Impact Theory Podcast Summary

Episode Title:
Mating Crisis: Why The Rate Of Single Men Looking For Dates Has Declined | William Costello PT 1

Host: Tom Bilyeu
Guest: William Costello (evolutionary psychologist, University of Texas, Austin; student of Dr. David Buss)
Release Date: February 28, 2026
Main Theme: The roots, evolution, and repercussions of the "mating crisis"—rapidly shifting sex and relationship dynamics amidst changing societal and evolutionary backdrops.

Episode Overview

Tom Bilyeu and evolutionary psychologist William Costello dive into data and theory around the so-called “mating crisis,” marked by increasing sexlessness, changing relationship expectations, and growing dissatisfaction among both men and women in the modern dating market. They explore why traditional relationship norms are breaking down, the role of hypergamy, how technological and cultural changes are creating an unprecedented evolutionary mismatch, and what these trends mean for the future of families, fulfillment, and society.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Sexlessness and the Mating Crisis

• Stats & Shifts in Sexlessness [02:45 – 06:15]:
  • Sexlessness among young men had tripled up to 2018 but recent data suggest it's arguably reversed; now, young women are as or more likely to experience sexlessness, possibly due to greater pandemic-era risk aversion.
  • "Upwards of 30% of men just simply aren't even seeking romantic relations at all, even for casual sex. They're just backing out completely."
    — William Costello [05:25]
  • Having sex once in a year is not a sufficient indicator of the actual crisis; rather, it's about dissatisfaction and disconnection on both sides.

2. Defining the Modern Mating Crisis

• Beyond Simple Sexlessness [06:15 – 14:15]:

  • Term originates from Dr. David Buss's work — highlighting a growing imbalance in educational attainment and "eligible" partners.
  • Women now surpass men in education and career attainment ("Pink Campus" phenomenon), intensifying hypergamous preferences (seeking equal/higher status mates).
  • Scarcity of eligible men drives competition; top-tier men less willing to commit as scarcity increases their value.

• Notable quote:

  • "When you have a skew in a mating market like that... those few men at the top that women are interested in are less willing to commit to long-term mating because they're the scarcity and it becomes a problem."
    — William Costello [07:24]

3. Hypergamy in the Modern Era

• Women "Mating Down" and its Challenges [09:00 – 12:10]:

  • Some evidence of women marrying men with less education/income, but this often comes with increased relationship conflict: higher infidelity, psychological distress, and intimate partner violence.
  • Costello explains two mate retention strategies (benefit provisioning and cost infliction), with the latter increasingly documented in relationships where women out-earn or out-achieve their partners.

• Memorable example:

  • "There was a huge study done on 27 EU countries... that the woman earning more or being higher educated than her partner was a massive risk factor for all types of intimate partner violence."
    — William Costello [10:17]

4. Evolutionary Mismatch & The Feminization of Culture

• Shifting Roles and Values [13:00 – 17:00]:

  • Women don’t need to depend on men for protection or provision as before—state & economy have supplanted these male roles, potentially diminishing incentives to pair up.
  • Culturally, masculinity is de-emphasized and "boss bitch" ambition is celebrated for women; men are encouraged to be less dominant.
  • Tom: "You're masculinizing women, you're feminizing men, and now you're asking them to come together, all while an artificial womb feels like it's six weeks away. It's like, dude, this feels like a recipe for disaster." [16:14]

• Mother Costello’s Wisdom [18:00 – 19:55]:

  • Costello shares his mother's advice: "You can have it all, but not at the same time." He stresses the need for women to realistically time career and family ambitions, referencing the biological clock.

5. The Gender Pay Gap—A Motherhood Penalty

• Career Trajectories & Parenthood [22:08 – 24:20]:
  • Women earn more than men until 29, when career breaks for motherhood slow their progress ("motherhood penalty").
  • Societal pressures to “have it all” peak just as major life decisions on career and family collide.

6. Cynicism & The Self-aware Mating Market

• Transparency Breeds Cynicism [27:00 – 31:00]:
  • Now that mating strategies are openly discussed (memes, books, advice), intentions seem manipulative, and authenticity is questioned.
  • Tom: "Once there's like websites, memes, it's so obvious now it's like, am I being manipulated because somebody's making themselves more attractive to me?" [28:55]
  • Even self-improvement narratives (e.g., Jordan Peterson’s advice) face backlash as “misogynistic” if linked to dating success.

7. The High Stakes of Mating Market Dynamics

• Online Dating & Resource Scarcity [38:11 – 44:44]:

  • Women’s filtering for rare traits (height, income) creates fierce scarcity; dating apps reduce people to rigid checklists.
  • Shocking stat: "If women set their height preferences to six foot or over in America, they're reducing their mating pool down to just 18% of men. If they set it to 6 foot 3 and over, they're reducing it down to just 3% of men."
    — William Costello [41:20]
  • The “female delusion calculator” meme demonstrates the unrealistic expectations driving dissatisfaction.

• Foodie Calls & Male Resentment [37:26 – 38:15]:

  • 33% of women admit to going on dates just for a meal (no romantic interest): "You'd think foodie calls are a real thing. Yeah. And you can imagine this drives a frustrated young man on the dating scene crazy..."
    — William Costello [37:50]

8. Prescriptions, Cautions, Solutions?

• Advice for Men & Women [44:16 – 49:20]:

  • For men: Get aspirational, accept social reality, push yourself ("You're not going to slow women down. That train has run away. And nor should we." — William Costello [18:57])
  • For women: Realistically time pursuit of “having it all”; broader cultural recognition that socially-championed female ambition and delayed motherhood has real trade-offs.

• Status as Socially Contingent [46:11 – 48:29]:

  • Tom & Costello discuss whether culture could reassign status—could being an involved father become high-status? Data suggest most women don’t desire reversal of traditional roles.

9. Evolved Sex Differences & Fulfillment

• Evolutionary Underpinnings [71:32 – 74:11]:

  • Women more “people-oriented,” men more “thing-oriented.”
  • Dramatic, robust differences in sexual psychology: "the most boring replication in all of psychology now," per Dr. Buss, that men seek more sexual variety; the effect size is huge (comparable to sex differences in upper body strength).

• Fulfillment & Childlessness [66:20 – 70:51]:

  • 80% of childless women are involuntarily so.
  • Tom: "If you don't work hard, none of this, you just won't feel what you want to. You won't feel fulfilled even if you do all the following things, and I'm about to say, if you don't work hard to get there, it just doesn't work psychologically." [66:34]
  • Both agree: parenthood has functioned as the most reliable evolutionary “meaning-making mechanism.”

10. Monogamy vs. Polygamy: Evolution and Culture

• Polygyny, Surplus Men, & Societal Stability [74:20 – 88:11]:
  • In most of human history, polygyny (one man, multiple wives) dominated; led to high male mortality and a surplus of unpartnered men (“young male syndrome”).
  • The rise of monogamy as a dominant cultural norm facilitated greater societal stability. Jordan Peterson faces backlash for advocating "culturally enforced monogamy"; critics misinterpret this as advocating oppression, but literature supports its necessity for flourishing societies.
  • Tom: "The tragedy of the commons is real—people are going to, if they know somebody's going to go take that resource, they're going to take. Just it is what it is." [90:34]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Tom Bilyeu [16:14]:
  "You're masculinizing women, you're feminizing men, and now you're asking them to come together, all while an artificial womb feels like it's six weeks away. It's like, dude, this feels like a recipe for disaster."

• William Costello [10:17]:
  "[A study] showed that the woman earning more or being higher educated than her partner was a massive risk factor for all types of intimate partner violence... It makes sense from an evolutionary point of view because in evolutionary psychology we have something called mate retention strategies."

• Tom Bilyeu [28:55]:
  "Once there's like websites, memes, it's so obvious now it's like, am I being manipulated because somebody's making themselves more attractive to me? It's just—the tactics are so visible that cynicism seems the only outcome."

• William Costello [41:20]:
  "If women set their height preferences to six foot or over in America, they're reducing their mating pool down to just 18% of men... [for] 6 foot 3 and over, just 3%."

• Tom Bilyeu [66:34]:
  "If you don't work hard, none of this... you won't feel fulfilled, even if you do all the following things... There’s a recipe... work hard, gain useful skills, serve yourself and the group, and that’s where meaning comes from."

• William Costello [75:59]:
  "So it's estimated that at that time, 17 women reproduced for every one man... what is postulated to happened is that this coincides with the onset of agriculture, which... allowed the most high-status male in a society to stockpile resources."

• Tom Bilyeu [92:19]:
  "You're not going to change human nature. We're rapidly changing cultures faster than we can keep up... Denying our evolved nature is going to get us nowhere."

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [02:45] – Sexlessness trends and reversal post-pandemic
• [06:15] – Origin & definition of “mating crisis”
• [09:00] – Hypergamy, “mating down,” and relationship fallout
• [13:00] – Diminishing need for male protection/provision
• [18:00] – Mother Costello’s advice: “You can have it all, but not at the same time.”
• [22:08] – Gender pay gap as a motherhood penalty
• [27:00] – Cynicism, manipulation, and the self-aware sexual marketplace
• [37:26] – “Foodie calls” and male resentment
• [41:20] – Dating app filtering and shrinking the pool
• [44:16] – Cultural prescriptions for men and women
• [46:11] – Status and stay-at-home dads
• [66:20] – Fulfillment, childlessness, and meaning
• [71:32] – Evolved sex differences in psychology
• [74:20] – History of polygyny and monogamy
• [82:23] – War as a mating strategy
• [92:19] – Evolutionary mismatch and refusing to deny human nature

Closing Thoughts

The episode leaves the central question unresolved: how do we steer away from cultural and evolutionary dead-ends when technological and social disruptions are outpacing adaptation? Both Tom and William diagnose the issues—a core evolutionary mismatch, inability to find meaning, loss of proven meaning-making tools (e.g., parenthood), and mounting skepticism about society’s existing solutions. They argue that honest, data-driven self-understanding is the only way forward—but fear that cynicism, resistance, and ideological backlash will keep society standing at (or tumbling over) the precipice.