Fighter Jet Downed Over Iran, Trump’s Oil Power Play, and China’s Bold Trade War Retaliation | The Tom Bilyeu Show LIVE

Summary

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Podcast Summary: Fighter Jet Downed Over Iran, Trump’s Oil Power Play, and China’s Bold Trade War Retaliation

Podcast: Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Episode: The Tom Bilyeu Show LIVE
Date: April 3, 2026
Host: Tom Bilyeu | Co-host: Drew

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Main Theme

This episode delivers a rapid-fire, in-depth breakdown of urgent global developments in geopolitics, economics, and technology. The big stories: the downing of a US fighter jet over Iran, President Trump’s aggressive new oil, trade, and pharma policies, China’s escalation in the global trade war, and related socioeconomic and technological fallout. Tom and Drew analyze how these headline events interlock and what they signal about the breakdown of the old world order, US economic strategy under Trump, China’s counter-moves, and the vulnerabilities of American society—both practical and philosophical.

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1. Breaking News: US Fighter Jet Shot Down Over Iran

Key Points:

• US F15 Strike Eagle downed over Iran by IRGC; pilot(s) missing with contradictory reports about their capture ([00:01], [06:11]).
  • Iran’s initial claim it was an F35; images confirm it’s an F15E.
  • Search and rescue ongoing, with reports a US rescue helicopter came under fire and withdrew.
• Potential escalation scenarios:
  • If IRGC mistreats pilots (parading/execution), public sentiment in the US could explode ([03:01]).
    • "If the IRGC hangs them, drags them through the town square... all that would do is fuel the war hawks." (Drew, [03:16])
  • Iran could opt for diplomacy and try to position itself as rational vs. US aggression ([03:42]).
    • "That would be an amazing strategic move on their part.” (Tom, [03:42])
• Greater implications:
  • US claims of air supremacy and the degradation of Iran’s capabilities are called into question.
  • “We do not have the level of total supremacy over the air that we’re being told that we do. And that’s going to change the way we move forward, that's for sure.” (Tom, [14:38])
• Emotional tone: sober, tense, sympathetic to military families ([05:55]-[06:11]).

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2. Trump’s Oil and Military Policy Pivot

Key Points:

• Trump’s address (Wed night): The US will exit Iran within weeks, regardless of Strait of Hormuz control ([15:36]).
  • "We're out in a couple weeks whether the strait is open or not. So if you need oil, go and get it yourself." (Tom, [15:47])
• Stated objectives: destroy Iranian military/nuclear capability but avoid regime change.
• Potential for escalation if US personnel are held captive; risk of aggressive military retaliation.
  • “If there are people in captivity and Trump does not believe negotiations are going well, he’s going to go ham.” (Tom, [15:47])
• Consequences:
  • Destruction of infrastructure could provoke a humanitarian crisis and migration surge, with echoes of prior US wars destabilizing global regions ([19:56]-[20:58]).
  • “If we walk out having blown up their civilian infrastructure and their oil, yo...there will be second and third order consequences that will be extraordinary.” (Tom, [17:12])
• Oil market response: prices spike ($110/barrel); Trump offers three paths for global oil buyers: buy from US, take oil by force, or wait it out ([20:58]).
  • “The US imports almost no oil through Hormuz and plans to keep it that way...But the price will go up because other countries will bid.” (Tom, [22:11])
• Discussion: US isolationism is possible but would carry major costs and could reindustrialize America at the price of higher consumer costs ([29:19]-[29:47]).

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3. China’s Shipping Retaliation and End of the Old World Order

Key Points:

• China has retaliated for being ousted from Panama Canal port control by detaining 70 Panama-flagged vessels, disrupting global supply chains ([54:52]-[54:55]).
  • “China is making the whole world pay for it...Detaining Panama-flag ships is how you strangle global trade.” (Tom, [54:52])
  • “If you want that knife in the back, keep running that game. So be very careful.” (Tom, [60:07])
• This is seen as a clever, non-kinetic response (“minimum force necessary”) compared to Iran’s more direct approach.
  • “China, they do it all with class...pull you aside...just enough bureaucratic nightmare that everything gets more costly and time consuming.” (Tom, [54:55])
• Theory: China is timing its moves to maximize pain during America’s Iran quagmire, targeting Japanese shipping as well ([60:07]).
  • "What if China is timing their retaliation to coincide with the war in Iran?...It's a very gentle reminder that we have leverage." (Tom, [62:30])
• Larger implication: the end of post-Cold War globalism—nations pursue self-interest, old alliances splinter, the “one world order” gives way to new, more turbulent realities ([26:34]-[28:31]).
  • "Your one world order is truly ending. A new world order is coming into place." (Tom, [26:34])

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4. US Economic Retrenchment: Tariffs, Pharma, and the Middle-Class Dilemma

Tariffs on Pharmaceuticals

• Trump imposes 100% tariff on non-US patented drugs; aims to force domestic pharma/logistics ([35:08]-[35:43]).
  • “He is trying to incentivize companies to make this stuff in the United States. That's exactly what needs to happen.” (Tom, [35:43])
• Offramps: reduced rates for building US plants, 0% if sign “most favored nation” pricing and new US operations start—but otherwise, high costs for importers ([35:43]).
• Trade-offs:
  • Costs will go up for consumers in short term (“Yale’s budget lab...even a 25% tariff would cost ~$600/year per household. These tariffs are four times that.” Tom, [41:02]).
  • Goal is to sacrifice some globalist cost benefits to restore US supply chain resilience and rebuild a broad, healthy middle class ([46:14]-[47:28]).

Middle-Class and “K-Shaped” Economy

• Tom’s thesis: US must “flatten the K” (close gap between asset-holders and not) by bringing jobs and manufacturing home—even if prices rise ([46:10]-[47:28]).
  • “There will be a problem of biblical proportions if you don’t flatten your K shaped economy.” (Tom, [44:21])
• Carrots & sticks: Tariffs are currently the main tool, but Tom calls for policies giving incentives to manufacture in the US, and for a cultural rediscovery of “love for America” to support that shift ([51:28]).
  • “Americans, you’ve got to find a way to love your country.” (Tom, [51:28])
• Larger context: Trump’s approach is “growth at any cost” via external aggression, not internal austerity and balance ([74:08]).

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5. California’s Fraud Crisis: A Microcosm of National Dysfunction

Key Points:

• California’s government has lost control of fraud; up to $425 billion lost in 5 years ([76:31]).
  • “California has become an empire of fraud. California is the fifth largest economy on earth...So how on God’s green earth is it falling apart?” (Tom, [76:31])
• COVID exposed and amplified flaws: more unemployment claims than adults in the state; unprecedented outflow of funds to fraudsters ([76:31]-[79:00]).
• Structural causes: few pay taxes, perennial deficits; neither accountability nor reform forthcoming.
  • “[If] we weren’t leaking all that money in tax, the things that we could do for infrastructure...would be incredible.” (Tom, [85:03])
• Political reaction: denial, “information laundering” accusations by Newsom; Drew and Tom lambaste both left and right for systemic rot and lack of viable solutions ([83:41]–[89:11]).
  • “I really worry that my growing hypothesis is there is a huge contingent of Americans that want to see America plundered...” (Tom, [84:08])
  • “Late stage Empire is far less enjoyable. The 90s were dope, y’all.” (Tom, [89:46])

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6. Tech Threats: Google Warns of Crypto Post-Quantum Risk

Key Points:

• Google research: quantum computers will be able to crack bitcoin and other crypto much sooner than thought (~2029, at 500,000 qubits vs. earlier 10M+ estimates) ([90:30]-[90:52]).
  • “Breaking Bitcoin’s encryption doesn’t require the 10 million qubits...Google’s new math puts it at roughly 500,000.” (Tom, [90:30])
• Urgent need for migration to “post-quantum cryptography”—decentralized nature of crypto makes coordination tricky but possible, and Tom remains bullish on long-term crypto viability ([94:05]-[95:51]).
  • “I’m not losing sleep over this one yet. I have a feeling that everybody’s incentivized to get this across the line.” (Tom, [94:40])
  • “Right now, honestly, [bitcoin] is just another tech stock.” (Tom, [96:00])

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7. The Mr. Beast Fintech Controversy

Key Points:

• Elizabeth Warren questions Mr. Beast’s purchase of a fintech aimed at children; Tom is skeptical of political motives ([97:02]-[100:09]).
  • “Politicians go wrong as often, if not more often than entrepreneurs.” (Tom, [101:30])
• Drew clarifies Beast’s intent: boost financial literacy for youth; both hosts call for strong regulation but bristle at the hostility toward entrepreneurship.

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Memorable Quotes & Moments

• “If the IRGC hangs them, drags them through the town square...all that would do is fuel the war hawks.” (Drew, [03:16])
• “We do not have the level of total supremacy over the air that we’re being told that we do.” (Tom, [14:38])
• “Your one world order is truly ending. A new world order is coming into place.” (Tom, [26:34])
• “He is trying to incentivize companies to make this stuff in the United States. That's exactly what needs to happen.” (Tom, [35:43])
• “There will be a problem of biblical proportions if you don't flatten your K shaped economy.” (Tom, [44:21])
• “California has become an empire of fraud.” (Tom, [76:31])
• “Late stage Empire is far less enjoyable. The 90s were dope, y’all.” (Tom, [89:46])
• “Breaking Bitcoin’s encryption...Google’s new math puts it at 500,000 qubits.” (Tom, [90:30])

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Timestamps of Major Segments

• Iran fighter jet downed, scenario breakdown: [00:01]–[15:11]
• Trump’s oil/foreign policy address: [15:30]–[26:00]
• Immigration & economic fallout of Iran conflict: [19:47]–[22:11]
• China’s shipping retaliation, global realignment: [54:29]–[64:15]
• US isolationism, supply chain & tariff debate: [35:08], [29:19], [44:21]
• California's fraud and US fiscal dysfunction: [76:25]–[89:46]
• Crypto & quantum threat: [90:30]–[95:51]
• Mr. Beast, fintech & politics: [97:02]–[102:43]

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Tone and Style

• Direct, candid, and skeptical: Both Tom and Drew blend hard-nosed realism with a palpable sense of frustration at political dysfunction, bureaucracy, and ideological siloing.
• Energetically analytic: Tom continually steps back for macroeconomic and civilizational analysis; Drew grounds the conversation with concrete analogies and cultural/personal references.
• Balanced but opinionated: The hosts are critical of both left and right, focused on practical outcomes, and unafraid to call out what they see as hypocrisy or mismanagement, especially on issues of fraud and public accountability.

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For Listeners Who Missed the Episode

This is a packed, highly topical episode that, while rapid-fire, offers clear explanations of complex subjects—from real-time war news, to White House economic moves, the implications of global trade disruptions, and technology’s growing power. If you’re looking for a sober, unsparing analysis that links disparate headlines into a picture of our unraveling global order and the tumult within American society, this is a must-listen—or, with this summary, a must-read.

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Transcript

[Tom Bilyeu]

Hey, sweetie. Your mother showed me this Carvana thing for selling the car. I'm gonna give it a try. Wish me luck. Me again. I put in the license plate. It gave me an offer. Unbelievable. Okay, I accepted the offer. They're picking it up Tuesday from the driveway. I haven't even left my chair. It's done. The car is gone. I'm holding a check anyway. Carvana, give it a whirl. Love ya. So good you'll want to leave a voicemail about it. Sell your car today on Carvana. Pick up. Fees may apply. You're listening to this podcast, so I know you've got a curious mind. Here's a helpful fact you might not know yet. Drivers who switch and save with Progressive save over $900 on average. Pop over to progressive.com, answer some questions and you'll get a quick quote with discounts that are easy to come by. In fact, 99% of their auto customers earn at least one discount. Visit progressive.com and see if you can enjoy a little cash back. Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates national average 12 month savings of $946 by new customers surveyed who saved with Progressive between June 202024 and May 2025. Potential savings will vary. Good morning everybody. Welcome to another episode of the Tom Bilyeu Show Live. I thought we were going to have a much more fun beginning to this, but we actually have some breaking news that an F15 Strike Eagle fighter jet was shot down over Iran and the pilot and crew are currently missing. So we'll be covering that closely here as details unfold. Trump says in other news that we're going to be out of Iran in two or three weeks regardless of the status of the Strait of Hormuz. If you guys watched his speech, that will come as no surprise. Speech maybe left a lot to be desired, at least from where I'm sitting. There's of course people that were very supportive. We'll talk more about that. Trump also wants to tariff all the drugs that you're getting from overseas. We'll see what kind of impact that has on the cost of pharmaceuticals. Trump. China is now weaponizing global shipping to punish the US for booting them out of Panama. That's going to have downstream effects. California's fraud problem is way worse than anyone expected. This is a nightmare that's going to have me crashing out, so that'll be fun to talk about. Corporations are fleeing New York City, obviously for states with better tax policies. I hope nobody's shocked by that. Google sends an Updated warning to the crypto community that quantum computing will destroy you by 2020, 2029 if you don't upgrade. And Elizabeth Warren has questions for Mr. Beast after he purchases a financial company aimed at kids. It's pretty wild. Shout out to Jimmy Donaldson. Man, that, that kid is absolutely incredible. I'm totally blown away, but I am very concerned about what's going to happen now about if, if they don't recover those two pilots. Depending on how the IRGC reacts. Like if this becomes decapitations, dragging bodies around streets.

[Drew]

Whoa.

[Tom Bilyeu]

That is going to take an already very anti this war public and make them just vehemently, aggressively. So it will be the campaign ad to end all campaign ads in the midterms.

[Drew]

I honestly think it'll have the opposite effect because I think if the IRGC hangs them, drags them through the town square, beats them, whips them, all those things, all that would do is fuel the war hawks and be like, see, we told you Iran was a threat. Let's go bomb the crap out of him, let's declare war. But I think if Iran uses it as a strategic piece, kind of like the John McCain of it all of, hey, we have your guy. Maybe you're ready to actually sit down for a ceasefire and we can actually like figure something out.

[Tom Bilyeu]

But that would work to their advantage if they are like, listen, you guys, the barbarians. I don't know what you've been telling your people. These are prisoners of war. They will be treated with respect, the kind of respect that you have not shown our people. That would be an amazing strategic move on their part. We'll see how that plays out. But I do think that if something horrible were to befall them and they do get paraded around, that that would be. There will be people that say what you're saying, to be sure. But there's no, I don't think there's any universe in which that becomes the thing that grabs the public. I think the thing that will grab the public is the straight informed moves was open before you arrived. You said that you had already defeated their nuclear sites. And so us going back for destroying the nuclear site, it doesn't make any sense. You've said, you know, we've been doing this from the air. We have complete error, not superiority, supremacy, that we can do whatever we want. That was clearly a lie. So lie after lie after lie, you're now putting our boys in harm's way. Look at these horrifying images. So yeah, man, on this one, I am very curious. This will Tell me a lot about the strategy that Iran is going to deploy. Whether there speaking to their people and showing, like, their power and this is what we can do, or if they want to take the road that the Chinese are taking, which is America's unhinged. They're telling you a story about what we're like, but we're completely diplomatic. We're the calm people that you can rely on in difficult times. Trying to get, like, the Canadians are turning more towards the Chinese. I think you're going to see that with Europe. So the Iranians have a shot here. To be like, this has all been fabrications, a bunch of lies from the Israel and US Coalition has nothing to do with the reality on the ground here in Iran. We're totally above board. The way that you guys have been treating us for years, acting like we're unhinged terrorists, which is absolutely crazy. Yeah, this is going to be a very interesting moment. Very interesting.

[Drew]

I know we're really critical of the war and Trump and we talk, you know, politics, left side, right side, all those things. But this is a sober, sobering reality of what war actually is. These are human beings putting their life on the line. And I commend all of our service members for even signing up to be in the thick of things.

[Tom Bilyeu]

So, no doubt. And, yeah, first of all, shout out to anybody that is serving in the armed services here in the US you have my utmost respect, always and forever. I don't care whether people agree or disagree with what any administration is doing. The people, as Drew was saying, they put their lives on the line to protect all of us. Uh, yeah, the. The end. The. My gratitude knows no ends, that is for sure. So shout out to all the families that are dealing with the uncertainty of having somebody in harm's way. Um, so hopefully they are recovered and everything ends up being fine. But this is a pretty tense situation as we wait and see what exactly unfolds. Now, for people that don't know the details, let's get into all the specifics here. So Iran is claiming that the IRGC shot down an American jet. They initially claimed that the aircraft was an F35, which is our super stealthy fighter jet, which was. We had one of them damaged earlier. It was a big win. Claimed on behalf of Iran that they were able to hit it, but it was able to land safely. But what they've hit this time, based on the images from the crash site, clearly show debris belonging to an F15 Strike Eagle, which, if you're looking at your screen, we've pulled up an image of Iran. Iranian state media has published pictures and videos purportedly showing parts of the downplane and one of the ejection seats. All of that is consistent with this having been an F15E fighter jet. Axios has confirmed that Iran has indeed shot down the F15 and that there's a search and rescue effort that's underway now. The rescue operation is being labeled as active, but very unresolved. There are claims that the US that their attempt to rescue the crew has actually already failed, that American forces were conducting the search for hours using Blackhawk helicopters, a C130 aircraft, that one of the helicopters involved in the rescue effort was reportedly attacked by air defense near the border of the scene, and they ended up fleeing. So a lot of this is calling into question just how much supremacy we have. There's been a debate for a long time where the IRGC was claiming, bro, like you, you have hardly begun to touch our reserves. We have so much hidden in all these massive tunnels. But the message coming out from the US Being like, no, no, no, we've severely degraded it. We've blown a ton of the tunnels closed. So, yes, there's things inside of the tunnels that we can't get to, but they're not able to pull this stuff in and out as easily as they once were. We've just been degrading, degrading, degrading. So this certainly calls that into question. Now, there's unverified footage that suggests that the combat search and rescue operation may be support. These F35 jets, these are the ones that are super Stealthy. And an MQ9 Reaper drone, or series of drones. The C130, as we were saying, was also reportedly flying very low over Iran, deploying flares. Tasnim is claiming that based on unnamed sources, that Iranian security forces have taken a US pilot into custody, that at least one. There's two that were in the jet. So one of them, again, unconfirmed at this point. Fog of war in the extreme. We will have to see what this ends up being in reality. But those. There are unconfirmed reports that at least one of them has already been taken into custody. Iranian television is reportedly broadcasting a message offering a reward for anyone who captures the other pilot alive. Iran's messaging at this point is contradictory, but you can expect that. I'm sure they're not entirely sure exactly what's going on. But the IRGC has specifically identified the downed aircraft as an F35, which isn't true. Again, we already talked about that the physical wreckage is showing that this was an F15E. It also remains possible that images of the wreckage have been manipulated. So a lot of question marks, very few answers at this point. There are two separate claimed locations for where this happened, the Strait of Hormuz and central Iran. So it's unclear whether these refer to the same aircraft or they're separate incidences. Unclear, unclear right now. As of now, the Pentagon has not made any official statement regarding the IRGC's claim, and Centcom has not commented on the photos or debris at the time that we're reporting on this. Given the ongoing operations to rescue, the pilot's official confirmation or denial is probably largely being withheld just to try to make sure that we get on the other side of this so we don't give away any information that we don't need to. So at this point, you can just assume this is a credible claim that a US fighter has been shot down over Iranian territory. And it's really the first one since the war began because the other one that was hit managed to get outside and land safely. So we'll see how all of this plays out. But as we said at the top, obviously we are hoping that this goes well for the American pilots, that they are rescued safely and returned back to base. But we're going to have to face a very uncomfortable truth that we do not have the level of total supremacy over the era that we're being told that we do. And that's going to change the way that we move forward, that's for sure. Quick break, but don't go anywhere. There's more to come. After this short break from our sponsors, Let's talk about a problem that is hiding in plain sight. You're using AI for everything now. You better be. 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[Drew]

We'll definitely keep monitoring the situation, see what progresses. But again, thoughts and prayers for those downed pilots and we hope we get them safe return back home.

[Tom Bilyeu]

No doubt. Ryan, if you would keep an eye on chat for anybody that surfaces. Anything as we go. And yeah, if anything new happens while we are live, we will certainly get to that.

[Drew]

Yeah. Let's go to the broader update of the War itself. Trump did a announcement yesterday.

[Tom Bilyeu]

I guess that it wasn't yesterday. Right. It was the day before.

[Drew]

Oh, day before, yeah. So Wednesday night. So it's one of those things where he gave us an update, but I think all those who were online kind of knew everything he was saying.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Yeah. If you're chronically online, the address was not very interesting, but Trump did address the nation on Wednesday night and basically said, we're out in a couple weeks whether the strait is open or not. So if you need oil, go and get it yourself. I'm always trapped when Trump talks of being torn between, well, it's good TV and God damn, this is why I do not like living in a populist moment. Man, do I miss the days of presidents that seem presidential. Trump said American forces will hit Iran extremely hard over the next two or three weeks. And Lord help us all if there are people in captive captivity. And Trump does not believe that negotiations are going well, he's going to go ham. So everybody brace yourselves for that. Trump said that, you know, that we just need a couple more weeks to wrap up our, our objectives. He reminded everybody that regime change is not the name of the game and that opening this straight is no longer the name of the game. Let us all remain completely sober. I've said this a gazillion times, but I remind myself that I was completely surprised that he went back in because I was not expecting that. I was told that we had destroyed the nuclear capabilities and all of a sudden we were building up again. I tried to stay completely sober about that.

[Drew]

The website still up to. We have completely obliterated their nuclear facility. June 2025.

[Tom Bilyeu]

So we are being gaslit right now about that. He said very clearly in the beginning that that was like part of the negotiating. The reason we're going to hit them so hard was we needed to open the straight. I said a while ago, at some point we should probably pull this clip. I think he'll leave even if it's in chaos and he'll just be like, peace out. And so that's where we're at. It looks like he will indeed leave peace out. Even if the strait is in total chaos. The stated objectives are destroy their military, ensure that they're not going to be able to build back their long range weapons, their nuclear weapons. And this is a very close paraphrase, if not an exact quote. Blow them back to the stone Age where they belong if they don't negotiate. Okay, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and assume that he means the IRGC and not the Iranian people. But God damn, if we actually do start destroying all of their civilian infrastructure, which they've already started blowing up bridges, saying that they were being used, and they probably were being used, but for military purposes. But nonetheless, when you start blowing up the civilian infrastructure, you really are going to set the country back. This goes back to my initial thing. How many people in Iran support the irgc? If it's a lot, then yes. If you're going to see through your mission of weakening the regime, even if you don't care if there's full regime change, then you're going to end up hitting a lot of the civilian infrastructure. But, man, if we walk out having blown up their civilian infrastructure and their oil, yo. I will say this. There will be second and third order consequences that will be extraordinary. They could be. They will almost certainly include humanitarian disaster inside of Iran. It will also almost certainly further cement America's legacy as a global problem. So that's where you start getting into the Dave Smith comment that. What did he say? Americans are a bigger terrorist? He say we're the biggest terrorists in the world? He said something about Americans being terrorists. We'll have to look at it. I was starting down the path of researching Dave. He had to reschedule, but hopefully we will get him on the show soon. I will spend a lot of time with that notion, but, ooh, buddy, there are going to be a lot more voices saying that if we just completely leave it in smoking ruins and then also leave them with the ability to choke off 20% of the world's supply. So there will be second and third order consequences.

[Drew]

All right, I want to talk about those consequences because it was interesting. George Galloway sat down with Sneako and he brought that up because he was saying in the Iraq war that we were there for 20 years.

[Tom Bilyeu]

You say George Galloway.

[Drew]

George Galloway.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Who's George Galloway?

[Drew]

The British dude. Don't know who wears the bug hat. It was a good. It was a good interview. Long story short, from the 20 year war that we just got out of, it sent a whole bunch of migrants, Pakistanis, Afghans, away from their homes. Where did those people go? They ended up going to Europe, causing the crisis that we're now struggling with now. So half of Lebanon is being exiled right now in the chase of Hezbollah. If Iran is really in shambles, people are going to leave Iran trying to look for a better life. Where are those people gonna go? And then there's gonna be a new administration that comes in because I don't think Trump is gonna last after this. If it goes really south, then the next four years, it's, oh, my gosh, there's bleeding people over there. We should take them in. And then now we have this immigration crisis happening all over again. So I think it's easy to. We think about the beginning where, yeah, we're just going in there, stop their nuclear program, and then brick and dominoes fall. Then now we have 750,000 people who have to leave the Middle east and go somewhere. And that's going to destabilize some countries, some community around the world, wherever they end up.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Yeah, that's a very interesting thing. And we can certainly get into the why the immigration crisis is reaching the levels that it is, especially in Europe. I think that that has to do with both the destabilization that sends people looking for something else, but also the suicidal empathy policies that we see just absolutely flying around the world. But you're starting to see a ton of pushback. So I think that things would play out very differently on an immigration front this time. So we'll see it. It will come down to the level of the humanitarian disaster if there is one that is left in its wake. But, man, that you're just not going to get out from a. There will be a knock on effect. There's no way to escape that. So that could get terrible very, very fast. All right. The oil markets did not love the message that Trump gave. And at the time of this recording, anyway, the price of oil is hovering around $110 a barrel, and that's for both Brent and WTI. Now, Trump was blunt. The US imports almost no oil through Hormuz and plans to keep it that way. So for every nation watching gas prices spiral, while Iran maintains its stranglehold on one fifth of the world's oil supply, Trump offered up three options. Option number one, if you need oil, buy it from the U.S. america is energy independent and ready to sell to all of you beautiful people out there. Two, if you want your oil lane back, go take it. The implication by force. Trump told US allies they should, quote, build up some delayed courage and go to the strait themselves. Go take it, protect it, use it for yourself, he said. Iran has been essentially decimated. Little harder to see that in the wake of the jet getting shot down. The hard part is done, so it should be easy. Third option, if you don't like options one and two, just wait. Trump's position is that the strait will open up naturally, eventually, and he's probably right. About that. Oil prices do tend to come down. So we've had conflicts in the region before, including the revolution in 1979, and that was very anti America. And the strait still opened again and oil prices came back down. That's what they do. But the part that I think people are going to struggle with is, yes, America may be energy independent, but the price of oil is set internationally. So you have a product, whether it's made by us and typically stays here, the price will go up because other countries will bid and say, yo, I'll buy that oil at this elevated price. So then the companies are gonna be like, well, that's the price, bro. So even if you want it here at the gas pump, you're not gonna get any shortages. But the prices are going to go up. So let's not be delusional about that. They'll try to gaslight, they'll try to spin, they'll try to be like, but, hey, we don't need any of that oil. Um, but if the price is going up, it's certainly going to feel like we are somehow some way involved in all of this. So don't lose sight of that now. Nonetheless, Trump has set the stage with that talk for the US Exit from the region. Now, the only thing that lingers in my mind is that Pete Hegseth has fired three generals recently, and that seems like a weird move if you plan to be out of the region in a couple of weeks and everything is going perfectly. Now, in full disclosure, I have no idea why the generals were actually forced out, but one possible solution is that Trump wants to do the same kind of limited ground incursion. Not the same kind, but he wants to do some kind of limited ground incursion to get the nuclear material as one possible option. Kirk island would be another possible option. And the idea that he's going to send in a ground force to dig up the nuclear material, build a quick Runway, and then fly that stuff out of there is a rumor that just keeps popping up. Now, I have my tinfoil hat firmly in place right now, but Trump has addressed this, that specific thing in his speech saying that, nope, we're just watching it via satellites.

[Drew]

All good.

[Tom Bilyeu]

So this could be total bs, but, man, it is a rumor that just will not go away. And given how many troops we've started moving towards the region and the fact that they're firing generals right now at a time where supposedly everything is going perfectly and we're about to withdraw, there's just something weird there. Something isn't Quite adding up. It's possible it's just Trump keeping his options open. It's possible that these have been long term issues that they've wanted to deal with. And since things are going so well, we might as well do it right now. I don't know, but I am certainly gonna be watching that closely. And I of course do not believe anything that I'm being told. A lot of being told right now and please never lose sight of this is basically the information is a weapon of its own. So we should just assume that much of what we're being told, we're being told strategic lies to confuse the enemy. So how all of this stuff plays out is right now anybody's guess. But there are certainly a lot of moving pieces.

[Drew]

We shall see. And in continuing news, it seems that the Iran. Iran has done two things. I think they're being very strategic. So it's interesting. They have both offered the EU an agreement for transit through the Strait of Hermuz. This has been rumored. Nothing has officially been signed or anything like that. But yesterday the EU and 41 other nations, EU with a couple other nations, Japan included, did get together in conference. US was not in attendance and they were talking about ways to open the strait.

[Tom Bilyeu]

So get ready for more of that. When the guy says like, if you want to go get it, you're not going to invite him to the talk, it's like, okay, well, yes, like we, these countries cannot afford to not have this energy. Like, that's not an option. Them, if like a really dire scenario happened, these guys would militarily have to go in and reopen it. Like the option of, well, I guess we just go without is not an option. Military, yes. No. Energy, no. Now, I think they would be extremely reticent to do so. I think that they would do all kinds of negotiations and concessions first. But man, this, this is what it looks like when the world like reorganizes. Your one world order is truly ending. A new world order is coming into place. And I think when we all think about like, oh, one world order ends, the next begins. You don't really think about. The reason that it falls apart is for these moments of like hyper conflict where things clash, people have interests, they've got to move, they start finding new allies. It's not like everybody just goes, okay, cool, turn to chapter four. And this is why you're gonna go connect with all these different people. It's a thing happens. Somebody does something, other people react. Butterfly effect. And all of a sudden you've cozying up to China. And so that's ultimately how all of this is going to play out, is it's going to be conflict based, it's going to be everybody protecting their own interests, and suddenly the illusion of like, well, we're all holding hands, we're all in this together, it just disappears because people have to have energy to stay in power. Our modern world is predicated on a small handful of things, and oil is one of the biggest.

[Drew]

I think we do have to kind of highlight the accountability piece of it all, though, because while the world order was going to change, I remember Peter Zihan, if you guys haven't watched that interview, he really broke that down. So this was gonna happen. But we cannot act like Trump didn't exacerbate it. He started a economic trade war with the entire world. And then on the other side was like, hey, guys, I need help, like, opening the straight up.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Yep.

[Drew]

So if maybe he would have led with honey, he would have caught a couple more bees in this scenario. So with the EU now saying, okay, we're going to go behind him and do our own thing, does that have blowback for America? Can we be isolationist? I know we got the whole Western hemisphere. Will we just be like China now? And we'll just rerun everything from here? And we don't cross boundaries, we only do humanitarian aid to certain places and we kind of shrink back into our domain.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Yes, we are big enough that we can be isolationists, but it would be a terrible move and we will suffer grave consequences for doing it. You can't overnight become isolationists and think everything is going to be fine. But in terms of the countries on the planet that would be able to do very well with a more isolationist policy, we are one of them. So we can be food independent, we can be energy independent, we can work towards that. Again, not going to happen overnight. And they're going to be rough days ahead if we just snap our fingers and expect to act in that way. But we also have things that a lot of countries want and people will do whatever's in their best interest. So there's no doubt that geographically, America's in a good spot. Resource wise, America is in a good spot. But there are key vulnerabilities that we have right now. Rare earth processing is a big one, so we can build towards that, but you're not going to be able to do it by Tuesday. So you've got the chip manufacturing that we need, we've got the energy needs to keep up with China in Terms of the AI race that we're going to have to address you right now. Your pharmaceuticals come a lot from China. There's a ton of things that we still rely on China for. So you would have to find your way to shoring all of those up. But yes, from an isolationist perspective, if it's done well over time and you can buy yourself five or 10 years, you'd be in a good place. But man, that won't be without consequences. And I don't think so. Globalism was these huge trade offs, but they were trade offs, meaning you were getting something for it. You weren't just giving things up, but you hollowed out the middle class to do globalization because basically to speed run this, there is a certain type of person that's going to only be able to hold down a certain type of job. And when you have middle class working class jobs, factories where somebody isn't sitting at a desk trying to do intellectual work, but instead they are working with their hands, they are doing a trade like they thrive at that. They're able to do well, they're able to make a living. But when you optimize for every nation goes and does what they do best, everybody gets to specialize, then that inevitably goes to some countries but not others. And so everybody basically outsourced their manufacturing or huge swaths of it to China. And that meant that we just couldn't make things here ourselves, which is already a problem from a supply chain perspective. But it also meant that you had a huge base of workers that now couldn't find jobs full stop. And then third, you're in a position where you weaken the, the negotiating power of everybody because you can just go, oh cool, you don't want to do that. No worries. We've got trade arrangements with so many countries. We've got these people for labor, these people for, you know, think about how much white collar work was outsourced to the Philippines as one example, or to India. And so that just weakened everybody's negotiating abilities. And so wages stagnate, but you're in an inflationary environment. We can fractal there very, very hard. And so now you're in this position where as you re industrialize, you're making the trade off in the opposite direction. So things aren't going to be as cheap, but you're going to control your supply chains. You're going to be able to put some power back in the hands of workers. Now AI and robotics complicate some of this, but hopefully you can understand from a macro perspective that when you make the opposite trade you still get something back but you're giving something up. So regardless of which direction we go there, it's not a utopia, it's do you want everything to be cheap but you're getting this increasingly K shaped economy or do you want to force the K shape back towards the middle? But things are going to be harder, things are going to be more expensive, but you can really start building back your middle class. So I think everybody knows my position better to build back the middle class. And right now because you're in a Thucydides trap cold war with China, you've got to get your manufacturing base back up. Just non negotiable. Quick break but don't go anywhere. There's more to come after this short break from our sponsors. Let's talk about gold. Gold is the right asset these days, but most people are using it wrong. They buy it, hold it and then wait for the price to go up. But that price is still denominated in dollars. So you haven't actually escaped the system. You're still playing by its rules. That's the shift monetary metals helps make possible. They've built a way for your gold to earn yield paid not in dollars but in more physical gold up to 4% per year, more ounces compounding in hard money every single month you're growing the quantity of the hardest asset on earth and storage and insurance are included so there's no hidden fees that are going to eat away at your yield. Most people are passively absorbing inflation. This is exactly how you actively compound your weight. Out of that, click the link in the show notes or visit monetary-metals.comimpact to learn more. Again, that's monetary-metals.comimpact this is a paid advertisement. Bad day. Watch this. Tick Tock is full of funny pets and heart melting moments. Laugh more, stress less and share your own furry star. Download TikTok now. All right, thanks for sticking with us. Let's jump right back in.

[Drew]

Well one way that Trump is trying to do it is he is back on his tariff wave. He was like you know what, Epstein got a little hot, let's start this war. War got a little hot. Let's go back to the, let's go back to the classic hits. Let's go back to tariffs. So 100% tariffs on foreign made pharmaceuticals in an effort to bring the pharmaceutical industry back to the U.S. now this is on the eve of a he had Trump RX that he launched. So I, I give respect to Trump because he's at least shooting his shot. He's trying to do different things.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Yeah.

[Drew]

What's your take on this 100% tariff on pharmaceuticals?

[Tom Bilyeu]

Yeah. So Trump just signed an executive order imposing 100% tariff on patented pharmaceuticals manufactured outside of the United States. He almost certainly had to do something like this. We've got to get pharmaceuticals back in the U.S. but right now, 53% of all patented drugs distributed in the U.S. are actually made overseas, and only 15% of the active pharmaceutical ingredients for those drugs are produced domestically. Now, America invented most of these drugs, but under the rubric of globalism, we stopped making them. The tariffs are scheduled to kick in in 120 days for large companies and 180 days for smaller ones. There are off ramps. Companies that commit to building US manufacturing facilities get a reduced 20% rate, but that climbs back to 100% in four years. If you sign a most favored nation pricing deal with HHS and break ground on a US Plant, you pay zero. Now, that tells you exactly what he's trying to do. He is trying to incentivize companies to make this stuff in the United States. That's exactly what needs to happen. I get people hate that it's coming from Trump. I get that people hate that he's using tariffs to do it. I understand. Heard, but this has to happen. You've got to bring this stuff back. You for anybody that is enraged right now, I'm telling you, you're not taking China seriously enough. This is part of why I don't love the distraction of going into Iran. I've said this before. I will say it many times again. Iran is a play to be on Mount Rushmore. If he could, I think it's probably too late to do it in a way that will be remembered fondly. If he was able to have done this in a way where you open the Strait of Hormuz, you get regime change. The regime is pro. It doesn't have to be pro the US it just needs to be pro markets. It needs to be economically logical and make things good for their people and really re enter the global economy. If he had been able to get that, even if it was Venezuela style, where it's like, yep, it's more or less the same people, just way less dogmatic. If we'd been able to get that, then I think the Iran thing could have played out well. But instead, I think it's become a distraction from what we really need to be focused on, which is China. Now, there's very much an aggressive China play in what's going on in Iran. So from that perspective, I get it. But, man, everybody in the sort of public consciousness is just all caught up in, like, Iran is the thing in front of us. And I know if I start headlining things around China, nobody's going to pay attention. And so that reality of the way the human mind works is very distressing. And I wanted desperately to take the bait that Drew fed me with the Epstein connection because there was something so dark about what that says about human nature. But I stayed on task, boys and girls. And that's the very thing that all of us have to do is remember what's really going on here. Your real problem is not with Iran. Your real problem is with China. China has way more influence in the world. China controls. There are probably two dozen Straits of Hormuz that like things that China could choke us out on. Pharmaceuticals is one of them. So you've got to bring these back. Unless you want to lose access to Eurozempic, you're gonna need to start making this stuff here. And when you get to the nitty gritty of things like diabetes drugs and things like that, man, you cannot have these controlled by an adversary. So we've gotta be way, way more careful. Now, getting back to the very specifics of these tariffs, generic drugs are exempt for now. The administration is saying that it will reassess that specifically in a year. Now, the question that I expect all of you guys to be asking is, what on earth is going to happen to the cost of my drugs? Well, Yale's budget lab projected that even a 25% tariff would cost the average American household roughly $600 a year and higher drug costs. And these tariffs are four times that rate. So it wouldn't be good for any drug that doesn't sign the most favored nations deal and break ground on a U.S. facility. And that is what Trump is pushing people to do. And that, quite frankly, is what they should do. We've got to get this stuff back on American soil. And this is a trade off. So unless you guys are like, no, I love it the most that we have a K shaped economy, I love that. Let's go more globalists. If that's your argument, I'm happy to have that discussion. But the reality is, if you want to start bringing this stuff back, get a middle class here, you've got to give up on some of the benefits of globalism and start bringing it back. Now. One pharma CEO warned that taxes on cutting edge medicines are going to increase costs and could jeopardize billions in U.S. investments. The White House, however, said for its part, prices are going to go down. And a third opinion coming from a senior official is that the move just isn't going to impact affordability at all. Now, one of these three is wrong. So sorry, two of the three are actually wrong. Only one of the three is going to be right. So which of them? We're going to see how this plays out. Now, more than a dozen major drug makers, including Pfizer, Eli Lilly and Novo Norda Nordisk have already inked pricing deals to avoid the tariffs. So yay. Expect a wave of announcements like that from the holdouts in the coming weeks. Now, given how much of the world's pharmaceuticals come from China, you can't ignore this. You just cannot rely on our relationship with China right now remaining stable in the coming years. And you don't want them to be able to choke you out Hormuz style with pharmaceuticals or rare earth metals, magnets, et cetera. So we've got to make sure that we are preparing for an escalating problem with China, because if we leave ourselves in a situation where they can cut us off from things that we are absolutely reliant upon, we are going to be in a way worse position than we are with the things that Iran can cause disruption on. Obviously, barring a nuclear weapon, which would be even worse than pharmaceuticals.

[Drew]

All right, there's a couple things there. Fun fact about me, my first job was at Bristol Myers Squibb out of college, was at Bristol Myers Squibb back in my, like, biomedical engineering days. And I always found it interesting that we would research R and D a drug locally in America, then we would go to Singapore and the Philippines. But we had like six other like, facilities across the world to do the first round of clinical trials, second round, three. Like, it'll go back and forth on that supply chain. Then once it actually gets good, then we'll bring it back to the US for the final clinical trial and then bring it back to. Yeah, so it's like we're doing most of the things here. We have the infrastructure here. Is this a econ supply demand thing where Trump is just saying, hey, if you do the same process, just cut out the middlemans and bring it here, it will be cheaper for you. And would the.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Well, he's saying it's only going to be cheaper because I'm going to raise prices on you first. It is clearly cheaper to send it overseas where there's going to be looser regulations, there's Going to be lower quality of life or lower cost of life for sure. And so you'll be able to get employees that are ecstatic to be paid what you're paying. But for them it's like, whoa, these are incredible wages. And then the government starts optimizing around that. And so you can think of it as like industrial tourism. So it's like we want to be the place that you come to do this kind of manufacturing. This is exactly how China pulled 400 million people out of poverty was they were like, well, we're a dictatorship. I'm less and less comfortable calling China currently a communist nation. I know they call themselves that, but it's more just a dictatorship. So I can force everybody to do what I want. And so I'm gonna force you guys all to get good at manufacturing. And that's going to be our thing. And if I've got to put up nets around Foxconn because so many of you are committing suicide, whatever, that's what we're going to do. And we're not going to change the regulation. So get, get back to work. And that ended up being really beneficial for everybody that has an iPhone.

[Drew]

Like, yo, is this a proper incentive though? Let me rephrase.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Oh, God. Are we in ought now?

[Drew]

Yes. Oh, because give me the is on this though, with him putting terrorists off, is this the incentive that pharmaceutical companies will say, hey, you increase this. Let me just bring it back home to America.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Yeah. So that the is of it all. That's what he's doing. I'm going to make it expensive now for you to go away. I'm removing your ability to make that trade off off so that I can. Yes, it's probably going to get more expensive here at home, but you're going to make more money. You're going to have more power. The average person is going to put more money in their pocket. So from an affordability standpoint, not. Not that drugs won't go up, but on mass five years from now, from an affordability standpoint, you're going to be in a better spot. And that is you have to do that. Okay. If you want to mentally map Tom and understand why Tom is saying you must do this, you do not have a choice. There are two reasons. Reasons you can get choked out by China or you will get choked out by the working class. But dude, it will be a problem of biblical proportions if you don't flatten your K shaped economy. And so I'm just like anything that makes us stronger against China and anything that makes us able to actually take care of our citizens like we should be. And we're going to get to fraud in a minute. I'm for like, you're gonna have to do hard things. We're gonna have to do hard things. And I worry that people map this as but bro, like this isn't better. It's not cheap yet. Fucking I get it. But like God damn, are you just gonna cheap your fucking way into America tearing itself apart, killing itself or us getting choked out by China, China becoming the dominant global power and us getting slapped around like a bitch. Like we slap around other countries. Like fuck that. Like you can be as mad as you want about America. I'm never going to root for my own decline. Get the out of my country. Like you must be joking. So that to me is patent.

[Drew]

I'm trying to understand. So help, help me for the, for the short bus people. Right. In order to flatten the K shape economy. And a refresher on that, that's the haves at the top, the have nots at the bottom.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Correct.

[Drew]

And the haves, I'm saying asset owners, have nots, non asset owners.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Thank you. Right now, to be on the top of the K, you have to own a substantial amount of assets. To be on the bottom of the K, you just have to be Everybody else. So 10% own 93% of the assets. Now we can, we can and should do more things like the Trump savings account. I forget the they're calling them for the kids. That is dope. And so now it's just like being born is now putting you on the asset ladder. Fantastic. I love that, that. But you, you still have everybody else that was born more than a year ago. And so they've all got to deal with the fact that they're not on the property or they're not on the asset ladder. And so now we've got to find a way to shrink that gap. So that's going to be. Workers have to have more power to negotiate their salaries. That means that jobs can't just bleed to everywhere else. The first sign that you're not going to be able to get what you want here. And so that is a big part of this.

[Drew]

Okay. Because you said earlier, you said things will go up, but that's going to help your affordable. You can't cheap your way out. That's going to help affordability. So I'm just trying to correct.

[Tom Bilyeu]

So think of affordability as the difference between how much you make and what things cost. It's not Just what things cost. So I think everybody understands that my mental model will only work if you stop deficit spending. Let's be very clear about that. That's running in the background. It's just not the part of this I'm talking about right now.

[Drew]

So even with Trump accounts, it that. Because that's deficit spending?

[Tom Bilyeu]

Technically, yes. So, okay, with.

[Drew]

With the Trump account, transparent.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Okay. If you really want to get nasty, let's say Drew. God, this is so hideous. I really hate everything I'm about to say. Okay, right now, 10% of the country bleeds, 90% of the country dry. Over time, what we could do is say we're going to reduce that number and 20%, then 30%, then 40% are going to bleed. The 70, 60, you know, whatever percent of the country dry. But as long as your deficit spending, you're stealing from somebody to give to somebody else, from where I'm sitting, that is immoral and you should stop doing it, Cap. But given that we are currently immoral and doing that, the Trump accounts are better because now at least being born puts you on the right path. And there are going to be some kids. Most won't, but there'll be some kids that actually pay attention. And if we do a good job, we will mark to them, hey, you were given a thousand dollars when you were born. You're now 14, and that thousand dollars is now worth $3,000. And it's like, whoa, hold on a second. That's cool. Why is that so? And you start teaching them to, like, actually put a class in school about how this works and yada, yada. And so, yes, then you want to inflate the world and you want to steal from all the dumb Americans that refuse to buy assets because they were not smart enough to be born in 2026. And you punish all the dumb people around the world that weren't smart enough to get out from under the dollar, and you steal from all of them to give to American children. That's the ugly version of what you're doing. It's true, it's accurate. It just puts a moral spin on it.

[Drew]

Hey, I feel like the kids can steal a little bit because, you know, the boomers are taking everybody else's money with Social Security.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Well, here's the really good news. The kids wouldn't be stealing. They would just be. We would be stealing on their behalf and giving to them, which is better. That's so much better, right?

[Drew]

Gotta invest like this.

[Tom Bilyeu]

This is Shout Out. I think it's Brad Gerstner. Who was a big proponent of pushing this forward, Michael dell, who's given $6 billion. Dude, I love these guys for this. They're saying, okay, like we're just going to keep running this stupid fucking game where we're inflating everybody to high hell. We're deficit spending, we're funding fraud, we are actively funding fraud. Cool. You guys are going to do that. Great. The only way for me to help the kids, building them a library like the Carnegie's did, does not make any fucking sense. But doing this, giving them an account, so now the more you guys go plunder the world, at least they're going to benefit from it. But it is so dark that it just makes me very sad. But at least, hey, we're doing something.

[Drew]

Yeah. So now let's go to the art of it. And then last thing, we can wrap this up because I want to go to China next.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Go to the what of it?

[Drew]

The ought of it. What is the proper way to incentivize globalism in a. To disincentivize globalism in a way that can actually bring manufacturing home? Build up middle class wages. What should be the policies? If you made magic wand, Trump made you economic czar for a day and you can enact three executive orders, what would be the kind of the, you know.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Well, if I'm economic czar, unfortunately the thing that I'm going to do is not necessarily about bringing manufacturing back home because that wouldn't be as effective as I would stop deficit spending. That would be the first.

[Drew]

But I would.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Yeah, I know, but you made me like if I'm the guy. Okay, so the, you need carrot and stick. And so tariffs are so far the only stick that we have seen that is effective. And the reason that that stick is effective is I, trust me, I'm hyper aware that people that don't understand tariffs think that the US consumer pays 100 of that. They absolutely do not. And that is a cost that will be shared in some varying degree and it will be different from item to item. But that is a tax that is shared by the exporter, the importer and the end purchaser. And so part of the reason that they can be so effective is that it's a tax that's spread across multiple parties. So you need that. The question becomes what's going to be the carrot. And so right now we're sort of heavy stick, very light carrot. The carrot is basically, you won't be choked out by China. Now one part of all of this that really gets lost in the sauce. And this, I fear, falls into fantasyland Bucket. But I'm gonna say it, because this is on my mind a lot right now. Americans, you've gotta find a way to love your country. And right now, if we could get people to really love America, to say, here are the values that we all share and we're gonna do our part to actually get things moving in the right direction, then you could get companies that, because they love America and because they want to see Americans do well, that they're gonna manufacture in America, that people are gonna buy because it's made in America and just out of sheer love for this country. And we've seen this many, many, many times in our past. I get it. I know what the arguments are going to be. There's going to be a huge contingent of people that believe America's completely lost its soul. There's a contingent of America that believes that America just is, was, and always will be founded on an evil premise, and therefore, it just needs to be stripped down bare and plundered. So I get it. I'm aware of the argument. I just think they are universally terrible and they will lead to horrific outcomes for the very people that want to see America torn down and plundered. So I'll get off the soapbox immediately because this is one that's going to take the time to convince people of. But that really is a big part of this. So I would love to see companies do that, you know, and that's me talking to myself as much as anybody else. Listen, we use people overseas for some of our roles and just is what it is. This all started during COVID when it was like, well, maybe we're not ever going to work out of an office again, so what does it really matter? And before I started going down this path. So, yeah, I mean, I will stare nakedly at my own advice, but that is part of this picture, to be sure.

[Drew]

Man. And while all this is brewing, remember the Panama Canal? That was the first fight that Trump picked, and I feel like we thought we came out victorious on top. Now, there's a bit of legal disputes happening right now where a Hong Kong flagged vessel for Panama was just stopped or detained. There's been some rosy, rosy language around it. Break down this Panama situation because there is another trade war brewing.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Yeah. So Trump is just. Or, sorry, China has just weaponized global shipping to punish the US Partly because of what Trump was doing back in the Panama Canal. Trump wanted China out and he got it. And now China is making the whole World pay for it. For nearly 30 years, Hong Kong based conglomerate CK Hutchison, which with deep ties to Beijing, I might add, controlled the two ports that flank both ends of the Panama Canal. You've got Balboa on the Pacific side, you've got Crystal Ball on the Atlantic, and together they handle about 40% of all the Panama Canal traffic. And the positioning gave China a chokehold on the Western hemisphere's most critical shipping lane. Now, I hope that this idea of getting control of shipping lanes is starting to sound very familiar. All of this stuff works in the globalized world, which has trade offs and it doesn't work. As we begin to fragment once again, start getting into spheres of influence, start thinking of China first, America first, Japan first, English first, yada yada, yada. So brace yourselves for more of this. When Trump came into office, he made kicking China out of those ports priority. And it was a good idea. By January of 2026, Panama's Supreme Court obliged, invalidating C.K. hutchinson's entire agreement with the Panamanian government. Panama handled, handed interim control over to Maersk and msc, which are US aligned firms. Massive, massive on the global shipping industry. And since March 8, Chinese port authorities have detained nearly 70 Panama flagged vessels. Now, they're not doing it because they actually think there are violations. They're doing it because Panama is the world's largest ship registry. A lot of foreign countries use the Panama flag. So even though China is going after the US quite frankly, but they're going via Panama to try and punish them. 15% of the global tonnage carries a Panamanian flag. And so detaining Panama flag ships is how you strangle global trade. If you're trying to be more elegant than Iran. So Iran just blows shit up is like, nope, sorry, you're not coming through here. We're blowing up your boats. And look, look at the pretty boats burning out in the water. China, they do it all with class. They do it without needing to fire a shot. They pull you aside. May I see your papers, sir? They hold you for days, weeks or months. Find a validation violation, maybe, maybe not. They let you go eventually, but they cause just enough bureaucratic nightmare that everything gets more costly and time consuming. The US Federal Maritime Commission called it out directly. They said these detentions are being carried out under informal directives and are far exceeding historical norms. So sure, of course, that's exactly how you use a legitimate inspection as a weapon. So this is one where man always look honestly at your adversaries and when they're doing something awesome, don't be afraid to deny it now. I hate this. I don't like that they're doing it. But it's smooth and it's a great way to cause friction, to make sure that people understand what level of control that you have and you play whatever leverage you've got. That, and this is what it looks like when the global world order breaks down. It was never going to be easy to undo. Klaus Schwab's utopia just wasn't. China has summoned, summoned executives from Maersk and msc, the two firms that are running the canal ports, brought them into Beijing. They're having high level discussions so that they can see just how much control they can wrestle back there. There was no way that the Chinese were just going to sit on their hands as Trump manhandled them. Not possible. Possible. Okay. Trump's moves in Panama, Venezuela, now Iran. China was never just going to sit back and take it. Boys and girls, China is formidable, they are extraordinarily smart, and they are a major global power. There was always going to be a response to what we did in Panama, Venezuela, Iran. So you should not blame China for doing what they're doing. What the US has been doing for the last year has made things worse for China for sure, at least in the short term, between shipping and what we're doing there in the Panama Canal to take away their power and what we're doing to the price of oil because of our involvement in Iran, for China, that's a big ouch. And at this point, even if there wasn't political friction between the US And China, there's so much economic friction that they had to do something. And anyone in their position is going to use whatever leverage they have. The US Is using our leverage all over the place, and now China is just starting to do the same. That's how this game works. So never think this is my thing, man. I don't know if Trump actually believes it, I don't know. But never think that you have. You're the only one that has leverage. I'm going to do a quick diatribe, Drew, and make sure I don't go too far.

[Drew]

I got you.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Remember, civilization is what happens when weak people come together to protect themselves against the strong. So, dear America, we may really be the strongest country on planet Earth, but the weaker countries will come together, act as a unit, be surreptitious, do things behind our back, go underground, get sneaky with it. They will find a way to take down whoever is on top. If the person on top doesn't remember, I have to make things good for everybody. That I want to remain in a. It's a dangerous word to say out loud, but if you want them to remain in a subservient position, there's gotta be an incentive to do so. That incentive can be, I'm gonna let you live. But ooh, buddy, when you give people the reason to keep their head down because if you they don't, you're going to crush them. They are constantly looking for ways to fuck you up, up. And so if you want that knife in the back, keep running that game. So be very careful. Now my only question is, how far does China plan to push this and what's the real agenda? Now tinfoil hat is back on because I have a crazy hypothesis. I cannot find any credible voices that think I'm right. So full disclosure, this one's probably nutcase. But what if China is timing their retaliation to coincide with the war in Iran? Because by doing so they're going to magnify the punishing effect of simply delaying shipments. Because doing it now makes the painful effects of what they're doing spread to countries like Japan. Japan is extremely vulnerable right now due to how much they rely on oil coming through the Strait of Hormuz. 39% of the ships that China has detained, even though they're Panamanian flagged, they're owned by Japanese. Okay, so Japan and China have a long standing beef and the Japanese Prime Minister Takeichi has been very publicly supportive of Trump. So if you're giga brained IQ and you're Chinese and you're looking at this and you're like, hmm, I don't want to get involved in blowing things up in China. That's a bad move. As much as America annoys me, they really are powerful. So instead of confronting them head on, and I'm going to continue to be the voice of reason, I'm going to do things, wield power diplomatically. And so I'm just retaining ships. What's the problem? Not blowing them up, just retaining them. This is a very gentle reminder that we have leverage. And there's a concept that I think is very smart that applies from parenting to politics. And it goes like this. Minimum force necessary. The US currently is using a maximum force approach. It's going, it's already having massive consequences. It will continue to have massive consequences. Now this is not me saying that we might not have benefits on the other side of this from using maximum force. There might be benefits that come out of it and consequentialism matters to me a lot in terms of evaluating whether a move was wise or not. But it is way, way, way, way, way higher risk. So again, there are no credible analysts that agree with what I'm saying. But if that's part of what China's doing, I would not be the least surprised. So it's going to be interesting to watch out for what the second and third order consequences are here as China tries to move things back into their control, as they try to make sure that they show that they have dominance in this situation as well. Now, Secretary of State Marco Rubio called China's actions a direct threat to global supply chains and declared that the US Stands with Panama. Of course he's going to say that. I think he's right to say that. But nonetheless, China has cards to play, and they're obviously playing them.

[Drew]

It's one of those things, because you brought it up earlier, like China is coming. China is a formidable opponent. But when I hear that, I think of sports analogies. I'm a fan of every sport. So it's one of those things where if I'm the Lakers and I'm looking at the warriors on a run or the Nuggets now, currently the Thunder is doing good, or if I am the Seattle Seahawks and I'm looking at the Patriots just signed a bunch of people. Yes, you can look at your opponent, but you still got to get in the gym. You still have to work in your routes, you still got to learn your fundamentals. You still got to recruit a whole new generation of a whole new drive class to help your team get better. And it seems that America has been playing a lot of defense lately and we haven't necessarily been playing offense. I'm going to stop the flow of oil and to grow our oil locally. I'm going to like, I feel like we're trying to pull levers that are making other countries destabilize might be the wrong word, but are messing with economies everywhere else. But we haven't really done anything to kind of jumpstart the US Economy in a. In a similar fashion.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Let me see if I can change your mind. Yeah, the US Is being extraordinarily offensive. You just think their offensive moves won't yield the right play. If we were being defensive, we would just think, okay, how do I optimize for what we're doing? How do I make things a little bit better here at home? Now I. What I'm about to say is not me saying, hey, the Trump admin, because everybody thinks this is Trump, this is his administration, his advisors, the think tanks, all of that. I'm not saying that all of their moves are well advised, but I'm going to give you a frame of reference on them that I think is far closer to accurate, which is you have extraordinarily smart people that have built a path forward that is predicated on a base assumption that America is still the strongest military, that we are still the best, poised to win in a fractured, isolationist world, but that we have to press our advantage while we have it. And the way that we're pressing our advantage is by going, okay, who's our biggest rival? China. How do we weaken China? Energy? Because the one thing they're transitioning off of oil as rapidly as they can, we're not keeping up with them, not even close. So one thing that we can do is just try to, like, hurt them now while we can, by going in, getting rid of their cheap access to oil in Venezuela. Going in, getting rid of their cheap access to oil in Iran. Cool. That's gonna slow down China a little bit. They're gonna just keep transitioning away. But right now, it matters to them, so we're gonna try to trip them up there. Also, we've got this issue where we understand. Again, please, I'm not asking you to believe Trump understands this, although I think he understands it better than most people think. Think. But you've got all these investments coming out of the GCC countries now. A lot of Americans are just waking up to this reality, but this has been happening for a long time. And for. I remember years ago now, I bumped into Ray Dalio backstage in Dubai, and I was like, what the. I'm like, why are the two of us here in Dubai? Like, this is so weird. And so I was like, oh, shit, Ray. Like, it's so good to see you. And I was like, what are you doing here? He's like, bro, I. He didn't say bro. But you get. I'm in the Middle East a lot. And I was like, really? And he's like, you go where capital is treated the best. I'm very much paraphrasing Abu Dhabi is like the Mecca for capital now. I was like, whoa. So I start looking into all this dude, understatement. So the GCC understands one thing. Everybody's trying to move away from oil as fast as they can, but we're going to have years and years and years still of, like, just ungodly amounts of money flowing through. So we've got to transition that into investments. So we become this Mecca of capital. Trump administration knows that. So we're trying to slow down China, we're trying to speed up our own stuff by making sure that we capture the dollars from that. So far the US has captured like all of the investment dollars that they're trying to make. And so they're funding all of the big VC firms and private equity and all that stuff here in the US is basically just GCC funded. So oil is making that happen. So Trump, the admin, the advisors, they all get it. Go get those guys to invest. If you can get control of Iran's oil, do it. Remember, for all the people that think that Trump is just dancing to Israel's tune, you guys are fucking retarded. Trump has been talking about going in and taking Iran's oil since the 80s. He's on camera with Barbara Walters looking like a, a young man saying, why can't we just go into Iran and take their oil? He's like, let them have Iran, we want their oil, dude. It's the most Trumpian unhinged shit. But he was saying it in the 80s. This is a business guy that's like, no, no, no. Do you know how much money that shit kicks off? So all you have to do is trust him to be greedy. I don't think anybody's confused about whether Trump is greedy. So he's looking at Iran going, America's late stage empire, We've got a military, we can play our hand. How can I leverage the military to go in and get their shit? He does it in Venezuela lickety split. No shit. He goes into Iran, thinks it's going to happen. Like that doesn't. Oh. But nonetheless, like that's the play. You can have Iran, I don't give a shit. I want your fucking oil. Because if I can control where the investment dollars go from the GCC countries, if I can link all of the GCC countries up in this economic deal where now we're just like, baby, let the money flow, Abraham. Of course then we get that going. We've got these one assholes that continue to destabilize my money supply. If you think of it like that, your head's going to be in the right place. And so yeah, fuck em, I'm gonna send the military over, I'm gonna whoop that ass. You guys are gonna get the fucking line. You're gonna put your oil back on the market, you're gonna stop selling to China, you know, at discounted terms. This shit's gonna be on the market regular and now everybody in the world is like, better off. Oil goes down in price because you don't buy. That's going out discounted rates just to China. Remember, China's buying like 80, 90% of all of Iran's oil. So it's like the. All of a sudden is, is. Does Israel want the same thing? Yes, but they want it for different reasons.

[Drew]

Cool.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Israel's trying to take over all of the Middle East. Great, whatever. The fact that those things are aligned is blinding people to the fact that there is a really like basic bitch and answer about why Trump and his administration would want to go in, get this money for ourselves and be like, yeah, we're gonna capture all the investment dollars and we're going to lower the price of energy, just full stop. And by the way, I'm gonna Trump, I'm gonna control where all this fucking oil goes. And so now China, I'll sell it back to you, baby. Don't worry. But you're gonna buy at our prices. Oh, I didn't like that thing you did. Sorry. No more oil for you, dude. It's so good if America from a. America doesn't care about being an asshole. It's so good if America can control the oil via partnerships with the most of the GCC nations and then via force with Iran, the one people that you can't get on with the program. So it's like you don't have to go farther than the money to just be like, yup.

[Drew]

It's interesting. I will still call those defensive because it seems like you just. I'm using the equation of Trump is now trying to buy up all the last Blockbuster stores because the world is going away from oil.

[Tom Bilyeu]

That's why I'm saying you think it's a bad move. Fair, but it's very offensive. Maybe it doesn't matter.

[Drew]

Okay, okay. So. So in that, in both of those moves, we are hurting China, we're making China lose, quote, unquote, they're losing points.

[Tom Bilyeu]

We have a shot at hurting China. How this all plays out. The Chinese have a very famous saying about, oh, your son broke his leg. I'm so sorry. And then it's like, oh, well, maybe it works. And then the military comes and drafts all the boys and because his son had a broken leg, he didn't get drafted. So I don't know who this works out well for yet.

[Drew]

Copy. I guess what I'm saying with offensive. Defensive is there's certain things that we would do internally to make us win more.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Yes. I think your Argument is internal focus would make a lot more sense than external focus. Focus. That. That is a very reasonable argument with

[Drew]

all of these plays. The internal benefit would be oil prices and income coming in from oil. That's the. If all the things that you just said go.

[Tom Bilyeu]

If Trump pulled it off, it would be amazing for the average American. The average American would love life. If Trump could literally go around and be like, I'm going to take this from you. I'm going to take that from you. I'm going to take that from you. Empires that don't rack up debt are the greatest thing in the universe, if you can. This is morally repugnant, just to be very clear. Yeah, but an empire that goes and extracts the resources from other countries is the most economically benefited place on planet Earth. Look at what happened. Like, the thing you have to worry about is that you make your country so prosperous that you just inflate everything into madness. This is what happened to Spain. It's like the curse of gold. I forget what they call it, but like you, the Dutch curse, whatever, you can find yourself in a position where you become so prosperous it becomes a problem. But that would be your concern with him going and basically getting control of all investment dollars and the global oil supply, it'd be the greatest thing for Americans ever. But it's morally repugnant and the world's gonna fight back. And so now the odds become very low.

[Drew]

But it's just because we already have the investment dollars. So now us having more of an oil control, I don't see how it would trickle down to us. I feel like it will make oil prices lower, which they were two months ago, but maybe they could go lower Earth.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Well, so now you have to re complexify this and put it back in its full context. So part of this is I want to hurt China. Part of this is that Iran is destabilizing my Abraham Accords. So I'm not able to just get all this done. Part of it is I'm Trump and you tried to assassinate me. Whether they did or not doesn't matter. He believes they did. And so now he's just like, yeah, these kids. He wants to be on Mount Rushmore. If he can control all the oil, if he can make the Middle east peaceful, all of that, like that is Mount Rushmore shit. And it's just that good luck, like that's so unlikely to play out the way that you think it's going to. But let's take your argument and say, okay, listen, the average American's Life's gonna be way better off if you focus internally. Okay, please remember you have two options. The only way to focus exclusively internally, because there. There are only two paths, dear. Everybody that can hear my voice, understand, you only have two paths. Has path number one, austerity. Path number two, growth. Trump's just growth. He's a growth guy. He's never going to be like, yeah, let's just buckle down and do the hard thing. Nope, it's not in his personality. That's not who you elected. You elected the growth guy. So he's going to do all the growth shit. It's going to be super aggressive. Give me your oil. Stab, stab, boom, boom. Give me your shit. Like, that's the plan that he's going to run over here. You have to end fraud. Bonchons. You have to balance the budget. I know that's not gonna happen. You have to stop money printing every time something bad happens. You have to let some people go broke. Not gonna happen. So it's like, this one is so necessary but unrealistic that that only leaves this one. And you're not gonna be able to do that inwardly. You have to go get other people's shit. You have to go get Greenland. You've gotta take back over the Panama Canal. You've gotta get Venezuela's oil. Yeah, it just. I mean, that's a big part of the strategy, and you gotta win. AI. So. God, this is one of those where people are going to mistake me saying what is real for what I want to happen. I don't want this to happen. This is fucking terrible.

[Drew]

The. The word it is what it is. This California fraud story. Yeah, I know you've been wanting to get this one off, so let's break it down.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Dude, this. This is so wild. California has become an empire of fraud. California is the fifth largest economy on Earth. It collects the highest income taxes in the country. It spends over $300 billion a year. So how on God's green earth is it falling apart? A major new city journalism investigation. This is important. Please hold this one in your mind. Based on state audits, federal indictments, and data direct from local government, says that the answer is simple. The money is being stolen at a scale that is genuinely hard to believe. During COVID California processed so many unemployment claims that fraud specialist Haywood Talcove, who's the CEO of LexisNexis, the risk solutions, noted at one point, there were more people applying for unemployment benefits than there were total adults in the state. You're not going to Get a much clearer signal than that that you have a massive fraud problem. You have more people applying for unemployment than actually exist. Here's what happened going into Covid. California's unemployment fund was already in terrible trouble. There was only $3.3 billion in reserves. That is a minuscule amount for a state of California size. The U.S. department of labor had already ranked California dead last in the nation, calling them the least adequately funded of any unemployment program in the country. How could that be? How could we always be so low? Gonna hear fraud as a punchline through all of this. When the COVID fraud wave hit, California happily shipped all of their savings to the deserving and the fraudulent alike burning through their savings in just months. And then California said hold my beer and became the first state to tap emergency federal loans so they could keep paying all of the fraudulent claims. California promptly borrowed $20 billion from the federal government to make it just rain on the fraudsters. Now 22 other states borrowed too fair. California was not alone in that regard. But, and this is a very big but, every other state has since paid back their loans and most did it within two or three years. California, however, has not paid back a single dime of the principal. That means federal taxpayers are currently footing the bill for California's insane, over the top, unimaginably large fraud complex. And California's debt, by the way is still growing. In fact, California's unemployment insurance fund runs a more than $1 billion deficit every year all by itself. Now how could you not when fraud is this rampant? California's employers and I know firsthand now pay a federal payroll surcharge nearly nine times higher than businesses in debt free states. And P.S. that's the fallout from unemployment fraud. There's way more fraud in California than just the unemployment fraud fraud. Senior Officials at the U.S. department of Health and Human Services told City Journal that their initial estimate for the Medi Cal fraud rate is a full 25%. Medi Cal's budget is $197 billion. That means that an estimated $37.4 billion in fraud is leaking out Cal Doge's analysis puts the total five year exposure at $425 billion in fraud and waste. Now by quick math, that means that every one of California's 18.75 million taxpayers is responsible for paying $22,000 each just to cover the fraud. Just to cover the fraud. Newsom's response? He called the City Journal report information laundering, whatever the hell that's supposed to mean, and accused reporters of making things up that is asinine, given that the reporters cited state audits, federal indictments and congressional testimony. This problem is so much bigger than people realize. The fraud in California is gargantuan. We saw it in Minnesota. I bet we're going to see it in other states. America is being plundered. There is some idea that has taken hold that either no matter the cost, we've just got to get people in here that will vote for Democrats. And so no matter how blind of an eye we have to turn to the fraud, we will turn that blind eye or that something more nefarious, the fraud is somehow actually going back to some of the people that are involved. Kathy Hochul is being accused of that. We'll see if that ends up being true or not. These are just accusations at this point in New York, so we'll find out. But the fact that we have the level of fraud that we have and that people are not, not absolutely up in arms saying, listen, we've got to solve this problem. But instead, how did people respond when Elon Musk was saying that we had a fraud problem? They firebombed his Teslas, the dealerships. This, this is insane. The one thing that troubles me about this is that you'll notice that California has far more than 18.75 million people in it, but only 18.75 million people pay taxes. That's a big part of the problem. When roughly half of people pay no tax, they don't give a shit. Not their money. But it is so wild to me, if we weren't leaking all that money in tax, the things that we could do for infrastructure, the things that we could do with means tested programs would be incredible. We have really got to get people to understand fraudsters are not making your life better, they are making your life worse. They are not making things cheaper, they are making them more expensive. They are not making America more livable, they are making it worse. We have to be efficient with our money. You live in an inflationary environment precisely because we allow people to deficit spend. And when we allow them to deficit spend because of fraud, you're letting fraud make things more expensive. Even if it's not taking your taxes up up, it's still making everything more expensive and more out of reach. But if we cannot get people to be absolutely outraged by fraud, we are cooked.

[Drew]

And the irony of this is Gavin Newsom was up in the wf walking around kissing babies, hugging people. He's the leading presidential candidate for 2028 and his state is shit.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Dude, it's I don't.

[Drew]

I don't understand how, like, at least with, like, the haslav guy from HBO, like, he ruined HBO's company, but he made Discovery really good. So it was like, at least I came from. Like, you didn't know about Discovery. It was Shark Week. And now we have a whole slate. Okay, I believe you. I'll give you this job that you're not. That you didn't do well, but at least you have a track record of something that I can point to. It's like, Gavin Newsom is like, I've ruined this state. Now I should run the country. And I don't understand how we're like, yes, Gavin, please do, dude.

[Tom Bilyeu]

I really worry that my growing hypothesis that there is a huge contingent of Americans that want to see America plundered are behind this. That there is an attitude of nihilism, of hatred for the country that makes people just like, yeah, fraud away. And because so few people remember, roughly half of Americans don't pay tax. So now it's like, you put all that together, we're in bad shape.

[Drew]

And put on top of this that they want to increase the taxes in California. So how are you going to pay

[Tom Bilyeu]

for all the fraud if you don't?

[Drew]

Drew, you're right. We gotta.

[Tom Bilyeu]

But the worst thing is any money, the fraud percentage will just say the same. Same. And so it's not even like it will. Will start paying down some of the debt. It. It'll all just say the same. It's crazy. It's crazy.

[Drew]

What. What is the rub here? Because if this was a private company, this is embezzlement. People are going to jail.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Correct.

[Drew]

If this was a public company, ipo, embezzlement people are going to jail.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Correct.

[Drew]

When it's the government, it's because you

[Tom Bilyeu]

don't force them to balance their budget and they can print money. Money, dude. It really, unfortunately, really is just that simple. To get elected, you've got to give the people something. And that something is, I'm going to give you free. And unfortunately, I think it is just more and more likely to be true that a big part of the Democrat playbook is get. Remember, the Republicans have their own pathology. So I'm going to. Because we're talking about fraud, I'm going to map out the left. Please do not think in any way, shape or form that the right is doing this. Right. They are not. But the pathology on the left is, let's get as many immigrants into the country as we can. Let's give them a bunch of Free, let's get them to vote for that and then to keep us in power, they'll all vote for us. And it is unfortunately working really, really well. And this is going to be a big part of the collision and it will continue to work as long as. But budgets don't have to be balanced. So when you have California carrying a $20 billion deficit against the federal government, meaning federal taxpayers, but everybody can just print the money and so we just let them keep going. You're going to keep having this problem because there's no mechanism that forces them to stop. And then the problem is, is the K shaped economy gets worse and worse and worse and worse and worse. People actually look sideways at capitalists, which is fucking wild. Because this has nothing to do with capitalism. This has to do with regulatory capture, this has to do with fraud, this has to do with immigrants and preferential financial treatment where in the short run they look like they're a boon and then in the long run it's this complete drain and we money print to cover it all. Oh God, it's just a never ending prey to problems.

[Drew]

I gotta call out WF Finance and stocks because he's like, you give Democrats way too much shit because of California. And this is why the Democrats are going to lose. I don't care what election you cycle, long term Democrat is, the Democrat party is going to get dissolved. Because in this moment right now, you have Trump generationally fumbling the bag. You got him on corruption charges, you literally had him talk to the Easter lunch and say we can't fund daycare, we got wars to start. What are you talking about? He has so many things that you could just burn him if all you had to say was hey, we don't want fraud, we need to be north normal. Let's just take care of American citizens. That's all you have to say. It's very easy.

[Tom Bilyeu]

If you had a 90s Democrat drew

[Drew]

they, they would, they would sweep. They would do 90%. But what, what is it now to your point? It's like, no, Trump is so bad, we need to get more illegal. Like wait, Trump is so bad, we need. And it's like guys, you guys are missing the plot with these 1% views that you think the majority of the people care about. So it's like with this fraud thing, this is perfect. Whoever is running against Gavin Newsom, you need to to circle this entire news report and put bring this to the Democratic debate and say you want to run the country, this is what your state looks like. And he has no response. There's, there's no justification. It's zero percent. But no Democrat wants to do that because everybody wants to just fall in line and get power and just be the next one to kiss the ring. And it's, it's, it's transparent now. So that's what makes me sad.

[Tom Bilyeu]

You need to get your own applause button.

[Drew]

No, because I read a tweet the other day.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Give this man an applause.

[Drew]

No, I read a tweet the other day that said, if you're a left center, which I feel sorry for you because you're really just a libertarian. And I've been fighting against libertarianism my entire life and I feel like I'm a libertarian and I didn't even know when that happened. Y' all made me a libertarian and I talk about them all the time. How did this happen? I'm politically homeless.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Have you seen the.

[Drew]

I'm politically.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Oh, God. The Shane Gillis thing, like studying history just means that you're a Republican, like in. Oh, God, what do you call it? Like the. A slow motion Republican. Republican in development. Something somebody in chat's gonna remember. But it's an absolutely hilarious bit. He's like, your dad didn't wake up one day and decided he just wanted to be an. About everything. Yes, the. If you're left leaning, then this moment right now is the thing that is turning you into a libertarian. Although honestly, from what I've looked at with libertarianism, like Strictly Sleep, it's not the play.

[Drew]

That's what I mean. Like, there's so. I talk so much junk about that ideology too, because that's not the solution either. But it's just the left, what it really comes down to is the left wants to get as big of a government as possible to enrich the fraud themselves. The right wants to get as small as government as possible to enrich themselves by exploiting other people. And I feel like those are the two things where it's like, I don't have to pay you nothing. There's no minimum wage. If you want to work, go work. If you don't want to work, sorry, but I got it already. Figure it out. Out. And then the left is like, we'll take care of you, Just give me all your money.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Yeah. And.

[Drew]

But either way, somebody's trying to exploit me. And I just.

[Tom Bilyeu]

It is getting weird. Late stage Empire is far less enjoyable. The 90s were dope, y'.

[Drew]

All.

[Tom Bilyeu]

I'm just going to tell you right now, the 80s and 90s were the shit it was fun.

[Drew]

Politically homeless might be the merch line. That might be it. Okay, we got to get to the bitcoin crypto scare that's happening now. Okay. I understand that Ethereum is insider trading. They're trying to boost their coin price as much as they can. But we do have to be very honest that just like with AI, AI is putting white collar jobs on notice. Quantum is putting the entire Internet on notice. Like this whole, I have an exclamation point in my password, so I'm good now. That's all going away. What do we need to prepare about what's happening with this quantum thing and kind of give us a head on that?

[Tom Bilyeu]

Yeah. So what started all this is Google just reset the doomsday clock on crypto. A couple of days ago, Google's Quantum AI team dropped a white paper. That should be a wake up call and quite frankly, a call to action. To all my brothers and sisters in the crypto world, the finding was pretty straightforward. Breaking cryptos, sorry, breaking Bitcoin's encryption doesn't require the 10 million qubits that researchers previously estimated. Google's new math puts it at roughly 500,000. Now that is a 20 fold reduction. And if researchers can build a quantum computer at that scale, they would be able to crack bitcoin transaction in approximately nine minutes. Now, a lot of ifs around there, but nonetheless, Quantum does seem to continue to make improvements on a pretty steady timescale. So people need to snap out of whatever stupor they're in. Bitcoin right now takes about 10 minutes to confirm a block. So if they can crack it in nine minutes, nine is less than 10. So Quantum hackers would get the win here, boys and girls. Now, Google confirmed it's not just Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, all of them would be vulnerable. Google set a 2029 deadline for migration to post quantum cryptography, a date that's ahead of the NSA's 2031 target and the broader US government's 2035 benchmark. So people are going to have to like, take some smelling salts, get moving a little bit faster. Google is basically just trying to warn people, Listen, the window is shorter than anyone thought that it was. So take action. Now, if you're in crypto like I am, the good news is that the fix already exists. So post quantum encryption has been in the works for a while, but blockchains are decentralized, so there's no one that can just, you know, flip a switch. It is the decentralization thing has its Pluses and minuses, but it ultimately becomes like an extreme cat herding endeavor. So it could be a little bit trickier than most people are expecting. Getting every network wallet, every protocol to upgrade on time is going to be a coordination problem that the crypto community is going to have to solve if they want to avoid calamity. So right now, this is not something that I'm losing sleep over. I'm probably far more excited and intrigued by how well quantum computing is going. Remember, quantum computing basically says this. Oh, you live in the, in the multiverse. The multiverse is real and we can prove it by doing a bunch of math that requires the multiverse to be real. For us to do the math this quickly, it's like, what? So that's pretty cool. And the fact that they're actually able to quantum entangle particles in real life and that's what they mean by getting these qubits, that's crazy. So it's really exciting. That's super thrilling. I'm going to trust that Michael Saylor has enough on the line that he's going to make sure that bitcoin gets across the line. So, yeah, I'm not losing sleep over this one yet. I have a feeling that everybody's incentivized to get this across the line. We sell plenty of time to do so. And so while it may be hurting cats, it's all cats that smell the same food and are running towards it. So should be relatively straightforward. We'll keep reporting on it in case people start doing something stupid. But on this one, I would say get far more excited about the reality of quantum computing coming and the fact that you live in the fucking multiverse. That's pretty cool. Yeah, I'm back to why something instead of nothing. It's wild, but nonetheless, the world is not what you think it is, boys and girls.

[Drew]

There was a report too, that Satoshi already optimized for it or brought this up too. So it is.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Well, I'm sure I don't know enough about the story where you're headed with that, but I'll say they didn't deploy it, so we still do have whatever problem we have. But would Satoshi have seen this coming? Probably. I mean, anybody can think about what happens when computers get so powerful that this, you know, it doesn't work anymore and you've got to upgrade it. So there is a path to doing so. But I don't know back when this was created how real quantum was.

[Drew]

Yeah, that's exactly what he said. It says, suggesting if it happens gradually, we can transition. So I mean, true, if quantum pops up like AI did, where it's like we didn't hear about it, whispers, murmurs and then now everybody has ChatGPT, then yes, this will be a bigger risk. But to your point, there's so many things in the level, somebody even in chat said the federal government is going to get hacked way before people start trying to mine your bitcoin keys.

[Tom Bilyeu]

It's very, very true. And also I'll remind everybody right now, quantum computers have to be cooled to like near 00. So this is not a thing that like homeboy terrorist is just gonna have in his house. So you're gonna have plenty of time. But I would say it would really damage the confidence of the crypto market if even Google was like, okay, this thing can do it. We're not going to, but it could. Like that would not make people feel good. So I highly encourage them to get it done before it's actually possible. Cause right now it's still just not possible. Possible.

[Drew]

Yeah, we shall see. Reminder, in this situation, Bitcoin has kind of been sideways with everything that's been going on. Some people are still calling it epine coin after the release. Do you have any change of conviction in your bitcoin analysis or is it still, you know, a long term asset plan?

[Tom Bilyeu]

Yeah, for me, anything that you're looking at that isn't measured in years by way of fluctuation, I don't get hysterical about at all. Either the world is becoming more digital or it's not. Money is one of the most obvious things to digitize. Guys wanting the government to have the least amount of control, they can still control it, but it's harder. All of those things are good things. Being able to dip with my money quickly and. But right now, honestly, it's just another tech stock. So it's like, yep, it's a dope tech stock. Cool. Love it. It has utility. Even if people say that it has no underlying value, which makes me laugh my ass off, given that those same people probably hold a bunch in gold. And they certainly won't debate that for whatever 5,000 years, gold has been a thing with essentially no underlying value other than it's pretty. Silver has way more underlying value than gold does. Same with copper. But those things don't have the value that gold has. Why? Because people just don't agree that that's where we store our wealth. We agree that we store our wealth in gold. And so if people agree that we store our wealth in bitcoin then that's what we do. And I really believe that as people build a mental model of the world that's far more digital. It's just normal.

[Drew]

Yes. And then last in our economic bucket. I have questions for Mr. Beast. That was Elizabeth Warren.

[Tom Bilyeu]

God, I hate politicians, man. I'm really like starting to develop a disdain.

[Drew]

What's the rub?

[Tom Bilyeu]

That they don't have our best interests in heart. They are uppity self righteous people that think that they know best and do not seem to act in the interest of the people. And yeah, so anyway, that's probably a way overreaction. I have questions for Mr. Beast but I've looked into this enough to know where this is headed. There's a weird narrative about Mr. Beast that like he's a fraudster and like he's doing all this stuff and he's a bad guy. I just don't understand that take at all.

[Drew]

He's dead behind the eyes.

[Tom Bilyeu]

I think he is one of the most impressive entrepreneurs of his generation. I think that he is somebody that really was like hurt by the criticism that he was being cynical by doing some of the philanthropy. So was like okay, let me like go look at my chocolate supply chain and see like if I can do something about the child slave aspect or child exploitation aspects of it and it's actually doing something. And so people don't have that same energy for Cadbury. Like I can't understand like what like all these guys, Hershey's have been taking advantage of the same thing for decades and decades and decades and everyone's just like okay, but Mr. Beast does it and people freak out. I don't know. That one's weird to me. So. But I'm sure that my growing disdain for politicians not. I'm sure I know my growing disdain for politicians has to do with fraud, has to do with tax. Has to do with importing aliens in order to just get more power. It's just all so fucking cynical. And I'm projecting onto the Mr. B saying maybe there really is something there but what he's doing. So I didn't know that they had this fintech that was aimed at kids. You definitely need regulations around that. Aggressive regulations. But do I think that she has good intentions? No.

[Drew]

To, to your point. What I saw from it was that Mr. Beast is trying to increase financial literacy for children since he has the hearts and minds of children now. Now it's a natural transition. You bought my cookies or candy bars. You bought my lunchable substitutions. Now if I could Teach you how to be financially responsible. It's the next. Yeah.

[Tom Bilyeu]

And it look it's. He's only going to do it if it's good business. But it's like right now I would need to look more into how it operates and all that. You want to make sure that it's not exploitative and you want to make sure that it's not just an easy way for kids to gamble on crypto. And there, there are plenty of things you want to make sure that it's not doing. But kids having access to their money, kids being able to understand how money works, like none of that stuff is bad. Now something that has parental controls is probably a very good idea. You don't want kids to be able to get themselves in trouble. You certainly don't want them doing things like futures trading where you can have a negative balance.

[Drew]

But I don't think Mr. Beast is starting a futures trading company or anything.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Can see why people get nervous about stuff like that. So like I understand the realities of crypto are very different than the positive sides of it. So the realities of crypto they. They do bring out a what I'll call cultural gambling. And so when you put people in a position where you're inflating their money away and you're incentivizing them to gamble and then you facilitate that gamble and take advantage of it. There is something that I get why people would be unnerved by that. That so I would as a parent for sure I'm not a parent but I would understand why a parent would be like yo, I need to make sure that there are some tight restrictions around this that I can control. I totally get that. And I really like people don't take seriously enough that something that an adult can do and there's no meaningful adverse effects. It's very different than with kids. And because of the way that the brain develops develops. Part of the reason that I'm developing Kaizen the way that I'm developing it is Kaizen is specifically like as a developer I'm well aware of dopamine loops and one of the things that I'm trying to make sure that the game has a foundation even if this means that the game doesn't sell as well is that it has a Minecraft like foundation where you have to have your own agendas. You've got to like decide how you want to do something. It's extremely open ended. And that way it's in trying to get kids to have to come up with what am I going to do today that's going to be fun. Like how do I really push this and make this enjoyable? It's one of the things that I think makes Minecraft so brilliant is when I was a kid, I used to walk around my front yard wearing a swim mask and pretend that I was underwater. But I really think those kind of things are good for the brain, like getting bored and having to think for yourself, I think are incredibly powerful things. So. So anyway, that's a lot of words around. I hope that Mr. Beast is responsible. I think there are ways to do fintech for kids that I could get behind and there are ways to do it that I think could be problematic. What I don't like in Elizabeth's Warren, Elizabeth Warren's reaction is this default assumption that they're bad, that she needs to control it, that politicians know best and that anybody that's running a business is bad. And I've just seen that reaction so many times and I think it's patently ridiculous. You can. Politicians go wrong as often, if not more often than entrepreneurs. And entrepreneurs at least have the reality of the market.

[Drew]

Yeah. Iranian media is reporting that the US pilot is in custody. It was from like Iranian media, like underscore. So grain of salt. Grain of salt. But we will update you guys on Monday if we hear anything. Is it just the one? Because there were two, I think in the plane. Yeah, yeah, I seen it said US pilot, singular. So. So I am not sure about that. So we shall look out for it. But yep, that's it. Happy Good Fridays Everybody. Happy Sunday.

[Tom Bilyeu]

Zero to Founder AI Masterclass Thursday, April 9th at 1pm I hope you guys will join me. Super free. It's very popular class. You'll learn how to use AI to build a business. Free. Free, free. All right guys, love you guys so much. Have a wonderful weekend. Happy Good Friday and we'll see you on Monday. Peace. Let's talk about a pattern that is is guaranteed to be killing your progress. You know what you need to do? You need consistent nutrition. We all do. You need vitamins, probiotics, greens. We all know that we should be doing more of it. When your morning gets chaotic, you skip it. When you travel, you skip it. When your routine breaks, everything tends to break. And that inconsistency compounds against you every single day. AG1 is designed to solve the execution problem. One scoop 8 ounces of water and you're done. Done. You're getting 75 plus ingredients, vitamins and minerals, pre and probiotics, nutrient dense superfoods, everything that used to require six seven different supplements, and perfect planning now happens in one drink that takes about 30 seconds to make. Right now, AG1 is giving you $87 worth of free gifts with your first subscription. You get a welcome kit, travel packs, vitamin D3 plus K2 and flavor samples. Samples? Click the link in the show notes or visit drinkag1.comimpact to claim this offer.