Are We Headed for Economic Meltdown? Inflation, Debt, and Trump’s War Fallout | Tom Bilyeu Show LIVE

Summary

Podcast Summary: Impact Theory with Tom Bilyeu

Episode Title: Are We Headed for Economic Meltdown? Inflation, Debt, and Trump’s War Fallout | Tom Bilyeu Show LIVE

Date: April 1, 2026

---

Episode Overview

Tom Bilyeu and co-host Drew take a deep dive into tumultuous global and economic events shaping 2026, including the evolving fallout from Trump’s war in Iran, rising inflation and U.S. national debt crises, shifting world alliances, the recent open-source leak at Anthropic, and viral conspiracy and political stories. The conversation moves at a fast, unfiltered pace, dissecting headlines, challenging narratives, and offering skeptical, real-world commentary about where the U.S.—and its listeners—go next.

---

Main Themes and Key Discussion Points

---

I. Geopolitics: Trump’s Middle East War & Global Alliances

Timestamps: 01:00 – 25:36

• April Fool’s Context: The episode airs on April 1, but Tom makes clear they’ve filtered out fake news (“everything that we are going to represent today has been cleaned of all of the April Fools” – [01:09], Tom).
• Breaking News Coverage:
  • Assassination Update: Bullet that killed Charlie Kirk does not match the alleged assassin's gun ([01:12]).
  • Trump’s Iran War: Trump claims the war will end in “two or three weeks” even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed ([01:30], Tom).
  • Global Fallout: Isolation grows—Europe denies U.S. airspace, Saudis end U.S. defense pact post Trump insults ([02:22]).
• Shifting U.S. Objectives: Trump initially threatened Iran with massive strikes if the Strait didn’t reopen, but now says reopening “is not a core objective” ([05:01], Tom). He tells allies to “learn how to fight for yourself. The U.S. will not be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us” ([04:42], Trump quote read by Tom).
• Unravelling Alliances:
  • Trump’s actions have “remapped” global alliances; allies “aren’t helping us” ([08:00]), causing unease about U.S. leverage moving forward.
  • Key quote: “You are being gaslit by this administration...every administration is going to do it to you.” ([06:35], Tom).
• Consequences and Prognosis:
  • Gas prices hit $4, with knock-on inflation.
  • The “America First” approach is undercut by strategic chaos and burned diplomatic bridges; Trump’s support is fragmenting, even among his base ([13:37], Tom).
  • Tom: “He’s created so much chaos, I don’t think there’s any way that he puts us back together in time.” ([25:20], Tom).
• Historical Comparison: The hosts compare the Strait crisis to past oil embargoes, reinforcing that although the waterway may eventually reopen, immediate damage to U.S. standing may be lasting.

---

II. Economic Meltdown: Inflation, Debt, and Class Impact

Timestamps: 16:22 – 25:36, 55:11 – 67:06

• Energy & Inflation:
  • Drew and Tom debate whether “America First” can protect the U.S. from global energy price spikes ([17:32]).
  • Key dynamic: “The bottom side of the K [the working class]... if it stays elevated, then they get walloped with a hammer because energy prices... mimic inflation.” ([18:19], Tom).
  • “If you want to put money back in their pocket, but at the same time you just take it away from them in another way, it was a gambit that just didn’t pay off.” ([19:44], Tom).
• Deficit & Debt Crisis:
  • Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s warning: “The level of debt is not sustainable. It will not end well if we don’t do something fairly soon.” ([55:35], Tom citing Powell at [55:35] and [55:56]).
  • Interest payments on U.S. debt will exceed $1T in 2026—“just the interest!” ([56:15], Tom).
  • “The debt-to-GDP ratio... is unsustainable. Anytime anybody has gone over 130% debt to GDP for any prolonged period… has ended up in open violence.” ([56:36], Tom).
• Structural Issues & Policy Gridlock:
  • Bureaucratic bloat in government and private sector (“overproduction of elites”) stifles efficiency ([62:45], Tom).
  • Administrative layer growth outpaces frontline roles in education, healthcare, and the public sector ([62:20]).
  • “They want to make sure that they have a job that matches what they have in their mind that’s nice and white collar, that allows them to use their gender studies degree. I mean, it’s just fucking crazy, man.” ([63:42], Tom).

---

III. Social Fracture: Culture Wars, Conspiracies, and Identity

Timestamps: 25:36 – 55:05, 67:06 – 73:08

• Conspiracy as Entertainment:
  • The Charlie Kirk assassination ballistics report triggers a swirl of online theories; Tom and Drew deconstruct the difference between “inconclusive” and “disproven” bullet evidence ([39:59] to [44:31]).
    • “I almost don’t want to deny people their fun… but the punchline is going to be Tyler Robinson killing them, full stop.” ([44:31], Tom).
  • “Conspiracy is the new reality TV.” Stories like alleged cloning, hybrid aliens, and phone call timezones drive engagement online ([45:22] onwards).
  • Tom’s existential riff on the appeal of conspiracy thinking: “All of us can agree that things exist… But eventually you get to an ‘unmoved mover.’ And so you put that into a moment where institutions have lost their power...it gets weird fast.” ([51:14], Tom).
• Changing Attitudes & Generational Drift:
  • Young people’s detachment from “Western values” and willingness to be dominated by others flagged as a structural risk ([31:25], Tom).
  • Tom: “A culture is a thing that you have to defend. If you don’t indoctrinate the next generation...they simply won’t have those values.” ([32:02]).
• Personal Scandals:
  • Kristi Noem’s request for “privacy and prayers” as a family scandal surfaces highlights social media’s invasive scrutiny and Americans’ complex views on sexuality ([68:38]).

---

IV. Technology and the AI Disruption

Timestamps: 73:08 – 77:42

• Anthropic Code Leak:
  • Anthropic's accidental leak of 500,000+ lines of Claude AI’s source code is called a major misstep but not fatal, since no model weights or customer data were exposed ([73:34] to [76:43], Tom).
    • “Anthropic is now basically an open source company. They just didn’t intend to be.” ([73:36], Tom).
    • “It’s the second major data incident at Anthropic in under a week…at a company whose core pitch is ‘safety first AI.’” ([75:06], Tom).
• AI & Employment:
  • Mass tech layoffs (Oracle, and others) are both driven and justified by AI: “I know, because we’ve done it ourselves…[AI] allows us to dramatically reduce our executive layer…cost savings.” ([77:03], Tom).
  • Marc Andreessen’s defense of AI as a "cover story" is scrutinized. Tom agrees AI will cause disruption but notes some companies are indeed using it as an excuse to “get leaner.” ([77:28]–[77:42]).
• Entrepreneurial Handle: Tom pitches his “Zero to Founder – AI Masterclass” as a route to adapt, not get left behind ([78:30]).

---

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

---

Geopolitics, Energy, and Trump

• “You are being gaslit by this administration…every administration is going to do it to you.”
  — Tom ([06:35])
• “He’s created so much chaos, I don’t think there’s any way that he puts us back together in time.”
  — Tom ([25:20])
• “Buy oil from the US or build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait and just take it… The US Will not be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us.”
  — Trump statement read by Tom ([04:42])
• “The world is remapping their mental model of what it means to deal with the US at this rate.”
  — Tom ([10:48])

Economy, Inflation, and Debt

• “The level of debt is not sustainable. It will not end well if we don’t do something fairly soon.”
  — Jerome Powell, quoted by Tom ([55:35])
• “Interest payments on the national debt in the US are projected to exceed a trillion dollars… just the interest!”
  — Tom ([56:15])
• “Anytime anybody has gone over 130% debt to GDP for any prolonged period…has ended up in open violence. The only exception is Japan.”
  — Tom ([56:36])

Culture and Society

• “Conspiracy is the new reality TV.”
  — Drew ([45:22])
• “We all have to contend with that [God-shaped] hole.”
  — Drew ([53:25])
• “All of us have that gear. And when your sex gear collides with, like, your everyday life gear, it’s so jarring.”
  — Tom ([71:37])

AI & Layoffs

• “Anthropic is now basically an open source company. They just didn’t intend to be.”
  — Tom ([73:36])
• “AI is just the perfect cover story…Wall street absolutely loves people laying off people for AI because it means you’re getting leaner and meaner.”
  — Tom ([77:11])

---

Important Segments with Timestamps

| Segment Topic | Timestamps | Highlights | |--------------------------------------|---------------|--------------------------------------------------------------| | Geopolitical Flashpoints | 01:00–14:00 | Trump/Iran, shifting alliances, gas/oil, Trump’s strategy | | Economic Fallout and Voter Impact | 16:22–25:36 | Inflation’s effect, K-shaped recovery, midterm politics | | Israel, Lebanon, and Global Reactions| 34:10–39:43 | Coverage of Israeli advances, GCC relations, youth opinions | | Ballistics & Conspiracy Breakdown | 39:43–45:22 | Kirk assassination, how conspiracy spreads in news cycles | | Meta-Conspiracy & Social Commentary | 45:22–55:05 | Why conspiracy thinking is growing, existential reflections | | Debt Crisis, Bureaucracy & Elites | 55:11–67:06 | Powell, national debt, overproduction of elites, admin bloat | | Tech Blunders & AI Economy | 73:08–77:42 | Anthropic leak, layoffs, future of AI disruption |

---

Tone & Approach

• Unfiltered, Candid, and Sarcastic: Tom and Drew riff casually, often cursing and calling out “BS” and “spin.”
• Skeptical but Pragmatic: Emphasis on not trusting political narratives or consensus, appealing for listeners to remain vigilant and informed.
• Rich with Anecdote and Real-World Reference: Frequent analogies to business, history, and personal experience.

---

For Listeners Who Missed the Episode

This episode unpacks current events beneath the headlines, offering a skeptical, revealing look at how U.S. global posture, domestic economic mismanagement, and cultural fracturing are combining to create unprecedented uncertainty in 2026. You'll come away with a sharper sense of how policy, markets, and media narrative shape reality—and why neither the alarm nor the optimism you see elsewhere should be taken at face value.

Transcript

[A]

When you manage procurement for multiple facilities, every order matters. But when it's for a hospital system, they matter even more. Grainger gets it and knows there's no time for managing multiple suppliers and no room for shipping delays. That's why Grainger offers millions of products in fast, dependable delivery so you can keep your facility stocked, safe and running smoothly. Call 1-800-GRAINGER Click grainger.com or just stop by Grainger for the ones who get it done. When you manage procurement for multiple facilities, every order matters. But when it's for a hospital system, they matter even more. Grainger gets it and knows there's no time for managing multiple suppliers and no room for shipping delays. That's why Grainger offers millions of products in fast, dependable delivery so you can keep your facility stocked, safe, and running smoothly. Call 1-800-GRAINGER Click grainger.com or just stop by Grainger for the ones who get it done.

[B]

Good morning, everybody. Welcome to another episode of the Tom Bilyeu Show Live. Boy, oh, boy, do we have a lot to go over today. It is April Fool's, and we're gonna try to remember that. As you guys put stuff in the comments, it's already started, and Drew and I have fallen for things already today, so we are very hopeful that everything that we are going to represent today has been cleaned of all of the April Fools are. We shall see. But the Daily Mail has reported that the bullet that killed Charlie Kirk does not match the gun purportedly used by accused assassin Tyler Robinson. As far as I can tell, that claim is truly real. Nope. No rim shot needed. You're trolling now. Come on. Our own team. They're working against us over here. That one's real. I'm not kidding. We're gonna talk more about that. Trump says that we've only got two or three weeks left of the war and then he's gonna pull out even if the straight is still closed. I kind of wish that that one was April Fool's, but alas, it is not. We're gonna talk about the chaos there, what that's doing to the markets. Speaking of the markets, chief inflationist Jerome Powell admits that we can't keep inflating the money supply faster than the economy grows. Who would have guessed? Who would have guessed, boys and girls? New poll crowns Trump the least popular president in history.

[C]

Ouch.

[B]

Ouch. That one's wild. Saudi's crown prince has terminated the defense agreement with the US after reported insults from Trump. After European allies deny the US the use of their Airspace for military operations. Rubio says they can defend themselves against Russia. He was a little tongue in cheek, but not a lot. And Anthropic accidentally open sourced its own code base. So. So apparently now Anthropic is the new open. Open AI. We'll see about that. And Kristi Noem. This one, I cannot believe this is real. Kristi Noem is asking for privacy and prayers after the bombshell that her husband is a crossdresser. You never know, man. You never know. As we were saying before we started rolling, the harder you thump the Bible. And I don't know that her husband is in that camp and maybe she's not even, but, man, is that her branding. The harder you thump the Bible, the more likely a skeleton is going to come flying out of your closet. So shout out to all my crossdressers out there. God love you all. But when you try to hide it, woof. No bueno.

[C]

My cross dressers. My.

[B]

Yeah, I got nothing but love. Drew, have you ever been to a drag show?

[C]

I have. On accident before, I'm going to be honest.

[B]

On accident. How do you accidentally end up on a drag show?

[C]

We went to a bar and it was like 8 o', clock, and then at 10 o' clock, the lights got low. We're looking around like, okay, cool.

[B]

You're like, hold on a second.

[C]

It's la, though. They have drag brunches at Kmart. So, like, it's everywhere.

[B]

Kmart. Those no longer exist. Drew.

[C]

I just aged myself. I just aged myself.

[B]

He's 53, ladies and gentlemen, thank you

[C]

everybody for the well wishes in the chat. I appreciate it. It's happy to be back. I was on vacation. Nothing blew up. I seen some conspiracy theories.

[B]

Yeah.

[C]

Some spicy comments, but no, Tom is the greatest. Everything is good.

[B]

They were worried that there was a beef between us.

[C]

Yes, they were worried about. And we got to talk. Trump announced a address to the nation later on tonight. It's going to do with Iran. Do you have a Over under. What are you thinking about?

[B]

Yeah, I. I am not entirely sure what he's going to be talking about tonight. I think it will be something as simple as we have accomplished the vast majority of majority of our objectives and we're about to dip out. Trump has said that he plans to leave Iran even if the global energy markets are still in chaos. He doesn't word it like that, obviously, but nonetheless, he's saying even if the strait is still closed, that people can deal with it themselves. And Wall street shockingly loves it. So 10 days ago, Trump gave Iran 48 hours to fully open the Strait of Hormuz or face strikes on its power plants. He extended the deadline twice while munching on some tacos. And now the White House says reopening the Straight isn't a core objective. What he was originally threatening to bomb them back to the Stone Age if they didn't open it. Now it's like, meh, whatever. We never really cared about it in the first place. Uh huh. Gas just hit $4. Yikes. So what gives? What exactly changed and what's he going to talk about tonight? Well, on the tonight part we're going to see. But Trump posted on Truth Social directing allies who can't get fuel through the strait to do one of two things. Buy oil from the US or build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait and just take it. And of course, take it. Being in all caps. He added, you'll have to start learning how to fight for yourself. The US Will not be there to help you anymore, just like you weren't there for us. So things are getting weird. He went on to say a little bit more. Iran has been essentially decimated. The hard part is done. Go get your own oil. All right, things are getting wild. We'll talk more about this later. But the relationships with our allies is really beginning to be a problem. And I worry that Trump's personality, he just doesn't care about that. And maybe overestimating how easy it's going to be to cakewalk a world in which you have very few allies. We'll see how that plays out. The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday that Trump told aides he's prepared to end the military campaign even if the strait remains largely closed. The White House confirmed it. Press Secretary Caroline Levitt said reopening the strait is not one of the operations core objectives. Hegseth echoed that at the Pentagon briefing, listing Iran's missiles, drones and Navy as mission goals. Hormuz wasn't on the list, he said. Again, try to reconcile that with Trump saying if you don't open the Strait, we're going to bomb your civilian power infrastructures and possibly your desalination plants. That's pretty crazy talk if that's not actually one of your missions. Just as a reminder, you're being spun at all times. People are lying to you constantly and they will tell you what they want you to think. They will try to control your frame of reference. And the president is a master at that. So you are being gaslit by this administration. Please don't lose sight of that, every administration is going to do it to you. So it's not like I think that it's unusual that it's happening right now. I just don't want any of us to be blind to it. Let's use this high velocity, high volume of information landscape that we're in to remind each other when this is happening, and it is certainly happening now. Secretary of State Rubio went further, saying that the Strait will reopen one way or another after the operation concludes. And to be honest, he's probably right. Now, he didn't give a timeline or a mechanism by which that would happen, just that it would happen. If you're familiar with history, even after the Arab oil embargo of 1973, it reopened. After the revolution in 1979 in Iran, when they couldn't have been any more anti us, it still reopened. So, yes, it probably will reopen. But the world is not smiling on Trump for this war. And that is the part that. That I think may be underestimated by virtually everybody on planet Earth. Not that change is coming in the future. Change has already happened. The maps are totally different now in terms of alliances. And just to recap, on March 21, Trump threatened to obliterate Iran's power plants if the Strait wasn't fully open in 48 hours. He extended that deadline twice. Now it's no longer a core objective. Our allies aren't helping us. Meanwhile, gas crossed $4 a gallon on Tuesday for the first time since 2022, and that's up more than a dollar since the war began on February 28. And none of this is over yet. Even if Trump tonight says that, hey, we're gonna be pulling out, we've achieved everything that we came to achieve. Bye, we'll see you later. The drama has not finished unfolding, and you have the UAE saying that they're gonna open the Strait by force if they have to. So the dynamics in the Middle east have completely changed. Our relationships to our allies have completely changed, and I don't think just as a result of Iran, but Iran is the thing that people can point to that had global consequences that would not have played out this way were it not for Trump. Now, you can make a very compelling argument that Iran should not have nuclear weapons and that no nation on Earth should want them to have that. You're going to see a lot of support for that. However, the way that Trump went about it, the way that he goes in, creates chaos, and it's perfectly fine to leave that chaos in his wake as Long as it doesn't directly impact the United States is not going to buy him any friends. And the world is remapping their mental model of what it means to deal with the US at this rate. Man, I just, I do not see a clear path for Trump to win in the midterms right now. I think the only way that this plays out in his favor is a consequentialist strategy, meaning that the ends end up painting over the horrific means. And so if on the other side of this, oil drops, stock market goes up, countries do start turning to the US for more oil, jobs are surging here, the US Is doing better, and Trump can just say, there's more money in your pocket with me in charge than there was back in the Biden era. And by the way, let's not lose sight of Even though people hate Trump more and more by the day, there are also polls showing that people are moving away from where the Democrats are going as well. So you sort of have like a I don't know who the hell I want to win vibe across America. So that's going to be a fascinating thing to watch. So it's basically going to be, is Trump able to pull off what at this point looks like a semi miracle of actually making Iran work out better, actually on paper and not just in rhetoric? Because right now he's going to spin and spin and spin until the end of time. He will give the people that identify as maga, he will give them the words that they need to say to their friends to be like, no, this made sense. But in reality, it's all going to be a counterfactual that will never be able to run. What he's going to say is, well, we didn't get bombed from Iran with nuclear weapons, but that wasn't on most average people's bingo card. Like, even myself, I constantly remind myself how I felt about Iran before he went in, before he bombed Ford out. Wasn't even on my radar. And then when he went back in the second time, I remember being completely befuddled. At some point, we'll have to bring the clip up where I'm like, why is he building up troops? I don't even understand what's happening right now because he wasn't messaging at all. I didn't realize that in his mind, the right messaging was we obliterated their nuclear facilities, but we still have to be worried about it. I was like, what? Huh? Like, I could not reconcile that. Now they've gotten clearer with their messaging, but even though I have a lot of respect for Rubio. The messaging at the beginning of this was God awful. And they've only gotten good at consolidating it down to the four things that Rubio now repeats ad nauseam, which is smart. And if they had done that in the beginning, this would have all played out in a very different fashion. But it's just been super messy. So now he's going to be forced to claim victory over two things. Essentially, if the price of oil goes down, he'll claim victory there, and the price of oil going down will cause the S and P 500 to go up. So he'll take that victory lap if that's what ends up happening. And then the other would be, you didn't get hit with a nuclear bomb. The nuclear bomb thing's not going to buy anything from anybody. No one's going to buy into that because it's just a thing didn't happen. A thing didn't happen that virtually nobody was worried about. It's not like this was the Cuban Missile Crisis where like the whole is holding their breath, being like, yo, what the fuck is about to happen? Are we all about to die? Nobody had that vibe. All he's done from the public perception, you're not chronically online, you're not politically activated. You just look around and go, gas prices are up. And I hear they're up because Trump is acting a fool and invading Iran and all the other shit about like, they've killed Americans for 47 years and it's a theocratic regime and all that is just a bunch of yapping heads. That's the average. Certainly American cannot make ground contact with that. And the whole idea that they were building a ballistic missile program that was able to reach much, much farther than anybody thought. Again, it's counterfactual. If they had struck London, like, if you could show Big Ben in a smoldering pile of ruins, now everybody's going to be like, oh, damn. Okay. I guess they really could do a thing that we didn't think that they could do. But that's not what happened. They tried to supposedly the base, which. I'm forgetting the name. Diego. Yeah, go something.

[C]

But that even that. That was a British base in the middle.

[B]

Yes, still. But it was. If true, that really is a much longer distance than anybody thought that they were able to do. But there's just too many question marks around that possibly because our. Their missiles were too weak and our defense is too good. But you put those together and people just stop feeling like It's a threat. So that's where all of this gets messy. And I think if Trump is thinking that this is going to help him anywhere, I don't even think it's helping him with his base. I think it's fueling the mega civil war, as people are calling it, but certainly on the right, I think it's fueling that. So, yeah, this one right now feels like a big miss. And if he ends up leaving the strait in disarray and then people really do go in behind him and like if the Europeans have to go in there, broker deals with Iran and Iran takes, which would be a very wise stance. If Iran says this is our opportunity to separate Europe from America and goes, yeah, we'll deal with you guys, no problem. No extra fee. Love it. All your ships are going to get through. China. Love you. All your ships are going to get through. Yep, yep. We just want to hurt the US And Israel. Then you further drive that wedge. So we'll see how it plays out. The future is way, way, way too unknowable, especially in something as complicated as this. But right now it's a mess. Taking a short break, but there's more impact theory after Stay tuned this summer.

[A]

Don't squeeze in, spread out. Find homes big enough for your whole guest list on vrbo. From family reunions to trips with friends, VRBO has spacious summer stays for every group size and budget. That's vacation rentals done right. Start exploring on VRBox and book your next day now.

[B]

If you work in university maintenance, Grainger considers you an MVP because your playbook ensures your arena is always ready for tip off. And Grainger is your trusted partner, offering the products you need all in one place, from H VAC and plumbing supplies to lighting and more. And all delivered with plenty of time left on the clock. So your team always gets the win. Call 1-800-GRAINGER visit grainger.com or just stop by Granger for the ones who get it done. Thanks for staying tuned. Now let's get back to it.

[C]

This is on the dawn of three world leaders addressing the nation, all talking about Iran, Australia and UK already did their address. I'm a summer. I'm a summarize it for everybody. We are figuring it out. Energy prices are going to go up. Trump now I'm putting a polymarket bet this is Drew by myself, one man army. I feel like he's going to pull out and be like, yeah, we did it. It's done. I'm over. We have oil over here. We got Venezuela we're making drill, baby, drill. We rolled back regulations. If you want oil, go get your oil. America's good, we're done, we're taking care of it.

[B]

Yeah.

[C]

If that happens, do you think that the impact of energy prices on Europe would then come back to the US because, you know, it is a global market, those things are interconnected. Or can we really separate ourselves at a distance enough that our economy will recover? And to your point, Trump can do some last minute tweaks to then help the midterm, so that way people can kind of forget about this.

[B]

Eron, which side of the K do you want to talk about?

[C]

That's a really good way to put it. Yeah, I'm going to say the lower K, because they're the ones that are going to be mad enough when it comes to.

[B]

Okay, so the lower K, as long as the prices of oil come back down, which they almost certainly, certainly will come back down very quickly. Unless, like, if there's major beef between the GCC countries and Iran, then you could see this drag out a lot longer in terms of oil prices being elevated. But if Iran goes, all right, they left, they'll claim victory, of course, and say, hey, we defeated the Great Satan, we made the US Leave the strait, they start taking some sort of toll. But let's say they keep it reasonable, doesn't have any major influence on global energy prices, then we're going to drop down, back to 60, $50 a barrel. The bottom side of the K is just a nothing burger. They don't end up feeling anything if it stays elevated, then they get walloped with a hammer because energy prices are the they. They are a doppelganger of inflation. They aren't inflation, but they so mimic each other that you might as well just call it inflation. And they will certainly think of it as inflation. So they'll be saying, okay, hold on a second. Everything just got more expensive because everything sits on top of energy, virtually everything. So yes, they will really feel it. Their life will have gotten worse. They will be absolutely irate. They will point their ire at Trump and you will see Trump lose one of the most important voting blocs that he has, which is working Americans. And so you can talk about putting money back in their pocket, but if at the same time you just take it away from them in another way, it was a gamut that just didn't pay off. And so that is, I think it's more likely that oil prices come back down before the midterms. I think it's very Unlikely that they'll remain elevated. If he put boots on the ground, then I'd be like, woof. All bets are off. The odds that the oil prices remain elevated for an extended period of time have just quintupled. But it doesn't. He's not signaling boots on the ground anymore. He's very much signaling in his mind. He has some like plan for the story that he's going to give his base as to why this was a victory once he got a hold of that, which seems to be our allies are a bunch of fuckwits. They can go take care of themselves. We're going to peace out. We don't have the problem from an oil perspective here in the US Them, let them deal with it. And so he's going to say, hey, this is America first, baby. I go in, I do what we need, which is we've got to protect ourselves from nuclear weapons, ballistic missile program, Navy, military, we did it, now we're the fuck out. And hey, Americans, don't worry, we produce enough oil here. We're going to keep, as you said, drill, baby, drill. All's well. So now that he has that, I think there's going to be no boots on the ground. He pulls out oil prices come down the bottom of the K. Doesn't like. They don't have a mental map of how all this works anyway. So they just know either price is good direction, price is bad direction. And so then he's got a shot. Now I think he's becoming so unpopular in his own base who were promised no new wars and he's gonna have a very hard time trying to convince them, hey, I said no forever wars and I was talking boots on the ground.

[C]

It doesn't count. Literally.

[B]

That's gonna be his pitch. And so it's like if Iran had played out like Venezuela, people would be singing his praises and you would not be able to use it as a detraction. And it wouldn't work to say this is the GU promises no new wars and he's over here bombing everybody. The rhetoric would be, these aren't wars. These are just like really fast strikes to get a very geostrategic thing across the finish line. And he's done it. And he's done it multiple times successfully. Never before has a US President used the power of the US military to such incredible effect. Yay, Trump. But that isn't how it played out. And so now he is going to have a near impossible time of getting low information voters on board with such a subtle message. It's just not going to work.

[C]

Is that sustainable though? Because it sounds good on paper. We did our thing, we did what we need to do. We're back over here. It's Europe's problem, it's their oil. It's Asia's problem, it's their oil. They need to go in and help. But we have constantly, over the lifetime of America, have gone to other places to subsidize our oil demand in other regions. Can we be okay being energy independent truly for the next decade, for example,

[B]

from an energy perspective? Yes. The US can truly be on an island by itself and not have to worry about anything. We're not there today. I want to be very clear. This would take time, but we would be able to, given that we are the largest crude oil producer in history, bigger than Saudi Arabia, bigger than Iran, like we have the wherewithal to do that. If we have the political will to continue to deregulate and allow us to do that. Trump obviously does, but with a single seat majority, it could get messier. But let's assume that we can do that, then the US can leverage the fact that it's energy independent. But none of that is going to matter if the people on the bottom of the K are not able to make ends meet. And right now, Trump has not proven that he can actually make their life better. Right now their life is getting worse by the day. We are deficit spending in the most reckless way humanly possible, which is making things worse for them. And you've got currently, because of the war in Iran, oil prices are elevated a dollar, so that's a problem. The will it come down is a big question mark. So if he does not take the time between now and let's Remember this is the 1st of April, man, you've got to get serious by the summer because all of the messaging to get people to vote in November is going to kick off hard in the summer. And if by then people are not feeling that, yeah, my life is materially better under Trump than it was under the Democrats, they are going to flip. And we're already seeing in the special elections, they're going to Democrats. So like, if you want an early signal, baby, there it is. If you have the election right now, Republicans are going to get hammered. So at the midterms, it's already likely that you get flipped at the midterms with the way that Trump has made people feel, which is that he's just turned the entire world into chaos. If he's not able to reorganize it and say, yes, yes, I made it chaotic. However, I'm now reshuffling things in a way that it advantages America First. He'll have a shot. If he could do that, he'll have a shot to change what the narrative of America first is, which is America wins. So, yes, I'm going all over the world and I'm fucking using our military, slapping people around, doing all kinds of crazy shit. But it's America first because we're going to come out ahead. We've now got control of Venezuelan oil. We're making that better. We've. If this plays out this way, Cuba is now an open economy and we're able to do business with Cuba. We've got better oil flowing. If Alberta, like this has never happened in time for the midterms. But Alberta peeling away from Canada and negotiating a better deal with us, there are things. And then obviously, drill, baby, drill. There are things that he can do here in the US Drive energy costs lower, put money in people's pockets through tax breaks, create jobs through deregulation. There are things. And then tariffs. If you can keep that going, get people manufacturing here. There is a sort of narrow. You can sort of see it. Path forward. But I just think he's created so much chaos. I don't think there's any way that he puts us back together in time. We'll see.

[C]

I feel like those are the same promises that we heard in November when he won and then in January when he was inaugurated. And now we're at a year and a half later, and it's like, if he could just. And it's like, how many months can he just. Because he's been jesting for a lot.

[B]

Yeah.

[C]

And what he's been doing in the meantime is enriching him and his homies.

[B]

I don't think he saw our allies turning on him as hard as they have. I. I think he.

[C]

The guy who wanted to tariff them and say all your business deals, and you've been taking advantage of this, and I want to charge double of what you've been charging me historically. And now I need help, and you're not there for me. What?

[B]

Yeah.

[C]

It's the most predictable problem ever.

[B]

Yeah. I really think he thought that we had more leverage than we had in the end. Now here's the really bad news. He might end up being right. They may find after three, four years of being without, like, if we pull out of NATO, Russia starts really making some gains in that war. And they're all of a sudden like, oh, shit. We actually really need help. They may find that, okay, he had more leverage than we wanted to admit. But there's going to be a lot of question marks for a lot of years because there are a lot of other people for these guys to partner up with. And when China is playing the game very well in terms of never interrupt your enemy when they're making a mistake. They're just letting the US do what the US Is doing, which is torching our reputation all over the world, alienating our allies, and then they're saying, hey, don't worry, we've got you. We're stable. We don't do nation building. We're not trying to be an empire. We just want, like, a nice open world where we can do the thing that we do well. You guys can do the thing that you do well. Like, really sort of pitching the old playbook. And when you make China look like Steady Eddy, wow, it's pretty wild. But right now, we are making China look like Steady Eddie.

[C]

To your point of new agreements, it might take three or four years. There'll be a new president, there'll be a new story. They'll probably sweep it under the rug. But what's happening right now is Saudi Arabia's Bin Salaam has terminated the defense agreement with the US following the insults from America and has entered into defense pact with Europe without informing the US Even though I feel like Europe can't even defend himself. So this is interesting, but we're already starting to see the GCC countries kind of.

[B]

Here's what's interesting.

[C]

Yeah.

[B]

Is their pack, if I understand it correctly, is with Ukraine. And so Ukraine not only went from like, oh, these guys are going to get obliterated, like, in a week, Russia is just going to steamroll them to, Whoa. Like, these guys are really, like, digging in. They're not backing off to, oh, my God. The whole world is reaching out to them. Now with what's going on in Iran, the US doesn't have the equipment that it needs to protect against this new type of warfare with drones and all that. We're over here flexing on these gigantic aircraft carriers, these super stealthy airplanes, but we're also getting footage of, like, little drones just coming down, looking around a base. What do I want to hit? And then finally, after like, 20 minutes of not being able to be stopped, they crash into something on a base. So people are like, this is different type of warfare. So honestly, the Saudis are smart to reach out to the people right now that are the best at defending against this. Also, Ukraine broke the Black Sea blockade that Russia had on them. So they've also got technology about how to deal with mines and a waterway, how to get past a blockade. So Ukraine has paid an extraordinary price to be in this situation, but they actually are showing that they understand modern warfare better than the United States. And this is where, man, being big dude, I think about this so much. So Quest has all this crazy success. 57,000% growth, massive company, billions of dollars in revenue, billion dollar valuation. Like, crazy, crazy, crazy. And when I started my next company, obviously this impact theory, I was like, okay, you have to be very careful because you can get arrogant so fast that you know how things work, that you get caught off guard by the fact that things have changed. And I've been asked so many times for people to teach me how to do what we did to scale Quest, and I'm like, I could walk you through it, literally, day by day, decision by decision. It won't work for you because we already did it. The world adjusted, and now you would have to do it in a different way. We did the thing that caught people off guard, and that's why it worked. The thing that worked, then everybody adjusts to it will no longer catch them off guard. They're already doing it as well. So it's like, the thing that we can do as the US Military with all this big stuff is like, that's not where the world is anymore. And so them reaching out, whether it was based on Trump saying, you can kiss my ass or not, which I can't, I haven't verified yet, but that's certainly the rumor going around. It's a smart move because they're the best in the world. And so this generic like, oh, they're turning to Europe also feels a little disingenuous. And I'm not sure why people are trying to frame it like that. He's turning to Ukraine, who are, like, in the middle of a war that's been going on now for four years, using drones. Nobody's going to be better than them.

[C]

No, that's real. I want to circle back to the affordability piece of it all. Marco Rubio is catching some heat for what he said about negotiations with Iran. This was on Good Morning America two days ago.

[B]

At the end of the day, I think that if there are people in Iran who now, given everything that's happened, are willing to move in a different direction for their country, that would be great. Imagine in Iran that instead of spending their wealth, billions of dollars supporting Terrorists or weapons had spent that money helping the people of Iran, you'd have a much different country. So we are always hopeful that that would exist over.

[C]

People are kind of highlighting the hypocrisy of that. If they had, if they wouldn't have spent billions and billions on weapons and instead invested in the country, they would have a much different country.

[B]

Yeah. So this is where we are going to have to decide as a globe, what values actually matter. For a long time, we believed that Western values were worth killing a lot of people for. And now we are backing off of that. And ultimately we're going to have to decide what we're willing to fight for, because it's not always going to be, oh, there's an existential threat, and it's very clear. And so we go in and do our thing. There is a reality to be faced that if your enemy does not share your values and you let them get militarily strong, that ultimately they can tell you what to do. And so this is the part that confuses me. Americans have somehow gotten into their heads and Europeans that it's perfectly fine for somebody else to get strong and ultimately tell them what to do because they've lost faith in their own values and they're somehow still thinking that, well, they're just going to leave us be. No, they're not, motherfucker. Like, they are going to take you over, even if only just culturally. And I don't think people understand that a culture is a thing that you have to defend. If you don't indoctrinate the next generation with those values, then they simply won't have those values. And whatever country that believes in their values enough to say, I'm going to build a military to protect my values, they will ultimately end up having the influence on the world. This is exactly why the US Was able to have the kind of influence that we had. We were the strongest economically, we were the strongest from a manufacturing standpoint. We had the clearest vision of our own identity in terms of value set. And so we're like, yeah, we're not going to let the Nazis or the Japanese take over the world. We just, we don't stand for fascism. And so we're willing to put our lives on the line to make sure that that doesn't spread. Same with Communism. Now, we don't have that belief and there are going to be consequences to that. And so right now, I think people in the west are actually perfectly fine with that. They either don't know how to think through the Problem well, or they are perfectly happy for somebody else to go. Well, I do believe in what I stand for and I am willing to kill a lot of people in the name of that. And so they're just going to back down. That to me is fucking wild. But I'm a product of the 80s, I understand that. I am well aware of how generations work and young people get the world that they're willing to fight for. And if they're not willing to articulate this is my value set and I'm willing to die for it, then they will get killed by the person that is willing to fight and die for their value set. Just is what it is. We're hitting pause for a moment, but there's plenty more ahead so don't go anywhere. Thanks for sticking around. Let's get right back into the action.

[C]

Okay, last thing about the war. Israel has officially now seized a larger percentage of Lebanon's total landmass than Russia has taken from Ukraine since its 2022 invasion. The latter was a meeting met with international uproar and unprecedented multisexual sanctions.

[B]

Multi sectoral sanctions. I thought you said sexual. I was like, wait, what? This is getting juicy.

[C]

While the former is barely even mentioned, I do want to highlight this because we just said that Iran is the largest state sponsor of terrorism them and that is why everybody needed to rally and fight them. The rest of the world was like, actually they're not that bad. We're okay with them. It's just you eat us and Israel. Israel has attacked multiple of the GCC nations. Israel has violated treaties, peace, ceasefires, all these things and now they have token and land mass from Lebanon.

[B]

Is that a true statement? Who did they attack in that? That's part of the gcc.

[C]

Southern Lebanon, they took Lebanon, Syria, they attacked it previously.

[B]

Let me get a list.

[C]

And then there was that false flag with Saudi Arabia, with Iran saying they didn't do it, us saying they didn't do it, and Israel saying I don't

[B]

know what happened, I need to see what countries are in the gcc. So yeah, if Israel really did attack countries in the Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, has Israel attacked any of those? I don't think so. Lebanon, certainly not in recent memory. Someone in chat will correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think so. Right now you're seeing unprecedented cooperation between Israel and the GCC nations, which was all the Abraham Accords. This is part of what was spiraling Iran out of control. Was like hold on a Second, we're losing our grip on the GCC nations, which is part of what created the tensions. Now, I'm certainly empathetic to anybody that looks at Israel or the US Quite frankly, at this point, and says, ick, I don't like the way that these guys are being bullies spreading out into other territories. Trump was talking about taking Greenland. Trump was calling Canada the 51st state. Trump, at one point, if I remember correctly, was like, flirting with. He never did anything but flirting with, violating the sovereignty of Mexico to deal with drug gangs. So it's like, I get anybody that has beef with that. And I think Netanyahu said directly that the Greater Israel Project is near dear to his heart, and that is very expansionary into the region. I think that there is a very significant contingent of Israelis that would love to take over more of the Middle East. So all of that makes all the sense in the world to me as to why people would be bothered by that. However, there is an economic reality to be faced. You've got before, when Lebanon was a Christian country. Oh, God, this is going to be racy. When Lebanon was a Christian country, they were thriving, and now they have become, like, very, very problematic. I don't know what word to use. They've been bombing Israel. And listen, this is one of those. Like, if Canada and Mexico were constantly with the US I'd just be like, guys, what are you doing? Like, at some point, take an Egyptian approach and be like, yeah, we tried it. We're just going to create a little bit of space between us and we're going to leave Israel alone. That would aggressively be my advice to Hezbollah, to Hamas. Now we can get into the Palestine of it all and the apartheid of it all if we want. It feels like it's going to derail. I'll plant those flags just so people don't think that I'm unaware of that reality.

[C]

You saw the Bibi files that Tucker Carlson released that talked about how Bibi Netanyahu had a part with funding Hamas. There was a standout on October 7th.

[B]

I mean, that's been rumored for sure for a long time. And I don't. Are people confused by that? Like, that's what nations do. So right now, America is out there trying to fund people that we think will be to our advantage, even if later down the road, they become our enemy. We were partners with Stalin during World War II, only to then realize Russia was our biggest enemy as soon as the war was over. I. Yeah, I think countries do this all the time. I'm sure Israel's doing it. I'm sure Iran is doing it. So it's what countries do. I think part of my disconnect with people is that I will often just talk about the world the way that it is without getting caught up in the art of it all. I wish that humans weren't like that. I wish that we didn't have to do that. But the reality is that we do do it a lot.

[C]

Yeah, it's going to be hilarious in 300 years when the Greater Israel is the superpower of the US and they're. They dick us over just like we did the British. And then it becomes everybody's speaking Hebrew.

[B]

And yeah, this is where you better know what you're willing to fight and die for. Because just because Israel is our ally today does not mean that they're going to be our ally tomorrow.

[C]

We're not ally if we put boots on the ground.

[B]

Yeah, the. The US is, as the masses are, very much the tide is turning against Israel in a big way. I'd be. I don't know the stats off the top of my head, but I believe I have seen things that say with young people, it's like even way more lopsided. And so as they are able to effectively take over the world just by becoming the people in power, then it's going to be a totally different relationship with Israel.

[C]

We got to talk about Charlie Kirk. Candace Owens is doing a victory dance right now. She. I know her episode was probably crazy this weekend, but the ballistics on the bullet did not match. This could be a nothing burger. Then the sheriff resigns. It could be something.

[B]

It could be a something burger.

[C]

Yeah, that's what I mean.

[B]

Is this just smoked double patty with cheese. This is a Royale with cheese. All right. Rumors are flying that Candace Owens was right about everything. Charlie Kirk was not killed by Tyler Robinson. According to a new ballistics report. Anyway. So the new ballistics report from the ATF says that the bullet that killed Charlie Kirk was not conclusively from Tyler Robinson's gun. Okay. Now, the way that it's being framed by the Daily Mail is the exaggerated version that it wasn't him. Like, this is proof. That's not what's real. When you look more closely, what the report actually said is just that it's not conclusive. When the bullet hit Kirk's body, if all of this is being reported straight, it struck a bone. It broke up on impact. The forensic pathologist recovered fragments, not an intact bullet. Law enforcement sources told Fox News it is Impossible to do ballistics analysis on a bullet fragment. Additionally, and I haven't seen many people reporting on this because it's not cool and not conspiratorial. But the spent shell casing found on the scene did match the rival, the. The rifle. So you're in a situation where it's not that the bullet was like, this didn't come from that gun. Dun, dun, dun. It was. It's a bullet fragment. We can't tell.

[C]

We need a dun button. That's what we need.

[B]

We need a. But the shell casing on the scene did the gun trigger has Tyler Robinson's DNA on it. So this is not the. I think conspiracy theorists are up. Big moment that people thought it was. A retired FBI supervisory special agent said that basically, this is a pretty significant piece of evidence for the prosecution and pretty damning for the defense. The defense doesn't even have the full ATF case file yet. It's only a summary. As the retired FBI agent put it, nobody outside the ATF lab knows why they couldn't make the match yet. Now, I'll admit this will be a far more engrossing story if Israel or somebody else is the one that killed Charlie. But right now, the narrative is up against a confession to Tyler's dad, a text message confession to his lover, and a massive video archive of Tyler actually on the day of the assassination, as well as the spent bullet casing, as well as his finger, DNA from his finger on the trigger being present. So all of this is probably just the defense trying to buy themselves more time to find a way out from under all of that. And on March 27, Robinson's defense team filed a motion to delay his May preliminary hearing. And it was. The thing about the bullet was just buried on page 22 of the filing. So the whole thing the Daily Mail took and ran with as proof of conspiracy probably more just a headline grabber than anything in reality. The Daily Mail basically turned that into just a headline that was something like bullet used to kill Charlie Kirk did not match the rifle. And it's like sort of it was inconclusive. That is true. But the implication is more for conspiracy theorists than it is something that's real. Within hours, the Internet, of course, was going crazy, exonerating Robinson and saying that there had to be a second shooter. We're going to need this one to play out. The reality is that fragmented bullets are routinely inconclusive in ballistics analysis. So unable to identify being confused with came from a different gun is what's causing the Drama here. It. It means that the physical evidence was just too degraded. So I think people want to slow down here. This is not the bombshell that people are making it out to be. FBI is still currently running a second comparative bullet bullet analysis and a bullet led analysis. Neither is complete yet. So the defense filing for a preliminary request for more time is not exoneration. So they're sitting on like 61,000 pages, 31 hours of audio, over 700 hours of video. So they're just asking for more time to go through all of that. So we'll see how it comes out in the final analysis.

[C]

Yeah, there's been somebody spamming in the chat. Like, it's a bullet fragment. It can't be tied to any gun. It's just because it's a piece of the book. So, yes, caveat. We know all those good things.

[B]

We'll see. But it's like, this is one of those. I almost don't want to deny people they're fun.

[C]

You know what I mean?

[B]

Like, this is one we don't know. So it is possible that it wasn't him. And there's all these weird things if it's true and I didn't do the research, so I don't know that it is. But it's a great coincidence that the claim was the last time the bullet didn't match the weapon was when Martin Luther King Jr. Was killed. So it's like, when I saw that headline, I was like, oh, but then obviously you dig a little bit deeper and it's like, okay, maybe not so much bullet fragment, yada, yada. So. But, yeah, I want this to be fun right up until the end. I think the punchline is going to be Tyler Robinson killing them, but full stop. I want. Yeah. But I want to have a good time as we go. I'm not going to lie. That's just being honest. So, yeah, I do. I do get why people think that there's something more going on here.

[C]

Can we. I'm going to put on my conspiracy edutainment hat on for a second because I loved how you said conspiracy as a form of entertainment. Now, I followed a tiktoker. I'm not going to give him a platform because his ideas are wild, but he's just like. Like, yo, I feel like they clone people. And I. And he says it so passionately, and it's just like, oh, I get it now.

[B]

Like he says, did you hear Matt Gates?

[C]

Oh, with the hybrid alien.

[B]

Yes, Matt Gaetz. I watched the video myself. Matt Gates said a uniform military. I don't know if he said officer, but a person in military uniform, a real part of the military in an unclassified briefing said that aliens are being co bred like the DNA with humans. Here we go, pull it up. Listen, than the man himself. I think the most important information will be the biologics that are not human that have been discovered. And like even some of the briefings that aren't classified just, just need to be out in the public. I mean I had someone come and brief me who was in a military uniform, worked for the United States army, that was briefing me on the locations of hybrid breeding programs where captured aliens were breeding with humans to create some hybrid race that could engage his face. Benny's like, yo, I've said some wild. But Gates like can we. Come on bro. Like even my audience has their limits. Actual uniform member of the United States Army. Brief me on that. Non human biologics. I want to know what he cut out there.

[C]

What was that?

[B]

What?

[C]

So there is this seething need for like the world is out to get me. I don't, I'm trying my hardest. I'm not able to get on this property ladder. I'm mad, I'm frustrated. There's aliens over here breeding with people. We have all these wars. So it's like, I don't know if this conspiracy breeds on that frustration or if it's just an entertainment escape. It's the evolution of reality TV because the Kardashians don't do it for us anymore. I don't know where that next thing is, but it's just if, if Charlie Kirk, if Tyler Robinson gets off, do you know what that would do to TP usa? Like that would implode. Like the Internet would go crazy.

[B]

The Internet would go absolutely insane. There would be backlash in an extreme fashion. That would be wild. But to your earlier question, I do think this is partly conspiracy as the new reality tv. It is a new form of entertainment where you've got like, I don't know what to call the form of journalism, but it's like you're doing journalistic looking things to dig into the conspiracy to do the John Nash for people that don't know he's a guy from A Beautiful Mind. He's schizophrenic. It's not exclusive to schizophrenics. They're just early to the party. But they'll see like patterns in things where there actually aren't meaningful patterns. Like there are patterns, they're just not Meaningful patterns. And so correlation, not causation type. Exactly. Watching Candace feels like that. I feel like I'm watching John Nash at the board. And I'm like, those patterns are there, but I don't think they mean what you think they mean. And so there is an entertainment level to it. She's obviously doing incredibly well. And honestly, shout out to Candace for just. Just reading this moment. Right again. This is not a moral statement of whether she should be doing it or not. But it's like she understands how to marshal people's attention, whether she believes what she's doing or not. For now, I'll just assume she does. And she's seeing these patterns that don't add up to anything, but she's drawing all these conclusions, and it's wild. And there's some part of her that believes that because you feel it, which is like anathema to me. It is the exact opposite of how I approach the world. But she believes that if you feel it, that's proof that it's true, which is the wildest shit ever. And I advise you guys never, ever, ever to interface with the world like that. But it really makes for good tv, so you've got that part of it. And then, Drew, I almost. I didn't spin myself out of control, but for the first time, this question grabbed me so hard that it was like having an out of body experience. I want to see if I can infect the everybody who's listening right now. I want to see if I can affect you with this same thing. Okay, so Drew and I are grappling with why does this stuff catch hold? New form of entertainment? Yes, that's part of it. But the other is people really do lie. You really are being gaslit. Governments really do conspiracies. False flags are real. When you start looking at history, you see that these patterns repeat. So then we paint forward well, everything is a conspiracy because we're losing faith in institutions. Okay, that's not the weird part. That's not what gave me the out of body experience. All of that rides on the back of a willingness to believe a very important thing, which is the world is not what I think it is. Now, anybody who thinks the world is what they think it is, I pose to you the question that I've heard a gazillion times, but for some reason this weekend, it gave me an almost out of body experience. Why is there something instead of nothing?

[C]

Okay, why is there something?

[B]

Why is there something instead of nothing? All of us can agree that things exist. Because we exist. So we may disagree about the laws of physics, we may disagree about God or the multiverse or whatever, but the thing we can't disagree on is that there is something. And all you can ever hope to do is push that back, back, back, back, back, back, back. So my favorite thing pushes the miracle back one level. And I say, this is all a simulation. Okay, but who the fuck, like, built the simulation?

[C]

Who turned? Who flipped the computer?

[B]

Yeah. So eventually you get to what's known as the unmoved mover. Many people will refer to that as God. I think people personify God in a way that just becomes nonsensical. But I think that they're grabbing onto. It's not even a deep intuition. They're grabbing onto something that is so obvious and so foundational that when you get moments like this where institutions, our trust in institutions break down, and therefore, we cannot hold onto a narrative which is like this soothing little blanket over the fact that we don't have an answer. Why is there something instead of nothing? And all of a sudden, all hell breaks loose. We're not at the level of narrative anymore. And we all collide with whatever level our intellect allows us to collide with it. Because my intellectual collision does not exist at the level of, say, Eric Weinstein, who collides with this at a much higher level. But I collide with it and I go, whoa. Like, this is crazy. Why is there something instead of nothing? Now I have to grapple with whether I want to believe it or not. There is an unmoved mover. So I can tell you I don't believe in God, but I sure as hell can't tell you that I don't believe in an unmoved mover. Because things exist and there's no way to, like, push it. You're always going to reach the well, then that God is the real one. That's the unmoved mover. But eventually you get to an unmoved mover, and then you collide with my brain. Can't make sense of that. Like, I just can't make sense of it. And so you put that into a moment where institutions have lost their power. And all of a sudden, everybody's grappling with that in their own way. And it gets weird fast. You get me saying we're living in a simulation. You get Drew saying that Jesus is real. You get other people being like, everything is a conspiracy. Charlie Kirk was killed by the Israelis. Because no narrative holds all of us from having to contend with the world is not the way that we think it is.

[C]

That was profound.

[B]

Well, thank you.

[C]

Was it Jordan Peterson who said we have a God shaped hole?

[B]

We have a God shaped hole. He, whether he says that phrase or not, he very eloquently touches on that. We all have to contend with that.

[C]

Yeah, we have a God shape hole and we're just filling it with other things. So I think identity and all types of things can become that. And to your point, it conspiracy, identity politics, religion, some people maga, that's their God. Like capitalism, socialism, everybody you know has the thing. Okay, I got one more conspiracy brain route, let's go. I don't know if you've been seeing the Dan Bongiano, Tommy Massey back and forth on Twitter.

[B]

No say more.

[C]

Okay, so Dan Mangiano called out Thomas Massie, called him a fraud and said this guy's the worst politician. I called him three times, he didn't pick up. Cuz he doesn't want to understand the truth. Thomas Massey replied, gave like an eight thing. Well actually you called, you fabricated this lies, you were trying to intimidate staffers. FBI whistle blowover was really a way to out FBI people who are holding the FBI accountable. There was a bunch of back and forth. He came out with receipts. But what was interesting is Thomas Massie showed him, the screen showed a screenshot of his calls. He was like wait, you didn't call me at 1 in the morning. You didn't call me at 2 in the morning. Why are your screenshots messed up? So Thomas Massie showed his screenshots, they were 8:00am, 7, 7:30pm you know, reasonable hours. And Knoxy Love, I gotta give credit where credit is due. Retweeted Dan Maggiano actually posted screenshots of his phone calls in a wannabe gotcha to Massey. Turns out Dan's timestamps match the time zone in Israel. What self owned himself. So if you do the five, five hours from the east coast, it's actually interesting. And this is about the FC Transparency Act. So it's like you were literally calling him in Israel as you were trying to figure this out. So again, it could be causation, correlation, it could be his phone was updating, he could have been on a jet traveling.

[B]

But that's amazing.

[C]

Brainrock conspiracy theories are going crazy with that. So that goes there.

[B]

Yeah, there it is. There it is. Yeah. This is not going away, man. Israel is going to stay in the limelight for quite some time.

[C]

Now I want to bring us back to our earlier debate about the economy Yep. It's kind of funny when you caught him, I think chief inflationist Jerome Powell earlier today. Well done. It's funny when even the Fed is like, hey guys, we're spending a little bit too much money. Like, I think we got a money problem. Is there a way out? How do you see it? To us, break it down to us,

[B]

There is a way out. And Powell finally admitted that the debt path will not end well. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sat down with roughly 400 Harvard economic students on Monday and finally admitted that America's fiscal trajectory is horrid. His message, nice and simple. The level of debt is not sustainable. It's like really you suppose? Powell said the path is like, if we keep going down this path, it is not going to end well. Which to me is the most obvious statement in all of human history. I think his exact quote was, it will not end well if we don't do something fairly soon, bro. Watching Powell, the chief inflation officer, talk about debt being unsustainable was a bit like watching an arsonist talk about how bad fire is, is. But he's right. The direction our debt is traveling is mathematically incompatible with long term stability. Powell said the federal government debt is growing substantially faster than our economy. That ratio is going up and in the long run that's kind of the definition of unsustainable. Exactly. I have been banging this drum like a psychopath. The debt to GDP ratio, which is what he's talking about, is unsustainable. Anytime anybody has gone over 130% debt to GDP for any prolonged period of time, measured like 18 months, has ended up in open violence. The only exception is Japan. Okay, so if you're going to try to mimic Japan's very values laden culture, good luck. And so the odds that anybody else is going to be able to do that is effectively zero right now. Debt. Interest payments on the national debt in the US are projected to exceed a trillion dollars in fiscal year 2026. That's just, just the interest. That's just the interest. That's nearly tripled the 345 billion the government paid in 2020. That was just five years ago. 6. You guys get the idea. It's not that long ago. Okay? In just the first three months of the current fiscal year, interest payments hit 270 billion, already surpassing defense spending for the first for that same period. So Propal's proposal is really basic and it's kind of what we were talking about earlier. It's not going to happen. He said we don't have to pay the debt down. We just need to have primary balance and begin to have the economy actually growing more quickly than the debt. And I love the way that people say that, as if that were easy. Getting the economy growing is hard. Our best shot of that was with Trump, but he's doing so many like side quests that it's like he's just shooting himself in the foot. So the reality that we end up growing faster than our debt currently is is possible in exactly one way. And that way is AI. If AI is able to make the kind of productivity gains that it shows the potential to do, if you deregulate sufficiently so that companies can be born and AI actually starts achieving something close to self improving AGI, then maybe borrowing. Borrowing. Barring that, you are going to have a problem. And right now we are headed one way down the path of this becoming a problem. So all of the things that Powell is proposing, none of them are happening right now. And that is the very difficult thing. The CBO projects that debt held by the public is going to surge from 101% of GDP today to 120% by 2036. That would eclipse even the post World War II record. So this is just wild, man. This never in a million years did I think that banging this economic drum would become the thing that I do the most in my career. It's so wild. Remember, Drew, I will say this to you so if you. It reminds me of the intimate truth of this reality. I started all of this YouTube because I had become so wealthy on the back of a certain set of beliefs and values that I was like, anybody can do this. And let me just get these beliefs and values out into the world only to watch the vast majority of people do absolutely nothing with them. Which is still shocking to this day. And then when Covid hit trying to like help people navigate their way through all of this, I was like, okay, the mindset thing is really only helping. I call it 2%. Let me see if I can just do something that's super tactical around how to like balance your personal budget was how I thought about it in the beginning. Little did I know that that would spiral into. Because I remember thinking in the beginning just being like, why do people keep saying that the economy is rigged against you? Because it worked perfectly for me and I didn't come from money. So I'm like, I don't understand why people say that it's rigged. And then as you get into it, you're like, oh my God, this really is rigged. And it just so happened that my particular skill set and my particular choice in life led me to own a whole bunch of assets. And I had no idea that I had dodged a bullet by owning assets. I just didn't know.

[C]

Yeah.

[B]

And so then as you, like, unfold how all of this works, that's just insane. It's absolutely insane. And I, trust me, as the island of your knowledge grows, so grows the shore of your ignorance. So the more I learn about the economy, the more I realize that there's just so much I don't know. Were you here when we talked about the Euro dollar? I don't think you were. So the euro dollar has just absolutely startled me. And that was the deep dive that just came out, I think.

[C]

Yeah.

[B]

So I was like, for something that Titanic to have not been on my radar at, like, I knew abstractly that there is a way that like overnight paper worked. I just didn't exactly know what that was. Now I understand it and I'm just like, whoa. Like, there's so many things that are in plain sight people just don't make contact with. And so they are constantly befuddled by how the world actually works.

[C]

It's one of those things that, like, once you find one roach, that means that there's a thousand behind the curbs, I think. So he's like, oh, this is just about inflation. And then you rip open the cupboards and everything is going everywhere. So going back to the Fed and our spending problem, I think this chart kind of does the best job of showing it. This is what gets me mad about Democrats because I feel like there's a layup right now. I feel like it's a basketball game. It's seventh. It's game seven. There's a wide open shot right now and it's just a layup down the middle. Just be a layup down the middle. But instead you want a 360, take a step back and shoot it from the half court line when you don't need to do it. What does that mean? In a lot of our spending that we do from government, we think that it goes directly to the people. But what happens is there's always this administration layer.

[B]

Layer.

[C]

So if this chart, as true as it is for public schools, as you can see, the red line is administrators, administrative staff. This line is the exact mirror of healthcare. There's the. There's not more doctors, there's not more nurses, there's more healthcare admins when it goes into anything. Student loan processing. There's not More students. There's not more universities, but there's more student loan processing companies. It's that bureaucracy in the middle that really causes the. The muck.

[B]

Yeah.

[C]

Is this something that. Because we always talk about Social Security, we talk about Medicare, we talk about a lot of those things. Can we just attack the bureaucracy? Would that be a good start to kind of get rid of this deficit spending that is causing so many problems?

[B]

Aggressively. But the thing that people have to understand about this chart is what's known as the overproduction of elites. So, man, I really don't like that there is a real world concept of elites, but there are. And so elites are the people that go. They get highly educated, they come typically from middle to upper class families. And you get to a point where you start turning out more of them than there's actual demand for. And so your elite class starts getting too big. God, I hate that all of this is true. But this just plays out over and over in history. So you start over educating people. You don't have enough people in the trades. You start getting all these people that are of the bureau bureaucratic class and you've got to have a place for them. And whenever you give a department a budget or an organization a budget, even if they're trying to end cancer, what they actually end up doing is funding the organization. And the organization itself gets bigger and bigger and bigger. And you do that by stuffing the bureaucracy. And so we're seeing it in education. This is why we spend more per student than anybody else. And we get middle level output. And so it's just absolutely wild. It's devastatingly painful. The same thing happens to Drew's point in the government. So you collect more tax dollars, you keep deficit spending, you give people government jobs, you do things like try to get people, the homeless, the assistance that they need. And then the homeless population just goes up. And the department designed to help the homeless ends up being one of them for every two homeless people. I mean, it's just absolute absurdity. But by the time you get there, you get to the point where people feel like a job is a right, that the government should employ people, that taxes are a thing where that money doesn't belong to the successful, it belongs to the government. And then the government is going to dole that out to people. And so the value system of everybody breaks down so catastrophically that we just end up because it's being shaped by this overproduced elite class. And they just want more and more and more. And then the elites become A tumor on the working class of the society, which is exactly what we're seeing now. And this is where everything in place, clothes and so it just is real. We are over producing elites. They are becoming parasitic on the entire economy and they do it in the guise of helping and being empathetic. But the reality is they want to make sure that they have a job that matches what they have in their mind that's nice and white collar, that allows them to use their gender studies degree. I mean, it's just fucking crazy, man. And so this is why I say some people need to be chased by a lion when things are hard. You suddenly realize, oh, if I knew how to do that thing, then I'd be in a much better position. I'm going to go learn how to do that thing. And that's when people are skills based. It's meritocracy. Everybody has to compete to stay alive. And in that phase you're trying to get to the point where not everybody has to fight and all that, but then you end up getting too successful and not enough people have to fight. You overproduce the elites and you end up where we're at now. So yes, if you could dramatically reduce the bureaucracy, you'd be in a much better position. But to do that you have to defund the government. Push as much of this to the private sector as possible. Stop taxing the private sector to death in the way that we're trying to do now. Stop chasing them out of your state and or your country with the ridiculous tax policies that are being floated like the wealth tax, et cetera, et cetera. Instead, focus relentlessly on bringing the K together in the middle so not punitively taxing people out of the top bracket, but instead making it harder to do things like regulatory capture. Reducing inflation to zero would be ideal so the prices aren't running away from the average person. Bring manufacturing back to the US so that there are more demand for trade jobs here in the us. It's a very relatively simple, straightforward set of things. We just don't have the political will to do them. Largely because of the overproduction of elites that all tend to lean left.

[C]

This always brings me back to like the mouse utopia of it all. Is the overproduction of elites just where we are in this stage of the empire, or is this a switch we can turn off?

[B]

It's interesting that you bring in mouse utopia. Okay, so two things. Can we just flip the switch? No, it's just not psychologically where people are and what I'm finding is when you're fighting against culture, you're talking about 20 to 40 years. So there's no, like, it happens overnight.

[C]

Right.

[B]

By the time somebody's 14 or 15, it's pretty baked. Like, they are largely who they're going to be in terms of temperament, in terms of like study habits, discipline, things like that. It's not that they can't change and all of us have a story of somebody who did, but you're largely the person that you're going to become by the time you're 25.

[C]

It's done.

[B]

So it's, it really, I think the brain starts pruning at 11, which is why if you don't pick up a language by the time you're 11, you're always going to speak with an accent. And that has to do with physical restructuring of the brain, where the brain goes, cool, got it. I know what I need to do to be successful in this environment. And so you really start hardening again by the time you're 14 or 15. Like, sexual preferences and fetishes all get locked into place around 14 or 15. Which, by the way, be careful, kind of anime you take in, man, boys and girls. Like, I was thinking about that this weekend. I was like, oh, this is how some of this is getting so weird. So just be a little thoughtful there. But yeah, so I, I, it's not a switch that you flip. It is a value system that you have to change slowly over multiple generations.

[C]

So, I mean, with a transition like this, it's only natural we talk about Kristi Gnome at this point. You set me up for this one. I was gonna go somewhere else.

[B]

Here we go. This is a fun story. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem is asking for privacy and prayers tonight. She's said to be devastated by a report alleging her husband has been what is being called a cross dressing double life. Senior national correspondent Rich Edson has details tonight. Good evening, Rich. Good evening, Bret. Well, former Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and now President Trump are responding to a report regarding Noem's husband's alleged online activities. A spokesperson tells the Daily Mail that she's devastated and that, quote, the family

[C]

was blindsided by this.

[B]

And they ask for, I don't understand why anybody's blindsided by this stuff. Human sexuality is just weird. And so it's like, I don't think anybody wants to be put on blast. Like, if we could just read everybody's mind and be like, what's that weird little position that you're A little too into. What's that thing that you saw out of the corner of your eye one time? You're like, ooh, that's kind of sexy and weird. It's like, yeah, it. It just is what it is, man. We should all be like, yo, what are the evolutionary roots of this stuff? Now, if you think that sexuality is just a choice, sure. Then all of this stuff is weird. Like, why is he. It is strange to see. I'm not gonna lie. Don't look at your phone right now. This would be one of those times where. I hope you're not watching.

[C]

His nipples ain't even lined up. You got to put the left.

[B]

I feel a little bound for all that.

[C]

Your nipples? Yeah.

[B]

If you're gonna wear a fake breastplate.

[C]

Yeah. Don't mess up the titties.

[B]

That's wild. Listen, humans are weird. It just is what it is.

[C]

I think she's just jealous. His are bigger.

[B]

Hey, those are.

[C]

I need the rib shot.

[B]

If they were a little more symmetrical, they're nice, but they are way too asymmetrical. I'd be like, your eyes are not looking in the same place, sir. That's wild. But, yeah. I am constantly confused by how confused people are about human sexuality. Like, yeah, it is a weird and wonderful world out there, but it's a weird world.

[C]

Different strokes, different folks.

[B]

Yep.

[C]

Okay, back to the regularly scheduled program. You said really fast.

[B]

I do have to say, there's something about the gear that we all go into when you're having sex. Like, you'll talk different, use different words. Like, there's just a different vibe. You can feel the line when you cross it. It. Where it's like, oh, now, like, it's sex and having that collide with, like, daily life. I remember thinking this when I was talking to Destiny, and he's been so just, like, open and upfront about his sexuality. But there was something weird about that juxtaposition of this guy that can talk extremely eloquently about a gazillion political topics, but in the same breath will, like, tell you the things that he does in bed. And he's been, like, doxxed and had revenge porn and all that stuff. So there's. There's just, like, a whole universe of things that, should you decide to go down that road, you will collide with. And it. It's just a very strong reminder. All of us have that gear. And when your sex gear collides with, like, your everyday life gear, it's so jarring. Yeah. So that is A weird thing that we all are confronted with now because there's phones everywhere. So many people have done sex tapes. It's just like the two worlds are colliding now in a way that they never did historically.

[C]

And there is something to the sanctity of like the bedroom, like that is supposed to be closed, you and your partner, you know, and you know, everybody wants to be a hoe and stuff now, so whatever. Different strokes and voice. But it is something to now have it on the Fox News or something like that.

[B]

Yeah, Someone like, could hack your phone. Like, listen, unfortunately in my youth I would have been confused that women, they don't want a dick pic, like, under any circumstance. Even my wife does not want a dick pic from me. And it's like, if you grew up with a phone, I would have taken reams terabytes of dick pics as a teenager. Terabytes. And so I'm just like, thank the Lord that that was not a thing. I would have had to have mine, like developed at the local, like our photo place. And it's like, yeah, I'm not going to do that. But I actually, as, as a young person would have been confused. I would have thought they'd want to see it. And so. Oh, God. Yeah, I feel for people.

[C]

Yeah, this is a rabbit hole. We don't need to go down. The comments are starting to get very interesting. Yes. Okay, we got to talk about Anthropic, which to me should have been a more bombshell development. I think on the streets, in the culture, they're leading the AI race now. ChatGPT fumbled the bag. Gemini had its pop. Claude is now number one. There was an accidental leak of this entire source code. Now, is this the death of the company? This seems that it can be.

[B]

It's not going to be the death of the company, but Anthropic is now basically an open source company. They just didn't intend to be. Anthropic shipped a routine update to Claude code on Tuesday and at the same time accidentally included a debugging file that pointed directly to a publicly accessible zip archive that contained roughly 500,000 lines of Claude's own source code. Nobody had to hack anything. The file was just there. The guy that did it on Twitter obviously got fired. He said, I really thought that by including that file it was helping the developers here. And I just don't think he realized that it was exposed. Brutal. There's a security researcher, Chao Fan Shu, who spotted the exposure and posted the direct link on X within hours. Mirrored repositories were appearing all over GitHub, some accumulating tens of thousands of forks. So other copies where people are starting to tweak it. Before Anthropic's DMCA takedowns hit, the leak code contained dozens of unreleased feature flags for capabilities fully built but not yet shipped, including the ability for Claude to review its own sessions to improve future performance. It's basically like a persistent assistant running in the background mode, making things better while users are idle, which is incredible, by the way. I can't wait for that feature to come out. And it allows for remote control from a phone or separate browser. So they basically just released a detailed engineering roadmap app handed to every competitor for free. Anthropics confirmed that it happened. They called it release packaging issue caused by human error, not a security breach. Thankfully, no customer data was released and they must be very grateful. No model weights were exposed. That's like the real proprietary sauce. So basically the thing that is protecting them from this being not more catastrophic is that and the fact that they're still a private company. If they were a public company, oh God, they would have been hammered by this. Now, this is the second major data incident at Anthropic in under a week. Five days earlier, a CMS misconfiguration exposed nearly 3,000 internal files, including a draft blog post detailing a powerful unreleased model known internally as Mythos. It's also the second time this specific mistake has happened. Happened. Yikes. A nearly identical source map leak hit an earlier version of Claude code in February of 25. That also reduces the sort of catastrophe of all this in that this happened before. It didn't do anything to slow down their progress. But two significant accidental disclosures in five days at a company whose core pitch is safety first AI that raises concerns. The blueprint for building a cloud code competitor now is also considerably easier because you have an exact understanding of so much of what they do. So, yeah, this. This was a pretty rough blunder. They're not loving it, I assure you of that.

[C]

So you're saying this isn't the death blow there, but it's just something they'll just have to kind of bounce back because the secret sauce, like you said,

[B]

it was like you've. When I think about, there are even things that we're doing in Kaizen that I wouldn't want people to know about. And it's not like. Like, if you know about it, it breaks the company. But at the same time, like, some of these things are like, oh, I never thought of that. And now somebody's off and running with that thing. I try not to be overly precious with stuff like that. Usually for a company of our size, the bigger problem is going to be people don't even know that we're building a video game. And so when we go to launch it in December of 2027, just getting people to be aware of the fact that we have it is going to be a far bigger issue than me worrying about people finding some of the secrets. Secrets. But there are some things that I'm like, yeah, I probably don't want people to know that we're doing that.

[C]

On the pinnacle of Oracle's 20-30K layoff and Marc Andreessen saying that AI is just the best cover story for this moment. Do you believe him that the AI is causing this disruption or is AI just a convenient excuse right now at the moment?

[B]

So I think this is twofold. One, I think it is very real that people are laying people off because of AI. I know, because we've done it ourselves. Not that we laid people off, but we didn't rehire roles because when they left we were just like, this is so much easier to do without. We don't need that. It's allowed us to dramatically reduce our executive layer, which, Jesus, you want to talk about cost savings? Because now I don't need people telling other people what to do. I can just hire the doers and they're so efficient, so I need far fewer of them, which means I need that middle management layer much less. So just from personal experience, I know that that is real. Now I think it's also real that some of these layoffs, what percentage? I don't know. But some of these layoffs are, I'm sure, being marked up to AI. But in reality, AI is just the perfect cover story for people that are like, yeah, we over hired. We want to be able to reduce our workload, which frees up a massive amount. It frees up billions of dollars of free cash flow for Oracle by doing this. But we need a way to make it seem positive. And right now Wall street absolutely loves people laying off people for AI because it means you're getting leaner and meaner. And if you think back to what Elon already showed everybody when he went into Twitter is that there's so much bureaucratic bloat inside of these companies that getting rid of that, if you know how to do it well, can free up a lot of people. And so I think that there's a mix Now. I also Think Marc Andreessen, who is one of the sharpest thinkers out there on tech and investing. I mean, the guy's absolutely brilliant. Love him to do death, hope to have him back on the show at some point. But I also think that he's got motivated reasoning, so he invests in a lot of these companies and he wants to make sure that AI doesn't start getting a bad reputation, that people aren't looking at AI as the great killer of jobs. Because I think he has to fight back against the narrative for the public, because Wall street loves that AI is reducing jobs, the public does not. And so Andreessen, I think is running a bit of COVID for like, hey everybody, let's not panic, like, everything's good, this is not a big deal. And that's because there's a weird thing that's going to happen that's already happening anytime you have this major technological advancement. What you do is you wildly disrupt a generation or two. And so even though down the road it probably, if it keeps with history, is going to create more jobs than it eliminates, it's still going to massively disrupt a huge swath of humanity. It happened during the Industrial Revolution, it happened during the great electrification, it happened during the great Internetification, and it's going to happen again now with AI. And given how disruptive it is to the people that are, say, north of 35 years old, that's going to be real. We're going to have to contend with that. And so I think that there is a bit of motivated reasoning on behalf of Marc Andreessen, who does not want to see public opinion really turn against AI, which is certainly could. So I think he's got to be thoughtful about it. Boys and girls, I love you guys the most. Please know we are doing a zero to founder AI Masterclass on Thursday, April 9th at 1pm Pacific. This is starting to really be something that's transformed a lot of lives. We brought somebody on live on the last one because they've ended up having really exciting success. Please, I. I don't end up saying like this is going to make you rich or anything like that. That business is hard. And what I'm trying to actually teach people how to do is use AI to build a real business. So I'm not promising a get rich quick scheme, but I am promising that you live in a deterministic universe. And therefore, if you understand how something works, you can actually build something that matters and make real money. And we've got people that are doing that very successfully. So this is a free masterclass. The AI masterclass. Again. Thursday, April 9, 1pm Pacific. And then zero to founder is the school that we have for people that either have lost their job because of AI or want to start a company because of AI. And we're going to show you guys how to leverage AI for free, how to leverage this to start your own company. So if you have any interest in that, make sure you join me Thursday, April 9, 1pm Pacific, for a free AI masterclass. All right, that's it. Drew again. Welcome back. Shout out, Ryan, to who held down the fort. Very excited. Love having him in the community. And so, yeah, with that, boys and girls, we will see you on Friday. Much love, everybody. Peace out.