← Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Civil Unrest In Minnesota, Trump's Housing Reform, and New Nutrition Guidelines: Breaking Down the Week's Biggest Stories With Tom Bilyeu and Drew
00:59:42
Tom Bilyeu and Co-Host Drew break down the tragic ICE shooting in Minnesota, the escalating Iranian uprising, and Trump’s bold new housing market proposals—plus the surprising shakeup to America’s food pyramid.
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- [00:01]
Tom
Hey, Sal.
- [00:02]
Drew
Hank.
- [00:03]
Tom
What's going on? We haven't worked a case in years. I just bought my car at Carvana and it was so easy. Too easy. Think something's up? You tell me. They got thousands of options, found a great car at a great price, and it got delivered the next day. It sounds like Carvana just makes it easy to buy your car, Hank. Yeah, you're right. Case closed. Buy your car today on Carvana. Delivery fees may apply. This is pro linebacker TJ Watt, and I'm back with YPB by Abercrombie for another activewear drop. My second co design collection has new shorts and tanks that keep up with all my in season workouts. And their new restore collection is a game changer off the field too, because even pro athletes like me need rest days. Shop YPB by Abercrombie in the app, online and in stores because your personal best is greater than anything. Thank you guys for tuning in. It continues to be a wild string of events. Kind of praying for this to chill. Bad for the show, perhaps, but boy, would it be better for life. Woman was shot to death by an ICE agent as she attempted to flee an altercation with ice. Scott Besson, who was also in Minnesota for the fraud unveiling, if you will, says that there's $600 billion in annual fraud. That's 10% of government spending. Representative Luna has referred Minnesota Governor Walz and Keith Ellison to the DOJ for being complicit in the Somali fraud. Trump says that he's not restrained by international law, only his own morality. But apparently he feels restrained by the military budget as he's aiming to blow it up massively in 2027. It's only going to get wilder. The Iranian uprising continues to escalate as the government cuts off Internet and cell service, but fails to slow the movement. A lot going on there. Trump is taking a shot at reducing housing prices with a bold new plan that I'm very excited to talk to you guys about. And RFK Jr. Finally flips the food pyramid, which in my estimation has been the American government doing its best to. To either intentionally or unintentionally kill the American public. It is crazy.
- [02:25]
Drew
Yeah, we gotta talk about Minnesota, man.
- [02:27]
Tom
We gotta talk about Minnesota.
- [02:28]
Drew
We gotta talk about Minnesota.
- [02:29]
Tom
A tragic game of FAFO unfolded when a woman in Minneapolis was shot dead by an ICE agent when she attempted to flee in her suv. This kind of stuff drives me crazy. Video evidence shows that she may have hit the officer with her vehicle as he opened fire. The Shooting has ignited a national fire firestorm over immigration enforcement, federal power and local control. It happened on Wednesday morning, January 7th. 37 year old Renee Nicole Good, a US citizen and mother of three, was shot and killed by the ICE agent during a large scale operation in Minneapolis. The operation targeted alleged fraud in the Somali American community and involved over 2000 agents and had nothing to do with Good. Apparently Good was simply someone who hates ICE and was allegedly attempting to alert locals to the raid. Now for my money, it is obvious that Good should not have tried to flee and it's obvious that the officer should not have shot her. But apparently the agent that shot her, identified as Jonathan Ross, had previously been hit by another person fleeing an immigration raid. He got his arm pinned to the vehicle and was hospitalized after being dragged by by the car for roughly 100 yards back in June of 25. This whole thing is so unnecessarily tragic and is a result of the escalating tensions between Americans. If people want to know what a modern civil war looks like, it looks like this shit. Barricades have gone up in Minneapolis creating autonomous zones reminiscent of the Chaz in Seattle. That didn't fucking work out. These aren't going to work out. Everyone right now is picking a side and everyone is so convinced that they're right. They believe that the side of the political aisle that they didn't vote for is completely illegitimate to the point that they will obstruct and resist and put themselves in harm's way. Now listen, we have a second amendment for a reason. And that reason is to resist a tyrannical government. So if Good felt like she was prepared to pay with her life to resist the government, so be it. But that means that she, and I'm sure many others have completely given up on democracy. And I for one do not think that we are anywhere near that. This whole thing is just absolutely heartbreaking. After watching the video like a dozen times, I do not think the officer should have shot. But it is ultra high risk to flee in a vehicle when federal agents have their gun drawn and are surrounding your car. What are you doing? Put your hands up. Comply. Use the media, use the political system to have your voice be heard. If people really think we have already crossed a line where you need to resist the federal government, we are in for a world of hurt. You don't have to look far around the world to see how bad things can get. So I would say this is a time everybody needs to calm down. Now I get it. This incident is going to be Hotly debated for years to come. But federal officials, including Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and President Trump, say the shooting was self defense. They claim Good weaponized her vehicle to run over Ross. And I'm telling you, looking at the video footage, it's going to be easy to make that case. It'll be debated, but. But there's enough there. They're even going so far as to call it an act of interference or even domestic terrorism. Local witnesses characterize the story differently, of course. They say Good pose no immediate threat. I would agree with that. The street was icy and her movement seemed like an attempt to leave. That seems very obvious to me rather than an attack. Experts note that conflicting orders were being given by the officers surrounding the vehicle. That's going to add to the confusion. They were reaching into the vehicle without clear cause. That can escalate situations unnecessarily. This all just seems like one big clusterfuck, but this is exactly how these things get out of control. Now we're going to see how intense the fallout gets. But protests have erupted nationwide, with thousands marching in the rain, chanting against ICE and some even barricading streets. If you guys haven't heard the stuff coming out of New York, we have a clip. We'll play it in a second. But calling for Kristi Noem to be hung, saying, save a life, kill ice. I mean, it is escalating in a very dark way. Minnesota Governor Tim Walls has been vocal, disputing the federal narrative as propaganda, and he's calling it verifiably false. He called the ICE presence a reckless mobilization that's not keeping people safe and demanded state involvement in the probe. When the FBI took over the investigation and cut out the Minnesota Bureau of Criminal Apprehension, Walls expressed deep doubt about a fair outcome, saying, it feels very, very difficult that we will get a fair outcome. He even put the National Guard on notice as a precaution and urged the Trump administration to leave Minnesota alone and give us a break. This is a dangerous escalation, boys and girls. Wall says his stance is about protecting his state, ensuring transparency, but many see it as intentional misdirection from the massive fraud that is in fact being perpetrated in his state. And it is entirely possible that he is involved in in it in some way. We will see that needs to play out in a court of law, but is not looking good. And in a divided country, words like what he's speaking can be interpreted not only as stoking division, but many are accusing Walls of full blown insurrection. We're going to follow the story closely as the investigation unfolds into whether or not this was a justified shooting. Right now you've got VP JD Vance saying that not only is this justified, but that the ICE agent is protected by absolute immunity because he was act acting in service of his role as a federal agent. Now, from what I can tell, doing some research, that is an overstatement to say the least. Legally speaking, absolute immunity is a known term and it is a total shield from lawsuits or charges, usually for high level officials like presidents or judges, as we saw in the recent Supreme Court ruling. For federal law enforcement agents like ICE agents, it's what's known as qualified immunity, which is very different than absolute immunity. And that means that Ross is protected from civil suits if his actions didn't violate a clearly established right that any reasonable officer would know. In criminal cases, the supreme the Supremacy Clause can block state prosecutions if the act was necessary and proper to federal duties, but it is not automatic or absolute. So experts like legal scholar Steve Vladic is pushing back on Vance's claims on X, saying that his use Vance's use of absolute is misleading because state charges from Minnesota could still happen if evidence shows that excessive force was used. Former prosecutor Dave Ehrenberg told CNN that qualified immunity might hold in court. But calling it absolute ignores nuances like video evidence of conflicting commands being given by the different agents that were surrounding Good's vehicle and that there was no clear imminent threat. No charges have been filed yet, but the DOJ is reviewing.
- [09:53]
Drew
I want to jump over to Jessica Tarlov on Fox News where she actually broke down what immunity meant and kind of reading what is a justified shooting.
- [10:01]
Jessica Tarlov
So she's in such severe crisis that she can be polite in traffic and say you go ahead and then you hear her actually audibly saying, I'm pulling out, right? She, she signals exactly what she's doing. She starts to move forward and everyone should go and watch. The New York Times has about three and a half minutes of footage coming from every angle. And this is what they brought up to President Trump when they were meeting with him last. He said, you know, the officer, the brave officer. And after he tweeted I I, it's hard to believe that the officer is alive when he walked away completely unscathed. We can see that on video as well. But the footage contradicts the administration on almost every level of what they've said. Renee Good waving the vehicle by the officer was to the side of the car when he drew the gun. He leaned over the hood for the first shot. You could see that on the angle too, that he fired two more shots at arm's length on a 90 degree angle. And it almost doesn't matter actually what she was doing because she didn't have another weapon. According to DOJ policy, which they should be in compliance with, it says deadly force may not be used solely to prevent the escape of a fleeing suspect. Firearms must be discharged at a moving vehicle unless a person is threatening deadly force by other means than the vehicle and no other means of defense exist, including moving out of the path. He could clearly move out of the path because he did, and that's why he was unscathed in this. I don't know why. It wasn't good enough for Secretary Noem or the President or the Vice President to say this is a tragedy.
- [11:30]
Tom
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- [15:19]
Drew
Does this kind of change your interpretation of it or have you seen my.
- [15:23]
Tom
Interpretation of this at all? That is my interpretation of this. He should not have fired. That is so obvious. Watching this over and over and over. Now the argument's going to be made. Listen, this was a dude that was drugged down the road in another incident just like this. So he knows how deadly this can be. And I get that. And this is one of those things where th. This is a tragedy. I am not clocking this guy as just somebody who's out here looking for any excuse to shoot somebody. Now, look, investigate the guy. Maybe he does have a long standing history of using his firearm inappropriately, in which case him go to jail. But watching the video and knowing that this is somebody who's been in another altercation with a vehicle like this, got his arm pinned, they drug him 100 yards down the road. I get why this guy would uniquely think, no, no, no, this really is a weapon. She's weaponizing her vehicle against me. So my critique to her is, first of all, this is a federal agency. Once you decide that you're going to stand in defiance of a federal agency, which, by the way, as citizens, we should all reserve the right to stand in defiance of a federal agency. But we need to understand what that means. You are saying, I'm willing to put my life on the line and I believe this thing is so justified and the government is so unjust that I'm prepared to die for this. And I'm just saying I think she misread that situation so grotesquely that. Have your voice heard a thousand percent. Use the political machinery a thousand percent. You still live in a country that has freedom of speech. You are going to have your opportunity to say the things that you need to say, but as a mother of three, to put your life at risk at this stage of what is early innings, from where I'm sitting, of an actual civil war in slow motion. It's not time. It's not time. Look, there are lines that the government could cross where I'd be like, yup, this is what the Second Amendment is for. I'm just saying, we're not there yet. Democracy has not broken down yet. Do I get nervous? Yes. But, man, this is the kind of tragedy that plays out when you're like, this is the moment. This is where I'm like, I don't have to listen to you. I can drive my car off if I want to. I'm just like, listen, I've been roughed up by the police. I know what that moment is like. I know the adrenaline. I'm sure I've told this story before, but Speedrun was in a friend's apartment. She was gone. I was alone. Police knock on the door. They say they got a 911 call from inside the apartment. I know that can't be true because I'm alone. Nonetheless, they. They don't battering ram the door down, but I tried to, like, peek out to see if it was really cops. They smash the door, send me flying, grab me, throw me up against the bar, hands behind my backs, guns drawn. You better hope that everybody in this apartment's okay. Like, the whole nine. And what did I do? I complied the shit out of their commands. I was like, listen, I know they're wrong. And, yes. Does it hurt to be thrown around, have your arms yanked? Is it scary to have guns drawn? Yes. But do you fucking comply? Yes. You deal with, like, whatever this is going to be down the Road. If I'm like, hey, everything they did was wrong and bad, and I'm going to pursue it, but Jesus, man, you don't drive off. So, yeah, this is where people. You turn the engine off, you chill, and it's like, if you're getting conflicting reports, keep your hands visible and empty. And so this one is just stupid. It's stupid all around. Clearly, from where I'm sitting, a bad shot.
- [18:59]
Drew
I think, first off, it's a tragedy because there's a child that's now orphaned. And as a father, I empathize with that. 110 seconds.
- [19:05]
Tom
And even if she didn't have kids, it's a loss of life.
- [19:07]
Drew
I just want to. It's important to start there, though, because I think a temporary situation has now led a permanent. This kid's life has changed forever. Now, that's the first thing. Before we even get into the minutiae of the video. The second thing is, too oftentimes we. We expect the victim to be more composed than the trained professional. It is your job. You signed up. You got the 50k signing bonus. You decided you wanted to become a part of ICE Agents, you decided you want to go and raid neighborhoods. That's completely fine. You have that jurisdiction. But it's also your responsibility to deal with your ptsd. It's your responsibility to deal with your itchy, chinga finger. It doesn't matter what video you show me. It doesn't matter what angle it is to kill somebody who's an American citizen while you are an immigration enforcement officer. Doesn't make sense. All right, from one civil unrest to another, let's jump over to Iran.
- [19:58]
Tom
Iran. Iran. There was a. I thought you were mispronouncing Elon.
- [20:03]
Drew
Sorry.
- [20:04]
Tom
What's he doing? All right, so, yeah, thanks. Continue to pop off in Iran. There have been major escalations to Iran's revolutionary uprising over the last couple of days. If you guys have been paying attention, it is wild. As of today, demonstrations have hit over 340 spots across now all 31 provinces, including major cities like Tehran, Isfahan, and Zihadan, if that's how you pronounce that last one. The protests have exploded in scale, intensity, and spread out geographically, turning what was already super serious unrest into the most widespread challenge to the regime in years. And if you're just now catching up on what's going on in Iran. The uprising began December 28th over skyrocketing prices. Hey, it's all about the economy. Currency collapse, general economic pain. That is always what's what pushes these things forward? And it's all hit a tipping point, roughly Thursday, January 8th. So marches now have filled the streets. Buildings and vehicles have been burned, and people are chanting Death to Khomeini openly. I even saw a photo of women with their hair down, totally uncovered hair, lighting cigarettes with photos of the Supreme Leader. That is not something you see every day. The exiled Crown Prince, Reza Pahlavi, he called for a coordinated chance at 8pm because he wanted to see if people were going to back him or not. This was on January 8th. It drew massive turnouts and obviously it came with huge risks and people still did it. The regime has responded as you would expect. And a nationwide Internet and phone blackout that kicked off on Thursday evening, and as far as I know, is still continuing. Now people are trying to smuggle in. Xlink.
- [21:47]
Drew
Wow. Starlink.
- [21:48]
Tom
Starlink.
- [21:49]
Drew
Thank you.
- [21:50]
Tom
They're trying to smuggle those in so that people can use Starlink to get the footage. We'll see how well that goes. But there is some footage coming out because of that right now. Security forces have reportedly ramped up and the use of lethal force recently. The Thursday ended up being the bloodiest day so far. And reports confirmed that live ammo is being used and raids are being conducted on hospitals that are treating wounded protesters. Rights groups like HR ANA and Iran Human Rights and others have put the death toll somewhere around 42 to 45 people since things popped off. There have also been more than 2,000 arrests. And on Friday, the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Ali Khomeini, broke his silence, slamming protest as vandals and rioters backed by foreign enemies. He specifically called out Trump by name, vowing that they will not retreat and warning Trump that he's going to be overthrown. Just like other arrogant leaders, the judiciary chief promised decisive maximum punishment without leniency for the people protesting. But despite all of that, the protests continue to persist. Now, where this gets really interesting is if you zoom out to the bigger picture. What's happening in Iran right now is. Is happening at a crazy time, given the potential implications to America's fight to keep the petrodollar firmly in place. Isolate China as much as possible. Iran falling right now is a big deal because they're obviously a top oil producer and they've continued to supply China despite US sanctions. So you had Venezuela and Ch. Venezuela and Iran, I believe, making up something like 70% of. Of China's oil supply. So if the regime were to fall now through a legitimate uprising and not the US Coming in and around or even just get significantly weakened. Oil flows could slow or even halt in the short term, which despite global prices, it would force buyers to lean harder on the US And US Friendly suppliers, which obviously is good for us, like Saudi Arabia. And this would bolster the petrodollar and put some wind into the US Sales at a time where we risk overextending ourselves. So the timing of all this stuff is absolutely fascinating. Now, China buys about 1 to 1.5 million barrels a day of cheap Iranian oil at discounts of up to $10 below market. The unrest in Iran has already cut exports by roughly 20% in the last week. So if it drags on, China could end up losing its supply from both Venezuela and Iran in quick succession, causing a spike in their energy costs. Now, given that they're already being forced to pump historic amounts of money into their economy just to keep it going, that would be a way far cry from ideal. Now, odds are that Beijing is hoping things settle down in Tehran nice and quickly as a regime change could end the sweetheart deals that they have and force China towards pricier, more transparent markets. And losing Iran as an ally would also isolate Moscow further and weaken the anti west bloc that has been building for years. But that's all speculation at this point. So definitely do not want to get out over our skis here as just because Iran right now is unstable doesn't mean that it won't go right back to business as usual in the near future. Because when a regime falls, you never know who's going to replace it. Power vacuums are never filled the way that you want them to be. They can be filled with somebody that's just as bad or somebody that's even worse. So only time is going to tell on that. But given Iran's role as the largest global purveyor of power terrorism, there's certainly some cause for optimism right now. But we're gonna have to watch and see how this plays out.
- [25:38]
Drew
Yeah, there were some unverified reports that Kanamahi, the leader. I tried.
- [25:45]
Tom
Oh Khomeini.
- [25:46]
Drew
Khomeini.
- [25:47]
Tom
It's. And we're mispronouncing it. I think there's a like Khomeini eat or something like that at the end, but I'm not even gonna try. So Khomeini will do for us.
- [25:55]
Drew
Yeah, there's unverified reports that he's like fleet and went to Moscow. Trump has it doesn't seem true given.
- [26:01]
Tom
What the things he's saying. So yeah.
- [26:04]
Drew
What's just like how he laid it out with us. With the ICE situation, what's kind of the best case scenario that happens in Iran versus the worst case scenario?
- [26:10]
Tom
Oh, Iran goes back to being a US friendly democracy, that much like the uae, Saudi have entered the modern world and realize we've got to diversify away from oil. This is all going to be about commerce, not religion. They become secular again and yeah, they start selling oil in a way that is above board, ideally for us, that's friendly to the US so that they join people sanctioning. If we put sanctions on somebody that they adhere to, that would be wonderful. I doubt we're ever going to get that far, but that would be incredible. So let's say even if they didn't do something that was specifically pro America, just seeing them go to back to being a secular democracy would be incredible. So we will see if they're able to pull that. We'll see if they have the will to do that, because I don't know that they do. And they've been a tyrannical religious government now for almost 50 years. So that's, I mean, you could easily clock that at three generations, maybe four, given how fast generations seem to be speeding up now that have been raised where it's like they don't even remember what it was like to be a secular government. Like, I remember even me and I was technically, I think I was alive or no, maybe it happened just before I was born. But when you see images from before the revolution did look like an American city, it's crazy. Women were dressed consistent with the Western ideals of the time. And so now to see like how much they've clamped down, like, wowza. It's crazy.
- [27:49]
Drew
Yeah. And then worst case, you know, Russia or China, somebody gets involved or ends.
- [27:53]
Tom
Up, worst case is, yeah, you just get another religious despot that they go and they kill as many of the protesters as they can find. Or even Kanye just remains in power, but now he's pissed and they kill a bunch of people, jail a bunch of people, and you've got another 30 to 50 years of tyrannical Islamic rule. And they continue to be the biggest purveyors of global terrorism. And they continue to strengthen the China, Russia, anti Western bloc. They become a continued problem for Israel. Think what you will about Israel. So yeah, that would be the catastrophe. And if you get somebody that replaces him that's even more aggressive, which there's nobody on my radar that that would be, but that obviously would not be ideal.
- [28:41]
Drew
That'll be a negative spiral. I Mean, it's one of those things where we talk about protests and we talk about political unrest, and then we go across the. Like, across the sea and see some of these other countries and like, oh, no, they're like, really protesting, protesting.
- [28:54]
Tom
So this is the argument. So when. Whenever I give a black pill on America, and this was in my conversation with Will Kane yesterday, this is one of the things that he's saying is like, where are you gonna go?
- [29:04]
Drew
Yeah.
- [29:05]
Tom
And I always am traumatized when people respond like that, because smart money will find the pockets. And when you look at what Warren Buffett is saying, where he's like, I'm going to diversify away from the U.S. cool. Does he stay till his dying day in Omaha? Yeah, probably. But when you've got, like. Let me give you a real stat. Out of the UK, in the UK right now, the United Kingdom, 3,000 new people enter or go on welfare every day. And every day, the UK loses 45 millionaires due to emigration, meaning they're just leaving. So somehow people tell themselves the narrative that because America, let's say, is still the safest, that we're still the most trustworthy, that people still trust us. There's a very big difference between being the least shitty and being awesome. And we are transitioning rapidly away from being awesome into being the least shitty by a little bit, I guess, maybe. But it's like, that's. You don't. I brought this stat up to Will Cain and he did not seem bothered. And I'm like, whoa. So we've gone from in the late 90s, these are approximations, but they're very, very close. We've gone from like, 72% of all global trade being in dollars to now it's like 58%. And so some people here then go, oh, we're still the bulk of world trade. I look at that and go, bro, you've slipped by, like, whatever, 18 points. I don't think it's quite that many, but you've slipped by a lot. And you can't turn a blind eye to that. It's not like you slipped and now you're holding, you're still declining and you're still making bad choices. And in fact, you're making those bad choices faster than ever before, unless all Trump's craziness actually ends up paying off and we keep growing and blah, blah, blah. But as of right now, today, I would not cash in on that, especially given that it looks like he's going to lose the midterms. So it's like all of this stuff is. It is a weakening America. And so acting as if, like, let me say it this way, I was asked the other day, God bless the person, a hundred dollar super chat. And basically they just wanted me to say everything is going to be okay. It is very easy for me to tell you at the individual level, everyone, you're going to be fine. If you're here and you're paying attention to your finances and you're not overly sentimental and you just say, where do I need to put my money to make sure that I'm okay, yeah, you're going to be fine. There will be opportunities somewhere in the world. And the fact that so many countries are in trouble at the same time means that America isn't going to immediately crumble by any stretch of the imagination. But you start getting enough people like Warren Buffett going, I have to diversify away from America. And you're going to get other people diversifying away from America. I am now looking at my portfolio and saying how much more? I've already diversified away from America to a certain degree, but how much more can I do that? So, yeah, maybe some people are fine. As long as the decline feels managed and slow, they're okay. I'm not that guy. So the individual is going to be fine. But as a country, we are moving in the wrong direction and I think people should be worried about that. We're hitting pause for a moment, but there's plenty more ahead, so don't go anywhere. When temperatures drop, your wardrobe either works or it doesn't. But premium materials aren't just about luxury. They're functional requirements. Mongolian cashmere, Italian leather wool coats that actually keep you warm. That's performance gear. I ordered a Mongolian cashmere sweater from Quince as a gift last month. When it arrived, I was very impressed. Super soft, high quality. Exactly what you'd expect from luxury cashmere, except it was $50 instead of $400. Quint cuts out the middlemen and traditional markups. 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- [35:59]
Drew
Foreign.
- [36:08]
Tom
Thanks for staying tuned. Now let's get back to it. All right, well, the good news is that Trump actually is trying to put money in Americans pockets to make sure that he doesn't lose the midterms. So finally someone is doing something to address at least one of the structural forces that are driving housing prices up. And I'm going to stand up and clap on this one. Trump recently said on True Social that he will be immediately taking steps to block large institutional investors like private equity firms and banks from purchasing additional single family homes. I think he's been watching the Tom Billy show live and he heard Drew make that pitch because Drew said that like episode two or something, he called on Congress to actually turn that into a law emphasizing people live in homes, not corporations.
- [37:01]
Drew
I actually said that too, quote unquote. But I'll leave that alone. I'll leave that alone.
- [37:05]
Tom
Hit that subscribe button. Hit that subscribe button. You heard it here first. All right. Trump framed it as a way to revive the American dream, noting that for too long buying a Home was the ultimate goal. Sort of. And understanding why that's a good headline but not the real underlying truth is going to be important. We'll get to that in a minute. But skyrocketing inflation and costs have priced out families. Very true. Forcing more into renting. Very true. Now, needless to say, merely telling investors that they can't buy homes does not solve inflation, which is really the problem. But it's at least a step in the right direction. I do want to applaud him for that. Trump teased that he'll have more details on additional housing and affordability proposals in his upcoming speech at Davos in two weeks. So stay tuned for that. No executive order has dropped yet, so we'll see. But the post tanked stocks for firms like Blackstone.
- [37:59]
Drew
Blackstone.
- [37:59]
Tom
Drew is feeling good. They're down 9%. It's wild. And other companies that are also involved in the space are down. For people that do not understand the impact that institutional investors are having on housing prices, the context goes like this. Institutional buyers like Blackstone, JP Morgan, Apollo, they come in, they've spent years scooping up tens of thousands of homes, especially since the 2008 crash. This is where you buy. When there's blood in the streets and people are panicking, you actually get things at a discount. Now these guys leverage our money. Basically, people that buy through them, they leverage that. To go and buy all these houses, they buy in bulk, often with cash. Then they renovate them and rent them out for steady profits. All makes sense. It's a great investment. I understand why they do it. But the practice jacks up prices, reduces inventory for first time buyers, and turns neighborhoods into corporate landlord zones. Supporters argue it adds rental options. True, it stabilizes markets in the way that cartels stabilize markets, sure. But housing is the only asset that people understand intuitively. And in an inflationary environment, you have to own assets. It is not optional. You must. You cannot both have an unbalanced budget driving up inflation and housing prices that are out of reach. This is exactly how you create the catastrophic K shaped, I can't get ahead economy that we have now. This is the thing that's driving populism now. Trump's move aligns with this campaign promises on inflation and cost of living relief and is especially well timed given that the midterms are coming and polls show that housing is a top voter concern. And no wonder, as median home prices hit $400,000 last year, up 50% in just five years in some areas, while wages continue to lag. If implemented this could free up roughly a hundred thousand plus homes annually for families, potentially cooling prices by call it 5 to 10% in hot markets. Though experts say supply shortages from zoning and building regs, and I agree with this, are a much bigger concern. We should be focusing there as well. So we'll see if there are any downsides to this that could say, spook investors, slow new rental supply, or even just face legal challenges as government overreach. I have to admit, I am conflicted. It's like I don't want a bunch of executive orders. I just want deregulation that allows the market to do what the market's going to do. So a bit of emotional conflict for me on this one. But in the big picture, when you're in a populist moment, at least this is a swing that you can expect from a populist to reduce wealth inequality. And we've got to do things to reduce wealth inequality. So while not the method that I would propose to get this done, I get why people have been calling for this. And it's better than doing nothing. So.
- [41:10]
Drew
And then also asterisk, he just approved the $200 million bond purchase.
- [41:15]
Tom
I don't know if you said, yeah, so I did. So looking at mortgages and saying that he's going to be buying up hundreds of millions of dollars in mortgages. Again, that isn't the game. It's QE by another name. So you'll forgive me if that one I don't like.
- [41:32]
Drew
Erica, what's up?
- [41:34]
Tom
Yeah, so this is the.
- [41:38]
Drew
Yeah, this is the tweet that he said Biden ignored the housing market and instead was immersed with high crime, open borders, runaway inflation, and the Afghanistan disaster and the military that he left in chaos and confusion. Everything was broken. But I, as President of the United States, have already fixed it. Now I'm giving special attention to the housing market because I choose not. Because I chose not to sell Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac in my first term. A truly great decision and against the advice of the quote unquote experts, is now worth many times that amount, an absolute fortune, and now has $200 billion in cash. Because of this, I am instructing my representatives to buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds. This will drive mortgage rates down, monthly payments down, and make the cost of owning a home more affordable. Is one of the many steps in restoring affordability, something the Biden administration absolutely destroyed. We are bringing back the American dream that was destroyed by the last administration. Make America great again.
- [42:24]
Tom
I like the emphasis on the all caps there that's like an SNL skit or something. Yeah.
- [42:30]
Drew
Okay, so between Blackstone getting kicked out, institutional investors getting kicked out, the 200 million, the $200 billion mortgage bond buy, how do you think the housing market is going to shape that?
- [42:43]
Tom
I, so this is just qe. So that one I don't like and I don't know this, but I worry that this could, I'm thinking out loud, this is very dangerous. But I know lurking in the background is a bunch of insolvency at the level of the banks. And so if he's looking at that and going, okay, we're going to start driving the cost of houses down, that's going to make these mortgages less attractive. So I could be creating a problem for local banks that are holding these mortgages. So let me go in and buy these up to avoid some down the road insolvencies. So again, this is just money printing. This is just qe. So that one I'm, I'm not getting behind doing things to address the structural forces. Yes. I don't love a populist attempt at this by going in and telling people you can't do this. But we've talked previously, you presented something very similar to this. I think my take on it was let them buy it, but just jack up the taxes that they have to pay. Like, you know, yeah. As they go. House one, no big deal, house two, more expensive. House three, more, more, more. So that they are able to participate in something that is clearly a good investment because remember, they're doing this on behalf of people in the stock market. So it's, that's not my ideal way to do this with the top down control. My ideal way to do this would be to reduce nonsensical legislation that is making housing impossible to add to the supply. Like you want to like deal with this at the supply level. Let, let the most local person make this decision. And that's going to be a person who's financially incentivized to get it right in a local market to say I want to build five houses instead of one. And by doing that, you unleash the power of capitalism. A game he obviously knows well. But I just think he loves telling people what to do. And so he gets so turned on by the idea that I can just tell them you can't do this anymore. So yeah, it's, I, I don't love that. And it's not going to have the great long term consequences, just really address the structural problem. So I'd prefer he do it in a different way, but it is better than nothing. So it's one of those where it's like, man, I'll take what I can get. At this point, it's like, we need to make housing affordable. But I don't want anyone to think that I'm suddenly confused about the principles at work here. It's just in an imperfect system, sometimes you got to take what you can get.
- [45:09]
Drew
Yeah, he's getting a lot of criticism. A lot of people are saying it's not going to work. It's not going to matter.
- [45:14]
Tom
The reason he cured cancer, people would be like, you know, they'd had find a reason to hate it.
- [45:19]
Drew
Yeah. The Blackstone institutional investors thing, though, I'm excited about, because that 500, 600,000, it seems like a small number in the grand totality. You know, there's 25 million houses in America, but it's one of those things that in certain markets, I don't think people realize how much institutional investors took over. So there's certain markets in Phoenix where there are six blocks owned by institutional bankers. Certain market in my hometown in Willingboro in New Jersey, literally, there's a whole park that, like, out of the 20 houses on that block, 14 were owned at one time. This was peak 2020. So probably some of those got sold. But they have made strategic investments in certain neighborhoods. So I think.
- [45:56]
Tom
I think they own something like 2% of all homes.
- [45:59]
Drew
It's crazy. So just. Just them leaving. We're. We're not going to see every, you know, market affected, but there's going to be certain markets that the price are going to drop substantially. It's kind of like what happened in Texas, but ultimately to solve this. You're right. Scott Galloway said this at the end of last year. We just need to buy. We need. Just need to build more, like, houses, period. Like, this is more supplies.
- [46:18]
Tom
Where. Oh, God, it. It's so gross, because it really is. NIMBYism.
- [46:24]
Drew
Yeah.
- [46:25]
Tom
Where so NIMBYism for people that haven't heard that before, not in my backyard. So it's a thing that you want done. You just don't want it done in your neighborhood. But when everybody says that, then we stay in the position that we're in. And so it's like, ah, I. It really drives me crazy. But I get it. People are pursuing their own economic interests. But you, at the end of the day, you don't want regulatory capture, not even on the part of an average citizen who just happens to be a homeowner. It's like, you really have to look at the health of your country and say, listen, it is because they are economically illiterate. When I really started looking at the problem and I was like, why do people bang on about housing? I'm like, there's so many cheaper, easier assets. Like, a house is like the biggest pain in the ass.
- [47:07]
Drew
You.
- [47:07]
Tom
You have to pay property tax in most places and you've got to upkeep and all that. It's more like a forced savings account. And I was like at one point telling people like, you probably shouldn't buy a house, like, it's not a great place to lock up your money. And then I was like, but wait a second. Most people are never going to understand the stock market, but they understand a house and they can live in a house and they can form memories in a house. Like, when I think about how differently my wife views a house versus me, like, for me, it's like, yeah, it's cool and I love it. Don't get me wrong. But I view it as a nest egg. I view it as a place that it's an investment. It's going to go up in value over time, presumably. And for her, it's a nest. Like, this is her home. And like, she has real emotional reactions to it based on being her home. I don't. So then I was like, oh, my God. So it's even like in a heterosexual relationship, you're going to get pressure from your wife to do it. So now it's like you've got this perfect thing that's an asset that forces you to save money, that keeps up with inflation at a minimum, and you're going to get pressure in a traditional heterosexual relationship to do it anyway. So I was like, damn. Yeah, you really do, like, need to pay special attention to that one asset class because people get it. So in an inflationary environment, you can't, you can't let houses become unaffordable.
- [48:27]
Drew
Yeah. And we have to pay close attention to inflation because on the other side, Trump has also bolstered the pentagon budget from 1 trillion to 1.5.
- [48:36]
Tom
This is wild.
- [48:37]
Drew
I want to be clear.
- [48:38]
Tom
This hasn't passed or anything, but this is what he's pushing for.
- [48:40]
Drew
Yeah. And this was Tucker Carlson's response to it.
- [48:43]
Tom
The President announced that he is hiking the pentagon budget from 1 trillion to 1.5 trillion. Just announced that. Why? Well, it's hard to know without asking him. He'll explain. But big picture, obviously, that's the kind of budget that a country that anticipates a global or regional war has for its military. There's no other reason to do that. That's not a peacekeeping. Pause it. He's right. It's not a peacekeeping thing, I really think so. There are two things at play right now. You are in Thucydides trap. Everybody needs to just embrace that. So China's on the rise. We're on the decline. The odds that. The odds that we end up at war is 75%. So looking at just historicals, that's the number. It's not unavoidable, but the odds are not with us. But there's another thing at play here, which is Trump dropped some bombs on Fordow and that worked. He was like, damn, that was cool. I love the way that made me feel. Then he goes up and he negotiates. Negotiates, Negotiates with Maduro. Maduro doesn't give him what he wants. And like, imagine Drew, you're in a business negotiation and like, you're really trying to be nice. You're trying to like, just get it done. And like, no, it's a good deal for both of us. Like, we're gonna make this work. And then they don't do it. And you're like, all right, fuck em. You kidnap them and you take they shit. So he's just like, I've got this card in my back pocket that they know while I'm negotiating. And sometimes I'm gonna be like this. Like, he just pulls open his coat and like the little card is just sticking up just a little bit. Like, like you would show your gun in your hol or your belt. And he's just like, oh, I really like this. And if this is what it feels like at 900 billion, what does this feel like at 1.5 trillion? Then I'm like, dude, oh, you don't.
- [50:38]
Drew
Want to give us Greenland? Okay, I'll be right back.
- [50:40]
Tom
I'm going to roll down the street to Davos in a hovercraft just to be like, I can. I got $1.5 trillion. You guys think you've got like some hard hitting motherfuckers. No, no, no. Like, we will roll up on you in the dead of night. We will fucking burrow in here from the fucking core of the earth and get you wherever the fuck we want. Because that's how the military rolls. In fact, boys and girls, fuck Jewish space lasers. We got American space lasers. We're coming in hard like that.
- [51:13]
Drew
We better.
- [51:14]
Tom
Dude, that is, I guarantee, in the dead of night, when he is like, Just slowly fondling his, his unit. He's thinking of space lasers and fucking what he can do with that budget. His unit, the hovercraft. Oh yeah, a thousand percent, bro. A thousand percent. That, that is where he goes. He's. Yeah, like it's wild. So 1.5.
- [51:40]
Drew
Quiet as it kept. That's what I was looking for. Could we throw this up? Russia rejected the US president's Trump 20 point peace plan to end the war in Ukraine. So after the peace talk, summits happened. Russia, this kind of has been silent because all, everything else has been going on, but they just requested, they just rejected the peace plan. So that 1.5. Maybe some of that money goes to Europe, maybe that some of that money goes to the front lines of Ukraine, Russia. How Trump is, I don't know which side it will go to, but you.
- [52:06]
Tom
Know, that is way too accurate, Drew. He is going to use that wherever he feels he needs to from a negotiating position. Now listen, all jokes aside, I, not all of it is bad in terms of dealing with Thucydides trap. Making sure that you draw lines around the Western hemisphere, making sure that people understand that you mean business, knowing that Europe may not be the ally that you were hoping it was going to be in the future, knowing that you need to modernize your military, all of that stuff, that your sanctions are only going to work as you are as well as you're able to enforce them. Look, they, they are the moves of a dying empire that no longer has seduction on its side, that no longer can get cooperation without coercion. So it's horrible. I really hate to see it, but it's like the only thing worse would be not admitting that that's where you're at. And so the, the problem is if he does it through money printing, this is horrific. You, you just, you have to balance the budget. And so Thucydides trap or not, you have to balance your budget. And I know that people will be confused and they won't understand that that money is just going to come directly out of everyone's pocket. So we are all going to pay for this because it's going to be done by debasing the currency. And you know, look, our audience understands that, but unfortunately the vast majority of Americans don't. So you're going to get a lot of people that I don't even know that he's going to be able to get this passed, to be honest with you. But if he can get people on his side on it, they won't understand what it's going to do to them.
- [53:41]
Drew
Copy that. I want to speed run this next topic really quick because this was, you know, as the, so much as the quest Nutrition, founder of an early unicorn in the food space, somebody who was fought against big government when it comes to nutrition and food and what's best for human health. How does the new food pyramid. It's not on there. How does the new food pyramid impact you? What was your initial reactions when you, when you heard about it?
- [54:05]
Tom
So this is incredible. I could not be happier about this. So there is a reality to be faced which is that you are having a biological experience and whether God, whether the simulation, whatever this universe runs on rules and your cells react to food. So this is why it drives me absolutely bananas when people just talk about Tom. Being obese is purely a calorie problem. And the thing is, from the perspective of thermodynamics, they are correct. You're not going to get fat if you're not overeating. There was not a single obese person at the camps in Auschwitz. Right? Nice and simple. I don't care what disease you had. You can give them whatever medication you want. No one is going to be obese if you give them no calories. It's not possible. But at the same time, your body is a chemical processing plant and chemicals can react in weird ass ways. And so you can get people to say, produce additional heat and that will burn additional calories. You can give people substances that will cause the fat to not be absorbed. I mean we know all of these things. So the body is an incredibly complex system. And our food that we've been giving people already has been engineered and is doing weird things to the body. But it's also, you are what you eat. Your cells are made of the substances that you consume. So if you're consuming a bunch of plastic, you're gonna have a problem. So when you tell people to eat a whole bunch of grains, what you're telling them to eat a whole bunch of, and most people still do not understand this, when you tell people to eat something that's made of carbohydrates, you are telling them to eat sugar. It, it turns to blood sugar in your body. Now it may go there slowly, it may have some of its effect blunted by fiber content, but it is sugar. And so what people need to ask themselves if there is, and this is a true statement, if there is only a quarter teaspoon of sugar difference between in the blood, between somebody who's not diabetic and Somebody who's diabetic. Why does the body care so much about sugar that it regulates it that tightly? And then knowing that the body is regulating blood sugar that tightly, why would you tell them to eat a bunch of sugar? And so people don't understand that a loaf of bread is a loaf of sugar to your body. It is going to break that down into blood glucose. And so if you eat bread, you're going to see a spike of blood glucose. So. And there's a whole bunch of other stuff with like the wheat. And why are we, why are so many people, especially in the US responding to the gluten allergen and stuff like that? And it's a biomimic that looks like. Forget there's a cell in the brain that looks exactly like the gluten protein. And so once you have a response to it, this is why people get brain fog. Because you, your immune system starts attacking those proteins in your brain. So yeah, anyway, this stuff gets very, very scary very fast. So seeing people finally understand what you should actually be eating because your body processes things based on a set of rules. And so there's a knowing way that you will respond to animal protein versus a loaf of bread, it will be wildly different. I'm excited now. I don't think that you should force people to eat certain foods. If somebody wants to get morbidly obese and die, that's their business. But at least letting people know what is true and being more accurate now, they'll need to update this because obviously we'll learn things over time and maybe there are things that we think are great, like maybe olive oil secretly is terrible for us. Who knows? We'll find out in the fullness of time. So I want them to update, update this as things change. But yes, this is a huge step in the right direction.
- [58:10]
Drew
Yeah. And then what do you think is some of the, like the second and third order consequences of this? Is it just one of those things that if people eat better, we're going to see the ramification. My chair just broke. We're going to see the ripple effect of like all of our health. Do you think that it has that power to change our health care costs and stuff like that? Or is this.
- [58:29]
Tom
Oh God, I think most people do not control their body. They don't have discipline and so they're just going to eat terribly. But at least we're not lying to people anymore. And so when this starts showing up in schools and things, well meaning people that are paying attention aren't going to Go, oh, I'm supposed to feed my kids a bunch of toast and cereal. They're going to be like okay, cool. I get what the ideal is. Maybe some of that my I can't get my kids to eat and so I'm giving them other stuff. But at least I know what ideal looks like. So a step in the right direction that I don't expect to have any sort of big impact right now. The big impact is going to be making food from ingredients that taste amazing but are actually good for you. That was the mission at Quest was we wanted to make food you could choose based on taste. You didn't have to worry about being healthy. You just I like the way this bar tastes and it happened to be good for you. So that was always the goal. But I don't think education is the problem anymore to be honest. Like anybody that has you can get a free chat GPT account and then just say what should I eat? It's going to give you a decent breakdown. It's getting people to actually do it. Most people won't. So unfortunately in a world of abundance, most people will suffer because they have no willpower. That makes me very sad. This is why I say AI making all of our problems go away creates another problem which is that most people are not in control of their own mind.
- [59:58]
Drew
Do you think that somebody just put this in the chat and it kind of stuck out to me? Do you think that there is a one size fits all to nutrition or is there there is some nuance when you get person to person.
- [60:09]
Tom
Okay, I'm gonna give you the quick answer. There's a one size fits all.
- [60:12]
Drew
Gotcha.
- [60:13]
Tom
Now I'm gonna give you the truth. There's no one size fits all. And human biology is wild. It is crazy to me that my brother in law can eat every artificial sweetener known to man in contents that like I am expecting him to just fall over and die. If I ate a tenth of what he eats, I either start itching like crazy and break out in like horrifying rashes. I actually had that happen and or I get massive fatigue and brain fog. Why? I have no idea. I don't know what's different. I don't know if it's something that you could find in our genetics and you'd actually be able to see, oh it's a combination of these 17 alleles. Or if it's his microbiome he just happened to have a better hand of it. Or one time when he was traveling in the mountains of Cyprus, he Got dirt on his hand that happened to have a fantastic microbe that he's been carrying with him his whole life that allows him to metabolize artificial sweeteners. And I lack. I have no idea. Um, but yes, honestly, there, like, if you said the magic question to ask is, Tom, I'm about to be stranded on a boat for three years and I need to come back in perfect health, but I can only take one food item with me. What food item should I take? Do you know what the answer is? Because there is an answer.
- [61:41]
Drew
No. What's the answer?
- [61:42]
Tom
Red meat.
- [61:43]
Drew
Hmm.
- [61:44]
Tom
You won't get scurvy, which everybody thinks you have to have citrus or whatever to avoid. You do not. If you eat just red meat. It's the only thing where I'm like, if you isolated just down to that, you'll. You'll be fine for years. Everything else is a question mark. If you like, if you want to be a vegetarian and you're willing to go out of your way to make sure that you find. Oh, God. All of the different things that you need to eat to get a full amino acid profile, great. But you're made of the things in that red meat. You are not made of carbohydrates. Your body can turn protein into glucose. You don't need protein or you don't need glucose. So I for a while lived on a 4 to 1 ratio of. For every combined gram of protein and carbohydrates that I ate, I had 4 grams of fat. It's a horrible way to live. And if you're not careful, you go through something called keto flu. But when I say that your blood sugar be low, I'm talking like you're getting warnings from your glucose monitor. You do not need to eat glucose to survive. So you need fat, you need protein, otherwise you're toast. But you don't need alcohol, which is technically the fourth macronutrient. And you certainly don't need carbohydrates. Now, am I advising that you live like that? No. If you know how to eat a wider variety of stuff, your microbiome is going to be in way better shape. So my advice is eat the widest variety of whole foods that you can get your hands on. But whole foods got you.
- [63:17]
Drew
All right. That's all I got.
- [63:18]
Tom
Boys and girls, thank you so much for joining us. We are so grateful to all the people sending love for us going to three days a week. We are beyond grateful for your time and attention. We really are trying to bring you the information without a whole lot of spin. I'm not on a team, so you're certainly going to get my frame of reference. But I try to lay out exactly where I'm trying to steer my own thinking and what biases my speaking and hopefully you guys find that super useful. And I cannot wait to see you guys on Monday. Have a great weekend and until then, my friends be legendary. Take care. Peace. There are two types of people in this world. Those who wait for the perfect time to start, and those who start now and figure it out along the way. If you are ready to stop waiting and start taking control of your nutrition, I want you to listen. Most people know they should be getting proper nutrition every day. The challenge is not the knowledge, it's consistency. That's where AG1 comes in. It's a foundational nutritional supplement that turns good intentions into daily action. One scoop, one drink. That's it. No more complicated routines. No more putting it off until tomorrow. Just mix it with water and you're supporting your immune health for the day. AG1 isn't about quick fixes or temporary solutions. It's a nutritional supplement designed to become part of your daily ritual. Because real transformation happens through the small decisions you make every single day, it's never too late to create a new, healthy habit for 2025. So try AG1 for yourself today. And AG1 is offering new subscribers a free $76 gift. When you sign up, you'll get a welcome kit, a bottle of D3K2, and five free travel packs in your first box. So make sure to check out drinkag1.comimpact to get this offer again. That's drinkag1.comimpact to start your new year on a healthier note.