
Loading summary
Tom Bilyeu
When you manage procurement for multiple facilities, every order matters. But when it's for a hospital system, they matter even more. Grainger gets it and knows there's no time for managing multiple suppliers and no room for shipping delays. That's why Grainger offers millions of products in fast, dependable delivery, so you can keep your facility stocked, safe and running smoothly. Call 1-800-GRAINGER Click grainger.com or just stop by Granger for the ones who get it done. Economic warfare continues as Canada threatens to turn off our electricity, prompting Trump to say the tariffs will continue until morale improves. The Department of Education got radically defunded, and Larry Fink begs Trump to keep the illegals here to work the fields. Ukraine agrees to a ceasefire. Deepseek rocks the AI world again by proving size matters. And despite what you've heard, smaller is better. Google Robotics demoed a bot that can pack a lunch and do origami. And anthropic CEO says 99% of all code will be written by AI in just 12 months. And I offer solutions to modern dating, prompting chat to pay a lot of money to tell me I'm wrong. Okay, yeah, go ahead and play. It outperforms GPT 4.0 and Claude 3.5, which is interesting because 3.7 is already out on math benchmarks. Here it is running on a phone completely offline. Tiny 1.5 billion AI model that will run on almost any hardware even without Internet. Are you getting it yet? Here's why I like that this is going to free up a level of innovation. Like, I am hungry for this right now. Literally right now. I am working with manufacturers to help us build a toy that can sync up with an in game character so that players can have a relationship with an in game character that's driven by AI. Which, by the way, David Kim, the guy in the feed is the guy that has deployed that character for us. So the early stages, it's still trash. It will get better. Anyway, uh, so you've got an AI character in game, an AI toy out of game, in real life, and the two what, what we're trying to do is sync them up. It may not be possible yet. I guarantee it will be possible in the near future. But the big thing is how much is this thing gonna cost? Because you wanna make this as cheap for people as possible to make the experience awesome, to get it in as many hands as possible. So you need a very effective AI to have a very small footprint so that you can put it inside of these toys for very cheap. So that you need a very small chip that doesn't have to be super powerful to run this very powerful brain. And what we're seeing is that one of the ways that you can really innovate in the world of AI is to make the level of compression better and better. And so the reason this is a big deal is they're showing that these things can remain incredibly powerful with a really highly compressed data set. And that is awesome. That will unleash a ton of human creativity, not the least of which will be here at Impact Theory. So I'm very excited about this copy.
Will Ahmed
Okay. And then I just slide eric the, the Gemma 3, which is, that was the Google one. And that is their most capable model yet. It can run on a single GPU or tpu.
Tom Bilyeu
Yeah. So same idea here. These are getting more and more efficient.
Will Ahmed
Can you click that graph on the right? That will kind of outline.
Tom Bilyeu
Now what I hope the guy is meaning when he says, are you getting it yet? Is that this is becoming very cheap, very potent, very fast. And the rate of change is the thing that people are not. They're just not grappling with yet. So from the time that I launched my manufacturing search till now, this is already upgraded so fast that I have to now broaden my scope of who might be able to supply this to us, which is absolutely incredible. But this is why I say companies are going to get smaller, they're going to be more dexterous because whoever pulls the trigger on something, because at some point you have to pick a chip, buy it at a certain amount of scale, and you're going to want to keep that scale tight inherently making your options small, like the number of people that would be able to get a small. Because you're not going to be waiting a year to launch the next one, you're going to be launching the next one like in a month, two months. And so it creates this. This is why people freak out about deflation, by the way, because it creates this impulse, well, I'm just going to wait. I'm just going to wait. I'm just going to wait. And so you want to, you now have to think about doing small order quantities, make them very cheap so that you can get around that impulse to wait. And you create that sense of, well, I'll just buy that one and then I'll upgrade every six months or whatever, because they're cheap. And so I just want them to get better and better and better and I want to be able to take advantage of that. And so that is going to have consequences that we can't yet anticipate. But proliferation is one of the most obvious where now if I can have something as good as what GPT4O put into my fridge so that my fridge can run a constant scan of what's in my fridge, what I need to reorder. Use a Gentek AI running in my fridge to go actually place the orders on Amazon or send me a text and be like, hey, I'm about to place this order because you're out. Confirm or deny, dude, it's going to be awesome. Bias, bias, bias. I have a freakish bias towards innovation, but that is thrilling to me. This is going to be fun. This is going to be fun.
Will Ahmed
The thing that really jumps me for this is we were talking about Deep Seek being a big deal and that was a month and a half ago. You would have thought Deepseek came out six weeks, six months ago. Like it was something that happened. Like it's. We were. They just disrupted the market and I'm using air quotes. January 27th, we are something. We release our video and then now, March 12, we have a model that's just as powerful, if not more powerful in a fraction of that size now. So immediately the form factors are changing. And since it's a sprint, there's seven different companies all innovating in different levels on different ways.
Tom Bilyeu
And those are just the ones you know about. Yeah, there's some 14 year old right now coming up with some crazy compression algorithm that's going to make AI even smaller, even faster, and we just don't even know they exist yet. That's why the right mental model for what's happening right now is that this is 1999 Internet bubble and nobody knows whether are any of the players that are going to be major players in 10 years, are they even out yet? So we all think it's AI or we are OpenAI.
Will Ahmed
Yeah, this is going to all be Net Suite and Netscape and all those. Like we haven't got to the Chromes, the App Store yet, all that. That's a great analogy.
Tom Bilyeu
Correct. We are all going to benefit as the people that get to build with this, use these things. It's going to be incredible. But act of faith is required, admittedly.
Will Ahmed
All right, this was. I think this is probably the best walking robot I've seen so far. It just seems so fluid and like it actually has the mechanics under it. It doesn't seem like it's always about the fall or thinking too much.
Tom Bilyeu
Interesting. He looks still very stilted. But when I saw this stuff, I was like, oh, damn. Like, this is a bot that knows how to control. What are those things called?
Will Ahmed
Hoverboards.
Tom Bilyeu
Hoverboards, yeah. That's pretty impressive, riding a bike. Very impressive. So now you don't need bots that, like, are a bike. You can get bots that are able to adjust to the world the way that it is now, which means that you don't have to abruptly build new infrastructure for the bots to be useful. That's the part that I don't like. If anybody's asking themselves, why are they working so hard to make them humanoid, aren't they going to come in a bunch of other flavors? Yes, over time they certainly will. But right now, you have however many years of building infrastructure that assumes that you're a human with two legs and two arms.
Will Ahmed
And.
Tom Bilyeu
And so now if you've got a bot that can navigate that world, you're in much better shape.
Will Ahmed
Somebody just dropped in the Google DeepMind robotics video, Eric. I just liked that to you. I didn't realize Google had a robot. This was directly from their Twitter page and it's based off of Gemini 2.0. They bring capabilities such as better reasoning, interactivity, dexterity, and generalization into the physical world. A new generation of helpful robots.
Tom Bilyeu
See what we got. Family of Gemini models for robotics. They're able to understand the physical world in a lot of detail, understand motion, and be able to act in that physical world. Gemini Robotics is our most advanced vision, language, action model for robotics. That means that it takes natural language input and images and then outputs actions.
Will Ahmed
They're really dexterous. They're doing some really intricate stuff like folding origami or like packing lunch.
Tom Bilyeu
There's this one task where you have
Will Ahmed
to put the bread slice in like a Ziploc. You can talk to them and physically move stuff around. And as the robot is moving and you can see them reacting to you.
Tom Bilyeu
My favorite application is on the optronic humanoid. We have this task where the robot
Will Ahmed
is asked to spell a word with these Scrabble tiles.
Tom Bilyeu
It's this cross embodiment, dexterity, reasoning.
Will Ahmed
They all come together in this very cool task.
Tom Bilyeu
The other model really enhances the world understanding of Gemini for Robotics. So it will do things like detect all the objects in 3D space or maybe even identify parts of an object with semantic key points. Okay, so right now this stuff feels really awkward and it is admittedly impress. But the right way, I think, to look at this stuff is to you have to project out five Years, but five years of something very specific. All of these things are going to learn from all of the other robots. So when these sort of really lame versions of Gemini robot or Tesla Optimus, whatever, as they get deployed, as each one of them does a task and gets human feedback about whether that was good or bad instantaneously, all of the network bots learn from that. Think of that. Imagine Drew, that I don't just learn from the things that I research, that I learned from the things that you research, that Lisa researches, that will researches. Eric, everybody. And now go out, not 50 people, go out a hundred thousand people. And in real time I'm getting updated with everything that they're learning. Every improvement that they have is now spread across the network, dude. Like that's where you get into this superhuman rate of improvement that we're seeing in self driving cars where the cars are just having to make so many decisions and updating the entire network so that on that road a Tesla has driven a thousand times and they see, oh, the owner had to take over here and they had to do this. And so it's just learning and learning and learning and learning and learning. And the more that you get them out there, the more feedback that they're giving within the network, these things will improve at a rate that is faster. Freakish. And so if people stop thinking about oh, that in a year that's going to be super lame and you start going, what's it going to be in 10 years? It's going to be insane, dude. In 20 years I'm old. In 20 years I'm not even going to be 70 yet. I'm going to be in my 60s in 20 years. So it's like this stuff is going to be extremely relevant to my old ass in 20 years. What's it going to be for somebody that right now is 10, they're only going to be 30. And so they're going to live in a world where the, the world is just proliferated by robotics. That's where all of this stuff like when you start looking at it through that lens, you really start going, whoa, this is going to be a world that my current thinking has low predictive validity on. And so staying involved, understanding where this is going, and asking yourself one question over and over and over and over and over. How do I today engage with that thing such that I'm always a little bit ahead of everybody else? And I know people do not like to think of this as a competition. Let's just say you want to get ahead of everybody else, so you can be the one that's most helpful. Great. But understanding that you want to learn this stuff, you want to be at the cutting edge, you want to be pushing your own thinking, your own engagement, all of that stuff. You will deal with the period of disruption far better than everybody else who's freaked out, who put their head in the sand, didn't pay attention to this stuff. Standing still, pretending as if it isn't happening is the only mistake. Quick break, but don't go anywhere. There's more to come after this short break from our sponsors. With Vrbal's last minute deals, you can
Will Ahmed
save over $50 on your spring getaway.
Tom Bilyeu
So whether it's a mountain escape with friends, a family week at the beach, or sightseeing in a new city, there's still time to get great discounts. Book your next day now. Average savings $72.00 select homes only. If you work in university maintenance, Grainger considers you an MVP because your playbook ensures your arena is always ready for tip off. And Grainger is your trusted partner, offering the products you need all in one place, from H Vac and plumbing suppl to lighting and more. And all delivered with plenty of time left on the clock. So your team always gets the win. Call 1-800-granger. Visit granger.com or just stop by Granger for the ones who get it done. All right, we're back. Let's get into it.
Will Ahmed
I've been knee deep in a show called Bay for Kingstown, also on Paramount. That one's not as good. It's a little bit gritty. I don't know if you'll be into it.
Tom Bilyeu
This is Jeremy Renner.
Will Ahmed
Yeah, it was about like the prison complex and the system. And then we seen this link this past week about the meta putting quest twos into California prisons for inmates in solitary confinement. Because I think our prison system is broken. We talked about it briefly earlier. Like private prisons don't make sense to me, but I think that this is could be a positive way to. Reprogram is the wrong word, but kind of help people rehabilitate themselves in a cool way. However, it does look like a brainwashing a cut scene from like a dystopian future of people, like sitting in solitary confinement with a headset on. Like what's your take on VR in the prison system?
Tom Bilyeu
It's all going to be stats and the stats here are absolutely incredible. Now this is very early and who knows, this is one person making a claim. But if these can be believed, zoom In a little bit, because it says right there, crazy part is that VR, quote unquote, programming in. With the VR programming, inmate infractions have fallen 96%. To explain why I think this is so powerful and is the kind of thing that is very worth testing. I don't know that it'll play out well in the long run. Everything is a hypothesis. It's all physics of progress state, what's your goal? We want to reduce recidivism. We want to dramatically decrease violence of the inmates while they're in prison as well. Okay, cool. So let's say that that's our end goal. And our hypothesis is that if we can transport these people to a different world so that they don't feel so isolated, that they have, like, this opportunity to be expansive, all while we can influence the way that their brain is working to get them to make better choices. A lot of people that are in prison for violent crimes have suffered brain damage. And so there's like, all this brain wiring stuff becomes a part of this. Okay, cool. That's the hypothesis. That's the end goal. We've got our KPIs, recidivism, and violent incursions while they're in prison. Cool. So now we're going to pull the lever. The reason that I think that this probably will yield tremendous outcomes is the very first time I put on VR, the emotional reaction I had was, why am I pursuing wealth? And I was like, whoa, that is a very interesting insight into my mind because I'd worked so hard. Cool House had always been something that drove me. And when I put VR on and realized, wait a second, while I'm in VR, I actually feel that I'm looking at something real. And so the vista of a mountain range or whatever now feels real. And so imagine a world where either through VR, AR glasses, or holograms, whatever, you live in a tiny apartment in Manhattan. But when you look at your windows, which actually aren't windows, they're green screens. Uh, they are. Or, you know, something you could turn on and off, they're now showing you a vista. So you're looking out your window and you see outer space, or you're looking out your window and you see Paris, whatever, whatever your thing is, and it feels real, that that is going to have a profound impact on somebody's psychology. And for the same reason that you can get somebody to walk on a board that's only 2 inches off the ground. But in VR, they look like they're standing on a really small metal beam. Over a thousand foot drop, their amygdala lights up, goes crazy and is screaming at them, you really are in danger. So the brain, from an evolutionary standpoint, is designed to say, I see it and it's real. And therefore the amount of positive or negative impact that we could have using VR reprogramming I think is going to be pretty extreme. So if we can all admit that them being in prison is an outcome that we do not want, then we have to do something to reprogram them. And so you don't want that to be something that is worse for them. You want it to be something that is better for them. But yes, I want to see people truly rehabilitated in prison. I want to see them educated. I want to see them, as much as we can humanely address whatever literal brain trauma they have that has led them to that place. Anything that we can do to uplift the human spirit so that they are not. They don't want to return to a life of crime, which I get. Some people are just going to. And that just is what it is from a brain wiring standpoint. But yeah, anything we can do to help, I think would be awesome.
Will Ahmed
Yeah. The weird thing about it though is like, the images that are on the VR set. So right now I'm hoping that it's positive and they're only getting good things, but it can also get deranged really quick if they're like horror and they're like torturing people. Or I'm thinking like Minority Report, that black your mirror episode where like the VR image is now manipulated to make that person suffer as opposed to educate them.
Tom Bilyeu
Yes, that would be God awful. And that's why we have rules against that kind of thing. Obviously, I don't want to see people do cruel and unusual punishment. I don't want people tortured. So whatever the VR equivalent is of like they were saying the bots, you would feed them noise. Like, I don't want them putting them in VR in a way that's like, horrible. Like, this is why you have to say, what's the end goal? And so if the end goal is punishment, well, then it's going to be a very different VR. But that's not the end goal that I want for people. In fact, that's really interesting. It's not quite true. There is a level of punishment, but if I could do a thing that I knew 100% guaranteed that that person would embody deep remorse and never do said bad thing again, would I be okay with it? My immediate reaction Is no. So there's something I would have to process through because that's probably a level of brain manipulation that triggers. Not probably. That's a level of brain manipulation that triggers my. The unknown second and third order consequences make me nervous. And so I would tread into those waters slowly.
Will Ahmed
Nice.
Tom Bilyeu
Yeah. Things have to withstand the test of time.
Will Ahmed
All right. In other news, Anthropic CEO, the founder of Claude, my AI, talked about how coding will revol. AI will be the majority of coding in the very near future.
Tom Bilyeu
Yeah, like three to six months on one hand. I think comparative advantage is a very powerful tool. If I look at coding, programming, which is one area where AI is making the most progress, what we are finding is we are not far from the world. I think we'll be there in three to six months where AI is writing 90% of the code. And then in 12 months we may be in a world where AI is writing essentially all of the code. All right, so assume that he's wrong about the timeline and it's really in five years. The fact that AI is getting so good at writing code, which does not surprise me because this is a very defined outcome. Unlike creative writing, where it's like, I want you to make me feel a certain way when I read it or when I see it animated or whatever. That's really squishy. That's going to be really hard for AI to get good. You just need a ton of patterns for AI to get good at coding. There's a known it needs to run this, it needs to do this thing. And every time you code and go in and adjust that code, the AI is looking at that and going, oh, cool. I see how to do this right, I see how to do it right. That it's going to get very good very fast. I am surprised that people try to brush off the level of disruption that AI is going to bring to the job market. Even though as an act of faith, I choose to believe that the future will be better than the present, I recognize we will move through a period of massive disruption and it would be very cold comfort for a middle of the road programmer who right now can support their family. Um, they're going to get replaced by AI and that's real. And not having a sense of what do we do about that. This is where it's going to catch people off guard. You're going to get that major pushback because the emotional response that people will have is fuck AI. And then they're going to get very aggressive and they're going to rally around the government to make changes. And if we're talking like if he's even remotely close and this happens in the next 18 months, dude, people are going to feel some kind of way about this. You do not want to sweep this under the rug. This is one that you want to say, okay, what are we going to do here? What are we going to do about this? Because this one's, this one's going to be a wrecking ball. So here's what I think that we do about it. Dear everybody, you are going to have to take control of your own life. You are going to have to figure out how not to get left behind by AI. This is also part of the reason I want to onshore manufacturing. There has to be an off ramp for people that are not going to be able to or have the desire to keep up with the white collar jobs that are going to rapidly race away from them. And we've got to have a way for people to have dignity, meaning and purpose through a trade of some kind. So not everybody has to work in a factory. But if we have this idea of we need to make things, do things here in the US I think it's orientationally more advantageous. Now will those jobs also be replaced by robots? Many of them will for sure. And that moves us into where I was going in the beginning, which is you need to take control of your life. You need to ask yourself, how can I use AI to make things that people want, that I'm not going to be able to fold myself into a company in the way that we've been able to do historically? Companies are going to become much smaller in scope from a personnel perspective. More people are going to have to step into the role of not necessarily like an entrepreneur in the way that we think about it now, but you're going to become a part of a very small group that serves a very niche population. I've talked about dropping the world right now. The economic world that we have right now is all these companies of all different sizes, from very small to very large. That's going to break and it's going to be mostly a bunch of very small companies and then very large companies. And I think that the number of big companies that will shatter into thousands of little pieces is going to be very extreme. And so you need to bone up on not being, not needing somebody to tell you what to do. You need to focus on becoming self directed, to shake off the notion of when the cat's away, the mice will play. There's not going to be anybody looking over your shoulder. You're going to have to decide what outcome you're trying to achieve, and you're going to have to figure out how to get yourself there. And for an education system that teaches people to be good cogs in the machine, this is going to be very disruptive. Bang drum for educational reform. So that's where we're at.
Will Ahmed
Nice. I feel like his timeline was off, to be quite frank, because I feel like you saying five years, I think the year is. Is a better mark by next year. If everybody's not using AI, especially in the software engineering world, you're just shooting yourself in your foot, I feel like. So I think.
Tom Bilyeu
Yeah, I think. I think it is true that everybody overestimates what you can do in a year and you underestimate what you can do in three. Um. Yes.
Will Ahmed
Yeah.
Tom Bilyeu
There's no doubt. Now, I will say that he's very close to the problem. So he's probably overly ambitious. But I. If you're thinking as much beyond 18, if you're a coder. Yeah. And you're thinking as much beyond 18 months, you're probably making a mistake. I would just. Right now, today, man.
Will Ahmed
Just do it now.
Tom Bilyeu
And look, listen, I see this at Impact Theory to the point where the executive team is talking almost daily. How do we get you guys to embrace AI now? Some people do, but there are other people in the company that clearly there's an anxiety over it. There is a desire to poo poo it and say, but it doesn't do it today. My job is so nuanced. AI is not going to be able to do it. It's like, bro, that is just. I get it. As a writer, I'm looking at it going, okay. It doesn't get me all the way across the finish line, but I'm constantly pushing. Okay, but how close can it get me? How. How much can it extend my abilities? How much can it speed me up? Rather than lamenting, I'm not going to be sitting down and writing the way that I always thought I was going to be as a kid, that that reality is gone. If I could get people to distrust that anxiety and say, the only path forward is to embrace this incredible tool and I'm going to learn how to use it, that. That would be my ideal. But it is very hard to get people, when they're scared, to think clearly. Quick break, but don't go anywhere. There's more to come after this short break from our sponsors. All right, We're Back. Let's get into it.
Will Ahmed
Lisa, in the chat. Eric, I just liked you a picture.
Tom Bilyeu
That's hilarious. Don't judge a woman based on her husband. The funny thing is, babe, I thought the exact same thing. I was like, oh, my poor wife. So we, we're working with a company or we were considering. I can't remember if this is the one that we move forward with. But anyway, there was going to be a company that was going to help Lisa and the first thing that they said was, you need to create distance between you and your husband because now that your husband talks politics, it is hurting your channel. And I was like, my poor wife, because of me, she is getting drugged down. It's all too true. It's all too true. Don't judge a woman by her husband. Oh, actually I lie. Judge a woman by her husband. 100%. It is true. Because I was literally just talking to. Oh, God. I won't say who I was talking to. I am certain they will hear this and they will recognize themselves. And I said, if your woman is not in your ear pushing you to be a better, more aggressive man, you need to replace her. Boys and girls. That is how in fact, gentlemen out there, I'm saying right now, if you are, if you're with somebody who's not making you better, stronger, more aggressive, it's time to, it's time to swap out. That's just real talk now. That is my wife, Hardcore was pushing me when we were living in her mother's house. That woman was non stop trying to motivate me to be a better person and I will eternally be grateful to her for that.
Will Ahmed
Okay, so Robert Zane reposted what Lisa posted yesterday. If we could zoom in on that so Tom can see it. So for those listening, this was Lisa. Yeah, yeah. Lisa posted.
Tom Bilyeu
Yeah.
Will Ahmed
On the left side. What do you see in him? And it's an old picture of Lisa and Tom. There's the caption. Dirt poor. What is he wearing? Unemployed. He's not your type of. And then on the right, you're so lucky. Cool, hot, successful, stylish. He's so smart. And it just shows you don't judge your crap.
Tom Bilyeu
This actually makes me emotional. Like I am. I'm not a crier, but if something were going to move, I literally see it.
Will Ahmed
I literally see like the gloss on the eyes.
Tom Bilyeu
This is beautiful, man. I am so glad that we got together when we literally had nothing. God, I look terrible.
Will Ahmed
And you're wearing a man bag, by the way.
Tom Bilyeu
Well, okay, okay, hold on, hold on. That was to carry a dog in my defense. So yes, I will nurse it for my dog. Shout out to Batman, who was our, our first dog. Yes. So hiding in that bag is a little dog that you can't see. But my wife, then girlfriend was extraordinarily good at making me feel good about who I was currently and making it abundantly clear that I better get better. How you pull that off like that is tough because she had to make me feel good about who I was. Otherwise I'm not here for somebody that's haranguing me. Yeah, she had to make me feel good about who I was, but at the same time had to be pushing me in a direction to be better. Now the crazy thing is I don't know how consciously she was doing it. It would actually be very interesting. Next Monday, Lisa is gonna be. She's gonna be here with me in the co host seat. So it'd be interesting to re ask this question Chat, please remind me. But I don't know how consciously she was doing it, but she was doing it. And if I can just talk really nakedly. I often speak in, in an oblique way on this, but women, when you're in a romantic relationship with somebody, you have many tools that other people don't have. The most important of them is sex. And you have to be careful because you want to walk a fine line. You don't want to be sexually manipulative. But using sex like one thing my wife could always do for me, that has always been so powerful. When I did something that was powerful in the world, stood up for myself, pushed for more, was aggressive, she would give me that look of like, oh my God, you're really turning me on right now. And then would richly reward me for my very masculine drive, for the pursuit to work harder, to push farther, to stand up for myself. Like, because my journey has been one of learning to be stronger, tougher, more aggressive, that was not my default state. And by rewarding me in the ways that only a wife can, it really put me down a path that I have that has yielded tremendous results in the world. And it's like, I want that thing for people. I want people to understand the dynamic in a romantic relationship that has existed for all of human history, where when you reward behavior that you want to see more of and you people are going to hate this language, punish behaviors you want to see less of, it will shape somebody. And when you're a unit and you have the unit's best interests at heart now it's like, I want something that's good for us. And so I'm not pushing you like this to be a bitch. I'm pushing you like this because this is what I believe is good for the unit. Given that we have a stated goal of what we're trying to achieve, these behaviors are or are not going to take us there. And I want to reward those. And so I am so glad that I found a peer in my wife. Not somebody who. Not somebody who I want to get away from or I look down on. Like, I was never the guy that was like, I just want to be with my boys, and my girl thinks so.
Will Ahmed
Ball and chain, Yeah.
Tom Bilyeu
I was like, man, I don't understand that approach to life. So having a peer, somebody who wanted what was good for the unit, which also happened to be good for me and knew how to reward me. Boy, oh boy. And there was. Speaking of not being a crier, one of the times in my life where I legitimately wept was this was long before cameras were a part of the picture. I could see what she was doing. I could see she was making me a better person. And I really broke down one day because I was getting credit for something. I don't even remember what. And I said, no one, you're never going to get the credit you deserve for the man that I'm becoming. And I was, like, really devastated by that because I was like, fuck, I don't know how to articulate this. I don't know how to. Because at that time, she was a housewife. And so I was like, Like, I don't know how to pull this into the world and say like, yo, I fully recognize that you are my peer. I fully recognize that I'm married to my equal. And I don't know how to get you credit for everything you've ever done. I couldn't have predicted that I'd be on camera one day and be able to get to say things like this for the world to see. That's what I want for people. It's awesome.
Will Ahmed
That's beautiful. You gimme hope, Tom. Love is still out there.
Tom Bilyeu
Love is out there.
Will Ahmed
I feel like I'm like your single friend in a rom com. And it's just like, hold up. And I'm just like, yeah, okay. Then I go home and eat snacks on my couch or something and eat a tub of ice cream. Okay, you wanna talk terrace?
Tom Bilyeu
I kind of want to talk about you eating the chips and the ice cream. Let's just real fast close that loop because the streets are trash. Social media and dating apps have really created delusion. I think we've talked about this before, but if I could do a PSA for a second.
Will Ahmed
Okay.
Tom Bilyeu
I think the following is the primary problem. Because there are so many other fish in the sea, people are trying to optimize for the perfect match off the jump. Like, not even the perfect match that they meet the checklist perfectly. That was one thing Lisa and I did not fall prey to. And so in the beginning, I'm sure, despite the initial attraction, in fact, not I'm sure. Let me be very specific. When I decided, when I was thinking seriously about proposing, proposing to Lisa, I actually wrote a pros and cons list. And there were cons and there were things about her that I not only didn't like, that I was very worried about on a long enough timeline would be so problematic that I should not move forward with her. The one that I remember so clearly, she gets sick a lot. And I was like, I'm not a caretaker. That's not my vibe. I just, hey, I'm glad that there are some people and I respect the shit out of people that are caretakers. I'm not one of them. And I was like, am I really going to move forward with somebody that is. That is sick frequently? Am I actually going to be able to deal with that? And there were other things. I actually don't remember them. I'm not being coy if I remember them. I just. Fucking Sam. But when I looked at the prose list, I was like, the exact phrase I said to myself at the end of that list was, I'm either never getting married or I'm marrying this woman. But I would say to her face, I bet there are. There are other people out there that I could marry, and I would have just as wonderful of a life. And so I don't want you to feel like you have to constantly be looking over your shoulder to make sure that there's nobody better than you. What this is, is commitment. So I have a tattoo that I got when we got married as a ritualistic scarification. I know it sounds silly because everybody gets tattoos now, but that's how I approached it. It is the only tattoo that I have, despite my wife practically begging me to get more tattoos because she fucking finds it sexy. And my thing is, no, I wanted to do something painful, to be a different person the day after getting married than I was the day before. So we got married. And then after our honeymoon, for reasons that don't matter, I ended up getting the Tattoo as a way to remind myself I'm now a different man. And there are only four words on it, and one of them is commitment. And commitment is saying, I get that there are other fish in the sea. I get that there are more beautiful women than you. And that doesn't matter to me. I'm in a relationship with you. We have chosen each other. I am committed to making this relationship work. Not a relationship work. This relationship.
Will Ahmed
That's good.
Tom Bilyeu
And so I understand that you're not perfect, as I understand that I am not perfect. And so each of us have a pros and cons list on the other person, but we draw a line. And for me, that was the proposal. The proposal was hard for me. I was like, whew, am I really going to do this? The marriage was easy because once I made a decision that was that I was ready to get the tattoo as a part of the proposal, I didn't. And I think it's better in terms of pomp and circumstances, ceremony to do it around the wedding. But that to me was the line was like, once I propose, that's the end game. And now we're in this. Social media and dating apps have given people the exact opposite understanding of what a relationship is. There's always somebody I can swipe to and get to the next person, get to the next person, get to the next person you're going to be with. Somebody who's going to shape you. Shape and be shaped. Want that, don't want. This is them right from the jump. Now I get it. People are like, oh, this bitch wants to change me. Yeah, that's evolution. Welcome to the party. Yeah.
Will Ahmed
And it's interesting to say that because I'm also. I'm starting to realize that you have to want that level of accountability because it does take understanding of self to say, I am okay with being changed. I want to be changed. Me having, like a child early, I was forced to handle responsibility in a different way than some of my friends. So right after I had Lynn my senior year in college, so I didn't have that transition of like, ooh, now I have a full time job and I have, like discretionary spending. Like, I'm still living as a college student, but I'm getting paid 80 grand. Let me go do some things. Like, it was a different kind of level. So I went right from school to, like, domestic mode. So I took one responsibility on and kind of carried on another. So I never had that like, fuckboy phase of just like out here spending money or just out here, like, traveling, going on vacation, taking a bunch of Instagram pictures. And I think that a lot of times what I've been running against is that I would meet somebody that likes who they are. And it's to your point of take me as I am, but then with me of always, like, the, well, you know, we got to do this, and we got to do this, like, we have to go to the next responsibility. That can sometimes be a trigger for certain people. And that's something that I didn't. I had to acknowledge in myself as well. It's like, okay, not everybody wants to become a better version of themselves. Not everybody wants to get better. Not everybody has that mindset. So it's interesting that you kind of put that nail of, like, change and be changed, because some people are resistant to change. Some people want to just be like this and have somebody who loves them like this and they want to stay in this box.
Tom Bilyeu
But you can also do it in a bitchy way that's really fucking horrible and makes the guy want to donkey punch you and get the out. So this is where. And I do see the red light, Will. This is where, like, it is a dance. And if my wife did not make me feel. If my girlfriend did not make me feel better about who I was when I was with her than when I wasn't, she would never have become my wife. So it's like, you have to earn the right to shape somebody by letting them know, I'm into you right now, today.
Will Ahmed
Yeah.
Tom Bilyeu
And I can't wait to see who we can become together. That was the vibe. That was the energy. Now, there were definitely times where people have heard me tell the story a million times. It was ultimately shame that pushed me to make change. And my then fiance was not impressed that she had a job. I did not. She would come home and I would just be at, like, 12:30 or something, and I would just be crawling out of bed. And I only got out of bed so I could make her a sandwich. I mean, it's really crazy when I tell the story that it was actually true. It was actually true. And that my hair wasn't done and I was wearing my pajamas still. And she was just like, this isn't cool. And she was just like, you don't even do your hair. And so there was this element of like, what are you doing? And so all of that leads to change. But then if I do my hair and I show up, you gotta be like, yo, I love this. This is so cool. Like, thank you. You can't be like, well, finally, like, you did the thing. Like, she was just like, oh, my God, I love it. Your hair looks so great. Like, this is fantastic. Thank you so much. Like, this really means a lot to me that you're up and you're excited, and so it was. There were rewards. Think of it like a bank account. You can make withdrawals if you've made enough deposits. If you have not made enough deposits, you can't make a withdrawal.
Will Ahmed
Yeah, it's a good way to put it. Good way to put it.
Tom Bilyeu
Oh, this is a good one. Here we go. All right. Criticism. I'll even read this one out loud. Will. Tom, you are such a cuck. Which I'm guessing spelled weird because otherwise you would get grabbed. Women date across and up. Agreed. She would have left you long ago had your performance not accelerated. Okay, are we saying that's bad? They want the winners at the finish line. Yes. Out of touch or mating? Out of touch on mating. Dating. Otherwise. I love your content, Jake. Thank you. So, first of all, guys, I. I have no problem with criticism whatsoever. So by all means, bring it, because if you see something that I don't, you're only gonna make me smarter. So, Jake, here is what I would say to that. The whole point of shaping and being shaped is that you want a better version. I've gotten a better version of Lisa over time. And if Lisa did not have a growth mindset and Lisa were a problem and Lisa were making this. I did make. You broke Lisa. That is for sure. For a while, I made up for it. If Lisa became a problem, I would have left Lisa. So Lisa and I have been very clear with each other that this is not unconditional love, that there are lines that can't be crossed. And if Lisa were making me miserable and this were a loveless marriage and she didn't have a growth mindset and she was dragging me down, then I wouldn't stay in that relationship either. So a hundred percent. If she were still the same person that I married, I would have zero interest. If I were still the same person that she married, I assume she would have zero interest. So this is about having a shared goal that you have articulated, and then you're moving towards that goal. Now, in Lisa's defense, she actually, at one point, really pushed me to make a decision that was financially terrible. I came home one day and she said, okay, you are now damaging our marriage. She didn't say in the pursuit of wealth, but that was the thing. Hiding. I had become so unhappy at my job because I was just showing up every day trying to get rich, trying to prove that my father in law was wrong. I want to read that comment from Lisa, hold on. And she said, look, I don't care about the money. I want you to be happy. And so she has earned her stripes in that she has proven when it really mattered. She was like, we were going to move to a small town in Greece where we could rent like a small little place and I could write a screenplay because she believed one, she believed that I would be good enough at that, that we'd then be able to come back to Hollywood and take it over. So there was still ambition hiding in all of that. She wasn't like, yeah, surrender your life. But she was like, do. Do a thing that you're fun to be around. Do a thing that makes you happy. She was like, you used to be so alive. And she was like, you're so unhappy and you will come home and you'll say, literally, don't ask me about my day. I don't want to think about it. I don't want to talk about it. When I would drive into the office, it was like driving into a place with storm clouds over it. Drew for years I couldn't go to Marina del Rey without feeling like I was going into that darkness because that period of my life was so dark. And my wife, who wanted to see me do better, make more money, be the guy that crosses the finish line was like, your happiness and our shared love of day to day life is so important to me. I don't give a fuck if you have to step backwards. I don't care if we've got to be even poorer for an unknown number of years. I want to be happy. I want to enjoy today. Now, again, this was still in pursuit of being ambitious and going and doing the thing that I loved and all of that. But she had a chance to be like, fuck you, I'm going to go find somebody else. And instead said, I want you to be happy. All right. Lisabille says Jake is seeing it from his own lens, of course, as we all do, because it's so not true that I worry why he thinks that in the first place. So in fairness to Jake, the streets really do strike me as trash right now. And I think that there is massive dysfunction in the frame of reference of people who always want to swipe left, right. Which one says right? Right. Right is I want to find somebody else.
Will Ahmed
Oh, left, left. I don't like right. I'm into it.
Tom Bilyeu
Got it. So they want to swipe left to find somebody else. Always more. More swiping left, even on their own person. Uh, I get why people want to do that, but it is a mistake. Ultimately, you're going to realize that nobody is perfect and that you are going to either be alone or a string of relationships, or you're going to find somebody who is as imperfect as you, and you're going to find a way to navigate this life a little better because you have somebody that removes some of your blind spots. With the Department of Education, I would say look at the outcome of a policy. This is why I'm like, you have to understand you need to state what your goal is. You need to say what the KPI is that represents that goal. And then you say, this is the thing that we're going to try to do to affect this. So take the Department of Education. We are trying to move our standing in the global rankings. Okay. That would be a very simple way to track this. Since the Department of Education got came into existence, we have held flat or moved backwards. I think there are very few places where we've actually made very minor improvements. And so given that, I would say it has failed to do its job. Now, is getting rid of it the answer, or do you have to go in and make adjustments? That I will say we're about to find out because they're. I think they're going to try to abolish it.
Will Ahmed
So 50% is already cut.
Tom Bilyeu
Really?
Will Ahmed
Yeah. They got emails last night that by Tuesday morning they have to have their. Tuesday evening, they have to have their stuff packed up. So we'll call it.
Tom Bilyeu
Did they use as the method of determining what 50% to cut?
Will Ahmed
Oof. That's a thing that we need to go deeper on.
Tom Bilyeu
Yeah. So that'll be interesting. But if you. If we can't agree that as of today, the Department of Education has failed to achieve its goals, now we're in trouble. But if we can agree that the Department of Education has failed to achieve its goals, then it's like, okay, what changes do we need to make in order to get the outcomes that we want? Now, I think a lot of people believe that the Department of Education is going to be cut. And then it's just like, well, good luck. All of the things that are being done are shifting off to other departments. I've heard a breakdown. I don't have it memorized, but we'd have to look it up. But it's like things are going to be shifted over into different Departments to make sure that, for instance, I think the Department of Justice is going to handle whether different communities are being treated differently. So like racial equality, that's going to go through the Department of Justice. So the things that we want the Department of Education to do will be handed off to different institutions. It's right now self evident to me that we are not achieving our goals and therefore we have to do something different. So the definition of insanity is to do the same thing and expect a different outcome. Now, what Eric Weinstein thinks about this, I have no idea. I've not heard him talk about it. So if somebody wants to pull up a tweet that he's done, although he does tend on the long side of tweets, so might have to review for the next one. But I'd be very interested to know how they determined what 50% to slash, because if they're doing that poorly, then you're not gonna get any positive outcome from all of this. And there it is.
Will Ahmed
And there it is pulling it up. Right now. The focus is to reallocate the resources to the students, parents and the teachers and cutting some of these extra programs. It's similar to the DEI rollback they've been doing across the government.
Tom Bilyeu
That still feels vague. What does that mean? What do you know? Does it list what programs are actually cut?
Will Ahmed
It's just that the staff of 4,100 is going to be cut in half, and that's with layoffs and the buyouts that they did earlier in the. In his administration.
Tom Bilyeu
Got it. So if it follows that, then it's basically who are the people that will voluntarily go? Yeah, who are the newest people hired? So it's a blunt instrument. I don't expect that to yield fantastic results. It will lower the cost of the Department of Education. That is not going to automatically increase the output of the Department of Education, meaning that we move up in stature and language and mathematics and all of that stuff. So that makes me very sad. Now, when I'm advising business owners, I always say, is there somebody that has done this well before? If it is, go audit them, figure out what they did. I always round everything to KIP schools. And so forgive me if it isn't specifically kipp, but there are charter schools that are absolutely crushing it. And so looking at the charter schools, I think it'd be a very good way. I will shorthand what I have learned at my surface enough level of analysis. But it goes something like this. You have to hold kids accountable to a very aggressive standard. You have to Set expectations. So from the moment they come into a school, charter school, students are told, you are going to college, you are going to graduate, and they have teachers that are held accountable to the results of the students in their class. And if those teachers are not able to deliver the results, those teachers are replaced. So you have evolutionary pressures on the teacher, you have evolutionary pressures on the students. You set the expectation. You hold people accountable to a high standard. We've really gotten into a weird place in America where we think that holding a kid to a standard is mean because not all kids are going to be able to make the standard. But that's just the reality. So, for instance, I was unable to get into the advanced program when I was in middle school. I managed to pull it off when I got into high school, but I wasn't able to do it in middle school. Was that mean? I would say not if I wasn't ready for it. I wasn't ready for it, and that's just that. So it put me in a position where I wanted to work harder so that I could do better. Now, unfortunately, the way that that all plays out in my psychology was absolutely terrible because I just ended up cheating like a fiend in high school. Huh? I learned my lesson by the time I got to college, boys and girls. But nonetheless, putting those kinds of expectations on people allows for all of us to step back and say, who's hitting the standard, who's not? Remembering that skills have utility. So if you can do that thing, it means that you're actually capable in the real world of something that other people are not. And then that will give us a much clearer sense of how we get the output that we want. And right now, by lowering standards, lowering standards, lowering standards, we have an invisible goal of, I just want kids to feel good. Period. Now, new paragraph. I don't think that. I think that it is deeply embedded in the human psyche that if our praise is contingent on somebody protecting us from the reality that we are not good at something, there is an internal feeling of unease. And I think a big part of anxiety comes from knowing that you need somebody else to defend you, that you're not able to defend your own position. And so when you're getting that trophy for participation, that some part of you knows, I'm not as good as the other people. And I know that. And so let's just take basketball as something that I am just unbelievably bad at. When I was playing basketball as a freshman, I did not understand that if I practiced, I would get better. So every time I went out on the court, it felt like an indictment of who I was as a person. And nobody was able to pierce my frame of reference to get me to understand that if I practiced, I could get better. And since I could get better, I needed to be held accountable to every time I stepped on the court that I was trying to get a little bit smarter, I was trying to get a little bit better, and that I should be listening to coaches and taking the criticism as a way to improve instead of as this indictment of myself. So if somebody had stood up for me and said, no, no, you've got to give this time, this kid time on the court. Everybody deserves time on the court. I would know every time I stepped on the court, but I suck, and so why are you putting me in? And I would have this deep unease around that. And so I would want people to learn how to step into that arena and say, okay, you have a frame of reference, so this is an indictment of you. But the reality is that skills have utility and you can get good at this. You may not ever be as good as other people because we all have a starting. We all have biologically real. Our skills are tied to our biology. Call it roughly 50% cool, but you can get a hundred times better at anything. If that had been the frame of reference that I had, then it becomes a very different game than feeling like I need other people to step in on my behalf, which is a very fragile place to live, period.
Will Ahmed
Do you think that education should be privatized?
Tom Bilyeu
You have traumatized me with privatized prisons so deeply. I think that there should be a private option that is for sure, so that we can see do private schools yield better results. If they yield better results, is there anything that stops the governmental education from copying those things? But education is one of the things that my knee jerk reaction is it should not be exclusively privatized because I want my tax dollars going to the next generation like that. If you. If you want to make me feel good about my taxes, take my money and make the next generation of just assassins. That's. I tried to get around that word, Drew, and I just couldn't. That. That is the word that my mind
Will Ahmed
born identity, the whole next generation.
Tom Bilyeu
Yeah, I, but, but obviously intellect.
Will Ahmed
I get you. Yeah, I get you. You okay, so as we're. As I'm going through it, I'm on a ROTORS article right now. I can drop the link in the discord. So the Department of Education. It does not. Is not the Source of bulk public school funding. So public school funding comes from the state and local governments. More than 85% of that comes from their local municipalities. So cutting the Department of Education does not mean that education to state and local schools is automatically done. It's only about 15%. Also, Linda McMahon, who's Vince McMahon's wife, who leads the Department of Education, I just find that hilarious. She said that, to be honest, they cannot outright cut the department without a vote from Congress. So although they're slashing it down and they're reducing the size of it, there's no way it could go to zero without a congressional vote. A majority of the department oversees student loans, Pell grants, and special need funding for special need programs, funds the art programs and replaces outdated infrastructure. So the Department of Education, as I'm reading it, and again, I'll link this, they're kind of the stopgap to help certain schools and certain municipalities. They fund certain programs on top of the existing school structure that's already there. And they also enforce Title IX guidelines that prohibit sex discrimination in education.
Tom Bilyeu
Word.
Will Ahmed
In 2024, their budget was $251 billion, which includes mandatory spending along with the student loan program, Pell grants, and grants for vocational training. So Department of Education, their funding and their allocation in a nutshell. Thank you, Reuters link will be posted in the disc chat in the discord.
Tom Bilyeu
Yeah, I just, I don't understand why more people aren't screaming from the rooftops that we are not getting a good outcome. That is a crazy part to me. Thomas Sowell wrote a book called Charter Schools and Their Enemies. I'm pretty sure that's the, the exact title. But the, the central question of that book is why would people push back against this idea where you have one set of principles that yield an absolutely God awful outcome and then you have another set of principles that yield a great outcome. That's where I want to see people focus. What is the desired output and is that system yielding that output? And if not, you need to be making changes to that system and there needs to be a cohesive hypothesis on why the changes that you're going to make are actually going to yield that outcome. And it is really interesting. America makes a lot of sense. Or the left in America makes a lot of sense. When you understand this idea of wanting to psychologically protect children from the realities that they're not as good as somebody else, but that yields a really bad outcome.
Will Ahmed
Trump went tariff for tariff with the premiere of Ontario. So you said you were traveling. You didn't catch up on this. We got to start at the beginning with this one.
Tom Bilyeu
No, no, no. The tariff thing. I. Well, if you have a clip, please play it. Yes, but I am certainly at least headline deep on the tariff. Let me be clear. I will not hesitate to increase this charge if necessary. If the United States escalates, I will not hesitate to shut the electricity off completely. Believe me when I say I do not want to do this. I feel terrible for the American people because it's not the American people who started this trade war. It's one person who's responsible. That's President Trump. I'd rather be working together. I want to sell the US More energy, more electricity, more critical minerals. Okay. Positive. I want to make Canada in the United States. This is going to be interesting. So this is all part of the chaos that President Trump is creating with the way that he approaches negotiations. I need to read his the Art of the Deal, because from what I hear, he says plainly in the Art of the Deal that you want to create chaos, that you want to be patient, you want to let people have their freak out. But ultimately, if you have leverage, they're going to come back to the table. It is my understanding that they have since backed off of this. So big talk and then backed off. It's very telling that Trump said, they've got a strong man. I get it. This is. These are going to be the kinds of things that they're going to say, but they've already backed off this. And I think he said, I respect that they backed off of it. So he likes tough guys. So when people are freaking out, being like, yeah, I'm gonna fuck you up, whatever. He's not, he's non plussed and he's gonna ratchet up. And I have a feeling he's doing this cold calculation behind the scenes of like, where's our leverage? And if I have the leverage, fuck these kids. Now the rest of us like, oh, God. Like, this is so chaotic. The markets are freaking out because they don't like chaos. I think people are very wrong to attribute to Elon and Trump that they're playing like some tesseract chess where it's like, no, no, like we want. It's all anti inflationary and we're gonna pop this bubble and we're gonna drive the economy in the tank so that the average person can buy assets. Holy fuck that. I buy that as much as I buy people saying, just shoot me in the air, bro. Fuck that. There's no way when you freak out the, the markets, you don't know what way they're gonna go. So there's no universe in which even if they get the outcome, even if that is what ends up playing out. Ill advised. You don't understand how you might cause the market to freak the fuck out and cause untold damage to people. No way. Don't buy that now. Do they create chaos and then go, oh, actually now that the economy's tanking, that's all right. People will be able to buy at a discount. Sure that I will believe that they create a problem and then go, well, but there's like a positive that will come out of it. Always look on the bright side of life. But I don't buy that. This is tesseract chess. So I think Trump creates chaos. I need to read the Art of the Deal. But I have heard people say that that is a thing that he states plainly in the book. And so we are watching, we are living through that chaos right now. So he wants to establish himself as the big boy. He looks at the world and I'm taking this from things he's actually said. He looks at the world and says, okay, previous governments have allowed us to be taken advantage of because they this, that part. He has said the following part is my interpretation that they're playing nice boy global politics and they want to get along with everybody. I don't care about that in the slightest. I'm going to flex our muscle. I'm going to show people that if they want access to the American economy that they're going to give us the quote unquote respect that we're due. And what comes of that comes of that. And in the long term he believes that that will be better for America. He's playing a game of chicken. That that is the right way in my estimation to look at this. And when you play chicken, you may crash headlong into the other person, not blinking. And the other person in all of this that I worry about is China. So I'm not worried about Canada. Canada will fold. They just don't have, as he would say, they don't have the cards. So have the cards. Yeah, so Canada doesn't have the cards. So you can probably be pretty ham handed with Canada and still get your way. You can probably be pretty ham handed with Mexico and still get your way. Can't be ham handed with China. They are a pure competitor. They are a pure competitor militarily, they are a peer competitor economically and so on. That one you could have a head on collision and so Man, I'll be real fucking careful with that. So will. Will they get something positive out of all of this? Maybe. Would it be wise to look back on this and be like, separate two things? Will it be wise to look back on this and if asset prices going down allows people to buy in and that would be good, by the way, do we look back on this and go, they did that on purpose. Well played. No, that would be a fool's errand. Wait, shoot me in the ear. That's exactly how I feel about that. That could go so fucking wrong. It's just not worth the risk. On the other side, establishing America as a manufacturing force, I think is important. In fact, this is the criticism that Destiny had of me that does Tom not understand? I think he called it comparative advantage. Does he not understand? He does understand comparative advantage. I know he does. So why is he saying this? And I'm saying this because I believe this map people's base assumptions. I believe we're in a cold war with China. I believe that we must onshore certain critical manufacturing. The thing that I care most about are what are the things that lead to our modern way of life. So that's going to be energy, that's going to be chips, that's going to be rare earth minerals. Like, we've got to find ways of getting that stuff in house. That's why I get what he's doing with the Ukraine and or Russia, quite frankly, having a larger degree of distrust for China I think is wise. So not getting your rare earth minerals from China I think is smart. So with that base assumption, that's why I say you. Trump's tariffs will onshore certain things and that is a good thing. But not to be confused with. I don't. I think that Trump is inviting a level of chaos that is so high risk. Both things are true.
Will Ahmed
Yeah. It was very chaotic. Ontario clapped back with their tariffs. Trump was like, okay, 25 is turning into 50. And then ultimately Ontario walked it back. Howard Luton went over there and they're allegedly reworking the North America trade deal. So hopefully, to your point of him causing chaos is just a inciting incident to bring everybody to the table so that way they can sit down and then start talking through and maybe get better and fairer trade deals. But it is chaotic and the markets have reacted and people are nervous. But you brought up the Destiny clip, so it made me want to pull that up. Let's go to Destiny's point. He did say that across the board, tariffs were bad and you were like, yeah, if he does across the board tariffs, that'll be like fucking crazy. And Trump is doing across the board tariffs right now.
Tom Bilyeu
Right.
Will Ahmed
So do you hear me championing them
Tom Bilyeu
now or do you hear me being very consistent with that? Because my hypothesis remains that you're going to put yourself in a position where you are now playing chicken. Now, admittedly, I don't know how it will play out. And the more I look into tariffs. No, he's not changing. He don't say it. No, it's all roads. All the roads. Every sign falls away and all roads lead to Rome. No, no, he's not about to say, I'm making a dramatic assumption for literally no reason.
Will Ahmed
I just.
Tom Bilyeu
I'm making a dramatic assumption for no reason. He's going to say, the more I look into it, the more I'm realizing it is a really bad thing. But also, he's already done the tariffs. But it's not even bad that he's done the tariffs. He's like, I'm waiting to see how this plays out, how long he already did them. And the more I look into tariffs. He's not going to. The more I'm like, okay, has one outcome, which is it will onshore manufacturing. No, no, no. We just have to have a business talk because Tom. This is also a thing. Tom knows. Tom absolutely knows what comparative advantage is. I know he. I know from personal conversations. Not in those economic words, but like, if I were to go to Tom and say, tom, I need business advice. I'm really, really, really good at streaming. I'm so bad at, like, managing my. At my email and my finances. Okay, help me get better at managing my email and my finances. Tom would say, why are you wasting your time on your email and your finances? If you're really good at streaming, pay somebody to do that shit. Why the fuck would you waste your fucking time doing something you're not that good at? It's not even making that much money for you. You can make way more money. Just stream more. Pay somebody else to do it. I'd be like, oh, shit, Tom. Good, good idea. You're right. United States of America. Hi. We have highly productive labor. We're really good at, like, last stage of assembly on products. And we lead the world in tech and AI.
Will Ahmed
That is true.
Tom Bilyeu
But do you guys, like, manufacture widgets? Well, no, but we just, like, buy the widgets from somewhere else.
Will Ahmed
Fuck that.
Tom Bilyeu
Why the fuck we make. Hold on. Have you thought about cutting back on your most productive work and pulling back on retarded shit? Like tech and AI and getting back into manufacturing widgets. Maybe. Wouldn't that be. Wouldn't that be kind of cool if you made your own widgets? No, actually it doesn't sound cool at all. It actually sounds like it would be a major step back. Treating the government like a business has wild downsides. So cue anybody freaking out. But wait, that's what Trump and Elon are doing? Yup. So this is where nailing down somebody's base assumptions is very important. If you take my base assumption to be that I believe that we are in a potential headlong collision or head on collision with China, that they control too much of our manufacturing base, that not controlling our manufacturing base puts us in a weakened position, that we are racing towards Thuc's trap, meaning China and America right now have a gravitational pull to fight. If we are going to fight, China cannot control our manufacturing. Therefore, even though I get what he means by comparative advantage in a company, that is absolutely true. But this is all about what is the outcome that you want. My expected outcome of allowing China to continue to manufacture essentially everything for the world, including us, is that we are in a weakened position from a manufacturing standpoint on a whole host of levels, not the least of which is militarily. We will therefore lose a conflict with China, certainly just to keep it simple, over Taiwan. Taiwan, as of right now, today controls chip manufacturing, which is your entire modern way of life. So once you understand that as my base assumption, then even though I get comparative advantage and hey, it was a fun moment to live through where we could disperse everything around the globe and let people specialize and they do the thing that they specialize in, we do the thing that we specialize in and everybody's happy. The problem is that made China strong, which created Thucydides trap. And so as America has declined for a whole host of reasons, not just because of globalism, but protecting your empire becomes incredibly expensive. So as America has declined and China has come on the rise, you set up Thucydides trap where we are going to collide with China. And I'm saying you've got to be prepared for that collision. So in a time where globalism is the play, yes, you want everybody to specialize as you set up Thucydides trap. You cannot be in that weakened position. Okay, Now I've talked extensively about Trump is playing a game of chicken with the chaos that he's creating with across the board tariffs. And I don't know if in the long run we will be better off or worse. Off, we will find out. But you must bring some manufacturing back to the US and for the reasons that I just talked about and the fact, another base assumption that I have, that deaths of despair among young men are largely due to the fact that there is a large cohort of, of American men that are not going to find white collar jobs. And if there's no blue collar jobs for them to have, you create a very big problem. And so another way that you solve that is by bringing manufacturing back to the U.S. okay, so there it is. That's my take. Pushback.
Will Ahmed
No, I'm formulating my question because I think that having the government run by a businessman isn't he taking a business as a government perspective. But you think when it comes to tariffs in this specific case, there's greater implications. So that's why it's an exception.
Tom Bilyeu
I'm saying that you can draw the parallel to business forever if you want, but you've got to come back out to 30,000ft and say, okay, what makes a business work? What makes a business work is you have a desired outcome that you state, you hold Everybody accountable to KPIs and you try a thing, I call it the physics of progress. And you see, did it move the KPI in the direction that we wanted it to move? Running government like that makes all the sense in the world. Now as you drill in to treating a government as a one to one with a company, you start getting things like in a company, you do want comparative advantage. I don't want you doing things within the company that you don't do well, I would rather you specialize. And then I've got somebody else in the company that specializes in that other thing and you each do what you specialize in. So he was talking about this with one of the things that you always advise a young entrepreneur to do is how much time are you spending on things that you're not good at that somebody else could do that you could throw money at accounting. Bookkeeping becomes like the first one where people just waste a lot of time. And so you say, okay, don't do that. And he uses a great example. Destiny, you're really good at streaming. Go do the streaming. Let an accountant handle the bookkeeping. The thing that you do that generates money is the streaming. Go do more of that, a hundred percent. When you start talking about a country where you have global politics at play, where you have a potential war between you and another country, you have to say that is an end state that you want to protect against. So if you come back out to the 30,000 foot view and you say, okay, physics of progress known end state known KPI. So I'm saying one of the KPI's is you have to be able to control your military manufacturing. We don't do that right now because the future of military is largely drones. China basically controls all drones. This is way oversimplified, but we'll give you an example of what I'm talking about. So now, even though China is far more efficient at creating drones than we are, we have an obligation to protect ourselves from a future military conflict that's largely drones and controlled by China. You don't want to be in that position. Just like if we were about to go to war with Canada, I would not want them controlling our electricity. So even if they can supply it along the northern border for cheaper than we can, if I knew that we were going to be in a potential conflict, I mean insert Israel and Gaza. Gaza should control its own electricity 100%. You should immediately go, I can't have these people who are wildly antagonistic towards us controlling our electricity. That's crazy. So we've got to find a way to completely wean ourselves off of them. Now people are going to argue that there's reasons why they can't. Whatever, just you get the concept. So if you use business where the people work for you and therefore you can do the specialization across the country, sorry, across the company that you have other companies, if you can trust them to continue to supply you, which speaking from experience, you can't always, when we were small, we couldn't trust that other companies wouldn't try to choke off our access to protein. Therefore we've got to make sure that we diversify, that we've got it coming from multiple sources. So depending on the level of analysis, you can parallel countries and companies, if you're not careful, you will start making decisions that don't make sense when you try to try to draw a one for one parallel.
Will Ahmed
Larry Fink had some words for Trump about deportation and about this kind of goes back to our conversation at the last live when we talked about is it a problem where there's not enough American workers to take those jobs or do we actually need immigrants to fill in the gaps in the American economy?
Tom Bilyeu
I do believe deportations and the speed at which this happening is going to have severe impact on the agricultural sector and the construction sector. I've talked to CEOs in the ag sector and they remind me that 70% of the men and women who work in the ag culture were not born in the United States. Many of them are US Citizens now. Many of them have work permits, and many of them don't. And 40% of the construction workers were not born in the United States. You add that up and what's going on, I think we're going to start seeing, especially when spring and the spring crops arrive, are we going to have enough workers to harvest the crops? All right. And now one of the most fascinating things to me about this era where we're able to see all of these talks, because they're posted on YouTube or X in this case, is that, bro, there are fucking laws. What's happening? Like, this guy is literally just admitting, yeah, the way the world works is we all just completely ignore the law, and we want these people that come into America that are working under the table for lower wages. And, hey, it better continue, man. I'm over here warning Trump, like, bro, you got to let these people stay even though they're illegal. What the hell? Like, this is where I'm like, hey, by all means, go advocate for different policies. Go to the American people and say, dear American people, we don't believe that you're going to take these jobs, and therefore, we're going to increase immigration from places where we think we'll get a generation of really cheap labor. And you guys are going to love it. You're going to benefit from it and let the American people go. Either fuck you or, yep, we're here for it. But this is nuts. This, like, quiet behind the scenes. Like, well, everybody knows that, you know, these are all being done by illegal immigrants. Like, what? The policies, people, policies. Like, get the policies that you believe in that you're willing to stand up for and say, yes, this is the policy. Like, it's bananas that we want. Like, look, laws are enforced selectively. If someone is rushing their wife to the hospital and they are driving fast, I would want the cops to show up and be like, hey, get behind us. We're going to get you there and make sure that your baby's safe. So there is a difference between the spirit of the law and the letter of the law. But when you start scaling that shit, it's like. Like, just say what it is. Like, say what the thing is and let people decide. This is that whole elite mentality of, like, all right, we're gonna have some laws on the books, but we know what's actually best for America, and you guys are gonna be good. Like, that's crazy town. So we are in a competition Right now, where basically what we're saying to the world is, do you want really cheap shit or do you want to be able to work for a living? That's it. Because if you don't let cheap labor into the country, then you have options. Option one, we're going to import our fruit from other places. And we say, yeah, we really aren't willing to do these shops, so we're going to now outsource that kind of stuff. Put yourself in a very dicey position because now you don't make your own food. Yikes, don't love that. But it's an option. Option number two is we don't let these people in the country. And now farmers like fucking, I'm going to have to pay more money to get people to come deal with my crops. Or honestly what I think would happen is you would see investments into innovation that would allow us to drive the cost down. And this is why when you create these distortions in the market, distortions in this case being allowing illegal people to come in and do it for less, you don't get the innovation. The innovation here is turning a blind eye to illegal immigrants. I would just say either get people to say, yeah, I want this stuff to be cheap and I want to do it by importing immigrants, then don't make it illegal. Just say this is what it is and let people in. But if you're not willing to say what you're actually doing, like this is nuts. Free speech is one of the most important things in the world. And the guy Mahmoud, if he has not done anything that violates the definition of free speech as the US government has laid it out, then I say you protect the life out of that. And free speech is about letting people say things that you think are abhorrent. So as long as it doesn't become a call for violence, etc. Etc. Whether that person is a citizen or not, I think people should be protected with free speech laws. Now having said that, I think that immigration is a very important question to get right. I think we do have a culture. I think we want to acknowledge that America has a culture. And I think you to absolutely avoid with aggression bringing people in and not expecting them to assimilate. You do not want to invite multiculturalism as very different from being a multi ethnic culture. Multi ethnic cultures. Yay, love. But if you're coming to America, you should be coming here to become American, as I would be if I moved to Japan. I'd be going to Japan to embrace Japanese culture. Otherwise I should stay in America. So I feel very strongly that if. If you are talking about who are the people that we are going to invite into the country, who are the people that we're going to give citizenship to? Yeah, I'm totally here for people saying, this is not. Even though they're protected by free speech. This is not somebody that we want to give a green card to. This is not somebody that we want to become a citizen because they do not embrace American values. Yeah, cool. Here for that. But having people say whatever they believe to be true, as long as it doesn't violate the things that the United States Supreme Court has already rendered a verdict on, that's crazy to me. That would be a huge mistake.
Will Ahmed
And a federal judge has blocked Trump's attempt from deporting the green card holder. And Palestinian activist Mahmoud Khalil, he was one who led the protests at Columbia University.
Tom Bilyeu
Word. So now it becomes a question of what can you do? What legal standing would you use if you want to not give somebody like that citizenship? The way that Lisa and I think about this in the company is everything needs to be done at the policy level. So don't do anything specifically about this guy. Just say, this is what's true about green cards. These are the people that we're going to give citizenship to. If you meet these qualifications. Whether you're saying things that I don't like or not is totally irrelevant. This is the standard for a green card. To get a green card. This is the standard for going from green card to citizenship. And then either he meets those qualifications or he doesn't. You should not be targeting people that you think I fucking hate their views. That is a mistake. That is quickly how you go. All right, the president gets to decide what qualifies for a thing that can be said and can't be said. That. That is absolutely a path to ruin.
Will Ahmed
Yeah, that was a tough one. All right.
Tom Bilyeu
Why is that tough? The immigration side is way tougher for me. The free speech side is easy. Immigration hard. If called for violence, no. If saying thing I hate, yes, as long as you're not calling for violence. So if this guy's saying, down with America, capitalism's evil. This should be a communist country. All Christians should repent and should convert to Islam. Cool. If you say all Christians should be killed. Problem.
Will Ahmed
There's that line. It's just the thing of policing protesters. And there's no. Everybody wants free speech until it's something that you don't want to be said.
Tom Bilyeu
Yeah, exactly. This is why I think it was the ACL. Please fact check me, but this was in the 60s or 70s. The ACL stood up for the Klan's right to march in a town in Wisconsin, somewhere in middle America where there were a bunch of concentration camp survivors and the Klan wanted to march, or the neo Nazis, whatever they were, they were very anti Jewish and they fought for their right to be able to do that march because they said even though we think that their beliefs are abhorrent, they have the right to say it. Dude, I'm still on that bandwagon. Let people say what they believe to be true because I want to be able to say what I believe to be true. And if one government is saying, oh, these are the bad guys, I know when they get voted out of power, which they will, and the other group comes in, I might become the bad guy. So I want the people that I believe are the bad guys to be able to say whatever the fuck they want as long as it doesn't violate the things that the Supreme Court has already ruled on. And I. The, the impulse to silence people is so misguided. And I get it, it's strong. But your, your government is not going to be in power forever. And so you should want a system that when the roles are reversed, protects you.
Will Ahmed
Full stop.
Tom Bilyeu
Full stop. But the immigration one, that gets trickier. Should this guy be allowed to become a citizen? Should he be allowed to keep his green card? Woof. That gets a lot tougher. That gets a lot tougher because you do not want to invite a bunch of people into your country who hate the values that your culture stands for. That, to me, is bad mojo. Yeah, that is very unwise.
Will Ahmed
Ukraine has agreed to a 30 day ceasefire and this is on the backs of the Zelensky Vance scuffle that happened. So I'm glad that we were able to kind of resolve and find something back to peace. We had a video that Mark Rubio did a press conference for cnn. We have that coverage.
Tom Bilyeu
For that the Ukrainians have accepted, which is to enter into a ceasefire and into immediate negotiations to end this conflict in a way that's enduring and sustainable and accounts for their interests, their security, their ability to prosper as a nation. I want to personally thank, we both want to thank the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia's majesty for hosting us, for making this possible. They've been instrumental in this process and we're very grateful to them for hosting us here today. And hopefully we'll take this offer now to the Russians and we hope that they'll say yes. That they'll say yes to peace. The ball is now in their court. But again, the President's objective here is number one above everything else, he wants the war to end. And I think today Ukraine has taken a concrete step in that regard. We hope the Russians will reciprocate. Today we made an offer that the Ukrainians have accepted, which is to enter into a cease. Yeah. We're about to find out if Russia is going to create a problem, because they've really stood on. There will be no ceasefire. So they want, like, a proper negotiated settlement, period, end of story. This is where we're at. This is now done. So we'll see. It will be very interesting to see. What I like is this paints Trump into a corner about now. Are you just going to back Russia and be like, well, you know, having further looked at this, actually, the deal that we got Ukraine to agree to, that wasn't really great. God, if he does that, like, that really is a signal that homeboy is just batting for Russia. But if he's like, what the fuck? Like, Russia's been offered something they really should take. We're going to start pressuring them like, they are now acting in bad faith. It'll be telling. We're gonna see.
Will Ahmed
He did have that tweet a couple days ago where he was talking tough to Russia, saying that they need to chill. We got the negotiations on. On board. So with every. With all signs pointing, it does seem like the ball is in Russia's court to end this war if they want to.
Tom Bilyeu
Well, the ball's always been in their court in terms of they could end the war at any moment. The question is, now that Ukraine has said, okay, this is actually something that we'll take. Does Russia come to the table and go, okay, cool, like, we're close. Let's really negotiate this out. And since I can see that this is close, let's agree to a ceasefire. Or do they go not? We're either going to get everything we want or everybody can fuck right off. And then it's like, okay, now we know where we're at. This was nuts. Is this what we're about to look at?
Will Ahmed
Yes.
Tom Bilyeu
Oh, my God. To all the parents out there, you are really going to want to pay attention to this. This is banana. All right. Little girl goes on rampage inside of Walmart. Take it away. Absolute chaos broke out at a Walmart today after a little girl was rampaging in the store, grabbing anything she could see in sight and throwing it across the floor or stomping on it eventually, parents are stopping and wondering, hey, where's this little girl's parents? And she wanders all the way to the other side of the store. These two parents try to stop and restrain her so she can stop destroying things. But then other parents come up and say, hey, it's not your job. It's not your child. Maybe don't stop her. So they say, help, I guess. So they let her go. She keeps going on, rampaging throughout the store. The craziest part to me, this white girl keeps following her, yelling, hey, don't touch her. Don't yell at her. Don't touch her. Don't yell at her. She could one day be the president. Now, you can see here the store employees are just watching it happen. Pause it for a second. Powerless to do anything. She could one day be the president. Cool. I love it. Let's say that she does end up being the president. Are people worried that she's going to be like, I remember that. That restrained me in Walmart, like, that chick, I'm coming after you and your whole family. What? I don't understand that argument. All right, keep playing it because the fun continues. The door tells them not to do anything. Now, eventually, she walks over these glass bottles, starts throwing them, shattering glass and juice all over the floor. This man runs up to try to stop her, and the white girl shows up again. So it's like, don't you touch her. Don't you touch her. You don't know what she's been through. As if that's an extra excuse to let her go on a rampage. Now, I think the situation is insane for two reasons. One, where the girl's parents, and two, this girl that was following her around saying, hey, nobody touch her, nobody yell at her, nobody trying to stop her is absolutely insane. As if the best thing to do to a child that's freaking out is just let them break everything around them. That's my opinion. Let me know what you think of the comments. Make sure to follow if you want to stay up to date with the latest news.
Will Ahmed
Wait, that's the end of the video. We don't find out whose parent this is.
Tom Bilyeu
Yo, bro, that is crazy town. So speaking as a Gen Xer, let me just tell you how this would have played out if that had been me. Somebody would have grabbed me by the arm, and I want to read Shay's thing, so don't go too far. Someone would have grabbed me by the arm and been like, where's your mom? And you're not touching another thing. This is madness. They would have gone to my mom and said, you're paying for the damage that this kid did. And so there was a whole thing back then. You break it, you buy it. And my mom would have spanked my ass with a wooden spoon and been like, you're out of your mind. And she would have been right. That's crazy. And so you hold the parent accountable by making them pay for the things that are broken. You hold the child accountable. If you're the parent and psu restrain that child. Not violently, but as I think this is where Jordan has the right idea. The minimum force necessary to restrain the child. That is lunacy. All right, I want to see Shay, who I know and love. She says, okay, parent speaking here. There has been proof that media and tech interaction has caused kids brains to start reacting as addicts. But yes, it takes a village. Inordinate. Inordinate. Inordinate behavior has to be stopped. Let's say crazy behavior, but also attention to the child. The rampage happened and no one is in sight. That she quote unquote, belongs to. Yeah, so there's. There's a lot of madness going on here. But you can't let a child run right like that. That kid does not grow up to be well adjusted. I will just tell you right now.
Will Ahmed
Yeah, it makes no sense to me. It's like I feel like I just watched like a horror movie and like the killer just. And kills everybody and just walks out there and then the credits roll. I'm like, wait, what? Like, no.
Tom Bilyeu
You want to know how this happens? Yes.
Will Ahmed
Like there's no. What? No way.
Tom Bilyeu
No way.
Will Ahmed
Like I would have yoked her. I don't care. The. The girl who said would president. Well, you and the president can get outside. Like that's crazy. That's. You're throwing glass bottles around. Like that's like that's nuts.
Tom Bilyeu
That's nuts. That. That is unhinged.
Will Ahmed
Nah.
Tom Bilyeu
Yeah, I'm not sure, Miggy. They didn't necessarily learn it from somewhere. A kid will test the rules. What they learned is that they can get away with absolute murder and nobody's going to check them. And they can just keep going and keep going and keep going. Professor Niji with Mouse Utopia. Okay, I've actually done some research. Shout out to please God. What if Altist, who I know has had his own troubles, but he's the one that brought up Mouse experiment. That basically when things go too well and populations are allowed to grow unchecked without any sort of restraining impulse, they actually implode and start, like, attacking each other. It is absolutely fascinating that there is some sort of tripwire that makes the human psyche implode when it doesn't have difficulty to deal with. And the Matrix got this right in the movie, if you haven't seen it, can't believe how old it is now that there's a lot of people that haven't seen it in the movie. The creators of the Matrix, who have, quote, unquote, slave, enslaved humanity, they say, we built you a utopia and you rejected it. Like, we lost entire crops of humans because they could not deal with a utopia. They couldn't deal with things being okay. They need problems. They need a thing to harden them, to push back. I will also say trees that you that grow up inside of a dome will fall over because there's no wind. They're never tested. And so they don't have to go strong, grow stronger. So they end up folding under their own weight, which is absolutely fascinating. The human immune system, if it is not assailed by germs, it will grow weak. And so you actually need difficulty. Like, I am so grateful. Shout out to my mom. My mom is the only thing that kept me from running riot. I have so much respect for my mom because I would test the limits. And every time I tested the limits with my mom, I found a limit. She was like, nope, not doing that. And whatever it takes, we're gonna draw a line. And my favorite story of my mom was, I had a friend who came into school one day. We were 13. He comes into school one day and he said, my mom tried to slap me, and I blocked her. And she just broke down in tears. And my mom's never gonna touch me again. I now am in control. And I was like, bro, the next time my mom tries to slap me, I'm gonna block her. This is gonna be so gangster. I can't believe I never thought to do it. So one point, I remember where I was standing at the front door about to leave for school, and I'm pushing my mom and pushing, and she's telling me to do something. I'm like, no, I'm not gonna do it. No, no, no. She goes to slap me. Boom. Block it. And I'm like, gotcha. And she goes to slap me on the other side. And I was like, whoa. And I blocked that side. She caught me with the third one. And I remember standing there and being like, my mom's built different. I was like, respect. And I was like, oh, got it. Cool. Okay. My mom's not here for play. Like, when she came with the third one, I was like, I didn't expect it. I was like, I defeated both sides.
Will Ahmed
What do you mean? It's on slide now. I won. I'm the new champion.
Tom Bilyeu
And my mom was just like, no, no, no, we're not gonna play. Like, this is the line. And the thing is, in my mom's defense, I was legitimately being a little ass, and I was just seeing, like, how far I can push it. And there was a line, and there was not going to be any crossing
Will Ahmed
it for me, having a daughter, I didn't want it to be okay that, like, I'm allowed to hit her. So I have a weird, like, line of, like, beating my, like, beating her.
Tom Bilyeu
Well, I wouldn't beat. That's a pretty terrible. Okay. I would never say my mom beat me.
Will Ahmed
Spank. I would. I wouldn't. Yeah, I wouldn't spank Lane. But I have like, a good, like, flick thing that I do that kind of just annoys her at the. The right amount.
Tom Bilyeu
And it just, like, dog whispery shit.
Will Ahmed
Yeah, yeah. Just a little, like, thing. My mom used to do, like, an ear thing where, like, I'll be at the church and she would, like, do this. I'm like, ah. And that's like, it didn't hurt, but it was just, like a public shaming kind of thing. Cause I'm like, did other people see that? Like, it was different. So I think that there is levels, but for a child to do that in Walmart, she has to have done that at home. She had, like.
Tom Bilyeu
And gotten away with it.
Will Ahmed
Yes. Kids don't. Kids don't just wake up one day like, okay, I'm gonna terrorize everything. It's like, no, I'm a test one limit. Okay, I get away with this. I'm gonna test this limit. Oh, I could do whatever I want at the house. Well, maybe I could do whatever I want at Walmart. So there's an escalation that you should have. This should have been addressed years ago, let alone to say, look at this video and say, she's just tripping or something bad happened or there's something that led up to this. This doesn't just come out of nowhere.
Tom Bilyeu
Yeah. I think kids are programmed to push the limits, see where the boundaries are. From an evolutionary standpoint, it's good. You want kids to push and, like, get out there and try to take control of their own destiny and all that, because ultimately they're gonna have to completely reject their parents and survive on so it's good that they test the limits to find out where the limits are. But if there are no limits, you now have a problem. And this used to be something that. Because people were. They were in a. A literal life and death situation, that you had to keep people in check because they would die or they would create a vulnerability in the tribe, and you couldn't have that. Uh, once that evolutionary pressure goes away, people start running some pretty crazy experiments. If you guys haven't already, please be sure to subscribe. Until next time, my friends. Be legendary. Take care. Peace.
Episode: "Dept of Education Slashed & Trump Tariffs Backfire! Are We Ready for What’s Next?"
Date: March 13, 2025
In this wide-ranging episode, Tom Bilyeu and co-host Will Ahmed tackle the week’s seismic headlines and societal changes. They break down the complexities behind the dramatic slashing of the Department of Education, analyze Trump’s tariff escalations and their global blowback, dissect AI’s explosive progress and potential impacts on jobs and business, and debate controversial topics like immigration policy and the future of relationships. Peppered with candid personal stories, critiques of government policy, and actionable insights, this episode brims with urgency and provocative challenges to conventional wisdom.
Timestamps: 00:45–12:00
AI Model Breakthroughs: Tom and Will discuss DeepSeek’s breakthrough in creating highly compressed, ultra-efficient AI models that outperform giants like GPT-4.0 and Claude 3.5—even running powerful models offline on smartphones.
Impact on Product Development: Tom describes his hands-on work integrating AI into toys, aiming for affordable, interactive in-game characters.
Business Model Shifts: Tom predicts businesses will favor smaller, faster, and more nimble models due to technological acceleration, leading to waves of deflation and consumer upgrading cycles.
Analogy to the Dot-Com Boom: Will and Tom compare today's AI explosion to the late-90s Internet bubble—unknown big players may still emerge.
Timestamps: 06:34–12:00
Google & DeepMind Robotics: Discussion of cutting-edge robots capable of intricate tasks (packing lunches, folding origami) powered by new vision-language-action models.
Cross-Robot Learning: Tom explains the exponential power of networked robots learning from each other in real time:
Preparing for a Robotic World: Tom urges listeners to stay ahead by engaging with change, warning: "Standing still, pretending as if it isn't happening is the only mistake." (11:40)
Timestamps: 13:01–19:04
Timestamps: 19:05–24:23
AI Writing Code: Tom cites Anthropic’s prediction that AI will write over 90% of code within the year, foreshadowing massive professional disruption.
The Fate of Middle Skill Jobs: Tom foresees painful transitions—AI will leave millions behind unless people retrain and adapt, advocating reshoring manufacturing as an "off-ramp."
Timeline Debate: Will expresses skepticism about the immediacy, arguing most will need AI tools soon or risk obsolescence.
Timestamps: 25:37–41:33
Timestamps: 46:00–58:07
Policy Backdrop: Will and Tom break news of the Department of Education axing 50% of its staff, forcing an imminent restructuring.
Effectiveness Debate: Tom criticizes the DOE’s decades of limited results, demanding a true focus on outcomes and best practices (e.g., charter schools).
Privatization: Tom warns against full privatization but supports private options as benchmarks for public performance; wants tax dollars to create a new generation of intellectual "assassins."
Role of DOE: Will contextualizes that most school funding is local; DOE mainly supplements programs (loans, grants, special needs, Title IX protections).
Timestamps: 59:19–76:15
Tariff Escalation: Ontario threatened to cut U.S. electricity in response to Trump’s tariffs. Tom explains how Trump’s "chaos" approach, as detailed in The Art of the Deal, forces negotiation but carries high risks.
Comparative Advantage vs. National Security: Tom concedes tariffs break from economic orthodoxy, but insists on-shoring manufacturing is necessary to reduce U.S. vulnerabilities (esp. vis-à-vis China)—even at the expense of efficiency.
Market Distortion Risks: Both worry chaos may result in asset price crashes and long-term damage, with no guarantee of positive outcomes.
Timestamps: 76:15–85:26
Larry Fink’s Plea: BlackRock CEO Larry Fink urges Trump to retain undocumented workers to prevent crisis in agriculture and construction. Tom rails against industrial-scale "selective enforcement" of immigration law:
Market Solutions vs. Policy Clarity: Tom argues for honest policymaking—if cheap labor is desired, legalize it through proper channels, rather than quietly undercutting wages.
Free Speech & Immigration: Sharp distinction between defending citizens’ and immigrants’ rights to protest; warns against using speech as the litmus test for citizenship.
Timestamps: 85:26–87:36
Timestamps: 88:02–96:30
Viral Walmart Video: Tom and Will react to a clip of a child running amok in Walmart, noting generational change in discipline and accountability.
Consequences of Soft Boundaries: Both invoke evolutionary and psychological theories about the necessity of boundaries, referencing the famous "Mouse Utopia" experiment and The Matrix’s take on the dangers of unchecked ease.
This episode offers a whirlwind tour through the critical transformations shaking up 2025—from government policy upheaval and economic uncertainty, to the relentless march of AI and shifting cultural norms. Tom Bilyeu and Will Ahmed combine sharp analysis with personal stories and hard questions—imploring listeners to become adaptable, self-directed, and brutally honest in how they respond to disruption. Whether discussing education, immigration, global trade, or the future of love, the message is clear: The only real mistake is to pretend change isn’t happening.
For more clips, references, and community discussion, join the Impact Theory Discord.