The Political Power Play: Shutdowns, Spin, and the ACA’s Unintended Consequences | Tom Bilyeu Show

Summary

Impact Theory with Tom Bilyeu — November 13, 2025

Episode: The Political Power Play: Shutdowns, Spin, and the ACA’s Unintended Consequences

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Episode Overview

Tom Bilyeu and his co-host dive into the tangled web of power plays behind U.S. political headlines, focusing on the recent government shutdown, ongoing ACA (Obamacare) controversy, economic maneuvering, free speech battles worldwide, AI’s disruptive rise, and the fracturing culture. The hosts unpack the hidden incentives, the real cost of policies, and the soaring tension between establishment and populist factions in an unapologetically blunt style.

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Main Themes & Key Topics

• The 41-day government shutdown and its political fallout
• Democratic Party infighting: establishment vs. populist/progressive wings
• The Affordable Care Act's unintended consequences and critique of U.S. healthcare policy
• Economic power moves: Argentina currency swap and global strategy
• Lawfare, free speech, and the surging trend of information policing
• AI’s ascendance: economic bubbles, capital flows, and cultural disruption (including AI-generated music)
• Wealth inequality, market games, and impending economic risks

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In-Depth Breakdown by Segment

1. Government Shutdown: Symbolism Over Substance

[00:59–07:04]

• The shutdown lasted 41 days, but produced little meaningful policy change:
  • No movement on ACA subsidies or Democratic “wishlist” items.
  • Some language on agricultural aid, SNAP secured for another year.

Co-host:
“I feel like it’s a whole big nothing burger... 41 days to then like fumble the ball.” [01:45]

• Tom Bilyeu frames the shutdown as a calculated move—not about healthcare, but a high-level power game:
  • Schumer keeps his party in the spotlight, shifting blame to Trump.
  • Internal Democratic strife: “establishment” pragmatists vs. “populist” progressives.
  • Eight Democrats “cave” to reopen the government—they weren’t at political risk, suggesting backroom strategy.

Tom Bilyeu:
“It wasn’t about the Affordable Care Act in the first place. This wasn’t about benefits for the poor and working class. It’s about power. It’s always about power.” [06:28]

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2. Democratic Populists, Strategy, and “The Mamdani Wing”

[07:04–10:31]

• Debate on who leads the Democratic left: “Bernie’s wing” (progressives) or realignment under new figures like Mamdani and AOC.
• Tom highlights the modern political reality: grabbing “attention”—mastery of media and algorithms—is the essential political skill.
• The populist left, he argues, keeps pushing for ever-bigger entitlements, while Schumer-caliber operators play long political games.

Memorable Exchange:
Tom: “Bernie is basically a corpse.” [07:18]
Co-host: “Bernie was the OG populist back in 2008... He’s Dr. Dre.” [07:26–07:33]
Tom: “If you want to get elected, you have to get attention.” [08:15]

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3. The Affordable Care Act (ACA): Perverse Incentives and Systemic Dysfunction

[10:46–17:01]

• Tom’s critical take: the ACA is exacerbating the healthcare system’s dysfunction, arguing that government subsidies drive prices up by eliminating competition and accountability.
• Real example: procedures cost more with insurance than without due to distorted incentives [17:01].
• The hosts agree on the need for reform—but Tom insists on the importance of competition and market forces.

Tom Bilyeu:
“I’m coming to believe the ACA is an atrocity... we have a wildly dysfunctional healthcare system.” [10:46]
“If you have insurance, then you get the insurance cost. If you don’t have insurance, then you get a discount—that is so maddening.” [17:01]

• Co-host counters with context: lifting the individual mandate in 2017 broke ACA’s math, pushing up premiums (healthy people exit the pool) [13:47–14:27].

Notable Analogy:
Tom: “The over-consumption of sugar... these are self-inflicted wounds. And so we’ve got a healthcare system that is going broke under a whole lot of stupidity.” [15:24]

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4. Economic Power Moves: Argentina and the Messaging War

[26:49–34:49]

• Currency Swap with Argentina:
  • Journalist criticizes U.S. lending $20B to Argentina (“bailout”).
  • Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant (via clip) insists it supports an ally and arguably profits the U.S.

Scott Bessant:
“We use the US Balance sheet to bolster a great ally of the United States. I call it peace through economic strength.” [29:52]

• Tom’s insight: Bessant is a “multi-billionaire Wall Street gladiator,” arguing that economic moves must consider bigger strategic battles (China, South America). [33:00]

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5. Lawfare, Lawsuits, and the Weaponization of the Legal System

[34:49–41:11]

• Candace Owens and others denounce lawsuit threats as attempts to silence critics, referencing the $5M suit against Elijah Schaefer for posting a public photo.
• Tom and co-host argue public actors must tolerate criticism and “lawfare” is a dangerous trend.

Tom Bilyeu:
“You don’t hate lawfare enough... deal with it.” [35:23, 36:33]

Co-host:
“I think people are being sensitive. Yeah, that’s it.” [37:56]

• Entertaining banter on public spectacle, trolling, and freedom to mock public figures [38:33–41:11].

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6. Information Policing and Free Speech Threats

[42:20–45:59]

• South Korea’s new president criminalizes “hate speech and misinformation”—declaring it “a threat to democracy.”
• Tom’s response is full-throated outrage:

Tom Bilyeu:
“If you find yourself saying disinformation should be made illegal, you’re a categorical moron. You need to be immediately removed from office... That is the most draconian 1984 shit ever.” [43:03]

• Argues progress is impossible without open dissent and honest error.

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7. The AI Market Bubble and Tech Sector Volatility

[47:13–59:19]

• Major investors (SoftBank, Buffett) ditch Nvidia stock; Michael Burry calls it “fraud.”
• Tech sector trading at huge premium (46x earnings)—signs of a bubble.
• Sam Altman’s confidence at OpenAI is met with skepticism; “Enron vibes” and the problem of “too big to fail.”

Tom Bilyeu:
“If you play a long game and you’re diversified, you actually do end up winning… But you’ve got to be completely unemotional.” [52:22]

Tom on Sam Altman:
“Sam Altman strikes me as a survivor. But even more than I read into what he’s saying, I read into the way that he’s saying it. Admittedly it’s a pretty good clapback.” [57:03]

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8. Wealth Inequality, Political Risk, and Social Unrest

[59:19–64:08]

• Tom warns that wealth inequality, not economic downturns per se, historically triggers revolutions and violence—“left and right start killing each other at an accelerating rate and that causes revolution.”
• Economic pressures (immigration, shrinking resources) fueling current political and cultural polarization.

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9. AI Disruption: Culture, Music, and Inevitable Change

[64:08–66:26]

• AI-generated country and R&B songs now top Billboard charts.
• Tom embraces the change, urging listeners to use new tools and adapt.

Tom Bilyeu:
“I really like it. It’s already in the rotation... Every time we fought against technology, it worked. Oh, wait a second, no it didn’t. Not once, ever.” [64:25, 64:39]

• Predicts a transitional decade that will be “unfun,” but ultimately, technological advance will win out.

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Notable Quotes

• “It’s about power. It’s always about power.” — Tom Bilyeu [06:28]
• “I’m coming to believe the ACA is an atrocity... we have a wildly dysfunctional healthcare system.” — Tom Bilyeu [10:46]
• “If you find yourself saying disinformation should be made illegal, you’re a categorical moron.” — Tom Bilyeu [43:03]
• “Skills have utility. The people that actually know something... they’re going to win.” — Tom Bilyeu [45:59]
• “If you play a long game and you’re diversified, you actually do end up winning.” — Tom Bilyeu [52:22]
• “Lawfare to me is dumb...” — Tom Bilyeu [39:54]
• “Every time we fought against technology, it worked. Oh, wait a second, no it didn’t. Not once, ever.” — Tom Bilyeu [64:39]

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Timestamps of Major Segments

• Shutdown and ACA Fallout ............. [00:59–10:31]
• Populist Dems & Political Tactics .... [07:04–10:31]
• Healthcare System/Dysfunction ........ [10:46–17:01]
• Argentina Currency Swap/Economics .... [26:49–34:49]
• Lawfare & Lawsuits ................... [34:49–41:11]
• Free Speech Crisis (S. Korea) ........ [42:20–45:59]
• AI Market Bubble ..................... [47:13–59:19]
• Wealth Inequality & Risk ............. [59:19–64:08]
• AI Culture Disruption ................ [64:08–66:26]

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Tone & Takeaways

The episode is rapid-fire, frank, and cutting, pulling few punches as Tom and his co-host grapple with the motives driving today’s politics and economics. Their tone is irreverent, skeptical of all sides, embracing hard truths and challenging easy narratives while urging listeners to adapt, question, and plan for volatility.

Big takeaway: In today’s world, look beneath the headlines—power, incentives, and systemic forces are the real drivers. Don’t expect the establishment or populists to have your interests at heart, and prepare for continual disruption in both politics and technology.

Transcript

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[Tom Bilyeu]

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[Tom Bilyeu]

Eight Democrats cave, and it looks like the government is set to reopen soon. The debate continues to rage, though, over the Affordable Care Act. Besant slaps a reporter around for not knowing what a currency swap is and swears we made money off of it. Kash Patel's girlfriend is way out of pocket and sues a social media personality for posting her public photo in the comments of a post. Everyone seems to be selling Nvidia stock and Sam Altman is still looking for a bailout. South Korea's new president has made disinformation a crime that must be punished, as it is now considered a threat to democracy and an AI country singer hit number one on the Billboard charts and I've got to admit, the song is an absolute banger.

[Guest/Co-host (Political Analyst)]

Let's talk about the shutdown because I feel like it's a whole big nothing burger. We spent 41 days shut down and there was no additional bill passed. There was some language about farmers and things like that, but nothing. That was what we were fighting about. The ACA subsidies didn't budge. SNAP was solidified for the next year so that way they can't get held up again. But what Democrats said they wanted the subsidies that come back, all the things that they listed. This is why we're standing out. None of those things have happened. And I feel like from that perspective, you did 41 days to then like fumble the ball.

[Tom Bilyeu]

You're going to have to look at this from the perspective of does this push Schumer out of power? If he push. If it pushed Schumer out of power, then it was a complete loss. And I don't know what was in his head, I don't know what he was actually going for. But they won the sort of midterm midterms. I don't know what the right thing to call that is, but there was a blue wave. And if that wasn't a wake up call for everybody knowing that we're going to start campaigning in the summer. And so you better get your shit together because we are a year out from midterms. And if they happened right now, the Republicans would get their ass handed to them. So Trump is doing a God awful job of either delivering the actual goods. Although, like, if you listen to Besson, it's like things might be better than they seem. Or he's just spinning, so we'll find out. All politicians do a spin. So if Trump is doing a bad job at communicating it or it just isn't happening. And Schumer was like, I just need the government to be shut down right, right now. So people see like we're fighting for the every person, which of course they're not, but if we can create that image, then we're going to win. And they did win. So if he is like some next level political genius who's like, no, no, no. That needed to be the story. I needed people to believe, like, we're here, we're fighting for you guys. But really I just need the Trump administration to look bad, to like, hey, they run the government and they could do this if they wanted, but they don't. And they just want to steamroll you guys and they want to double your, your health care costs and they don't care if you're starving to death. Right? So it was a battle of everybody was saying the other person is responsible. But clearly right now, Trump is in a weak position. People are not feeling it. So they're like, just give me the other guy, whoever the other guy is, I don't really care, just not him. So if you had said, tom, predict what the Democrats are saying right now, I would have said, oh, they're stoked that he got the blue wave and they're all behind him, but obviously they're not. And so they're having their own internal civil war. They really are pissed. Half of them really are pissed about the fact that they didn't get the ACA stuff. So it's like this is starting to feel like, call it establishment Democrats which are playing one game, and then populist Democrats which are playing another game. The populist Democrats, I'm telling you right now, they are being led. Their spirit animal is Mamdani. Okay? You. You. He may not be the one in the room telling them what to do, but their spirit animal is Mom, Donnie, for sure. I. I'm ten toes down on that one. So you've got that side. All they want is, like, top down, give people more, spend more free stuff. Like, that's all that matters. And so you didn't. You, Chuck Schumer, did not get more free stuff added to the big, beautiful bill. The big beautiful catastrophe that would be BBC. I don't know that we want to go with that one, but you heard it here first. Uh, so, yeah, the. The very catastrophic bill. We want to make it more catastrophic. So all of that is at least trackable. You can understand that you've got two wings now of the Democratic Party that are really clearly establishing their identity. You've got politics is normal. You've got Schumer going, listen, there's a political game here that you guys aren't playing that I. We can get what we want. But it really has at least temporarily eroded his position in the party, as far as I can see. Like, you've got a lot of big voices, including Ro Khanna coming after Schumer and saying, you're feckless. Like, you didn't get us any of the things that we were actually fighting for. So I think that part of the party feels very blindsided by, oh, wait, like, this was all just political bullshit. You weren't actually interested in any of that stuff, which is why you sent out the eight Democrats. This is people's read on it that he sent out the eight Democrats saying, I didn't authorize this. What are you talking about? But in reality, Closed Room tells the eight Democrats who just happen to not be up for election at midterms and says, all right, you guys go cave. Let's get the government open back up. We got what we actually wanted, which was to get these other people elected across the country, to get the gerrymandering done in California, to get the new da like, you know, all the different things that went blue. We got it. So now we're good. And this wasn't about the Affordable Care act in the first place. This wasn't about benefits for the poor and working class. It's about power. It's always about power.

[Guest/Co-host (Political Analyst)]

Yeah, I would agree with you, but I do have to push back, because if it was the Mamdani wing that was kind of up in arms, I would and even calling it the Mom Danny Wing, it's really Bernie's wing. And Mamdani is just a spawn of that.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Bernie is basically a corpse. He.

[Guest/Co-host (Political Analyst)]

Bernie was the OG populist back in 2008. He didn't make it.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Bernie is Dr. Dre. It's like, if you're old, Dr. Dre is like, yo, it's Dr. Dre.

[Guest/Co-host (Political Analyst)]

Then that would make your 50 Cent. And then I make Mom Donnie, like, eminent.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Well, no, because I think AOC is still young enough that she is part of the Mamdani wing. She just is. You're used to her now, so she might move up on the national stage. She might become, like, the president. But if you want to know the candidate, if you want to know who has the energy, he's just going all the way. He's saying, like, the full things. That even, like, an AOC is not all the way out in the way, that he. Like, he has actually said, seize the means of production. Now, people want to believe that in the last three years, like, he's had some sort of epiphany, that the only epiphany he's had is, oh, I can't say those words and get elected. Cool. Got you. I'll keep them in my back pocket. But I'm telling you, like, if either he just blows with the wind, in which case, what are you actually voting for? Or he has an internal worldview, and that internal worldview is socialist, which seems pretty easy to believe.

[Guest/Co-host (Political Analyst)]

He could be updating his mental model as he learns new information.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Listen, listen. He could be. I will not doubt that at all. But I will need to see policy moves that make me believe that there are new foundations here, which I do not see. I think that he has energized his base. He's a very slick politician. He knows what he can and can't say, and he's just getting better at that game. But, dude, the mountain of stuff that you can find of him just saying the most unhinged shit. So, anyway, I think this is somebody with a very deft mental model in that he understands there are certain things you can say in public. There are certain things that you can't. I think that he has become a lightning rod for social attention, which is the lifeblood for any politician. I want to be very clear. If you want to get elected, you have to get attention. Attention. To get attention, you either need money or you need the ability to win over the algorithm. He understands how to win over the algorithm. So he's able to get that like bottom up. Literally. I teach this to entrepreneurs. So if somebody comes into zero founder or they come into Billion Dollar CEO, one of the first things I tell them because they will ask all the time, like, how do I do paid advertising well? And the answer to doing paid advertising well is to be so good at organic, unpaid content that you're just putting a couple, you know, bucks behind it and it takes off like crazy because the content organically is just so good. He's so good at it that if you give him a dollar of campaign funds, he's going to be able to make it perform like 10. Unlike somebody like Schumer who just does not know how to get attention. And so AOC was that. And I think that she still is contemporary enough. She's just not hot, she's not new enough. Whereas he's like, he's pushed even farther. He's new. And so there's always just the like, oh, like I haven't seen this before. He has shown them. Oh, there's a winning strategy here from a populist standpoint. We're hitting pause for a moment, but there's plenty more ahead, so don't go anywhere.

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[Tom Bilyeu]

Only nine out of the 10 largest banks get it. They get that. VantageScore, the modern credit score, is the leader in predictive power, improving mortgage default predictions and saving lenders billions. Better predictions. Better for your business with VantageScore. Thanks for sticking around. Let's get right back into the action. The Affordable Care Act, I am coming to believe early days. Early days, but I'm coming to believe is an atrocity and that it can be blamed for how high the prices are. Or it's part of the blame that we have a wildly dysfunctional health care system and so trying to force the government to just pay more and more of that, which will exacerbate the problem because you have a flywheel of government subsidies are the very thing that create this perverse incentive for insurance companies to go. It's $600 if you're not insured. It's $1300 if you are insured. That's crazy. That is toxic. That is extremely bad. And that is where we are. So I'm saying I don't want them to get More subsidies for the aca. I want them to solve that problem.

[Guest/Co-host (Political Analyst)]

But are those your principles or their principles? Because if those are.

[Tom Bilyeu]

That's what I'm saying. So I believe my principles represent math. But yes, those are my principles. And so I'm saying they should have fought for it. I would have more respect for them if they, instead of running a gain and retain strategy, they were running. This is actually what's right for my constituents. So this is a thing or what

[Guest/Co-host (Political Analyst)]

I believe what is right for.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Like, listen, we're all going to be wrong. I. A key part of my philosophy is that I always believe I'm right, but I'm not always right. So I have to factor that into the way in which I pursue my own agendas. Like, I've got to be thoughtful. There are times where it's like, yeah, this shouldn't be left up to only me, et cetera, et cetera. So I would have respected their approach, even though I hate what they're fighting for. If they had said, this is really the thing that we believe is right, we're going to go all the way now, I would have been arguing vociferously for them to recognize that's terrible, that they are fighting for the wrong thing, that they have the wrong North Star. But I would have respected that they were fighting for the thing that they actually believed, if that's what they actually believed. But I am always surprised by people's behavior when I run the. Oh, they have a moral compass and they're just doing the thing that they think is best. And I'm never confused when I go, this is a gain and retain strategy. So, uh, listen, there are people like Ro Khanna. He does seem pretty consistent. I won't lie. I think he's just wrong about a lot of things. But he really does seem to be like, this is the thing I believe, therefore I'm going after this thing. So it's like, I have respect for him. I can sit down with him. I think he's crazy. I think he's going to make horrendous mistakes for the country, but he seems worthy of respect.

[Guest/Co-host (Political Analyst)]

Yeah. Now diving into the Affordable Care Act, I think that we're playing Monday morning quarterback for a lot of it when we have this conversation. ACA is terrible. It's horrible. We should dismantle it. It should be struck out of the law immediately. And then we didn't take a step back to say, how did we get here? And we don't think about the insurance, the individual mandate being lifted. In 2017, when Trump was in office, which was a tent pole to make the math of the ACA kind of make sense. For those that don't know, the ACA was supposed to be modeled similarly to Social Security, where everybody's required to have insurance whether you have it or not, from your job or not. That's why the marketplace was spun up to begin with. So that way healthier young people are still paying into the system and not just the sick people who have insurance.

[Tom Bilyeu]

That is God awful. I hate that so much.

[Guest/Co-host (Political Analyst)]

Absolutely. It was either that or 30 million people not have insurance. So we decided that the 30 million people having insurance was more important than everybody chipping in. Everybody's required to have car insurance. Now you're required to have health insurance. That was the kind of the justification in 2017 that individual mandate was removed. So now you don't get penalized if you don't have insurance. So of course younger people flee and then that raised overall costs, period. Okay, go ahead.

[Tom Bilyeu]

If you knew that 60% of drivers drive drunk every day, like they only ever drive drunk every time they get behind the wheel they are drunk. How would you feel if I said, oh my God, there are so many car accidents. Like we can't keep doing this. Everybody has to have insurance. Oh, and by the way, because there's so many drunk driving accidents, the rates are through the roof. How would you feel?

[Guest/Co-host (Political Analyst)]

The same way I feel now when I pay health insurance, car insurance, even though I haven't had an accident in five years and my rate keeps going up bad. Yeah.

[Tom Bilyeu]

So we just took a really dumb system and made it even dumber. Now I'm a little hurt that you didn't ask what's the analogy with the drunk driving. But it is the over consumption of sugar. People are, it isn't just diabetes, but like these are self inflicted wounds. And so we've got a healthcare system that is going broke under a whole lot of stupidity because we're removing competition because the government is paying for everything.

[Guest/Co-host (Political Analyst)]

I mean, the people are going broke. It's not the healthcare system that's going broke. The healthcare system is doing fine. UnitedHealthcare is posting wins. Kaiser's posting wins.

[Tom Bilyeu]

The country is going broke.

[Guest/Co-host (Political Analyst)]

That is going. Yeah, they're going.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Because one of the many grotesque expenses that we have is subsidizing health care.

[Guest/Co-host (Political Analyst)]

If we were to go back, I know your austerity plan from your like the snap conversation we had last week. Some people just got to figure it out. Sorry, go to a church. They can Figure it out. Health care was supposed to be something different. We thought, okay, insurance, kicking people off who had cancer. That was wrong. We should make that a law that it's not that will require health care. But it seems like the, the energy going now is, yeah, those people should get kicked off their health care and they'll have to figure it out.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Is that you think that's what I'm saying?

[Guest/Co-host (Political Analyst)]

I think you're saying the ACA needs to be repealed. And I'm saying if you think that the ACA needs to be repealed, then preexisting conditions come back. And if preexisting conditions come back, people can then lose their health insurance. So that's the second order, cause and effect of repealing the ACA right now in this moment.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Yeah, well, so we have to separate right now in this moment from what does good policy look like?

[Guest/Co-host (Political Analyst)]

So are we starting at the beginning? We're here now that we can't start

[Tom Bilyeu]

the policy being here now?

[Guest/Co-host (Political Analyst)]

Yeah.

[Tom Bilyeu]

I am not a repeal it overnight. This is the same reason I'm like, if you told people, illegal immigrants or otherwise, you're going to get SNAP benefits, you can't just shut it off one day. You've got to say, all right, this is going to expire at this date. You've got 90 days, 120 days, whatever period of time, but a reasonable period of time for them to figure it out. So I don't support the just on, off switch. You told people you were going to do that thing. It's perfectly acceptable to change your policy, but there's a reason that laws usually give you some period of time to like, hey, this is coming to effect. It's going to go into effect in three tranches, whatever, so that people can adjust their behavior, adjust their lifestyle. So I would never say, hey, you've made all these promises, but just turn it off. That is not what I would do. But I think that there. We need to approach healthcare from the perspective of, from the physics of how these ecosystems work. How do we drive costs down? And we've not done that. We've done the exact opposite. And this is the big problem with big government people is they do not understand the government is going to drive costs up and make things worse always and forever. There's no exceptions, like, period. Just that is the truth of it. And so you'll sometimes accept that because there's no free market incentive to pursue a thing that we decide we want to pursue. Going to the moon to beat Russia. Right. So we just wanted to signal to Americans on a vibes perspective that we're better than our Cold War competitor. That's actually dope, that's super meaningful, that matters a lot. But as we're seeing now, the second that there was a private sector way to do this SpaceX, then it became infinitely cheaper. So this is, I'm not saying that you don't ever jumpstart things with government dollars. The Internet came out of darpa, Love it, amazing. But then you get the fuck out of the way. And so I'm just saying the government is knowable. It will fuck everything up because it, it is not subject to the forces of competition. The forces of competition and the selfish desire to get richer than your neighbor is the thing that gives us all of our lovely world that we see. Like this is all the result of that people being extremely selfish, wanting to get richer than their neighbor. And so people don't like that. I get it. But that's causing them to make really stupid decisions. And so I'm just like, oh my God, like we have to get to the physics of these situations. So when you get to the physics of healthcare, you have to open it up to the competition in the market. You've got to make it so that a health insurance company can go out of business, so that people go, yeah, that health, that insurance company sucks. I hate everything about what they're doing. This one's dope. You've got to get rid of all the regulatory capture that made it possible for Americans to pay the burden for drug discovery. And the rest of the world gets everything super cheap. Like that is wild. So you've got to get rid of that kind of stuff. And at the same time, if we go as a country, hey, we're going to balance our budget and the thing that we really care about is we want to make sure that nobody goes broke from a catastrophic illness. Okay, like then let's look at that. Let's say the one thing that we don't care about is preexisting conditions. But, ooh, buddy, are you gonna have to like deal with the low level stuff? So if you look at right now this, I should have pulled the link, but if you look right now, the example that I gave $600 without insurance, $1,300 with insurance is a real example that I'm using of a guy who recorded his phone call with the health insurance company and he was like, hey, you guys sent me the bill for $600. I sent you my insurance. And then you sent me a new bill. Which is higher. And they said yes, because if you have insurance, then you get the insurance cost. If you don't have insurance, then you get a discount that is so maddening that I don't understand how people don't go, wait, hold on. First of all, you're going to pay some ungodly amount of money until you hit your deductible anyway. So all of those costs matter. The incentive that the insurance companies have is that they're going to. Or the doctor or whatever that you're talking to, they're to going. They have is that, well, I've got to make money somewhere. So I'm going to send this to your insurance company. Your insurance company is going to negotiate with me, but they're still going to pay a lot. And so they get a sense of like, okay, the procedure costs this much. Your insurance is only going to cover this. And so you're going to be out of pocket that much. And if you haven't hit your deductible, then you're just going to ring up. I mean, it could be 15 grand, it could be more. So all of that stuff is terrible. And you've put people in a position where they have to have it. So it's like you can't lock people legally into a system that is predatory on them, which is exactly what we're doing right now. So again, I'm not a pull the plug today, but I'm like, we're going to have to start talking about this. I can already feel that to get to my goal of a balanced budget while making sure that the country has the things that they believe in, I'm going to have to start talking about this stuff.

[Guest/Co-host (Political Analyst)]

So we go. I think it's like a realization, like in real time, you're like, we got

[Tom Bilyeu]

to figure out because you start looking at all the things that we spend money on. And so one of the ones that we just spend an ungodly amount of money on that people just, they're completely blind to is we let people destroy their own health. And then we force young, healthy people, like you said, to pay into a system like Social Security, where it's like, I am specifically making you, dear young, healthy person, pay for the young and ill and the old and ill and then just the old. So it's like, okay, that, that is God awful. That is God awful. But if as a nation we're like, I don't want to see somebody go bankrupt on cancer. It feels too roll of the dicey. Don't like that. And so cool. Now we're gonna put things in that are gonna cover for that. What exactly that will look like, I don't know off the top of my head. But it's like there's no reason that you can't put systems in like that. And so that would be better. You still have the issue of cancer is almost certainly tied to environment for sure. And there might be so much luck of the draw there. Genetics for sure. And there definitely is luck of the draw there. But it's also a third pillar is what you eat.

[Guest/Co-host (Political Analyst)]

If there's a hypothetically speaking budget is balanced, there's this new health insurance that is proposed that is very much

[Tom Bilyeu]

we.

[Guest/Co-host (Political Analyst)]

There is a pool of resources in order to subsidize this health insurance cost. So right now, everybody who gets a paycheck, they have the Social Security is taken out, Medicaid gets taken out. Things like that. Yeah, if that system is viable, are you okay with that or does it break when the individual is paying into a larger pool? I'm trying to see where the economic.

[Tom Bilyeu]

If you make it a Ponzi scheme, you're going to have Ponzi scheme problems. And so if, for instance, your actuarial math comes out to go, okay, we have to have at least 40% young and healthy people paying into this pot, otherwise we can't support it. Well, then you need to have a mathematical table that says what you do when it becomes 39%, 38%, 20%, whatever. Because you can't guarantee that you're always going to have 40% of young, healthy people paying into the system. So if you've got a plan for that, then, yeah, I'm totally open. Remember, here is how governments ought to work morally. You ought to have a balanced budget, and then the budget ought to be allocated to what people believe in. And so if people are like, like me, I'm going to bang the drum for innovation. Innovation has saved more people than anything ever. It's pulled more people out of poverty than anything ever. Freedom is a prerequisite to innovation. But, like, I've got my whole thing. I can walk you through all the, like, why it works and all that. But, like, if I'm a lone voice because I don't trust myself to be right on everything, I'm like, okay, well, I'm prepared to live in the world where the quote unquote dumb voter overrules me. Okay, Like, I get it now. It doesn't mean that I'm just going to stand there and take it. Like, if the dumb Voters are doing things that I think are too crazy. You bunker up, you move, you whatever. But I do believe that is the way things ought to be. Taking a short break, but there's more impact theory after Stay tuned.

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[Tom Bilyeu]

Thanks for staying tuned. Now let's get back to it.

[Guest/Co-host (Political Analyst)]

Let's jump into Scott Bess and setting the record straight on the Argentinian currency swap.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Yeah, speaking of, like, is, we got to play this out because you got to see him, like, bite. The guy should have costs and prices and affordability. How does a $20 billion bailout of Argentina help Americans?

[Scott Bessant]

Do you know what a swap line is?

[Tom Bilyeu]

It's currency swap. Yes, yes, but what.

[Scott Bessant]

What is that?

[Tom Bilyeu]

That's. You're the treasury secretary.

[Scott Bessant]

Yes, but why would you call it a bailout?

[Tom Bilyeu]

That is how in most bailouts he, he should have let that hang because he had the guy dead to rights. And as an interviewer, if you're going to go on the attack, you better know your cause and effect. And I think I'm a terrible debater, so I will only like, get spicy on stuff where I'm like, I can build this up from cause and effect. So if somebody gives me an argument that breaks my cause and effect, then I can be like, I know right where to slot that piece of information in. Cool. Understood. Thank you for updating my mental model. And if they can't break my cause and effect, well, then I just keep going. This leads to this, leads to this leads to this point, to the part in that sequence that is incorrect. And it becomes much easier. This guy went on the attack as a partisan hack Basically, and didn't have cause and effect, didn't even understand what he was trying to bite him on. And if Bessant had just sat there and said, what is it? The guy would have been like, I don't fucking know, man. And so then he's going to have to like, double down. And the. Well, you're the treasury secretary. You're the one that we pay to understand this. But at least it would have been clear. And Besson could have been like, look, this is part of the problem. If I were coaching him, I'd be like, this is where you go, this is part of the problem. You guys are fighting my agenda all the time. But the reality is you don't understand it. And because you don't understand it, you're going to feel like you know what I should be doing. But the reality is you don't understand the cause and effect of the economy. And people that do not understand the cause and effect of the economy should be very careful trying to put forward economic policy. And so here's how it works. And then you just lay out as briefly as you can what the cause and effect is. That this isn't a bailout. That anybody that's using that is either ignorant or they're being a partisan hack. And the way that these things work is they're actually a revenue generating opportunity. He goes on to explain it, so we'll. We'll let him go. But, yeah, messaging, you got to win the messaging game. All right, let's hear it.

[Guest/Co-host (Political Analyst)]

Oops.

[Tom Bilyeu]

The Treasury Secretary Bessant joins us now to talk about this. Sir, good to have you here in the studio.

[Scott Bessant]

Hey, Rob, good to see you again.

[Tom Bilyeu]

That was a. That was, I thought, the best moment of the morning. I enjoyed watching it. The entire media, and I mean the entire media has been slamming you in the Democrat Party as well for this move that was made with Milei. They know Melaye is a very close friend of the President's, their allies. But it sounds like nobody actually knows exactly what you guys have just done. And I think everybody figured it out this morning.

[Scott Bessant]

I think so, Rob. And look, we use the US Balance sheet to bolster a great ally of the United States. I call it the peace through economic strength. And how much better to put up the credit and full faith, the United States government make money and bolster an ally rather than end up with something like we've got with the Maduro regime, where we're having to target these and take military action.

[Tom Bilyeu]

I missed it.

[Scott Bessant]

The question was, how is this good for Americans.

[Tom Bilyeu]

It's great for Americans. And all the vitriol, the back and forth, all that stuff really does make me sad because you just. You're backing people into a corner unnecessarily, and nobody gets it more than me. I understand. Like, even the way I'm talking right now doesn't have the bombast that it needs to have for us to retain viewers. I'm so aware of that. But, yeah. Anyway, it makes me sad that that's where we're at. But so Besson is somebody that people. I think he says it in this. Or maybe the interview with what's Her Face, Laura. Something where he's like, he was more understated than I'm about to be, but basically, I murdered it on Wall Street. I had a career there. Like, I try to remind people when I'm teaching business. I try to remind people, yes, I make millions of dollars a year teaching people business, but I've made over a billion dollars, billions of dollars running businesses. So it's like the thing that I'm teaching you how to do, I used to just do. There were no cameras. There was just. I run businesses. It's what I do. And they generate billions of dollars in revenue. So Besant is an economic gangster. Like he was on Wall Street. You either figure it out or you go broke. And he made himself. I think he's a multi billionaire. I don't know that for sure, but I'm pretty sure he was part of the team that made a billion dollars in a single day, which is fucking wild. So it's like, this is somebody. This is why I revere Ray Dalio so much that people can talk a big game, but if they put their own money at risk and they walk away with, like, some big W's, they know what they're doing. The guy that we were watching, the MMT guy who couldn't explain mmt, he's not winning in the marketplace. That's a guy that's. Knows the right people, gets cushy consulting jobs. Bessant is an economic gladiator. He's in the ring going up against, like, governments and other economies and like. Like that. Do you know how crazy it is to risk your own money trying to break the back of the British pound? Because if you're wrong, you lose all the money that you were using to force them to capitulate. And so it's like. And you've got some brass cojones. And if you win, it means you actually understood something. And this is A guy that won over and over and over and over and over. Now you can say that Wall street is immoral, fine. But you've got a guy that knows how to play that game. And so you've put him in a position where it's like, all right, you've, like, made this insane amount of money winning in economics, and now I'm going to put you in charge of the largest economy in the world. Let's go. So it's like, I still don't know if these guys are going to pull it off. But again, if people want to understand why I appear to be less like drum bangy on these guys, I'm looking at them going, if anybody's got a shot to pull us out of the economic morass that we're in, it's them. I think that they're still making catastrophic errors, but at the same time, they've got a shot. They've got a shot. So I don't know that I love the risk that we took on Argentina. When I look at it from the way that they're billing it, which is basically, oh, we made a bunch of money. Almost certainly a stupid idea to do from that perspective. It's just not enough risk and reward. But when you put it in the context of, please remember you're in Thucydides trap with China, and they understand that. And so for Bessant and Trump, this was a move to protect us from China. Like, we are in a battle with China, a cold war battle right now with China, for South America. And so they saw an opportunity where it's like, okay, you have a very popular leader. Remember something like 72% of all people under 34. That number is directionally correct. It's not literally correct, but 72ish percent of all people under 34 voted for Malay. So the youth of Argentina are a hundred percent on his side. Like, they want what he's doing to work. And so he's very pro America. He's certainly pro capitalism. So anyway, I get from that perspective why they did it.

[Guest/Co-host (Political Analyst)]

But let's jump into some. I don't even know what to call this type news, but Elijah Schaefer CEO, Rift tv, some of you might know him, is being sued for $5 million over his ex post criticizing the FBI director Cash Patel's girlfriend. This is gross lawfare. He's calling it gross Law Fair. Candace retweeted it saying, apparently when governments and people in powerful positions get caught lying, their only weapon is to sue people. It is absolutely pathetic. And it's more. Excuse me, it's more meant to scare us into silence. We will bankrupt you. These people should be treated with contempt.

[Tom Bilyeu]

This. I gotta say, whatever you think about Candace, that tweet is bang on this. You. You don't hate Lawfare enough. I will just tell you that right now.

[Guest/Co-host (Political Analyst)]

Yeah. Here we'll play the beginning of this. This is him outlining the entirety of the lawsuit.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Yeah, this is bad.

[Elijah Schaefer]

Concerning news that I was being sued for $5 million by cash Patel's girlfriend, Alexis Wilkins. And the reason why might actually shock you. About A couple months ago, I posted this photo on the public social media platform X. I posted it with no caption, no suggestions of any mal intent or any slander, defamation, or criticisms of character. I did so attached to an X post shared by another account that I'm not connected to that talked about government agents being compromised. Now Alexis Wilkins is saying that I owe her $5 million for damages, the exact evaluation of my company, and if I cannot come up with that money, that I'm going to have to shut down my business, give up all of my digital assets and my entire voice online in order to pay her back.

[Tom Bilyeu]

So this is crazy.

[Guest/Co-host (Political Analyst)]

Yeah, that.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Like, okay, so obviously being in the public eye, you get to the point where people say enough horrible about you that you go, all right, am I gonna pursue people or am I just gonna have some testicle fortitude? And, bro, if somebody posts a photo of you insinuating in a trolley manner that you're a honey pot or whatever, like, deal with it. Like, oh, God, like, I don't understand. Like, it is going to be used against you. You. When you do this kind of thing, then somebody looks for the opportunity to do it. Back to you, Letitia James, I'm looking at you. It's like, it's terrible when either side does it, but, like, don't be a part of the problem. So, God, you'd have to do, like, even. In fact, dear Nintendo, what the actual fuck are you doing with your pal world Lawsuits. Like, that's wild. So if you. If they went after them for a trade dress problem, that I would kind of understand because they really do look exactly like Pokemon. But they didn't go after them for that. They went after them for game mechanics. It's like, come on, don't be that guy. And right now, what's his face's girlfriend? Cash Patel's girlfriend is being that guy. I. I just. I can't respect it. I can't respect it. It's a terrible Precedent.

[Guest/Co-host (Political Analyst)]

Like, I think it's a bad look on Cash too. Cash is fall off. Must be documented, man. He was the champion that we needed. And yeah, we love him. He's gonna turn the FBI around. You're looking like an op, bro. Like, you're losing all credibility. We still didn't see the Epstein files. And you paraded three basketball players thinking you done crack the code on something. And like, come on, man, this is not what we asked for. Now you're going after people on the right? Like, it doesn't make sense. It doesn't make sense to me. I think people are being sensitive. Yeah, that's it.

[Tom Bilyeu]

And like, Cash, unless you're co signing this behavior from your woman, I feel

[Guest/Co-host (Political Analyst)]

like you have to be bad look.

[Tom Bilyeu]

It's a bad look, man. That's. That's way out of pocket. That's way out of pocket.

[Guest/Co-host (Political Analyst)]

Like, I. I don't know. I don't get it. I don't. I really just. I don't get it. And again, if this was like, at least the Emmanuel McCrone thing, the. For like, I'm a president of France, you can't be talking about my wife. Like, at least there's something there.

[Tom Bilyeu]

But no, no, that one is just as ridiculous. Now Candace, at least is going hard in the paint. So if somebody's like, if she has invited a lot of pain and suffering into her life, this guy posted a trolley photo.

[Guest/Co-host (Political Analyst)]

That's what I'm saying. I think they're a little bit different.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Amplitude comes up once again. So the amplitude of what Candace is doing is like, God damn. But even that, I would say, nah. Like, should they be? I mean, listen, if. God, what would I do if I were. If people were like, tom Bilyeu is a woman and he's trans. Honestly, that would be funny. So. But like, let's say it really started gaining steam. Like, no, for real. Like, for real, for real. Would I ever just whip it out, Drew? Would I? I probably wouldn't. But, like, admittedly, you know what I mean, like, we can end this real fast. Like, there it is. It doesn't slap nearly loud enough. I will assure you of that. Yeah, I don't know, man. This is.

[Guest/Co-host (Political Analyst)]

All of.

[Tom Bilyeu]

This is dumb. Lawfare to me is dumb. But Candace. The amplitude of what Candace is about is dialed to like 46.

[Guest/Co-host (Political Analyst)]

So is this one of those things? Like, this is just where we're at in the moment.

[Tom Bilyeu]

This is where we're at. But no, people really need to be up in arms about this. People. People need to make it clear that that is a level of ridiculous. That and not by doing more lawfare, by the way, just by, like, culturally being like, this is a clown show. This is just absolutely stupid. You guys are feeding into a fire all the things you complained about. You're becoming like you're the. The. The villain that you swore that you were gonna stop. It's just dumb. So, yeah, somebody somewhere has got to say like, okay, look, I have every right to pursue this person. I'm not going to. Because it's stupid. And we need to look forward. Like, for all Trump's lock her up talk, at least in 2016, he didn't actually pursue it. Now he's pursuing it. So don't love. Don't love. And for anybody saying that Candace doubled down, you are incorrect. Candace has quintuple down. Candace has orders of magnitude down. Like, when I watch her, I'm like, well, this is. I mean, what's that Michael Jackson meme where he's in Thriller with the popcorn? That's where I'm at with Candace and Macrons, man. Like, God damn.

[Guest/Co-host (Political Analyst)]

Everybody's looking for that all the way in.

[Tom Bilyeu]

I can see her doing, like, special events from fucking prison where she's just like, no, no. I still swear to God, she's like, literally pulling her ovaries out and showing them to her. She's like, there's no way she stuffed them up there. It's all fake. Like, I don't know that case.

[Guest/Co-host (Political Analyst)]

She's going to go live on the Eiffel Tower. Like, she's.

[Tom Bilyeu]

She.

[Guest/Co-host (Political Analyst)]

You have to take that victory lap.

[Tom Bilyeu]

I will refer to her exclusively as the Teflon Don. Like, if she beats that, Candace can say whatever the fuck.

[Guest/Co-host (Political Analyst)]

She's going to go live in front of the Lou. Like, all right, guys. All right. Yeah, I did it.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Coming to you live from McCone's bedroom.

[Guest/Co-host (Political Analyst)]

Yeah, you got to hit your lap. She gotta hit your lap, Candace.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Like, literally, if I was like, looking at, like a screen of all the people that I could fuck with in the world, I'd be like, now you can remove Candace. Like, it doesn't matter. But, Tom, she killed your dogs, bro. I said take her off. I'm not going after Candace. I don't know who you think I am.

[Guest/Co-host (Political Analyst)]

They go make a John Wick 5, and it's Candace.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Awesome.

[Guest/Co-host (Political Analyst)]

He's like, never mind. It's cool. It's cool.

[Tom Bilyeu]

She's Boomiwaga. What was the guy's name? John Wick. She is the booby Waga. All right, you don't fuck with the booby wagga. I'm just telling you right now.

[Guest/Co-host (Political Analyst)]

No way that's funny. All right. And then keeping assaults on free speech intact. South Korea's new president, I don't know enough to call him far left because I feel like they just had a demographic crisis.

[Tom Bilyeu]

But it says far left right there.

[Guest/Co-host (Political Analyst)]

Who is this? I can't even pronounce the news channel. Lee Jae Myung tells his police force that hate speech and misinformation shared on social media. Social media must be considered a crime that goes beyond the limits of freedom of expression. He says it must be severely punished as it's a threat to democracy. Before we get into it, what do you think about this trend that's happening all over the world? It seems like of this push on, we need to police information.

[Tom Bilyeu]

If you find yourself saying disinformation should be made illegal, that is, you're a categorical moron. You need to be immediately removed from office. I, I don't care who Trump my favorite pick anybody that you think I like, if they're like, misinformation should be legal, done, disqualified, out, impeach, 25th amendment, whatever the one is that's like, they're unfit for service like a thousand percent. Like, no, absolutely not. You are crushing dissenting voices. Like, that is the most draconian 1984 shit ever. That is somebody who just believes they're right. Like, the obvious question is, bro, have you legitimately never been wrong? No, I've been wrong before. Then why the would you ever say that people shouldn't be allowed to dis. Inform when you're wrong. You are quote unquote disinforming the public. So nobody is going to be right all the time. Nobody should trust themselves. History is a never ending litany of we thought this, then we realized wrong. We thought this, then we realized we were wrong. We thought this, and then we realized we were wrong. Once you understand, we don't even understand quantum physics. We don't understand it. So we don't understand the most fundamental building blocks of the universe. So what are we supposed to do? Like, people are not allowed to, like, try to think through it. They're not allowed to say what they believe to be true, but ultimately be wrong. That that is the dumbest shit ever. It. It is so crazy to me that people think that you can make progress as a society while saying, I am the arbiter of what is true. And therefore if you say something that I disagree with, you are incorrect. And You've got to be shut down. Like, did you people not live through Covid? Like, we were just wrong about everything. We were lied to about a whole bunch of. And the takeaway should have been, oh, yeah. The only way to get to the right answer is to let everybody say what they believe to be true, begin to parse it out. You're gonna have to sift through a lot of. But, like, things will rise to the top. And over time, science is going to show these are the things that work, these are the things that don't. And you're going to get flat Earthers on whatever the topic. And guess what flat Earthers are not going to do. They're not going to build the rockets that take us to Mars so they can off. And the people that understand how space actually works, they're going to be the people that build the rockets and build the thing. Skills have utility. And so the people that actually know something and that something is meaningful, they're going to win. The guy that can't explain modern monetary theory is not going to make money in the way that Scott Besson is going to make money because he actually understands how economies work. And so it's like, follow the people that have the skill set to do a thing in real life. And once you, like, hook onto that. Oh, that's right. Skills have utility. Skills that you do a thing other people can't do. So it's pretty easy to find the people that have the skills. Now, you may misidentify what the skill is. The skill may be, oh, they're really good at manipulating. They're really good at blackmail or whatever. And so they can get people to do what they want to do.

[Guest/Co-host (Political Analyst)]

Cool.

[Tom Bilyeu]

You have to figure out what is the actual skill that that person is deploying. But skills have utility.

[Guest/Co-host (Political Analyst)]

Yeah. All right, let's jump into the statement to hear right from him. I'll say it again. In some parts of our society, Truly anachronistic discrimination and hatred based on race origin and national origin is rampant. As our society becomes increasingly polarized, these extreme expressions continue to exacerbate social unrest. In particular, hate speech directed at this specific target is being indiscriminately spread on social media platforms, and false or manipulated information is spreading. We can't tie this down any longer. This is a clear crime that goes beyond the limits of freedom of expression.

[Tom Bilyeu]

You get what you vote for. So if this is what people want, they're gonna. They're gonna run the experiment. We're gonna find out, like, if cracking down on. It works. But look at what's going on in the uk. Terrible.

[Guest/Co-host (Political Analyst)]

We have to talk about this incoming AI bubble because there's been a lot of speculation. Softbank just ditched all their Nvidia. Warren Buffett has liquidated all this stock, even selling one of his company sports for a loss.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Michael Bur put a short on Nvidia.

[Guest/Co-host (Political Analyst)]

Yeah, Michael Bur thinks that the AI conglomerate is all overhyped. They're using Capex expenditures a bit too loosely.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Well, he called it fraud, just straight up fraud. This is the, the biggest type of fraud. So he wasn't saying like it's unique to them, but he was like this is the biggest type of fraud in modern history. Or. Yeah, anyway, that was the idea. May not be exactly the words, but that was the idea.

[Guest/Co-host (Political Analyst)]

And

[Tom Bilyeu]

because he says it misrepresents the amount of profit that they're actually making and he gave amounts and it's a lot like if he, if his math is correct, it ends up overstating their profit dramatically. So this is where I go, yeah, accounting gets very complicated very fast. So I'll just say, okay, he's probably directionally correct, but it certainly, it is common. So fraud is more of a Michael Burry stance than a legal stance.

[Guest/Co-host (Political Analyst)]

It seems like it's cracking in all different directions. Let me jump in to this tweet. Wells Fargo just called the top and nobody wants to hear it. The tech sector downgraded to neutral. Not bearish, just neutral. Wall Street's politest way of screaming, get out while you can. And this was something we talked about before we started the valuation chasm. Tech stocks 46x earnings. The S&P 500 average is 29x. That's a 59% premium for a sector trading on future promises while sitting on a present day fragility. That does seem bold. And I'm jumping over to the Sam Altman interview where he kind of had to justify his revenue. But what's your initial take so far?

[Tom Bilyeu]

Before we play that is a bubble, obviously I.

[Guest/Co-host (Political Analyst)]

Wait, I was not expecting that. Hold on a second.

[Tom Bilyeu]

But tech was a bubble in 2000. So it's like AI is going to play out. It's going to be the illest ever. I'm just saying you don't yet know how it's going to shake out who are going to be the main players. So it's one of those where 46x to me. Now listen, I don't want to go up against Michael Burry in the open market, but the way that I'm reading this is that you have to understand what's happening now through the lens of liquidity. There's so much money flowing into the system that it's got to go somewhere. So smart money knows you have to hide from inflation, you have to find a return. And the government is getting dicey. So there are fewer people that are just flooding into Treasuries like there would historically. And so you've got people chasing like a return. And so they're going to go into the stock market for sure. They're going to go into the thing that they believe on a long timeline is going to be a high performer. And they're probably a little too confident in themselves. But the we detach from like fundamentals a long time ago. This is just about where can I be? And they all think they're going to be smart enough to get out while the getting is still good. And so they go up. Supply and demand tells you that Nvidia stock is a hot thing right now. So I'm going to flood into Nvidia stock. I won't be stupid. I'll get out once I've gotten my winnings and, you know, let the dumb money take the fall. And the bad news is for the top, top, top people, that's actually true. That is what they do. But I paid more attention to this in crypto wallets. But if something like crypto wallets, 5% of the crypto wallets do 90% of the gains.

[Guest/Co-host (Political Analyst)]

And so it's like percent of the crypt.

[Tom Bilyeu]

It is, it's this. This is how markets work. There really is people. Okay, listen, everybody. We're all the dumb money. We are the dumb people.

[Guest/Co-host (Political Analyst)]

It's us. It's us.

[Tom Bilyeu]

That's why I say, don't day trade. You're gonna lose. Now, there might be a small handful of you that are the smart money that are taking advantage of all the rest of us that are dumb money. But I am reminded that not my entire audience doesn't understand PvPVE. So let me explain. The market is a PvPVE game. PvP is player versus player. PvE is player versus environment. So think of it as the NPCs, the mobs, as they are often referred to. Once you understand the stock market is gambling, but it's PvPve gambling. So you're gambling against other players that are trying to beat you. They're trying to trick you, outperform you pump so that you pour in so that they can get out. They spin narratives up in telegram Groups and try to get like hype going, like that's it.

[Guest/Co-host (Political Analyst)]

You're buying what they're selling and they're selling what they're buying.

[Tom Bilyeu]

But understand you were actively going up against human beings that are trying to take your money. If you don't have that mental map of what investing is, you will be taken advantage of, guaranteed. This is why I say just put your money in and walk away. Dollar cost average in to a highly diversified basket of goods and then walk away. Do not try to beat these people. The PVE side of this is that there's all kinds of things happening in the world. The economy. So there's environmental factors that you, they're out of your control. Like you've got George Soros out there influencing NGOs and elections and Soros and Besson together breaking the back of the British pound and like just all kinds of crazy shit. The yen carry trade unwinding for like global reasons. The US like loaning money to Argentina and there's tons of people invested in Argentina. And so those people just got taken care of but the people shorting it just got their ass is handed to them. And so was that really moral? Like right, that's the E part. So when you understand that this is a PvPVE game that is extremely complicated, that's when it's like okay, just accept. Unless you're doing this all day every day, you are the dumb money that everybody's trying to win against. Now how does the dumb money win? They play a very long term game. Because ironically if you play a long game and you're diversified, you actually do end up winning. You don't win like the insane amounts. It tends to rough out to about 7%, 6 to 7% over inflation. So it's like cool, great, yay. But. But you've got to be completely unemotional.

[Guest/Co-host (Political Analyst)]

Yeah.

[Tom Bilyeu]

If you think you're going to day trade your way, you're going to be in trouble.

[Guest/Co-host (Political Analyst)]

I want to jump into this. This interview has been kind of circulating with Sam Altman was asked how can a company with 13 billion in revenues make 1.4 trillion of spending commitments?

[Tom Bilyeu]

Can a company with 13 billion in revenues Make 1.4 trillion of spend commitments? And you've heard the criticism, Sam. First of all, we're doing well more revenue than that. Second of all, Brad, if you want to sell your shares, I'll find you a buyer. I just so seriously like Nadella there at the bottom. Yeah, that's hilarious. I didn't watch the video but I read A headline and somebody was like, this is giving me Enron vibes like two months before they collapsed where they were just so cocky and so arrogant thinking ah, we'll be fine. And then PvPve the E comes in hard and poof, the company's gone overnight. So I don't know what's happening with OpenAI. I don't want to pretend that I do. It is very weird that he was effectively asking for government guarantees, AKA bailout. He denies that that's what's happening, but I've also heard him say that at some point. I don't remember if he said OpenAI specifically, but that was the implication really is too big to fail. That they're too important to the infrastructure of US AI that the government is basically de facto gonna have to back them. This is why the state shouldn't get involved in capitalism. The state should be laying infrastructure that all of the AI companies can use and the ones that do that well survive and the ones that don't go out of business. We need to get away from this idea of things are too big to fail. We yeah anyway could do a whole tirade on keep the government out of it. But that is admittedly that disdain is somebody who is both getting a little too cocky and I'm sure has just had to answer this question over and over and over and he's getting tired. I think Sam Altman is in battles behind the scenes that none of us know about. That it is constant and never ending. His own family was suing him at one point. So it's like I'm sure this guy's just under siege at all times from international companies, companies in the us he's going up against Elon all the time. You've got Meta poaching his best employees. Like that is a level. There's a reason I don't own a public company by the way. This would be one of them. And so I get it. Like it doesn't look fun. I don't know why people do that shit. Yes, you can make a lot of money, but God damn you are gonna like you deal with stress, just non stop violence. And it's already stressful enough being an entrepreneur. I don't need that next layer.

[Guest/Co-host (Political Analyst)]

We don't need nothing add to that.

[Tom Bilyeu]

So anyway, what will ultimately come of all of this? I don't know. I will say Sam Altman strikes me as a survivor. But even more than I read into what he's saying, I read into the way that he's saying it now. Admittedly it's a pretty good clapback because he's right as of right now today, he would have no trouble selling whatever shares you just move the window to my side wants to get rid of. So. And Brad isn't going to get rid of his shares. Let's just start with that.

[Guest/Co-host (Political Analyst)]

I mean I. I definitely get the pressure that entrepreneurs come under but we are putting the entire US economy on this AI promise. Like literally deficit. The future of the world, the meaningless crisis. All these things are happening. It's kind of like we're trying to balance a house on the pinnacle pinnacle

[Tom Bilyeu]

of a mountain even more

[Guest/Co-host (Political Analyst)]

like. So I understand OpenAI might have some cracks but hopefully Claude and Meta and all these other people can kind of take their reins. But even if it's a 1% possibility, if this AI thing comes crashing down, are we then back to square one? Is it at that point?

[Tom Bilyeu]

Yeah.

[Guest/Co-host (Political Analyst)]

The U.S. it's a rat. We're going to hit 130 in no time. Is there?

[Tom Bilyeu]

That's not how the. Look, that could put a lot of financial stress and that could be one of those things where it blows up. And now both. Because there are two economies right now. There are the have assets and the have nots and the have assets are doing really well. Right. So 25 has been very good to me. I've made a lot of money. And the have assets who are feeling great right now are all like we're driving the economy and the have nots are like I can't afford groceries and so this sucks. And I'm going to vote in a socialist. So that discrepancy will be wildly exacerbated if the AI bubble were to burst right now because then the have assets are largely going to be battered and now you're going to be in a 2000.com bubble or a 2008 recession type thing. Now if the everything bubble blows up and everything bursts, that, that one is a multi year.

[Guest/Co-host (Political Analyst)]

Yeah.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Certainly Great recession equivalent. Does it become an actual depression? It's got a shot because there could be a contagion effect. If the contagion effect takes down the banks which are functionally insolvent, then you're. It would be very, very bad. So am I expecting that the timeline. Listen, I am admittedly building my arc now and I feel like a junior carpenter who's like really just trying to build his first thing. But I am trying to build my arc right now. Trying to make sure that I have the diversified portfolio of uncorrelated assets. Make sure that I Come with great humility and understand that even if I'm directionally correct, getting the timing wrong is brutal. So being very careful about that, making sure that I can survive any economic condition, no matter what comes. But my real, like, the alarm bell that I'm trying to sound is like a 7 to 10 year time horizon. I'm not on a, like, oh, like, even if we get a deflation of the bubble, I don't think we get like the insane reset in like the next year. Now listen, you want to talk about one where I'm like, boy, would I feel stupid if I wasn't moving now? Because it certainly could happen in the next year. But I just feel like your bigger concern is the left and the right start killing each other at an accelerating rate and that causes revolution. That's the one that for real, for real, like, keeps me up at night.

[Guest/Co-host (Political Analyst)]

So it's not even necessarily the ramifications of the bubble. It's the reaction to the bubble with the economic and the policy.

[Tom Bilyeu]

What almost always takes a country down. It's not a depression, it's wealth inequality. And so if we have a depression, it'll be brutal, but it's not people getting murdered in the streets. The wealth inequality, running away is murder. So that's where it's like, okay, we want to look at historical things. So looking back, depression, very bad, very bad. And ups the odds of war, probably a lot. Because now it's like, Trump listens, you want to get out of this, all you got to do, piss off China, make them make a move, do something like start saying some about Taiwan. And then we can spin up the military machinery. We get everybody all patriotic. We tax everybody. Not just the rich, we tax everybody. And yeah, we get everybody super comfortable with that. We get people jobs, building the war machine and we do our thing. I'm not saying that's what's going to happen. I'm saying the odds of that increase. So that is a scenario that I hate. The other scenario is we keep spending money as if printing money doesn't reverse Robin Hood, everybody. And the wealth inequality gets intolerable. And there's like, are you guys paying attention to the ICE stuff? Remember, ICE is an economic problem. ICE is just economics. So it isn't. In fact, let me lay that out. The anti immigrant sentiment is rising because you have shrinking pie. It is actually shrinking because that pie is actually shrinking. You are fighting over finite resources. And it's a populist moment. So the left and the right hate each other, which is all Born of economics. Anyway, everybody's forced into these camps. So now you've got two sides fighting over a shrinking pie, and they each want their portion. We're in a super weird moment where whatever one side does, the other side has to be the exact opposite. So right now, because Trump's in power, whatever Trump does, the left becomes the exact opposite. So if Trump says deport, well, we got to be a thousand percent opposed to that. And so these are the things, like when people say, like, how would you hear this question all the time? How would the Civil War actually play out? It's playing out. You're watching it right now. It's escalating. So you're seeing moms being like lookouts for places that they think ice is going to be. You see people throwing rocks off overpasses at cop cars. You see ICE officers being shot at. So this, this is how it plays out. So you've got guy with authoritarian leanings who anytime a blue state says, you can't come here, he's like, well, somebody needs my help and he's going to send them in because you don't get to tell him what to do. And then that gives them the exact excuse that they want to push back. So becomes these little incursions, and so those will just continue to escalate.

[Guest/Co-host (Political Analyst)]

AI Generated country song is topping a Billboard chart. And this is on the backs where last week, I think an R B song that was AI Generation generated also made the chart.

[Tom Bilyeu]

You got to play this song.

[Guest/Co-host (Political Analyst)]

So first, I don't want to get copyrighted. So get.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Really? For an AI song?

[Guest/Co-host (Political Analyst)]

Yeah.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Interesting.

[Guest/Co-host (Political Analyst)]

Somebody. Somebody owns.

[Tom Bilyeu]

I didn't think you could copyright an AI song. Okay. Yeah, I kind of dig that, to be honest. So it's really good. Like, I really like it.

[Guest/Co-host (Political Analyst)]

Is it going in the rotation?

[Tom Bilyeu]

It's already in the rotation. I've already listened to it today. So, yes, it is absolutely fantastic. So I really saddened by people that are like, I'm going to fight against this because all through human history, every time we fought against the technology, it worked. Oh, wait a second. No, it didn't. Not once ever. So I get the meaning in crisis, you need to have a solution for that. And I guess part of. Part of why I'm so embracing it is I have all the copium in the world in the form of I know what I'm going to do in an AI world where AI is better than me at everything, and as long as it doesn't kill me, I've still got a strategy. Now if it kills or enslaves me, I'm going to be like, whoopsies. But yeah, right now. So it's going to happen. It's amazing. Use it to your advantage. Go write the song you've always wanted to write. Create the thing you've always wanted to create. There's going to be a, call it five year ish window where you just get to make things and you get to make it and it's all cheaper and you're going to be able to do things you just weren't previously able to do. Seven to 10 years, that one's going to be a little harder. That's you're going to be like, huh, I don't have a job, I don't need a job because I'm being taken care of. But I don't like the way that feels and all the really cool things that Tom is talking about. We're still not a Kardashev type 2 civilization yet, so this kind of sucks. And there will be a good 10ish years of that which are going to be unfun. There's no way around it, man. All right, everybody, that's it for today. We will see you on Friday. And until then, my friends, be legendary. Take care. Peace.

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