Impact Theory with Tom Bilyeu

Episode: How Money Printing, Inflation, and AI Will Reshape Wealth and Employment

Guest: Arthur Hayes
Date: January 8, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode features Arthur Hayes, pioneering crypto investor and former BitMEX CEO, sitting down with Tom Bilyeu to dissect the intersection of money printing, inflation, and AI—and how these forces are reshaping wealth, employment, and society at large. The conversation is a candid, at times provocative, exploration of why the average citizen feels left behind, what’s broken in today’s economic and social contracts, and what the near-future holds as AI accelerates automation and economic displacement.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The “K-Shaped” Economy and Why People Feel Left Behind

Timestamps: 02:08 – 04:21

• Arthur Hayes charts the reality of a "K-shaped" U.S. economy where a small minority thrives while the majority feels increasingly squeezed.
• Inflation is the core culprit. Official statistics may claim "decelerating" inflation, but everyday people care about the price level—what things actually cost compared to their stagnant incomes.
• Widespread disillusionment arises not just from cost-of-living issues, but from social comparison on platforms where influencers flaunt wealth.
• Quote [03:45 – Arthur Hayes]:

  “I look on social media and I see all the influencers are partying like it's 1999, but I'm broke as fuck and I'm working 12 jobs and I'm barely treading water.”

2. The Real Root Cause: Endless Money Printing

Timestamps: 04:21 – 06:16

• Hayes makes it clear that repeated money printing by governments underpins the current economic malaise. Governments prefer printing to raising unpopular taxes.
• Those who own assets benefit; those living off wages are left behind.
• Declining affordability is reflected everywhere—later home purchases, fewer kids, and rising household insecurity.
• Quote [05:03 – Arthur Hayes]:

  “If you don't own financial assets, then you're screwed essentially. And that compounds if you've been doing this since the end of World War II...”

3. Political Incentives: Why Austerity Never Wins

Timestamps: 07:33 – 10:12

• Hayes traces the reluctance to administer economic “hard medicine” back to the Great Depression, drawing a parallel to today’s politicians.
• No leader (in any system—democratic or autocratic) wants to preside over mass unemployment, so the cycle of printing and propping up continues.
• The longer the avoidance, the more intractable the problem becomes.
• Quote [09:16 – Arthur Hayes]:

  “Nobody wants to be the politician that stands up and says, okay...we're going to stop it right now, no more credit.”

Tom’s vivid analogy:

• [10:12] “It's like a parent whose 14-year-old wakes up with a hangover, and instead of offering help, just hands them more vodka. It pushes off the pain, but the bill always comes due.”

4. Is There Any Escape? Enter AI and the Promise of Abundance

Timestamps: 12:07 – 15:28

• Hayes and Tom discuss whether technology, especially AI, could unlock such massive productivity gains that debt becomes irrelevant.
• AI and robotics could effectively drive the cost of labor and intelligence toward zero—potentially saving the debt-based system, but only for those who control the means of AI production.
• Huge risks emerge: What happens when well-paid white-collar jobs are wiped out first? What if AI-generated abundance is not shared?

Memorable thought [12:57 – Arthur Hayes]:

“The most vulnerable people to AI are those who make the most money today…When you fire those people first because that's the easiest thing to replace in the first iteration of AI and they can't pay their bills, what happens to the entire system?”

5. The Real Societal Risk: Displacement Driven by AI

Timestamps: 17:55 – 24:12

• Hayes predicts that the economic disruption from AI—especially among the highly paid knowledge class—will arrive faster and be more impactful than any “debt doom loop”.
• He foresees a coming crisis of meaning and purpose as an accelerating share of traditional white-collar jobs evaporate.
• Tom worries about a coming purpose and meaning crisis, particularly in the transition to a “post-scarcity” world:
  Quote [20:45 – Tom Bilyeu]:

  “You're going to take a system that's economically fragile…and make it psychologically fragile.”

6. Social and Political Responses: Hyper-Gambling and the Lure of Socialism

Timestamps: 24:12 – 27:29

• The response of displaced and disillusioned workers? A surge in hyper-gambling behaviors (meme stocks, crypto, sports betting) and a shift toward more left-leaning/pro-socialist policies.

• Quote [25:00 – Tom Bilyeu]:

  “The way that people are responding to ‘I can't make ends meet’ is hyper-gambling…The only way to intelligently understand the markets is to think of them as gambling.”

• Hayes sees a new era of universal basic income, stimulus, and wealth redistribution as politicians continue to avoid deeper reform.

• Quote [26:17 – Arthur Hayes]:

  “Instead of dealing with the hard conversation with society of what it is to be a productive human…we're going to just print a bunch of money to paper over the problem.”

7. No More "China Effect"; Why the '80s & '90s Can't Repeat

Timestamps: 27:29 – 30:46

• Margaret Thatcher could impose austerity in the 1980s because China was entering the global economy—providing cheap labor and products, keeping inflation in check. That option is gone.
• No comparable "next China" exists; even the rise of India won’t have the same effect because manufacturing is now about robots, not cheap human labor.
• Quote [29:23 – Arthur Hayes]:

  “It's not a story about adding a bunch of low cost workers. It's how many robots per 100,000 people do you have installed?”

8. AI as Investor: What Happens When Algorithms Rule the Market?

Timestamps: 30:46 – 35:45

• Tom ponders what happens when AI becomes the best trader/investor—will it supercharge inequality?
• Hayes downplays the disruption; AI trading dominance is already here via firms like Citadel, and individual day traders have long been outgunned.
• The likely outcome: further consolidation of profit flows to bigger players & algorithms, not a new risk but a continuation of a trend.
• Quote [34:35 – Arthur Hayes]:

  “Instead of Ken Griffin making $16 billion a year, it's some AI model. Do we care?”

9. Leverage, Trading, and the Perils of the Retail Gambler

Timestamps: 40:29 – 46:48

• Leverage remains more accessible and gamified than ever, with the proliferation of perpetual swaps and new financial products—many invented by Hayes himself.
• Most retail traders lose money because they treat markets like a part-time casino instead of a rigorous profession.
• To win with leverage, one must know every nuance of the product and the exchange’s rules—a bar almost no retail trader meets.
• Quote [45:30 – Arthur Hayes]:

  “You should never, ever be liquidated as a trader. That just means you didn't understand what it is you're trading and you didn't size your position correctly.”

10. What Should the Average Person Do? The Power of Time, Compounding, and Political Agency

Timestamps: 46:56 – 49:14

• Hayes' advice: skip leverage; focus on the basics—invest early, be patient, let compounding work for you. Even modest returns multiply powerfully over time.

• Understand that the game is stacked—but also realize the average person can change the rules, not just by market participation but through political activism.

• Quote [47:27 – Arthur Hayes]:

  “Compound interest rate and time are your friends if you use it that way and they work against you if you use aggressive amounts of leverage and you're impatient.”

• Tom voices skepticism about elections solving these fundamental problems, noting both parties indulge the same fiscal irresponsibility for popular support.

11. What Happens Under Trump or Other Populists?

Timestamps: 50:10 – 54:13

• Both right-wing and left-wing populists, in practice, promise “free stuff” and aim to kickstart growth through aggressive stimulus—even if it is inflationary.
• Under Trump (or any mainstream American leader), the U.S. will likely repeat policies of the COVID era: stimulate aggressively, accept higher inflation, and hope asset owners benefit.
• Quote [51:26 – Arthur Hayes]:

  “Trump is a non-ideological politician…He was the first president to hand out money directly to every household at 200 million households. No other president has done that before.”

Notable Quotes

| Time | Speaker | Quote/Context | |--------|--------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 03:45 | Arthur Hayes | “I see all the influencers… but I'm broke as fuck and I'm working 12 jobs…” | | 05:03 | Arthur Hayes | “If you don't own financial assets, then you're screwed essentially…” | | 09:16 | Arthur Hayes | “Nobody wants to be the politician that stands up and says… no more credit.” | | 12:57 | Arthur Hayes | “The most vulnerable people to AI are those who make the most money today…” | | 20:45 | Tom Bilyeu | “You're going to take a system that's economically fragile… and make it psychologically fragile.” | | 25:00 | Tom Bilyeu | “The only way to intelligently understand the markets is to think of them as gambling.” | | 29:23 | Arthur Hayes | “It's how many robots per 100,000 people do you have installed?” | | 34:35 | Arthur Hayes | “Instead of Ken Griffin making $16 billion a year, it's some AI model. Do we care?” | | 45:30 | Arthur Hayes | “You should never, ever be liquidated as a trader. That just means you didn't understand what it is you're trading…” | | 47:27 | Arthur Hayes | “Compound interest rate and time are your friends if you use it that way…” | | 51:26 | Arthur Hayes | “Trump is a non-ideological politician… He was the first president to hand out money directly to every household…” |

Memorable Moments & Takeaways

• Tom’s vodka/hangover analogy: poignantly illustrates the cycle of economic avoidance (10:12).
• Hayes’ blunt emphasis on learning the rules of any financial game, or simply staying away from leverage entirely (43:54; 45:30).
• Agreement that both major US political options have converged into similar economic patterns—rhetoric may differ, but action is the same: print money, promise prosperity, accept inflation.

Conclusion

Arthur Hayes delivers a diagnosis both sobering and urgent: inflation and inequality are the outcomes of decades of political expediency and money printing. AI, far from saving most, may disrupt the old order even faster—starting with the highly paid knowledge class. The only defense for the average person? Deepen your financial literacy, invest early and patiently, and realize that true social transformation may depend as much on political activism as asset ownership.

If you want to understand the real levers of our economic moment and where AI may take us next, this is an essential listen.