right. His own, his own product. It's unbelievable.

[A]

The, the comments are not going to like that classification. I get what you're saying. Doge technically isn't his, but yes, anyway, his.

[C]

Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. You can make any excuses you like. Okay. And in fact, if you're going to get angry about that, wait till you get a little. The next thing I'm going to say, the major thing that they are going to do the, the number one thing that Trump did in his first term was the biggest corporate tax cuts literally in American history. Added 8 over $8 trillion to the deficit, balanced budget. He doesn't care about balancing the budget at all. He added more to the deficit than anyone did. Okay, Give more to the rich. Give more to the rich. Give more to the rich. Give more to the rich. That was his main driving force. Why he's rich. Everybody he knows is rich. Right? So self interest. So this time around, through crypto, they're going to rob so much money from the American people and there is going to be an unbelievable rage about that when it hits. That could be an absolute calamity.

[A]

Do you mean his meme coins or just the celebration of crypto.

[C]

And so this is why people get even more angry because I have no idea what scheme they're going to come up with, but it might be the bitcoin reserve where they take fake money that isn't real at all and then they have the US government back it. So then it becomes real. So I had all this fake money and now the American people have to pay for my fake money with real money. What? No, I didn't sign up for that. I don't want to pay for your dumb ass bitcoin or whatever it is you want to go have fun with bitcoin. Go have fun with it. You want to. And a lot of people have made good money. God bless. I got no, it's a free country. You do whatever you like, right? After all the stuff that the right wing has talked about. We don't want the government to do this. We don't want government regulation, and we don't want, want big government. If they say the government should then come in and, and guarantee the bitcoins and the meme coins and the blah, blah, blah, and all the different crypto, and they go, no, now we should have FDIC cover it. No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. Are you anti government or are you not anti government? Right? And remember, the whole thesis of crypto was the government's bad. We don't need the government, we don't want the government, we don't want it regulated. Now all of a sudden I'm hearing, oh, the government should create a reserve. The government should guarantee it. The government should do this, the government should do that. We're making predictions, right? I predict the largest robbery anybody's ever seen, and then when the right wing base realizes they're the ones who got robbed, they're gonna be mad, okay? And the left wing already hates these guys, so I don't know what that creates, but that, that is a massive iceberg head. It doesn't have to happen. And I'm not saying it's guaranteed at all, right? But if you think that Elon Musk isn't looking to take whatever he has in crypto and find a way to, to add to his already massive wealth and that, that isn't driving him, but charity and general welfare is driving him. I mean, this sucker is born every minute, okay? If you think Bezos is Zuckerberg and all of these guys are like, all of a sudden, I care about the American people. I see that they have selected Donald Trump and I am here to help. This has nothing to do with my financial interest. I just came here to help. Get out. Like, come on, guys, please don't be suckers. I'm telling you right now, when Democratic donors come in, they're not here to help you. They're here to take order the Democratic politicians to do as they're told. You know that that's true of Democratic politicians. You know it's true of old school Republican politicians. But you think that Trump and Elon Musk are the one exception? The guy who ran a fake university and a fake charity, That's Trump. He had to pay a $25 million fine for his fake university. He had to Pay, I think, $2 million fine for his fake charity. That guy cares about the American people and doesn't care about himself. That's just nuts. He's a politician. Okay, so again, I think that there is a part that it could go right, but look at the things that you mentioned. I'll break it down into two categories. One is things I don't agree with, but that are relatively popular these days in America. So if you're on the left and you don't want them to ravage Alaska, that's a sad day for us. That ship has sailed. It's going to happen and the American people aren't going to mind that much. Okay, if you don't want, you know, significant immigration reform, sad day for you. That ship has sailed. Right. And you mentioned a couple other things that. Yes, you're right. The American people agree with the right wing on that these days. They agree with Trump on these, that on these days. So they'll do that. Those are easy wins. Their base agrees, the general population agrees. Their donors agree. Okay, now how can you tell if they're honest actors? Well, if you want to cut waste, fraud and abuse. Number one, the Pentagon sitting there loaded with pork and the right wing base agrees it's pork. Pork, pork, pork, pork. Don't give me this about support the troops. You pay them $20,000 a year and trillions goes to Raytheon, Lockheed Martin, Boeing, etc. Right? So if they cut the Pentagon significantly, I'll say credit where credit is due. They delivered $30 billion in oil subsidies. Why the fuck are we giving the most profitable companies in the world our taxpayer dollars? If you're mad about the 4 billion every year that goes to Israel, you should be fuming about the $30 billion that goes to the oil companies. Subsidies? Why the fuck are we giving them subsidies? Maybe they needed a hundred years ago when the industry started, but they don't need it today. That $30 billion is a goddamn robbery and they take it out of your paycheck. Is Elon going to really cut that? Is Trump really going to cut that? Well, the proof is going to be in the pudding. We're all going to see together if they don't cut it. They were full of shit. Drill, baby, drill Wasn't for our benefit. It was for the oil company's benefit. And you know Trump, he says it so. Oil companies give me money, I'll let you drill anywhere. He says. I was against electric vehicles, but Then Elon gave me a strong endorsement. Now I'm in favor of electric vehicles. I was going to ban TikTok, But Jeff Yaz, 15% owner of Tik Tock, gave me a couple million dollars. Now, I like TikTok, okay? So he's super transactional. He's just going to deliver for the people who give him a shitload of money. And so those are the oligarchs sitting on that stand. Our only hope for you not being monumentally wrong is that somehow some decent person gets in the room and says, donald, forget all these guys. You already won. You don't need any of the oil companies, you don't need Elon Musk, you don't need Zuckerberg, you don't need any of those guys. All you need is to actually deliver for the American people. That way, you'll be super popular. The brother is 98% ego. You have to appeal to his ego. But if you do and you show him that being popular is the best way to feed his ego, then you've got your lane in which he could do a lot of wonderful things. But that is. But he's never shown that. So that's why the left wing is not wrong when they say, cenk, you're in fantasy land. He's never done that. I know you think you're seeing something in the right wing base, you're seeing something in Trump that might get to that result, but it's awfully hard for us to see it since he's never done it before.

[A]

Yeah, this is definitely something that is going to play out in time. I think you're right that he's driven largely by ego. But as of right now, the thing that will feed his ego is to get money in the pockets of everyday Americans. Those are the big promises that he's made. And if he does it, he would be hugely popular. So the only thing I'm trading on is that he'll actually do that now. We'll find out fast enough if he does or doesn't, so it'll be interesting to watch. I think one thing that. Okay, so first I have to plant for my own audience. So I'm gonna get lit up in the comments that I didn't say anything. So bitcoin as f money versus Fiat as real money. I won't bother dragging us down that path right now. I will just say, dear beloved audience, you and I disagree on that. I certainly see fiat as the far more problematic money than bitcoin. Even without needing you to believe that bitcoin is real and fiat is fake. Just that fiat is far easier to manipulate. But my take.

[C]

Can I just real quick on that. And I grant everybody that I'm not an expert on it. And so then you can pile on more or you don't know. You don't know. I'll just say real quick. There's different buckets here. So the meme coins, like Trump's meme coin. Trash. Utter trash. It's just speculation. It has no intrinsic value, no nothing. It's not a currency.

[A]

Aggressively true.

[C]

Okay.

[A]

Meme coins make me very sad.

[C]

Okay, good. Totally agree. I get that Bitcoin is a currency and not the same as a meme coin.

[A]

Most people are going to say is not a currency. It's a store of wealth. Some people want it to be a currency, but that's a whole different thing.

[C]

Yeah, but it's a different category than meme coins, correct?

[A]

Wildly so, yeah.

[C]

And you could attach any label you like to it, but I understand it. And then when you get to the US Dollar, for example, in the Federal Reserve, I'm not saying that there aren't problems. There's significant problems there. So the Federal Reserve is run by the New York Federal Reserve that makes the main decisions. Well, who makes the main decisions for the New York Federal Reserve? Their board does. Well, who's on their board? The CEOs of the seven major banks. The Federal Reserve isn't serving us, is serving the seven major banks.

[A]

Agreed.

[C]

Yeah. So don't get me wrong. I understand the problem with the Federal Reserve. I understand that that currency has issues too. But nevertheless, we're based on that system, and that system has continued. And the dollar being the main currency in the world is enormously important to us.

[A]

Agreed.

[C]

Right. So I would be very, very careful about upsetting that system. Reforms have to be done with. With a tender touch there.

[A]

Okay, yeah, I'll sort of agree with that. I will say if we don't reform the system, it will go away and it will be cataclysmic for the US on the world stage for sure. And every empire, I don't know, we want to call America now, but every empire that's ever had a reserve currency ever throughout all of human history has printed their way into oblivion. Everyone, there's no exceptions. So I don't want to get on my soapbox because it's not often that I get to sit across from you, but my audience knows. Well, my soapbox around printing money, they have drinking games around it, and I'm worried that they will die of alcohol poisoning.

[C]

But Tom, I actually totally agree with you. Like that doesn't mean bitcoin is the answer in my world. And it doesn't mean that we need to do drastic reform overnight because that could really overturn the apple cart in a disastrous way.

[A]

Oh, we agree.

[C]

Okay. But I fundamentally agree with you that non stop printing of money will catch up with you and it's going to leave a mark.

[A]

I think it's already caught up with us, man. I think so. Here is my core thesis. You and I both want the same thing. We want middle income average people to thrive. And I'll define thriving where over time they are making more and more money and they are convinced that their kids lives will be even better than theirs. When you go through a period like that, it is fucking glorious. And also that they feel safe. I think that's incredibly important.

[D]

Cool.

[C]

That's it.

[A]

That's all I'm trying to help people get to. And when you print money, the fundamental thing you're doing is saying I'm going to. And these are my words. When money is printed, you are stealing money from everybody that holds the US dollar or debt. US debt from everybody. So it could be China, right? They hold a ton of debt. Everybody that holds it, you're stealing from them. So the nice thing about being the reserve currency is you're not just stealing from your own people, you're stealing from everybody else. You don't have to have them vote for it though. And so by my book, that's pretty fucking sinister. And so now guess who you hurt the most? You hurt the poor people the most. Because when you take their buying power, they don't have a cushion that the rich people have. I'm speaking as a rich person who actually benefits from money printing. And I'm screaming from the rooftops, for the love of God, please stop. Because this is why people actually kill the rich. Because you create a system where they cannot get ahead. So it goes like this. I know you know this, but just throw it out. So everybody, here's it. When you're printing money the way that you, you're the same amount is in the person's bank account. Let's say they have a hundred dollars. They still have $100, but $100 buys now $90 worth of stuff and then 80 and then 70 and just on and on down. They still have a hundred though. Now you can put money back into the system, but the only way that you put money back into the system is by buying debt. So now if you aren't holding debt, there's no way for them to get that money into the system, which there's a name for, the Cantillon Effect, or whatever the fuck it's called. And so people closest who know what they're going to buy, they get their stuff bought. And so now that upper echelon of people, they end up getting richer and richer and richer. That's way one that they get richer. The second way that they get richer is as you devalue the currency, things that you hold that are assets go up in value. Not really. They just go up in value in the proportion that the buying power of the dollar goes down. So if you have a house, then your house goes from 200,000 to 500,000 to $1 million over enough years. It's still worth the same. It's just that the dollar is worth a lot less. So it takes a lot more dollars to buy the same house. So by owning assets, you have a hedge against the fact that they're printing money. Now the problem is 50% of Americans don't have assets. So you keep getting this runaway divide between the rich and the poor, but it's all born of money printing. And so, dude, this is one. I really feel like I'm screaming into a tornado and people just cannot hear what I'm saying, that the money printing is the problem. Now, to make it even worse, we've gotten ourselves already in a situation where if you don't print money, the short term problem is so brutal that they're going to keep printing money. And I get it. The. The short term problem would be so fucking brutal. I get why they're printing money, but Jesus, if we can't get out of that system somehow, some way. So people talk about bitcoin as a lifeboat. I fucking hate that language, by the way, because that still means most people on Titanic fucking die. So I'm not super keen, but at least there's something. Anyway, it does need to be bitcoin. Money printing is where I want people to focus. So you and I both want middle class, average everyday person who works their ass off trying to make ends meet for their family. We want to create a system where if they work and they're diligent, that they're going to make more money and that their kids are going to do even better than them. Boom. Nice and easy. Now, I think where we start to disagree is that I am suspicious of oligarchs. I am suspicious of money in politics. I think it's wildly deranging deeply problematic, and we need to get it the fuck out. However, I think that companies are the economic engine that will allow your average person to make more money and their kids to do even better. It's obviously an oversimplification, but without a thriving economy, there's a reason that America is the number one economy in the world. And if we don't do things that are good for the economy, we're really going to be in trouble. And I get anybody that looks at all these billionaires with a side eye, but, man, if you take somebody like Marc Andreessen, I don't know if he's going to love me bringing him up and dragging him into this fight. But is Mark a flawed person? Probably. I don't know him very well, but when I really look at the way that he talks about how to think about your own life, how to think about getting educated, how to teach your children how to run a company, man, it's all real and it's good. And if you do it in your own life, these are things he says for free, it will make you better at controlling your own life, controlling your education, building a company, if that's what you want to do. And he's one of the people that's talking to Trump and saying, we need to do these things. And so. And Elon, dude, even if Elon was like, deregulate my company so I can keep doing more, there's no one in my lifetime who's better executed against grand ideas than him. So we've got a group of people that, even when they're being selfish, have delivered the world pretty incredible things. I don't mind if people look sideways at social media. Maybe that was a little weird, but boy, oh, boy, it can break bad. There's no doubt. And these guys are going to be selfish a thousand percent. But my whole thing on humans is the only thing you can guarantee is that people are going to be selfish. So if you can align your selfish desires, you've got a shot. So my optimism is entirely around not believing that they're being altruistic, but believing that the things they want are actually good for the economy and that we'll need a booming economy that isn't deranged by corporate dollars, but we need a booming economy that is immediately accessible by the middle class.

[C]

So when you said now will diverge before be before you said, everything you said before then I agree 100% with, okay, so. But I'll flesh that out for you. So on the left, there's Stephanie Kelton who came up with an interesting modern monetary theory. And what that basically says is printing money is no big deal and deficits don't matter on the right. Dick Cheney said the same thing. Deficits don't matter any is a famous moment where he whispers that in Bush's ear while they're actually in a meeting and are on air. And so both of those folks I don't agree with, I think it's just a matter of simple logic, economics, etc. Printing money ad infinitum leads to guaranteed disaster. Right. So we're totally aligned on that. I'll give you one more data point there. So I interviewed Ray Dalio, legendary investor.

[A]

Love Ray.

[C]

Yeah. And what I love about Ray Dalio is how logical he is. And so I deeply respect that, brother. Okay, so. And again, it doesn't mean that he's an angel, it doesn't mean any of these folks are angels. But with a very limited experience I've had with him, it's a good guy. But most importantly, logical is going to do things that make sense. So I talked to him about the Federal Reserve, and he had actually lost all of his money in the very beginning, considers it his biggest mistake. What he didn't realize was that the Fed was going to come in and print more money. And so now, of course, then he adjusted for that, made an enormous amount of money, et cetera. But we got to the point where I then asked them, said, okay, now the Federal Reserve already bailed out the banks and then it printed more money. And then whenever we run into trouble, Covid it prints more money. And I said, so what if we run into a giant economic problem and the Federal Reserve has to print even more money, what do you think will happen? And he said, I think we're out of bullets. And so if they go to print money on a mass scale again, I think we're going to run into a. A giant problem. Okay? And so I believe that. I think that's true. I think that's logical. I think we're a little bit on the Titanic here, but it's been such a long journey that people forget that there's still an iceberg out there and they think we're unsinkable. So I could, you know, we're super aligned on that, and we've got to find a way to get that back under control and not have it just serve the seven banks, but actually serve the American people, etc.

[A]

Etc.

[C]

So now when you get into the divergence, and so let's take a couple Examples. So are all companies evil? No, of course not. That's ridiculous. You run a company, I run a company. They're not evil companies. We have a sponsor aspiration. They're good guys trying to help the world. It's. You can go on and on. Right. So do we need corporations? We do, but our founding fathers said it. Well, they said it was at best a necessary evil. And they said be super careful because corporations will accumulate a lot of money and a lot of power and then they will work against democracy. Oh my God, they were totally right. They were 100% right. And if you remember in the American Revolution, they're not just going against the British Empire, they're going against the British East India Company. In fact, the Boston Tea Party is a revolt not against the empire, but against that particular corporation. They throw their tea, their product into the harbor in. In a revolt against corporate rule that the British Empire has imposed upon the colonies. So they were right about their warning and it is true that it is necessary. But we have to be inordinately careful with corporations. And we have not been so now. So how do you be careful? Well, you. Right now we only have one line of code for corporations. Maximize profit. That is a super dangerous line of code. And on the one hand, it makes perfect sense. It's, you know, you funnel people's natural selfishness into a productive avenue so that it could create income and revenue and improve the economy, create jobs, et cetera. On the other hand, it starts a greed machine. And that greed machine grows and grows and grows and is only interested in itself and only interested in maximizing profit. Other countries and other systems have put in two or three lines of code. Yes, you should maximize profit, but you should also care about stakeholders. You have to care about the community. And what does that mean, to care about the community? There's certain guidelines. So you don't. Well, if I want to maximize profit and I have a toxic product, I dump it into the river. I'm going to make a lot more money because instead of treating the toxic chemicals and that's going to cost me a lot of money, and make sure you dispose of them properly, let's get rid of them. Right, So I maximize profit. If that's your only line of code, we're screwed. Other countries say, no, you cannot poison the rivers, etc. Now you say like we say that too. Barely. Barely. That's the regulation that we talked about earlier and now trump musk. And everybody's saying deregulate. You don't even need those Tiny amount of regulations, get rid of it all. Let corporations be above the law. Super dangerous. Not because there shouldn't be corporations, but because I believe in democratic capitalism. Again, it's a concept I explained in my book. And what I mean by democratic capitalism is we have capitalism, but it's checked by democracy that our government officials, our politicians, our representatives are supposed to make sure that those corporations do not rob us blind. Because the corporations are perfectly capable of looking out for their own interests. We don't have to worry about that. Right. We have to worry that our representatives in government look out for our interests. Right? So then they, what that creates is balance. But right now we don't have that balance. So what does that lead to? I'll give you a specific example. And now a lot of right wing populists are mad about this. This is the first time I realized the right wing populists were headed in an interesting and potentially productive direction is when Charlie Kirk came on our show in the Republican convention. And I forget if he brought it up or I brought it up, but we started talking about how private equity, BlackRock, et cetera, are buying all the residential real estate in the country. And he said, I hate that. I was like, you hate that? I couldn't believe it. Because my whole life right wing media and Republican politicians have been like, of course corporations should get everything and the average American should get nothing and like it. Okay? And you're going to be our indentured servant. You're going to like it. Because if they keep buying up the homes, that is the, the place where we create most wealth for the average American, for the middle class in America. And what they are seeing in private equity is something that is logical, that will help them maximize profit. If they buy all the homes, they create the wealth, they take it instead of the average American and then they make you a renter. And that ties you more into being an indentured servant for corporations. And then they get the rent money, they get the accumulation of wealth from the real estate. Now if we don't have any regulations and we say companies are a good thing, their self interest will eventually lead to the positive results for average American. That would be a dramatic mistake. And that's the mistake we're making right now. And we need the government to look out for us. They're supposed to be our representatives. I know they haven't been for so long that we've forgotten that they're supposed to be our representatives, but we're supposed to send them in to have the power to contain the worst impulses of those corporations. So right now what we should have and we have a populist plank on TYT.com and it's six policies that, that I think almost everyone in the country agrees with. Negotiate drug prices, anti war, I can go on. Right, but one of them is ban private equity from buying residential real estate. So that would be democratic capitalism where you go, no, this is a line you cannot. Thou shall not pass. Because if they take our homes from us, we are forever.

[A]

Yeah. So first of all, I definitely agree that you don't want no regulation. I'm in your dad's camp of there is such a thing as too much and there is such a thing as too little. Totally agree on that. The only Twist in the BlackRock thing though, I also hate the idea of them buying up homes. Would love to see something put in place for that is the bigger beef that I have is BlackRock is simply an aggregator of shareholders. So technically BlackRock doesn't own those things. The shareholders own those things and anybody can be a shareholder of BlackRock. My bigger problem is that 50% of Americans don't own stocks. And so we've created a system where you have to flee money. You can't save your way to success because of money printing. You will literally be punished for saving money, which I think is immoral. Whole nother soapbox. But at a minimum, if you're not teaching people about how to buy stocks when they're in like middle school, high school, just obsessively educating them on how to do that. Index funds, things that are low volatility, long term plays, minimize risk as much as possible. I'm not talking about turning people into day traders then, now it's you're doubly so. Anyway, I don't want to see BlackRock gobble those things up for the same reason. Homes are no longer a grand slam in terms of saving your wealth. But that's again a different conversation. But yeah, it's interesting. The. This is a very interesting conversation because we see so many things the same way but from a slightly different angle, which I love. Let me ask, there's some fun things that I've got to get your take on. You brought up TikTok. What is really going on with TikTok? What, should we ban it? Is it a Chinese spy device? Like how should we be thinking about that?

[C]

No, the campaign against TikTok is 98% bullshit. We definitely should not ban it. It would be a massive violation of the first Amendment. The government has no business doing that. I. The Supreme Court should have never allowed it. I mean, the Supreme Court's so out of control. Like, that's another soapbox, another conversation. I think the Supreme Court has ruined this country, and you'll be surprised if you're right wing to hear me say it's the activist judges that ruin this country. And so, but what you don't realize is that they're activists in on behalf of corporations and they've, they've given them every advantage and the average American, no advantage. So it drives me crazy. Anyway, when it comes to TikTok, they say, oh, we're worried that the Chinese government can get our private information. So we're not worried that Zuckerberg can get our private information because he has the same exact access from Meta and, you know, Instagram, Facebook. So we're not worried that Elon can have our information. He has the same access as TikTok does on X. Right. So wait, are we worried about the private information being in the hands of X, Y or Z, or are we not worried about it? No, that's not what this is about. There's. There's a couple of the real reasons for the TikTok ban. Number one, and this is not speculation and it's not a conspiracy theory. Mitt Romney told Anthony Blinken, and Anthony Blinken agreed. It's on tape, and we've shown it several times on the Young Turks. He said, yeah, the Israelis used to be really good at pr. I don't know what happened. And now, now they're losing the PR battle. So that's why we got to go after TikTok. And I was like, I can't believe he just said it. Okay, so. And there's been, and the ADL put out a statement saying there's all these things that are pro Palestinian and only the small amount that are pro Israel. So TikTok's a real problem. No, brother, that's not a problem. The problem is that Israel's slaughtering the Palestinians and people are upset about it and they're making normal videos and they're showing it. The problem is that you can't control the message anymore and it's driving you freaking crazy. So the real country that is has a much larger factor in TikTok is not China, it's Israel. So, and you have to remember, Netanyahu is a war criminal, despised by the whole world and deeply unpopular everywhere, including in Israel. And our, you know, 80% of our politicians give him standing ovation after standing ovation. Why aipac poured in hundreds of millions of dollars to buy our Congress. Washington is occupied territory. They're not going after TikTok because of China. They're going off tick tock after because of Israel. But that's not the only reason. Secondly, and Scott Galloway made this point, I got it from him, and I think it was a brilliant point. I hadn't thought of it before. There's a huge regulatory overhang over TikTok, meaning that its price is artificially depressed by about 25%. But you could disagree or disagree on the percentage, but you get it. Why? Because the government is constantly threatening to ban it. Once that regulatory overhang is lifted, it's going to go up about 25% in value. That is at a bare minimum, $10 billion. At a bare, bare, bare minimum. Right. So the minute an American corporation or a wealthy American buys it, they make 10, $20 billion overnight. So every American corporation, which again, Washington's occupied territory, they're owned by corporations. Every corporation say, oh yeah, China's a real national security threat. Hey, you guys all do business with China.

[B]

Sh.

[C]

You guys all sell cars and all this stuff and you import stuff. If it's such a national security threat, why are you doing business with them? No, no, no, no, no, no. They gotta sell it. They gotta sell. Who should they sell it to? Me. Yeah, that's what I thought. That's what I thought. So it's a giant scam for some corporation or wealthy person in America to make an unbelievable amount of money. Plus it helps Israel to ban TikTok. So that's the real reasons.

[A]

Now let's say that it was a an Israeli owned company and they were pumping in pro Israel content. Would it make sense to you then to say, hey, this is a foreign national that owns this. We think they're using it to manipulate our youth. Would you then agree, like, yo, we've got to get this out of foreign ownership.

[C]

Wow, what a wild hypothetical where American media companies might be on working on behalf of Israel. Israel. I just can't wrap my head around it. That's every other media company in the country. It's not because they're owned by Israel, it's the group. Think again. Israel is our beloved special ally. Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. That's why. Shut up and give me your money. I got to send it over to Israel, okay? And we've been doing that, and we've now sent $300 billion to Israel. Jesus Christ, when is it enough? So I don't want people to Go down a dark path and blame religion or anything like that and get into conspiracy theories. It's just simple logic. If you allow for complete bribery, you're gonna have complete bribery. And what I can't. I. I'm amazed that other knucklehead countries haven't figured out with the same thing Israel does. You got a Chinese national here, you got a Saudi national here. They're American citizens, right? But they originally came from. Or they just relate, you know, empathize with Saudi Arabia or Peru. Pick a country, right? You just get them because they can give unlimited bribes to American politicians thanks to the Supreme Court. You get to give them $200 million, and then they give the politicians $200 million, and then you own this country. Peru can buy America. Any country can buy America. Israel was just smart enough to do it. So, I mean, I don't hate the player, I hate the game, right? So now to your point, though, to the core of what if a foreign government was doing X, Y or Z? But if people really had that legitimate concern and that was what was driving them, then wouldn't they be concerned about all of the pro Israel money going to buy our actual government? Forget a company that might have access to some of your information. They have access to the entire United States government. They have been bought locks and stock and barrel. So if you actually cared about a foreign influence, all the Russian people, right, The MSNBC and Rachel Mad, all Russia is going to control us. And in 2016, they had 4 million tweets. So I had other problems with Russia and Trump, but I was like, I know they didn't coordinate because Roger Stone tried to find out information about whether the Russians had hacked into Hillary Clinton. If they were coordinating, he wouldn't have tried to find out that information, right? And then the government came in with, oh, they had 4 million. Their propaganda had 4 million impressions on Twitter. I was like, that's Tuesday for me. Like, wow, big Russian interference, right? Meanwhile, is pouring in hundreds of millions of dollars to buy our entire Congress. And it was like, I don't see it. I don't see it. The real problem is Russia. The real problem is China. Now, bullshit. They don't mean a word of it. So if you. But okay, even so you say, all right, what should be, what should we do? Because China does have access to that information, we think, potentially, although their servers are actually in Texas. So, okay, then why don't we have a rule that applies evenly and fairly to all the social media companies? So if you say, hey, the owners of TikTok cannot access this or cannot use the information for that.

[A]

Right.

[C]

Then have it apply to Facebook. Have it apply to YouTube, have it apply to X. Don't tell me no. Everybody else can get your private information, do whatever the hell you like with it, but only TikTok can. Because I'm concerned about China. No. Then do fair and even rules for everyone.

[A]

What if the fair and even rule broke along the lines of if they are a foreign company and we are in, I don't know what standing they would put it in, but I consider us to be in a cold war with China. So I may be simply the person that is totally into that cover story, but when I heard that, I was like, oh, that's actually interesting. I think the next 10 years are really going to be like the 80s with us in Russia. And especially given the weakness of the dollar because of all the printing. China is a pure competitor economically. They are in their own region, probably militarily stronger than we are. Not globally, but in their region. So it seems to me that there is certainly reason to be thoughtful about somebody that can map everybody's face, that can influence them with an algorithm. But I'm not sure where I fall on the TikTok issue. And my whole thinking is all about the China connection. Not. I'm not even thinking about Israel.

[C]

No, I hear you. And look, so I don't want people to get obsessed about Israel. I'm just saying this one of many factors and it shows the hypocrisy. Right. But, but Elon Musk can have the same access and he is the largest donor to the President of the United States. That seems to also be a giant problem. But we say, oh no, since he's an American, the problem disappears. It doesn't really. We're just choosing not to focus on that. We're choosing to focus on tick tock. So on China. I'm not in the same place you are. I'm a realist about China, but I don't think we have to go to a cold war, a hot war. We don't. I don't know why we're constantly talking about the military. Why do we, why don't we just have an economic battle with China? Why do we have to have a military battle with China?

[A]

Hopefully that's all it ever is.

[C]

Yeah, I don't want like, why are we demigoding? Why Chinese Communist Party? They're not communists. They haven't been communist in a long time. Right. So they have centralized planning, but they have these giant corporations that are making tons and tons of money. Everybody's getting rich in China now we got a middle class so that you throw communists in there to rile people up. Oh, they're the evil enemy and stuff. Look, no, they're looking out for their own self interest. They're very good at looking out for their own self interest. We have to be clear eyed about that. And I think a lot of politicians before Trump, and this is one of the things I'll give Trump credit for, he's actually, you know, negotiating on our behalf and he's using our leverage and he's pushing back so that I like and I've been, you know, and I call that out on, on TYT as well. So if you say China comes in and goes, all right, I'm going to give, put these tariffs on you and I'm going to support my industry by pouring in this much money into my industry and then we're going to drive prices down and then we're going to bankrupt you and then we're going to take you over. Well then you do exactly what they do, you mirror image. So I'm not saying don't worry about it. I'm not saying they're not a competitor. I'm not saying we shouldn't respond to their unfair practices. I'm saying why don't we just do the same exact thing back at them without escalating, without talking about the military, without demagoguing and etc. Just kick their ass economically. Right. And, and let's have a real battle. And, and I believe in America. I, I don't, I think in the long run China's not, are not really our top competitor at all. I think. Look, I, maybe this makes me more of a capitalist than, than the average right winger or whatever. The labels aren't that important. But I believe in capitalism and I think centralized planning in the long run is a terrible idea. In the short run, it can be spectacularly successful. As you know, China just showed, with incredible growth in a tiny amount of time. That's what centralized planning is great at. But over time it breeds endless corruption and endless wrong decision because you're not using the wisdom of the crowd. Right? You, you and anytime you have a gatekeeper making decisions, it's always wrong. I wrote an email to my friends in 1998 saying online video will beat television. And that at that point online video barely exists.

[A]

Very prescient.

[C]

And then we started Young Turks to do online video back in 2002. We were the first YouTube partner, longest running Internet show. Why am I telling you that in the context of, of China? Because the reason I had that belief was because I knew that the gatekeepers in entertainment were not very good at their job and that it's. That the wisdom of the crowd would always beat the gatekeepers. And what I realized is in online video, there aren't going to be gatekeepers, especially at least for a long, long time. And the wisdom of the crowd is going to elevate the best hosts, right. And give you the most compelling context. And that turned out to be true. Same thing for China versus America. Their centralized planning might do great in the beginning, but it'll fall apart and their biggest advantage will turn into their biggest disadvantage. Our actual competitor 50 years from now is India. India has enormous energy, enormous entrepreneurial spirit there. It's a beautiful and disastrous chaos, Right? It's got huge upsides, huge downsides within that chaotic energy in India. But India is going to rise up and be bigger than China and be our real competitor. That's my opinion.

[A]

That's going to be interesting. Talk to me about the Sig Heil heard around the world from Elon Musk. How do you read that goofy signal? Dog whistle?

[C]

No. So I don't think he's a Nazi. I don't even think it's a dog whistle. But I, I do think it was intentional. I think it was trolling. It was a spectacular case of trolling. He wanted the attention. Elon has decided, and it's not an necessarily an incorrect decision, that the most valuable commodity in America is attention. And that's why he massively overpaid for X, because he was, he wanted it so bad because he understands it has the mother load of the commodity that he wants attention. And so what are we talking about? After the inauguration, we barely talked about the executive orders. We didn't talk about Trump's speech at all. But we are talking about what Elon did. Okay. And when you troll, you build in plausible deniability. I was touching my heart. Oh, you know, I'm a little awkward. And so here I can prove my credibility because I've defended the right wing actors before when, like Laura Ingram, for example, raised their arms at the RNC and people are like, oh, that looks like a Nazi salute. I'm like, guys, anyone who raises their arm at any kind of angle can look like a Nazi salute. She didn't, she didn't do a Nazi salute. That wasn't even close. So in this case, though, man, he snapped that thing. I mean, that was right out of 1930s Germany. And if that was an accidental autistic moment of exuberance, holy cow, what a coincidence that it turned into something that looks identical to the Sig Heil Nazi salute. Right? So I think what is more logical and likely is that he thought about it and he thought, if I put my heart. In fact, he does it twice if you watch the second version of the clip. So he does it to the crowd. That's the one that everybody sees. And then there's another video where he turns around to the people behind the podium and does it again. And Anna and I disagreed about this on the young troops, but I. The way that I saw it, he didn't put his hand on his heart when he did the second one, and he forgot that he was supposed to do that for his excuse. So after he appointed the second time, then he put his hand on his heart. Right. And so I. It's. I nitpicking that particular part, but overall, I think it was epic trolling. Not in a good way. You don't. Don't do that. You don't need to do that. You don't need to do that. What would you. All right, You've got enough attention, for God's sake. It's enough. Right? So. But I know people get super touchy about it. Oh. And in fact, I said this online. Got attacked by both sides. Okay. Why? Because the right wing tribe says, you said Nazi. Everybody always calls us Nazis. I hate you. This bullshit. He didn't do it. He didn't do it. He was just, oh, my heart, my war hard. It was about, all right, guys, if you believe it, God bless your heart. Okay? And then the left wing said, what do you mean he's not a Nazi? What do you mean? He's just trolling. He's definitely a Nazi. You don't call him a Nazi. You're. You're on the right wing. That's it. We knew it. You love Trump and you're giving Elon an excuse, and you're not calling him a Nazi when everybody knows he's a Nazi.

[A]

That's so interesting to me. To me, it really did just look like this super awkward guy doing, like, heart version of a blown kiss. I. I had no idea. Like, I watched it, didn't even make my radar. Had no idea. And then the next day, saw the hubaloo about it. Very, very fascinating. Our frame of reference controls not only what we look at, but what we see.

[C]

Yeah, Tom, I'll say one last thing about that. No one actually knows. Right. The only person who knows is true. So if you say, and I got into this debate on peers this morning, if you say, hey Cenk, you're reading his mind, but you're also reading his mind.

[A]

No.

[C]

100, right. You're reading. And I'm not saying you in particular, I'm saying the people who think he, that he, he wasn't doing it on purpose for sure. Yeah. They're saying, I assume he had good intent. I assume he didn't mean to do it to get attention and I'm assuming he did it to get attention. But we're both assuming we don't know. We're just going based on our experience, our perspective and what it looked like to us.

[A]

No doubt. Cenk, this has been a lot of fun, man. Thank you so much. Where can people follow you?

[C]

So Young Turks is on almost every platform. TYT is on almost every platform. So we have a 24 hour channel on YouTube, TV, Roku, Samsung, etc, we're obviously on tick tock, Facebook, YouTube. But really the main thing is Young Turks every day, Monday through Friday, 6 to 8pm Eastern. If you want to find an easy way to do it. Young Turks on YouTube, everybody knows that you go there. And at 6:00 Eastern every day we give you the real news. As you can tell from here, we're honest, we pull no punches, agree or disagree. You know, we're not BSing you. And then we, we really care about delivering for our audience. And then our website's tyt.com so that's where we have the populous plank that you can sign on for. That's where you could find out more and be part of our community.

[A]

Awesome, man. Well, thank you for taking the time today, boys and girls. If you haven't already, be sure to subscribe. And until next time, my friends, be legendary. Take care. Peace.

[D]

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